ELECTIVE COURSE:

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT
ASSESSMENT (EIA)

Course Tutor: Dr. Kishan D. Bhatta

Email: kishandatta@yahoo.com
Mobile: 9841341094
PREDICTION AND EVALUATION
TECHNIQUES AND TOOLS
Baseline Data:

 Baselinerefers to the collection of background

information on the biophysical, social, and
economic settings of the proposed area.

 Normally, information is obtained from

secondary sources, or the acquisition of new
information through field samplings, interviews,
surveys, and consultations.
 Baseline information is required for all types
of EAs to facilitate identification, prediction
and evaluation of the environmental impacts
so as to avoid, mitigate or compensate adverse
impacts on the resources of the project and its
surrounding areas.
Base line data is collected for two main purposes:

 Toprovide a description of the status and trends of

environmental factors of the host area against which
predicted changes can be compared and evaluated in
terms of significance;

 Toprovide means of detecting actual change, once a

project is initiated.
 Impact predictions are made against a ‘ baseline’ established
by the existing environment (or by its future state).

 Known as baseline studies, the collection of data on relevant

biophysical , social, and economic aspects provides a reference
point against which the characteristics and parameters of
impact-related changes are analyzed and evaluated.

 The description of the affected environment includes the

characteristics of the area in which the proposed project
activities during construction and operation will take place
>>>>>>>>it should cover the study area (area within all effects
and impacts would occur, and potential compensations and
rehabilitation efforts would be made)
Environmental Aspects:

Physical environment: Topography, geology, meteorology

and hydrology, air quality, noise

Biological environment: Terrestrial biotic communities,

aquatic biotic communities

Socio-economic and cultural environment: Social

setting, gender issues, infrastructure, institution, education,
community resources, economic characteristics, health, sanitation,
cultural resources and practices, agricultural practices.
Impact prediction is a technical exercise

It utilizes physical, biological, socio-economic and

cultural data to estimate the likely characteristics
and parameters of impacts (e.g. magnitude, spatial
occurrence, etc)

 Prediction helps to know what will happen on

the environmental resources during and after the
project implementation >>>> provides
opportunities to select and design cost effective
and appropriate mitigation measures and cause
least damage to environmental resources.
Qualitative prediction is based on expert judgment
while the quantitative rely on mathematical models
and other techniques.

Impact prediction considers the following aspects:

1) Magnitude of the Impacts

2) Extent of the Impacts

3) Duration of the Impacts

Methods of Impact Prediction:
1) Mathematical Models:
 These are based on cause and effect relationship usually
expressed in the form of mathematical functions.
 These include simple input output as well as complex dynamic
models
a) Deterministic Model: normally used to predict socio-economic
impacts such as the economic multiplier after money is injected
into the project area, and the response of local economy.

b) Stochastic Models: They are probabilistic. Predictions depend on

the probability that a number of events will occur in a given area
and time.
 2: Statistical Models:
Statistical models such as regression and component
analysis are sometimes used to indicate the relationship
between data and the test hypothesis.
Predictions of flood frequencies, fro example, may use
statistical models.

3. Geographic Information System:

Satellite images, physical maps and aerial photographs
provide information on existing resources. GIS techniques
can be used to predict the impacts of a development project
as they allow for analyzing the effects of project activities
on the resources present in the project area.
 4.Field and Laboratory Experimental Methods
Inventory ; Laboratory test

5. Biological Methods

6. Socio-economic Methods

7. Expert Judgment

8. Case Studies
Impact Evaluation :

 Impact evaluation provides useful information to

decision makers for selecting appropriate choice. Once
impact is identified and predicted ,it is necessary to
evaluate them in terms of their significance, or non-
significance.

 Impact evaluation should duly consider the national

policies, acts and rules, strategies, standards, guidelines,
international commitments and so on.

 It should also consider public concerns, negative social

impacts and scientific and professional evidences such
as on resource use, ecological damage, etc.
 Significant criteria should be used throughout the
different stages of EA process. Some criteria to
determine adverse impacts include:
 Loss of rare, endangered and/or endemic species;
 extent of habitat destruction, depletion or fragmentation ;
 Reduction in diversity of species, and importance of ecological
functions such as distribution of food chains;
 Loss of critical or productive habitats;
 Severe disturbance to pristine ecosystem and its ecological
sustainability;
 Change in land use and natural landscapes and loss of current use
of land;
 Displacement of families affected by the project activities
 Pressure on social service facilities and loss of valued ( prime land)
areas;
 Toxicity impacts on human health;
 Reduction in the capacity of renewable resources to meet the
needs of present and future generations.
 In case of beneficial impacts, the following criteria could also
be used during the evaluation of their significance:

 Impacts that generate socio-economic benefits such as

employment, income and reduce poverty without depleting the
natural resource base;

 Impacts that address women, disadvantage group, marginalised

people or special target group
 Methods of Impact Evaluation:
1) Consultation with Experts and Stakeholders
2) Delphi Method
3) Use of Numerical Values
4) Consideration of Policies, Laws, and Local Customs
5) Consideration of Standards
6) Environmental Evaluation System
7) Impact Presentation