Bangladesh University of Professionals

Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences

S-II, MSS in Disaster and Human Security Management, Term-Final Examination
MDHSM 5201: Risk Modelling
Total Marks: 50, Credit Hour: 3, Date: 12 November 2020, Time: 1.5 hours
Answer Question 01 and any two (02) from the rest
(Give Illustration and Example where necessary. Any forms of calculator are allowed.)

1. Approaches such as the Weighted Linear Combination or Index Overlay require [25]
determining weights for the layers and/or map classes used in the modelling
process. The Analytical Hierarchy Process is one such method; calculate weights
using AHP by utilising following matrices (Table 1, Table 2, Table 3, and Table 4).
[Note: Random Index for 3 criteria is 0.58.]
Table 1: Matrix formulated for evaluating the importance of criteria ‘Price’, ‘Location’,
and ‘Age’ in deciding the ‘best house for shelter’.
Price Location Age
Price 1
Location 1/3 1
Age 1/7 1/5 1
Table 2: Matrix for Price alternative.
House 1 House 2 House 3
House 1 1
House 2 1/4 1
House 3 1/6 1/3 1
Table 3: Matrix for Location alternative.
House 1 House 2 House 3
House 1 1
House 2 1/3 1
House 3 1/5 1/3 1
Table 4: Matrix for Age alternative.
House 1 House 2 House 3
House 1 1
House 2 1/5 1
House 3 1/4 3 1

2. What is Map Algebra in Cartographic Modelling? What are its raster-only [12.5]
operators? Discuss them.

[P.T.O.] 1
3. Figure 1 presents the fuzzification of two layers, namely pollution index and forest [12.5]
coverage. Compute the results that would be obtained from integrating the fuzzy
layers High Forest Coverage and Low Pollution Index using following fuzzy
operators (show detailed calculation steps and justification of the steps, i.e.
calculations):
• FAP;
• FAS;
• Fuzzy gamma = 0.8

Figure 1: Fuzzy overlay analysis

4. You are to find out potential locations for flood shelters in CDP area. Draw a [12.5]
conceptual model; explain the model based on following criteria:
• Built on low slope (<20 degrees);
• Govt-owned;
• Not within flood risk level (i.e. 7.5 meters)
• Not within 1000 meters of waterbodies
• Within 500 meters of road, gas, & power.
• Building must be at least two stories.

5. Define MCDM? Discuss MCDM with aid of a case study. [12.5]

[P.T.O.] 2