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Kauranne
Kauranne
Harri Auvinen, Heikki Haario and Tuomo Kauranne Department of Applied Mathematics Lappeenranta University of Technology tuomo.kauranne@lut.fi
4 January 2006
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Outline
Introduction to data assimilation Kalman lter Extended Kalman lter 3D-Var 4D-Var Variational Kalman lter Simulated assimilation results Conclusions
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where Mt is a model of the evolution operator, xt is the state of the process at time t and Et is a vector valued stochastic process. The second equation connects the state estimate x(t) to the measurements y(t), with their associated observation errors et, by way of an observation operator Kt.
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Kalman lter
Extended Kalman lter (EKF) Fast Kalman lter (FKF) Reduced Rank Kalman lter (RRKF) Ensemble Kalman lter (EnKF) 3D-Var 4D-Var (used in operational weather forecasting)
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where Mt is the linear evolution operator and similarly Kt is the linear observation operator. The Kalman lter operates sequentially in time.
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where Gt is the Kalman gain matrix, which is functionally identical to the maximum a posteriori estimator. In a more general case, when the evolution model and/or the observation model is non-linear, the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) is required.
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The linearization in equation (10) is produced by taking nite dierences between evolved small state vector perturbations, which is a computationally very expensive operation for large models, unless an
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adjoint code to the model M has been produced. In both cases, integrating all the columns in M forward in time in equation (11) is expensive.
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If the linearization of the observation operator at xa(t) is not good enough to construct xest(t), it is necessary to carry out some iterations of the last four equations.
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(16) (17)
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(18) (19)
+
t=0
4D-Var method assumes that the model is perfect over the assimilation period T . This leads to the so-called strong constraint formalism.
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Approximating EKF
(Strong constraint) 4DVAR: S (t) is a static background error matrix S (t ) and there is no model
est a 0
error
Sest(t) Sa(t0)
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Approximating EKF
Reduced Rank Kalman Filtering RRKF: RRKF behaves like the Extended Kalman Filter in a low dimensional
subspace determined at the beginning of the assimilation window Sest(t) = MtL
T
S F
FT I
LMtT
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Approximating EKF
Fast Kalman Filtering FKF: FKF produces results numerically identical to the full Kalman lter EKF but has one order of magnitude lower complexity FKF complexity is still superlinear, but it suits medium sized systems
well
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Approximating EKF
to Sa(t0) is propagated by the full nonlinear model and there is no model error
est
is a sample of vectors, such as a multinormal sample modulated by a low rank approximation to the analysis error covariance matrix Sa(t0) at initial time
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The idea of the VKF method is to replace the most time consuming
part of the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) method, the updating of the prediction error covariance matrix Sest(t 1) equation (11) in order to obtain Sa(t), by a low rank update that only requires a few dozen model integrations. The Variational Kalman Filter can be viewed as a predictor corrector scheme in the Cartesian sum of the state and covariance spaces. In the scheme, a 3D-Var method is used to nd both the state estimate and the error covariance matrix. Dominant Hessian singular vectors at time t + 1 are approximated by evolving the search directions from time t. The rank of the error covariance approximation can be regulated.
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where the matrix Hess(t) can be approximated by using search directions of the optimization process. During the optimization another task is done: the full non-linear evolution model equation (1) is used to transfer search directions to next time step t + 1. These evolved search directions are then used to update the approximation of the present covariance Sa(t) in order to approximate Sa(t + 1).
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At each iteration of the optimization method the evolved search directions and the evolved gradients of J are stored and the approximation of the Sa(t) is updated as the optimization method updates its own approximation of the Hessian J.
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Simple linear evolution model 100 observation times 100 grid points data is obtained at the last 2 grid points in each set of 5 (i.e. the
observed grid point indexes were 4, 5, 9, 10, 14, 15, 19, 20, 24, 25, ....)
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Conclusions
EKF is computationally unfeasible for large dynamical systems FKF is a good, exact supplement to EKF for medium sized systems VKF is a good approximation to EKF for large systems It allows model error to be incorporated It has a dynamic error covariance matrix It retains the linear complexity of 4DVAR
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