Introduction to modeling and simulation

WHAT IS MODELING?
• Modeling is the process of producing a model; a model is a representation of the construction and working of some system of interest.
• A model is similar to but simpler than the system it represents. One purpose of a model is to enable the analyst to predict the effect of changes
to the system.
• On the one hand, a model should be a close approximation to the real system and incorporate most of its salient features.
• On the other hand, it should not be so complex that it is impossible to understand and experiment with it. A good model is a judicious tradeoff
between realism and simplicity.
• The model takes a set of expressed assumptions:
✓ Mathematical, logical
✓ Symbolic relationship between the entities
 Introduction to modeling and simulation cont..
• WHAT IS SIMULATION?
• A simulation is the manipulation of a model in such a way that it operates on time or space to compress it, thus enabling one to perceive the
interactions that would not otherwise be apparent because of their separation in time or space. A simulation is the implementation of a model.
• A simulation of a system is the operation of a model of the system. The model can be reconfigured and experimented with; usually, this is
impossible, too expensive or impractical to do in the system it represents.

• The operation of the model can be studied, and hence, properties concerning the behaviour of the actual system or its subsystem can be
inferred. In its broadest sense, simulation is a tool to evaluate the performance of a system, existing or proposed, under different
configurations of interest and over long periods of real time.

• Simulation is used before an existing system is altered or a new system built, to reduce the chances of failure to meet specifications, to
eliminate unforeseen bottlenecks, to prevent under or over-utilization of resources, and to optimize system performance. For instance,
simulation can be used to answer questions like: What is the best design for a new telecommunications network? What are the associated
resource requirements? Simulation is used in many contexts, such as simulation of technology for performance optimization, safety
engineering, testing, training, education, and video games. Simulation is also used with scientific modelling of natural systems or human
systems to gain insight into their functioning.

• Simulation is the imitation of the operation of a real-world process or system over time. The act of simulating something first requires that a
model be developed; this model represents the key characteristics or behaviors of the selected physical or abstract system or process. The
model represents the system itself, whereas the simulation represents the operation of the system over time.
 Introduction to modeling and simulation cont..
• Solving Problems Using Modeling and Simulation
• This process has the following major steps:
i. Formulate problem and model. Write a problem statement, model system attributes, and select a solution technique (presumably modeling
and simulation).
ii. Construct system model. Next, construct conceptual and computerized models and model input data.
iii. Conduct simulation experiments. Design experiments and collect data.
iv. Interpret results. Statistically analyze output data and assess their relevance to the study's objectives.
v. Document study. Write a description of the analysis and by, products associated with performing each major step in the problem, solving
process.
vi. Implement conclusions. Act upon the decisions produced by the study.
7 steps of Mathematical Modeling
1. Formulate the Problem.
2. Observe the System.
3. Formulate a Mathematical Model of the Problem.
4. Verify and validate the models the Model and Use the Model for Prediction.
5. Select a Simulation Alternative.
6. Present the Results and Conclusion of the Study to the Organization.
7. Implement and Evaluate Recommendations.

• Verification-Computational model should be consistent with specification model

• Validation-Computational model should be consistent with the
• system being analyzed
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• WHAT MAKES A PROBLEM SUITABLE FOR SIMULATION MODELING AND ANALYSIS?
• In general, whenever there is a need to model and analyse randomness in a system, simulation is the tool of
choice. More specifically, situations in which simulation modelling and analysis is used include the following:

✓ It is impossible or extremely expensive to observe certain processes in the real world, e.g., next year's cancer
statistics, performance of the next space shuttle, and the effect of Internet advertising on a company's sales.

✓ Problems in which mathematical model can be formulated but analytic solutions are either

✓ impossible (e.g., job shop scheduling problem, high order difference equations) or too complicated (e.g.,
complex systems like the stock market, and large scale queuing models).

✓ It is impossible or extremely expensive to validate the mathematical model describing the system, e.g., due to
insufficient data.
 Introduction to modeling and simulation cont..
• WHAT ARE SOME PITFALLS TO GUARD AGAINST IN
SIMULATION? analysis exercise be documented thoroughly.
• Simulation can be a time consuming and complex ✓ Using the wrong input probability distribution.
exercise, from modelling through output analysis, that ✓ Replacing a distribution (stochastic) by its mean
necessitates the involvement of resident experts and (deterministic).
decision makers in the entire process. Following is a
checklist of pitfalls to guard against. ✓ Using the wrong performance measure.
✓ Bugs in the simulation program.
✓ Unclear objective.
✓ Using standard statistical formulas that assume
✓ Using simulation when an analytic solution is
independence in simulation output analysis.
appropriate.
✓ Initial bias in output data.
✓ Invalid model.
✓ Making one simulation run for a configuration.
✓ Simulation model too complex or too simple.
✓ Poor schedule and budget planning.
✓ Erroneous assumptions.
✓ Poor communication among the personnel involved in
✓ Undocumented assumptions. This is extremely
the simulation study.
important and it is strongly suggested that assumptions
made at each stage of the simulation modeling and
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When Simulation Is the Appropriate Tool
• Simulation enable the study of internal interaction of a subsystem with complex system
• Informational, organizational and environmental changes can be simulated and find their effects
• A simulation model help us to gain knowledge about improvement of system
• Finding important input parameters with changing simulation inputs
• Simulation can be used with new design and policies before implementation
• Simulating different capabilities for a machine can help determine the requirement
• Simulation models designed for training make learning possible without the cost disruption
• A plan can be visualized with animated simulation
• The modern system (factory, wafer fabrication plant, service organization) is too complex that its internal
interaction can be treated only by simulation
Introduction to modeling and simulation cont..
When Simulation Is Not Appropriate
• When the problem can be solved by common sense.
• When the problem can be solved analytically.
• if it is easier to perform direct experiments.
• If cost exceed savings.
• If resource or time are not available.
• If system behavior is too complex.Like human behavior
 classification of mathematical models
• A mathematical model is a description of a system using mathematical concepts and language.
• Why mathematics; (Mathematics is the alphabet in which God has written in the universe (Galileo, Italian astronomer mathematician
and philosopher :1564-1642))
✓ It is a precise and concise language
✓ It is universal
✓ It is a language that computers understand best
✓ Mathematical models can synthesize results from many experiments
✓ They can unravel the unobservable
✓ They are not bound by physical constraints
• There are many different types of mathematical models
Classifying them into broad categories can tell you much about their purpose & scope and often require different mathematical
techniques
Typical distinctions:
✓ Empirical vs mechanistic
✓ Deterministic vs. stochastic
✓ Systems vs molecular model
✓ Static vs dynamic
✓ Linear vs non-linear
✓ Discrete vs. continuous
All mathematical models are composed of variables and a mathematical representation of the relationship between them
 Empirical vs mechanistic models
• Empirical Models (also called Statistical Models):
• Data driven modelling approach
• Starting point: data obtained from empirical studies
• Aim: to determine patterns & relationships between data (model variables)
• Require no prior knowledge
• Mechanistic Models (also called Process Based Models):
• Hypothesis driven modelling approach
• Starting point: specific phenomena of interest –observed from data
• Aim: to provide understanding for underlying mechanisms of this phenomenon
• Require prior understanding of system
• Data are used to parameterise / validate the model
Deterministic vs stochastic models
• A deterministic model is one in which every set of variable states is uniquely determined by parameters in the model and by
sets of previous states of these variables. Therefore, deterministic models perform the same way for a given set of initial
conditions. Conversely, in a stochastic model, randomness is present, and variable states are not described by unique values,
but rather by probability distributions.
• Deterministic models
• Assume that the outcome is precisely determined by the model inputs and relationships
• ignore all random variation
• A given input always produces the same output
• Stochastic models
• Incorporate inherent randomness
• Use a range of values for the model variables in form of probability distributions
• The same input produces an ensemble of outputs
• Hybrid models
• include stochasticity on one scale (e.g. population)
• assume underlying deterministic processes (e.g. for individual)
 Linear vs. nonlinear:
• Mathematical models are usually composed by variables, which are abstractions of quantities of interest in
the described systems, and operators that act on these variables, which can be algebraic operators,
functions, differential operators, etc.
• If all the operators in a mathematical model exhibit linearity, the resulting mathematical model is defined as
linear. A model is considered to be nonlinear otherwise.
• Linear model relates to two variables (X and Y) with a straight line (y = mx + b), while nonlinear regression
relates the two variables in a nonlinear (curved) relationship. (𝑦 = 𝑥 2 − 5 or 𝑦 = 𝑚𝑥 2 + 𝑏𝑥 + 𝑐)
 Discrete vs. Continuous
A discrete model does not take into account the function of time and usually uses time-advance methods,
while a Continuous model does.
A discrete system is one in which the state variable(s) change only at a discrete set of points in time. E.g.
customers arrive at 3:15, 3:23, 4:01, etc.
Continuous models typically are represented with f (t) and the changes are reflected over continuous time
intervals.
A continuous system is one in which the state variable(s) change continuously over time. E.g. the amount of
water flow over a dam.
 Static vs dynamic
• Dynamic: State variables change over time (System Dynamics, Discrete Event, Agent-Based, Econometrics?)

• Static: Snapshot at a single point in time (Monte Carlo simulation, optimization models, etc.)
Distinguishing Between Models, Simulations,and M&S-Related Tools

• Models
• –Need not be computer-based
• –Represent something in the real world
• –Are “static” representations
• Simulations
• –Need not be computer-based
• –Represent something in the real world
• –Are “dynamic” representations (of models)
• M&S-Related Tools
• –Are typically computer-based
• –Do not, by themselves, represent something in the real world
• –Can be used to create (computer-based) models and simulations
• Examples
• –Microsoft Excel is a “tool” (not a model), but can be used to create a “cost model” of a system
• –AnyLogic is a modeling tool that can be used to create a “process simulation”
What terminology do statisticians use to describe process models?