THE GLOBAL

ECONOMIC
POTENTIAL OF
5G-ENABLED
TECHNOLOGY
A STUDY FOR QUALCOMM INCORPORATED

MARCH 2023
The Global Economic Potential of 5G-Enabled Technology

THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC

POTENTIAL OF 5G-ENABLED
TECHNOLOGY
KEY FINDINGS:

• The fifth generation of mobile networks, 5G, is being rolled out rapidly and is expected to
significantly transform the capabilities of mobile networks not only through faster speeds
but also with additional benefits such as lower latency and greater traffic capacity. The new
use cases enabled by 5G’s enhanced capabilities have the potential to significantly improve
productivity across the world.

• These use cases are already helping businesses increase productivity by supporting flexibility
and generating cost and time savings and will continue to do so in the coming years. For
example, a majority of the business executives surveyed for this study expect 5G to enhance
productivity by accelerating the pace of automation to address labor shortages (78%).

• The size of the economic opportunity from 5G-technologies depends on the speed of rollout,
the spectrum used, and the extent to which new use cases are adopted.

• Our modeling indicates that the connectivity improvements enabled by mid-band 5G mobile
networks are projected to contribute (1.1%) to global GDP in 2030 through productivity gains.
These projected benefits will be enabled through new use cases, services and applications,
and business models that are facilitated
through speed, latency, and traffic capacity
improvements in 5G networks. GDP boost in 2030 through 5G-enabled
productivity improvements % of global GDP
• Complementing mid-band 5G’s capabilities
by using mmWave spectrum could increase
the productivity benefits significantly;

1.1% 1.7%
combined use of mid-band and mmWave
spectrum is expected to contribute (1.7%)
to global GDP in 2030. In other words, our
modeling indicates that the GDP boost Mid-band
enabled by 5G using the mmWave spectrum only Mid-band
constitutes almost 10% of the increase in and mmWave
global GDP between 2022 and 2030.

• Our executive survey indicates that

businesses are investing to realize the
potential benefits from 5G technologies. A majority of executives surveyed for this report
have already started seeing moderate-to-significant benefits from adoption of 5G-tech
through improvements in the speed and accuracy in operations. They are also beginning to
realize increased remote work possibilities and a greater ability to attract and retain talent.

• Surveyed executives also realize the potential of 5G to provide a platform for future
innovations, with more than two-thirds acknowledging 5G’s influence in their organizations’
decisions to invest in technologies such as AI and IoT.

• However, nearly two-thirds of the executives in our survey also highlight obstacles that may
slow down their adoption of 5G—mainly, security concerns and regulatory pressures.

1
The Global Economic Potential of 5G-Enabled Technology

THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC

POTENTIAL OF 5G-ENABLED
TECHNOLOGY
Faster and more efficient
mobile networks
The rollout of 5G, the fifth
generation of mobile networks,
continues at pace across the
world. As of January 2023, 5G
was available in 96 countries,
1
and according to GSMA
forecasts, 5G will account
for a quarter of total mobile
connections worldwide by
2025. Consumers are also
2
gearing up for 5G services:
global sales of 5G phones
overtook sales of 4G phones in
January 2022.
3
While previous generations of
mobile networks connected
people, 5G goes beyond. It not
only connects people better
but also connects devices
and machines to each other
and to people. Compared to
previous generations of mobile
technology, 5G networks can
transport large amounts of
data more quickly, connect
an extremely large number of
devices reliably, and process
very high volumes of data with
minimal delay.
A platform for innovation and
improvements in productivity
The improved connectivity and
new innovations enabled by
5G networks has the potential
to boost productivity across
the global economy. As with
previous technologies, the
extent to which the widely
anticipated broader economic
and commercial benefits will be
realised is uncertain with both
downside risks as well as upside
potential. The magnitude of
the economic benefits, and
the speed at which they
will be realised, will depend
on the extent to which 5G
mobile networks are deployed
globally, the spectrum used
for rollout, and investment in
developing various use cases
and applications.
How we estimate the
economic opportunity of
5G-enabled technology
In this report, we describe
key findings from a research
program to understand
the role of 5G and related
technologies for consumers,
businesses, and the wider
economy. Our research
involved surveys of consumers
and business executives
in 13 markets, as well as
the development of an
econometric model to quantify
the role of 5G networks in the
wider economy in terms of
improved productivity .
4

1
GSA, “5G stand-alone January 2023 Summary Report”, 17 January 2023. Last accessed January 2023.
2
GSMA, “The Mobile Economy 2022”, 2022.
3
Financial Times, “Learning to love 5G, and beyond”, June 2022. Last accessed January 2023. 3
4
Note that in this study, we project the GDP boost through 5G-enabled productivity benefits and not, for example, total sales enabled
by 5G and associated technologies. GDP is a measure of value creation in the economy whereas sales is akin to business revenue and is
typically significantly higher than GDP.

MUCH MORE THAN A FASTER
VERSION OF 4G
The key improvement that
4G provided compared
to previous generations
was higher data speeds
that enriched mobile user
experiences. With 4G, apps
respond quickly, videos
download faster, and video
telephony works without
glitches. These improvements
have encouraged the
proliferation of apps and
services reliant on high-speed
networks in recent years.
Despite the advances enabled
by 4G technology, the quality
and speed of mobile networks
available today has hindered
Fig. 1: Demand for digital services
0 20
Digital healthcare services
Next-generation retail 23.3
Video gaming
Digital education services
AR/VR experiences 20.5
Connected cars 19.4
(n=5078)
Already using today
Source: Oxford Economics
4 5
The Global Economic Potential of 5G-Enabled Technology
widespread adoption of
recently developed apps and
services. With faster networks,
it is likely that more mobile
users will see the benefits of
these innovations in the future.
A majority of consumers
surveyed for this study report
that they do not use a range
of digital services currently.
However, Fig. 1 shows that at
least two-thirds of consumers
report a willingness to use
various digital services if
connectivity improves—more
than doubling the potential
demand for these services.
% of respondents
40
40.7
50.9
39.5 32.3
33.2 38.3
43.3
45.6
Not using today, but would use with better connectivity
Latency and capacity
improvements with 5G
networks
In addition to faster download
and upload speeds, 5G is
also expected to provide
greater network capacity and
enable lower latency (the
time it takes for signals to
travel through the network)
compared to 4G. These
improvements are critical for
meeting the global demand
for mobile data services
and enabling new use cases
across all types of industries.
60 80 100
39.1
The Global Economic Potential of 5G-Enabled Technology
NEW USE CASES WILL SPUR business needs across a range
INNOVATION AND BOOST of sectors, potentially making
PRODUCTIVITY 5G technologies ubiquitous.
The widespread adoption
Improvements in networks of the new use cases could
enabled by 5G are expected transform agricultural
to support four categories and industrial production,
of use cases (see Fig. 2): for example, through the
enhanced mobile broadband deployment of sensors,
(eMBB), fixed wireless access robots, autonomous vehicles,
(FWA), mission-critical smart cameras, drones
communications, and Massive monitoring production, and
Internet of Things (MIoT) many other devices.
which will help meet different
Fig. 2: Use cases enabled by 5G
Enhanced mobile Fixed wireless Mission-critical Massive Internet
broadband access communications of Things
5G will provide the 5G delivered via Fixed Low latency and high 5G will be able to
capacity to handle Wireless Access reliability will enable facilitate a large
growing data traffic. provides ‘last mile’ new applications in network of IoT
This will enable a new broadband manufacturing, devices, supporting
range of applications, connectivity to logistics, health, and smart cities, smart
including reliable customers, helping transportation. These infrastructure, and
mobile internet provide high-speed include autonomous smart power grids
services for mass internet access to driving, connected capable of
gatherings and sports households and robotic applications, self-identifying issues
events and AR/VR businesses in remote AR/VR, drones and on networks, or smart
applications that regions. remote surgical/ agricultural practices
improve the customer medical operations. to identify crop
experience in retail. requirements in very
large fields.
Source: GSMA Intelligence
 The Global Economic Potential of 5G-Enabled Technology The Global Economic Potential of 5G-Enabled Technology

Enabling business innovations
and improving productivity
The new use cases enabled
by faster speeds, improved
latency and traffic capacity will
help businesses throughout
the world and across various
industries increase productivity
by supporting flexibility and
innovation and generating cost
and time savings. For example, a
majority (78.1%) of the business
executives surveyed for this
study expect 5G to enhance
productivity by accelerating the
pace of automation to address
labor shortages.
5G-enabled use cases will also And creating value for
promote business innovation consumers
by facilitating improved
customer experiences, Executives’ sentiments
enhanced product are matched by those of
development, and enabling consumers as well. Consumers
better collaboration between surveyed for this study
businesses. The majority of feel that if connectivity
executives surveyed indicated improvements come to
that 5G will help create better fruition (as shown in Fig. 4),
products and experiences they will be better able to
for consumers and improve access information (66.2%),
business collaboration. witness greater social
equity due to increased
opportunities (59.8%), and
have easier interactions with
friends and family (56.3%).
A CATALYST FOR FUTURE cloud or edge device, rather
TECHNOLOGIES than in the central cloud).
A majority of executive
5G networks will also serve as respondents in our survey
the underlying infrastructure expect 5G will become even
enabling innovations in other more powerful when used in
potentially transformative tandem with AI, increasing
technologies. For example, access to data (51.7%)
the widespread wireless and improving predictive
connectivity enabled by capabilities (49.6%).
5G networks will unlock
the potential of recent
technologies such as Artificial
Intelligence (AI) and edge-
computing (computing that
takes place closer to the
source of data, at the edge

Fig. 3: 5G impact on customer experiences and business collaboration Fig. 4: 5G impact on customer experiences and business collaboration
Surveyed business executives who agree with the following statements on the impact of 5G networks (n=3030) Surveyed consumers who agree with the following statements on the impact of 5G networks (n=5078)

% of respondents % of respondents

0 50 100 0 20 40 60 80

Customers will expect 5G connectivity experiences 84.7 Greater access to information 66.2
Equity through access to opportunities 59.8
5G will open up new possibilities for
79.9 Ease of interaction with friends and family 56.3
collaboration with other businesses
5G will improve the personalisation Societal innovation 53.1
78.9
of customer experiences
Safer environments 52.7
5G will help meet customers'
78.8 Quality of life 51.7
expectations on sustainability efforts
Work-life balance 50.7
5G will create higher quality experiences for customers 78.8
Impact on the environment 46.5
5G will improve brand reputation 77.3

(n=5078)
Source: Oxford Economics
(n=3030)
Source: Oxford Economics

6 7
 The Global Economic Potential of 5G-Enabled Technology The Global Economic Potential of 5G-Enabled Technology

Productivity benefits associated

1.7%
how 5G networks could of mmWave spectrum is 1.6 times

1.1%
5G ROLLOUT WITH MID-BAND MMWAVE 5G SPECTRUM
SPECTRUM PROJECTED TO improve global productivity in a PROJECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY with complementing mid-band that of mid-band spectrum alone.
BOOST GLOBAL GDP IN 2030 hypothetical scenario where only INCREASE PRODUCTIVITY with mmWaves 1.6 times higher
BY $1.3 TRILLION the network speed improvements BENEFITS ASSOCIATED WITH than that of mid-band-only 5G To put this in context, our
of 5G are realized. 5G NETWORKS modeling indicates that the GDP

of global GDP Faster mobile networks can

Productivity-linked boost to global
GDP in 2030 enabled by 5G rollout
using the mid-band spectrum only
be expected to drive economic
gains because they will enable
tools and processes that drive
quicker, cheaper, and more
convenient production that
improves the productivity of
businesses. They will also lower
search and information costs
of consumers and producers
(e.g., through next-generation
retail services), enabling new
transactions and improving
existing ones, thereby stimulating
more trade and competition.
5
The extent to which businesses
can exploit these new capabilities
may be determined by the
spectrum used for 5G rollout.
Mid-band spectrum is most
typically used for 5G rollout
globally but high-band spectrum
6
(i.e., mmWave) is essential to fully
realise the potential benefits from
5G networks. We begin with the
projected economic benefits
associated with mid-band
spectrum below, followed by a
discussion of the projected gains
associated 5G mmWave in the
following pages.
Estimates provided by Qualcomm
indicate that 5G download
speeds could be 5x faster than
that of 4G, and uplink speeds
are expected to be 2x faster with
mid-band spectrum rollout. Traffic
capacity and latency with 5G are
expected to improve by 4x and 5x
respectively compared to 4G.
Based on these assumptions and
results from our econometric
model, we project that the use
cases enabled by 5G using
the mid-band spectrum will
boost productivity sufficiently
to lift global GDP by 1.1% or $1.3
trillion in 2030 (2022 prices).
These productivity benefits
are enabled through new use
cases, services and applications,
and new business models that
rely on a combination of 5G’s
improvements in speed, latency,
and traffic capacity. However,
as these nascent technologies
mature and become more widely
adopted, their contribution to
the 5G productivity dividend
can be expected to increase
commensurately.
Using mmWave spectrum for
5G rollout will make mobile
networks faster and more
efficient
5G’s full economic benefits
can be realized if mmWave
spectrum—which provides greater
bandwidth and capacity relative
to mid-band spectrum—is used
to complement the capabilities
of the mid-band spectrum.
According to estimates from
Qualcomm, if mmWave spectrum
is used alongside mid-band
spectrum, 5G downlink speeds
would be 20 times faster than 4G,
and uplink speeds would be six
times faster. Further, latency and
traffic capacity are expected to
improve by 10 times and 13 times,
respectively, relative to 4G.
5G rollout using mmWave
spectrum would, therefore, enable
a larger set of use cases, including
of global GDP
boost enabled by 5G constitutes
almost 10% of the increase in
global GDP between 2022 and
remote object manipulation, 2030.
Productivity-linked boost to global
industrial automation, and more GDP in 2030 enabled by 5G rollout
widespread use of VR/AR. using mid-band and mmWave
spectrum
These use cases will further
increase the potential productivity
benefits enabled by 5G. We
estimate that the productivity
benefits could contribute around
$2.1 trillion to global GDP in
2030 (2022 prices), equivalent
to 1.7% of global GDP. In other
words, the estimated productivity
benefits associated with the use

We developed an econometric Our modeling suggests that

model based on data spanning
the last two decades to
quantify the extent to which
previous generations of mobile
technology (2G, 3G, and 4G)
have contributed to productivity
growth. Combining the results
of our econometric model with
assumptions on 5G’s advantage
over 4G allows us to estimate
improvements in latency and
traffic capacity will contribute
only 15% of the $1.3 trillion in
projected productivity benefits
by 2030. In other words, the new
use cases, products, and services
enabled by faster speeds alone
is projected to boost global
productivity by $1.1 trillion in GDP
in 2030 (0.9%), in 2022 prices.

8 5
ITIF, “Promoting European growth, productivity and competitiveness by taking advantage of the next digital technology wave”, March 7
Business services include real estate activities, professional services, scientific and technical activities, and administrative and support services. 9
2019. Last accessed January 2023.
6
GSMA, “The socio-economic benefits of mid-band 5G services”, February 2022. Last accessed January 2023.
 The Global Economic Potential of 5G-Enabled Technology The Global Economic Potential of 5G-Enabled Technology

5G-enabled productivity
benefits expected to be
realized in a wide range of
sectors
Our modeling indicates
that more than one-fifth of
the estimated productivity
benefits will be in the
manufacturing sector (see
Fig. 5). However, 5G will also
improve productivity across
other sectors: business
services, retail and wholesale,
7
and the transport and storage
sectors are each expected to
realize around 10% of the total
global benefits in absolute terms.
The wide dispersion of Regional impact of 5G will of the regions. As shown in
productivity gains across depend on the size of the Fig. 6, we project the largest
sectors highlights the variety region and the speed of rollout gains to be seen in the US,
of potential use cases and China, Japan, Germany, the
applications that 5G is The distribution of the UK, and France.
expected to enable. estimated productivity
benefits across regions
In relative terms (see also depends on the speed of
Fig. 5), interestingly, public rollout and the economic size
services (including defense)
and the information and
communication sectors, Fig. 6: Global distribution of productivity-enabled GDP benefits from full 5G rollout (including mmWave)
along with manufacturing, Darker shades on the map indicate higher % increase (grey represent areas for which data was not available). GDP uplift in US$ billions (2022
are projected to realize
prices) and in % for select countries are shown in the table.
productivity boosts exceeding
2% of the respective sector
output (in value-added terms).

Fig. 5: Sectoral distribution of global productivity-enabled GDP gains from full 5G rollout in 2030

Manufacturing 2.2%

Business services 1.3%

21.7% 22.5%
Retail and wholesale 1.9%

Transport and storage 1.7% % increase n GDP

5.0% Government services 2.1% No data
$2.1 trillion
13.2% ICT services 2.1% 0% - 1%
7.3%
1% - 1.5%
Healthcare and social work 1.8% Country US$ billions (2022 prices) % Increase
7.5% 1.5% - 2%
12.3% Others (see note) 2.1% United States 634.6 2.2%
10.5%
China 503.5 1.9%
Total 1.7%
Japan 96.5 2.1%

Germany 94.9 2.1%

United Kingdom 70.7 2.0%

Figures in the legend show growth in sector economic output associated with 5G-enabled technologies.
France 60.7 2.0%

Source: Oxford Economics Brazil 28.3 1.3%

Rest of the World 586.3 1.4%

Note: Other sectors not listed above include Accommodation and Catering (1.9%), Agriculture, forestry and fisheries (3.2%), Arts, recreation and
Total 2,086.9 1.7%
personal services (2.1%), Construction (3.9%), Education (2.2%), Extraction (2.3%), Financial services (4.3%), and Utilities (1.8%). Source: Oxford Economics

10 11
 The Global Economic Potential of 5G-Enabled Technology The Global Economic Potential of 5G-Enabled Technology

Our index indicates that the
US, UK, Germany, and China
are better placed to realize
5G benefits
To assess the attitudes and
preparedness of businesses
themselves in adopting 5G
technologies, we consolidated
the responses to the various
questions in the business
survey into a 5G Business
Readiness Index. The index is
supplemented with national
data capturing factors such
as skills, capital market
Fig. 7: 5G Business Readiness Index
Index (sample average = 50)
70
64
60 57
50
40
m
conditions, and institutional
factors that could influence
innovation and technology
adoption by businesses in
the corresponding countries.
Our index is limited to the 12
out of the 13 countries in our
8
survey sample and measures
the readiness of businesses
relative to other countries.
Notably, our index shows
that businesses in the UK, US,
Germany, and China are in a
relatively better position than
others in the sample to take
57
55
51 50 49
advantage of the potential
benefits of 5G. Respondents
in these countries are ahead
of others in our survey sample
in their plans to adopt 5G
technologies from which
they expect to realize greater
benefits in the future. They
also perceive fewer barriers
than others in the sample.
48
47 47
45
43
Business executives in France
are relatively less optimistic
about the potential of 5G
It is interesting to note the
subtle differences in adoption,
perception and investment
climates among the advanced
countries in our study sample.
For example, our modelling
projects similar 5G-enabled
potential economic gains in
France and Germany, but our
survey findings show that
Germany is better placed to
realize these benefits. From
their adoption of 5G-tech
to-date, executives in France
and Germany report realising
similar levels of benefits, but
looking forward, French
businesses are relatively
less optimistic about the
future potential of 5G and
therefore, are planning to
invest relatively less going
forward, which may limit the
economic opportunity from
5G in France.
Executives in India optimistic they do not differ greatly from
about 5G’s potential despite the overall survey results. With
its late launch faster 5G rollout across the
country, India may be able
5G services were formally reap significant economic
launched launched in India benefits from 5G and close the
in October 2022 , and
9
gap with advanced economies.
therefore, Indian executives
surveyed may not have had
the opportunity to experience
5G services. Nevertheless,
they are optimistic about
the prospects of 5G and
report that their businesses
are planning to adopt 5G
technologies to the same
extent as others in our
sample. Around two-thirds
of Indian respondents say
5G’s capabilities will open
new geographic markets to
business (65%), enhance the
speed in which organizations
are able to derive value
from advanced technologies
(67%), and drive exciting new
possibilities over the next
three years for new products
and services (61%). In that,

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Source: Oxford Economics

12 8
5G services in India were formally launched in October 2022, after the survey for this study was conducted in India, and therefore some 9
The Economic Times, “Jio, Airtel announce further expansion of 5G coverage in new cities”, 31 January 2023, last accessed February 2023. 13
of the questions in the survey, e.g., on 5G’s performance to-date, were not applicable to Indian respondents. Therefore, India has been
excluded from the index which combines executives’ views on their current and past experiences with 5G adoption.

ARE BUSINESSES READY TO
REALIZE THE PRODUCTIVITY
BENEFITS OF 5G
TECHNOLOGIES?
It will not be long before
businesses start to realize
significant productivity
benefits from 5G technologies.
We learned from our executive
respondents that almost all
businesses surveyed have
already adopted or are
planning to adopt 5G-enabled
technologies, and a majority
have already started realizing
at least moderately positive
results. A majority said that
5G already has improved the
accuracy of data collection
(75.8%) and increased the
speed in which tasks can be
completed (71.4%).
Fig. 8: Businesses’ views on 5G and the future of their
organization
Share of surveyed executives who realized the following benefits from 5G capabilities
(n=3030)
% of respondents
Greater ability to
attract talent
Improved Data
collection accuracy
Improved speed of
various tasks
Greater remote
working possibilities
0 20
(n=3030)
Source: Oxford Economics
14
The Global Economic Potential of 5G-Enabled Technology
A similar number have also
leveraged 5G to attract new
talent (76.5%) or offer greater
remote possibilities (75.8%)—
critical decisions that will help
establish a savvy workforce.
Many also realize the potential
of 5G to provide a platform
for future innovations. And
the influence of a potential 5G
revolution can been seen clearly
in business decisions. More than
two-thirds (67.2%) say 5G drove
their decision to roll out cloud,
and nearly as many (63.8%)
claim it has influenced IoT
adoption. Perhaps even more
indicative of 5G’s potential is
a fear of missing out: 70.3% of
executives say they will
fall behind if they do not
integrate 5G.
76.5
75.8
71.4
71.2
40 60 80
The Global Economic Potential of 5G-Enabled Technology
Fig. 9: Businesses’ views on A word of caution, though. A favorable macroeconomic
5G and the future of their Many executives acknowledge and regulatory environment
organization various barriers slowing that addresses these
Share of surveyed executives who agreed down their adoption of 5G concerns and encourages
with the statements below (n=3030) technologies, as shown in faster development of 5G
Fig. 11. Nearly four in five cite networks will be necessary to
security as an impediment facilitate the development of
to 5G (78.4%), and almost innovative 5G use cases.
two-thirds are stymied by
regulatory pressures (64.6%)
67%
or worry that 5G technology
is not sufficiently mature
(64.0%).
5G drove
decision to roll
out cloud
Fig. 10: Barriers to 5G adoption
Surveyed business executives who consider the listed factors a moderate to significant barrier to 5G adoption in their organisations
% of respondents
0 20 40 60 80 100
63%
Security concerns 78.4
Regulatory requirements 64.6
Lack of technological maturity 64.0
5G influenced Time to implementation 62.6
IoT adoption Customer resistance 59.2
The cost of technology upgrades 58.8
Lack of available skills in the workforce 55.0
Length of the expected ROI 55.0
Lack of support from leadership 54.7
Compatability with existing systems 42.3
70%
(n=3030)
Source: Oxford Economics
believe they will
all behind
100 competition
without 5G
Source: Oxford Economics
15
 The Global Economic Potential of 5G-Enabled Technology

ABOUT OXFORD ECONOMICS

Oxford Economics was founded in 1981 as a March 2023

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