AQA A-Level Mathematics

2023 Predicted paper 3 – Pure and

Statistics Mathematics
Maximum 100 marks
2 hours given
Calculator Allowed

Name: ……………………………………
Date: ……………………………………
 SECTION A: PURE MATHEMATICS

Question 1.

Find the value of

Circle your answer.

(1)

(Total 1 mark)

Question 2.

Given that

find the value of in radians, given that .

Circle your answer.

(1)
(Total 1 mark)
Question 3.

Given that

which of the following lines is perpendicular to the tangent

to the point on the curve where ?

Circle your answer.

(1)

(Total 1 mark)
Question 4.

Given that

(a) Draw a sketch of the curve of , marking the

coordinates of any stationary points and where the curve
meets the coordinate axes.
(6)

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(b) Sketch , marking where the curve meets the
axes and any stationary points.
(3)
(c) Sketch , marking where the curve meets the
axes and any stationary points.
(3)

(Total 12 marks)
Question 5.

Prove the identity

(4)

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(Total 4 marks)
Question 6.

A sector , has a centre of and radius of . The

angle is .

(a) What is in radians? Give your answer in exact form.

(2)

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(b) What is the perimeter of sector ?
(2)

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(c) A chord is drawn between . What is the area of the
minor segment? Give your answer to one decimal place.
(4)

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(Total 8 marks)
Question 7.

(a) Use the substitution to find

(3)

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(b) Hence, show that

Where is a constant of integration.

(5)

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(Total 8 marks)
Question 8.

A researcher studies the decay of an isotope over time. The

researcher begins recording the isotope’s mass in the first
hour, which is taken as the isotope’s starting mass. Every
subsequent hour the isotope decays to release a certain
percentage of its mass measured in atomic mass units
(amu) which are also recorded.

On the second hour its mass is recorded as amu.

The sum of each recorded mass until the isotope reaches

complete decay is amu.

(a) Given that the isotope has a starting atomic mass unit of
less than , what is the starting mass of this isotope
and what percentage of its mass does it release every
hour?
(5)

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(b)(i) The researcher wants to model the masses on a
graph. Show that the mass, , can be written as

(4)

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(b)(ii) The researcher would like to model the masses using
a logarithmic scale. Show that

(4)

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(c) What is the significance of the gradient of the logarithmic
model? Justify your reasoning.
(2)
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(Total 15 marks)
 SECTION B: STATISTICS

Question 9.

In a sample space , the sets , , and are related as

shown in the Venn diagram below.

What is the value of ?

(1)

(Total 1 mark)
Question 10.

Samuel is investigating the correlation between the two

variables and .

He calculates a correlation coefficient of .

Tick the best conclusion which can be made:

Increasing definitely causes an increase in .

Increasing probably causes a decrease in .

Increasing probably causes an increase in .

Increasing definitely causes a decrease in .

(1)

(Total 1 mark)
Question 11.

An environmental researcher uses emissions, in ,

for cars in the Large Data Set from London and the South
West regions.

They calculated multiple statistical measurements shown in

the table below.

Minimum Lower Median Upper Maximum

quartile quartile
London
South West

(a) Construct two box plots using the same scale to

appropriately represent this data.
(3)
(b) Draw comparisons between the emissions in
London and the South West.
(2)

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The environmental researcher uses all of the data in the
Large Data Set to statistically compare and
emissions across England.

(c) Using your knowledge of the Large Data Set, give two
reasons why these conclusions may be invalid.
(2)

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(Total 7 marks)
Question 12.

A quality manager for a toy factory wants to find out how

many of the toys they produce are faulty. To test this, they
take a random sample of toys.

(a) Give two reasons why a binomial distribution would be a

suitable model for the number of faulty toys in the
sample.
(2)

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The quality manager believes that of the toys in the

sample are faulty.

(b) State the binomial distribution which would model this

situation for the random variable which represents the
number of faulty toys.
(1)
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(c) Using a significance level, find the critical region for
a hypothesis test to see whether the quality manager is
correct.

The probability of rejection for the tail/each tail should be

as close as possible to .
(4)

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(d) State the actual significance level of this hypothesis test.
(2)

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The actual number of faulty toys in the sample was .

(e) State a conclusion which can be made based on this

value, giving a reason for your answer.
(2)

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The whole factory was reset and another sample of toys
was taken. Now there are only faulty toys.

(f) Test, with a level of significance, whether or not the

probability of a toy being faulty has decreased.
(6)

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(Total 17 marks)
Question 13.

A survey of individuals had their weight ( ) measured in

. The following summary statistics are given below:

(a)(i) Calculate the mean of .

(1)

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(a)(ii) Calculate the standard deviation of .
(2)

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Assuming that can be modelled by a normal distribution,
find:

(b)(i)
(1)

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(b)(ii)
(3)

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(Total 7 marks)
Question 14.

There is a group of people. They are categorised based

on the sports they play, with the options being football,
tennis and basketball. The results are as follows:

play football.
play tennis.
play basketball.
play football and tennis.
play football and basketball.
play tennis and basketball.
people play all three sports.

(a) Represent this data on a Venn diagram.

(5)
A person is randomly selected from the group.

Find the probability that this person:

(b)(i) Only plays two sports.

(2)

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(b)(ii) Plays football, given that they play tennis and
basketball.
(3)

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(Total 10 marks)
Question 15.

Given that

(a)(i) What is the mean of ?

(1)

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(a)(ii) What is the variance of ?
(1)

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(b)(i) Find .
(1)

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(b)(ii) Find .
(2)

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(c) The model is applied on separate occasions. What is
the probability that on each of these occasions the
probability that is at least on each occasion?
(2)

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(Total 7 marks)
[END OF PAPER]
 MARK SCHEME

1 A1M if circled.
2 A1M if circled.
3 A1M if circled
4a) A1M for factorising correctly .
A1M for finding all three roots:
.

A1M for correctly differentiating to give

.
A1M for finding a stationary point
A1M for finding both stationary points
Accept values given in decimal form and marking on
sketch.

A1M for getting the general shape of the graph starting in

the second quadrant and ending in the fourth.
4b) A1M for taking their sketch and reflecting the curve in the
first and fourth quadrant in the y-axis to complete the
sketch
A1M for curve touching the -axis at , and .
A1M for stationary points at

and oe. Accept

coordinates given in decimal form.
4c) A1M for reflecting the curve in third and fourth quadrant in
the -axis. The curve should no longer be in these
quadrants.
A1M for touching the -axis at , and .
A1M for stationary points at
 and oe. Accept
coordinates given in decimal form.
5 A1M for indicating

A1M for simplifying to obtain:

oe.
A1M for simplifying to obtain .
A1M for noticing a difference of two squares and cancelling
to obtain:

6a) A1M for indicating that

A1M for final answer .
6b) A1M for arc length .
A1M for final answer .
6c) A1M for attempting to find area of sector
A1M for area calculated as .
A1M for finding area of major segment as area of a
triangle, oe.
A1M for final answer of
7a)
A1M for correctly finding .
A1M for correct new integral .
A1M for final answer oe.
7b) A1M for attempting to apply integration by parts:

A1M for getting one term correct when integrating by parts.

A1M for getting both terms correct using integration by
parts to obtain oe.
 A1M for correctly integrating to obtain

A1M for simplifying to obtain

8a) A1M for forming an equation for sum to infinity .
A1M for forming an equation for the second term
.
A1M for attempting to solve simultaneously e.g.

A1M for first term being amu.

A1M for isotope mass released every hour being .
8b)i)
A1M for indicating correct geometric model
oe.
Accept model with and instead.
A1M for .

A1M for using index laws:

A1M for simplifying to obtain

8b)ii) A1M for applying log with base to both sides:

A1M for applying log rules for division and multiplication.

A1M for applying power rule of logs.

A1M for final simplification to obtain:

8c) A1M for stating the gradient is the log of the percentage
change in mass of the isotope every hour oe.
A1M for showing .
9 A1M for circled.
10 A1M for ticking “Increasing probably causes an increase
in .”.
11a) A1M for choosing an appropriate scale e.g. going up in .
A1M for correctly plotting one box plot.
A1M for correctly plotting two box plots.
11b) A1M for comparing the median: The median in London is
greater than the median in the South West, meaning that
the CO emissions in London tend to be greater than in the
South West.
A1M for comparing interquartile range or range e.g. The
range in London is less than the range in the South West,
meaning that the CO emissions in London are less
spread/varied than in the South West.
11c) A1M for one valid reason.
A1M for a second valid reason.
Reasons may include:
The LDS is missing values for emissions.
LDS has outliers/skewed.
LDS is only referring to car emissions not total.
LDS only shows data for 2002 to 2016.
Values of LDS are rounded.
The LDS is not completely representative of England.
Oe.
12a) A1M for one valid reason.
A1M for a second valid reason.
Reasons include:
There are only two outcomes: faulty or not faulty.
Events are independent of each other.
There are a fixed number of trials.
12b) A1M for .
12c) A1M for stating hypotheses .
A1M for attempting to use the binomial distribution to
calculate values
.
 A1M for one correct critical region.
A1M for two correct critical regions: .
12d) A1M for attempting to add the probabilities of their critical
regions.
A1M for actual significance level of oe.
12e) A1M for comparing their critical regions to actual value: is
not in the critical region.
A1M for building a conclusion: Therefore, there is evidence
that the probability of a toy being faulty is .
12f) A1M for stating one correct hypothesis.
A1M for stating two correct hypotheses:
.
A1M for attempting to calculate .
A1M for correctly calculating .
A1M for comparing .
A1M for concluding that there is not enough evidence to
reject the null hypothesis so the probability of a toy being
faulty has not decreased.

13a)i) A1M for mean .

13a)ii) A1M for attempting to use the formula
.
A1M for standard deviation .
13b)i) A1M for oe.
13b)ii) A1M for .
A1M for .
A1M for final answer of oe.
14a) A1M for finding which play no sport and are in a box
outside the venn diagram circles.
A1M for closed curves that intersect.
A1M for calculating two of the numbers of people who play
two sports correctly.
A1M for calculating all three of the numbers of people who
play two sports.
 .
.
.
A1M for calculating all three of the numbers of people who
play one sport correctly.
.
.
.
14b)i) A1M for using correct numbers from their diagram e.g.
.
A1M for final answer .
14b)ii)
A1M for using correct formula: .
A1M for taking correct numbers from their diagrams i.e.

A1M for final answer of oe.

15a)i) A1M for .
15a)ii) A1M for .
15b)i) A1M for .
15b)ii) A1M for oe.
A1M for oe.
15c) A1M for oe.
A1M for oe.