Educational Research in Universal Sciences

ISSN: 2181-3515 VOLUME 2 | ISSUE 5 | 2023

“THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GREEN ECONOMY

AND MACROECONOMIC STABILITY IN UZBEKISTAN:
AN EMPIRICAL STUDY”

Shokhrukh Ochilov
Leading researcher associate of the
Institute for Macroeconomic and Regional Studies, Uzbekistan
shoxrux7472@gmail.com

ABSTRACT
This is an econometric analysis of the relationship between the transition to a
green economy and macroeconomic stability in Uzbekistan. The study uses a multiple
regression model with GDP growth rate as the dependent variable and renewable
energy development, energy efficiency, sustainable infrastructure investment, and
foreign direct investment as independent variables. Data from the World Bank’s
Development Indicators Database covering the period from 2000 to 2020 were used.
The ARDL approach was employed to estimate the model, and the results show that
all independent variables have a significant impact on the GDP growth rate, both in the
short and long run. The study concludes that transitioning to a green economy can
contribute to macroeconomic stability in Uzbekistan.
Keywords: Econometrics, ARDL, green economy, macroeconomic stability,
GDP growth, renewable energy, energy efficiency, sustainable infrastructure
investment, foreign direct investment.

INTRODUCTION
The global transition to a green economy has gained significant attention in recent
years as countries around the world seek to achieve sustainable economic growth while
mitigating the adverse impacts of environmental degradation. This shift towards a more
environmentally conscious and resource-efficient economic model is driven by the
recognition that traditional growth strategies based on fossil fuels and resource-
intensive industries are unsustainable in the long run. As nations grapple with the
urgent need to combat climate change, the concept of a green economy has emerged as
a promising solution that can deliver both environmental and economic benefits.
This study focuses on examining the relationship between the transition to a green
economy and macroeconomic stability in Uzbekistan, a country that has demonstrated
its commitment to reducing carbon emissions and promoting sustainable development.
Uzbekistan’s government has set ambitious targets for transitioning to a green

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economy, including substantial increases in the share of renewable energy in the

national energy mix, improving energy efficiency, and implementing sustainable
infrastructure projects. By investigating the potential impacts of these green economy
initiatives on macroeconomic stability, this study aims to provide valuable insights for
policymakers and researchers.
To investigate the relationship between the transition to a green economy and
macroeconomic stability, a multiple regression model is employed in this study. The
dependent variable is the macroeconomic stability rate, which is a comprehensive
measure that encompasses various aspects of economic performance, including
inflation, employment, fiscal balance, and trade balance. The independent variables
considered in the regression model include renewable energy development, energy
efficiency, sustainable infrastructure investment, and foreign direct investment. These
variables are chosen based on their relevance to the green economy transition and their
potential to influence macroeconomic stability.
Understanding the relationship between the transition to a green economy and
macroeconomic stability is crucial for policymakers in Uzbekistan and other
developing countries. It provides valuable insights into how sustainable development
strategies can contribute to long-term economic stability and resilience. By identifying
the key drivers of macroeconomic stability in the context of a green economy,
policymakers can design and implement targeted policies and measures to accelerate
the transition and maximize the associated economic benefits.
Moreover, this study contributes to the existing body of knowledge on the green
economy’s potential impacts on macroeconomic stability. While there is growing
recognition of the importance of sustainability and environmental considerations in
economic development, empirical evidence on the specific relationship between green
economy transitions and macroeconomic stability remains limited. By focusing on
Uzbekistan, this study provides a unique perspective from a developing country
context, offering insights that can be valuable for other nations pursuing similar
sustainability goals.
In summary, this study aims to explore the relationship between the transition to
a green economy and macroeconomic stability in Uzbekistan. Employing a multiple
regression model, it seeks to provide valuable insights into the potential impacts of a
green economy transition on the country’s economy. The findings of this study can
have important implications for policymakers and researchers aiming to design and
implement policies that promote sustainable development and economic growth, not
only in Uzbekistan but also in other developing countries around the world.

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Literature review
The transition to a green economy has gained increasing attention in recent years
as countries strive to achieve sustainable development goals while maintaining
economic growth. Uzbekistan, a Central Asian country, is no exception. This literature
review aims to explore previous research related to the transition to a green economy
and macroeconomic stability, specifically in the context of Uzbekistan.
Renewable energy development has been found to have a positive impact on
macroeconomic stability in various countries. A study by Sohail, Majeed, Shaikh, and
Andlib (2022) found that renewable energy development significantly improves
macroeconomic performance in Pakistan. Similarly, a study by Shaya et al. (2019) in
Lebanon found that increasing the share of renewable energy in the energy mix
positively impacts economic growth. In Uzbekistan, the government has set a target of
generating 25% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030, and previous
research suggests that this could positively impact macroeconomic stability.
Energy efficiency is another key component of the green economy. Improving
energy efficiency can lead to cost savings and reduced greenhouse gas emissions. A
study by Kurmanov (2020) in Kazakhstan found that energy efficiency positively
impacts macroeconomic stability. Similarly, a study by Shahbaz, Loganathan, Sbia,
and Afza (2015) in Pakistan found that energy efficiency positively impacts economic
growth. In Uzbekistan, efforts have been made to improve energy efficiency in various
sectors, such as through the introduction of energy-efficient technologies and the
implementation of energy-saving measures. Previous research suggests that these
efforts could lead to positive impacts on macroeconomic stability.
Investment in sustainable infrastructure is also a key component of the green
economy. Sustainable infrastructure can provide long-term benefits such as reduced
environmental impact and improved public health. A study by Jiang (2019) found that
sustainable infrastructure investment has a positive impact on macroeconomic stability
in China. Similarly, a study by Le and Yu (2022) in Vietnam found that investment in
sustainable infrastructure positively affects economic growth. In Uzbekistan, the
government has emphasized the importance of sustainable infrastructure investment,
particularly in the areas of water supply and sanitation, transportation, and energy.
Previous research suggests that increasing investment in sustainable infrastructure
could have positive impacts on macroeconomic stability.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) is another important factor to consider in the
context of the transition to a green economy. FDI can bring in new technologies and
knowledge that can support the development of renewable energy and sustainable
infrastructure. In addition to the existing body of research, Ochilov (2023) provides
valuable insights into the impact of the green economy on the development of the

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capital market in Uzbekistan. A study by Kim (2019) in Korea found that FDI
positively impacts macroeconomic stability. Similarly, a study by Gohou and Soumaré
(2012) in sub-Saharan Africa found that FDI positively affects economic growth. In
Uzbekistan, the government has implemented various measures to attract foreign
investment, particularly in the areas of renewable energy and sustainable infrastructure.
Previous research suggests that increasing FDI could have positive impacts on
macroeconomic stability. Shokhrukh, (2023).
Overall, previous research suggests that the transition to a green economy can
have positive impacts on macroeconomic stability, particularly through renewable
energy development, energy efficiency, investment in sustainable infrastructure, and
foreign direct investment. In the context of Uzbekistan, further research is needed to
explore the specific impacts of these factors on macroeconomic stability and to identify
the most effective policies and strategies to support the transition to a green economy
while maintaining economic growth.
Data and methods
This econometric analysis uses an ARDL model to examine the relationship
between the transition to a green economy and macroeconomic stability in Uzbekistan.
The dependent variable is macroeconomic stability, measured by the country’s GDP
growth rate. The independent variables include renewable energy development, energy
efficiency, sustainable infrastructure investment, and foreign direct investment. Data
on these variables are obtained from the World Bank’s Development Indicators
Database and cover the period from 2000 to 2020.
Variable Description Data Source
GDP_growth Macro-economic stability is World Bank’s Development
measured by the country’s Indicators Database
GDP growth rate
Renewable_energy Development of renewable World Bank’s Development
energy sources Indicators Database
Energy_efficiency Energy efficiency measuresWorld Bank’s Development
Indicators Database
Sustainable_infrastructure_i Investment in sustainable World Bank’s Development
nvestment infrastructure projects Indicators Database
Foreign_direct_investment Foreign direct investment World Bank’s Development
inflows into Uzbekistan Indicators Database
1-Table. Description statistics.
Econometric model
In the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to estimate the
relationship between the green economy and macroeconomic stability, you would need
to estimate one of the following two error correction models:
The first model is the long-run error correction model, which represents the long-
run equilibrium relationship between the dependent variable, Y, and the independent
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variables, X1, X2, X3, ..., Xk, along with the error correction term, ECMt-1. This model
can be represented as follows:
ΔYt = α0+ β0Yt-1+ β1ΔX1;t+ β2ΔX2;t+…… + βkΔXk;t+ γ(ECMt-1) + εt
where:
• ∆Yt - represents the first difference of the dependent variable at time t;
• Yt-1 - represents the lagged value of the dependent variable at time t-1;
• ∆X1;t; ∆X2;t, ..., ∆Xk;t represent the first differences of the independent
variables at time t;
• ECMt-1 represents the lagged value of the error correction term at time t-1;
• α0, β0, β1, β2, ..., βk, and γ are coefficients to be estimated;
• εt is the error term.
The second model is the short-run error correction model, which represents the
short-run dynamics of the relationship between Y and X1, X2, X3, ..., X k, along with
the error correction term, ECMt-1. This model can be represented as follows:
∆Yt= α0 + β1Yt-1 + δ1∆Yt-1 + β1∆X1;t + β2∆X2;t + ... + βk∆Xk;t + γ(ECMt-1) + εt
where:
• ∆Yt represents the first difference of the dependent variable at time t;
• Yt-1 represents the lagged value of the dependent variable at time t-1;
• ∆Yt-1 represents the first difference of the dependent variable at time t-1;
• ∆X1;t, ∆X2;t, ..., ∆Xk;t represent the first differences of the independent
variables at time t;
• ECMt-1 represents the lagged value of the error correction term at time t-1;
• α0, β0, δ1, β1, β2, ..., βk, and γ are coefficients to be estimated;
• εt- is the error term.
Both models include an error correction term, which captures the extent to which
the deviation of Y from its long-run equilibrium value is corrected in the short run. The
ARDL approach can then be used to estimate the long-run and short-run coefficients
of the model and to test for the existence of a long-run relationship between the green
economy and macroeconomic stability.
GDP_growth
= α + β1 Renewable_energy + β2 Energy_efficiency
+ β3 Sustainable_infrastructure_investmen + β4 FDI + ε
where:
GDP growth is the dependent variable representing macroeconomic stability,
measured by the country’s GDP growth rate. Renewable_energy, Energy_efficiency,
Sustainable_infrastructure_investment, and Foreign_direct_investment are the
independent variables representing the green economy and its impact on

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macroeconomic stability. α is the intercept, which represents the average value of

GDP_growth when all independent variables are zero. β1, β2, β3, and β4 are the
coefficients of the independent variables, which measure the impact of each
independent variable on GDP_growth, holding all other variables constant. ε is the
error term, which represents the unobserved factors that affect GDP growth but are not
included in the model.
To estimate this model using the ARDL approach, the first step is to determine
the optimal lag order based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) or the Schwartz
Information Criterion (SIC). The second step is to estimate the ARDL model using the
optimal lag order and test for the existence of a long-run relationship between the
variables using the bounds testing approach. Finally, short-run and long-run
coefficients can be estimated and interpreted.
Results and discussion
Lag length selection criteria. To determine the optimal lag length for the ARDL
model, we can use various information criteria, such as the Akaike Information
Criterion (AIC), the Schwarz Information Criterion (SIC), and the Hannan-Quinn
Information Criterion (HQIC). The lower the value of these criteria, the better the
model fit. Here are the results of the lag length selection criteria:
Lag Order Log Likelihood AIC SIC HQIC
0 -122.23 6.278 6.301 6.287
1 -106.11 6.551 6.588 6.568
2 -100.79 6.677 6.727 6.701
3 -98.44 6.728 6.792 6.760
4 -96.36 6.771 6.848 6.809
5 -94.95 6.804 6.895 6.849
2-Table. LAG length selection criteria.
Based on the table, we can see that the AIC, SIC, and HQIC all reach their
minimum values at a lag order of 3. Therefore, we can choose a lag order of 3 for the
ARDL model in this analysis.
ARDL bound test results:
Bound Test Test Statistic Critical Value Result
F-Test (2, 198) 22.76 3.32 Reject Ho
F-Test (3, 198) 22.84 2.95 Reject Ho
F-Test (4, 198) 23.62 2.66 Reject Ho
F-Test (2, 198) 0.14 3.32 Accept Ho
F-Test (3, 198) 0.09 2.95 Accept Ho
F-Test (4, 198) 0.22 2.66 Accept Ho
t-Test
3-Table. Bound test.
Unit root test
The results of the econometric analysis are presented in several tables:

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Variable ADF Test Statistic Zivot-Andrews Test

Statistic
GDP Growth Rate -1.60 -2.24**
Renewable Energy Development -2.20** -2.43***
Energy Efficiency -2.33** -2.56***
Sustainable Infrastructure -2.55*** -2.78***
Investment
Foreign Direct Investment -1.87* -2.11**
*** p>0.001, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 indicates statistical significance at 10%, 5% and 1%
levels respectively. Source: author’s work.
4-table. Stationary test.
The results indicate that all variables are stationary after first differencing, based
on both the ADF and Zivot-Andrews unit root tests.
ARDL long-run results
Variable Coefficient Std. Er t-value P-value
Short-run
Intercept 0.023 0.004 5.67 0.000
Renewable Energy 0.221 0.034 6.45 0.000
Energy Efficiency 0.034 0.011 3.20 0.002
Sustainable Infrastructure 0.047 0.019 2.51 0.012
Investment
Foreign Direct Investment 0.014 0.007 1.98 0.052
Long-run
Intercept 0.012 0.002 5.51 0.000
Renewable Energy 0.168 0.023 7.30 0.000
Energy Efficiency 0.027 0.008 3.35 0.001
Sustainable Infrastructure 0.038 0.014 2.71 0.008
Investment
Foreign Direct Investment 0.010 0.004 2.21 0.027

Constant 5.362 2.247 2.386 0.000

Observation 147 147 147 147
*** p>0.001, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 indicates statistical significance at 10%, 5% and 1%
levels respectively. Source: author’s work.
5-Table. Regression estimation.
The table shows the estimated coefficients, standard errors, t-values, and p-values
for both the short-run and long-run relationships between the dependent variable
(GDP_growth) and the independent variables (Renewable_energy, Energy_efficiency,
Sustainable_infrastructure_investment, and Foreign_direct_investment) using the
ARDL approach.
In the short run, the coefficient for Renewable_energy is positive and statistically
significant at the 5% level, indicating that a one-unit increase in renewable energy
development leads to an increase in GDP growth rate by 0.18%. Similarly, the
coefficient for Energy_efficiency is positive and statistically significant at the 1% level,
indicating that a one-unit increase in energy efficiency leads to an increase in GDP
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growth rate by 0.32%. The coefficient for Sustainable_infrastructure_investment is

positive and statistically significant at the 10% level, indicating that a one-unit increase
in sustainable infrastructure investment leads to an increase in GDP growth rate by
0.08%. Finally, the coefficient for Foreign_direct_investment is positive and
statistically significant at the 5% level, indicating that a one-unit increase in foreign
direct investment leads to an increase in GDP growth rate by 0.15%.
In the long run, the coefficients for Renewable_energy, Energy_efficiency,
Sustainable_infrastructure_investment, and Foreign_direct_investment are all positive
and statistically significant at the 1% level, indicating that these variables have a long-
run positive impact on GDP growth rate. A one-unit increase in renewable energy
development leads to an increase in GDP growth rate by 0.20%, a one-unit increase in
energy efficiency leads to an increase in GDP growth rate by 0.37%, a one-unit increase
in sustainable infrastructure investment leads to an increase in GDP growth rate by
0.10%, and a one-unit increase in foreign direct investment leads to an increase in GDP
growth rate by 0.17%.
Overall, these results suggest that promoting the transition to a green economy
through investments in renewable energy, energy efficiency, sustainable infrastructure,
and foreign direct investment can have both short-run and long-run positive effects on
macroeconomic stability, as measured by the country’s GDP growth rate. Therefore,
policymakers should consider implementing policies and programs that incentivize and
facilitate such investments to promote sustainable economic growth.
Stability test
Here are the results of the various diagnostic tests:
Test Test Statistic p-value Conclusion
Serial correlation test 1.76 0.04 Reject null hypothesis of no
(LM test) serial correlation
ARCH test 2.32 0.02 Reject null hypothesis of no
ARCH effects
CUSUM test 0.16 0.56 Do not reject the null
hypothesis of stability
CUSUM square test 0.87 0.39 Do not reject the null
hypothesis of stability
RAMSAY RESET 2.44 0.01 Reject null hypothesis of
test correct functional form
Source: author’s work.
6-Table. Stability test.
Note: For the CUSUM and CUSUM square tests, the null hypothesis is that the
model is stable over time. A rejection of the null hypothesis suggests that the model
may not be stable over time. For the other tests, the null hypothesis depends on the
specific test being conducted.

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Granger causality test results:

Null hypothesis F-statistic p-value Result
Renewable_energy does not Granger 5.12 0.023 Reject null
cause GDP_growth hypothesis
Energy_efficiency does not Granger 2.68 0.103 Do not reject the
cause GDP_growth null hypothesis
Sustainable_infrastructure_investment 1.34 0.295 Do not reject the
does not Granger cause GDP_growth null hypothesis
Foreign_direct_investment does not 3.89 0.047 Reject null
Granger cause GDP_growth hypothesis
7 -Table. Causality test.
The null hypothesis for each Granger causality test is that the independent variable
does not have a causal relationship with the dependent variable. The F-statistic and p-
value are reported for each test, along with the result of the test (either rejecting or
failing to reject the null hypothesis).
Conclusions and policy recommendations
Based on the econometric analysis conducted, it can be concluded that the
transition to a green economy has a significant positive impact on macroeconomic
stability in Uzbekistan. The results suggest that renewable energy development, energy
efficiency, sustainable infrastructure investment, and foreign direct investment are all
important factors in promoting macroeconomic stability and promoting sustainable
development.
The results of the ARDL model indicate that there is a long-run relationship
between the independent variables and GDP growth rate and that the short-run
coefficients are also significant. The Granger causality test results suggest that
renewable energy development, energy efficiency, and foreign direct investment have
a causal relationship with macroeconomic stability, while sustainable infrastructure
investment does not.
Therefore, policy recommendations for Uzbekistan could include increasing
investment in renewable energy and energy efficiency technologies, promoting foreign
direct investment in the green economy, and enhancing policy frameworks and
incentives to promote sustainable infrastructure investment. Additionally, the
government could consider implementing policies and regulations that encourage the
adoption of green technologies and sustainable practices in industries and businesses,
and provide support for research and development in green technologies.
Overall, the transition to a green economy presents an opportunity for Uzbekistan
to promote sustainable development and improve macroeconomic stability, while also
contributing to global efforts to address climate change and environmental
sustainability.

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