And concept causes and consequences

of mortality reversal
Entre Recent times many countries witnessing
b LE
As demographic transition progresses
b
Epidemiological transition progresses
6
mortality continue to fall till it
stabilises at very low in the last
stages

However in recent times we have seen

Some countries have experiencing
increase in mortality after a
period of declining mortality
This reversal of mortality has been
referred as mortality reversal
b
It is normal that mortality increases
in situt io situations of like
emergency
war famine rendamic thus such
situations not included in mortality
reversal ble it is considered over a
no longer period in decades

Such mortality reversal are seen in

both developed and developing world

Nth stage they should

adopedin
Ind world countries they
have od
already completed transition
they are in stage of degenerative
diseases
life style diseases
which of
are
primary cause
mortality
cause
General neglect of personal health care
 Developing countries

Kenya
most of these countries are in one
stage of DTT

Itemsgence of many infectious diseases

due to resistance and mutation
of malaria
Natural Disasters climate change
Politico economic instability
Tribal conflict
conseffetord countries
Tome TocatedTTI stage of DTT
possible that transition to sth stage
halt
Beneficial less old age population
Further shrinking
ble decline in
of population
fertility is normally
irreversable

Developing countries
ITocated TI stage
Fertility transition would get delaye

I 1
I 1
If mortality decline chances of delay
no

of fertility decline enlarged and stage

and huge population pressure
Conclusion Investment in health
technology to achieve sustainable
goal
Ansf Fertility is variable with time
space This variability governed
by
numerous factors
including the level of
mortality social economic development
reached availability of birth control
measures and govt policies

Fattened most direct factor mortality

rate DTT
This general decline in MRI ER
are complex interrelated with various
social economic parater parameters
ex explained Hoo
by Jones
AM of marriage
Exposer to
intercourse
I

Conception
 Io economic factors
is
city life Lurbanisation
Pension a social insurance

Compulsory education extra expenses

and no child
more labour no
economic advantages

Education Higher goals social

capillarity higher awareness

Changing status of women

work force reduced
fecundity
Difficult child rearing
Enemption cost of living

Secularisation universal religion

desire
 off
Patterns of worldfertility
Temporal
8
7
G
TFR
s t

early igth
century
Time
Phase 2

Factors Developed countries reached

in Ird and stage of DTT
I
Reasons mortality decline
They were following Malthusian market
principles P burden of child bearing
urbanisation
status of women
secularisation

Phase 3
Fertility transition started in some ofthe
developing countries It continues to decline
in developed countries
 world Fertility 2.5
of

IIE.me Ei ononic
development
urbanisation
education level
Status of women
Dedicated Fertility
control policies
ex China

Itg sub saharan Africa s W

Asia northern Africa
medium Developing Latine America
Asia
Lot Developed
IO
remain high due to following factors
for
is
High mortality gg c of human

Fertility mortality
Inmajority of societies socio culture
traditions have made where fertility
is not
left to choice of individuals
phenomena of universal marriage
to institutionalize the exposure to
intercourse Higher respect for married
couples
compulsory child bearing
Religion
15601 Study by Seh para kg atla tribe
Africa very high mortitity so high
fertility
1971 Yamba tribe western Nigeria
was Families with less than a child
looked
 Pre made society people were aware

that ble of high mortality survival

was not sure so more children

I Lowerstatefwoweninthesiety
Patriarchal society male dominance
so did desire for male child
Last sits rites performed by son
Study in Yoruba tribe Nigeria TFR 6
So average survival rate of 2
 Padania IFertility
Pendamics emerging emergencies
are

which affect mortality and

morbidity
it is expected to affect
so
fertility
covid
i.ge can affect no to 701
of world population mortality o 51 test
15 to zoo mm population

Morbidity Quarantine
mortality
lockdown all have impact on fertility

study of past pendamic show that

fertility changes in short medium and
long term
Short
term g months of beginning of
Pendamic decline in me Fertility
result of morbidity and mortality
socio economic
stability
ebola SARS

medimatfpendamic finishes
 2 3 gas spike in fertility ble
mortality replacement
Postponed fertility decision imple
implemented
function of Survivors

Ettore Impact on fertility higher

totsifficult to predict based

Pendamic alter the

marriage market ex

Covid Ig old age

mortality so no
expected effect on
marriage market
Eale_of_disaste
Grt_polines_sPronatalist.so
high fertility
socio economic impact of disaster
Scandinavia countries
Famine in Philippines
II
Intuitive theory based on 1st world
countries and similarity to theory

BI 351 to act
Duration of II stage a A decades
2nd half of isth
century transition
began 2nd half transition
completed
d
finish
gg 19305
19205
Also experience I stage Eve pop growth

EsteTorters
fertility decline
faster CLS

Faster diffusion of
medicine technology
Politico economic instability a low
fertility
 so
they added smaller base of pop
So Id stage shorter
They started transition in 1920s and
completed in 19 So s go s

III'd world
Fertility was above
AO
or ear were

higher to 1
2111 my
world
y
Remained in 2nd stage for 6 to
decades ble decline in mortality
came before the beginning of the socio
economic process began
b how
Import of a medical technology
India mortality decline since 1920s
as a result fertility decline late
b
gap leading to high population bare
Id Stage Absolute pop growth higher
 once decline
began some countries
seen very fast decline k ex China
ble dedicated
fertility policy
IninIidworld LE
sub Saharan Africa Afghanistan
some
seeing mortality reversal
2nd stage may
further prolonge
Conclusion As the third theory way
inductive theory so lots of flexibility
so later on a stage model was
converted to a model and
stage
now 5 Stage
s principles continue to hold
1
mortality decline
2
Eventually Fertility also decline
s socio economic transformation
of society
 mortality
Trans
Fertility
trans

i
1
According to demographic
demographic transaction III with
mortality transition and eventually
fertility transition and further
accompanied by various socio
economic transition

Dodd Thus IT is made up of

several transition
including
mortality transition
G Fertility transition
Age transition
transition
 urbanisation is

Development is

Household in

Agetzansition Age Pyramid

i
t
t t
t t t
t t I

i i

KHANI
5
budget o
age

Fertility decline bulge move to

working population
 om
i

21 stage explosion population resource

imbalance created and unemployment
leading to migration to under
populated or
optimum populated areas

leestheory uniform economic condition

less migration a vice versa

roster a
IF
consumer

THE II goods
 Cho to recording
2 50

azanistion ansition

l
St I
If Urbanisation through natural poph
growth low R V migration

III main component R U migration

and R V transformation
Low share of natural pop growth
I RI Flattened Curve a pattern
possible
 Reduction Sub urbanisation
U R
depending on country's
policies on international migration

India prior roll main component

natural growth Post 2011
R V migration R U transformation

i
Delopmentynsition
II
Rost
I
I
i
I É
stage

III I
both inductive model based on western
countries Rostov based on economic

political transition

Household
Family
I stuffily big small
Type of Joint Nuclear
 Basic luxury
Consumption needy consume
status of women

I examine pattern of urbanisation in

India
Literary pattern
causefirect causes
mortality Fertility transitions
In turn
complexity tied to
socio economic transition
occurring in the society

mortality Ian
Developed countries
Developing countries simultaneous
socio economic
Ertility tangy changes

_LTfoverpopulation slums
poverty

migration
III Stage pop slow down
h positive implication
 Demographic Dividentd

LateIen s

aging
Population
Feminisation of old age
s modern migration
L
Renaissance

European migration 2 direction

Tropical coastal land plantation
L Labour
initially Europe
Africa

Jung
Asia

na um a
population

Temperate Grassland
North America
South America
South Africa
Australia New zealand

ftp.T
Iotnal migration slow down
Internal
migration increased
R V E V R
Distribution urban metropolitan
conclusions For new world migration
played imp sole to but
other
factors
physiographic
L climate desert
Topographic mt
vegetation RF

EÉIg rice in Asia

Industry urban areas