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Economic Growth in Canada and The United States in The Information Age
Economic Growth in Canada and The United States in The Information Age
The Industry Canada Research Publications Program provides a forum for the
analysis of key micro-economic challenges in the Canadian economy and contributes
to an informed public debate on these issues. Under the direction of the Micro-
Economic Policy Analysis Branch, the Program’s research paper series features peer-
reviewed analytical working papers and policy-related discussion papers written by
specialists on micro-economic issues of broad importance.
The views expressed in these papers do not necessarily reflect the views of Industry
Canada or of the federal government.
EDITOR: DALE W. JORGENSON
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on Strategis, the Department’s online business information site, at http://strategis.gc.ca.
Comments should be addressed to:
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Table of Contents
CONTRIBUTORS i
FOREWORD iii
1. INTRODUCTION 1
Dale W. Jorgenson
Abstract 7
Introduction 7
The Extended Accounting Framework 11
Set Up 11
The Production Possibility Frontier 12
Data 14
The Growth Resurgence Quantified 28
Contributions of Information Technology 28
Sources of Economic Growth 36
Sources of Labour Productivity Growth 42
The Sectoral Sources of Multifactor Productivity Growth 44
Motivation 44
Methodology and Data Sources 44
Empirical Results 46
Concluding Remarks 50
Endnotes 52
Acknowledgments 54
Bibliography 54
3. INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH:
EVIDENCE FROM CANADIAN INDUSTRIES 57
Wulong Gu & Weimin Wang
Abstract 57
Introduction 57
Data Sources 59
Output and Productivity Growth for the Business Sector 60
Is the Productivity Growth Revival Linked to IT? 64
Is the Productivity Acceleration Widespread? 64
Aggregation over Industries 66
The Link Between IT and the Productivity Revival
Across Industries 68
Robustness Checks 71
The Role of Human Capital and Trade Openness for
Productivity Growth 74
Conclusion 76
Endnotes 77
Acknowledgments 78
Bibliography 78
Appendix 81
Abstract 83
Introduction 83
Empirical Framework 89
Industry Analysis 89
Industrial Contributions to Aggregate Productivity Growth 91
Data and Measurement Issues 94
Capital Input 95
Labour Input 98
Growth Accounting Results 100
Sources of Economic Growth at the Industry Level 100
Sources of Labour Productivity Growth at the Industry Level 114
Aggregate Growth and Sector Contributions 127
Conclusions 149
Endnotes 150
Acknowledgments 153
Bibliography 153
Appendix A 157
Appendix B 160
Wulong Gu
Statistics Canada
Tarek M. Harchaoui
Statistics Canada
Mun S. Ho
Resources for the Future
Dale W. Jorgenson
Harvard University
Bilkis Khanam
Industry Canada
Someshwar Rao
Industry Canada
Jianmin Tang
Industry Canada
Faouzi Tarkhani
Statistics Canada
Weimin Wang
Industry Canada
i
Foreword
iii
Introduction:
Dale W. Jorgenson
The purpose of this volume is to compare and analyze the sources of economic
growth in Canada and the United States over the past two decades. This repre-
sents a continuation of the research program initially reported in the Industry
Canada monograph, Industry-level Productivity and International Competitiveness
between Canada and the United States, edited by Jorgenson and Lee (2001). The
current volume incorporates important new data on productivity in Canada
presented in the Statistics Canada monograph, Productivity Growth in Canada –
2002, edited by Baldwin and Harchaoui (2003).
1
Jorgenson
Both Canada and the United States experienced a slowdown during the period
1988-1995 and a sharp rebound after 1995. The slowdown in Canada before 1995
was much more severe than in the United States. The recovery in Canada was
powered by a strong revival of multifactor productivity growth, a surge in the
contribution of non-IT capital services, and rapid growth of the contribution of
labour services from non-college educated workers. The contribution of invest-
ment in IT rose in both countries, but grew far more rapidly in the United States.
The contribution of non-IT investment jumped considerably in both countries.
The surge in multifactor productivity growth in Canada after 1995 was strongest
in IT-intensive industries. Gu and Wang attribute this to IT-induced organiza-
tional innovation and network effects. They find that IT-intensive industries
made relatively little contribution to multifactor productivity growth before
1995. They also find that industries that had a larger share of university-educated
workers made larger productivity gains after 1995. A possible explanation is that
these workers are complementary to investments in IT equipment and software.
The Canadian KLEMS data base employed by Gu and Wang incorporates the
results of recent research on the impact of changes in the composition of the
Canadian labour force by age, sex, and education by Gu, Kaci, Maynard, and
Sillamaa (2003). It also includes new estimates of capital inputs for Canadian
industries by Harchaoui and Tarkhani (2003). These estimates reflect differences
2
Introduction
in the behaviour of investment goods prices, for example, between IT and non-IT
investment goods. The estimates also incorporate differences in service lives,
depreciation rates, and tax treatments among different types of assets.
In Chapter 4, Ho, Rao, and Tang compare the sources of output growth for
34 industries in Canada and the United States. They show that IT-producing
industries were the sources of much of the acceleration in multifactor productiv-
ity growth in the United States after 1995. The proportion of university-educated
workers in the employed labour force is much smaller in Canada than the United
States. Growth in the contribution of these workers to the growth of labour input
was another important source of the U.S. growth resurgence in the late 1990s.
The IT-producing industries grew at phenomenal rates in both Canada and the
United States during the period 1981-2000, far exceeding the average of other
industries. These industries contributed substantially more to U.S. than Canadian
economic growth because of their greater relative importance in the U.S. econ-
omy. All three groups of industries contributed to the acceleration of economic
growth in Canada and the United States after 1995. However, most of the accel-
eration in Canada was due to the non-IT-intensive industries, while in the United
States, the acceleration took place mainly in the IT-intensive industries.
The results of this study are critically important in evaluating the prospects for
future growth in Canada and the United States. Jorgenson, Ho, and Stiroh (2003)
have shown that the rapid pace of economic growth in the United States during
the late 1990s was not sustainable. This involved an expansion of hours worked at
twice the rate of the growth of the working age population. The unemployment
rate plummeted and the rate of participation in the labour force increased. None-
theless, prospects for potential growth at sustainable rates have improved.
3
Jorgenson
Jorgenson, Ho, and Stiroh (2003) have undertaken a similar, but less detailed,
analysis of prospects for future Canadian economic growth. They project more
rapid growth for the Canadian labour force than the United States. Labour quality,
defined as labour input per hour worked, is also projected to grow more rapidly
in Canada than in the United States as Canadian levels of educational attainment
approach U.S. levels. However, multifactor productivity growth is projected to
be slower in Canada than in the United States, mainly due to the greater relative
importance of IT-producing industries in the United States.
Growth rates for the two countries are gradually converging, but the growth
potential for Canada remains about half a percentage point below the United
States. In both countries, projections of future growth are characterized by sub-
stantial uncertainties. For the United States, these arise from the role of IT in-
vestment and the future growth of multifactor productivity in the IT-producing
industries. For Canada, the growth rate of multifactor productivity outside these
industries and the rate at which IT equipment and software can be substituted
for other types of capital inputs are associated with important uncertainties.
Bibliography
Baldwin, J.R., and T.M. Harchaoui, eds. Productivity Growth in Canada – 2002. Ottawa:
Statistics Canada Catalogue No. 15-204-XPE, 2003.
Gu, W., M. Kaci, J.-P. Maynard, and M. Sillamaa. “The Changing Composition of the Ca-
nadian Workforce and its Impact on Productivity Growth.” In Productivity Growth
in Canada - 2002. Edited by J.R. Baldwin, and T.M. Harchaoui. Ottawa: Statistics
Canada Catalogue No. 15-204-XPE, 2003.
Harchaoui T.M., and F. Tarkhani. “A Comprehensive Revision of the Capital Input Meth-
odology for Statistics Canada Multifactor Productivity.” In Productivity Growth in
Canada - 2002. Edited by J.R. Baldwin, and T.M. Harchaoui. Ottawa: Statistics Canada
Catalogue No. 15-204-XPE, 2003.
Jorgenson, D.W., ed. “Information Technology and the U.S. Economy.” In Economic Growth
in the Information Age. Cambridge: MIT Press, 2002, pp. 1-42.
Jorgenson, D.W., M.S. Ho, and K.J. Stiroh. “Growth in U.S. Industries and Investments in
Information Technology and Higher Education.” In Measuring Capital in the New
Economy. Edited by C. Corrado, J.C. Haltiwanger, and D. Sichel. Chicago: University
of Chicago Press. Forthcoming.
4
Introduction
⎯⎯⎯. “Lessons for Canada from the U.S. Growth Resurgence.” International Productivity
Monitor 6 (Spring 2003): pp. 3-18.
Jorgenson, D.W., and F.C. Lee, eds. Industry-level Productivity and International Competitiveness
between Canada and the United States. Research Monograph. Ottawa: Industry Canada,
2001.
5
Information Technology and Economic Growth in the 2
Canadian and U.S. Private Economies
Abstract
T HIS STUDY USES NEW DATA at both the aggregate and industry levels to shed
additional evidence on the sources of growth for labour productivity and eco-
nomic growth in the Canadian and U.S. private economies over the period 1981-
2000. The principal innovation is the incorporation of the service flows of con-
sumer durables and housing in the aggregate production framework. Another
feature of this study is the use of new industry data and the distinction between
university and non-university workers to capture the extent to which invest-
ments in higher education and information technology have contributed to eco-
nomic growth and productivity performance. The new results confirm the basic
story laid out in our earlier work—while information technology accounted for
much of the U.S. productivity revival, it played a modest role in Canada, thereby
suggesting different forces at work in the two countries.
Introduction
7
Harchaoui, Tarkhani & Khanam
The focus is on the link between information technology and its effect on eco-
nomic growth and productivity growth.1
There are many examples of cutting-edge businesses in the United States, such as
IBM and Wal-Mart, that produce and use information technology effectively.
While it is often argued that Canada is not a major producer of information tech-
nology, research conducted in Canada shows that information technology con-
tributed substantially to the growth of gross domestic product (GDP), capital
formation and productivity.2 It is clear that the impact of investment in informa-
tion technology on both the Canadian and U.S. economies has been substantial.
But how and to what degree do the effects of this investment differ between the
two countries?
Harchaoui, et al. (2002) outlined that the late 1990s were exceptional in compari-
son with the growth experience of the Canadian and the U.S. business sectors
over the past quarter century as a whole. Although growth rates have not re-
turned to those of the golden age of the two economies in the early 1960s, the
data nonetheless clearly revealed a remarkable transformation. After more than
20 years of sluggish multifactor productivity growth, 4 of the 5 years ending in
2000 saw growth rates near 1 percent. This acceleration of multifactor productiv-
ity growth was one of the most remarkable features of the data, suggesting mas-
sive improvements in technology and increases in the efficiency of production.
Harchaoui and Tarkhani (2004a) refined and extended that analysis by using an
augmented aggregate growth accounting framework fully integrated to a sec-
toral model to trace the various channels through which information technology
operates. Their results suggest that while information technology is indeed the
story in the U.S. productivity revival, it is only part of it in the Canadian context.
The labour productivity revival is primarily attributable to information technology
capital deepening and multifactor productivity gains of information technology-
producing industries. The Canadian evidence points towards the importance of
8
Information Technology and Economic Growth
To assess the robustness of our earlier work, this study extends our initial
framework and exploits a new data set on the sources of growth for Canada and
the United States over the 1981-2000 period.4 We extend our contribution in the
following directions.
First, we extend our coverage from the business sector to the private domestic
economy. This notion comprises the business sector itself and owner-occupied
housing, thereby improving our coverage and making it more consistent with the
System of National Accounts’ domain of definition.5
Second, we measure the service flow from the stock of durables in lieu of expen-
diture.6 The purchase of consumer durables is recorded as capital investment and
the service flow from the stock of durables as consumption, since the latter repre-
sents the portion actually consumed in a given period. This approach is appeal-
ing for two reasons: a) it makes the treatment of consumer durables similar to
that used in the System of National Accounts to account for rents of owner-
occupied dwellings, and b) it also makes the treatment of consumer durables
symmetric to the one already in place in the productivity accounts for the meas-
urement of producers durable goods.
Fourth, an important feature of our methodology is the explicit role provided for
intermediate inputs. Consider, for example, the output of the semiconductor in-
dustry. Much of this output is invisible at the aggregate level, since semiconductor
9
Harchaoui, Tarkhani & Khanam
products are mainly inputs into other industries rather than deliveries to final
demand as consumption and investment goods. Semiconductor inputs, however,
play a key role in the improvements in the quality and performance of com-
puters, communications equipment, instruments, and a host of other products
(see Jorgenson 2001).
The results obtained in this study continue to support the basic story laid out in
our earlier work; namely, the data still show a substantial pickup in the U.S. la-
bour productivity growth in the late 1990s and indicate that efficiency gains as-
sociated with the production of information technology were central factors in
that resurgence. This contrasts with the Canadian evidence where the bulk of the
increase of labour productivity was attributable to efficiency gains outside the
information technology-producing industries. Interestingly, the Canadian story
remains intact even with the adoption of international harmonized prices for
information technology-producing industries.
This top down approach, which tries to allocate final demand GDP growth to
information technology-producing industries and information technology-using
industries, is complemented by the bottom up analysis employed by Ho, Rao and
Tang, in this volume. The latter uses detailed industry-level data to trace the
sources of Canada-U.S. economic growth to their industry origins, to isolate and
analyze the industries that use information technology, and to ascertain the rela-
tive importance of productivity growth and factor accumulation. Their results,
consistent with ours, have shown that information technology is indeed the story
for the U.S. productivity revival, compared to Canada, where it has made a mod-
est contribution. Information technology-using and non-using industries gener-
ated all of the multifactor productivity revival of the Canadian business sector.
Using a parametric framework for detailed Canadian industry data, Gu and
Wang in this volume have attributed Canada’s productivity surge to information
technology-induced organizational changes and possible spillover effects.
10
Information Technology and Economic Growth
The remainder of this study is as follows: The next section extends the coverage
of Harchaoui and Tarkhani (2004a) to incorporate the service flows of durables
and housing. We employ a methodology developed by Jorgenson and Stiroh
(2000) and summarize it briefly. The following section presents our results of the
trend growth of output, inputs and productivity for Canada and the United States
over the 1981-2000 period. The last section concludes the study.
Set Up
This aggregate framework serves as the basis for this study. Recent work that
implemented this approach includes Jorgenson and Stiroh (2000) and Jorgenson
(2001) for the U.S. economy; Jorgenson and Yip (2001) and Dougherty and
Jorgenson (1997) for international comparisons, and Harchaoui and Tarkhani
(2004a) for a Canada-U.S. comparison of economic growth and productivity per-
formance.
The imputed capital services from owner-occupied housing are included in the
Canadian System of National Accounts (CSNA) and U.S. National Income and
Product Accounts (NIPA) but not in the productivity accounts of the two coun-
tries. In this study, we make these two sets of accounts consistent as far as the
treatment of housing is concerned. The flows of capital services resulting from
investment in housing by owner-occupiers and investment in structures by
11
Harchaoui, Tarkhani & Khanam
households are added to the notion of the business sector used by the productiv-
ity accounts of the two countries.
We treat housing and consumer durables consistently and include both of the
two assets in the capital input, and the flow of services from the installed stock of
each in consumption in the aggregate production function. The purchase of new
housing and consumer durables are treated as investment.
12
Information Technology and Economic Growth
Under the standard assumptions of competitive product and factor markets, and
constant returns to scale, Equation (1) can be transformed into an equation that
accounts for the sources of economic growth:
where ∆x ≡ xt – xt–1. w denotes the average output shares and v the average
input shares of the subscripted variables; the shares are averaged over period t
and t–1, and wY + wY = vK + vK + vK + vL + vL = 1.0 . We refer to the share-
IT NIT IT OME S U NU
weighted growth rates in equation (2) as the contributions of the inputs and
outputs.
Equation (3) decomposes labour productivity growth into three sources. The first
is capital deepening, defined as the contribution of capital services per hour,
which is decomposed into non-information technology and information technol-
ogy components. The interpretation of capital deepening is that additional capi-
tal per hour makes workers more productive in proportion to the capital share.
The third and fourth terms capture labour quality improvement, defined as the
13
Harchaoui, Tarkhani & Khanam
contribution of labour input per hour worked, for university and non-university
workers, respectively. This reflects changes in the composition of the workforce
and raises labour productivity in proportion to the labour share of each category
of workers. The fifth term, hours reallocation, reflects compositional shifts be-
tween university and non-university workers. The last term is multifactor pro-
ductivity growth, which raises labour productivity growth point-for-point.
Data
We briefly summarize the data required to implement Equations (1) to (3) here.
More detailed descriptions are available in Ho and Jorgenson (1999) and the
appendices of Jorgenson and Stiroh (2000) and Jorgenson, Ho, and Stiroh (forth-
coming) for the U.S. data, and Baldwin and Harchaoui (2003) for the Canadian
productivity accounts.
Output
The aggregate data are based on the most recent benchmark revision of the
Canadian and U.S. national accounts, updated through 2000. These data are
based on Income and Expenditures Accounts (IEAs) and the NIPAs maintained,
respectively, by Statistics Canada and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
These accounts provide measures of final demand GDP in both current and
chained dollars. The framework developed in this study calls for a broader
treatment of output than the official ones used in national accounts and produc-
tivity programs of the two countries. First, the services of owner-occupied hous-
ing and structures utilized by households are included in the GDP, thereby
making the coverage of the productivity accounts in line with that of national
accounts of the two countries. Second, consumer durable goods are treated sym-
metrically with investment in housing, since both are long-lived assets that are
accumulated and provide a flow of services over their lifetimes. We use a rental
price to impute a flow of consumer durables services included in both consump-
tion and capital input. The value of the service flow of housing are imputed from
rental values available from the IEAs and the NIPAs.9
Table 1 provides information on the value of outputs and inputs for 1981 and
2000 and Tables 2a and 2b report the average annual growth rates of quantity
and prices for these outputs and inputs, respectively, for Canada and the United
States for the following periods: 1981-2000, 1981-88, 1988-2000, 1988-95 and 1995-
2000. While these time periods are conventional for the Canada-U.S. comparison
in terms of multifactor productivity growth, a word about the choice of the periods
14
Information Technology and Economic Growth
is useful at this point. The year 1981 is the first year in our KLEMS (capital, la-
bour, energy, materials, and services) data set for which the data are compara-
ble.10 The years 1988 and 2000 are, respectively, the first and the second peak of
the cycle in the period we cover; the year 1995 corresponds to a surge in eco-
nomic growth.
The Canadian and U.S. concepts of output are similar, but not identical, to the
official concept of gross domestic product. Our output measure is somewhat
broader than the one used in the official Canada-U.S. productivity statistics, pub-
lished by Statistics Canada (2002) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) (2002),
and employed by Harchaoui et al. (2002) and Harchaoui and Tarkhani (2004a).
Both measures include final outputs purchased by households, businesses, and
the rest of the world. The output measures in Table 1, unlike the one used in our
previous work, includes imputations for the service flows from housing and dura-
ble goods, including information technology products, employed in the household
sector.
The imputations for services of information technology assets are based on the
cost of capital for information technology described in more detail below. The
cost of capital is multiplied by the nominal value of information technology capi-
tal stock to obtain the imputed service flow from information technology assets.
In the business sector, this accrues as capital income to the firms that employ
these products as inputs. In the household sector, the flow of capital income
must be imputed. This same type of imputation is used for housing in the IEAs
in Canada and the NIPAs in the United States. The rental value of renter-
occupied housing accrues to real estate firms as capital income, while the rental
value of owner-occupied housing is imputed to households.
15
Harchaoui, Tarkhani & Khanam
Table 1
16
Information Technology and Economic Growth
The most striking feature of the data in Tables 2a and 2b is the rapid price decline
for computer investment, 15.3 percent per year for Canada from 1981 to 2000
(15.5 percent for the United States). At less than 3 percent per year during this
period in both Canada and the United States, the price of software declined less
rapidly than that of computers (–2.11 percent for Canada and –0.7 percent for the
United States). In contrast, the price of telecommunication equipment behaved
slightly differently between Canada and the United States (a 0.6 percent increase
in Canada, compared to a 0.1 percent decline for the United States), while the
service flows of consumers information technology durable goods show less
rapid price declines in Canada compared to the United States (–9.3 percent com-
pared to –19.4 percent).
Capital Services
This section presents the estimates of capital services for the Canadian and U.S.
private economies for the period 1981 to 2000. These begin with IEA and NIPA
investment data; the perpetual inventory method generates estimates of capital
stocks and these are aggregated, using service prices as weights. This approach,
originated by Jorgenson and Griliches (1967), is based on the identification of
service prices with marginal products of different types of capital. The service
price estimates incorporate the cost of capital, an annualization factor that trans-
forms the price of an asset into the price of the corresponding capital input. The
cost of capital includes the nominal rate of return, the rate of depreciation, and
the rate of capital loss due to declining prices.
17
18
Growth Rates of Outputs and Inputs, Canada (average annual percentage rates of growth)
Capital Services 3.4 2.6 5.2 2.9 2.4 2.4 2.3 1.8 2.5 3.2
Information Technology –7.0 18.9 –5.1 20.1 –8.1 18.2 –8.4 15.6 –7.8 22.0
Computers –15.2 29.1 –14.9 29.4 –15.4 28.9 –14.5 21.8 –16.6 39.5
Communication 1.2 5.4 7.2 2.8 –2.1 7.0 –4.8 6.4 1.8 7.9
Software –2.1 18.9 2.4 24.5 –4.6 15.7 –6.0 16.0 –2.6 15.3
Consumer Durable Services –9.3 28.5 –13.0 44.2 –7.1 20.1 –4.8 21.1 –10.2 18.7
Table 2a (cont’d)
Growth Rates of Outputs and Inputs, Canada (average annual percentage rates of growth)
Growth Rates of Outputs and Inputs, United States (average annual percentage rates of growth)
Price Quantity Price Quantity Price Quantity Price Quantity Price Quantity
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 2.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 1.9 3.7 2.5 2.9 1.1 4.8
Information Technology-GDP -4.9 15.2 -2.6 13.2 -6.3 16.5 -4.3 11.9 -9.0 23.2
Computers and Software Consumption -19.8 57.7 -16.3 83.9 -21.8 44.1 -17.2 38.2 -27.8 52.8
Computers Investment -15.5 30.4 -13.9 30.2 -16.4 30.6 -12.0 22.6 -22.1 42.6
Software Investment -0.7 14.9 0.4 15.7 -1.3 14.4 -1.5 12.4 -1.0 17.3
Communication Investment -0.1 7.2 1.6 4.4 -1.1 8.9 -0.4 3.8 -2.2 16.3
Consumer Durable Services -19.4 60.4 -17.8 91.9 -20.4 44.4 -13.9 38.4 -28.7 53.3
Communication Services 1.1 6.8 3.6 4.6 -0.4 8.0 0.4 6.7 -1.5 10.0
Other 3.0 3.2 4.0 3.4 2.4 3.0 2.9 2.5 1.7 3.7
Non-Information Technology-GDP 2.7 3.1 7.8 3.3 -0.2 3.0 0.5 2.8 -1.2 3.3
Housing Services 3.3 3.4 4.0 5.6 3.0 2.1 2.8 0.1 3.3 5.0
Housing Investment 3.0 3.1 3.8 3.3 2.5 3.1 3.0 2.6 1.8 3.7
Other 2.1 2.3 3.5 3.1 2.1 2.4 1.7 2.0 1.9 2.2
Capital Services 2.1 4.2 4.3 4.3 0.9 4.2 1.5 3.1 -0.1 5.8
Information Technology -6.2 19.3 -5.1 22.1 -6.9 17.6 -2.8 12.6 -12.4 25.1
Computers -13.2 28.1 -12.0 34.0 -13.9 24.8 -8.0 13.8 -21.5 41.8
Communication -0.8 15.4 1.0 15.7 -1.7 15.2 -1.4 14.3 -2.3 16.4
Software 1.6 6.8 3.5 8.1 0.5 6.1 4.1 4.4 -4.3 8.5
Consumer Durable Services -19.4 60.4 -17.8 91.9 -20.4 44.4 -13.9 38.4 -28.7 53.3
Table 2b (cont’d)
Growth Rates of Outputs and Inputs, United States (average annual percentage rates of growth)
Figure 1a
3.0
3.0
2.0
2.0
1.0
1.0
0.0
-
1981
1981 1983
1983 1985
1985 1987
1987 1989
1989 1991
1991 1993
1993 1995
1995 1997
1997 1999
1999
Figure 1b
Communication
Communication Services
services
7.0
7.0 Computer
Computersand and
consumers' durable
Consumer servicesServices
Durable
Communication
Communication investment
Investment
Software
Softwareinvestment
Investment
6.0
6.0 Computer
Computersinvestment
Investment
Computer
Computersand and
software consumption
Software Consumption
5.0
5.0
4.0
4.0
3.0
3.0
2.0
2.0
1.0
1.0
-0.0
1981
1981 1983
1983 1985 1987 1989
1989 1991
1991 1993 1995
1995 1997
1997 1999
1999
22
Information Technology and Economic Growth
The definition of capital includes all tangible assets in the Canadian and U.S.
private economies, equipment and structures, as well as consumer and govern-
ment durables, land, and inventories. For the purpose of this Canada-U.S. com-
parison, Canadian (U.S.) national accounts data were reclassified into 24 (52)
non-residential assets, 4 (5) residential assets, and 13 (13) consumer durable as-
sets. For each asset, we created an investment series in current and chained dol-
lars. Although the implicit prices of some assets, particularly those associated
with information technology, behave differently in the two countries, the differ-
ences do not impact significantly on the order of magnitude of the contributions
of information technology to output, capital inputs and productivity growth at
the aggregate level (see Harchaoui and Tarkhani, 2004a).
Capital stocks were then estimated using the perpetual inventory method and a
geometric depreciation rate. Canadian depreciation rates are estimated econo-
metrically using the age-price profile based on a sample of 30,000 observations of
non-residential used assets dating from 1987 to 1995 maintained by Statistics
Canada (Harchaoui and Tarkhani, 2003). The U.S. depreciation rates are based on
the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) estimates constructed during the 1980s
(see Fraumeni, 1997), with the exception of automobiles, software and computers
derived by Dale Jorgenson and his associates (see Jorgenson and Stiroh, 2000,
p. 203).
23
Harchaoui, Tarkhani & Khanam
The capital service flows from durable goods employed by households and gov-
ernments enter measures of both output and input. A steadily rising proportion
of these service flows are associated with investments in information technology.
Investments in information technology by business, household, and government
sectors must be included in the GDP, along with household and government
information technology capital services, in order to capture the full impact of
information technology on the Canadian and U.S. private economies.
Figures 2a and 2b also depict the rapid increase in the importance of information
technology services, reflecting the accelerating pace of information technology
price declines. During the 1995-2000 period, the capital service price for com-
puters fell 16.6 percent per year in Canada (21.5 percent for the United States),
compared to an increase of 39.5 percent in capital input for computers
(41.8 percent for the United States) (see Tables 2a and 2b). As a consequence, the
value of computer services grew substantially. However, the cost of capital share
of computers was only 2.5 percent of gross domestic income in 2000 in Canada
(2.7 percent for the United States), up from 1.6 percent in 1995 (2.1 percent for the
United States) (see Figures 2a and 2b).
24
Information Technology and Economic Growth
Figure 2a
Computers
Computers
2.5
2.5 Communication
Communication
Software
Software
Computer and
Computers andSoftware
software durableDurable
Consumer services
Services
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
1981
1981 1983
1983 1985
1985 1987
1987 1989
1989 1991
1991 1993
1993 1995
1995 1997
1997 1999
1999
Figure 2b
4.5
4.5
4.0
4.0 Computers
Computers
Communication
Communication
3.5 Software
Software
3.5 Computers and
Computer andSoftware
softwareConsumer
consumerDurable Services
durable services
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
1981
1981 1983
1983 1985
1985 1987
1987 1989
1989 1991
1991 1993
1993 1995
1995 1997
1997 1999
1999
25
Harchaoui, Tarkhani & Khanam
Labour Services
This section presents estimates of university and non-university labour inputs for
both the Canadian and U.S. private economies from 1981 to 2000. The primary data
sources are the censuses of population (quinquennial for Canada and decennial for
the United States), annual surveys (Labour Force Survey for Canada and Current
Population Survey for the United States), the Canadian productivity accounts and
the NIPAs for the United States for total hours worked and labour compensation.
The censuses of population provide detailed data on employment, hours, and la-
bour compensation across demographic groups in census years. The annual survey
data are used to interpolate similar data for intervening years and the Canadian
productivity accounts and NIPA data provide control totals. The demographic
groups include 112 different types of workers, cross-classified by class (employee,
self-employed or unpaid), age (15-17, 18-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65+ years),
gender, and education attainment (university and non-university).11
26
Information Technology and Economic Growth
Constant quality indexes for the price and quantity of labour input account for
the heterogeneity of the workforce across sex, employment class, age, and educa-
tion levels. This follows the approach of Jorgenson, Gollop, and Fraumeni (1987)
for the United States and Gu, Kaci, Maynard, and Sillamaa (2003) for Canada.
Figure 3 shows that the labour cost share of university-educated workers in the
gross domestic income in current prices was 5.3 percent in 1981 in Canada
(13.2 percent in the United States), but has risen fairly steadily since then until
Figure 3
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
27
Harchaoui, Tarkhani & Khanam
the early 1990s when it experienced a significant slowdown. During the second
half of the 1990s, this ratio experienced an unprecedented increase reaching
11.8 percent in 2000 (21.3 percent for the United States), more than double the
performance posted in 1981. Tables 2a and 2b show that the growth of univer-
sity-educated labour input significantly dominated that of non-university input
across all periods. The substitution of university-educated workers for non-
university workers has been an important force behind the restructuring of the
Canadian and U.S. private economies. This reflects the increased role of knowl-
edge workers associated by the deployment of information technology invest-
ment.
Tables 2a and 2b show that the price of computer investment in Canada fell by
16.7 percent per year, the price of software 1.0 percent, and the price of commu-
nications equipment 0.1 percent, and the price of information technology con-
sumer durable services 10.5 percent during the period 1995-2000 (respectively
22.1 percent, 1.0 percent, 2.2 percent and 28.7 percent for the United States), while
non-information technology prices rose 1.9 percent (1.7 percent for the United
States). In response to these price changes, firms, households, and governments
28
Information Technology and Economic Growth
Figures 4a, 4b, 5a and 5b highlight the rising contributions of information tech-
nology outputs to Canadian and U.S. economic growth. Figures 4a and 4b show
the breakdown between information technology and non-information technol-
ogy outputs, while Figures 5a and 5b decompose the contribution of information
technology into its components.
29
Harchaoui, Tarkhani & Khanam
Figure 4a
5.0
4.5
3.5
3.0
3.7
2.5
2.0
3.0
2.3
1.5 1.9
1.0
0.6
0.5
0.8
0.4 0.5
0.3 0.3
0.0
1981-2000 1981-88 1988-2000 1988-95 1995-2000
Figure 4b
6.0
4.0
3.0 3.4
2.9 2.8
3.2
2.0
2.3
1.0
1.4
0.8 0.9
0.6 0.6
0.0
1981-2000 1981-88 1988-2000 1988-95 1995-2000
30
Information Technology and Economic Growth
Figure 5a
1.0
Computers and Software Consumption Computers Investment
Software Investment Communication Investment
0.8 Consumer Durable Services Communication Services
Other Information Technology
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
1981-2000 1981-88 1988-2000 1988-95 1995-2000
Figure 5b
1.6
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
1981-2000 1981-88 1988-2000 1988-95 1995-2000
31
Harchaoui, Tarkhani & Khanam
Figure 6a
4.0
3.0
2.5
2.9 1.6
2.0
1.9
1.3
1.5
1.1
1.0
1.3
0.5 0.9 1.0
0.8 0.8
0.0
1981-2000 1981-88 1988-2000 1988-95 1995-2000
Figure 6b
8.0
7.0
Information Technology Non-information Technology
6.0
5.0 4.9
4.0
3.7 3.6
3.0 3.9
2.7
2.0
2.4
1.0
1.4 1.6
1.1 1.0
0.0
1981-2000 1981-88 1988-2000 1988-95 1995-2000
32
Information Technology and Economic Growth
Figure 7a
1.40
0.50 0.52
0.46
0.20
0.33
0.00
1981-2000 1981-88 1988-2000 1988-95 1995-2000
Figure 7b
3.00
0.23
1.50
0.39
0.54
0.31
0.17 0.17
1.00 0.16
0.15 0.24
0.34 0.42
0.21 0.12
0.50 1.05
0.33
0.61 0.61 0.61
0.30
0.00
1981-2000 1981-88 1988-2000 1988-95 1995-2000
33
Harchaoui, Tarkhani & Khanam
As indicated above, the structure of aggregate output has shifted toward infor-
mation technology and the capital deployed in the economy has moved rapidly
to information technology assets. Following these changes, the composition of
the workforce has evolved toward more university-educated workers. As the
unemployment rate fell in the late 1990s, workers with a wide variety of levels of
education and experience entered the ranks of the employed labour force. The
contribution of university-educated workers dominated the growth of labour
input in the United States during the period 1981-2000, even though these workers
are less numerous than non-university workers (Figures 8a and 8b and Table 1).
This contrasts markedly with Canada where the growth of labour input was
driven by non-university-educated workers. The contribution of university-
educated workers to the aggregate labour input increased between the 1980s and
the late 1990s in Canada but it declined in the United States, thereby reducing the
gap between the two countries in this area.
34
Information Technology and Economic Growth
Figure 8a
4.0
2.3
2.5
2.0
1.3 1.8 1.09
1.5
1.0 0.20
1.5
1.1 1.2
0.5 1.0
0.8
0.0
1981-2000 1981-88 1988-2000 1988-95 1995-2000
Figure 8b
3.0
Non-university-educated Workers
University-educated Workers
2.5
2.0
0.9 1.2
1.0
1.0
1.5
0.8
1.0
1.5
1.2 1.3
0.5 1.1
0.9
0.0
1981-2000 1981-88 1988-2000 1988-95 1995-2000
35
Harchaoui, Tarkhani & Khanam
This section presents the sources of GDP growth for Canada and the United
States over the entire period 1981 to 2000 and its various sub-periods. The contri-
butions of capital inputs, labour inputs and multifactor productivity to GDP
growth are reported in Tables 3a and 3b. In Canada, capital services contributed
1.35 percentage points, labour services 1.12 percentage points, and multifactor
productivity growth 0.22 percentage points (for the United States, 1.81, 1.20 and
0.63 percentage points, respectively). Inputs growth was the source of 93 percent
of Canadian economic growth over the past two decades, while multifactor pro-
ductivity has accounted for 7 percent (17 percent for the United States).
A look at the Canadian economy before and after 1988 reveals some familiar fea-
tures of the historical record. After a strong output growth and a modest multifac-
tor productivity growth in the 1980s, the Canadian private economy slowed
markedly through the 1990s, with output growth falling from 3.24 percent to
2.37 percent while multifactor productivity growth deteriorated from 0.51 percent
to 0.06 percent. Growth in primary inputs also experienced a similar slowdown
from 1.52 percent to 1.26 percent for capital input and from 1.23 percent to
1.06 percent for labour input. In contrast, the moderate U.S. slowdown in the
growth of real GDP (from 3.76 percent to 3.70 percent) and primary inputs (from
3.19 percent to 3.04 percent) has resulted in improvements in multifactor produc-
tivity growth from 0.56 percent to 0.67 percent during the same period.
During the post-1995 period, labour input contributed 1.77 percentage points to
the growth resurgence in Canada, compared with 1.68 percentage points for
capital input. This contrasts with the United States where the contribution of
capital input was larger than that of labour input (2.66 percentage points com-
pared to 1.36 percentage points). Growth in hours worked accelerated as unem-
ployment fell to a 10-year low. Labour markets have tightened considerably,
even as labour force participation rates increased. University-educated workers
contributed about two-thirds of a percentage point to Canada’s GDP growth,
while non-university workers added slightly more than percentage point (for the
United States, 0.73 and 0.63 percentage points, respectively). Faster growth in mul-
tifactor productivity contributed the remaining 1.0 percentage points in Canada
(0.76 percentage points for the United States).
36
Table 3a
Sources of Gross Domestic Product Growth, Canada (average annual growth percentage rates of growth)
Sources of Gross Domestic Product Growth, Canada (average annual growth percentage rates of growth)
Sources of Gross Domestic Product Growth, United States (average annual growth percentage rates of growth)
Sources of Gross Domestic Product Growth, United States (average annual growth percentage rates of growth)
The contribution of capital input reflects the investment boom of the late 1990s as
businesses, households, and governments poured resources into plant and
equipment, especially computers, software, and communications equipment. The
contribution of information technology capital services has grown steadily
throughout the 1988-2000 period, a reflection of the impact of the accelerating
decline in information technology prices. The contribution of information tech-
nology capital services was accompanied by a strong contribution of university-
educated labour input.
After maintaining an average rate of 0.51 percent in Canada for the period 1981-
88, multifactor productivity growth fell to -0.6 percent for the 1988-95 period and
then vaulted to 1.01 percent per year for 1995-2000. This is a major source of
growth in output and labour productivity for the Canadian private economy.
While multifactor productivity growth for the 1995-2000 period is lower than the
rate of the sixties, the Canadian private economy is recuperating from the anemic
productivity growth of the past 15 years.
Results show that recent resurgence of the Canadian private economy has raised
the growth rate of real GDP by 3.56 percentage points when 1995-2000 is com-
pared to 1988-95 (1.84 percentage points in the United States). Capital input con-
tributed 0.73 percentage points to the post-1995 revival (1.30 percentage points
for the United States); about half of this contribution of capital input in Canada is
due to the surge of information technology capital input, while the other half is
due to a more rapid accumulation of non-information technology assets. This
contrasts with the United States where almost two-thirds of the increase in capi-
tal input between these two periods was attributable to non-information technol-
ogy (0.79 percentage points compared to 0.51 for information technology).
Labour input contributed 1.21 percentage points to the growth resurgence
(0.38 percentage points for the United States). University-educated workers con-
tributed slightly more than two-tenths of a percentage point, while non-
university workers added close to another percentage point to the growth resur-
gence. In the United States, university-educated workers have made a negative
contribution to overall labour input growth (-0.16 percentage points), compared
to a 0.54 percentage points increase for non-university-educated workers. Faster
growth in multifactor productivity in Canada contributed the remaining
1.61 percentage points (0.16 percentage points for the United States). 13
41
Harchaoui, Tarkhani & Khanam
Output growth is the sum of growth in hours worked and labour productivity.
Table 4 shows the breakdown between growth in hours and labour productivity
for the same periods as in the previous tables. For the period 1981-2000, labour
productivity growth in Canada has not predominated in output growth, increas-
ing just over 1.01 percent per year for this period, while hours increased about
1.64 percent per year. This contrasts with the United States where labour produc-
tivity was equally important as hours at work in the source of output growth,
accounting for 49 percent of the output growth (38 percent for Canada).
Table 4 reveals the well-known productivity slowdown of the early 1990s, com-
pared to the 1980s, but also emphasizes the acceleration in labour productivity
growth in the late 1990s. The slowdown through the early 1990s reflects primar-
ily reduced multifactor productivity growth in Canada (capital deepening in the
United States). The growth of labour productivity slipped in Canada during the
early 1990s with a slump in multifactor productivity (in Canada) and capital
deepening (in the United States) only partly offset by a revival in labour quality
growth. A slowdown in hours combined with slowing labour productivity
growth during 1988-95 gave rise to a further slide in the growth of output.
Accelerating output growth between the periods 1988-95 and 1995-2000 in Canada
reflects primarily growth in labour hours, vaulting from 0.28 percent to
3.11 percent (1.42 percent to 2.26 percent in the United States) and labour produc-
tivity, which increased from 0.62 percent to 1.31 percent during this period (from
1.51 percent to 2.46 percent in the United States). The sources of the productivity
revival are different in Canada and the United States. In Canada, multifactor
productivity contributed 1.01 percentage points (or 77 percent of labour produc-
tivity growth), offsetting the slump in both capital deepening and labour compo-
sition. In the United States, capital deepening and multifactor productivity
contributed, respectively, 1.57 and 0.76 percentage points, (accounting, respec-
tively, for 31 percent and 64 percent to labour productivity growth), largely off-
setting the labour quality slowdown. Reallocation of hours, a reflection of the shift
of the workforce toward more productive activities, has made an important contri-
bution.
42
Table 4
Contribution of Capital Deepening 0.47 1.04 0.46 0.98 0.47 1.08 0.79 0.72 0.03 1.57
Information Technology 0.34 0.42 0.19 0.34 0.52 0.46 0.39 0.29 –0.27 0.69
Contribution of Labour Composition 0.34 0.16 0.28 0.16 0.38 0.16 0.44 0.19 0.28 0.13
University-educated Workers 0.03 –0.02 0.02 –0.05 0.04 –0.01 0.05 0.00 0.02 –0.01
Non-university-educated Workers 0.19 0.06 0.19 0.04 0.19 0.07 0.22 0.10 0.14 0.04
Reallocation of Hours 0.12 0.12 0.07 0.18 0.15 0.09 0.17 0.09 0.12 0.10
Multifactor Productivity 0.22 0.63 0.51 0.56 0.06 0.67 –0.60 0.60 1.01 0.76
Information Technology 0.07 0.33 0.06 0.28 0.07 0.35 0.04 0.22 0.11 0.54
Non-information Technology 0.13 0.30 0.35 0.28 0.00 0.32 –0.69 0.38 0.98 0.22
43
Harchaoui, Tarkhani & Khanam
Motivation
W e have explored the sources of the Canadian and the U.S. economic growth
at the aggregate level and demonstrated that accelerated multifactor pro-
ductivity growth is an important contributor to the recent growth resurgence—
particularly in Canada. We now turn our attention to industry data to trace the
contribution of information technology-producing industries to aggregate multi-
factor productivity growth. Before proceeding to the sectoral allocation of multi-
factor productivity gains, it is useful to note that Ho, Rao, and Tang, in this
volume, also examines sectoral allocations. It is important, however, to note that
there are differences in the coverage of information technology-producing indus-
tries, the domain of definition of the aggregate multifactor productivity growth
and the aggregation methodology.
First, Ho, Rao and Tang use the notion of business sector employed by the Cana-
dian productivity accounts and the BLS, a narrower coverage than the notion of
private economy employed in our study. In addition to the business sector, the
latter includes owner-occupied dwellings and the service flows of consumer
durables. Second, our method uses a top-down approach, compared to a bottom-
up approach in Ho, Rao and Tang. Third, information technology-producing
industries are defined to include two manufacturing industries that produce
information technology assets (computers, telecommunication equipment and
software) and semi-conductors: computers, and communications and electronic
equipment. In contrast, Ho, Rao and Tang add communication services to these
two manufacturing industries. Despite these differences, the same broad trends
emerge and therefore attest to the robustness of the findings.
This section summarizes the methods for allocating the sources of aggregate
economic growth to the sectoral level. The first component consists of a produc-
tion function for each industry with gross output expressed as a function of capi-
tal, labour, intermediate inputs and the level of technology. The second is the
Domar methodology for aggregating over industries to obtain an aggregate
measure of productivity. The remainder of this section summarizes our method-
ology and the underlying data sources and discusses the results.
44
Information Technology and Economic Growth
This internally consistent framework makes it possible to identify the role of in-
formation technology production as a source of productivity growth at the sectoral
level. Jorgenson, Gollop, and Fraumeni (1987) have employed Domar’s (1961)
model to trace aggregate productivity growth to its sources at the level of individ-
ual industries. More recently, Jorgenson and Stiroh (2000), and Jorgenson, Ho, and
Stiroh (forthcoming), for the United States, and Harchaoui and Tarkhani (2004a),
for a Canada-U.S. comparison, have used the same framework to quantify the
contribution of information technology-producing industries to the business sector
multifactor productivity revival.
Before turning to the results, a description of the data sources is in order. The pri-
mary source of information at the industry level is the KLEMS database for both
countries maintained, respectively, by the Canadian Productivity Accounts and
Dale Jorgenson and his associates. Both data sources employ similar concepts and
methods that accord with the OECD productivity manual (OECD 2001). These
data include series in chained constant dollars for output, capital, labour and in-
termediate inputs, along with the current dollar cost of each of these inputs. At the
industry level, computers and communications and electronic equipment consti-
tute the two manufacturing industries that make up the information technology-
producing industries for Canada and the United States. Although these two indus-
tries account for a small share in the aggregate GDP in both Canada and the
United States, they have experienced a rapid output growth over the last 20 years.
Before proceeding to the empirical results, we should point out two features of
the data employed in industry-level analysis. First, the Canadian Productivity
45
Harchaoui, Tarkhani & Khanam
Account (CPA) series on gross output and intermediate inputs are usually
three years behind the reference year due to the long lag in obtaining detailed in-
ter-industry transactions from Statistics Canada input-output tables. To capture
most of the growth revival experienced by the Canadian business sector in the late
1990s, these series were updated on an experimental basis using synthetic input-
output tables for the post benchmark years. Despite the preliminary nature of the
projected series for the 1998-2000 period, their overall trend over the 1981-2000
period appears to be reasonable and consistent with other current series such as
investment or value added by industry.
Second, our estimates of capital services at the industry level are not directly
comparable to the aggregate series employed in the previous sections
of this study. In the first part of the study, we have used a production possibil-
ity frontier which requires an aggregate measure of capital services
( )
Kt = f ( K 1,t , K 2 ,t ,..., K n ,t ) , where n includes all types of reproducible fixed assets,
inventories and land. In this section, we assume the existence of a production
function at the industry level, which implies that capital services are aggregated
across assets and industries.
Empirical Results
46
Information Technology and Economic Growth
Figure 9a
1.20
0.60
0.89
0.40
0.44
0.20
0.16
0.06 0.06 0.07 0.12
0.00 0.03
0.01
-0.20
0.63
-0.40
-0.60
-0.80
Figure 9b
0.80
0.28 0.38
0.40
0.30
0.54
0.20 0.33
0.35
0.28
0.10 0.22
0.00
1981-2000 1981-88 1988-2000 1988-95 1995-2000
47
Harchaoui, Tarkhani & Khanam
During the 1981-2000 period, the annual growth rate of computers and office
equipment industry’s output implicit prices declined by 12.7 percent in Canada,
slightly slower than the 14.5 percent drop for their U.S. counterparts. This contrasts
with the communication and electronic products industry which showed diverg-
ing trends between the two countries: a 0.9 percent increase for Canada, compared
Table 5
1981-2000 1995-2000
Canada
Output Computers and Office Equipment –12.7 –18.6
Communication and Electronic Products 0.9 –1.6
Information Technology-producing Industries –3.0 –6.0
Intermediate Computers and Office Equipment –9.4 –17.1
Inputs Communication and Electronic Products 2.1 0.7
Information Technology-producing Industries –1.0 –3.5
United States
Output Computers and Office Equipment –14.5 –22.1
Communication and Electronic Products –6.1 –12.8
Information Technology-producing Industries –9.5 –16.2
Intermediate Computers and Office Equipment –6.1 –11.9
Inputs Communication and Electronic Products –2.1 –7.0
Information Technology-producing Industries –3.1 –7.7
48
Information Technology and Economic Growth
to a 6.1 percent decline for the United States. The implicit prices for the interme-
diate inputs showed similar diverging trends for the communication and elec-
tronic products industry (a 2.1 percent increase for Canada, compared to a
2.1 percent decline for the United States), whereas those of the computers and of-
fice equipment industry declined faster in Canada compared to the United States
(9.4 percent and 6.1 percent, respectively). This discrepancy becomes wider in the
late 1990s, due to the relentless decline in the prices of information technology
output in the United States.
49
Harchaoui, Tarkhani & Khanam
Figure 10
0.40
0.40
0.20 0.16 0.31
0.11 0.19 0.11
0.00 0.06
0.14
-0.20
-0.40 0.72
-0.60
-0.80
-1.00
Concluding Remarks
T HIS STUDY HAS EMPLOYED NEW DATA on the sources of growth for the Canadian
and U.S. private economies over the period 1981-2000. There are several in-
novations implemented in this study.
First, our definition of the private economy is broader than the notion of business
sector employed in our previous work. In particular, we treat consumer durable
50
Information Technology and Economic Growth
goods symmetrically with housing capital since both are essentially investment
goods that provide a flow of services over many periods.
The results indicate that the mechanisms underlying the structural transforma-
tion of the Canadian and the U.S. private economies are readily apparent in the
data. The structure of aggregate GDP has been shifting toward information tech-
nology commodities. The capital deployed in the economy is moving rapidly
toward information technology assets. Finally, the composition of the work force
is evolving toward more university-educated workers as investments in higher
education continue to rise.
51
Harchaoui, Tarkhani & Khanam
Next, consider the acceleration of labour productivity growth in the 1990s. After
a seven-year slowdown dating back to the early 1990s, Canada’s labour produc-
tivity grew 1.31 percent per year for the 1995-2000 period (2.46 for the United
States), a 0.69 percentage point faster than during the 1990-95 period (close to
1 percentage point for the United States). A detailed decomposition shows that
information technology capital deepening retarded labour productivity growth
in Canada (–0.27 percentage points) as a result of the remarkable increase in
hours at work, but added 0.69 percentage points to the U.S. labour productivity
growth. Non-information technology capital deepening has made a 0.29 percent-
age points contribution to labour productivity in Canada, compared to 0.88 per-
centage point for the United States.
Endnotes
1 See Jorgenson and Stiroh (2000), Jorgenson (2001), Jorgenson, Ho, and Stiroh
(forthcoming), as well as Baily (2002), Congressional Budget Office (2002), Coun-
cil of Economic Advisors (2002), Gordon (2002), McKinsey Global Institute
(2001), Oliner and Sichel (2000, 2002), and Whelan (2002).
52
Information Technology and Economic Growth
2 See Harchaoui, Tarkhani, Jackson and Armstrong (2002) and Harchaoui and
Tarkhani (2004a).
4 Our previous studies employed official U.S. data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics (BLS). In the present study, we use Dale Jorgenson’s KLEMS database, a
data source that is not directly comparable to its official U.S. counterpart from the
BLS. The former uses the notion of gross output (sectoral output for the BLS) and
labour input (hours at work for the BLS) at the industry level. Owner-occupied
dwellings and the service flows of durables are in scope in Jorgenson’s data but out
of BLS scope.
6 Under the existing practice, personal expenditure is not a true measure of con-
sumption. Under the existing conventions, purchases of consumer durables are ex-
pensed in the period when transactions occur. Since durable goods have a service
life of more than one year, this treatment fails to capture the service flow from the
stock of durables throughout their length of life, thereby making the conventions
for the measurement of consumer durables not symmetrical with those of housing.
This is by no means the first time that Statistics Canada has explored the construc-
tion of estimates for the flow of services for consumer durables. See Johal (1992).
7 See Katz and Peskin (1980) and the references therein. Katz and Peskin derived
experimental estimates of consumer durables flow of services for the United States.
A similar work for Canada was performed by Johal (1992).
8 Note that our output and capital services flow concepts include the service flows
from residential structures and consumer durables.
10 At the time this study was written, Statistics Canada has not introduced capitalized
software expenditures in the data prior to 1981.
11 In Canada and the United States, university labour input comprises all employees
with a B.A. and above.
53
Harchaoui, Tarkhani & Khanam
12 Gu and Wang in this volume found that Canadian industries that are both infor-
mation technology intensive and skill intensive had larger productivity gains in the
post-1995 period. This finding tends to support the complementarity explanation
between skilled workers and information technology capital.
13 These results are generally consistent with those of Ho, Rao and Tang in this vol-
ume who also found that Canada has experienced a more rapid surge in economic
growth and labour input growth than the United States.
Acknowledgments
A N EARLIER VERSION OF THIS STUDY was presented at the 37th Canadian Eco-
nomic Association meeting in Ottawa, May 2003. We thank John Baldwin,
Michael Denny, Erwin Diewert, Pierre Duguay, Alice Nakamura and the audi-
ence for their comments and suggestions. We are grateful to Wulong Gu for the
production of the Canadian labour input series, Weimin Wang for the produc-
tion of the Canadian gross output and intermediate input series for the post-
benchmark years, and Dale Jorgenson for providing his KLEMS database. This
study used the September 2002 vintage of the Canada-U.S. data which have been
subsequently revised. Despite significant revisions for GDP growth (upward for
Canada and downward for the United States), the story laid out in this study
remains unchanged.
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56
Information Technology and Productivity Growth: 3
Evidence from Canadian Industries
Abstract
Introduction
A large number of studies in the United States conclude that the productivity
growth revival in the United States is due to IT production and IT use (Jorgenson,
Ho, and Stiroh, 2002; Pilat and Lee, 2001). A number of studies in Canada find that
57
Gu & Wang
Most existing studies have focused on the contribution of IT use and IT produc-
tion to productivity growth in Canada and the United States. The use of IT con-
tributes to labour productivity growth through capital deepening as industries
increased their investments in IT.1 The production of IT contributes to labour
productivity growth through rapid technological progress and strong multifactor
productivity growth in IT-producing industries.
A number of recent papers in the United States have begun to examine a related
question: Is IT use linked to strong multifactor productivity growth during the
second half of the 1990s (Stiroh, 2002a; Basu, Fernald, Oulton, and Srinivasan,
2003)? These studies have identified two potential links between IT and multifac-
tor productivity growth: IT-induced organizational innovations and network or
spillover effects. First, firm-level studies suggest that to benefit from investment in
IT, firms must change their workplace and organizational practices (Brynjolfsson
and Hitt, 2000; Gera and Gu, forthcoming). These organizational changes include
the restructuring of the production process, management systems and employee
involvement schemes, and external reorganization emphasizing customer orien-
tation, outsourcing, firm networks and other collaborative arrangements (OECD,
2003). As a result of organizational changes, investment in IT improves produc-
tion efficiencies of the firms using IT and thus leads to multifactor productivity
growth.
58
Information Technology and Productivity Growth
— the most detailed industry aggregation that is available for productivity analy-
sis — to examine the relationship between IT and productivity growth. Previous
studies are restricted to a much broader industry aggregation (e.g. two-digit
manufacturing plus one-digit non-manufacturing industries). Third, we examine
the hypothesis that human capital and IT are complementary in improving pro-
ductivity performance in Canadian industries. We also examine the hypothesis
that industries that are more open to international competition benefit more from
IT investments. It has been argued that to realize potential productivity gains
from IT, human capital and competitive pressures are essential.
The rest of the study is organized as follows. In the next section, we provide a
brief description of our data sources. In the third section, we examine the sources
of output and labour productivity for the Canadian business sector. The fourth
section addresses the issue of whether IT is linked to the post-1995 MFP growth
acceleration in the business sector. In the fifth section, we ask the question: Do
industries that have a larger share of knowledge workers and are more open to
international competition benefit more from IT? The last section concludes the
study.
Data Sources
D ATA FOR OUR STUDY ARE OBTAINED from Statistics Canada’s multifactor pro-
ductivity database, which provides statistics on gross output, intermediate
inputs, capital services and labour services for 122 individual industries of the
Canadian business sector. Gross output and intermediate inputs in the database
are constructed from Statistics Canada annual input-output tables. The measures
of capital services and labour services recognize differences in the contributions
of workers and capital to output and productivity. Labour input estimates reflect
the compositional changes of workers with different educational attainment and
experience (for details, see Gu, Kaci, Maynard, and Sillamaa, 2003). Capital input
estimates are constructed from data on 28 producible assets plus land and inven-
tories (for details, see Harchaoui and Tarkhani, 2003; and Gellatly, Tanguay, and
Yan, 2003). Consequently, the capital input estimates account for substitution
between these various assets. For the purpose of this study, capital input is di-
vided into IT and non-IT capital, and labour input into labour input from univer-
sity-educated workers and from non university-educated workers.
It should be noted that the gross output and intermediate inputs for the 1998-
2000 period are estimated from preliminary input-output tables for the period.2
59
Gu & Wang
Statistics Canada uses the North American Industry Classification (NAICS) for
the construction of input-output tables for the year 1997 onward. For the purpose
of this project, we have constructed annual input-output tables based on the 1980
Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) for the years 1998, 1999 and 2000. These
SIC-based input-output tables provide a time series of industry productivity at
the P-level of industry classification) over the period 1981-2000.
The growth accounting technique decomposes value-added growth for the busi-
ness sector as follows:
∆ ln V ≡ v IT ∆ ln K IT + v NIT ∆ ln K NIT
(1)
+ v U ∆ ln LU + v NU ∆ ln LNU + MFP
where V is value added for the business sector, K IT is the flow of capital services
from investment in IT, K NIT is the flow of capital services from non-IT capital ser-
vices, LU is labour input from university-educated workers, LNU is labour input
from non-university-educated workers, v is the share of an input in aggregate
nominal value added, averaged over two periods.
+ v NU ⎡⎣ ∆ ln Q NU + ∆ ln ( H NU H ) ⎤⎦ + MFP
60
Information Technology and Productivity Growth
v U ∆ ln ( H U H ) + v NU ∆ ln ( H NU H ) .
Results in Table 1 show that value added rose at an annual rate of 3.18 percent per
year in the business sector during the period 1981-2000. Labour input contributed
1.35 percentage points. Capital input contributed 1.19 percentage points. The re-
maining 0.64 percentage points were due to MFP growth. Over the period 1981-
2000, university-educated workers were as significant as non-university-
educated workers in their contribution to the value-added growth of the business
sector, even though university-educated workers only accounted for about
12 percent of hours worked. Similarly, IT capital services made a significant con-
tribution to the growth in aggregate value-added despite their relatively small share
in total capital services. The importance of university-educated workers and IT
capital services reflect the fact that they tend to have higher marginal products
than non-university-educated workers and non-IT capital services.
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Gu & Wang
Table 1
Contribution of Capital
1.19 1.14 0.75 1.64 0.89
Input
IT 0.44 0.36 0.34 0.58 0.24
Non-IT 0.75 0.78 0.41 1.06 0.65
Contribution of Labour
1.35 1.42 0.52 2.28 1.76
Input
University 0.60 0.44 0.50 0.86 0.36
Non-university 0.75 0.98 0.02 1.42 1.40
Aggregate MFP 0.64 0.72 0.57 1.06 0.49
The value-added growth showed a large increase in the business sector during the
second half of the 1990s. Our results in Table 1 show that annual value-added
growth rose from 1.84 to 4.98 percent between the periods 1988-95 and 1995-2000.
This represents a 3.14 percentage-point increase during these two periods. About
half of the output growth revival was due to an increased contribution from la-
bour input, and mostly from non-university-educated workers. Capital deepen-
ing from both IT and non-IT was next in importance as a source of output growth
revival, contributing 0.89 percentage points. MFP growth was also an important
source of the growth acceleration in the Canadian business sector, contributing
0.49 percentage points.
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Information Technology and Productivity Growth
Table 2
The revival in output growth of the Canadian business sector in the period 1995-
2000 reflects a dramatic increase in hours growth of 2.64 percentage points and a
rise in labour productivity growth of 0.76 percentage points. Our decomposition
results in Table 2 show that the post-1995 increase in labour productivity growth is
entirely due to acceleration in MFP growth. Capital deepening made a small nega-
tive contribution to the labour productivity growth revival, which was partially
offset by the positive contribution of labour composition.
While overall capital deepening slowed for the business sector after 1995, capital
deepening from IT increased, making a positive though small contribution to the
post-1995 increase in labour productivity growth in Canada.
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Gu & Wang
I N THIS SECTION, we ask whether the post-1995 MFP growth acceleration of the
Canadian business sector is linked to IT use. We proceed in a number of steps.
First, we ask how widespread the productivity growth revival is across Canadian
industries. If the post-1995 pickup in productivity growth is concentrated in a
few industries, IT use is unlikely to constitute the main factor behind the produc-
tivity acceleration in the Canadian business sector. During the 1990s, most Cana-
dian industries have increased IT investments as a result of rapid technical pro-
gress in IT production and sharp declines in IT investment goods. If IT use is
behind the productivity growth acceleration, the acceleration should have oc-
curred in most Canadian industries.
Third, we use regression analysis to examine the issue of whether IT use is linked
to the productivity acceleration. If IT were the driving force behind the MFP re-
vival, the post-1995 productivity acceleration should be positively related to IT use.
We have constructed MFP growth for 122 individual industries of the Canadian
business sector over the period 1981-2000. The MFP growth of an industry is calcu-
lated as the difference between gross output growth and a share-weighted sum of
input growth for capital service, labour service and intermediate inputs
(Jorgenson, Ho, and Stiroh, 2002).
Table 3 presents summary statistics regarding MFP and ALP growth for the pe-
riod 1995-2000 compared to the period 1988-95. Our results in Table 3 show that
MFP growth increased in 62 of the 122 industries between the 1988-95 and 1995-
2000 periods. These industries include large service industries such as wholesale,
retail, communication services and financial services (see Table A1 in the appen-
dix). As such, the industries with accelerating MFP growth accounted for the
majority of gross output and hours worked (76.8 percent of total hours and
67.0 percent of gross output in 1995). We conclude that the post-1995 productiv-
ity growth acceleration has been pervasive across Canadian industries.
64
Information Technology and Productivity Growth
Table 3
where ∆lnAi,t is annual MFP growth for industry i, t is either years 1981 to 2000
or years 1988 to 2000. The coefficient α shows the mean MFP growth prior to
1995, and β the mean change in MFP growth in the 1995-2000 period compared
to either 1981-95 or 1988-95 period.
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Gu & Wang
Our growth decomposition shows that the post-1995 acceleration in labour pro-
ductivity growth for the business sector is almost entirely attributed to the accel-
eration in MFP growth. IT capital deepening made little contribution to this rise
in labour productivity growth.
While IT capital accumulation was not directly responsible for the recent pickup
in labour productivity growth in Canada, it has been suggested that IT may be
linked to MFP growth through organizational innovation and spillover or net-
work effects (Gera, Gu, and Lee, 1999; OECD, 2003). IT has allowed firms to
adopt more efficient work organization, and improve communication between
producers and consumers. This new technology has allowed new businesses and
markets to flourish. In addition, IT industries develop, deliver and support
products and services at the heart of the technology revolution (Beckstead and
Gellatly, 2003). The OECD (2003, p.16) concludes that these additional gains has
been important for Australia, Canada and the United States.
Our finding that MFP growth acceleration is pervasive across industries suggests
that IT could be an important force behind the MFP growth. In this section, we
use the growth accounting technique to examine the contribution of IT-intensive
industries to increases in aggregate MFP growth in the 1990s. If IT has a positive
effect on MFP growth, most MFP growth acceleration in the Canadian business
sector should come from those industries that have invested heavily in IT.
Table 4
1988-2000 1981-2000
0.226** 0.274***
Constant — —
(2.41) (3.81)
0.309** 0.286** 0.262* 0.254*
Post-1995 Dummy
(2.13) (2.03) (1.87) (1.86)
Industry Fixed Effects No Yes No Yes
Note: The coefficient estimates are based on a weighted least square regression nominal output
as weights. t-statistics are in parentheses. One asterisk denotes statistical significance at the
10-percent level, two asterisks denote the 5-percent level, and three asterisks the 1-percent
level.
66
Information Technology and Productivity Growth
In Table 5, we have divided industries into those that are IT-intensive and non-
IT-intensive, using the IT share of capital services in 1995. These two groups are
defined such that each accounted for about half of the aggregate output for the
period 1988-95. There are a total of 33 IT-intensive industries, and the remaining
89 industries are classified as non-IT-intensive. Table A1 in the Appendix pro-
vides a list of the 33 IT-intensive industries. Most IT service industries such as
wholesale and retail trade, financial services and communication services are
classified as IT-intensive industries.
Our results show that IT-intensive industries made little contribution to MFP
growth before 1995. Almost all MFP growth of the business sector can be attrib-
uted to non-IT-intensive industries for the period 1981-95. However, after 1995,
IT-intensive industries were a much more important source of aggregate MFP
growth than non-IT-intensive industries. For the period 1995-2000, IT-intensive
industries contributed 0.71 percentage points or 66 percent of the aggregate MFP
growth.
Table 5
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Gu & Wang
Table 6
Annual MFP growth of the business sector rose by 0.49 percentage points in the
period 1995-2000 relative to 1988-95. Our results show that all of this acceleration is
due to the increased MFP growth in IT-intensive industries. As shown in Table 6,
8 of the top 10 contributors to the post-1995 rise in MFP growth are IT-intensive
services industries.3 None of these industries are manufacturing industries that
produce IT. This provides evidence in support of the view that IT use has raised
MFP growth of the Canadian business sector
In this section, we address the issue of whether the aggregate MFP growth re-
vival is linked to IT use by examining cross-industry relationship between IT use
and MFP growth. If IT is a main factor for faster productivity growth, the indus-
tries that are more IT intensive should have larger gains in productivity growth.
Table 7 presents average MFP growth for IT- and non-IT-intensive industries.
During the period 1988-95, IT-intensive industries have slower MFP growth than
non-IT-intensive industries. This suggests that IT made little contribution to pro-
ductivity growth in the Canadian business sector before the mid-1990s. After 1995,
68
Information Technology and Productivity Growth
Table 7
We have estimated the correlation between changes in MFP growth during the
1988-95 and 1995-2000 periods across industries against IT share in 1995. We find
that there is a positive and statistically significant relationship between MFP
growth changes and IT share of capital services across Canadian industries. That
is, industries that are more IT intensive had larger increases in MFP growth be-
tween these two periods.
∆ ln Ai ,t = α + β D + γ IT95 + η D ⋅ IT95 + ε i ,t ,
(4)
with D = 1 if t > 1995, D = 0 otherwise
69
Gu & Wang
where ∆lnAi,t is annual MFP growth for industry i, IT95 is IT share of capital ser-
vice in 1995, the coefficient γ shows the relationship between IT and productivity
growth before 1995, the coefficient η measures the association between IT and
post-1995 changes in MFP growth.
The results, shown in Table 8, show there is a positive and statistically significant
relationship between IT and productivity growth acceleration across industries. The
effects are quite large. Our estimates show that a 0.1 percentage-point increase in IT
capital share is associated with a 0.4 percentage-point acceleration in annual MFP
growth after 1995. This supports the view that the industries that purchased
more IT experienced larger productivity gains later on. Our finding on a positive
relationship between IT capital share and MFP growth acceleration provides
evidence for the view that IT raised MFP through complementary organizational
innovation and spillover or network effects.
Table 8
1988-2000 1981-2000
0.515*** 0.624***
Constant — —
(3.28) (5.24)
-1.261** -1.590***
IT-Intensity — —
(-2.28) (-3.68)
-0.433* -0.502** -0.542** -0.593***
Post-1995 Dummy
(-1.78) (-2.13) (-2.32) (-2.62)
Post-1995 Dummy*IT- 3.173*** 3.366*** 3.503*** 3.644***
Intensity (3.78) (4.15) (4.33) (4.66)
Industry Fixed Effects No Yes No Yes
Note: The coefficient estimates are based on a weighted least square using nominal output as
weights for MFP growth regression. t-statistics are in parentheses. One asterisk denotes
statistical significance at the 10-percent level, two asterisks denote the 5-percent level, and
three asterisks the 1-percent level.
70
Information Technology and Productivity Growth
Robustness Checks
IT-producing industries had rapid MFP growth and they were also among the
most IT-intensive.4 When we rerun regression (4) on a sample of industries that
exclude the IT-producing industries, we obtain similar results (Table 10).
Table 9
1988-2000 1981-2000
0.717*** 0.484***
Constant — —
(3.82) (5.68)
-1.291 -0.032***
IT Intensive — —
(-1.57) (-4.54)
-0.752*** -0.750*** -0.094 -0.643**
Post-1995 Dummy
(-2.61) (-2.66) (-0.56) (-2.38)
Post-1995 Dummy*IT- 4.757*** 4.644*** 0.050*** 3.063**
Intensity (3.73) (3.73) (3.96) (2.56)
Industry Fixed Effects No Yes No Yes
Note: The coefficient estimates are based on a weighted least square regression using nominal
output as weights for MFP growth regression. t-statistics are in parentheses. One asterisk
denotes statistical significance at the 10-percent level, two asterisks denote the 5-percent
level, and three asterisks the 1-percent level.
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Gu & Wang
Table 10
1988-2000 1981-2000
0.589*** 0.762***
Constant — —
(3.81) (6.49)
–1.888*** –2.640***
IT Intensive — —
(–3.34) (-5.94)
–0.442* –0.498** –0.615*** –0.646***
Post-1995 Dummy
(–1.85) (–2.13) (–2.68) (–2.86)
Post-1995 Dummy*IT- 3.086*** 3.246*** 3.839*** 3.898***
Intensity (3.61) (3.89) (4.64) (4.81)
Industry Fixed Effects No Yes No Yes
Note: The coefficient estimates are based on a weighted least square regression using nominal
output as weights for MFP growth regression. t-statistics are in parentheses. One asterisk
denotes statistical significance at the 10-percent level, two asterisks denote the 5-percent
level, and three asterisks the 1-percent level.
Our empirical specification in equation (4) for examining the relationship be-
tween IT and MFP growth puts all the explanatory burden on IT capital share. It
is possible that other variables, such as the share of intermediate input in nomi-
nal output, are also linked to the acceleration in MFP growth. When we replace
IT capital share in Equation (4) by intermediate input share, we find that the new
variable is not related to MFP growth (Table 12).5
In sum, we find strong and robust evidence that IT is linked the post-1995 MFP
growth acceleration across Canadian industries. Our evidence supports the view
that IT raised MFP in Canada through IT-induced organizational innovation and
network or spillover effects.
72
Information Technology and Productivity Growth
Table 11
1988-2000 1981-2000
0.375*** 0.484***
Constant — —
(3.32) (5.68)
–0.021** –0.032***
IT Service-output ratio — —
(-2.36) (–4.54)
–0.015 –0.034 –0.094 –0.150
Post-1995 Dummy
(–0.09) (–0.20) (-0.56) (–0.92)
Post-1995 Dummy*IT- 0.039*** 0.043*** 0.050*** 0.054***
output Ratio (2.99) (3.35) (3.96) (4.43)
Industry Fixed Effects No Yes No Yes
Note: The coefficient estimates are based on a weighted least square regression using nominal
output as weights for MFP growth regression. t-statistics are in parentheses. One asterisk
denotes statistical significance at the 10-percent level, two asterisks denote the 5-percent
level, and three asterisks the 1-percent level.
Table 12
1988-2000 1981-2000
0.348 0.855***
Constant — —
(1.36) (4.43)
Intermediate Input-output –0.002 –0.011***
— —
Ratio (–0.51) (–3.25)
0.281 0.336 –0.226 –0.071
Post-1995 Dummy
(0.71) (0.88) (–0.60) (–0.19)
Post-1995 Dummy*Inter. 0.001 –0.001 0.010 0.006
Input-output Ratio (0.08) (–0.14) (1.38) (0.96)
Industry Fixed Effects No Yes No Yes
Note: The coefficient estimates are based on a weighted least square regression using nominal
output as weights for MFP growth regression. t-statistics are in parentheses. One asterisk
denotes statistical significance at the 10-percent level, two asterisks denote the 5-percent
level, and three asterisks the 1-percent level.
73
Gu & Wang
Our finding for Canada is consistent with the one for the United States that is
reported in Basu et al. (2003). Basu et al. (2003) find that IT use is linked to MFP
growth in the U.S. business sector during the 1990s. They interpret this as evi-
dence that IT has raised multifactor productivity in the United States through
purposeful co-invention in organizational capital and externalities associated
with IT investments.
Stiroh (2002a) has also examined the relationship between IT and MFP growth
revival and finds that IT is not related to the acceleration in MFP growth across
the U.S. manufacturing industries. However, most IT investments are in non-
manufacturing industries such as finance, insurance and real estate, and whole-
sale and retail trade. His focus on manufacturing industries may have missed the
biggest impact from IT.
O UR RESULTS SHOW that IT is linked to the post-1995 rise in MFP growth in the
Canadian business sector. In this section, we ask whether there are other
industry characteristics that are related to the MFP acceleration. Previous studies
have argued that firms must have skilled workers to realize the productivity
potential from new technologies such as IT. That is, skilled workers are comple-
mentary to IT in improving productivity performance (Jorgenson, Ho, and Sti-
roh, 2002; Bresnahan, Brynjolfsson, and Hitt, 2002). It can be also argued that the
industries that face greater international competition are more likely to adopt
changes in workplace practices to enhance gains from IT. Indeed, Caselli and
Coleman II (2001) find that countries that are more open to international trade
tend to have faster adoption of computers.
To examine the role of human capital in raising productivity gains of IT, we ex-
tend Equation (4) with an additional variable — the share of university workers
(measured in 1995) and its interaction term with IT intensity (also measured in
1995). The results are shown in Table 13. The positive coefficient on the interac-
tion term between IT capital share and university-educated worker share suggest
that the industries that are both more IT intensive and more skill intensive had
larger gains in productivity growth after 1995. The effects are quite large. Our
estimates show that a 0.1 percentage-point increase in IT capital share and uni-
versity worker share is associated with a 0.2 percentage-point acceleration in an-
nual MFP and labour productivity growth in the 1995-2000 period in comparison
74
Information Technology and Productivity Growth
Table 13
1988-2000 1981-2000
0.829** 0.457
Post-1995 Dummy
(2.09) (1.19)
2.139 2.494
Post-1995 Dummy*IT-Intensity
(1.28) (1.54)
–12.41*** –9.573***
Post-1995 Dummy*University
(–4.98) (–4.00)
18.21*** 14.60**
Post-1995 Dummy*IT-Intensity*University
(2.84) (2.35)
Note: The coefficient estimates are based on a weighted least square regression using nominal
output as weights for MFP growth regression. All regressions include industry fixed
effects. t-statistics are in parentheses. One asterisk denotes statistical significance at the
10-percent level, two asterisks denote the 5-percent level, and three asterisks the 1-percent
level.
with the 1988-95 period. This is consistent with the view that IT and skilled
workers are complementary in improving productivity performance.
Finally, we examine the issue of whether industries that are more open to interna-
tional trade have larger productivity gains from IT. Baldwin and Gu (2003) find that
export orientation is related to growth and success among Canadian manufacturing
plants. As trade data are not available for non-manufacturing industries at our
level of industry detail, we restrict our analysis to a sample of manufacturing
industries. The results are shown in Table 14.
In Table 14, trade openness is defined as the ratio of exports plus imports to
nominal gross output in 1995. In contrast to our results for the business sector,
there is no evidence that MFP accelerated after 1995 for the manufacturing indus-
tries. The positive coefficient on the interaction term of IT intensity and trade
openness suggests that the industries that are more open to international trade
have larger gains in productivity growth in the 1995-2000 period. The coefficient
estimate is statistically significant at the 10 percent level.6
75
Gu & Wang
Table 14
Regression Results for IT, Trade Openness and Productivity Growth
(on a sample of manufacturing industries)
Dependent Variable: Annual MFP Growth
1988-2000 1981-2000
0.662 0.357
Post-1995 Dummy
(0.81) (0.47)
–4.794 –1.631
Post-1995 Dummy*IT-intensity
(–1.15) (–0.42)
–0.874 –0.376
Post-1995 Dummy*Trade
(–1.25) (–0.58)
5.082* 1.606
Post-1995 Dummy*IT-intensity*Trade
(1.59) (0.54)
Note: The coefficient estimates are based on a weighted least square regression nominal output
as weights for MFP growth regression. All regressions include industry fixed effects.
t-statistics are in parentheses. One asterisk denotes statistical significance at the 10-percent
level, two asterisks denote the 5-percent level, and three asterisks the 1-percent level.
Conclusion
First, our results show that the pickup in labour productivity growth in the Ca-
nadian business sector is almost entirely due to the acceleration in MFP growth.
Capital deepening was not a contributing factor to the labour productivity
growth revival. However, capital deepening from IT increased after 1995, mak-
ing a positive though small contribution to the post-1995 labour productivity
growth acceleration in Canada. Our results for Canada are in sharp contrast to
the results for the United States. In the United States, both rapid IT capital deep-
ening and MFP growth acceleration made important contributions to the labour
productivity growth revival during the 1990s.
Second, while IT capital deepening made little direct contribution to the labour
productivity growth revival in Canada during the 1990s, we find that IT is linked
to the MFP growth acceleration in Canada through network and spillover effects.
76
Information Technology and Productivity Growth
IT has allowed firms to adopt a more efficient work organization and improve
communication between producers and consumers. A number of findings support
this view. First, the MFP growth acceleration was pervasive across industries. The
industries that experienced MFP acceleration in the 1990s accounted for more than
70 percent of output. Second, all MFP growth acceleration in the 1990s was from
IT-intensive industries. Eight of the top ten contributors to the MFP growth accel-
eration are IT-intensive service industries including: retail trade, communication
services, financial services and business services. Third, more IT-intensive indus-
tries showed larger MFP growth acceleration in the 1990s than less IT-intensive
industries. These findings also support the view in Robidoux and Wong (2003) that
the post-1995 productivity growth acceleration that occurred in Canada is a real
phenomenon and not only a cyclical one. If the productivity growth acceleration in
Canada was due to cyclical forces, these cyclical forces would have to be concen-
trated in IT-intensive industries for this to be the whole story.7
Third, consistent with the view that knowledge workers are complementary to
IT, we find that industries that have a larger share of knowledge workers have
larger productivity gains from IT. We also find some evidence that manufactur-
ing industries that are more open to international trade have larger productivity
gains from IT.
Endnotes
1 The two other studies in this volume have also focused on the distinction between IT
use and IT production (Ho, Rao, and Tang, 2003; Harchaoui, Tarkhani, and Khanam,
2003).
77
Gu & Wang
1981-2000, the coefficient on the interaction of intermediate input share and post-
1995 dummy is positive and statistically significant at the 5 percent level.
6 For manufacturing industries, we have run a regression that includes both the
interaction of trade openness and IT and the interaction of skilled worker share
and IT share. We find the coefficient on the former is positive and statistically sig-
nificant at the 5 percent level, suggesting a complementary relationship between IT
and skilled workers in Canadian manufacturing industries. The coefficient on the
interaction of trade openness and IT share is positive. But it is no longer statisti-
cally significant at the 10 percent level.
7 Stiroh (2002b) made a similar argument against the view that the productivity
revival in the United States during the 1990s is not a real phenomenon but only a
cyclical one.
Acknowledgments
W E WOULD LIKE TO THANK John Baldwin, Mike Denny, Erwin Diewert and
Tarek Harchaoui for their helpful comments. Views expressed in this
study do not necessarily reflect those of Statistics Canada nor Industry Canada.
Bibliography
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Economic Growth in the Information Age, 1981-2000: The Importance of
Investment in Information and Communications Technologies.” Economic Analysis
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Baldwin, J.B., and W. Gu. “Export-market Participation and Productivity Performance in
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79
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80
Information Technology and Productivity Growth
Appendix
Table A1
IT share of Capital
Industry Service in 1995
Educational Service Industries 0.7915
Membership Org. (excl. religious) and Other Service Industries 0.7236
Other Business Services Industries 0.6448
Telecommunication Carriers Industries 0.6447
Amusement and Recreational Services 0.4854
Vegetable Oil Mills (except corn oil) 0.4457
Office, Store and Business Machine Industries 0.3870
Telecommunication Broadcasting Industry 0.3803
Water Systems and Other Utility Industries N.E.C. 0.3709
Plastic and Synthetic Resin Industry 0.3644
Finance and Real Estate Industries 0.3575
Postal and Courier Service Industries 0.3545
Major Appliances Industries (electric and non-electric) 0.3212
Rubber Products Industries 0.3205
Communication and Other Electronic Equipment Industries 0.3169
Industrial Chemicals Industries N.E.C. 0.3146
Retail Trade Industries 0.3121
Other Transport Services 0.3112
Communication and Energy Wire and Cable Industries 0.3059
Refined Petroleum and Coal Products Ind. 0.3010
Record Player, Radio and Television Receiver Industries 0.2868
Wholesale Trade Industries 0.2762
Other Electrical and Electronic Product Industries 0.2661
Other Manufacturing Industries 0.2616
Printing and Publishing Industries 0.2610
Insurance Industries 0.2530
Other Personal Service Industries 0.2492
Other Health and Social Service Industries 0.2398
Accommodation and Food Services Industries 0.2382
Air Transport and Related Service Industries 0.2324
Electric Power Systems Industry 0.2294
Gas Distribution Systems Industry 0.2176
Platemaking, Typesetting and Bindery Industries 0.2157
81
Sources of Output Growth in Canadian and 4
U.S. Industries in the Information Age
Abstract
I N THIS STUDY, WE COMPARE AND CONTRAST the sources of economic and labour
productivity growth in Canadian and U.S. industries, using newly developed
and comparable data for 34 industries covering 1981-2000. We focus on informa-
tion technology (IT), as both outputs and inputs. Our research shows that output
growth in the United States and its acceleration in the second half of the 1990s
were driven largely by the accumulation of IT capital and the increased use of
university trained workers. In contrast, the growth in Canada was mainly due to
the accumulation of non-IT capital and the increased use of non-university la-
bour. The resurgence of the U.S. economy was relatively more concentrated in
IT-producing industries while in Canada it was widespread across industries.
The contribution of IT capital deepening to labour productivity growth in Canada
during the second half of the 1990s was small, but it was the driving force behind
the labour productivity growth revival in the United States and its impact was
widespread across U.S. industries. Finally, in both countries, IT capital had its
largest impact in IT-producing industries, followed by IT-using industries.
Introduction
83
Ho, Rao & Tang
However, the size of the impact of the two factors is by no means uniform across
countries or industries. Stiroh (2002) shows that while IT investments affected
many industries in the United States, the degree to which productivity growth is
affected is different across industries. Differences in educational attainment also
occur across industries, as shown by Jorgenson, Ho, and Stiroh (2002). Similar
developments are taking place in Canada, but there are two significant differ-
ences between the two countries. First, Canada is less affected by the IT devel-
opment than the United States — the size of IT-producing industries is small,
and Canada invests less in IT in terms of investment to GDP ratio or IT invest-
ment intensity (Rao and Tang, 2001; Harchaoui, Tarkhani, Jackson, and Arm-
strong, 2002). Second, a smaller portion of the labour force in Canada has univer-
sity education or higher, although the gap narrowed slightly during the second
half of the 1990s (Rao, Tang, and Wang, 2002). We shall discuss these differences
in this study.
The resurgence of growth in output, labour productivity, and total factor produc-
tivity in the United States since 1995 is remarkable. As shown later in this study,
the output of the aggregate business sector in the United States grew at
4.5 percent per year during the second half of the 1990s compared to 2.6 percent
in the first half. Many authors have attributed a key role to IT for this revival. Of
the 4.5 percent growth, IT capital contributed 1.2 percentage points even though
it accounts for less than 10 percent of capital input [e.g. Jorgenson, Ho and Stiroh
(2002) and Oliner and Sichel (2000)]. The acceleration in output growth was even
bigger in Canada, increasing from 2.1 percent per year to 5.0 percent. In Canada,
the IT capital is also playing an increasingly significant role in aggregate output
growth.
However, when compared to the United States, the improvement in labour pro-
ductivity growth (output per hour) in the Canadian business sector was fairly
modest despite greater acceleration in output growth. In the United States, la-
bour productivity growth increased from 1.0 percent per year during 1988-95 to
2.3 percent during 1995-2000, while Canadian productivity growth increased
from 1.6 percent to 1.9 percent. In addition, the sources of labour productivity
growth were different in the two countries. In the United States, the contribution
from IT capital rose from 0.5 to 1.0 percentage points, while in Canada it merely
84
Sources of Output Growth in Canadian and U.S. Industries
increased from 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points. These differences are replicated to
some extent at the detailed industry level.
Our main objective in this study is to provide an in-depth study of the role of IT
revolution in these recent economic and productivity growth trends in Canada.
By using comparable data and methodology, we also compare and contrast the
Canadian findings with the U.S. experience, and explore possible reasons for the
differences in trends in the two economies. In particular, we examine the indus-
try impact of IT and higher education on output and labour productivity growth
in both countries. By disaggregating total capital into IT and non-IT capital and
by separating labour input into university and non-university education, we
examine the reasons for differences in economic and labour productivity growth
across industries in the two countries. Two specific questions are addressed.
First, are differences in industry output and productivity growth between Canada
and the United States linked to IT and higher education? Second, is the difference
in performance widespread, or concentrated just in IT-producing and heavy IT-
using industries?
Using newly developed data covering the 1981-2000 period, we examine and
compare the sources of economic and productivity growth in the two countries
for a set of 34 industries that are specially grouped to focus on IT and to do in-
ternational comparisons. The concordance and industrial classification codes for
both Canada and the United States are listed in Table 1. Most of the sectors are
the familiar two-digit ones, but some industries are further disaggregated. For
example, computer is separated from other machinery; communications and elec-
tronic equipment from other electrical equipment; and business services (including
software), health and education from other services.3
Given our focus on IT, we divide capital input into IT (computer equipment,
communication equipment and software) and non-IT (structures, other machin-
ery and equipment, inventories and land). Although IT capital is only a small
share of total capital (less than 5 percent of the stock in the United States in 2001),
it is growing rapidly. We disaggregate labour input into university and non-
university educated types. On the output side, to measure the impact of IT, fol-
lowing van Ark, Inklaar, and McGuckin (2003), we group the 34 industries into
three major groups — IT-producing, IT-intensive using and non-IT using indus-
tries. To determine whether an industry is an intensive user of IT or not, they used
the share of IT capital in total capital input in U.S. industries from Stiroh (2002).
The IT-producing industries are: computers; communication and electronic
equipment; and communication services. The first two are IT-manufacturing
85
Ho, Rao & Tang
industries and the last is an IT service producing industry.4 The IT-intensive us-
ing industries (hereafter abbreviated as IT-using industries) are: machinery ex-
cluding computers; electrical equipment; other transportation equipment; print-
ing and publishing; miscellaneous manufacturing; wholesale trade; retail trade;
finance, insurance and real estate (FIRE); and business services. The remaining
22 industries in Table 1 are categorized as non-IT industries.
Our paper is a product of the joint research by Industry Canada, Statistics Canada
and Jorgenson Associates.5 An earlier study, Jorgenson and Lee (2001), quantified
the sources of output and productivity growth in Canada and the United States
by developing comparable data for Canada, using the same methodology. Two
of the studies in this monograph presented detailed industry comparisons of
trends of output, inputs and productivity (Gu and Ho, 2000) and productivity
levels (Lee and Tang, 2000) in the two countries. In the present study, we follow
the framework of Gu and Ho (2000), focusing on IT and highly educated labour. 6
In the next section, entitled Empirical Framework, we set up a framework for ex-
amining the sources of output and labour productivity growth at the industry
level. In the same section, we also outline the framework for analyzing the con-
tribution of individual industries to aggregate output and aggregate labour pro-
ductivity growth. In the section entitled Data and Measurements Issues, we de-
scribe the data used. In the section entitled Growth Accounting Results, we report
the results on sources of output and labour productivity growth in individual
industries in the two countries. In this section, we also compare the performance
of the two countries, and give the sources of aggregate output and labour pro-
ductivity growth for both countries. We give a summary of the key findings in
the concluding section.
86
Table 1
Empirical Framework
Industry Analysis
We assume that the production function for industry i has the form:
where Yi is annual industry gross output; KiIT and KiNIT are IT and non-IT capi-
tal inputs; LBA
i and LNBA
i are labour inputs with and without at least a B.A. de-
gree; Mi is total intermediate input; and Ai is the augment factor of the input
function, often referred as multifactor productivity (MFP).7
Under the assumption of constant returns to scale and competitive product and
factor markets, the translog index of productivity growth for industry i is :
piM,t M i ,t
vm , i , t = ; vm ,i ,t = 21 ( vm , i ,t -1 + vm , i ,t ) ,
piY,tYi ,t
89
Ho, Rao & Tang
We shall also be examining the growth in output per hour worked, or labour
productivity growth. By rewriting Equation (2), the translog index of labour pro-
ductivity growth for industry i may be expressed as:
where the lower case variables denote the corresponding quantity per hour
worked. Denoting the total hours worked by Hi, we have:
Labour productivity growth is equal to the change in MFP plus the weighted
sum of changes in intensity of inputs. The change in capital input intensity is
often referred to as capital deepening. Under this framework, the change in MFP is
measured as the residual of labour productivity growth net contributions from
capital deepening, labour quality improvement and an increase in intermediate
input intensity.9 Because of the constant return to scale assumption, MFP derived
from Equations (2) and (3) will be identical.
90
Sources of Output Growth in Canadian and U.S. Industries
an input should generally equal its price. Our approach here of separating IT
capital from non-IT will generate slower changes in capital quality indexes than
previous work which employs only one capital input index. A detailed discussion
of measuring constant quality capital and labour inputs is given in Appendix A.
In order to provide an overall view of the entire business sector, in this section
we describe a framework to aggregate across industries.12 The existence of an
aggregate production function requires strong assumptions. Here we follow the
production possibility frontier approach in Jorgenson, Ho, and Stiroh (2002),
which relaxes the assumptions of identical industry value-added functions.
34
(4) ∆ ln V = ∑ w
i ∆ ln Vi ,
i =1
pVitVit
wit = .
∑ j pVjtVjt
The value added of industry i is defined as an index of gross output less inter-
mediate inputs:
1
(5) ∆ ln Vi = ⎡ ∆ ln Yi − ( 1 − vv , i ) ∆ ln Mi ⎤⎦ ,
vv , i ⎣
where vv ,i is the two-period average share of nominal value added in nominal
gross output in industry i.
91
Ho, Rao & Tang
where K IT and K NIT are aggregate IT and non-IT capital inputs; LBA and LNBA
are aggregate university and non-university labour inputs; and A is aggregate
MFP.
where vX is the two-period average income share of input X in the value of ag-
gregate value added, and the sum of income shares of all factor inputs equals 1.
Each aggregate input is defined as a translog index over the industry input. For
example, IT capital input is:
34
(8) ∆ ln K IT = ∑ w
IT ,i ∆ ln K iIT ,
i =1
Let Ht = ∑iHi,t denote the aggregate hours worked. Rewriting Equation (7) in
terms of per hour worked intensities, the translog index of labour productivity
growth at the aggregate level is:
where the lower case variables denote the corresponding quantities per hour
worked.
92
Sources of Output Growth in Canadian and U.S. Industries
LVPit = Vit / H it .
This should be distinguished from gross output per hour defined in Equation (3).
With the above pieces, we can now describe the decomposition of aggregate
productivity into the industry contributions. Subtracting hours from both sides
of Equation (4), we get the relation between aggregate labour productivity and
industry productivity:
34
⎛ 34 ⎞
(10) ∆ ln LVP = ∑ w i ∆ ln LVPi + ⎜ ∑ w i ∆ ln H i − ∆ ln H ⎟ .
i =1 ⎝ i =1 ⎠
The first term is industry contributions to the aggregate labour productivity and
the second term is the reallocation of hours across industries.
The relation between aggregate and sectoral MFP is derived by multiplying both
sides of the industry MFP equation [Equation (2)] by the industry share of value
added, w i , dividing by the share of value added in industry output, vv ,i and
summing over all industries. Then substituting Equations (4), (5), and (7) we get:
34
wi
∆ ln A = ∑ ∆ ln Ai
i =1 vv , i
⎛ 34 w ⎞
+ ⎜⎜ ∑ i vIT ,i ∆ ln K IT ,i − vIT ∆ ln K IT ⎟⎟
⎝ i = 1 vv , i ⎠
⎛ 34 w ⎞
(11) + ⎜⎜ ∑ i vNIT ,i ∆ ln K NIT ,i − vNIT ∆ ln K NIT ⎟⎟
⎝ i = 1 vv , i ⎠
⎛ 34 w ⎞
+ ⎜⎜ ∑ i vBA , i ∆ ln LBA ,i − vBA ∆ ln LBA ⎟⎟
⎝ i = 1 vv , i ⎠
⎛ 34 w ⎞
+ ⎜⎜ ∑ i vNBA , i ∆ ln LNBA ,i − vNBA ∆ ln LNBA ⎟⎟ .
⎝ i = 1 vv , i ⎠
93
Ho, Rao & Tang
The first term in above equation is the “Domar weighted” aggregate MFP growth
(Domar 1961). The next four terms are the reallocation effects of four primary
factors across industries.
Given the way we defined aggregate factor input in Equation (8), which is unlike
the treatment in Jorgenson, Ho and Stiroh (2002), the reallocation effects are es-
sentially zero. Thus Equation (11) is essentially:
34
wi
(12) ∆ ln A = ∑ ∆ ln Ai .
i =1 vv , i
94
Sources of Output Growth in Canadian and U.S. Industries
(OECD) productivity manual, thereby making the comparison between the two
countries reliable.
Note, however, that like many other studies, the estimates in this study are sub-
ject to measurement errors for both output and inputs, especially for those in the
services industries. Estimates for industries with consistently negative productiv-
ity growth should be interpreted with caution (for possible reasons for consis-
tently negative productivity growth, see Rao, Sharpe, and Tang, 2003).
For this study, gross output and intermediate input values come from a time
series of consistent input-output tables. The price indexes for output also are
from Statistics Canada and are also used to construct prices of intermediate in-
puts. The input-output tables are generally recorded in a very similar fashion in
Canada and the United States. Thus, output and intermediate inputs are fairly
comparable. However, our construction of capital and labour inputs is more
complicated and some elaboration is in order here.
Capital Input
Capital stock for each type of asset is constructed by using investment data in
constant dollars. Thus, investment price is important for the comparability of
capital input in Canada and the United States. This is especially true for IT assets
since there is no standard methodology to estimate IT investment prices.
IT assets for both Canada and the United States are computer equipment, com-
munication equipment, and software. The IT has become increasingly important
in total machinery and equipment investment.16 The investment price indexes for
those assets diverge significantly across OECD countries due to different meth-
odologies used in estimating the indexes.17 Thus, it is important here to docu-
ment the methodology used in Canada and the United States. Fortunately, the
methods used by Canada and the United States to develop the IT price indexes
are fairly similar. Statistical agencies in Canada and the United States have
worked very closely and made extensive use of the hedonic regression technique
and the match model technique in estimating the prices of IT.18 IT price indexes
comparisons and a detailed documentation of the methodologies used to con-
struct IT price indexes are given in Appendix B.
It should be noted that the two countries estimate capital stock at the industry
level in quite different ways. The United States calculates aggregated flows
from commodity data and then spread them using the Tangible Wealth Survey
95
Ho, Rao & Tang
The depreciation rates are significantly higher in Canada than in the United
States for IT and structures. Our experiments with Canadian aggregate invest-
ment data show that this may under- or over-estimate capital stock growth of an
asset in Canada relative to the United States, depending on the growth rate of
investment in the asset—though it has less of an influence on the growth of capi-
tal services that are used here. If the asset is a faster growth investment, then a
higher depreciation rate will lead to a higher growth of capital stock. This is the
case for IT investment, especially for the second half of the 1990s. On the other
hand, if the asset is a slower growth investment, then a higher depreciation rate
will lead to a slower growth of capital stock. This is the case for structures. There-
fore, the difference in the usage of depreciation rates in deriving IT and non-
capital inputs will generally lead to higher IT capital and lower non-IT capital
contribution to economic growth. Similarly, it will lead to a higher contribution
of IT capital deepening or a lower contribution of non-IT capital deepening to
labour productivity growth.
96
Sources of Output Growth in Canadian and U.S. Industries
Table 2
97
Ho, Rao & Tang
The difference in depreciation rates may also lead to a different estimate of MFP
growth rate due to MFP being calculated as residuals of gross output net all in-
puts. Given that the value of structures is much larger than that of IT, the overall
impact may lead to a higher estimate of MFP growth rate. However, further
study is required for reaching a firm conclusion.
Labour Input
In our framework, labour inputs for each industry are hours worked aggregated
over the demographic groups using labour compensation as weights. The labour
categories used for Canada include seven age groups, four education attainment
groups, two sexes and two classes of employment. The classification details are
listed in Table 3 for both countries. The labour force categories for the two coun-
tries are generally similar except for education.20 In the Canadian calculations,
B.A. degree and above is a single group, whereas in the U.S. data it is divided
into B.A. and more than B.A. However, our experiments with U.S. data show
that this distinction has a negligible impact on the labour input estimates.
For Canada, the labour data are derived from the Census of Population, supple-
mented by the annual Survey of Consumer Finance and the monthly Labour
Force Surveys. The estimates of hours worked and labour compensation for each
industry are benchmarked to official measures of hours worked and compensa-
tion by Statistics Canada. A detailed description is given in Gu, Kaci, Maynard,
and Sillamaa (2003).
For the United States, the labour data are derived from the Census of Population
and the annual Current Population Survey, supplemented by U.S. National In-
come and Product Account (NIPA) data produced by the U.S. Bureau of Eco-
nomic Analysis (BEA). The final estimates of hours, based on the hours paid
from the BEA, for each industry is scaled to hours worked from the Survey of
Hours at Work by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Similarly, the individual
labour compensation data from the population surveys are scaled so that total
labour compensation in each industry matches the NIPA totals. For a detailed
discussion, see Jorgenson, Ho, and Stiroh (2002).
98
Table 3
Canada
Characteristics Number of Categories Type
Sex 2 Female, male
Based on Equation (2), gross output growth of each industry is decomposed into
MFP and the contributions associated with the five inputs — IT capital, non-IT
capital, university labour, non-university labour and intermediate inputs. The
decomposition results for Canada are reported in Tables 4 through 6 for three
sub-periods: 1981-88, 1988-95, and 1995-2000.21 The results for the United States
are in Tables 7 through 9. For analytical purposes, we also report averages for the
IT-producing, IT-using, and non-IT groups.22
IT-producing Industries
By any standard, the output growth in the three IT-producing industries has
been extraordinary. In Canada, gross output of the computer equipment industry
grew at 16.5 percent per year in the late 1990s after a growth of 23.5 percent in
the 1980s. Over the latter half of the 1990s, gross output of the communication
and electronic equipment industry grew at 14.5 percent, compared to 5.7 percent
growth rate in the communications industry. The U.S. growth rates were even
more astounding in the boom period of 1995-2000: computer equipment at
31.5 percent per year, communication and electronic equipment at 23.5 percent
and communications at 6.4 percent. On average, gross output in IT-producing
industries grew at an annual rate of 8.5 percent in Canada and 10.5 percent in the
United States over the past 20 years.
The unprecedented output growth rates were mainly due to the strong growth
in MFP and intermediate input. Over the last 20 years, the average MFP growth
in the three IT-producing industries in Canada was 2.3 percent while in the
United States, it was 4.2 percent. The contribution from the intermediate input
was also sizable — 4.1 percentage points in Canada and 4.5 percentage points in
100
Sources of Output Growth in Canadian and U.S Industries
the United States. The contributions from other factors such as IT capital and
university-labour were relatively small. However, the absolute contributions of
IT investment to output growth in these industries are considerably larger than
in the IT-using or non-IT industries.
Gross output growth in the U.S. IT-producing industries accelerated in the sec-
ond half of the 1990s from the first half mainly due to the increase in MFP
growth and the increased contribution from intermediate inputs. By contrast, the
acceleration in output growth in Canada was relatively small.
IT-using Industries
IT-using industries, on average, grew faster than non-IT industries in both Canada
and the United States in the second half of the 1990s. In Canada, the gross output
growth of these industries was due to a higher growth in intermediate input and
non-university labour, followed by non-IT and IT capital. In the United States, IT
investments again played a larger role. Of the 5.0 percent annual output growth,
intermediate input contributed 2.3 percent and IT capital 1.0 percent. In both
countries, MFP growth did not play a significant role in these industries.
The acceleration in output growth during the second half of the 1990s was much
greater in Canada than in the United States. However, the sources of increase in
output growth were different in the two countries. In Canada, the biggest change
was non-university labour, the growth rate of which changed from 0.1 to
1.0 percent per year, while in the United States, IT capital growth rose from 0.4 to
1.0 percent.
101
102
Contributions
Gross Non-IT University Non-university Intermediate
Industry Output MFP IT Capital Capital Labour Labour Input
1 Agriculture 0.87 1.35 0.00 –0.53 0.03 0.06 -0.04
2 Non-energy Mining 1.31 1.60 0.01 0.21 0.05 –0.49 -0.08
3 Coal Mining 8.96 7.25 0.00 0.72 –0.03 –0.10 1.12
4 Crude Petroleum 4.00 0.94 0.01 2.87 0.14 0.24 -0.20
5 Construction 1.57 –0.01 0.03 0.08 0.05 0.55 0.87
6 Wood and Furniture 4.91 1.41 0.02 0.03 0.08 0.48 2.89
7 Non-metallic 2.26 1.11 0.03 –0.36 0.07 0.10 1.31
8 Primary Metal 2.16 1.04 0.07 –0.04 0.00 –0.32 1.41
9 Fabricated Metal 1.46 0.56 0.06 –0.02 0.03 0.04 0.78
10 Machinery 0.72 –0.07 0.06 –0.25 0.12 0.45 0.41
11 Computers 23.49 9.84 0.32 1.21 0.37 0.23 11.52
12 Electrical Equipment 1.08 0.44 0.14 0.06 0.12 –0.55 0.87
13 Electronic Equipment 8.54 0.85 0.37 0.85 0.60 0.99 4.88
14 Motor Vehicles 9.79 0.91 0.06 0.63 0.06 0.63 7.50
15 Other Trans. Equipment 0.20 –0.81 0.06 0.00 0.31 –0.24 0.87
16 Misc. Manufacturing 1.72 0.03 0.12 0.22 0.10 0.38 0.86
17 Food and Tobacco 1.04 –0.21 0.03 0.01 0.04 –0.01 1.18
18 Textiles 1.29 0.09 0.03 0.08 0.10 –0.02 1.01
19 Paper and Allied 2.58 –0.13 0.04 0.55 0.03 –0.01 2.12
20 Printing 3.26 –0.48 0.08 0.33 0.11 1.17 2.04
21 Chemicals 2.90 1.02 0.06 –0.23 0.07 0.09 1.89
Table 4 (cont’d)
Contributions
Gross Non-IT University Non-university Intermediate
Industry Output MFP IT Capital Capital Labour Labour Input
22 Petroleum Refining –2.03 –1.44 0.02 –0.01 –0.04 –0.14 -0.41
Contributions
Gross Non-IT University Non-university Intermediate
Industry Output MFP IT Capital Capital Labour Labour Input
1 Agriculture 3.15 1.99 0.03 –0.40 0.11 –0.16 1.58
2 Non-energy Mining 0.03 0.24 0.02 –0.40 0.14 0.00 0.03
3 Coal Mining –0.31 1.26 0.02 –1.42 0.00 0.18 -0.35
4 Crude Petroleum 3.53 1.55 0.01 0.95 0.02 –0.08 1.08
5 Construction –1.82 –0.66 0.02 0.08 0.06 –0.29 -1.02
6 Wood and Furniture 0.76 –0.40 0.02 0.16 0.08 –0.20 1.10
7 Non-metallic –3.01 –0.46 0.05 –0.25 0.07 –1.01 -1.41
8 Primary Metal 1.45 1.45 0.03 –0.27 0.00 –0.56 0.80
9 Fabricated Metal –1.13 0.14 0.01 –0.17 0.05 –0.37 -0.78
10 Machinery 3.27 1.17 0.08 0.36 0.12 –0.35 1.87
11 Computers 19.81 3.43 0.11 0.12 0.04 –0.19 16.31
12 Electrical Equipment –3.40 0.22 0.11 –0.31 –0.01 –1.34 -2.07
13 Electronic Equipment 9.30 2.46 0.13 0.19 0.50 –0.58 6.60
14 Motor Vehicles 4.84 0.65 0.01 0.19 0.08 0.03 3.88
15 Other Trans. Equipment 2.89 0.96 0.02 0.19 0.13 –0.65 2.24
16 Misc. Manufacturing 0.25 0.18 0.12 0.12 0.21 –0.49 0.10
17 Food and Tobacco 0.60 0.28 0.08 –0.14 0.10 –0.18 0.46
18 Textiles –1.93 0.86 0.03 –0.21 0.07 –1.33 -1.36
19 Paper and Allied 1.29 1.55 0.02 –0.56 0.05 –0.38 0.60
20 Printing –2.29 –1.92 0.21 0.18 0.19 –0.47 -0.48
Table 5 (cont’d)
Contributions
Gross Non-IT University Non-university Intermediate
Industry Output MFP IT Capital Capital Labour Labour Input
21 Chemicals 1.44 0.77 0.11 0.18 0.16 –0.22 0.44
Contributions
Gross Non-IT University Non-university Intermediate
Industry Output MFP IT Capital Capital Labour Labour Input
1 Agriculture 3.53 2.12 0.07 0.38 0.04 –0.55 1.48
2 Non-energy Mining 0.76 –0.86 0.05 0.82 0.17 0.84 -0.26
3 Coal Mining –1.65 2.55 0.06 –1.22 –0.08 –1.16 -1.81
4 Crude Petroleum 4.39 –2.57 0.04 3.79 0.07 0.09 2.97
5 Construction 3.62 0.19 0.04 0.16 0.14 1.11 1.97
6 Wood and Furniture 5.35 0.83 0.03 0.40 0.09 0.69 3.30
7 Non-metallic 5.11 1.85 0.07 0.05 0.15 0.63 2.36
8 Primary Metal 4.74 0.96 0.04 0.29 0.05 0.22 3.19
9 Fabricated Metal 6.12 0.49 0.07 0.49 0.18 1.31 3.57
10 Machinery 1.73 –1.20 0.15 0.56 0.19 1.17 0.84
11 Computers 16.52 5.91 0.12 0.12 0.14 0.20 10.04
12 Electrical Equipment 4.38 0.01 0.30 0.91 0.24 0.68 2.25
13 Electronic Equipment 14.49 3.27 0.25 1.46 0.35 0.45 8.71
14 Motor Vehicles 7.96 1.23 0.04 0.29 0.07 0.44 5.90
15 Other Trans. Equipment 7.13 –1.09 0.06 2.03 0.20 0.64 5.30
16 Misc. Manufacturing 5.55 0.48 0.25 0.51 0.22 0.61 3.49
17 Food and Tobacco 2.87 –0.50 0.14 0.33 0.09 0.32 2.48
18 Textiles 1.30 –0.72 0.09 0.12 0.16 0.50 1.16
19 Paper and Allied 1.83 0.28 0.07 0.57 0.04 0.19 0.68
20 Printing 3.89 –1.66 0.42 0.34 0.34 0.94 3.52
Table 6 (cont’d)
Contributions
Gross Non-IT University Non-university Intermediate
Industry Output MFP IT Capital Capital Labour Labour Input
21 Chemicals 2.24 0.18 0.13 0.45 0.23 0.25 0.99
Contributions
Gross Non-IT University Non-university Intermediate
Industry Output MFP IT Capital Capital Labour Labour Input
1 Agriculture 0.77 1.63 0.01 –0.26 0.14 –0.17 -0.58
2 Non-energy Mining 1.56 1.31 0.03 –0.56 –0.14 –1.06 1.97
3 Coal Mining 2.09 3.29 0.01 –0.36 –0.06 –1.85 1.07
4 Crude Petroleum –2.45 0.28 0.07 1.25 –0.24 –0.57 -3.25
5 Construction 3.31 –0.14 0.00 –0.11 0.29 1.24 2.04
6 Wood and Furniture 4.15 1.35 0.03 0.06 0.18 0.68 1.85
7 Non-metallic 2.11 1.24 0.01 –0.12 0.15 0.00 0.83
8 Primary Metal –1.89 0.83 0.04 –0.32 –0.02 –0.62 -1.80
9 Fabricated Metal 1.37 0.66 0.08 0.06 0.02 –0.25 0.80
10 Machinery –1.75 –0.77 0.21 0.14 0.12 –1.05 -0.40
11 Computers 22.44 11.53 0.11 0.01 0.82 –0.18 10.14
12 Electrical Equipment 2.44 1.21 0.17 –0.06 0.39 –0.71 1.44
13 Electronic Equipment 10.50 4.72 0.55 1.12 0.57 –0.04 3.58
14 Motor Vehicles 6.59 0.79 0.03 0.02 0.05 0.13 5.56
15 Other Trans. Equipment 3.29 0.05 0.31 0.22 0.64 0.06 2.01
16 Misc. Manufacturing 3.66 1.03 0.26 0.31 0.57 –0.10 1.60
17 Food and Tobacco 1.82 1.04 0.07 0.14 0.05 –0.16 0.67
18 Textiles 1.38 0.71 0.04 0.04 0.13 –0.57 1.03
19 Paper and Allied 2.73 0.20 0.06 0.30 0.17 0.13 1.86
20 Printing 4.16 –0.43 0.36 0.46 0.71 0.53 2.52
Table 7 (cont’d)
Contributions
Gross Non-IT University Non-university Intermediate
Industry Output MFP IT Capital Capital Labour Labour Input
21 Chemicals 1.18 0.78 0.13 0.11 0.28 –0.25 0.13
Contributions
Gross Non-IT University Non-university Intermediate
Industry Output MFP IT Capital Capital Labour Labour Input
1 Agriculture 2.73 1.67 0.03 0.10 0.36 –0.08 0.66
2 Non-energy Mining 2.33 1.09 0.18 0.18 0.28 0.01 0.60
3 Coal Mining 1.14 3.40 0.15 –0.20 0.07 –1.13 -1.15
4 Crude Petroleum –1.27 0.20 0.06 –0.75 0.14 –0.28 -0.66
5 Construction –0.65 –1.33 0.06 0.05 0.12 0.38 0.07
6 Wood and Furniture 0.62 –1.11 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.18 1.49
7 Non-metallic 0.46 0.38 0.04 –0.10 –0.02 0.02 0.14
8 Primary Metal 1.00 0.64 0.04 –0.04 –0.04 –0.11 0.52
9 Fabricated Metal 1.60 0.46 0.11 0.03 –0.04 0.24 0.81
10 Machinery 2.97 –0.02 0.30 0.29 0.12 0.35 1.94
11 Computers 16.26 10.22 0.04 –0.24 –0.52 –0.43 7.18
12 Electrical Equipment 2.23 1.03 0.03 –0.47 0.07 –0.25 1.82
13 Electronic Equipment 14.54 6.82 0.51 1.32 0.00 –0.25 6.14
14 Motor Vehicles 3.27 –0.18 0.04 0.11 0.08 0.31 2.92
15 Other Trans. Equipment –3.08 0.70 0.02 –0.05 –0.48 –1.69 –1.57
16 Misc. Manufacturing 1.24 –0.48 0.34 0.14 0.27 –0.55 1.52
17 Food and Tobacco 1.57 0.10 0.07 0.18 0.06 0.08 1.08
18 Textiles 1.13 0.57 0.08 0.04 0.07 –0.33 0.69
19 Paper and Allied 1.23 –0.65 0.08 0.32 0.14 0.08 1.26
20 Printing –0.16 –1.21 0.40 0.09 0.43 –0.01 0.14
Table 8 (cont’d)
Contributions
Gross Non-IT University Non-university Intermediate
Industry Output MFP IT Capital Capital Labour Labour Input
21 Chemicals 1.47 –0.14 0.18 0.45 0.22 –0.08 0.83
Contributions
Gross Non-IT University Non-university Intermediate
Industry Output MFP IT Capital Capital Labour Labour Input
1 Agriculture 3.33 1.94 0.05 0.37 –0.34 0.25 1.07
2 Non-energy Mining 1.80 0.46 0.18 0.55 –0.30 –0.13 1.04
3 Coal Mining 0.80 3.57 0.18 0.08 –0.46 –1.47 –1.10
4 Crude Petroleum 1.10 0.98 0.18 0.39 –0.34 –0.04 –0.06
5 Construction 4.48 –0.95 0.12 0.41 0.18 1.49 3.23
6 Wood and Furniture 3.25 0.86 0.10 0.20 0.19 0.41 1.49
7 Non-metallic 5.60 0.87 0.24 0.64 0.25 0.43 3.17
8 Primary Metal 3.04 2.50 0.08 0.13 0.07 0.00 0.27
9 Fabricated Metal 5.58 1.63 0.20 0.29 0.19 0.34 2.94
10 Machinery 3.88 0.24 0.57 0.28 0.03 0.18 2.58
11 Computers 31.50 16.76 0.29 0.37 –0.09 0.07 14.10
12 Electrical Equipment 3.56 0.94 0.09 –0.35 0.03 –0.12 2.98
13 Electronic Equipment 23.47 11.31 0.87 1.81 0.14 0.38 8.96
14 Motor Vehicles 6.07 0.65 0.06 0.22 0.10 0.08 4.97
15 Other Trans. Equipment 5.99 0.94 0.31 0.10 0.73 –0.20 4.10
16 Misc. Manufacturing 4.18 –0.24 0.53 0.21 0.74 –0.27 3.22
17 Food and Tobacco 1.52 0.01 0.12 0.33 0.03 0.03 1.00
18 Textiles –1.07 2.13 0.11 –0.03 –0.25 –1.23 –1.80
19 Paper and Allied 0.79 1.83 0.11 0.19 –0.04 –0.15 –1.14
20 Printing 1.97 0.56 0.80 0.13 0.09 –0.07 0.46
Table 9 (cont’d)
Contributions
Gross Non-IT University Non-university Intermediate
Industry Output MFP IT Capital Capital Labour Labour Input
21 Chemicals 2.20 0.50 0.26 0.51 0.07 0.04 0.82
Equation (3) shows the relationship between labour productivity growth and
MFP growth, capital deepening, labour quality change and intermediate input
deepening. The results on sources of labour productivity growth in Canadian in-
dustries reported in Tables 10 through 12 for the three periods: 1981-88, 1988-95,
and 1995-2000. Results for the United States are reported in Tables 13 through 15.
IT-producing Industries
The story that is familiar to many is the unprecedented rate of labour productiv-
ity growth in the computer equipment, and communications and electronic
equipment industries in all OECD countries. What may be less well known is
that labour productivity growth in our third IT-producing industry, communica-
tions, is a laggard in the United States but grew rapidly in Canada. Over the past
20 years, the average growth in labour productivity in these three industries was
7.8 percent in Canada and 9.8 percent in the United States. In the second half of
the 1990s, labour productivity in Canadian IT-producing industries increased at
an annual rate of 9.0 percent, compared to 12.8 percent in the United States.
These unprecedented growth rates were mainly due to MFP improvements and
intermediate input deepening. Over the period 1981-2000, the average MFP
growth in the three IT-producing industries in Canada was 2.3 percent per year
while in the United States it was 4.2 percent. The contribution from intermediate
input deepening was also sizable, 3.8 percentage points in Canada and 4.1 per-
centage points in the United States. The contributions from other factors such as
IT capital and university-labour were small. However, if we look across the three
major groups, IT-producing industries in both countries were the largest benefi-
ciaries of capital deepening, especially IT capital deepening.
114
Table 10
Contributions
IT Non-IT University Non-university Intermediate
Capital Capital Labour Quality Labour Quality Input
Industry LP MFP Deepening Deepening Improvement Improvement Intensity
Contributions
Non-IT University Non-university Intermediate
IT Capital Capital Labour Quality Labour Quality Input
Industry LP MFP Deepening Deepening Improvement Improvement Intensity
21 Chemicals 1.99 1.02 0.05 –0.45 0.03 –0.02 1.35
22 Petroleum Refining 4.03 –1.44 0.03 0.09 0.00 0.03 5.33
23 Rubber and Plastics 1.71 0.69 0.09 0.11 –0.01 0.03 0.81
24 Transportation 2.55 1.61 0.08 –0.06 0.07 –0.04 0.88
25 Communications 4.86 2.42 0.72 0.33 0.23 0.08 1.08
26 Electric Utilities 3.02 1.14 0.61 0.10 0.10 0.03 1.04
27 Gas Utilities –1.07 –1.72 0.29 0.41 0.16 –0.04 –0.17
28 Wholesale Trade 4.27 2.80 0.12 0.08 0.27 0.02 0.98
29 Retail Trade 0.94 0.42 0.11 –0.01 0.18 0.05 0.19
30 FIRE 1.12 –1.13 0.37 0.80 0.18 –0.09 1.00
31 Business Services 1.16 –0.91 0.54 0.20 0.60 0.10 0.64
32 Health Services –2.28 –1.34 0.10 –0.90 –0.87 0.53 0.20
33 Education, Private –6.47 –2.99 0.38 –0.03 0.16 –0.31 –3.69
34 Other Services 0.18 –1.18 0.51 0.22 0.19 –0.07 0.51
Industry Group
IT-producing Industries 6.36 2.83 0.44 0.27 0.26 –0.03 2.59
IT-using Industries 1.16 0.01 0.24 0.22 0.28 –0.08 0.49
Non-IT Industries 1.17 0.34 0.10 0.03 0.08 –0.02 0.63
Note: IT-producing industries are computer, electronic (including communication) equipment and communications (services). IT-using industries are
machinery, electrical equipment, printing and publishing, other transportation equipment, miscellaneous manufacturing, wholesale trade, retail
trade, finance, insurance and real estate, and business services. Non-IT industries are the remaining industries.
“LP” and “MFP” are the growth rates of labour productivity and multifactor productivity, respectively.
Table 11
Contributions
Non-IT University Non-university Intermediate
IT Capital Capital Labour Quality Labour Quality Input
Industry LP MFP Deepening Deepening Improvement Improvement Intensity
Contributions
Non-IT University Non-university Intermediate
IT Capital Capital Labour Quality Labour Quality Input
Industry LP MFP Deepening Deepening Improvement Improvement Intensity
21 Chemicals 2.67 0.77 0.12 0.43 0.23 –0.07 1.20
22 Petroleum Refining 3.84 0.52 0.05 –0.04 0.10 –0.02 3.23
23 Rubber and Plastics 3.04 0.92 0.07 0.03 0.14 0.00 1.87
24 Transportation 0.74 0.14 0.08 0.11 0.16 –0.05 0.30
25 Communications 4.44 0.60 1.56 0.90 0.39 –0.15 1.14
26 Electric Utilities 0.41 –0.92 0.18 0.08 0.17 0.03 0.87
27 Gas Utilities –0.45 –0.84 0.22 –0.24 0.22 0.00 0.19
28 Wholesale Trade 1.86 0.53 0.19 0.06 0.45 –0.04 0.66
29 Retail Trade 1.30 –0.06 0.16 0.27 0.30 0.00 0.62
30 FIRE 2.65 0.72 0.32 0.39 0.44 –0.10 0.87
31 Business Services 1.35 –1.37 0.46 0.65 0.89 –0.28 1.00
32 Health Services –1.84 –0.21 0.07 –0.37 –1.04 0.08 -0.38
33 Education, Private –3.15 –2.50 0.14 –0.02 0.64 –0.42 -0.99
34 Other services 0.49 –0.58 0.18 0.09 0.25 –0.02 0.57
Industry Group
IT- producing Industries 8.26 1.39 1.07 0.73 0.41 –0.13 4.80
IT-using Industries 1.83 0.15 0.26 0.31 0.50 –0.13 0.75
Non-IT Industries 1.31 0.20 0.07 0.12 0.14 –0.02 0.80
Note: IT-producing industries are computer, electronic (including communication) equipment and communications (services). IT-using industries are
machinery, electrical equipment, printing and publishing, other transportation equipment, miscellaneous manufacturing, wholesale trade, retail
trade, finance, insurance and real estate, and business services. Non-IT industries are the remaining industries.
“LP” and “MFP” are growth rates of labour productivity and multifactor productivity, respectively.
Table 12
Contributions
Non-IT University Non-university Intermediate
IT Capital Capital Labour Quality Labour Quality Input
Industry LP MFP Deepening Deepening Improvement Improvement Intensity
Contributions
Non-IT University Non-university Intermediate
IT Capital Capital Labour Quality Labour Quality Input
Industry LP MFP Deepening Deepening Improvement Improvement Intensity
21 Chemicals –1.30 0.18 0.10 –0.40 0.05 –0.06 –1.17
22 Petroleum Refining –3.51 –0.05 0.00 –0.11 0.01 0.01 –3.37
23 Rubber and Plastics 1.43 0.29 0.07 –0.19 0.06 0.03 1.17
24 Transportation 1.33 0.39 0.21 0.24 0.05 0.01 0.43
25 Communications 6.18 1.71 2.11 1.07 0.05 0.08 1.15
26 Electric Utilities 0.17 0.80 0.43 –1.62 0.01 0.02 0.53
27 Gas Utilities 3.45 –0.95 0.73 3.14 0.02 0.04 0.48
28 Wholesale Trade 1.59 0.85 0.29 –0.25 0.11 0.03 0.55
29 Retail Trade 4.28 1.86 0.37 0.22 0.12 –0.07 1.77
30 FIRE 3.33 0.96 0.54 –0.04 0.10 0.03 1.74
31 Business Services 2.61 0.15 0.46 0.42 0.04 0.02 1.52
32 Health Services –2.11 –3.78 0.05 –0.45 2.06 –0.29 0.30
33 Education, Private 4.81 4.33 –0.02 –0.32 2.31 –0.08 –1.41
34 Other Services 3.27 0.97 0.27 –0.08 0.13 0.04 1.94
Industry Group
IT-producing Industries 9.02 2.91 1.07 0.86 0.07 0.02 4.08
IT-using Industries 2.33 0.67 0.39 –0.13 0.23 –0.08 1.24
Non-IT Industries 1.86 0.30 0.11 –0.01 0.20 0.06 1.20
Note: IT-producing industries are computer, electronic (including communication) equipment and communications (services). IT-using industries are
machinery, electrical equipment, printing and publishing, other transportation equipment, miscellaneous manufacturing, wholesale trade, retail
trade, finance, insurance and real estate, and business services. Non-IT industries are the remaining industries.
“LP” and “MFP” are growth rates of labour productivity and multifactor productivity, respectively.
Table 13
Contributions
Non-IT University Non-university Intermediate
IT Capital Capital Labour Quality Labour Quality Input
Industry LP MFP Deepening Deepening Improvement Improvement Intensity
Contributions
Non-IT University Non-university Intermediate
IT Capital Capital Labour Quality Labour Quality Input
Industry LP MFP Deepening Deepening Improvement Improvement Intensity
21 Chemicals 1.46 0.78 0.12 0.12 0.29 –0.19 0.35
22 Petroleum Refining 5.00 3.76 0.01 0.19 0.05 –0.03 1.01
23 Rubber and Plastics 3.40 1.69 0.06 –0.06 0.17 –0.04 1.59
24 Transportation 1.31 0.82 0.05 –0.39 0.47 –0.32 0.67
25 Communications 2.91 –0.35 0.95 0.96 0.33 –0.20 1.21
26 Electric Utilities 1.62 –0.60 0.43 0.96 0.17 –0.08 0.73
27 Gas Utilities –3.10 –3.76 0.15 0.34 0.04 –0.02 0.15
28 Wholesale Trade 3.42 1.89 0.69 0.59 0.11 –0.07 0.21
29 Retail Trade 0.81 –0.14 0.21 0.12 0.23 –0.07 0.47
30 FIRE 1.39 –0.75 0.49 0.54 0.28 –0.17 1.00
31 Business Services –1.73 –1.43 1.54 –0.83 0.14 –0.16 –1.00
32 Health Services 0.41 –0.48 0.37 0.22 0.40 –0.08 –0.03
33 Education, Private 0.52 –1.03 0.03 0.02 1.06 –0.39 0.84
34 Other Services 0.37 0.19 0.03 –0.06 0.17 –0.22 0.26
Industry Group
IT-producing Industries 7.96 3.26 0.60 0.69 0.46 –0.31 3.26
IT-using Industries 1.19 –0.08 0.52 0.30 0.31 –0.29 0.44
Non-IT Industries 0.64 0.31 0.11 0.03 0.23 –0.08 0.04
Note: IT-producing industries are computer, electronic (including communication) equipment and communications (services). IT-using industries are
machinery, electrical equipment, printing and publishing, other transportation equipment, miscellaneous manufacturing, wholesale trade, retail
trade, finance, insurance and real estate, and business services. Non-IT industries are the remaining industries.
“LP” and “MFP” are growth rates of labour productivity and multifactor productivity, respectively.
Table 14
Contributions
Non-IT University Non-university Intermediate
IT Capital Capital Labour Quality Labour Quality Input
Industry LP MFP Deepening Deepening Improvement Improvement Intensity
Contributions
Non-IT University Non-university Intermediate
IT Capital Capital Labour Quality Labour Quality Input
Industry LP MFP Deepening Deepening Improvement Improvement Intensity
21 Chemicals 1.60 –0.14 0.18 0.48 0.23 –0.07 0.90
22 Petroleum Refining 1.42 –0.43 0.03 0.22 0.05 –0.01 1.57
23 Rubber and Plastics 2.27 0.88 0.09 0.17 0.12 0.10 0.91
24 Transportation 0.26 0.36 0.12 –0.38 0.04 0.15 –0.02
25 Communications 2.96 0.13 0.84 0.58 0.29 –0.12 1.25
26 Electric Utilities 2.42 0.85 0.18 0.67 0.21 –0.09 0.60
27 Gas Utilities –2.06 –0.90 0.35 0.17 0.08 –0.03 –1.74
28 Wholesale Trade 3.04 0.91 0.72 0.19 0.27 0.03 0.93
29 Retail Trade 0.60 –0.18 0.12 0.26 –0.01 0.11 0.31
30 FIRE 2.48 0.37 0.58 0.56 0.30 –0.11 0.79
31 Business Services 1.35 0.54 0.26 0.01 –0.52 0.27 0.79
32 Health Services –0.72 –1.49 0.19 –0.05 0.10 0.16 0.37
33 Education, Private –0.90 –1.09 0.04 –0.05 0.32 0.01 –0.13
34 Other Services 1.11 –0.53 0.13 0.37 0.21 –0.03 0.96
Industry Group
IT-producing Industries 9.56 3.84 0.75 0.77 0.15 –0.04 4.09
IT-using Industries 1.50 0.25 0.40 0.20 0.11 –0.07 0.61
Non-IT Industries –0.02 –0.35 0.11 –0.04 0.18 0.00 0.09
Note: IT-producing industries are computer, electronic (including communication) equipment and communications (services). IT-using industries are
machinery, electrical equipment, printing and publishing, other transportation equipment, miscellaneous manufacturing, wholesale trade, retail
trade, finance, insurance and real estate, and business services. Non-IT industries are the remaining industries.
“LP” and “MFP” are growth rates of labour productivity and multifactor productivity, respectively.
Table 15
Contributions
Non-IT University Non-university Intermediate
IT Capital Capital Labour Quality Labour Quality Input
Industry LP MFP Deepening Deepening Improvement Improvement Intensity
Contributions
Non-IT University Non-university Intermediate
IT Capital Capital Labour Quality Labour Quality Input
Industry LP MFP Deepening Deepening Improvement Improvement Intensity
21 Chemicals 2.28 0.50 0.26 0.53 0.08 0.04 0.87
22 Petroleum Refining 4.12 –3.71 0.01 0.13 0.00 0.01 7.69
23 Rubber and Plastics 2.70 1.51 0.19 0.45 0.06 –0.02 0.51
24 Transportation 0.50 –0.22 0.35 0.16 0.01 0.02 0.18
25 Communications 1.54 –1.20 1.03 0.17 0.10 –0.11 1.54
26 Electric Utilities 5.22 2.33 0.29 1.27 0.15 –0.12 1.30
27 Gas Utilities 2.85 0.33 0.48 0.94 0.06 –0.06 1.08
28 Wholesale Trade 2.78 0.08 1.32 0.38 0.01 0.03 0.95
29 Retail Trade 2.59 1.31 0.28 0.25 0.17 –0.22 0.80
30 FIRE 2.75 0.01 1.05 0.09 0.12 –0.07 1.55
31 Business Services 1.62 –1.38 1.33 0.11 –0.08 0.03 1.62
32 Health Services 0.93 –1.07 0.50 0.23 0.47 0.00 0.80
33 Education, Private –0.78 –1.55 0.07 –0.01 0.71 –0.07 0.08
34 Other Services 2.20 0.51 0.20 0.13 0.19 –0.22 1.39
Industry Group
IT-producing Industries 12.79 5.88 0.91 0.56 0.02 –0.04 5.45
IT-using Industries 2.59 0.12 0.90 0.17 0.17 –0.13 1.36
Non-IT Industries 1.31 0.11 0.23 0.11 0.15 –0.03 0.74
Note: IT-producing industries are computer, electronic (including communication) equipment and communications (services). IT-using industries are
machinery, electrical equipment, printing and publishing, other transportation equipment, miscellaneous manufacturing, wholesale trade, retail
trade, finance, insurance and real estate, and business services. Non-IT industries are the remaining industries.
“LP” and “MFP” are growth rates of labour productivity and multifactor productivity, respectively.
Sources of Output Growth in Canadian and U.S. Industries
IT-using Industries
In the 1980s, IT using industries, on average, had an equal (in Canada) or higher
(in the United States) labour productivity growth than non-IT industries. How-
ever, the difference between the two groups increased in the 1990s when labour
productivity growth in the IT-using group accelerated. In the United States, la-
bour productivity growth in IT-using industries rose from 1.2 percent per year
during 1981-88 to 1.5 percent (1988-95) and 2.6 percent (1995-2000). In Canada the
pattern is the same, from 1.2 percent during 1981-88 to 1.8 percent (1988-95) and
2.3 percent (1995-2000), but less pronounced.
In the first half of the 1990s, labour productivity in the Canadian IT-using indus-
tries grew at an annual rate of 1.8 percent which was a bit faster than the
1.5 percent in the United States. This difference was mainly due to a greater in-
crease in university labour input intensity in Canada. However, this was re-
versed in the second half of the 1990s when the U.S. IT-using industries saw a
higher productivity growth rate. This was mainly due to an accelerated IT capital
contribution in the United States. Of the 2.6 percent growth rate of labour pro-
ductivity, IT capital deepening contributed 0.9 percentage points, while in Canada
it contributed 0.4 percentage points out of 2.3 percent.
We now turn to the economy as a whole. The growth in value added for the en-
tire business sector, aggregated over the 34 industries, is given in Equations (4)
and (5). This bottom-up result is given in the first row of Table 16. These esti-
mates are generally consistent with those estimates of Statistics Canada that
come from a top-down approach.23 These two estimates are reported in the bot-
tom part of Table 16, under "Addendum". The difference between the two esti-
mates, labelled as reallocation of value added, is relatively small.
127
128
Economic growth accelerated in the second half of the 1990s in both countries.
The acceleration was more pronounced in Canada, from 1.8 percent per year to
5.0 percent, versus 2.4 percent to 4.5 percent for the United States. In the 1980s,
however, the Canadian business sector grew at 3.3 percent compared to 3.6 percent
in the United States.
The more sizable differences are in factor contributions. The largest contributor
in Canada during the boom period (1995-2000) was labour, which accounted for
2.3 out of the 5.0 percentage points, while capital contributed only 1.6 percentage
points. On the other side of the border, capital and labour contributed 2.1 and
1.6 percentage points to the 4.5 percent aggregate growth rate, respectively. The
difference in IT capital contribution is even more pronounced. The extremely
rapid growth in IT investment in the United States produced a 1.2 percentage
point contribution, while, in Canada, it was only 0.6 percentage points. The dif-
ference in labour contribution is entirely due to the higher growth rate of non-
university educated labour in Canada. We should note, however, that the less-
educated labour force expanded greatly during the boom period in both coun-
tries. In sum, the acceleration of value-added growth in Canada in the second
half of the 1990s was mainly driven by non-IT capital and non-university labour
while in the United States, it was mainly due to the accumulation of both IT and
non-IT capital as well as an increase in MFP growth (Figure 1).
129
Ho, Rao & Tang
Figure 1
0.66
MFP
Non-univ. Labour
1.42 0.67
University Labour
Non-IT Capital
IT Capital 0.23
0.22
0.30
0.41
0.56
0.63
0.25
Figure 2
IT-producing
IT-using
Non-IT
2.16 1.56
1.53
1.68
0.76 2.07
0.59 2.39
1.67
1.30 1.17
1.01
0.91
0.29 0.42 0.22 0.45 0.44
Canada United Canada United Canada United
States States States
1981-1988 1988-1995 1995-2000
130
Sources of Output Growth in Canadian and U.S. Industries
Figure 3
MFP
Non-univ. Labour
Quality Improvement
University Labour
0.67
Quality Improvement
Non-IT Capital
Deepening
IT Capital Deepening 0.02
0.66 0.16
0.57
0.13
0.16
-0.07
–0.44
–0.10
Canada United
States
Figure 4
131
Ho, Rao & Tang
Figure 5
Table 18 gives the change in hours worked for the 34 industries during the three
periods. During 1995-2000, Canada has higher employment growth than the
United States in almost all sectors, the main exceptions being communications,
agriculture, construction and FIRE.
132
Sources of Output Growth in Canadian and U.S. Industries
Figure 6
WholesaleTrade
Crude Petroleum
FIRE
Business Services
Retail Trade
Transportation
Motor Vehicles
Communications
Other Services
Construction
Wood and Furniture
Electric Utilities
Health Services
Agriculture
Computers
Chemicals
Non-energy Mining
Electronic Equip.
Rubber and Plastics
Primary Metal
Coal Mining
Printing Canada
Paper and Allied United States
Fabricated Metal
Non-metallic
Misc. Manuf.
Textiles
Gas Utilities
Education, Private
Electrical Equip.
Machinery
Other Trans. Equip.
Food and Tobacco
Petroleum Refining
–0.2 –0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
133
Ho, Rao & Tang
Figure 7
FIRE
Wholesale Trade
Business Services
Communications
Transportation
Motor Vehicles
Retail Trade
Crude Petroleum
Agriculture
Other Services
Health services
Electronic Equip.
Chemicals
Machinery
Electric Utilities
Primary Metal
Paper and Allied
Rubber and Plastics
Computers
Food and Tobacco
Gas Utilities
Other Trans. Equip. Canada
Petroleum Refining United States
Misc. Manuf.
Education, Private
Coal Mining
Non-energy Mining
Wood and Furniture
Fabricated Metal
Textiles
Electrical Equip.
Non-metallic
Printing
Construction
–0.2 –0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
Equation (10) shows how aggregate labour productivity growth is made up of in-
dustry contributions and reallocation of hours. The contributions of three major
industry groups are summarized in Figure 4. The acceleration of aggregate labour
productivity growth in Canada in the second half of the 1990s was driven mainly by
IT-producing industries and to a lesser extent, by IT-using and non-IT industries.
134
Sources of Output Growth in Canadian and U.S. Industries
Figure 8
Business Services
FIRE
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Other Services
Motor Vehicles
Construction
Transportation
Communications
Electronic Equip.
Wood and Furniture
Agriculture
Health Services
Fabricated Metal
Primary Metal
Crude Petroleum
Computers
Chemicals
Paper and Allied
Rubber and Plastics
Education, Private
Other trans. Equip. Canada
Food and Tobacco United States
Non-metallic
Non-energy Mining
Misc. Manuf.
Electrical Equip.
Machinery
Printing
Petroleum Refining
Gas Utilities
Textiles
Electric Utilities
Coal Mining
–0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
In the United States, the acceleration was mainly driven by the increased con-
tribution from non-IT industries. However, most of the increased contribution
was the recovery of the drop in the first half of the 1990s from that in 1980s.
Unlike non-IT industries, the contribution from both IT-producing and IT-using
industries accelerated over those three periods in both countries.
135
136
Sources of Aggregate Labour Productivity Growth in Canada and the United States
In Figures 9 through 11, we give the contributions for all 34 industries. In the
1980s the top five contributors to Canadian aggregate labour productivity
growth were: wholesale trade; transportation; communications; non-energy min-
ing; and motor vehicles. By the late 1990s, the top sectors were FIRE, retail trade,
communications, agriculture and other services. Health services was the big lag-
gard in all periods. The industry picture in the United States is somewhat differ-
ent where the biggest contributors to the productivity revival were: communica-
tion and electronic equipment; computers; FIRE; retail trade; and wholesale
trade.
Figure 9
Wholesale Trade
Transportation
Communications
Non-energy Mining
Motor Vehicles
Electric Utilities
Agriculture
Retail Trade
Wood and Furniture
Primary Metal
Computers
Chemicals
Coal Mining
Business Services
Paper and Allied
Fabricated Metal
Electrical Equip.
Electronic Equip.
Construction
Rubber and Plastics
Textiles
FIRE Canada
Non-metallic
Misc. Manuf. United States
Gas Utilities
Education, Private
Other Trans. Equip.
Machinery
Printing
Food and Tobacco
Other Services
Crude Petroleum
Health Services
Petroleum Refining
–0.2 –0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4
141
Ho, Rao & Tang
Figure 10
FIRE
Crude Petroleum
Communications
Agriculture
Wholesale Trade
Motor Vehicles
Primary Metal
Retail Trade
Chemicals
Paper and Allied
Electronic Equip.
Food and Tobacco
Transportation
Machinery
Textiles
Business Services
Other trans. equip.
Computers
Rubber and Plastics
Petroleum Refining
Electrical Equip.
Misc. Manuf. Canada
Fabricated Metal
Wood and Furniture United States
Coal Mining
Non-energy Mining
Non-metallic
Gas Utilities
Education, private
Electric Utilities
Other Services
Printing
Construction
Health Services
–0.3 –0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
Aggregate MFP growth accelerated in both countries in the latter half of the
1990s. In Canada, it increased from 0.5 percent per year during 1988-95 and
1.1 percent during 1995-2000. In the United States, it increased from 0.1 to
0.8 percent.24
142
Sources of Output Growth in Canadian and U.S. Industries
Figure 11
FIRE
Retail Trade
Communications
Agriculture
Other Services
Motor Vehicles
Business Services
Electronic Equip.
Wholesale Trade
Transportation
Computers
Primary Metal
Wood and Furniture
Paper and Allied
Construction
Non-metallic
Crude Petroleum
Gas Utilities
Fabricated Metal
Education, Private
Electrical Equip.
Coal Mining Canada
Other trans. Equip.
Misc. Manuf.
United States
Rubber and Plastics
Chemicals
Petroleum Refining
Electric Utilities
Textiles
Food and Tobacco
Non-energy Mining
Printing
Machinery
Health Services
–0.2 –0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
143
144
Figure 12
Wholesale Trade
Transportation
Agriculture
Communications
Wood and Furniture
Motor Vehicles
Non-energy Mining
Computers
Primary Metal
Chemicals
Electric Utilities
Retail Trade
Crude Petroleum
Coal Mining
Fabricated Metal
Non-metallic
Rubber and Plastics
Electronic Equip.
Construction
Electrical Equip.
Textiles
Misc. Manuf. Canada
Machinery United States
Education, Private
Gas Utilities
Paper and Allied
Printing
Other Trans. Equip.
Food and Tobacco
Health Services
Business Services
Petroleum Refining
Other Services
FIRE
–0.3 –0.2 –0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3
In Canada, the aggregate MFP growth in the latter half of the 1990s was mainly
due to IT-using and non-IT industries (76.6 percent), while in the United States
IT-producing industries contributed 0.6 percentage points of 0.8 percent growth.
The larger contributions from IT-using and non-IT industries in Canada were
due to their larger Domar weights, not to their higher growth rates.25 On the
other hand, the small Domar weight of 0.08 for IT-producing industries multi-
plied by their high MFP growth rates (2.9 percent per year on average) results in
a very small contribution.
146
Sources of Output Growth in Canadian and U.S. Industries
Figure 13
FIRE
Agriculture
Primary Metal
Motor Vehicles
Crude Petroleum
Paper and Allied
Wholesale Trade
Electronic Equip.
Chemicals
Machinery
Food and Tobacco
Communications
Textiles
Computers
Other Trans. Equip.
Rubber and Plastics
Transportation
Petroleum Refining
Non-energy Mining
Coal Mining
Misc. Manuf. Canada
Fabricated Metal
Electrical Equip. United States
Gas Utilities
Education, Private
Retail Trade
Non-metallic
Health Services
Wood and Furniture
Electric Utilities
Printing
Other Services
Business Services
Construction
-0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2
For the United States, however, the larger contribution from IT-producing indus-
tries was due to the extraordinary MFP growth (5.9 percent per year on average).
The MFP growth was a mere 0.1 percent in both IT-using and non-IT industries.
147
Ho, Rao & Tang
Figure 14
FIRE
Retail Trade
Motor Vehicles
Other Services
Agriculture
Electronic Equip.
Wholesale Trade
Communications
Wood and Furniture
Computers
Primary Metal
Transportation
Electric Utilities
Business Services
Construction
Non-metallic
Fabricated Metal
Paper and Allied
Education, Private
Chemicals
Coal Mining
Misc. Manuf. Canada
Rubber and Plastics United States
Electrical Equip.
Petroleum Refining
Gas Utilities
Textiles
Other trans. Equip.
Non-energy Mining
Machinery
Printing
Food and Tobacco
Crude Petroleum
Health Services
–0.3 –0.2 –0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4
Turning to the detailed industry contributions in Figures 12 through 14, the big-
gest contributors to Canadian business MFP growth in the 1980s were: wholesale
trade; transportation; agriculture; communications; and wood and furniture. By
the latter half of the 1990s, they were FIRE, retail trade, motor vehicles, other
services and agriculture. On the other hand, the biggest contributors to the MFP
growth revival in the United States were: communication and electronic equip-
ment; computers; retail trade; agriculture; and electric utilities.
148
Sources of Output Growth in Canadian and U.S. Industries
Conclusions
The acceleration of growth in real value-added in the United States in the latter
half of the 1990s was largely due to the accumulation of IT capital and the in-
creased use of university-trained labour. On the other hand, in Canada, accumu-
lation of non-IT capital and the increased use of non-university labour were re-
sponsible for the resurgence of value-added growth in the business sector. The
growth in value added in the United States in the second half of the 1990s was
more concentrated in IT-producing industries while in Canada all the three ma-
jor industry groups contributed to the growth revival.
The IT capital was the driving force behind the revival of labour productivity
growth in the United States and its impact was widespread across many indus-
tries. On the other hand, IT capital made only a small contribution to the produc-
tivity growth resurgence in Canada. Close to 70 percent of labour productivity
growth in the United States in the second half of the 1990s was due to IT-
producing and IT-using industries. They accounted for only about 60 percent of
the business sector productivity growth in Canada. In addition, the contribution
of IT-producing industries in Canada was significantly smaller than in the
United States.
149
Ho, Rao & Tang
Endnotes
1 The share of hours worked by workers with at least a university degree in Canada
increased from 11 percent in 1990 to 16 percent in 2000. In the United States, it in-
creased from 24 to 27 percent.
2 See Harchaoui et al. (2002), Rao and Tang (2001), Crawford (2002), and Robidoux
and Wong (2003) for Canada, and Jorgenson, Ho, and Stiroh (2002) and Stiroh
(2002) for the United States.
4 For the purpose of policy analysis, in this study, we group communication services
with IT-producing industries, which is consistent with the OECD definition.
5 Harchaoui, Tarkhani, and Khanam (2004) and Gu and Wang (2004) in this volume
focus on the aggregate and detailed Canadian industries, respectively.
6 There have been a number of significant developments since those earlier studies.
First, software purchases are now treated as investments, as final demand rather
than as intermediate input in the previous system. The new treatment significantly
increases output and capital stock in terms of both levels and growth rates. Second,
the earlier work only covers the period 1961-95, before the dramatic growth resur-
gence in the second half of the 1990s that is captured here.
7 We define gross output as sales plus changes in the inventories, the output of all
firms in the industry. This is different from the sectoral output concept used by the
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in their productivity estimates, where transactions
within an industry [the diagonal elements of the input/output (IO) matrix] are ex-
cluded. Statistics Canada produces estimates using gross output, value added and
the sectoral output concept.
8 As many have pointed out, this MFP growth term is a residual that captures a
variety of other factors, including economies of scale, unaccounted for inputs (such
as managerial talent and organizational structure), and measurement errors (in
both output and inputs).
9 If Equation (3) only used total labour instead of university and non-university,
then li = Li / Hi is simply the index of compositional change (or labour quality in-
dex in the Jorgenson terminology). That is, labour productivity change is MFP
BA
change plus input deepening plus labour quality change. Here, li and liNBA
represents the combination of changes in the composition of university hours,
150
Sources of Output Growth in Canadian and U.S. Industries
11 In the official estimates of Statistics Canada, gender is not used as a separate classi-
fication strata and therefore the estimates produced here will differ from those in
Gu et al. (2003). Gender has been used for this project for purposes of compatibility
to the Jorgenson database.
12 Here we consider only the private business sector for our 34 industries. Unlike
Jorgenson, Ho, and Stiroh (2002), we do not include the government and house-
hold sectors.
13 This is unlike Jorgenson, Gollop, and Fraumeni (1987) which defines aggregate V
as a simple linear sum of Vi's.
14 This differs from the treatment in Jorgenson, Ho, and Stiroh (2002) which con-
structs aggregate inputs ignoring the industry dimension. That approach generates
a reallocation term in the decomposition of aggregate MFP. Our treatment in Equa-
tion (9) is dictated by the fact that this project did not have detailed capital data by
asset types. Statistics Canada provided the Capital Input Series Kit already aggre-
gated over asset types.
15 The P-level has a total of 123 industries. The study presented in this chapter ex-
cludes owner-occupied dwellings (P116), though they are included in the chapter
by Harchaoui, Tarkhani, and Khanam in this volume. It should be noted that the
data use the final IO tables up until 1997 that are constructed on an Standard In-
dustrial Classification (SIC) basis and a set of tables for the period 1997 to 2000 that
were constructed just for this project on an SIC basis (the official tables for the lat-
ter period are produced only for the new NAICS) classification system.
17 For instance, the fall in computer prices in European countries in the early 1990s
ranged from 10 to 47 percent (Triplett, 2001, p.4).
151
Ho, Rao & Tang
19 These depreciation rates have been used to derive the official MFP estimates for the
business sector in Canada.
20 Note, however, that the educational classification is not entirely consistent over
time in both countries. The educational classification in the Labour Force Survey
changed in 1990 in Canada (Gu and Maynard, 2001). A similar change also took place
in the United States in the Current Population Survey in 1992 and in the Census of
Population in 1990 (Jorgenson, Ho, and Stiroh, 2002).
21 To remind the reader, the tables should be read in the following manner. The gross
output column shows the growth rates, the five columns of input contributions in-
dicate the growth rates multiplied by the share weights, and the MFP column pro-
vides growth rates.
22 Output for a group is aggregated over industry outputs of the group using a trans-
log index. Inputs are aggregated in the same fashion.
23 The bottom-up approach refers to aggregating from the industry level. This is in
contrast with the top-down approach that refers to aggregation directly over com-
modity level with no industry dimension. Statistics Canada produces estimates us-
ing both approaches.
24 The aggregate MFP estimate of 1.1 in the second half of the 1990s for Canada was
the same as the official estimate (Table 383-0001 in CANSIM). The estimate of 0.8 for
the United States is similar to the estimate of private sector in Jorgenson, Ho, and
Stiroh (2002) although that has a larger coverage. It is lower than the official estimate
152
Sources of Output Growth in Canadian and U.S. Industries
of 1.3 from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS News Release, April 8, 2003).
The BLS measure of output and capital and labour inputs is different from ours
(for the BLS method, see http://www.bls.gov/news.release/prod3.tn.htm). How-
ever, as noted in the section entitled Data and Measurement Issues, the relative MFP
growth rates in the two countries should not be used as scoreboards, given several
differences in the way changes in capital services are measured in the two coun-
tries. The measures here however are useful for examining whether changes in
trends are common to the two countries.
Acknowledgments
WE WISH TO THANK DALE W. JORGENSON for his valuable guidance throughout the
project. We are grateful to Renée St-Jacques for her support and encourage-
ment, and to Michael Denny, Erwin Diewert, Pierre Duguay, Tarek Harchaoui,
Alice Nakamura, and Andrew Sharpe for their useful comments and sugges-
tions. We appreciate Joanne Fleming’s help with editing the draft paper. We
thank John Baldwin and his team members, at Statistics Canada, for providing
office facilities and giving access to data for this project. Wulong Gu provided the
labour data for Canada. The U.S. accounts were constructed with Kevin Stiroh and
Jon Samuels. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessar-
ily reflect those of Industry Canada.
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Sources of Output Growth in Canadian and U.S. Industries
Appendix A
Measuring Capital Input and Labour Input
Capital Input
Using investment data, capital stock for type j asset in industry i is constructed
by the use of the perpetual inventory method,
(A1) Zi , j ,t − Zi , j ,t − 1 = I i , j ,t − δ j Zi , j ,t − 1
where Zi ,j ,t and Ii ,j ,t are capital stock and new investment of asset type j in in-
dustry i in year t. δj is the depreciation rate of asset type j, reflecting the rate of
decline in the efficiency of the capital stock. It is assumed that the depreciation
rate of an asset is constant over time and identical for all industries.
Capital stocks of different assets are then aggregated into capital input, which
accounts for difference in quality or marginal productivity of those assets. To
study the relative importance of IT capital and non-IT capital, this paper divides
assets into two groups. The IT group includes computer hardware, software, and
communication equipment, while the non-IT group includes other machinery
and equipment, structures, inventories, and land.
(A2) ∆ ln K iIT = ∑v
m∈IT
IT , i , m ∆ ln Zi , m .
157
Ho, Rao & Tang
where vIT , i ,m is the two-period average capital income share of type m IT asset in
total IT capital income, and ∑v
m∈IT
IT , i , m =1.
Similarly, the quantity index of non-IT capital input is defined as a translog ag-
gregate of the different types of non-IT capital stocks
(A3) ∆ ln K iNIT = ∑
m∈NIT
vNIT , i , m ∆ ln Zi , m .
where vNIT , i , m is the two-period average capital income share of type m non-IT
asset in total non-IT capital income, and ∑
m∈NIT
vNIT , i , m = 1 .
The capital income for each asset is estimated by multiplying its rental price by
its capital stock. The rental prices are estimated based on the widely used capital
user cost formula, originally developed by Christensen and Jorgenson (1969),
and recently used by Jorgenson and Stiroh (2000) and Jorgenson and Yun (2001).
The user cost for a specific asset in each industry accounts for investment tax
credits, capital consumption allowances, the statutory tax rate, property taxes,
debt/equity financing, and personal taxes. It is estimated by assuming that the
ex-post actual rate of return on each asset is equal across all assets in each indus-
try. For details of the tax parameters and estimation, see Jorgenson and Yun, and
Jorgenson, Ho and Stiroh (2002) for the United States, and Harchaoui and Tarkhani
(2003) for Canada.
Labour Input
The methodology for estimating labour inputs used in the present study was
introduced by Jorgenson and Griliches (1995), and has been widely used in the
study of sources of economic or productivity growth.
158
Sources of Output Growth in Canadian and U.S. Industries
compensation for each type of worker. The quantity index of university labour
input is defined as a translog aggregate of the different types of hours worked
(A4) ∆ ln LBA
i = ∑v
m∈BA
BA , i , m ∆ ln H i , m .
(A5) ∆ ln LNBA
i = ∑
m∈NBA
vNBA , i ,m ∆ ln H i , m .
159
Ho, Rao & Tang
Appendix B
Current Practices in Estimating IT Price Indexes in
Canada and the United States
The database developed by Jorgenson and his research team for productivity
analysis is mainly based on data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
(BEA). Thus, our discussion for the United States will be centered on the meth-
odologies used by the BEA. Table B1 summarizes techniques used in estimating
the prices of IT products in the two countries.
Table B1
160
Sources of Output Growth in Canadian and U.S. Industries
Computers
United States
− The BEA composite price indexes are used for most components of the
computers and peripheral equipment price index for the period 1972-92.
The composite index uses both observed prices and prices imputed from
a regression equation to construct a price index. The composite price in-
dex combines the strengths of the match-model and hedonic methods.
The regression equation or hedonic function, is used to estimate prices of
characteristics (speed, memory, etc.).
− The BEA chained match-model price indexes are used for constructing
the price indexes for PC’s in select time periods, beginning with 1982.
− The BEA regression price index is used for estimating the price index for
tape drives for the period of 1972-83. The regression index is formed
from the coefficients for the year dummies in a hedonic function that re-
lates prices paid for tape drives to quality characteristics such as speed
and memory size.
161
Ho, Rao & Tang
Canada1
− The Canadian price index incorporates some prices from the U.S. series,
as well as some from Canada. From 1981 onward, Canada has used a
weighted average of the BEA series for computers, direct access storage
drives, printers, and displays, using weights based on Canadian produc-
tion levels.
− The BEA tape drive index was not used because the output of this prod-
uct is small in Canada.
− The BEA series were incorporated into the Canadian price index through
1992, at which point, price indexes for microcomputers and printers
were based on prices collected in Canada and adjusted with a hedonic
procedure. The BEA series were adjusted for exchange rate variations in
order to express the indexes in terms of Canadian prices.
Telecommunication Equipment
United States
The BEA price index for telecommunication equipment is based on the estimate
from the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) (BEA, 2001b). The FRB estimate is based
on a mixed hedonic regression and match model techniques (Doms and Forman,
2001). Hedonic regressions were used to estimate price changes for the two larg-
est classes of LAN equipment, routers and switches. A match model was used
for LAN cards and the prices for hubs were inferred by using an economic rela-
tionship to switches.
162
Sources of Output Growth in Canadian and U.S. Industries
Canada
Canada produces a price series for telephone switching equipment based upon
purchased prices collected from Canadian telephone companies. The match
model is used.
Semiconductors
Canada does not collect prices for semiconductors, but rather uses BLS price in-
dexes for several products within the semiconductor industry to proxy deflators
for integrated circuits and semiconductors and parts. The BLS producer price
indexes for semiconductors are constructed using a match model technique. The
producer price indexes are adjusted by Statistics Canada for exchange rate varia-
tions.
Software
United States
The BEA price index for pre-packaged software has several parts: the BEA price
index for computers and peripherals in private fixed investment (1981-84); an
average of the BEA hedonic price index and a match-model price index for
spreadsheets and word-processors (1985-93); the BEA match-model price index
(bias-corrected) for selected pre-packaged software (1994-97); and the U.S. Bureau
of Labor Statistics (BLS) producer price index (bias corrected) for pre-packaged
application software (1988 onwards).
Canada
The Canadian price index for pre-packaged software is an adjusted BEA price
index (Jackson, 2001). The adjusted BEA price index is an average of the BEA
price index, weighted by the domestic share of supply to the domestic market,
and an exchange-rate adjusted BEA price index, weighted by the import share of
supply to the domestic market. For the exchange-rate adjusted BEA price index,
163
Ho, Rao & Tang
it is assumed that exchange rate fluctuations are fully passed through to the do-
mestic price of imported software.
The BEA price index for own-account software is a reflection of increase in the
median price of a business employee in the U.S. economy, including the cost of
salary, and all additional compensations and overhead (McKinsey Global Insti-
tute, 2001).2
The Canadian price index for own-account software is also estimated based on
the wage bill for computer programmers and system analysts. It is a fixed-
weighted average of an index of the average hourly earnings for programmers
and system analysts and an index of the costs of non-labour inputs to the com-
puter services industry. The weights are fixed to about two-thirds and one-third,
respectively.
For both the BEA and Canada, the price index for custom-design software is
derived as a weighted average of the changes in the price indexes for pre-
packaged software and own-account software. The weights are fixed to one quar-
ter and three quarters, respectively.
2 Implicitly, it assumes that there is no productivity gain for persons who engage in the
software development.
164
Sources of Output Growth in Canadian and U.S. Industries
Table B2
Communication
Computers Equipment Software
Canada United States Canada United States Canada United States
1981-88 –17.70 –13.38 3.91 2.67 –1.23 0.88
1988-95 –14.58 –12.15 –2.45 –0.39 –4.58 –1.54
1995-2000 –18.29 –25.23 –1.39 –2.96 –1.12 –0.86
1981-2000 –16.71 –16.04 0.17 0.06 –2.44 –0.47
165
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