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What Is Cash Flow Analysis
What Is Cash Flow Analysis
Cash flow analysis is the process of examining the amount of cash that flows
into a company and the amount of cash that flows out to determine the net
amount of cash that is held. Once it's known whether cash flow is positive or
negative, company management can look for opportunities to alter it to
improve the outlook for the business.
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What Is Free Cash Flow (FCF)?
Free cash flow (FCF) is the cash a company generates after taking into consideration cash
outflows that support its operations and maintain its capital assets. In other words, free cash flow
is the cash left over after a company pays for its operating expenses (OpEx) and capital
expenditures (CapEx).
FCF is the money that remains after paying for items such as payroll, rent, and taxes, and a
company can use it as it pleases. Knowing how to calculate free cash flow and analyze it will
help a company with its cash management. FCF calculation will also provide investors with
insight into a company’s financials, helping them make better investment decisions, and can be
easily calculated using Excel or other spreadsheet software.
Free cash flow is an important measurement since it shows how efficient a company is at
generating cash. Investors use free cash flow to measure whether a company might have enough
cash for dividends or share buybacks. In addition, the more free cash flow a company has, the
better it is positioned to pay down debt and pursue opportunities that can enhance its business,
making it an attractive choice for investors.
Free Cash Flow= Operating Cash Flow −Capital ExpendituresFree Cash Flow=
Operating Cash Flow −Capital Expenditures
Using Sales Revenue
Using sales revenue focuses on the revenue that a company generates through its business and
then subtracts the costs associated with generating that revenue. This method utilizes the income
statement and balance sheet as the source of information. To calculate FCF, locate sales or
revenue on the income statement, subtract the sum of taxes and all operating costs (listed as
“operating expenses”), which include items such as cost of goods sold (COGS) and selling,
general, and administrative costs (SG&A).
Finally, subtract the required investments in operating capital, also known as the net investment
in operating capital, which is derived from the balance sheet.
Free Cash Flow=Net Operating Profit After Taxes −Net Investment in Operatin
g Capitalwhere:Net Operating Profit After Taxes=Operating Income ×(1 - Tax
Rate)and where:Operating Income=Gross Profits−Operating ExpensesFree Cash
Flow=Net Operating Profit After Taxes −Net Investment in Operating Capitalw
here:Net Operating Profit After Taxes=Operating Income ×(1 - Tax Rate)and
where:Operating Income=Gross Profits−Operating Expenses
The calculation for net investment in operating capital is the same as described above.
Using Amortization and Depreciation
To calculate free cash flow another way, locate the income statement, balance sheet, and cash
flow statement. Start with net income and add back charges for depreciation and amortization.
Make an additional adjustment for changes in working capital, which is done by subtracting
current liabilities from current assets. Then subtract capital expenditure (or spending on plants
and equipment):
Free Cash Flow = Net income plus depreciation / amortization minus change in working capital
minus capital expenditure
It might seem odd to add back depreciation/amortization since it accounts for capital spending.
The reasoning behind the adjustment is that free cash flow is meant to measure money being
spent right now, not transactions that happened in the past. This makes FCF a useful instrument
for identifying growing companies with high up-front costs, which may eat into earnings now
but have the potential to pay off later.
Macy's cash flow statement for the fiscal year ending 2022, according to the company’s 10-K
statement, indicates:
To calculate the free cash flow, we subtract capital expenditures from operating cash flow:
We can see that Macy’s has $446 million in free cash flow, which can be used to pay dividends,
expand operations, and deleverage its balance sheet (in other words, reduce debt).
From 2020 until now, Macy’s capital expenditures have been increasing due to its growth in
stores, while its operating cash flow has been decreasing, resulting in decreasing free cash
flows.
That being said, a shrinking FCF is not necessarily a bad thing, particularly if increasing capital
expenditures are being used to invest in the growth of the company, which could increase
revenues and profits in the future.
Cons
Advantages
Free cash flow can provide a significant amount of insight into the financial health of a company.
Because free cash flow is made up of a variety of components in the financial statement,
understanding its composition can provide investors with a lot of useful information.
Of course, the higher the free cash flow, the better. But we have already seen from our Macy’s
example that a declining free cash flow is not always bad if the reason is from further
investments in the company that poise it to reap larger rewards down the line.
In addition, cash flow from operations takes into consideration increases and decreases in assets
and liabilities, allowing for a deeper understanding of free cash flow. So for example, if accounts
payable continued to decrease, it would signify that a company is paying its suppliers faster.
If accounts receivable were decreasing, it would mean that a company is receiving payments
from its customers faster.
Now, if accounts payable was decreasing because suppliers wanted to be paid quicker but
accounts receivable was increasing because customers weren’t paying quickly enough, this could
result in decreased free cash flow, since money is not coming in quickly enough to meet the
money going out, which could result in problems for the company down the line.
The overall benefits of a high free cash flow, however, mean that a company can pay its debts,
contribute to growth, share its success with its shareholders through dividends, and have
prospects for a successful future.
Disadvantages
One drawback to using the free cash flow method is that capital expenditures can vary
dramatically from year to year and among different industries. That’s why it’s critical to measure
FCF over multiple periods and against the backdrop of a company’s industry.
It’s important to note that an exceedingly high FCF might be an indication that a company is not
investing in its business properly, such as updating its plant and equipment. Conversely, negative
FCF might not necessarily mean a company is in financial trouble, but rather, investing heavily
in expanding its market share, which would likely lead to future growth.
Value investors often look for companies with high or improving cash flows but with
undervalued share prices. Rising cash flow is often seen as an indicator that future growth is
likely.
Free cash flow is one of many financial metrics that investors use to analyze the health of a
company. Other metrics investors can use include return on investment (ROI), the quick ratio,
the debt-to-equity (D/E) ratio, and earnings per share (EPS).
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A share of stock represents equity ownership in that company. When a firm's board of directors
decides to take their company public, usually through an initial public offering (IPO), they
authorize the number of shares that will be initially offered. This amount of outstanding stock is
commonly referred to as the "float." If that company later issues additional stock (often
called secondary offerings) they have increased the float and therefore diluted their stock: the
shareholders who bought the original IPO now have a smaller ownership stake in the company
than they did prior to the new shares being issued.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Dilution is the reduction in shareholders' equity positions due to the issuance or creation of new
shares.
Dilution also reduces a company's earnings per share (EPS), which can have a negative impact on
share prices.
Dilution can occur when a firm raises additional equity capital, though existing shareholders are
usually disadvantaged.
Understanding Dilution
Dilution is simply a case of cutting the equity "cake" into more pieces. There will be more pieces
but each will be smaller. So, you will still get your piece of the cake only that it will be a smaller
proportion of the total than you had been expecting, which is often not desired.
While it primarily affects equity ownership positions, dilution also reduces the company's
earnings per share (EPS, or net income divided by the float), which often depresses stock prices
in the market. For this reason, many public companies publish estimates of both non-diluted and
diluted EPS, which is essentially a "what-if-scenario" for investors in the case new shares are
issued. Diluted EPS assumes that potentially dilutive securities have already been converted to
outstanding shares.
Share dilution may happen any time a company raises additional equity capital, as newly created
shares are issued to new investors. The potential upside of raising capital in this way is that the
funds the company receives from selling additional shares can improve the company's
profitability and growth prospects, and by extension the value of its stock.
Understandably, share dilution is not often viewed favorably by existing shareholders, and
companies sometimes initiate share repurchase programs to help curb the effects of dilution.
Note that stock splits do not create dilution. In situations where a company splits its stock,
current investors receive additional shares while the price of the shares is adjusted accordingly,
keeping their percentage ownership in the company static.
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CALCULATE
Both the executive stock option plan as well as the acquisitions are expected to dilute the current
pool of outstanding shares. Further, the proxy statement had a proposal for the issuance of newly
authorized shares, which suggests the company expects more dilution in the near-term.
Dilution Protection
Shareholders typically resist dilution as it devalues their existing equity. Dilution
protection refers to contractual provisions that limit or outright prevent an investor's stake in a
company from being reduced in later funding rounds. The dilution protection feature kicks in if
the actions of the company will decrease the investor's percentage claim on assets of the
company.
For example, if an investor's stake is 20%, and the company is going to hold an additional
funding round, the company must offer discounted shares to the investor to at least partially
make up for the dilution of the overall ownership stake. Dilution protection provisions are
generally found in venture capital funding agreements. Dilution protection is sometimes referred
to as "anti-dilution protection."
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KEY TAKEAWAYS
For a company, the ROCE trend over the years can also be an important
indicator of performance. Investors tend to favor companies with stable and
rising ROCE levels over companies where ROCE is volatile or trending lower.
ROCE is one of several profitability ratios that can be used when analyzing a
company’s financial statements for profitability performance. Other ratios can
include the following:
ROE
Return on assets (ROA)
Return on invested capital (ROIC)
Also known as operating income, EBIT shows how much a company earns
from its operations alone without interest on debt or taxes. It is calculated by
subtracting the cost of goods sold (COGS) and operating expenses from
revenues.
Capital employed is very similar to invested capital, which is used in the
ROIC calculation. Capital employed is found by subtracting current liabilities
from total assets, which ultimately gives you shareholders’ equity plus long-
term debts. Instead of using capital employed at an arbitrary point in time,
some analysts and investors may choose to calculate ROCE based on
the average capital employed, which takes the average of opening and
closing capital employed for the time period under analysis.
Cons of ROCE