How Qatar Became the Middle East’s Indispensable

Mediator Between Israel and Hamas

foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/28/qatar-middle-east-israel-hostages-hamas-gaza-mediator

Anchal Vohra

Analysis

How Qatar Became the Middle East’s Indispensable Mediator

Doha’s critical role in the race to free the hostages trapped in Gaza.

Vohra-
Anchal-
foreign-
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Anchal
Vohra

By Anchal Vohra, a columnist at Foreign Policy.

Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani looks on as he waits for the
U.S. Secretary of State in Lusail on October 13, 2023.
Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani looks on as he waits for the
U.S. Secretary of State in Lusail on October 13, 2023. JACQUELYN
MARTIN/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

October 28, 2023, 8:54 AM

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The person who holds the key to the Middle East’s extraordinary
hostage crisis is neither Israeli nor Palestinian, but rather the young
and taciturn ruler of Qatar. Since taking power 10 years ago, the 43-
year-old Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani has been hellbent on
positioning his tiny country—one of the world’s richest, with the third-
largest gas reserves and sixth-highest per-capita income—as a player
in global geopolitics. He has mostly failed to achieve the stature he
craves, even after hosting the soccer World Cup and solicitous
European officials cut off from their once-reliable Russian gas supplies.

The war between Israel and Hamas—a group indebted to Qatar—has

handed Thani an opportunity to attain a profile higher than any other
Arab leader in a long time. He is in a unique position to help safely
deliver more than 200 hostages. Unlike his neighbors in the region, he
isn’t worried about an uprising or a challenge to his rule from political
Islamists. Instead, he hosts Islamist militant groups including Hamas,
alongside a trade office for Israel and thousands of American troops at
the Al Udeid Air Base, from which the United States routinely carries
out operations in the region.

There is no doubt that Thani’s sympathies lie with the Palestinians. His
foreign ministry “solely” blamed Israel for Hamas’s attack and has not
once condemned the brutality. And yet Doha’s sway over Hamas might
be the only hope for families desperate for a reunion with their
abducted sons, daughters, grandparents, and other loved ones.

In 2012, as war raged in Syria and Hamas’s leadership opposed the

Syrian government, Doha provided it with shelter. Qataris said the
decision was taken in coordination with the United States and with the
blessing of then-U.S. President Barack Obama. Hamas owes Qatar not
just for offering refuge to its leaders and providing a base to plan and
parley with its Iranian patrons, but also for millions of dollars in annual
foreign aid, which help the poor in Gaza, pays for electricity—and also
allegedly bankroll Hamas’s bureaucracy.

Thus far, Qatar has managed to convince Hamas to release four

captives, all women. “We remain hopeful with regard to the hostage
situation,” Majed Al Ansari, the official spokesperson for Qatar’s
Foreign Ministry, told Foreign Policy. “There has been some progress
and breakthroughs on the negotiations, especially if we compare where
we started with where we are right now.”

A day before the release of two Israelis, a senior official aware of the
ongoing negotiations told FP that more civilian hostages would be
released over the week and in the coming weeks. “It’s moving slower
than we expected,” the official said. “The bombing of the hospital
delayed negotiations,” he added, in reference to the explosion at al-Ahli
Arab Hospital in Gaza City. “There has been positive movement,
however, as in the beginning Hamas wanted a complete swap,
including civilians. Now they want to release them for nothing,” he said,
attributing the shift to Qatar’s mediation skills.

Israel and many of its Western allies believe that Thani exercises far
more leverage on the group than he is probably letting on. He could,
arguably, apply more pressure on its leaders to free the hostages. “The
international community should call on Qatar, which finances Hamas,
to enable the immediate release of the hostages held by the terrorists,”
Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen said at the United Nations Security
Council meeting this week. “We know that Qatar can exercise influence
over Hamas, and we have no reason to believe it won’t do it,” Peter
Stano, lead spokesperson for the external affairs of the EU, told FP at
his office in Brussels.
The official aware of the ongoing negotiations said Hamas is asking
Israel to stop bombing so it can gather more than 200 captives
scattered around Gaza—some in the custody of Islamic Jihad, an even
more extremist armed faction, and some holed up in residential areas
by Palestinian civilians.

Once the civilians have been released, Hamas hopes to negotiate a

prisoner swap— Palestinian prisoners in exchange for armed Israelis—
he added. Separately, Hamas’s leadership has said it has enough
hostages to seek the release of “all our prisoners.”

Qataris are concerned that if Israel keeps dropping bombs and Hamas
feels it is nearing its demise, negotiations might collapse. A rising death
toll in Gaza and the fear that hostages may die has also led to
increased calls for humanitarian “pauses.” The EU has called for them,
and even U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said pauses must be
considered to protect civilian lives.

Behind the scenes, however, Qatar is competing with others in the

region also keen to appear to champion the cause and prove their
relevance to the West.

Read More
U.S. Secretary
of State Antony
Blinken (left)
shakes hands
with Qatari
Prime Minister
and Foreign
Minister
Mohammed bin
Abdulrahman
Al Thani
following their
meeting in
Qatar’s capital
city of Doha on
Oct. 13.

An Israeli Army
M109 155mm
self-propelled
howitzer fires
rounds toward
the Gaza Strip
from a position
in southern
Israel across
the border on
Oct. 28.
 Family
members of
Valentin
(Eli) Ghnassia,
23, who was
killed by
Hamas
militants at
Kibbutz Be’eri
near the Israel-
Gaza border,
react during his
funeral.
Turkey has offered to arbitrate, if asked by both parties. It has some
sway over Hamas, whose leaders have also sought refuge in Turkey.
But despite Islamist camaraderie between Hamas and the Turkish
president, Arabs may still prefer an Arab leader to play the lead. Doha
and Ankara are allies and have said they are coordinating.

Oman has been a reliable and relatively neutral partner for the West
when it comes to dealing with Iran, since it helped build the foundation
a decade ago for direct talks between American and Iranian officials
that culminated in the U.S.-Iran nuclear deal. But it does not have
direct influence over Hamas.

Qatar faces the stiffest challenge as would-be mediator from Egypt.

Cairo and Doha have long squabbled over diplomatic primacy in the
region, which also played a role in the release of two Israeli hostages
and has mediated several ceasefires between Israel and Hamas in
previous clashes. “Always during the previous military actions between
Israel and Hamas, always Egypt played the role of a mediator,’’ Emad
Gad, an Egyptian politician and political analyst, told FP over the phone
from Cairo. Gad said there is no doubt that, “indirect negotiations
between Israel and Hamas will happen in Egypt.’’
Sultan Barakat, a professor at the Qatar Foundation’s Hamad Bin
Khalifa University, wrote in a 2014 academic paper that Qatar’s
diplomacy in regional conflicts has traditionally been more successful in
defusing short-term crises than providing long-term solutions to
conflicts. But now, he believes, Qatar stands a better chance than
Egypt in not just mediating the release of hostages but also an
enduring caesefire. “Israel wants to push millions of Palestinians in the
Sinai. Egypt can’t mediate if it is also at the receiving end of the
conflict,” Barakat said over the phone from Doha. Several EU
governments have prominently reached out to Qatar, rather than Egypt,
in hopes of freeing their citizens held hostage.

Saudi Arabia, for its part, has lost some credibility as a mediator with
Palestinians, as it had apparently channeled most of its diplomatic
energy in the run-up to this war on normalizing ties with Israel. Iran,
meanwhile, is despised by most Arabs, and those who signed the
Abraham Accords with Israel in 2020 have disqualified themselves as
arbiters. Qatar, a tiny nation with massive riches, however, has steadily
maneuvered itself into a position where it can talk to Israel with the
Palestinians’ benefits in mind.

Thani is young and very rich, and his one clear goal is to acquire a
long-lasting legacy. He has a shot now, if he can save the hostages
and in exchange convince Israelis to agree to a cease-fire. That might
decide the future role Qatar plays in resolving the world’s most
intractable conflict.
Anchal Vohra is a Brussels-based columnist at Foreign Policy who
writes about Europe, the Middle East, and South Asia. She has
covered the Middle East for the Times of London and has been a TV
correspondent for Al Jazeera English and Deutsche Welle. She was
previously based in Beirut and Delhi and has reported on conflict and
politics from over two dozen countries.
Twitter: @anchalvohra
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