ENGR 202

Sustainable Development and

Environmental Stewardship

Chapter 12

Global warming and the Greenhouse Effect

12.1.1 GHG Emissions and Atmospheric Change

Increasing emissions of carbon dioxide

and other greenhouse gases (CH4, N2O,
CFC, etc) from human activities are
believed to be producing a global warming
trend whose consequences could be
disruptive, and potentially catastrophic,
for people and the environment.
12.1.1 GHG Emissions and Atmospheric Change
GHG trend
12.1.2 The Global Climate System

Climate vs. Weather

• Climate refers to the average weather conditions of a place over a long period of time.
• Weather, on the other hand, refers to the day-to-day conditions of earth’s atmosphere at a
particular place and time. Weather can be glorious or devastating.
• Climate is a long term average of weather (over at least 30 years). It is shaped by global forces
that alter the energy balance in the atmosphere such as changes in the sun, tilt of the earth’s
axis, amount of sunlight the earth reflects back to space, and concentration of greenhouse gases
in the atmosphere.
• Weather is what the atmosphere does in the short term, hour-to-hour and day-to-day. Weather
is chaotic, which means even a microscopic disturbance can lead to large- scale changes.
• The average weather over the course of years reveals a pattern. That pattern is climate and is
much more predictable than our everyday weather.
12.1.3 Chapter Overview
12.2 Fundamentals of the greenhouse effect
12.2.1 The Nature of Radiative Energy
Stefan–Boltzmann law
Maximum rate of energy radiated by a body
Qmax = σ AT4
Qmax – maximum rate of energy radiated (watts)
σ – Stefan–Boltzmann constant (5.67×10-8 W/m2-K4) A – Area (m2)
T – absolute temperature of the body (K)

Total rate of heat flow Q

q = Heat flux = =
Total surface area A
Example: Radiative heat transfer from an idealized physical body

An object with a temperature of 20 oC has surface properties approximate those of an idealized physical
body. Calculate the heat flux from this object, and also calculate the total heat flow rate if the surface area is
0.2 m2.
Temperature T = 20 °C + 273 = 293 K
q = σ T4 = (5.67×10-8 ) × 2934 = 418 W/m2
total heat flow rate Q = qA= (418 W/m2) × (0.2 m2) = 83.6 W
12.2.2 Solar Energy Reaching Earth

• Energy from the sun is the main driver for our climate system.
• When the energy from the sun reaches the atmosphere, some is absorbed and some is reflected, mainly by
clouds.
• Most of the remaining energy heats the earth’s surface.
• The earth’s surface then loses its heat again through rising air currents, radiation, and the evaporation of water.
Some of this heat passes straight through the atmosphere and back to space, but some is absorbed by
greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, water vapor, methane, and ozone. Most of the air (nitrogen and oxygen –
does not do this.
• If the greenhouse gases didn’t absorb and reemit heat, we wouldn’t be able to live on earth
12.2.3 A Simple Earth Energy Balance
Incoming
• Example: Estimate the average temperature that the earth would have solar Earth
radiation
if it had no atmosphere.

• the amount of solar energy incident on the earth’s atmosphere averages S0 = 342 W/m2
Outgoing terrestrial radiation
about 342 W/m2, based on the surface area of the earth.
q = σ Te4 (W/m2)
• Based on measurements from space, the albedo of the earth is currently
estimated at about 31 %  The earth reflects roughly 31% of all the
incoming solar radiation back to outer space from the tops of clouds, icy
surfaces, oceans, etc.

• q = σ Te4 (W/m2)

• Rate of energy absorbed = Rate of energy emitted

q = S0(1-a)  S0(1-a) = σ Te4 (W/m2)

q = S0(1-a)  S0(1-a) = σ Te

Te = [S0(1-a)/ σ]1/4

Te = [342(1-0.31)/ 5.67×10-8 ]1/4 = 254K = -19 oC

12.2.4 Temperature and the Radiative Spectrum
lOMoARcPSD|29132674

λ =c/v

λ is wavelength, c is the speed of light (3×108 m/s), v is frequency

Solar radiation is
concentrated in the
shorter wavelengths,
whereas terrestrial
radiation occurs at much
longer wavelengths.
12.2.5 The Earth’s Atmosphere
Atmospheric Structure
• Troposphere
 from the ground surface 10-15 km above
 decreasing temperature as altitude increases
 drive substantial vertical and horizontal air movements and mixing

• Stratosphere
 15-50 km above troposphere
 protective ozone layer
 increasing temperature with altitude → stable
 pollutants diffuse slowly → ozone
 depleting compounds → ozone depletion
Atmosphere
Dry basis 78% N2 (mol fraction) Wet basis the atmosphere contains moisture:
21% O2 -- water vapor
0.93% Ar -- liquid drops
-- ice crystals
0.03% CO2
< 0.01% others
12.2.7 Greenhouse Effect

• If we were to increase the concentration of gases such as CO2, CH4, N2O, and H2O in the atmosphere 
more absorption  making the atmosphere's ratio of outgoing to incoming transparency decline.
• In turn, the average temperature of the earth would rise, thus producing the so-called greenhouse effect.
• The group consisting of CO2, CH4, N2O, etc. are collectively called greenhouse gases.

Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

Recent history of the

CO2 content of the
global atmosphere
12.5 Climate Change Predictions

Source: Karl et al. 2009)

(1) Global temperature rise

• Earth’s average surface temperature has risen
about 0.5- 0.9 oC since the late 19th century, a
change driven largely by increased CO2 and other
anthropogenic emissions into the atmosphere.
• Most of the warming occurred in the past 35 years
(2) Warming oceans

• The oceans have absorbed much of this increased heat, with the top 700 meters (about 2,300 feet) of ocean
showing warming of 0.302 oF since 1969
• The warming of the oceans has widespread effects
→ It causes marine heat waves that kill fish and coral reefs, fuels hurricanes and coastal downpours, spawns
harmful toxin-producing algal blooms
 (3) Shrinking ice sheets, Glacial retreat

Mountain glaciers all over the world are in retreat.

Saskatchewan Glacier is a major outlet glacier of the

Columbia Icefield in Alberta.

https://glacierchange.wordpress.com/2013/02/
28/saskatchewan-glacier-retreat-alberta/

Athabasca Glacier at the Columbia Icefields in the Canadian Rockies of Alberta

https://sites.google.com/a/gsbi.org/gvcm301
/ocean-conservation/global-warming

https://www.climatecentral.org/outreac
https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/a h/alert-archive/2016Ice.php?market=DC
rticle/glacier
(4) Sea level rise

• Melting ice sheets and glaciers

• Expansion of seawater with temperature increase
• Global sea level rose about 8 inches in the last century. The rate in the last two decades is nearly
double that of the last century.

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/
(5) Extreme weather

• Heat waves
• Drought
• Heavy downpours
→ The increase in evaporation (fairly uniform globally) implies an increase in precipitation (not uniform),
because the atmosphere can’t store water vapor indefinitely
• Floods
• Hurricanes
• Increased winter storm in Easter North America
(6) Ocean acidification
• Ocean acidification is the ongoing decrease in the pH of the Earth's oceans, caused by the uptake of CO2
from the atmosphere.
• Seawater is slightly basic (meaning pH > 7), and ocean acidification involves a shift towards pH- neutral
conditions rather than a transition to acidic conditions (pH < 7).
• An estimated 30 - 40% of the carbon dioxide from human activity released into the atmosphere dissolves
into oceans, rivers and lakes. Some of it reacts with the water to form carbonic acid.

• Increasing acidity is thought to have a range of • Estimated change in seawater pH caused by

potentially harmful consequences for marine human-created CO between the 1700s and
organisms such as depressing metabolic rates and the 1990s
immune responses in some organisms and
causing coral bleaching

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_acidification#:~:text=Ocean%20acidification%20is%20t
he%20ongoing,conditions%20(pH%20%3C%2 07).
12.7 Stabilizing atmospheric concentrations
12.7.1 Lifetime of GHGs
The atmospheric concentration of GHG undergo an
exponential decay. The longer the atmospheric
lifetime, the slower and more gradual the depletion.
m = m0e-βt  τ= t/β

• m0 is the initial mass of the chemical at time t = 0

• Proportionality constant β has the units of (time)-1
 more useful to define new constant (τ)

m = moe-t/τ
The constant τ thus has the units of time, typically measured in years.
This time constant τ is defined as the atmospheric lifetime.
12.7.2 The Carbon Cycle
12.7.3 Stabilization Scenarios
Several scenarios were developed by the (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) IPCC to show how
atmospheric CO2 concentrations might be stabilized at levels from 450 to 1,000 ppmv CO2. Stabilization is
assumed to be achieved over the next 75 to 400 years depending on the scenario. Of course, achieving the
stabilized concentrations in the figure, requires substantial reductions in anthropogenic CO2 emissions.

The international goal of stabilizing atmospheric CO2 levels will requires anthropogenic emissions to decline to 60-80 %
below 1900 emission
12.8 CO2 Emissions and Energy Use
• Most of the energy used throughout the world is in the form of fossil fuels: oil, coal and
natural gas.
• Fossil fuels supply energy for transportation and industrial processes.
• Fossil fuels account for 75 % of the world’s annual energy consumption
12.8.1 Carbon Content of Fuels
Fossil fuels contain varying proportions of carbon and hydrogen. When burned, the carbon in fuel is
converted to carbon dioxide:

C + O2  CO2
The atomic weight of carbon is 12 and the molecular weight of CO2 is 44. Thus every 12 g of
carbon in fuel produces 44 g of CO2. The ratio of these two numbers provides a convenient
way of expressing CO2 emissions in terms of equivalent carbon, which is how IPCC report
CO2 emissions:
44
1 mass units of C = = 3.667 mass units of CO2
12
To determine the total mass of CO2 emitted each year, we must know the
amount of each fossil fuel consumed and the mass fraction of carbon in
each fuel type. Typical values of carbon content of fossil fuel are
tabulated in Table 12.6

Assuming all of the carbon is converted to CO2, the total emission from
each fuel type is :
wt% C
Mass of carbon emitted = x Mass of fuel burned
100
12.8.1 Carbon Content of Fuels

Example: CO2 emissions from coal consumption

In 1996 approximately 4,700 million metric tons of coal were

burned throughout the world. Estimate the resulting carbon
emission rate in units of Gt C/yr and also Gt CO2 /yr.

4,700 million metric tons = 4.7 x 109 tonnes

mc = mass of carbon emitted/yr

= (4.7Gt coal/yr)(0.59 Gt C/Ct coal) = 2.8 Gt C/yr

To express this result in terms of CO2, multiply by 3.667 mass

units of CO2

 2.8 x 3.667 = 10 Gt CO2/yr

12.8.2 Energy Content of Fuels

An alternative method for calculating CO2 emissions ( or equivalent carbon) is based on fuel energy content rather
than fuel mass.

The energy delivered by a fossil fuel is determined mainly by its content of carbon and hydrogen, which release
chemical energy when the fuel is burned. The quantity of energy per unit of fuel mass is known as the heating value
and is expressed in units of kJ/kg or kJ/mol.

Expressing the carbon content of a fuel in relation to the fuel energy content gives a direct link between energy
consumption and carbon emissions. The ratio of a fuel’s carbon content to its energy content defines the carbon
intensity:

Fuel carbon mass

Carbon intensity =
Fuel energy

Once the fuel heating value is determined, the corresponding carbon intensity is calculated as

Fraction of C in fuel
Carbon intensity =
Fuel heating value
 Example: Carbon intensity of methane gas

Methane (CH4) has a higher heating value (HHV) of 55.64 kJ/g.

Calculate the carbon intensity of methane and compare it to the
value for natural gas in Table 12.6.

• Heating value is given on a mass basis  find the mass

fraction of carbon in methane
Mass of C 12 gC
= = 0.75
Mass of CH4 16 g CH4

Fraction of C in fuel 0.75 g C/ g CH4

CH4 intensity = = = 0.0135 g C/kJ = 13.5 g C/MJ
Fuel heating value 55.64 kJ/g

 Notice that the carbon intensity for natural gas in Table 12.6 (13.7 g G’MJ) is slightly
higher than that of pure methane
 natural gas includes small amounts of ethane, propane, and butane, which contain more
carbon per unit mass than methane