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(Asce) La 1943-4170 0000564
(Asce) La 1943-4170 0000564
Abstract: Disputes in the real estate sector are unavoidable and are considered the most crucial aspect in the timely completion of real estate
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projects. There are numerous causes of disputes arising in the real estate sector leading to delays in projects. A proper complaint system was
unaccounted for until 2016, when the Indian government formulated a framework to secure the sector into the legal and regulatory structure.
The Real Estate Regulatory Authority (RERA) enforces the Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act 2016 (RERA Act), which has
brought about positive reform in the unorganized sector in the interest of the allottees and the promoters. This study attempts to identify and
categorize the disputes concerning real estate projects registered with RERA. A brief discussion is included on the dispute resolution tech-
nique adopted by RERA. A mathematical model using logistic regression analysis is formulated and adopted to estimate the factors causing
disputes leading to project delay. Sensitivity and robustness analyses of the model outcomes is presented. The disputes are analyzed based on
70 judgments collected from Gujarat State, India. The findings indicate that the significant dispute is a result of the documentation lapses
among the stakeholders. A competent grievance redressal mechanism has been established after the enactment of the RERA Act, with the
purpose of resolving conflicts in the sector as quickly as possible. Analysis of the model implies that the project cost is the primary factor
responsible for the delay. Mixed developments of residential and commercial projects are more delayed than individual residential and
commercial projects. Causes of disputes identified by this study can be focused on while amending the act, and all stakeholders must address
them to avoid any future occurrence of disputes. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)LA.1943-4170.0000564. © 2022 American Society of Civil
Engineers.
Author keywords: Delay; Dispute; Dispute resolution; Logistic regression analysis; Real estate (regulation and development) act, 2016
(RERA Act); Real estate regulatory authority (RERA); Robustness analysis; Sensitivity analysis.
Introduction has introduced the Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act
2016 (RERA Act) (Ministry of Law and Justice 2016). The real
The real estate sector is one of the most globally recognized sectors. estate sector is thus expected to be streamlined, benefitting all
The industry covers housing, retail, hospitality, and commercial as the stakeholders (Civil Service India 2018).
subsectors (Invest India 2021). Any construction project, including There are 92 sections in the act that focus on protecting the in-
the real estate sector, is most widely known for its delayed deliv- terests of both its major stakeholders, the allottees (homebuyers) and
erance, irrespective of its type, location, and delivery system the promoter (builder/developer). It must be studied, and the various
(Bektas et al. 2021). Disputes have been identified as an epidemic provisions offered by the act needs to be understood. It is a recently
in the construction business, and they frequently result in project formulated act, and thus, necessary amendments can be incorpo-
failure, time and money loss, and strained relationships among rated based on the experience of experts in the field and studies con-
project participants (Cheung and Pang 2013; Cheung et al. 2001). ducted in the area. One of the major aims of the act is to provide a
Unless and until issues are handled quickly, they tend to escalate proper grievance redressal mechanism for the stakeholders for
and eventually lead to dispute resolution actions. These proceed- speedy resolution of the disputes, which was earlier missing in this
ings take time and money. Investigating construction industry dis- area. Another essential objective of the act is the transparency be-
putes and their causes is critical, and appropriate management tween the stakeholders, by which the act enforces the formulation of
action can only be performed if based on credible evidence (Fenn the Real Estate Regulatory Authority (RERA) to provide the details
et al. 1997). of the projects under its purview for public viewing.
Likewise, real estate projects are subject to delays and disputes The present study, thus, reviews the provisions and the actions
due to numerous reasons. There are many mechanisms for averting of the RERA Act and its contribution to resolving disputes occur-
disputes. Due to the rapid urbanization, legislation in the sector is ring among the stakeholders. A mathematical model using logistic
the urgently need. Hence, the government has become aware and regression analysis is formulated to estimate the critical factors,
available for the projects, causing disputes leading to the delay
1
Ph.D. Research Scholar, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Sardar Vallabhbhai of a project.
National Institute of Technology, Surat, Gujarat 395007, India (corresponding In the next section, the literature review of delays, disputes, dis-
author). Email: mukulpatelb@gmail.com pute resolution, and the factors/indicators affecting the project is
2
Associate Professor, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Sardar Vallabhbhai presented to finalize the objectives of the study. The provisions,
National Institute of Technology, Surat, Gujarat 395007, India. Email: dispute resolution mechanism, and the availability of project
dapscholar@gmail.com information/characteristics under the purview of the RERA Act
Note. This manuscript was submitted on April 7, 2022; approved on
are subsequently discussed. The analysis of the occurrences of vari-
July 4, 2022; published online on October 19, 2022. Discussion period
open until March 19, 2023; separate discussions must be submitted for in- ous disputes under RERA, formulation of the logistic regression
dividual papers. This paper is part of the Journal of Legal Affairs and model with the available project information along with sensitivity
Dispute Resolution in Engineering and Construction, © ASCE, ISSN and robustness analyses of the model is presented in the further
1943-4162. sections, followed by conclusions of the study.
unprecedented times, the rate of increase was higher than in 2019, Mitkus 2014). Delays on account of the contractor includes
when the market rose by 8.3% (Hariharan et al. 2021). While the improper project management, lack of planning, and poor financial
US accounted for 38.8% of the market in 2020, Europe, the Middle management (Deep et al. 2018; Barman and Charoenngam 2017).
East, and Africa (EMEA), and the Asia-Pacific (APAC) accounted In their study, Deep et al. (2018) identified that contractors are ma-
for 34.7% and 26.5%, respectively. On a year-on-year basis, the jorly responsible for the delay in real estate construction projects
market size in the US increased by 5.8% in 2020 to USD4.1 trillion, from among various criteria such as financial issues, partnering,
while EMEA and APAC increased by 13.4% and 8.3%, respec- error identification and rectification, and site conditions.
tively, to USD3.6 trillion and USD2.8 trillion (Hariharan et al. Delays in making decisions, delays in progress, cost overruns, a
2021). lack of rigorous quality control, modifications, and contractual term
The construction development sector of the economy of India misinterpretation are all sources of significant claims that result in
encompasses three segments: real estate construction, infrastruc- disputes in the construction sector (Ilter and Bakioglu 2018). Many
ture, and industrial construction (Invest India 2021). According researchers have identified the causes of disputes. Kumaraswamy
to the United Nations, Indian cities will constitute 50% of the entire (1997) classified the causes of disputes in two ways: primary causes
population by the year 2046, hence leading to a high demand for and root causes. Primary causes mainly relate to inaccurate design
houses in urban areas. In comparison to the required construction information, inadequate contract administration, or delayed site
pace of five houses per 1,000 people, around three houses are built possession. Conversely, root causes include unfair risk allocation,
per 1,000 people per year in India (IBEF 2021). According to The inappropriate contract type, and unrealistic expectations. Acharya
Economic Times (2017), the current urban housing deficit is ex- et al. (2006) analyzed the construction industry in Korea and clas-
pected to exceed 10 million units. To accommodate the country’s sified the causes of conflicts leading to disputes into six groups,
growing urban population, an extra 25 million units of affordable categorized as conflicts arising out of differing site conditions,
housing are needed by 2030 (IBEF 2021). In this regard, the Indian errors and omissions in design, obstruction by local people, an ex-
government has enacted a slew of housing laws. The National cessive quantity of work, differences in change-order valuation, and
Urban Housing and Habitat Policy of 2007 was the first policy fo- ambiguity in specifications.
cusing on urban housing (Ministry of Housing and Urban Poverty Many previous studies have focused on examining the relation-
Alleviation 2012). The government promoted the Pradhan Mantri ship between project delivery system (PDS) and various factors
Awas Yojana–Urban (PMAY-U), a flagship mission being executed such as project characteristics, contractors’ characteristics, owners’
by the Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs. The mission targets characteristics, and external environment (Chen et al. 2011;
urban housing shortages among the economically weaker sections Mostavafi and Karamouz 2010; Luu et al. 2003). Liu et al. (2016)
(EWS)/low-income group (LIG) and middle-income group (MIG) determined that the project scale, project type, disputes, project
groups, including slum dwellers, by guaranteeing a pucca (strong) complexity, flexibility, and scope definition are the major factors
home to all qualified urban households by 2022 (Pradhan Mantri influencing the decision-making of the PDS. Similar factors have
Awas Yojana-Urban 2022). In 2017, real estate contributed about been used in this study to establish a relationship between project
6%–7% of India’s GDP, which is forecasted to be 13% by 2025 as characteristics and their impact on disputes, ultimately leading to
per the projected growth trends (Invest India 2021; Money Control delay. While many indicators or factors affect a project from being
2021). The financial, real estate, and professional services contrib- disputed in any matter, factors such as project cost, project type,
ute a maximum of about 22.05% for 2020–2021 (Statistics Times project validity, and project land area are available on the portal of
2021). each state’s Real Estate Regulatory Authority website. Many stud-
Given such an essential contribution to the country’s overall de- ies related to these factors linking to the project are conducted and a
velopment, the real estate sector in India is faced with a wide vari- summary of the literature review is presented in Table 1.
ety of issues and has a bad image. The real estate sector is also Disputes arise due to disagreements among the contract parties.
victim of disputes leading to delays like other construction projects. According to Illankoon et al. (2019), when there is a disagreement,
The issues faced by the real estate sector due to unavailability of the contract’s parties focus on resolving it following its terms. How-
any governance briefly include an absence of proper grievance re- ever, if the parties are still unable to reach an agreement, the matter
dressal mechanism, delay in possession by developers, improper is escalated to alternative dispute resolution (ADR). Diekmann and
agreement of sale, nonadherence to sanctioned plans and specifi- Girard (1995) define dispute resolution as “any contract question or
cations, nonregulation of real estate agents, delay in government controversy that must be settled beyond the job site management.”
approvals, profiteering, money laundering, misuse of funds, infor- ADR serves as an alternative to litigation (Illankoon et al. 2019).
mation irregularity and many such matters that ultimately affect Different countries use various ADR mechanisms, such as media-
productivity (Ministry of Information and Broadcasting 2020; tion, adjudication, conciliation, arbitration, dispute review experts,
Deep et al. 2018). The project’s status was also one of the issues or dispute review boards (Parikh et al. 2019).
that the buyers were not aware of, making this sector opaque (Deep Conciliation is a facilitative form of dispute resolution that fos-
et al. 2018). All these issues have been looked upon by the RERA ters beneficial connections. The facilitator seeks to build a pleasant
Act. In resort to the various ambiguities aggravating the image of and mutually beneficial connection between the parties. The goal is
x3 Project registration validity Metric The time of project’s completion as submitted by the promoter during
the registration of the project (this also includes automatic extension
received due to Covid-19, extension period has been considered in the
registration validity).
x4 Project cost category Nonmetric The website provides us the following project cost categories and is
represented as follows:
1 ¼ <50 crore; 2 ¼ 50–100 crore; 3 ¼ >100 crore; and 4 = not
known.
Z [logitðpÞ] Delay Binary 0 = no delay (for projects whose Form 4a is submitted within the project
validity OR whose validity is yet to lapse).
1 = delay (for projects whose Form 4a is not submitted within the project
validity).
a
Form 4 is a document submitted by the architect in-charge, which is issued on completion of each building or wing as the case may be to the RERA.
between the stakeholders and does not vary for any private real where logitðpÞ ¼ logðoddsÞ ¼ logðp=1 − pÞ; p = probability of
estate project registered with RERA. The majority of the disputes delay; and c0 = intercept; c1, c2, c3, cn = coefficients of variables
are such that they cannot be quantified into monetary values. For x1, x2, x3, xn, respectively.
example, if the dispute is regarding documentation lapses, the Au- The odds ratio (OR) quantifies how strongly an occurrence is
thority passes the judgment against the defaulter to fulfill the matter linked to exposure. The OR compares the likelihood of an event
for which the complaint was raised. Such types of complaints can- happening in the presence of a certain exposure to the likelihood
not be quantified and transformed into the monetary value, and of that outcome occurring in the absence of that exposure (Szumilas
since these are in majority and beyond the scope of the study, these 2010). The greater the odds ratio, the more likely the event with
situations not been included in the current work. exposure will occur. The odds ratio less than 1 indicates that the
Logistic regression is a subset of regression designed to predict occurrence is less likely to occur due to the exposure. They allow
and explain a binary (two-group) categorical variable rather than a us to use logistic regression to investigate the influence of other
metric dependent measure. When the dependent variable is cat- factors on that connection (Bland and Altman 2000). The regres-
egorical (nominal or nonmetric), and the independent variables sion coefficient in logistic regression is the estimated increase in the
are metric or nonmetric, logistic regression is the suitable statistical log odds of the outcome per unit increase in the exposure value. In
approach (Hair et al. 2018). Thus, the favored regression technique other words, the odds ratio associated with a one-unit increase in
for this research is logistic regression modeling. It relates to deter- exposure is the exponential function of the regression coefficient
mining the chance of an event falling into one of the two outcomes; (Andrade 2015; Szumilas 2010). The odds of delay are defined
this research explores two such outcomes: delay versus nondelay. by the function as shown in Eq. (2)
Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to develop an equation
for the prediction of delay. Delay factors included in the equation are probability of delay
Odds of delay ¼
project land area (m2 ), project type (residential, commercial, mixed, 1 − probability of delay
or plotted), project registration validity (months), and project cost ¼ ec0þc1x1þc2x2þc3x3þ · · · þcnxn ð2Þ
category. Project land area and project registration validity were
modeled as continuous metric variables, and project type and project
cost category were nonmetric categorical variables as described in The relation in Eq. (3) shows the percentage change in odds
Table 3.
Jaselskis and Ashley (1991) employed logistic regression to Percentage change in odds
forecast a construction project’s success. Russell and Jaselskis ¼ ðExponentiated coefficient − 1.0Þ × 100 ð3Þ
(1992) applied the discrete choice logistic regression in predicting
the construction contractor’s failure before its award. Diekmann where, the exponentiated coefficient is the transformation (antilog)
and Girard (1995) created a logistic regression model named the of the original logistic coefficient, i.e., odds of the delay due to a
disputes potential index to predict disputes. Several studies on variable while assuming the other variables are fixed. Exponenti-
the application of logistic regression in different fields have also ated coefficients directly reflect the magnitude of the change in the
been undertaken. odds value and are more helpful in determining the magnitude of
The multivariate logistic regression is in the form as exhibited the relationship than the original logistic coefficient. An exponen-
in Eq. (1) tiated coefficient of 1 denotes no change in the outcome, and the
values above 1.0 denote a positive relationship while values less
logitðpÞ ¼ c0 þ c1x1 þ c2x2 þ c3x3 þ · · · þ cnxn ð1Þ than 1.0 reflect a negative relationship.
MahaRERA constituted this forum. The conciliation procedure order is formulated and passed to that effect which is binding by
followed by MahaRERA is outlined in brief: both the parties.
1. Online application on the conciliation forum (CF) portal needs
to be filed by the complainant. The other party will automati-
cally receive an e-mail regarding the same. Analysis
2. The other party must give their consent for conciliation within
7 days. From Table 2, it can be observed that disputes under RERA are
3. After their consent, the complainant must pay the necessary fees primarily between the promoter (builder) and the allottee (home-
of ₹1,000 plus relevant taxes. buyers). Some cases do not lie under the discretion of RERA or
4. Within 7 days, the appropriately assigned bench will decide the were withdrawn due to some of the other reasons. However, some
date, time, and venue of the first hearing, which must be con- of the complaints filed due to one or more of the previously causes
ducted within 15 days, and the complaint must be completed of disputes but later dismissed are also included. The cases were
within 60 days of the date of hearing. categorized based on various causes of disputes, as shown in Fig. 2
5. Parties, in person or their authorized representatives, must be discussed for RERA-registered projects.
present. Conciliators will facilitate dispute resolution between It can be observed that the complaint filed under the dispute
the parties informally. category “documentation lapses” are the highest, with 31 com-
6. If a settlement is reached through mutual consensus, it shall be plaints registered for the same, followed by 13 complaints related
binding to both parties. The forum, in this event, must record the to facilities or the amenities not as per the brochure or sanctioned
proceeding in the Roznama (register of the daily proceedings of plans. Complaints related to delayed possession and nonquality
a court case maintained in every Indian court) and refer the same construction are only 8 and 4, respectively. Hence, the developer
to MahaRERA with the signed conciliation terms. After passing must give proper care in averting the major issues, leading to dis-
the final order by MahaRERA, the complaint will be treated as putes and subsequent delays in the project.
disposed of. The logistic regression analysis was undertaken for the following
7. Suppose a settlement is not reached or the proceeding takes a independent variables: (1) total area of project land (x1); (2) project
considerable time in arriving at a consensus. In that case, the type (whether residential, commercial, mixed, or plotted) (x2);
complaint will be transferred back to MahaRERA within 1 week, (3) project registration validity (x3); and (4) project cost category
and further proceedings will occur as per their procedure. (x4) and delay as the dependent variable (Z). A detailed description
MahaRERA has disposed of more than 60% of the total com- of the variables is shown in Table 3.
plaints received until November 1, 2021. The rest are in the process The analysis was performed on Microsoft Excel using the
of hearing. The CF received 798 complaints, out of which 714 have Solver function. The final form of the logistic regression equation
been completed (MahaRERA 2021). is shown in Eq. (4)
Withdrawn
Non-registered projects
Non-quality construction
Documentation lapses
Delayed Possession
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
No. of disputes (Frequency)
100.0%
80.0%
60.0%
Percentage
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40.0%
20.0%
0.0%
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
-20.0%
Cut-off value
Accuracy Precision Recall
1.2
0
1
0.2 0.1
0.8
0.3
True Positive (TP) Rate
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.2 0.6
0.7 0.8
0.9
0
-0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
-0.2
False Positive (FP) Rate
Robustness Analysis actual results for different project features is a concise method
(Russell and Jaselskis 1992).
The concept of robustness is crucial to comprehending the appli- Table 7 represents the percentage of delayed and nondelayed
cation of the developed model and, thus the inferences derived from disputed projects for several criteria. Based on the study conducted
the model. The definition of robustness is the level of sensitivity of by Russell and Jaselskis (1992), the authors defined five probability
a model to its assumptions (Jaselskis and Ashley 1991). For exam- categories: P < 19.9%; 20% < P < 39.9%; 40% < P < 59.9%;
ple, the robustness of the developed model can be investigated by 60% <P < 79.9%; and P > 80%. The value of P denotes the pre-
asking numerous questions whether the model can be applied to dicted probability from the developed model. Certain tendencies
variability in the data. There are several techniques for determining may be noticed, but it is difficult to make explicit conclusions re-
the robustness of models. Comparing anticipated model values to garding the robustness of these models for each category of project
delay. One would expect to find a higher percentage of delayed resolving mechanism in the context of real estate in India has also
projects in predicted probability categories close to 100% and been emphasized.
few delayed projects in categories closer to 0%. An analysis of the various judgments filed under RERA estab-
Model predictions greater than 40% will most likely result in lished that the allottees and the promoters need to primarily con-
delay. The majority of the projects in this category were correctly centrate on the various forms of documentation occurring between
classified as delayed, taking into account all project characteristics. them due to its high frequency of occurrence. Even though the fre-
This model appears robust in that it can predict the outcomes of all quency of other causes of disputes is comparatively less than the
types of projects: residential, commercial, mixed, or plotted; proj- disputes due to documentation lapses, the same may be a leading
ects with durations less than or greater than 60 months; variability cause of concern in other cities, and so all of these issues must be
in project size; and cost. A small percentage of delayed projects fell looked upon with due attention to avoid the subsequent harsh pro-
into the P < 19.9% category. This means that even if the model cess of dispute which ultimately leads to the delay of a project.
predicts probability of less than 40%, there is still a possibility that This study also proposed to model the relation concerning the
this project is really delayed. data available on the website of GujRERA, i.e., project land area,
The model predicts that probabilities less than approximately project type, project registration validity, and project cost category.
20% will most likely result in nondelayed projects. This model ap- The logistic regression analysis was performed for the disputed
pears robust in that it can predict the outcomes of all types of proj- projects, and the significant variable responsible for the delay of
ects. A small percentage of nondelayed projects were classified into a project was evaluated to be the project cost. As the project cost
the 40% < P < 59.9% category. This means that even if the model increases, the odds of a project getting delayed increases by 480%.
predicts a probability of greater than 40% and less than 60%, there There is also a positive relationship between delay and project type.
is still a possibility that the project is not delayed. Mixed developments, i.e., commercial and residential projects,
In general, the model appears to perform well in predicting have higher odds of getting delayed than residential and commer-
delayed projects when the predicted probability is greater than cial projects alone as they are usually high-scale projects with
40%. Sensitivity analysis also provided a cut-off value of 0.3 greater allottees. There is a negligible effect of project land area
(30%). However, it is unknown if a project will be delayed when
on the project’s delay. Also, if the registration validity increases,
the probability is less than 40%. The model appears to be useful
i.e., if the project duration increases, the odds of the project getting
for many wide range of real estate project characteristics. For ex-
delayed reduces by 279%. Hence, a developer must take utmost
ample, the model can be used for any project type, small or large
care in handling higher-cost projects and mixed development proj-
real estate projects in terms of area and cost with higher or lower
ects in minimizing disputes, ultimately not leading to delay of the
duration.
project. This study can augment proficiency in the dispute resolu-
tion and claims management system adopted by the RERA.
Conclusions The logistic regression model can be applied for future projects,
and the delay can be predicted. The cut-off value of 0.3 was chosen
Construction project disputes constitute a significant source of for maximum accurate results. The model formulated in the present
concern for the industry. The historic Real Estate (Regulation and study was limited to the four project characteristics available for the
Development) Act 2016 marks the beginning of a new era in the private real estate projects registered on the GujRERA website
Indian real estate sector and a start toward reforming this sector, (GujRERA 2021). The exact actual estimated project cost incurred
promoting more openness, citizen centricity, accountability, and fi- was not available on the portal, and history and experiences of con-
nancial discipline (Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs 2021). tractors were not available for all projects; hence, such data can be
The prior missing gap between the allottees (homebuyers) and the extracted from relevant sources, and the model can be redesigned.
promoters (developers), has now constructively been created and is This study attempts to analyze the secondary data available on the
highlighted in the current study, and rationalization of the dispute website of RERA and find out the causes of delays of the real estate
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