1330 41406 3 10 20210401

International Journal of Advanced Research in Economics and Finance
e-ISSN: 2682-812X | Vol. 3, No. 1, 21-31, 2021

http://myjms.mohe.gov.my/index.php/ijaref
Analysis of Bankruptcy Prediction Using Altman Z-Score,

Springate Grover, Zmijewski and Zavgren in Retail Trade
Sub Sectors Registered in Indonesia Stock Exchange
Period 2015-2019
Nava Dwi Indriyanti1*, Tieka Trikartika Gustyana1
1
Management of Business in Telecommunication and Informatics, Telkom University, Bandung, Indonesia
*Corresponding Author: navaadwi@telkomuniversity.ac.id
Accepted: 15 February 2021 | Published: 1 March 2021

_________________________________________________________________________________________
Abstract: Retail trade has an important role in the growth of the national economy. Retail
trade not only ensures a reciprocal relationship between producers and consumers, the
absorption of labor but plays a role in marketing domestic products. However, with the
development of globalization, the emergence of online shopping applications makes
competition increasingly tight, resulting in decreased purchasing power of customers in the
company resulting in the company's sales decline in recent years which eventually decided to
roll out and some companies suffered losses that could result in bankruptcy. The study aims to
find out the bankruptcy predictions of retail trading companies as well as find out the most
accurate models of Altman Z-Score, Springate, Grover, Zmijewski, and Zavgren. The data used
in this study is secondary data in the form of financial statements of each retail trading
company in the period 2015-2019. The results of this study show that the Springate model is
the most accurate model compared to the Altman Z-Score, Grover, Zmijewski, and Zavgren
models.
Keywords: Retail trade, Bankruptcy, Altman Z-Score, Springate, Grover, Zmijewski, and
Zavrgen
___________________________________________________________________________
1. Introduction
The trade sector is one of the sectors that play an important role as a driver of national economic
development (Tobing, 2019). One of the sub-sectors of trade is retail trade. The role given by
the retail trade sub-sector is to contribute to the Indonesian economy. According to the
statistical data of gross domestic product contribution for the retail trade sub-sector in the
period 2015 as of 2.50%, in 2016 by 4.00%, in 2017 as much as 4.50% which shows an
increasing trend. But it decreased in 2017 to 4.80% and in 2019 to 4.20% (BPS, 2019).
The contribution made by the retail trade sub-sector was slow due to limited domestic
consumption (Bank Indonesia, 2017). The emergence of online shopping applications caused
a lack of buyers so experienced sales pressure because experiencing a lot of losses caused some
companies to decide to roll out (Abrari, 2019). In 2017 there were several companies that
announced to close outlets namely 7 eleven, Mitra Adiperkasa, and Matahari Department Store,
Hypermant, and Ramayana by closing 6 outlets because of the lack of buyers. In 2018 Glob
Teleshop company closed a number of outlets because it did not reach the specified target, also
HERO company closed 26 outlets, and 632 employees were affected by the closure of these
outlets. Not stopping, in 2019 Ace Hardware company closed both outlets due to the poor
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e-ISSN: 2682-812X | Vol. 3, No. 1, 21-31, 2021
performance of outlets judging by sales growth. This can be seen in figure 1 which shows the
average sales growth of the retail trade sub-sector, as follows:
12.00%
10.00%
8.00%
6.00%
4.00%
2.00%
0.00%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Figure 1: Average Annual Sales of Retail Trade Sub-sector for 2015-2019

Source: Processed Data from tradingeconomics.com (2015-2019)
The decline in sales of retail trading companies in recent years has impacted companies in the
trade sector. As sales continue to decline, the company will experience financial difficulties so
it cannot afford to pay its obligations and go into bankruptcy. Bankruptcy is the liquidation of
the company or the closure of the company due to failure to run the company's operations to
make a profit (Effendi, 2018).
2. Literature Review
2.1 Financial Statements

Financial Statements are things that can provide a visual representation of a company that can
be used to describe the business to employees of the company, investors, or others outside the
company (Keown et al, 2018:72).
2.2 Financial Report Analysis

The financial report analysis is an analysis conducted to be able to see the financial condition
of a company, how the company's past, current, and future predictions can be used for decision
making by interested parties (Sujarweni, 2017:35).
2.3 Financial Ratio Analysis

Financial ratio analysis is a figure obtained from the comparison of one financial report post
with another financial statement post that has a relevant and significant relationship (Harahap,
2015:297).
2.4 Bankruptcy
Bankruptcy is a condition in which the company can no longer afford to pay off its obligations.
Conditions that do not appear in a company, but with early indications can be recognized first
if the financial statements can be analyzed carefully (Husein &Pambekti, 2015).
2.5 Bankruptcy Prediction Model
2.5.1 Model of Altman Z-Score

Altman Z-Score presented by Edward I Altman in his research using five financial ratios in
predicting corporate bankruptcy with Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) as an appropriate
statistic technique (Purnomo, 2019). Z-Score is the latest and very flexible formula because it
can be used for various types of corporate business fields, both public and not, and suitable for
use in developing countries. The formula for calculating the Altman Z-Score model is:
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𝑍 " = 3, 25 + 6,56𝑋1 + 3,26𝑋2 + 6,72𝑋3 + 1,05𝑋4

"
𝑍 = bankruptcy index
𝑋1 = working capital / total assets
𝑋2 = retained earnings / total assets
𝑋3 = profit before interest and tax / total assets
𝑋4 = common stock market value and preferred stock /total book value of debt
The cut-off figures obtained from the Z” can provide an explanation for the company in the
future will fail or not. With the division into three categories, namely:
a. If the value of Z” < 1,1 then the company is classified as bankrupt (Bankrupt
Area)
b. If the value of 1,1 < Z” < 2,6 then the company is classified as Grey Area (can not
be determined by the company in good health or facing bankruptcy).
c. If the value of Z” > 2,6 then the company is classified as insolvent (Healthy Area).
2.5.2 Model of Springate

The Springate model is a ratio model that uses multiple discrimination analysis or MDA to
have four of the 19 popular financial ratios. The four ratios chosen are ratios that can distinguish
between companies that are in bankruptcy and those that do not have bankruptcy (Yoewono,
2018). The formula for calculating the Springate model is:
𝑆 = 1,03𝑋1 + 3,07𝑋2 + 0,66𝑋3 + 0,4𝑋4

Description:
S = bankruptcy index
𝑋2 = net income before interest and tax / total assets
𝑋3 = net profit before tax / current liabilities
𝑋4 = sales / total assets
Springate model has a cut off value of 0.862, so if the end result < 0.862 then the company falls
into the category of bankrupt, but if the > 0.862 then the company falls into the healthy
category.
2.5.3 Model of Grover

Grover's model is a model used to predict bankruptcy designed and to reassess the Altman Z-
Score model by adding 13 new financial ratios (Saragih et al., 2020). The formula for
calculating Grover model is:
G = 1,605𝑋1 + 3,404𝑋2 − 0,016𝑅𝑂𝐴 + 0,057

Description:
G = bankruptcy index
𝑋2 = profit before interest and tax / total assets
ROA = net income / total assets
Grover's model categorized the company as bankrupt with a Z score of < -0.02, and the
company that falls into the healthy category is with a Z score of > 0.01.
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2.5.4 Model of Zmijewski
The Zmijewski model is a study that uses liquidity ratio analysis, leverage, and measuring the
company's performance. Zmijewski uses the F-test index of group ratio rate of return, liquidity,
return on return, fixed payment coverage, trend, company size, and volatility of stock return to
predict bankruptcy (Fadrul &Ridiawati, 2020). Here is the formula of the Zmijewski model:
𝑋 = −4,3 − 4,5𝑋1 + 5,7𝑋2 + 0,004𝑋3

Description:
X = bankruptcy index
𝑋1 = net income / total assets
𝑋2 = leverage (total debit)
𝑋3 = liquidity (current assets / current liabilities)
If a company obtains an X score of > 0 in the calculation of this bankruptcy prediction model
then the company is predicted to potentially go into bankruptcy. Conversely, if a company
obtains an X score of < 0 then the company is predicted not to go bankrupt.
2.5.5 Model of Zavgren

In 1985 Zavgren introduced a model based on non-parametric statistical analysis as a logit.
Zavgren has steps in his calculation using seven financial ratios that each of these ratios
multiplied by a special coefficient, which then calculates the value of Y with the formula:
𝑌 = 0,23883 − 0,108(𝐼𝑁𝑉 ) − 1,583(𝑅𝐸𝐶 ) − 10,78(𝐶𝐴𝑆𝐻) + 3,074(𝑄𝑈𝐼𝐶𝐾)
+ 0,486(𝑅𝑂𝐼 ) − 4,35(𝐷𝐸𝐵𝑇) + 0,11(𝑇𝑈𝑅𝑁)
Description:
Y = sum of coefficients x ratio
INV = inventory / sales
REC = receivables / inventory
CASH = cash / total assets
QUICK = current assets / current debt
ROI = net operating profit / (total assets – current debt)
DEBT = long-term debt / (total assets – current debt)
TURN = sales / (working capital + fixed assets)
Next calculate the probability of bankruptcy, with the formula:
1
𝑃𝑖 =
1 + 𝑒𝑦
Description:
Pi = probability of bankruptcy
e = natural number = 2.71828
y = Zavgren model formula
Further measuring with statistical tools, namely standard deviation. After obtaining the results
of the logit model, then from the logit method conducted advanced testing with statistics Y =
sum of coefficients x ratio
INV = inventory / sales
REC = receivables / inventory
CASH = cash / total assets
QUICK = current assets / current debt
ROI = net operating profit / (total assets – current debt)
DEBT = long-term debt / (total assets – current debt)
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TURN = sales / (working capital + fixed assets)

Next calculate the probability of bankruptcy, with the formula:because the logit model does
not have a cut-off point to get a high level of certainty, with the formula:
(𝑥𝑖 − 𝑥)
𝑆𝐷 = √Σ
𝑛−1
Description:
SD = standard deviation (for n ≤ 30)
xi = 1st data
𝑥 = industry average
n = number of samples
Next calculates the interval range with a confidence level of 95% (α=0.05). With interval range
formulas:
𝑡𝛼 𝑠𝑑
𝑥−2 < 𝜇 < +𝑡 𝛼 /2
𝑠𝑑 √𝑛
√ 𝑛
Description:
𝑥 = industry average
t = coefficient of t-table
 = alpha coefficient
sd = industry average
n = number of samples
The lower limit of the interval range determines the maximum score for the determinant of a
company is said to have a poor financial performance so that it can be indicated to be in
bankruptcy. The interval range limit determines at a minimum for a company is said to have a
healthy financial performance. Meanwhile, scores between the two interval range limits fall
into the vulnerable category or in difficult circumstances.
3. Methodology
This study uses secondary data, namely the financial statements of retail trade sub-sector
companies. The financial statements were obtained from the official website of the Indonesia
Stock Exchange (www.idx.co.id) and taken over five periods, namely the period 2015-2019 at
each company. There are 17 companies used as research samples and they have been selected
based on pre-defined criteria. There are several things that must be done to analyze the data,
which first collects the financial statements of each retail trading company which then uses
descriptive analysis to describe the calculation results of retail trading companies. The study
used the Altman Z-Score, Grover, Springate, Zmijewski, and Zavgren model techniques to
analyze bankruptcy predictions in retail sub-sector companies. After knowing the results of
Altman Z-Score, Springate, Grover, Zmijewski, and Zavgren calculations, the values are
grouped by cut off to find out which companies fall into the category of bankrupt, grey, and
non-bankrupt areas that are subsequently compared to negative earnings. To find out the
accuracy level and error type on the five models, then use the following formula:
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑂𝑓 𝐶𝑜𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝑃𝑟𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠

𝐴𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑦 𝐿𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑙 = 𝑥100%
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑂𝑓 𝑆𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒𝑠
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑂𝑓 𝐼𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝑃𝑟𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠
𝑇𝑦𝑝𝑒 𝐸𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟 = 𝑥 100%
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑂𝑓 𝑆𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒𝑠
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This measurement of accuracy aims to find out which of the five models is the most accurate
model in predicting bankruptcy in retail trade sub-sector companies for the period 2015-2019.
4. Result
4.1 Result of Altman Z-Score Model
Table 1 Model Altman Z-Score Result of Company Period 2015-2019
No Company Code 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
1 ACES
2 AMRT
3 CSAP
4 ECII
5 ERAA
6 GLOB
7 HERO
8 KOIN
9 LPPF
10 MAPI
11 MIDI
12 MPPA
13 MKNT
14 RALS
15 RANC
16 TRIO
17 SONA
Sources: Data processed, 2021
Description:
: Bankrupt
: Grey Area
: No Bankrupt
The predicted results with Altman Z”-Score model of seventeen companies there are two
companies that are predicted to go into bankruptcy over the last five years, namely GLOB, and
TRIO. Furthermore, the company that is predicted to go into bankruptcy in 2017 is the MPPA
company. the company is predicted to be in a grey area condition that is MPPA company in
2018. Meanwhile, ACES, ECII, LPPF, MAPI, MKNT, RALS, and SONA companies have not
experienced bankruptcy in the past five years.
4.2 Result of Springate Model
Table 2: Springate Model Result of the Company Period 2015-2019

No Company Code 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
1 ACES
2 AMRT
3 CSAP
4 ECII
5 ERAA
6 GLOB
7 HERO
8 KOIN
9 LPPF
10 MAPI
11 MIDI
12 MPPA
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13 MKNT
14 RALS
15 RANC
16 TRIO
17 SONA
Description:
: Bankrupt
: No Bankrupt
The predicted results with Springate model of seventeen companies there are three companies
that are predicted to go into bankruptcy over the last five years, namely GLOB, HERO, and
TRIO. Furthermore, the company that is predicted to go into bankruptcy for the last three years
is the MPPA company. As well as ECII companies are predicted to go into bankruptcy in 2016
and 2019. Meanwhile, ACES, AMRT, ERAA, KOIN, LPPF, MAPI, MIDI, MKNT, RALS,
RANC, and SONA companies have not experienced bankruptcy in the past five years.
4.3 Result of Grover Model

Table 3: Grover Model Prediction Results for the Company Period 2015-2019
No Company Code 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
1 ACES
2 AMRT
3 CSAP
4 ECII
5 ERAA
6 GLOB
7 HERO
8 KOIN
9 LPPF
10 MAPI
11 MIDI
12 MPPA
13 MKNT
14 RALS
15 RANC
16 TRIO
17 SONA
Description:
: Bankrupt
: No Bankrupt
Predictions using Grover's model show that MIDI companies went into bankruptcy for two
years in 2017 and 2018. MPPA companies also experienced bankruptcy conditions for the last
three years, namely in 2017, 2018, and 2019. As well as GLOB and TRIO companies suffered
bankruptcy conditions for five years in a row. While there are thirteen companies that are
predicted not to experience bankruptcy over the last five years, namely ACES, AMRT, CSAP,
ECII, ERAA, HERO, KOIN, LPPF, MAPI, MKNT, RALS, RANC, and RANC.
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4.4 Result of Model Zmijewski

Table 4: Zmijewski Companywide Prediction Results For Period 2015-2019
No Company Code 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
1 ACES
2 AMRT
3 CSAP
4 ECII
5 ERAA
6 GLOB
7 HERO
8 KOIN
9 LPPF
10 MAPI
11 MIDI
12 MPPA
13 MKNT
14 RALS
15 RANC
16 TRIO
17 SONA
Description:
: Bankrupt
: No Bankrupt
The predicted results using the Zmijewski model, out of seventeen companies there are five
companies that are predicted to go into bankruptcy, namely MIDI companies in 2017 and 2018,
MPPA companies for the last three years, and GLOB, KOIN, and TRIO are predicted to go
into bankruptcy for the last five years. While 12 companies are in the category of not bankrupt
or safe from bankruptcy, namely ACES, AMRT, CSAP, ECII, ERAA, HERO, LPPF, MAPI,
MKNT, RALS, RANC, and SONA.
4.5 Result of Model Zavgren

Table 5: Zavgren Model Prediction Results for the entire company Period 2015-2019
No Company Code 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
1 ACES
2 AMRT
3 CSAP
4 ECII
5 ERAA
6 GLOB
7 HERO
8 KOIN
9 LPPF
10 MAPI
11 MIDI
12 MPPA
13 MKNT
14 RALS
15 RANC
16 TRIO
17 SONA
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Description:
: Bankrupt
: Grey Area
: No Bangkrupt
The predicted results use the Zavgren model from seventeen companies, the best-predicted
results achieved by ACES, ECII, MKNT, and RALS companies where the company for the
last five years is predicted to be in the category of not bankrupt. While the worst predicted
results are in MIDI companies that are predicted to go bankrupt for the last five years, LPFF
companies that are predicted to go into bankruptcy for the last four years, AMRT companies
that are predicted to go into bankruptcy in 2016 to 2018, GLOB companies that are predicted
to go into bankruptcy in 2015, 2018, and 2019. Other companies predicted to go into
bankruptcy are KOIN for the first two years and one year, MAPI in 2016 and 2018, and TRIO
in 2015. Companies in the grey area category are RANC and CSAP for five consecutive years,
ERAA in 2016, HERO and MPPA in 2016 and 2018, KOIN in 2018, LPPF in 2015, TRIO in
2016, and MAPI and SONA in 2017.
4.6 Bankruptcy Prediction Accuracy Level
The following is a prediction of the accuracy rate of the Altman Z-Score, Springate, Grover,
Zmijewski, and Zavgren models obtained from the comparison between positive and negative
net profit. Companies whose value has a positive net profit are categorized as not bankrupt and
companies that have a negative profit value then company are categorized as bankrupt.
Table 6: Accuracy Level of Model Altman Z-Score, Springate, Grover, dan Zavgren
Predictions Altman Springate Grover Zmijewski Zavgren
Z-Score
Bankrupt 11 20 15 16 22
No Bankrupt 73 65 70 69 42
Grey Area 1 0 0 0 21
Total 85 85 85 85 85
Amount Accordingly 70 72 69 68 39
Amount does not match 15 13 16 17 46
Level Of Accuracy 0,65 0,85 0,81 0,8 0,46
Type Error 0,35 0,15 0,19 0,2 0,54
% Level Of Accuracy 82% 85% 81% 80% 46%
% Type Error 18% 15% 19% 20% 54%
4. Conclusion
Based on the results of research that has been done. It can be concluded that the Altman Z-
Score model predicts there are 11 financial report data that fall into the bankrupt category, 1
grey area categories, and 73 non-bankrupt categories. Springate's model predicts there are 20
financial report data that fall into the bankrupt category, and 65 categories not benched.
Grover's model predicts there are 15 financial statements that fall into the bankrupt category
and 70 categories of not going bankrupt. The Zmijewski model predicts 16 financial report data
belonging to the bankrupt category, and 69 categories of not going bankrupt. as well as the
Zavgren model predicts there are 22 financial report data including bankrupt category, 21 grey
area category, and 42 non-bankrupt categories. based on the results of the accuracy level, it can
be concluded that the Spirngate model has an accuracy rate of 85% which indicates that the
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model is better than the other four models in predicting bankruptcy in the retail trading
company sub-sector for the period 2015-2019.
Advice for companies that are predicted to be in the category of bankrupt or critical is expected
to evaluate the company's performance and improve financial performance from various sides.
And for companies that are in the category of not going bankrupt, it is expected that the
company can increase sales so that the company generates high revenues and the company's
cash continues to grow, as well as maximize the management of the company's fixed assets
and increase the working capital generated by the company so that it can be improved so that
the company continues to avoid potential bankruptcy.
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International Journal of Advanced Research in Economics and Finance

e-ISSN: 2682-812X | Vol. 3, No. 1, 21-31, 2021

Analysis of Bankruptcy Prediction Using Altman Z-Score,

*Corresponding Author: navaadwi@telkomuniversity.ac.id

Accepted: 15 February 2021 | Published: 1 March 2021

Figure 1: Average Annual Sales of Retail Trade Sub-sector for 2015-2019

2.1 Financial Statements

2.2 Financial Report Analysis

2.3 Financial Ratio Analysis

2.5 Bankruptcy Prediction Model

2.5.1 Model of Altman Z-Score

𝑍 " = 3, 25 + 6,56𝑋1 + 3,26𝑋2 + 6,72𝑋3 + 1,05𝑋4

2.5.2 Model of Springate

𝑆 = 1,03𝑋1 + 3,07𝑋2 + 0,66𝑋3 + 0,4𝑋4

2.5.3 Model of Grover

G = 1,605𝑋1 + 3,404𝑋2 − 0,016𝑅𝑂𝐴 + 0,057

2.5.4 Model of Zmijewski

𝑋 = −4,3 − 4,5𝑋1 + 5,7𝑋2 + 0,004𝑋3

2.5.5 Model of Zavgren

TURN = sales / (working capital + fixed assets)

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑂𝑓 𝐶𝑜𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝑃𝑟𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠

4.2 Result of Springate Model

Table 2: Springate Model Result of the Company Period 2015-2019

4.3 Result of Grover Model

4.4 Result of Model Zmijewski

4.5 Result of Model Zavgren

Badan Pusat Statistik. (2018). Laporan Perekonomian Indonesia 2018. Tersedia

Business, and Accountancy Ventura, 17(3), 405.

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