DECISION SCIENCE

Answer:01
Introduction

Probability defines the likelihood of occurrence of an event. There are many real-life
situations in which we may have to predict the outcome of an event. We may be sure or not
sure of the results of an event. In such cases, we say that there is a probability of this event to
occur or not occur. Probability generally has great applications in games, in business to make
probability-based predictions, and also probability has extensive applications in this new area
of artificial intelligence. The probability of an event can be calculated by probability formula
by simply dividing the favourable number of outcomes by the total number of possible
outcomes. The value of the probability of an event to happen can lie between 0 and 1 because
the favourable number of outcomes can never cross the total number of outcomes. Also, the
favourable number of outcomes cannot be negative. Let us discuss the basics of probability in
detail in the following sections.

Probability can be defined as the ratio of the number of favourable outcomes to the total
number of outcomes of an event. For an experiment having 'n' number of outcomes, the
number of favourable outcomes can be denoted by x. The formula to calculate the probability
of an event is as follows.

Probability (Event) = Favourable Outcomes/Total Outcomes = x/n

Probability Tree Diagram

A probability tree diagram is a diagram that is used to give a visual representation of the
probabilities as well as the outcomes of an event. A probability tree diagram consists of two
parts - nodes and branches. A node is used to represent an event. A branch is used to denote
the connection between an event and its outcome. A probability tree diagram can be used to
depict conditional probabilities as well as independent events.

Solution to the given problem,

Let W be the event that your team wins the championship and F be the event that they win
the first game and,

Wc is the event they lose the championship and Fc is the event that they lose the first game.

Given,

(W) = 0.6

(F/W) = 0.7 and (F/Wc) = 0.25

And using the formulae P(A) + P(Ac) =1 and (Bc/A) + (B/A) = 1,

We find P(Wc) = 1 – P(W)

= 1 – 0.6

= 0.4

(Fc/W) = 1 – (F/W)

= 1 -0.7

= 0.3

(Fc/Wc) = 1 – P(F)

= 1 – 0.25

= 0.75

F|W 0.7

W 0.6

Fc|W 0.3

start

F|Wc 0.25

Wc 0.4

Fc|Wc 0.75

Now, since we want compute (W/FC) = P(W∩Fc)/P(Fc), we only need to find P(W∩Fc) and
P(Fc).

Next, P(W∩Fc)

= P(Fc|W) P(W) = 0.3 * 0.6 = 0.18.

We already know P(W∩Fc), so we need to find P(Wc∩Fc).

P(Wc∩Fc) = P(Fc|Wc) P(Wc) = 0.75 * 0.4 = 0.3

So, P(Fc) = P(W∩Fc) + P(Wc∩Fc) = 0.18 + 0.3 = 0.48

Thus, P(W|Fc) = P(W∩Fc)/P(Fc)

= 0.18 / 0.48
= 0.375

Answer: 02

Customer Quality ratings

satisfaction given by
score (Y) customer (X) X^2 Y^2 X*Y
5 5 25 25 25
5 5 25 25 25
5 4 16 25 20
5 4 16 25 20
5 5 25 25 25
5 5 25 25 25
5 3 09 25 15
5 5 25 25 25
4 4 16 16 16
4 4 16 16 16
4 4 16 16 16
4 4 16 16 16
4 3 09 16 12
4 3 09 16 12
4 4 16 16 16
4 2 04 16 08
3 3 09 09 09
3 3 09 09 09
3 3 09 09 09
3 2 04 09 06
2 2 04 04 04
2 2 04 04 04
1 1 01 01 01
1 1 01 01 01
1 1 01 01 01
1 3 09 01 03
1 1 01 01 01
∑X = 86 ∑Y = 93 ∑X^2 = 320 ∑Y^2 = 377 ∑X*Y = 340

N = 27

Mean of X = ∑X/N = 86/27 = 3.1852

Mean of Y = ∑Y/N = 93/27 = 3.4444

𝑁∑𝑋𝑌− ∑𝑋∗∑𝑌
Byx = 𝑁∑𝑋 2 − ∑𝑋 2

27∗340−86∗93
= 27∗320−86^2

= 1182 / 1224 = 0.9502

Regression line Y on X

Y – mean of Y = Byx (X – Mean of X)

Y – 3.4444 = 0.9502 (X – 3.1852)

Y – 3.4444 = 0.9502*X – 3.0264

Y – 0.9502X – 3.0264 + 3.4444

Y- 0.9502X + 0.418

The most commonly used form of regression is linear regression, and the most common type
of linear regression is called ordinary least square regression.

Conclusion

Linear relationships can be either positive or negative. Positive relationships have pointed
that incline upwards to the right. As x values increase, y values increase. As x values
decrease, y values decrease. For example, when studying plants, height typically increases as
diameter increases. The linear correlation coefficient is also referred to as Pearson’s product
moment correlation coefficient in honour of Karl Pearson, who originally developed it. This
statistic numerically describes how strong the straight-line or linear relationship is between
the two variables and the direction, positive or negative.

Answer: 03 (A)

A relative frequency distribution shows the proportion of the total number of observations
associated with each value or class of values and is related to a probability distribution, which
is extensively used in statistics. Relative frequency is calculated as the number of times an
event occurs divided by all possible outcomes. It can be based on observed results in a
sample or theoretical outcomes. Statistics and probability use relative frequency extensively.
It is also vital in fields such as biology and engineering, which employ probability and
statistics to learn about the world and test medical treatments and new technology.

Calculation of relative frequency

Relative frequency = Individual frequency/Total frequency

Total frequency = 6651

State name District name Total MSMEs Relative frequency

Tripura West Tripura 2951 43.83%
Tripura South Tripura 586 8.81%
Tripura Dhalai 439 6.60%
Tripura North Tripura 854 12.84%
Tripura Khowai 514 7.73%
Tripura Unakoti 447 6.72%
 Tripura Sepahijala 383 5.76%
Tripura Gomati 513 7.71%

6% 13%
9% North tripura
8% Khowai

7% Unakoti

6% Sepahijala

44% Gomati
7%
West tripura
South tripura
Dhalai

(B) Bar chart

Chart Title
60000
54053

50000 45171

40000 37500
33541
30186 29070
30000 27670 26546
25479
23231
21193
20000 15362
10895
10000

Top 2 districts are SPSR NELLORE and PRAKASAM

b. To calculate median arrange the data in ascending order,

 State name District name No of micro, small and
medium enterprises
Andhra Pradesh Srikakulam 10895
Andhra Pradesh Kurnool 15362
Andhra Pradesh Anantapur 21193
Andhra Pradesh Krishna 23231
Andhra Pradesh Guntur 25479
Andhra Pradesh East Godavari 26546
Andhra Pradesh Chittoor 27670
Andhra Pradesh Visakhapatnam 29070
Andhra Pradesh Vizianagaram 30186
Andhra Pradesh West Godavari 33541
Andhra Pradesh Y.S. R 37500
Andhra Pradesh Prakasam 45171
Andhra Pradesh SPSR Nellore 54059

Since the sample size n = 13 is odd, we have that (n+1)/2 = (13+1)/2 = 07 is an integer value,
the median is computed directly by finding the value located at the position 7th, which is
median = 27670.

Therefore, based on data provided the sample median is = 27670.