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ANALYSIS OF SUCCESSFUL SALES OF INTERNATIONAL TRACTOR MOTORS

USING BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION.

International Tractor Motors has undertaken an ad campaign to promote a

new IT-8 large specialty tractor. The successful sales by the sale associates in the field were
recorded in a scatter plot. The data is used to analyze the sales using probability and binomial
distribution functions. The probability distribution function is used to give probability of all
possible values that a random variable can take. The binomial distribution function specifies the
number of times (x) an event occurs in n independent trials where p is the probability of event
occurring in a single trial. The analysis is going to help them decide on the best distribution
function to use in examining the success scenario.
This tractor sales scenario can be a binomial experiment because there are a
fixed number of trials (4 sales associates selling tractors each day), there are only two possible
outcomes for each trial (success or failure in selling a tractor), the probability of success is the
same for each trial and the trials are independent of each other.
Using the Tractor Successes scatter plot they constructed a frequency
distribution table for the number of successes as shown below:
N
umber of F x
successes (x) requency (f) *f
1
0 0 0
2 2
1 9 9
2 5
2 6 2
1
3 4 2
1
4 3 2
T 7 1
Totals(Σ) 2 05
 The mean number of successes is calculated using the formula Σ(x*f)/Σ f.
From the frequency distribution table, they added the column with the product of number of
successes (x) and frequency of the successes (f). They divided the sum of the products i.e 105
with the sum of the frequencies i.e (72) to obtain the mean number of successes which is 1.46.
This result (1.46) represents the average number of successful tractor sales per day across all four
sales associates.
A relative distribution table shows the proportion of the total number of
observations associated with each value. It is constructed from the frequency distribution table as
represented below. The relative frequency distribution table is a probability distribution because
it shows the probability of each possible outcome (number of successes) occurring in the
experiment.

R
N elative
umber of F Frequency X
successes (x) requency (f) (R.F) *R.F
1 0
0 0 .14 0
2 0 0
1 9 .40 .40
2 0 0
2 6 .36 .72
0 0
3 4 .06 .17
0 0
4 3 .04 .17
1 7 1 1
T 0 2 .00 .46

From the relative distribution table, they calculated the average of the tractor
sales success using the same steps as used to obtain the mean number of successes. The sum of
the product of relative frequency and the number of successes is 1.46 divided by sum of the
relative frequencies. The average tractor sales success is 1.46.
The scatter plot representing the probability distribution is as shown below:

1.20

1.00

0.80

0.60

0.40

0.20

0.00
0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Probability Distribution

The Binomial Distribution is determined by the number of trials/frequencies

(n) and the probability of success on each frequency(p). With n=4, mean= 1.46, they calculated
the value of p by dividing the mean by n i.e (1.46/4) which equals 0.365.They then constructed a
binomial probability distribution table as shown below. They used the BINOM.DIST function in
excel.
N R B
umber of F elative inomial Distn
successes (x) requency (f) Frequency
1 0 0
0 0 .00 .16
2 0 0
1 9 .10 .37
2 0 0
2 6 .20 .32
0 0
3 4 .30 .12
0 0
4 3 .40 .02
1 7 1 1
0 2 .00 .00
 Using the values n=4 and p= 0.365, the probability of at least two successes
can be calculated. At least two successes mean two or more successes. To find the probability of
at least two successes, they calculated the probabilities for 2, 3, and 4 successes using the
BINOM.DIST function and added up the results. The probabilities of 2,3 and 4 as shown in table
above are 0.32, 0.12 and 0.02 respectively. The sum equals 0.46 which is the probability of at
least two successes.
The mean of the Binomial Distribution is given by the formula μ = n*p,
where n is the number of trials and p is the probability of success. The mean for the above
successes is found by substituting values in the formula given where n= 3 and p= 0.46 hence the
mean equals 1.38.
The scatter plot representing the binomial distribution is as shown below:

1.20

1.00

0.80

0.60

0.40

0.20

0.00
0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Binomial Distribution

Comparing the probability and binomial distribution scatter plots, there is no

difference between the two plots. This is because binomial distribution gives them the
probability of x successes in n trials given the probability while the probability function gives us
the probability of successes happening in f trials. Basically both distributions expound on the
probability of same event occurring hence the similarity.
Comparing the means in step 4 and 6, they see that they are both the same
1.46. This tells them that average number of successful tractor sales per day across all four sales
associates is 1.46.
 Binomial Distribution is a good model of choice in this analysis. This is
because the distribution allows them to computes probability of observed number of success or
failure when the process is replicated a given number of times and outcomes are either success of
failure (Boston,2016). This distribution is also favorable since it assumes that the observations
are independent and there can only be one outcome for each trial.
International Tractor Motors can use binomial distribution to approximate
sales in similar countries by just replicating the same process as they did in that country in Asia.
Other scenarios where binomial distribution can be used is where the study involves two
mutually exclusive outcomes of the trials mostly success or failure. For example, in a campaign
to promote the tractors, ITM can decide to give lessons to farmers on how to use and maintain
the tractors. The outcomes would be number of farmers successfully accomplish the short course
or haw many failed.
In conclusion, it would be advisable for International Tractor Motors to use
binomial distribution function in the analysis of the success sales of tractors. This is because
binomial distribution summarizes the probability that a value will take one of two independent
values under a given set of assumptions.

Works Cited

University, B. (2016) The Binomial distribution: A probability model for discrete model, The
Binomial Distribution: A Probability Model for a Discrete Outcome. Available at:
https://sphweb.bumc.bu.edu/otlt/mph-modules/bs/bs704_probability/bs704_probability7.ht
ml (Accessed: 07 June 2023).