STRATEGY

2 มีนาคม 2566

Fundamental Portfolio
SET target: 1728 (YE23)
เพิ่ ม CPALL
Index closing (March 1, 2023): 1619.98

พอร์ตของเราให้ ผลตอบแทนติดลบที่ 0.2% นับตั้งแต่ออกรายงาน Stock picks

ฉบับ ก่อนเมื่อวันที่ 26 ม.ค. ซึ่งดีกว่า SET ที่ รายงานติ ดลบ 3.1%

Rec. TP EPS Core PER PBV ROE DY
(Bt) (%) EPS (%) (x) (x) (%) (%)

ทั้งนี้หากนับตั้งแต่ ต้นปีจนถึงปัจจุบัน พอร์ตของเราให้ผลตอบแทน 23E 23E 23E 23E 23E 23E

AMATA BUY 22.5 -4.4 -21.8 13.4 0.9 8.8 2.3
ติดลบที่ 2.1% (ดีกว่าเทียบกับ SET ที่ติดลบ 2.9%) AP BUY 14.0 8.7 10.6 6.1 1.0 16.4 5.6
BBL BUY 171.5 26.1 13.9 8.4 0.6 7.1 3.1
เพิ่ ม CPALL: CPALL จะรายงานการเติ บ โตอย่ า งแข็ ง แกร่ ง หนุ น โดยการ BEM BUY 14.0 96.1 96.1 29.9 3.5 12.5 1.9

จับจ่ายใช้สอยในร้านค้าที่คาดจะมากขึ้น การฟื้ นตัวหลังโควิดส่งผลให้ค่าเฉลี่ย

COM7 BUY 42.0 15.7 13.8 21.0 10.6 49.4 4.1
CPALL BUY 80.0 44.9 44.8 41.7 1.8 17.6 1.8
การเข้ า ร้ า นค้ า และการใช้ จ่ า ยของลู ก ค้ า ของ 7-Eleven เพิ่ มขึ้ น โดยมี GULF BUY 68.0 43.7 35.6 23.9 5.2 14.2 1.1

ยอดขายสูงขึ้นในทุกหมวดหมู่ผ ลิ ตภั ณ ฑ์ แนวโน้ มไตรมาส 1/66 แข็งแกร่ง PSL T-BUY 14.0 -52.4 -52.4 11.0 1.4 13.8 7.9
TISCO BUY 115.0 4.7 9.4 10.9 1.8 17.3 7.2
เป็นผลมาจากการบริโภคภายในประเทศที่แข็งแกร่งและจานวนนักท่องเที่ยวที่ WHA BUY 4.2 -21.4 -14.5 19.4 1.6 9.8 3.8
เพิ่ มขึ้น การปรับตัวลดลงของราคาหุ้น CPALL จากผลประกอบการไตรมาส
4/65 ที่ต่าคาดจากรายการพิ เศษ (ค่าใช้จ่ายสวัสดิการพนักงาน) เป็นโอกาส Track record—since inception
ในการเข้าซื้อ 70
Model port SET Rel. to SET
60
50
นาออกจากพอร์ต: GPSC 40
Return (%)

30
20
ปัจจัยเสี่ยง: 1) รายงานตัวเลขเศรษฐกิจและข้อมูลทางการเงินที่ชะลอตัวลง 10

จากประเทศสหรัฐฯ, ยุ โรป และเอเชีย 2) นั กลงทุนหลี ก เลี่ ยงความเสี่ยงมาก

0
-10

ขึ้น ส่งผลให้ ต ลาดปรับลดลงมาซื้อ ขายในระดั บที่ ต่ าลง 3) มาตรการกระตุ้ น -20

'11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23
Model port 12.0 64.5 8.5 24.0 2.4 15.0 24.0 -16.1 -0.9 5.5 21.5 3.9 -2.1
เศรษฐกิจของรัฐบาลที่ไม่มีประสิทธิภาพ 4) เศรษฐกิจภายในประเทศที่อ่อนแอ SET -3.8 35.8 -6.7 15.3 -14.0 19.8 13.7 -10.8 1.0 -8.3 14.4 0.7 -2.9
Rel. to SET 15.8 28.7 15.2 8.7 16.4 -4.7 10.3 -5.2 -1.9 13.8 7.1 3.3 0.8
กว่าคาดและ5)ความตึงเครียดทางการเมืองระหว่างภูมิภาค
Old portfolio New portfolio
ทั้งนี้ อาจมีโอกาสในการปรับเพิ่ มประมาณการหากมีรายงานตัวเลขเศรษฐกิจ
Wgt Price (Bt) Return Wgt Prc (Bt)
% 26-1-23 1-3-23 % % 1-3-23

ในเชิงบวกในกลุ่มประเทศที่พัฒนาแล้วและกลุ่มประเทศเกิดใหม่ ซึ่งอาจส่งผล AMATA 7.3 19.5 20.30 4.1 AMATA 8 20.30

AP 10.7 11.5 12.30 7.0 AP 10 12.30
ให้ตลาดปรับตัวขึ้นได้ BBL 10.3 158.5 163.00 2.8 BBL 10 163.00
BEM 14.1 10 9.35 -6.5 BEM 13 9.35
COM7 8.1 30.5 30.75 0.8 COM7 8 30.75
GPSC 7.8 68.5 66.75 -2.6 CPALL 11 61.00
GULF 14.3 54 51.25 -5.1 GULF 13 51.25
PSL 9.8 15.8 15.40 -2.5 PSL 10 15.40
TISCO 9.0 103 102.50 -0.5 TISCO 9 102.50
WHA 8.5 3.72 3.94 5.9 WHA 8 3.94

Return since last report YTD return (%)

Portfolio 100 -0.2 Portfolio -2.1
SET 1,671.3 1,620.0 -3.1 SET -2.9
SET50 997.7 966.9 -3.1 SET50 -3.8

ปรเมศร์ ทองบัว, CFA

นักวิเคราะห์การลงทุนปัจจัยพื้ นฐานด้านหลักทรัพย์
poramet@bualuang.co.th / +66 2 618 1346

พิ รย
ิ พล คงวาณิช
นักวิเคราะห์การลงทุนปัจจัยพื้ นฐานด้านหลักทรัพย์
Piriyapon.kon@bualuang.co.th / +66 2 618 1333

Please see final page for additional important disclosures. Bualuang Securities Public Company
See disclaimer at the end of report Limited (“BLS”) is a foreign broker-dealer unregistered in the USA. BLS research is prepared by
research analysts who are not registered in the USA. BLS research is distributed in the USA
pursuant to Rule 15a-6 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.
 | RESEARCH

Figure 1 : Stock picks—financial summaries

Rec. Price TP Upside EPS gwt Core EPS PER PBV ROE Div Yld Mkt
(%) (%) (x) 5Y (x) (%) (%) Cap
(Bt) (Bt) (%) 22 23E 22 23E 22 23E Avg 22 23E 22 23E 22 23E Bt,bn
AMATA BUY 20.3 22.5 10.8 29.9 -4.4 81.9 -21.8 12.8 13.4 14.6 1.0 0.9 9.9 8.8 2.3 2.3 23
AP BUY 12.3 14.0 13.8 29.4 8.7 29.5 10.6 6.6 6.1 6.8 1.1 1.0 17.0 16.4 5.2 5.6 39
BBL BUY 163.0 171.5 5.2 10.6 26.1 40.9 13.9 10.6 8.4 9.2 0.6 0.6 5.9 7.1 2.4 3.1 312
BEM BUY 9.4 14.0 49.7 141.2 96.1 141.2 96.1 58.7 29.9 40.4 3.8 3.5 6.5 12.5 0.9 1.9 141
COM7 BUY 30.8 42.0 36.6 15.5 15.7 18.4 13.8 24.3 21.0 30.1 10.5 10.6 48.8 49.4 3.5 4.1 73
CPALL BUY 61.0 80.0 31.1 2.2 44.9 42.3 44.8 48.2 41.7 32.5 2.0 1.8 13.0 17.6 1.5 1.8 557
GULF BUY 51.3 68.0 32.7 48.9 43.7 37.1 35.6 34.7 23.9 51.1 5.6 5.2 11.0 14.2 1.1 1.1 616
PSL T-BUY 15.4 14.0 -9.1 8.4 -52.4 11.8 -52.4 15.8 11.0 20.1 1.4 1.4 31.5 13.8 15.1 7.9 23
TISCO BUY 102.5 115.0 12.2 6.5 4.7 -10.1 9.4 11.4 10.9 10.3 1.9 1.8 17.2 17.3 7.0 7.2 82
WHA BUY 3.9 4.2 6.6 56.2 -21.4 37.3 -14.5 15.3 19.4 15.7 1.7 1.6 12.9 9.8 4.8 3.8 59
Sources: Company data, Bualuang Research estimates

Figure 2 : Model portfolio’s performance, YTD

102

101

100

99

98

97

96

95
1/3/23

2/7/23
1/10/23

1/24/23

1/31/23

2/14/23

2/21/23
1/17/23

2/28/23
Model port Change SET SET50
Performance of model portfolio relative to SET
Performance of model portfolio relative to SET
103

101

99

97
1/3/23

2/7/23
1/10/23

1/17/23

1/24/23

1/31/23

2/28/23
2/14/23

2/21/23

Sources: SET, Bualuang Research

••• Thai Market Strategy 2

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ADVANC AMATA AOT BDMS BH CBG CENTEL CPALL GLOBAL GPSC IRPC KBANK KCE KTC MINT
PTG PTT PTTEP PTTGC SCB SPRC TOP WHA ESSO STA BGRIM GULF MTC AWC CRC
CPF CPN HANA HMPRO IVL OSP SAWAD BANPU BCH BTS CK SCC STEC TISCO TU
INTUCH RATCH VGI SCGP TQM COM7 DOHOME JMT CHG TMB BAM BCP AP KTB KKP
OR BEM GUNKUL EA SPALI RBF STGT MEGA JMART BEC SYNEX BLA KEX RCL SINGER
STARK TIDLOR FORTH TIPH AAV DELTA BCPG SABUY THG CKP

BUALUANG SECURITIES PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED IS OR MAY BE AN UNDERWRITER/CO-UNDERWRITER/JOINT LEAD IN RESPECT OF

THE INITIAL PUBLIC OFFERING (IPO) OF SECURITIES.

Lead underwriter/
Financial Advisor Underwriter/
Co-underwriter
MEB

CG Rating

Score Range Score Range Description

90 – 100 Excellent
80 – 89 Very Good
70 – 79 Good
60 – 69 Satisfactory
50 – 59 Pass
Below 50 No logo given N/A

Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
under Thai Institute of Directors
• companies that have declared their intention to join CAC, and
• companies certified by CAC.

••• Thai Market Strategy 3

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••• Thai Market Strategy 4

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••• Thai Market Strategy 5