Sustainable Aviation Fuel: 2022 Outlook Picking up pace Daisy Robinson Jade Patterson August 15, 2022 a ° 3 3 > ® a Zz nm mExecutive summary ‘Sustainable aviation uals (SAFS) ace one of ow low-carbon technologies wit the potent {help decarbonize the aviation sactor anc ar the ony feasible option inthe near term. For the nascont SAF industry, 2022 has boon a otal year as growth in the market picks up pace. Key olcies to boost adoption are progressing through ther respectire legislatures. ‘The numberof forward purchase agreemonts have surged a arines demonstrate thet commenti the clean fuel, and new projects boos! anticipated production capacity. But huraies remain, namely searcly of suply, competion wih enewabie diosa for resources and lack of technological verteation, 1 unaddressed, thse wil lead to substantia bottenecks and could cause the aviation industy ofl short of its ambitious goals. Ths research nots presonts the key thames shaping the sector and is ouookto 2030, 1+ Thiny-soht of the war's top aitines have commited to ntzeraemizson, ler by 2050 reatler Furtermore most 30 have st some fom of SAF adoption target. Ike “0% of ‘el consumption by 2000, While the US and Europe contin to lead the market, other ‘alone ae bagnningta stout pales, roadmaps ana targets to support domestic SAF _acopton,ncuding Canada, Cina and Japan. ‘+ Demand for SAF wi reach 7 ion gaons, 5% fata ft ue! demand by 2090 in BioambergNEF's Econom Tansiton Scenario (ETS), where changes are ven by techno ‘economic ends and market forces, ang assumes no new poses are enacted. BNEF's ‘eclerated Poly Scena, demand reaches 10.6 billon Galen, of 75% of eel use. ‘+ Despite growing Interest and target ram the aviation ndusty, SAF suply remain scarce ‘ad highly concentatet among afew prosiers A multe of projets bing new apacty nln ae planned forthe nex fve years ‘+ tallcome to tutton, SAF capacty could exceed 25 billon gallons by 2026. hese plans ‘mauinize ev SAF jietds nscad ol enewable ces, ts figure cous reach 4 ban Gators. Final, fal planned renewable cesel projects were adsptedo maximize SAF Brosucion insteas, ann capac coud reach 76 bill gallons, 1 2022 Sustainable Aviation Fuel Outlook ‘Share of sustanablaviton fein lol reve ema 2000, 5% Gans of etated SAF cpacty Oy me 2.6 billion $1.50 Sustainable aviation fuel blend by region ~ Economic Transition Scenario ‘SAF share of et uel demand er gan edvertage ofS renewable ‘tees! moras ovr SA 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%. 2020-2022 =a 2620282080 Neath Americas, = Europe i Pace Siecle East Latin America area Sawer Source: Seanberger BloombergNEFDecarbonizing aviation Race to net zero Airine netzero targets by announcement date Number of sitines 40 2020 ADELTA was @ 30 Sear ha, ed OaTARae 20 2019 “ratte 1AG= 0 Neawras sew enn easyJet 0 Jan 1 May 18 Sop 18 Jan20 May20 Sep20 Jan 21 May 21 Sop21 Jan 22 May 22* Souce:BtombemNer company press eases To eed mre BNEF coverage on avon dcatbonzaion See Cimate- Tech imovaton Decarpnang Avaton (st | stmt) Decarterizaton has taken corte stage in th aviaten sector ovr the post two years in a growing number nas and arson Sng ares cu no ecient Ietematnal Ais Group, Qantas and vig Ate wee rng Ihe st arines ost such get ne 2098 ‘As of sun 202,38 ofthe wor’ top anes — move tan haf ot ‘ose tackody BNET” have conmigo atte net 20 ‘missions, otha by 2080 orn some cases, ener For sxampe, US {nes letlve and Assen Anes bohm each net 2607 Sao ‘Aiport ae aso cress sting decerbniston tet ‘orig fo Arps Cou imamational ACD, 202 apa a Europe have commits reaching nt zr by 2060 e sooner tn caber 2021, a namstonal Ar Transport Associaton (ATA) "ston nducn- wid goal fo reach nto carbon meson 2030" to up fem ts prov ambson of 2 0% resucon ‘missions y 2080. Emissions om he avaton nds woe 1.0 gatas (Gt) a 2019, ‘zou fo araund 2 fan ae! cafben soxide emissions, ‘Thiol odo o 2 05C%n 2050 ENEF SETS = oman forse tavel maces teal ‘Aion is gomas he tardes transport sector to docarbonze. ih ‘no Sear, commercay valle slgon fo 0, he mc vl ‘eed iverage a nunbero erent ann ode facets Ax ‘Snbove gel 2 2022 Sustainable Aviation Fuel Outlook BloombergNEFDecarbonizing aviation SAF is a key pillar in airline low-carbon strategies Aitine decarbonization strategy trends Number ofiniatives oo 50 0 ae are 220 202 o anal 10 20 20 40 10 20 20 40 10.20 30 4a 10 20 30 4a 1020" mm other “Urban air moby and lastmie delve ssHydrogen agcrat and supely chain Elec aera Direct sir captre Sustainable aviation fuel = Digtal = Carbon offsets "Ground operation "Fleet modernization Source Slumber EF. ane press reese, aml repos ews. Nie: 20 2022 = Ney 3, 2022 ‘ther elu fr sxe, RAD novel arf den, _Setainsbty intealosns, and seine raat fo mip areas ood redone. ag ‘Te aviation sectors rot o nat zero wil rue the deployment mute ecnoloies and tos acess the nasty, many ot th et commatly avalate yet, LATAas ovine & psa to net 20 that vege four Key toon SAF nas been ntiied o5 3 ‘non cat oO ‘tine pawsy ~ lfrasructure and operational eficlencies o account or Sotemasins aban — offeetingleaon eaptre to const 10% New propulsion technologies su ss none or ct Doweredsrcafto make ip 1% of sbtemet ‘As one ofthe ct leclojs curently commerciale, [SAPS censor the aly oslo oasis cating ‘snaion emissions haere fetes heavy moot IATA ‘ooumap nel zre and nda are segs. ‘NEF is montoring the decarbanization ach of ver 6 maar ‘ttn and caige companies Othe 35 stalepe es {acted opto May 2022 over td ae aaa to SAF researc ad devsopmet sdoton mesma arnestips twtr cmporatecuseers fe aeae u “oi snes roan ve he ako SAF nas ban {occlete So forin 2022 A oferta ection ocked ove ban rest to SAP ira decaboizng ‘emesonsreductens miATAs 3 2022 Sustainable Aviation Fuel Outlook BloombergNEFStructure of the outlook Key considerations Ines epon, BNEF considers the Key mand ang supp side actors Seong te ook fr sstanableaviaton uel. On Me demand Sie. ane actors, erp avetabaty ana paley ‘ecm On the sup se, te even flamed capciy, to campatbon SAF faces wah rele Gel, an cad bofo and tho ale of sistarable estos 606006000 Improving Policy mechanisms Planned projects to Competition with Availabilty of availability at supporting SAF_—_grow production other end-use sustainable rts uptake capacity sectors, feedstocks Source: Blomberg NEF 42022 Sustanabe Aviation Fuel Outlook BloombergNEFDemand tainable Aviation Fuel O BloombergNEFDemand SAF targets 10% by 2030 Airline SAF targets by announcement cate Number ofaiines 20 Qerenrs 26 ‘ & 20 © Lufthansa [oS eRYANAIR Q%rtines UNITED RL 6 LAGS" PLATAm Masha osianeg ietBive__] Ber “Rone ° A DELTA GS cxmivrncine 5 norwegian, FedEx “malas wx? SAS ee yg Be TIC ° AS, sine RANE KLM lan 20 Apr 20 Jul Oct20 Jan21Apr21 Wul2t Oct 24 Souce: BlonbergNEF, company announcements Nee Indus anes tat have seta specie SAF tapet ‘ost ie for SAP To make up 10% come uel vanes by 2030. Wnt ro amen have beeen tne nom win tne ‘ato sacar a owing nub ef cares ae going one tp ‘eter on sting aspect SAF Senin age ‘One your ago. BNEF's 2027 SAF Out atin) there store urta han of aries ath et uch target Ths Nae "sono srand 30 carers comrating to same orf SAF rae, (ner nataualyortvough ev llanes Most hae 2 gal or SAF to makeup 10% of he oval jt fst ansumgton by 2030, we ates have deer poroaches. Ft ‘cate Lata Anes es eget 8 by 203, wee eg ‘ers DHL and Fearn 08 by 2030 Intily. SAF aos were Itt cnn ogres. Nam, Nera hans the US foloned by Ewope Tis no oer the _Ading tthe glbal movment, the Word Economic Foun's ‘loen Ske for Temarow Coalion a gup oan, pots, ‘al suppers and one nasty seniors wong wo advance the transton to neezeo thing a September 2027 ehoutced Fong fo nceve an ot 10% SAF na fs econo becoming gt, uy omars ty ‘aiyen rang cana oetona frase ter average end Fot example Asta fy caer Garis sf 10% SAP use 152030 ond se by 2090 Sea no commercial SAF pedocon ‘iret ents Aste. the ane plane ointiny oes on Sights depart Wom Lendon snd Caroma, sgnng oftake apieenenis Wh BP and Aemetsrespeciel 1 so 6 2022 Sustainable Aviation Fuel Outlook BloombergNEFDemand Offtake agreements SAF deals surge ‘oftake agreements by announced year Number of deals Bilion gallons of 30 30 Ctttake agreements by company Ar umber odes ‘SAF producers ESTE women & gov )arsirs eum Number of dats ‘Wa bL ‘2016 2017 2ove 2019 2020 2021 2022 ‘Deal count Volume. ‘Surce BoondargNEF, pubic annuncemens. Hate 15 2s 25 10 6 20 20 ° SAF purchasers : : os 4 : . aa oft, BY ieoue Ge Source: sbonbegNeF, pubic amouncemarts. Note Volumes ae sed on decosed amounts. BEF dedects Chars depict tp ve SAF roders a pchasrs OY ‘ended quarts oe om volme estimates a court 7 2022 Sustainable Aviation Fuel Outlook fake epreements uhh anes commit prchasing (quantnes of SAF tem a supa at uve cla, becoming Sirmonpice Amounced deasirped a 202" complea ah 2120 an hve doubled 20 farm 202 compare whe soe porodtast yer ‘Sen deals ac 6a means ox aeines to domonstate ten tea apa ana the naoont SAF dusty Foe proses poreany ase devlepng row fchrloges, ake Soremani ara a vaabe fol nexabihig cea of aie ‘demand nd nancies ‘in adiaton to aproing to purchase ture sup ot SAF, many aries ar okng an ato ol supporing to SAF are by Invesingm or partner win spoke ~ For exami, Brtsh Amys hs inestodin Larzalt ads falapratg wh Vloys to doves 2 SAF poo ne UK ‘eraonaly, Aska Anes announced iJ 20222 Maw paras wth Mcrost and Twa am aovelonng SAF Proaucton tough poweo-iqads process Public ncuncamers often doit inclue key das such as ‘fare wel, lore whether closed aunts dere oat SAF or afoady binds win converaceal tual. Tas ‘rakes ut ascatan SAF cua, They therefore dont ‘opresent ata tue ef pied SAF demand ‘That sai, dsclosoa vues a upto 67 bin gatos of SAF {Ata cstinses hat SAF frat purase agement amount 0 STT lon For tet it ot ke agrerentsVacked y BNEF. ‘Soto accompanying Excel BloombergNEFDemand Airports 53 airports have ongoing deliveries of SAF Airports distributing SAF by start year Number of airports oo * 40 0 20 Los Anglos . i l sa o- oll 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 "Batch delivery Ongoing deliveries Source: BlomberNEF, ICAO New York Amsterdam 5 Francisco ‘ottake agreements by airport location Numbor of deals Source: loonbesNEF Hoe Inside oy aorements inh sibend cea ar SAF cary around nao ticked aprement sate an par nation 8 2022 Sustainable Aviation Fuel Outlook SAF erally a pots coninuousty mprrng_Accarang to ‘hointmatonal Cri Aviation Orgnzabon (CAO) 53 apors fave engong doves of SAF. Tiss mor than lee ‘unter 2000, and 213% nee om end-202" Mos of ese spots af custard he US and Europe ough ‘ao xpos nae agions ate begining sow Far ‘rape ny 2022, Nest and oc elvered SAF 1 hod ‘Aways a Nara nematonsArport, Toyo th st vey ot ‘Sato an overseas annem Japan ‘ny 202, Een Mi announced it lvoe tho frst ago of caitfed SAF ~also preduced ty Nest to Sngenore Anes at hans Apert Sngopre ncn sound na te fave agrosants wacked by BNEF ‘bony a aro actin fart tus tobe sup, tse ‘Show at hte se nbs emerging forthe sul of SAP Sen Franostn and Los Anges account rte most Make grein, and BNEF expects hat many ater dons witout @ ‘closed locaton vibe supa to ese ars oe. Calor ‘Snub oraw eso il uo tsb ar! pacy he Low atton Fal Standard (LOPS), wich averdsgonerous eso ‘Seen fuse, naudng SAF “Tho high concanaton of SAF n cota rogions means Intmatona snes lay ay en ecg wh SAF at those Fibs nde to mest ots, and us requre gh lens Gniighisdeparung om thse oeatons. The mann femttable SAF tors carenty S0% wih comerens jet tue butestngs underway byte thes of Boog ond Rol Royce dort achove cotta fe 10% SAF filed AS BloombergNEFDemand ==» wiamw ays aaa Policy oe Recent highlights Tw Bois, any hpi nthe Gols | ea) oly suppor fr SAF cueniyhn one ground, wh most tue! pices evomng aaa Ts Howes te pest 12 ns have sen several patent developments ac0ss the ‘wat ere poy makes are taking eps te supper nd BE dames SAF inustes Below, BNEF hgh smokey cevelepments 2 al HR Sicceenuion ew The EU Fler Spaaoge ces Drees 22: Cons 1" opted Sn ues at- Rb reeo’ pncarPan roan gowrtongat ns) Gen Seep a ‘Avon nctdes plans 0 dy 2022: Members ott European pun cues ens Parhamant QuePs) vole in oar of aiog SA aoe ‘helaigal ash 09 2050, ‘See pane 20 fo tho sional don Sve © cen 1+ Targotor SAF to make wp Japanese atines by 2050, Ineo @ SAF Spectictaxetea ‘tough nt mated + Soezaae 0 forthe penal deep ne Eedens +e. Bierce ‘November 2021: Crested the National ~ ‘Developing a national SAF Betwosene een ome SA sea ‘+ Developing mands to beg 2027 + Settorset0 2% 02005 + Agi 2022: Sone cooperation mr sn 2050 Potey in pce ‘Speenant win Singapae 0 “Targets oct or patiey under loot deveopng green Source’ BteombernE development Yana ee SAF fio ate BloombergNEF 9 2022 Sustainable Aviatiol*uel OutlookDemand Demand scenarios Policies under consideration add 3.6 billion gallons to demand ‘SAF demand scenarios, volume Billon gallons por year lon barrels per day 08 a% ° os o% 6 04 4% 3 02% ° 0% 2020 2022 2024 2028 2028 2030 —£conamic Transton Scenario sous: Boambergher 2020 2022 26 source eombecgneE ete: For mor on Bloomber NEF Ecocome Trastan Scenaro, oe the Arend 26 28 ~——Aozeleratad Plcy Scenario ‘SAF demand scenarios, % of global jet fuel 030 1+ To assess to potenti for SAF demand ging onward, BNEF Cones wo seerancato ete eet poy conions ‘Te Economie Transition Scenario neues eny esting poles, xclusng these proposed er unde consxeatin. other ‘tres. palieem tha counesahoted ar bue on te Devout sige, The scenano neues a SAF speoi x crest ‘eS. pa oe eco pased sion Resucbon Act Nuch of mand ins saa cen by nd atin {eas and ute. BNEF assumes ht tas tat have set 2a orga, bul nt an exe SAP te al each each a he ‘Stare of SAF m thar jet fteonsuion by 2080 Aine bat Inve set SF forget il be te market ders an the cng foro behnd dopoen, moetng tor respecte 2030 tet, Ini scenario, SAF demand esto of la uel demand by 2030 bile gaan pa oar poly acnansms orig beng davaoped and dor Snsdraton, such as he ops EU-wide SAF Hendy ‘manda i worth nang, however, th bore 2030. BNF Gowen erect the EU mancao to have a signet mpactn fing sdopton shove tea esd sadoed by Eicennen Stanes Beyond 2030, BNEF swpecs the nant lo havea much (ester enoct Ins Seon, ete ate aches 7 8 {oan 91106 bon gallon of dora Both scons represent a snapshot of poles under cscsson {NEF tart sneer hana be coneensta. gin mare aures could amneance Ne poles Inge Gor oar 410 2022 Sustainable Aviation Fuel Outlook BloombergNEFSupply BloombergNEFsup Current availability The first movers Desate grin nies an tages tom th avaton indus, SAF supply eins saree and nghly concentrated among few produces. lore 2021, tere wore oy we Tims bal Nesta and Word Energy, producing SAF at conmetia scale Wea feast 18 maths, however, save aw Pojrs have amped en the sano, Though mest newcames Cus afe rodsong SAF n sma batches va co-pocossng a refiners, the major lee fo ranp up predocon me camnng Yeas moet noesng demand Word Energy begon Fulerum Bconomy 2022 i a lage expansions ammo “Grmapats teeter ‘one for 2028 ‘ines at Vienne Arp. bromiced at fs Secret G (ne (OOS stanod uy asfist proaiony SAP ta Reps reticod Sa "8° sages Ye commercal scala in sisirsibetcnes (are Creare a — 1 producing SAF at its ( 1 Soin n Neva ssrearecaona croarinanet \genrog! foaiced antl tigen emery ia sey 2022 Te ‘ely decay Sseweaotie “SOTZP esate sar ‘Semanyn.” “SSE txses on poaing stron plans ‘stares 5 Seu forty 2022 and ‘einen sot leo mao expanion fhe Span eee Gzsoton ine ‘evra oer ants = ote at ag Son wa oes r 7—t T y 2oit oat 2024 7022 ps 6 ans On 2a Nesta says ithas been “TotaEnerpies produces Lsvred tht rst bene cee egestas | evemotens ety, Sweet ‘rons to get aise meaner” ek. sare tom (@IMWY SAL nen 202, Procure wa Franco asmeiasnes: ga", rineyntayens Orgy} — fnlescessneed.e ety poaien SAE st ecesingatroncn, — ( fifhy “erstoomena § SOMM! srasn rays ome ‘eco Epa ane cronies tre tmot | Bagg} capectyinbaieo- TEL” Hhmbet ney gear. Bom beatae seopaaeesar ats ROE! gens . veo Asan reine m sts Source: EtonbergleF Note: Dashed an dates SAF produced va co-procesig a efnanes as oppose oa dedeated foes cues ony commer sete ees BloombergNEF 42 2022 Sustainable Aviation Fuel Outlooksup Capacity outlook Planned projects add up to 2.6 billion gallons ‘Cumulative SAF capacity by region ‘Cumulative SAF capacity by technology Bilion gallons per year 30 25 20 18 1 —_— i —— 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2028 2020 202% 2022 2023 2024 2028 2026 ‘Latin America ‘AsiaPaciic —"Powertodiquis ms AlechoHtojat =Ewrope Noth Amerca —-=Gasifeation FT SHEFA Sour: BlcomberNEF Note: Gry bars stow foal Source AoomberaNEF Note: HEFA = Hykoproceesed Sense a af une 2021 m BNE 2021 SAE Outlook Este and Fay Accs, FT = chor Toph 43 2022 Sustainable Aviation Fuel Outlook Pigjcted capoaiy is base on REFS Global Renate Fue Project che | mia) For detated explanation eho aileent SAF ecrmotgi, S68 ‘Sustainablo Aviatn Fuel Patwaysto Preducon us icin) NEF tracng announced projects under development to tong {eget he avon sector Mast ote ping enewata Sosa fr ood use (60 nxt page ferme a). NEF estas potontial SAF capac based on pres tat have ily sated hey ete to prove SAF mtr produc Sala = ‘ound 60% of jects up tom S0% ast yor For these, BNEF ‘Stmetos a prcrtage ysl of nareplte capac nase, ‘SF prodcton yes ete and can reat vry. rom heat of arcana 58 on maximum of 50% of ameioe copay ‘erat planned SAF caaoty eames a 26 billen galon per Yor of SAF by 2026 Ths enon to aug 2 f obal 091 Semana n 2526, ner et Sar Gute cpasy tr dara 23 Sons ove than ast yoo, 1 ays moe eects For fxampo, ahons Mernee reer cnreson ond Wo Enos expansion Parent poeBoh hae ed Seles, nosed Tori 2003 and 205 especie, Projected 2025 caacy is 045 billon gallons pr yar her han Test years rapa. a5 are progets have been adéed othe Paine, Ie Nests recent decsan to exper fs strc plat ‘SAF cen be prosuoed wth a number ef erent ternaages. The Inereproceseng pave, koh as HEPA. cortrues to ena Into muoer of poses andin scala Hower he shoe ot ower tochaloies © stag am cosa to rf 18% 3 2028, {sthase teccloges fos camara sete BloombergNEF‘Supply Competing with renewable diesel Renewable rivals + Compton wah eter sco capscy and resources poses @ Seon Smita ering enone be pedi rsains Us credits for renewable diesel and US renewable diese! and SAF Stamatis mnkainorenantie een wiimote ‘sustainable aviation fuel ‘margin comparison ‘Scorer tgrtord produce he npr rem S pecgaton Sper gallon + Producers have dees ot exdlty a to whic eto mae, 60 4 epenig on demand peso carives Renewste sais ‘hese fo roses tan SAF and recive mere poly supp. This ‘private casein he US oth ls arn Renee ‘crtiieaton Nur (RIN) ces, and sin Catto -LOFS. ‘s coer (Sede Due os ouer energy dens, SAF eas over of bath ‘credit + wihhiaher producon costs and ewer cents. Bloomber Green ‘magn tobe around St Sign (gn) n 2022 30 2 + Lownakors oo taking stops orarow tho gap. The US Inaion Reduction Act wen passed ha House on August 12, cues 9 ow SAF tax creat, replocng the $ gal Bees! Tax Creat BTC) {Rat SAF urna recves Eighle SAF must have at east 04 ts col loner Hecyce omissions cerared wh convent eu. The et (Seas Stars at st 25a) and aos ncomentaly dpanaing on he {tals omssionssaungs, 1981 75iga fora 100% eauchen ‘+ Atcurert RN and LCFS pices, Ps wl pe eae in avr o SAF ° ° Ger erate dal ters of rican rhe ox re Renewable dass! Jan 22. Feb 22 Mar22 Apr: un 22 aly aoceroe adoption BNEF doset expect to prom mass “ le dlesel Jan 22 Feb) 22 Mar 22, Aor22 May22 un 22 Siting at enews desl ast, 2 sr op evar of sar Renewable 5175 wou ay beaut to ofthe ge roduc costs Sauce Bloonbegher, StaFuce ine, Cattone Ar SOUR BOMDeNET, Gren ere Nate Marg SAF_ BNE exact tha tax cai ave agree wt on he ‘Resouces Bord Cod vcs ax of August 2020 D4 RIN Olu RIN, LCFS ane Bade aCe mare nascent SAF terneegles on te clsp of eonmersalaaon £5173, LES S110 8 Carbon meray = 30 gCO2ant ths konto and anfeon Fecha Tops 44 2022 Sustainable Aviation Fuel Outlook BloombergNEF‘supply Competing with ren SAF supply scenarios Giobal SAF supply scenarios ewable diesel capacity (base case) Bilion gallons per year 8 16 6 2 4 8 2 4 ° ° 2020 202% 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Max Medium Source: tombe Base Bilion galone per year 2020 202% 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 SAF capacty (LHS) Se Other (LHS) —inpiod SAF yold (RHS) SAF as a proportion of global renewable fuel SAF share of capacity 20% 15% 10% Souve: BloambenNEF Note: Other dertes nameplate ‘oaey oftanewabl coe and SAF prowess Prodet yes ensisle uss acts re ba can way ‘aly 2s podoiscansuten beeen renewed Besa and Sar nared on make conatons. To mesint thes, BNEF consicrs bee sup scones ~ Bane: As deta on peg 13, is scenario meudes ony post have anqcunced tay tan apace SAF as prt ofthat react late For poets al dont dscase rented els, NEF assures a dtu based en he Medium: BNEF inca th sara rjc above but ‘Sums ase ose fe cone to mame SAF ys Max Ths soenaro ncudes a projets, whether tay pont Produce SAF rot and asemes ore condo Imanmumn SA mace The resus mj ove ha of ‘ape bg wed for SAF reduc We ts hay ‘riety at poets wl bth materaize an mae [SAF ths sconao sores as an pe tonto mars ‘Those seenaras sun @ ange of 261976 gaons of ‘otal SAF sup by 2026, oe Bo ba tue demens Dette ETS. nae words, tees pte or SAP sity 10 De anvicantr higher sation neenves xe to enesage rosoors to sch apace ava om enewab ose SAF i, however, teginng to gon market tae. In GEFs base ‘inp soonno, SAP's share of ramepoi capac 9 enawabis {eaaciness ett iow tom 25m 2020 8 Ten 2020, ‘Tass amen by ft stre of mascot tehaloges tht bortze SAP. a6 woes age HEFA poet rgetng Nh SAF ‘los sud Pritos 6 mth US, an TetaEnerpes m Europe, 45 2022 Sustainable Aviation Fuel Outlook BloombergNEFFeedstock a ee eee Waste wins + NEF anepe cance eres etc sy Ins 2021 SAF Cue oe |i, ch nls tutor ‘eat on te metodoingy ant essuons, Potential SAF supply based on global Potential SAF supply trom waste fats ols and. syer excuses cop fesstoks me nat wo main feedstock availablity estimates ‘greases, versus SAF demand scenarios ‘easens Fish de os Sed, meting st a tacon ba et Bilion gallons of SAF of global et fuel _Bilion gallos of SAF Sof gobaljet fuel ful damand mtn crops cou couse sicantaorse moocts ex competion wih food and bedstead 10 00% 12 8% —Sooranoe + Forotample, he Acces Polcy Scenario 7 5% ft ula 220 ure ate ot py ena . ‘rent ba soybean al precucbon. A, gba vopsabe of %0 G0% 9 8% poy. mcuang pln rapesod and sofa ware canered Forestry residues inf SAF @ woul opesant around 3% of gj ol demand ‘+The socon reason that pls icreasingy phasing out rps. 60 40% 8 ayy” Tomar sy ope nanan Doteedsck In Calton poley maar are considering cabpiaa ‘Su unas te site's LCF program. Crops wi howeve. Ce Sind forthe US SAF ox cock Som gaat 12 ormere ea 30 20% 2 m + GNEF xtests sige hat st fetes ald most ° om 0 0% Saegensy the caren otek os. mart oud are zi20 2022 2024 2028 2028 2090 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2020 ‘inv conan ae so0n = 2028 “+ Bose on BNEF's demand sananos ty 2090 25.5094 of SAF ‘Sippy woud need to cme fom oes fectolanes ne (gasieabon Fche-Tepsch acontiovet or power oad, 0 48 2022 Sustainable Aviation Fuel Outlook BloombergNEF = ecoeratad Policy Scenario. rename Transtton Seana Source: BleomberieF Source: BooreenNErThe outlook tainable Aviation Fuel O BloombergNEFouttook — The outlook Putting it all together ‘SAF blend by region Economic Transition Global SAF demand and supply scenarios ‘Sseenario SAF share oft ful demand Bilion gals per year 1% 2 10% 10 a% 8 ox 6 % 4 a 2 0% 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2080 north America — Europe Sse Pacie = Nada East Lan Arica = Arica Demand -Acoslerated Poly Scenario, Souce:BembaGEF Nets Based onthe ETS Source: BobagNEF Note Gray brs dante 2026 ined on ass 10 planed capacty 48 2022 Sustainable Aviation Fuel Outlook ° 2000 2022 2024 2026 2028 2080 Inte seonaro, the gobl SAF lend wl 0 apy to 585 ot ‘ba el demand by 2030, Ths predate by ating cin te US and Evepe Norn Aronca's evra SAF bene ‘oes 9% whe Eure reaches 7, Theup hese repens aS Sear eades noms of SAF aderton ches ate dso ruin, ‘The Asi. Poifcragon APAC)'s ot reach abn of 25% by 2aabin ne ETS ap tm ts nlast yours outack~ eu seer ger atins te agen, ncn antes and ANA have since Set ambitous SAP goa Given aatons ncuding China, pan and New Zool have bogun sting atone romans to bost Somat SAF markets tes ure hs te pont == Sonar Comparing he demand ana surly Sensis, gab suply seems neck meet demand the nea em ~ proved proe!s Matoralze on sedue ~ as dand grows ey ba Years Fenover boron 2025, donand sas amp up ae qucey ‘paces panmad capt Inthe Accelerate Poly Sconano, demand wxoeds planned SAF ‘apncy by 2027 wien could be met by eter maxing SAF Producton yes at sing oses, a casein erable coset ant to svach io eaton fut However by 2089 tre wb a ee pawinvesneat me cits meet owing eran NEF supay sconaros ar basd on announced pres one, those imsines ened fo 2026, bu doesnt arsume ay poets beyond ts prt fesch 2050 Projects an face dtoys rabendormant For exanele, caren reting marge ean ae ents oat convesone. Ths exapoting to ouent retedgronth to 2030 coud pant an ove opis BloombergNEFoutlook Regional deep dives us US demand and supply scenarios Bion gallons pee year % of US jot fuel demand 4 10% 3 % 2 o% ‘Supply scenarios, 1 2% ° a a a om ‘a20 2021 2022 2023 2024-025 026 ONT 2028 2020 2020 ‘Supply max lim Supply-medium mmm Supply-base ——US SAF demand (ETS) Source: BloomberlEF Not: Demsnd based onthe ETS outined on gaze 10 Gray bars dnote 2028, planes caaoty Actual SAF pli are Bexio ard can ea vay, 419 2022 Sustainable Aviation Fuel Outlook Us Bites Gut emia) 2021 us Bitals Cuteok Paty (i tcl) The US fhe wor’ argos mare for SAF Swoosh Concentrated m Calf, da ots LOFS pogrm sth evards ‘Shon fnew rode tase on the fuss erbon ons Though SAF was ony aod tothe sche in 2079, sup has gromn ‘oy Nowe tan miton alone wets supp mth sats 02" (rer the past yor, however, the sucess ofthe progr has caused ‘sn eversuppy of eredte Preshave supe 0 ast hatha vloe oer ag, weakening produce marge ad iene or en SupoetsThs coud potty sow mornentum the budng SAF ‘aise. The Calta hi Resour Bord (CARE) = reve ‘Changes to to ogra to Suppor poss ae corn te Seu SUPB ‘hevast majo cartes trenewabia Geral teat SAE State ye ge terencs int Moa an Hoe sii ‘canons. nthe base spy scaano, SAF capo mates 1% of UiStapnety aa conperes wn 28 n Eo ana To ea The reason fxs he preferential icant and aeanomies 8 Socussd on gag eugh ths snow bang aoested a= BoIEy makers push weugh i nflien Rducbon Ac, whch cons The he House ams or 3 iln gals of SAF sup by 2030. BNEF aeseszos hath gt etn reach. # most land renowable dese rcs adap capaci onto ori SAF US SAF demands stto grow to 3.2bilon gallons by 2000 ine ETS Due tote song praorence aren preducars renee CGesel SAF supply ends be exhausting by 2000 acess ht Brees, capctySatng of pat BloombergNEFoutlook oo Regional deep dives Europe Europe demand and supply scenarios Bilion gallons per year ‘of Europe jot fue demand 25 108% 20 e% 15 % 10 a 05 m% a o% 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2028 ©2027 2028 2028 2080 “=Supply-max sm Supply-medium mum Supply-base —-Europe SAF demand (ETS) Source: BloomberEF Not: Demand based onthe ETS outined on gaze 10 Gray bars dnote 2026, planes caaoty Actual SAF pli are Bexio ard can ea vay, ‘Te European mast she fstregen a whch counties nets sabe SAF locing mands. Nowy wos th st 0 so 182000 folowod by Swoon 202, then Fraga 2022 ny 2021, th Ewopson Commission proposed a SAF blending ‘ancat wih ts Por 55 pachago. Ts woul srtin 2025 a [Ba ton Sin 200, evenly reach 63% in 2080 oor Ise, tne Euopoan Pariomen lad fa hereasng he ‘anda to ven 200. The deinion of SAP was concureety expands to ude renewable elety ana hytagen wie ‘Sinnestng ht some feedsocs neluing ana at cold be ‘ny ebb unt 2034 Food crop based SA. he paola ‘Soybean of was empely excluded forthe egy cine an terefre does nude te proposed EU-wide ands Yet 720%. demand evenecs fhe 9 pe eacnng 73508 ‘ines dive usta ‘onthe sippy si, nike inthe US, considrble prion of Europe's lames capcty area sod fr SAE Ths sh lage part ven by szable pret plnning hgh SAF yale, ‘Toalenages' Grandpa projec and he expansion of Nesie’s ‘otis acy, seeded to 2024 and 208 especialy Assaming sland src meenalze on ie, Euop looks wal ‘nvack o moet mand es grows — wih olor even spare (apa fic cul be expats er siichod to onaute desl ‘iwi be short aves hovever es dma stars ok up By 2030, new capa llbo needs to mest eran tha PON invesment nw orcs by adcingoxsing renenati (deel acter ota sen toavatan fs 20 2022 Sustainable Aviation Fuel Outlook BloombergNEFAppendix Further detail and definitions 21 20: tainable Aviation Fuel Outlook BloombergNEFAppendix — Scenarios and outlooks at BNEF ‘Tes research fms part fhe ray f ene ransion scars ot NEF + Tear sino ves ONE eae 89 Eero Tanson Sina ET) Ths scsna emolys a camtinatono nes frm market ans, nat Iodelnaconsuner ola and wancbnced ena fo eacbe He Gasoynat ad (Stason comsmataly avaiable ocnaloges ne absence Mow plc Tras Ent uncover na undying conor undamerals he energy anton 3250, Ingdstono meETS, BNEF doves a ene of gbal, stabs, and cout lve senanne Th nls a se of cate scnanos iat swesbotepthways fo ‘edice greenhouse gn ensssone ine wih the Pane Cima Aareemet Scenarios ar aue-ocusad smuatons combing a aunbara nesta Daramters int an moray conestnt naotve, They se predominant used or Irecunolengorm nwosbgtve sos ed may ave clo sorsibes Koy “Tmnbse Senanos der rom feet en 6 valy shorter erm predetons of ‘Altus nts patter to me ETS, ures ence saad 22 2022 Sustainable Aviation Fuel Outlook BloombergNEFAppendix Pathway definitions + Tare are ube of ways oposuce SAF tat af in varus stages of development, om smatseledomonstaton plato thse rendy avatale and approved fr use ammmercie crt Beow ance he man echt et oan produce SAF and te Key crates ydroprcessed esters and fty acids HEFA) Hyarorocessed estes and faty cts or EFA, temnaloy by athe most ommerilized ata to prods SAFS. nthe acs, pd eestocks suchas vegetable ls ans ‘st ts, holon ad used cokng oF, ae deoxygenated and hyeprocessed fo produce ocr melecues. Thess moles then ge Uwough a tring ess Sear thorn eon rues ne sel na ea, Fischer-Tropsch Fischer-Tropsch comvars a sytesis 95 or ‘sings. made up ef hytogen and carbon monoxe ino ashe rue ol ofc sing a catastin avast: Sento ‘sve, heres syorae car tre be fore reff soparta mo 8 ange of rosie Tho Fiche Topsch process hg exe because he syns MPU cabo SrNed Sema to Lcd (RL) Th te ost common fxm of lcs Topseh stasis avion ul, Sad mass tha unipl sad wel, areal aed oes wast ‘verted to gas vou gastcaton and puedo sygas. Ths te of Fischer-Topsch sess 890 Kon 89 asteaton* FT + Gasto-Lqua (6): Th syngas an aso te produced by reforming bi-methane using steam. Some companies produce dase! and jt Tom ntl gas vi th Gt process Dutsince nes uals es oss-dsved, hey dont bn sipicantenoih emssrn reductions io be cased a SAFs nd weit ded ths note + PoworteLuid Pi) Sing is prodod fom sects of var using enenabio tect and CO2_Elotohss comets vate fo hycogen, which hen converted io ‘Sinaes wih CO2 eine trough areca eapue or Fem ager suo tks bogas. Porro ques, also Ko as syste le fl, ar cnadeed fo have hgh Bont an atematve auton fs toy dont ry on open estos and ean have exter low or von gave ele coon amons. However, he feenhelogy ‘emain inte deveopmert phase snd suey ntadtosmat-sale demonstsen pas Acoholto4et ‘Acahostojal cones ots ke ethana or o-oo amixofnydrocabors. Ethanol or s-bssnaltyplealy produces va temeniaon of sugar a statch egs eco fd Sugscane but can also be darwes tom lgneceldesc mera he aplatual tes esdues. The dca than goes veugh detwaton clgamerzaton a Iereprocessng to pedicehyrocarbunslncluing esa a jul Formore, sce Sustanane Avatun Fue! Pathways 0 Production ws | maa) BloombergNEF 23 2022 Sustainable Aviation Fuel OutlookAppendi Carbon intensity of SAF by feedstock and technology gCO2e/MJ 80 60 40 20 0 £2 £e¢ Segee & § © 8 8 8 & > % ¢ Ee = e & 8 5 g ze 2p? Sas eee 5 & Alcohol-to-_Aleohol-to-jet - jet - iso-butanol ethanol HEFA Woody crops fil Forestry residue ff Agri. residue jf Gasification + Fischer- Tropsch Sours: BoombemEFs Sustainatie Avaon Fos! Patways to Proton (us| ismna Nols: 90026 = grams cf carbon desi equivalent por megaous of nergy ICO = ‘ead cooing oF NSW = mancpal sed waste 24 2022 Sustainable Aviation Fuel Outlook BloombergNEFCopyright and disclaimer copyright {© Bloomberg Finance LP. 2022. Ths publications the copyright of Bloomberg Finance LP. in connection with loombergNEF. No potion ofthis document may be photocopied, reproduced, scannad into an electronic syst or ansmited, forarded or disrbuted in any way without por consent of BleombergNEF. 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