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أثر تكنولوجيا المعلومات والاتصالات على النمو الاقتصادي في الدول النامية دراسة قياسية خلال الفترة 2005-2015
أثر تكنولوجيا المعلومات والاتصالات على النمو الاقتصادي في الدول النامية دراسة قياسية خلال الفترة 2005-2015
tahabenlahbib@yahoo.fr
2018/06/20 : ﺗﺎرﺦ اﻻﺳ ﻼم 2018/04/06 :ﺗﺎرﺦ اﻟ ﻌ ﯾﻞ 2018/06/10 :ﺗﺎرﺦ ﻗ ل اﻟ
ﺗ ﻒ O14 ،O47 :JEL
: اﻟ ﻠ
ﺗ ﻟ ﺟ ﺎ اﻟ ﻌﻠ ﻣﺎت واﻻﺗ ﺎﻻت ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟ ﻫ ﻩ اﻟ راﺳﺔ إﻟﻰ ﻗ ﺎس أﺛ ﻫﻓ
50دوﻟﺔ ﻧﺎﻣ ﺔ ﺧﻼل اﻟﻔ ة ﺧﻼل دراﺳﺔ ﻗ ﺎﺳ ﺔ ﺿ ﻓﻲ اﻟ ول اﻟ ﺎﻣ ﺔ ﻣ ﺎد اﻻﻗ
ام ﻧ ﺎذج اﻟ ﺎﻧﻞ وﻫ ا اﺳ ﺎدا ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟ ﻐ ات اﻟﻬ ف ﺗ اﺳ ،2015-2005وﻣ أﺟﻞ ﺗ ﻘ
اﻟ ﺎﻧﻲ واﻻﻧﻔ ﺎح وﻣﻌ ل اﻟ ﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ :اﻷﻧ ﻧﺎت واﻟﻬﺎﺗﻒ اﻟ ﻘﺎل وﻣﻌ ل اﻟ ﻘﻠﺔ اﻟ اﻟ
ﻣ ﺧﻼل اﻟ ﻠ ﻞ اﻟ ﺎﻛ ﻟ ﺎذج اﻟ ﺎﻧﻞ ﺗ ﺗﺎ ﻊ ،ﺣ ﻐ اﻟ ﺎﺗﺞ اﻟ ﻠﻲ اﻟ ﺎر ،وﻧ
أن ﻧ ذج اﻟ ﺄﺛ ات اﻟﻔ د ﺔ اﻟ ﺎﺑ ﺔ ﻫ اﻟ ﻼﺋ ،وﻫ دﻟ ﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ وﺟ د ﻓ وﻗﺎت ﻓ د ﺔ ﺛﺎﺑ ﺔ ﺑ
أن ﺎد ،ﻓﻲ ﺣ اﻻﻗ ﺗ ﻟ ﺟ ﺎ اﻟ ﻌﻠ ﻣﺎت واﻻﺗ ﺎﻻت ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟ اﻟ ول اﻟ ﺎﻣ ﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺗﺄﺛ
ﻞ وﻫ دﻟ ﻞ ﻓﻲ اﻷﺟﻞ اﻟ ﺳﻠ ﻲ وﻣﻌ اﻟ ﻠ ﻞ اﻟ ﯾ ﺎﻣ ﻲ ّﺑ أن ﻣ ﺷ اﻷﻧ ﻧﺎت ﻟﻪ ﺗﺄﺛ
ﺳﺎﻟ اﻟﻬﺎﺗﻒ اﻟ ﻘﺎل ﺎن ﻟﻪ ﺗﺄﺛ ﺎد ،أﻣﺎ ﻣ ﻐ اﻻﻗ اﻟ ﺔﺑ ﻪو ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ اﻟﻌ
ﺎد ﻓﻲ اﻟ ول اﻟ ﺎﻣ ﺔ. اﻻﻗ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟ ﻟﻪ ﺗﺄﺛ أ أﻧﻪ ﻟ ﻣﻌ وﻏ
ﺎد ،ﺑ ﺎﻧﺎت اﻟ ﺎﻧﻞ ،اﻟ ول اﻻﻗ ﻟ ﺟ ﺎ اﻟ ﻌﻠ ﻣﺎت واﻻﺗ ﺎﻻت ،اﻟ اﻟ ﻠ ﺎت اﻟ ﻔ ﺎﺣ ﺔ :ﺗ
اﻟ ﺎﻣ ﺔ.
559
Abstract:
The aim of this study was to measure the impact of ICT on
economic growth in developing countries through a econometric study
of 50 developing countries during 2005-2015. In order to achieve this
objective, the models panel data were used based on independent
variables such as: Inflation, population growth rate, trade openness, and
GDP growth as a dependent variable. In the static analysis of panel
data, it was found that the model of fixed individual effects is
appropriate and is evidence of the existence of constant individual
differences between developing countries in the impact of information
and communication technologies On the economic growth, while the
dynamic analysis between the Internet index has a negative and
significant impact in the long term, which is evidence of the inverse
relationship between it and economic growth, and the mobile phone
variable had a negative and insignificant effect, that has no impact on
economic growth Developing countries.
Key words: Information and Communication Technology,
Economic growth, panel data, Developing countries.
ﻣﻘ ﻣﺔ
رات اﻟ ات اﻷﺧ ة ﺷﻬ اﻟﻌﺎﻟ ﺗﻐ ات وﺗ ﻻت ﻫﺎﺋﻠﺔ وﺳ ﻌﺔ ﺧﻼل اﻟ
ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟ ﺎة ﻞ ﻣ ﺎﺷ اﻟ ﺎﺻﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺗ ﻟ ﺟ ﺎ اﻟ ﻌﻠ ﻣﺎت واﻻﺗ ﺎﻻت اﻟ ﻲ أﺛّ ت
ﺗ ﻟﺟﺎ ﺣ ﻰ أﺻ،ﺎد ﺔ واﻻﺟ ﺎﻋ ﺔ واﻟ ﻘﺎﻓ ﺔ اﻻﻗ اﻹﻧ ﺎﻧ ﺔ وﺧﺎﺻﺔ اﻟ اﻧ
ﺎﻟ ﻘ م وﻫ ا ﻣﺎ ﺳ ﺢ ﻟﻠﻌﺎﻟ ﻟﻠ ول ﺎد اﻻﻗ اﻟ ﻌﻠ ﻣﺎت واﻻﺗ ﺎﻻت ﻣ ك اﻟ
ﻓﻠﻘ ﻓ،اﻟ ول اﻟ ﺎﻣ ﺔ ﻟ ﻌ اﻟ ﻣ ﺎ أد إﻟﻰ رﻓﻊ ﺗ، اﻟ ﯾ واﻟ ﺄﻗﻠ ﻣﻊ اﻟ
اﻟ ﺿﻊ ﺗ ﻟ ﺟ ﺎ اﻟ ﻌﻠ ﻣﺎت واﻻﺗ ﺎﻻت أﻓﺎق وﻣ ﺎﻧ ﺎت أﻣﺎم ﻫ ﻩ اﻟ ول ﻣ أﺟﻞ ﺗ
اﻟ ول اﻟ ﻘ ﻣﺔ واﻟ ول اﻟ ﻔﺎوت ﺑ واﻟ ﻘﻠ ﻞ ﻣ ﻧ اﻟ واﻟ ﻓﻊ ﻣ ﻧ ﺎد اﻻﻗ
ﺎد ﺔ اﻟ ﻲ ﺎد ﺎت ﻫ ﻩ اﻟ ول وﺗﻘﻠ ﻞ اﻻﺿ ا ﺎت اﻻﻗ وزﺎدة ﻣ ﺎﻫ اﻟ ﻔ ﺢ ﻻﻗ،اﻟ ﺎﻣ ﺔ
اﻻﻧ ﻣﺎج ﻓﻲ اﻻﺗ ﺎل اﻟﻌﺎﻟ ﻲ ﻣ ﺧﻼل ﻣ ﻬﺎ اﻟ ول اﻟ ﺎﻣ ﺔ ﻣ أﺟﻞ اﻻﻟ ﺎق ﺑ ﻋﺎﻧ
ﻣ ﺧﻼل ﻣﺎ ﺗﻘ م،ﺗ ﻟ ﺟ ﺎ اﻟ ﻌﻠ ﻣﺎت واﻻﺗ ﺎﻻت اﻟ ﯾ ﺔ وﺟﻠ،ﺎداﺗﻬﺎ اﻗ ﺗ
:ﺔ ﻣ أﺟﻞ اﻻﺟﺎ ﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻻﺷ ﺎﻟ ﺔ اﻟ ﺎﻟ ﺔ ﺟﺎءت ﻫ ﻩ اﻟ رﻗﺔ اﻟ
ﺎد ﻓﻲ اﻟ ول اﻟ ﺎﻣ ﺔ؟ اﻻﻗ ﻟ ﺟ ﺎ اﻟ ﻌﻠ ﻣﺎت واﻻﺗ ﺎل ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟ ﺗ ﺗﺄﺛ ﻣﺎ ﻣ
:ﺗ ﻠ ﺎ ﻓ ﺎ ﯾﻠﻲ ﺎ ﻔﺿ وﺣﺔ ﻗ ﻧﺎ ﻣ أﺟﻞ اﻻﺟﺎ ﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻹﺷ ﺎﻟ ﺔ اﻟ
روس ﻟﻬ ﻩ اﻟ راﺳﺔ اﻟﻘ ﺎﺳ ﺔ ﻣ 50دوﻟﺔ ﻧﺎﻣ ﺔ ﻣ زﻋﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺛﻼث ﻊ اﻟ ﯾ ن اﻟ
ﺔ ﻗﺎرة إﻓ ﻘ ﺎ 25دوﻟﺔ وﻣ ﻗﺎرة أﺳ ﺎ 15دوﻟﺔ وﻣ ﻗﺎرة أﻣ ﺎ اﻟ ﻗﺎرات ﺣ ﻧ ﻣ
ول رﻗ ) (1وﻗ ﺗ اﺧ ﺎر ﻫ ﻩ اﻟ ول ﻘﺎ ﻟ ﻓ اﻟ ﺎﻧﺎت ﻟﻠ ﻐ ات 10دول أﻧ اﻟ
راﺳﺔ ﻣ ﺳ ﺔ 2005اﻟﻰ ﺳ ﺔ ) . 2015ﻗﺎﺋ ﺔ اﻟ ول اﻟ ﺎﻣ ﺔ( ال اﻟﻔ ة ﻣ ﻞ اﻟ
-4ﻣ ﻐ ات اﻟ راﺳﺔ
ة ﺿ ع اﻟ راﺳﺔ وﻟ اﺳ ﻣ ﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻫ ﻩ اﻟ راﺳﺔ ﻋ ة ﻣ ﻐ ات ﻟﻬﺎ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ
اﻟ ر ﻲ اﺧ ﺎرﻧﺎ ﻟﻬ ﻩ اﻟ ﻐ ات ﻋ اﺋ ﺎ ﺑﻞ اﻋ ﺎدا ﻋﻠﻰ دراﺳﺎت ﺳﺎ ﻘﺔ )ﻣﻘﺎﻟﺔ ﻣ
ﻷﺛ ﺗ ﻟ ﺟ ﺎ اﻟ ﻌﻠ ﻣﺎت واﻻﺗ ﺎﻻت ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟ اﻻﻗ ﺎد ﻓﻲ اﻟ ول اﻟﻌ ﺔ ،أ وﺣﺔ
د راﻩ ﻟـ :رواﺳ ﻲ ﺧﺎﻟ ﻷﺛ ﺗ ﻟ ﺟ ﺎ اﻟ ﻌﻠ ﻣﺎت واﻻﺗ ﺎﻻت ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟ اﻻﻗ ﺎد ﻓﻲ
ﻣﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟ راﺳﺔ اﻟ ﻐ ات اﻟ ﺗﻌ إﻗﻠ ﺷ ﺎل إﻓ ﻘ ﺎ واﻟ ق اﻷوﺳ ( ،و
اﻟ ﺎﻟﻲ: ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟ
ﻋ ﻫ ا اﻟ ﻐ اﺳ ﻣ ﺎ ﻧ اﻻﻗ ﺎد (:ﻟﻠ ﻌ -اﻟ ﻐ اﻟ ﺎ ﻊ )ﻣﻌ ل اﻟ
إﺟ ﺎﻟﻲ اﻟ ﺎﺗﺞ اﻟ ﻠﻲ اﻟ ﻘ ﻘﻲ ﻣﻌ ا ﻋ ﻪ ﺑ ﺔ ﻣ ﺔ ﺳ ﺎ ورﻣ ﻧﺎ ﻟﻪ ﺎﻟ ﻣ )(TC
اﻻﻗ ﺎد ﻓﻲ ﺑﻠ ان دول اﻟ ﺎﻣ ﺔ ﻌ م اﻟ اﻟ وﻟﻲ( ،و )ﻗﺎﻋ ة ﺑ ﺎﻧﺎت اﻟ
ﻣ ﻬﺎ ﻗﻠﺔ اﻻﺳ ﺎر ﻓﻲ ﺗ ﻟ ﺟ ﺎ اﻟ ﻌﻠ ﻣﺎت اﻻﺳ ﻘ ار ﻧ ا ﻟﻌ ة أﺳ ﺎب ﻧ
واﻻﺗ ﺎﻻت.
-اﻟ ﻐ ات اﻟ ﻘﻠﺔ :ﺗ ﻘ اﻟ ﻐ ات اﻟ ﻘﻠﺔ اﻟﻰ ﻧ ﻋ ﻣ اﻟ ﻐ ات ﻫ ﺎ :ﻣ ﻐ ات
اﻟ ﻘﻠﺔ اﻟ ﺋ ﺔ ،اﻟ ﻐ ات اﻟ ﻘﻠﺔ ﺛﺎﻧ ﺔ
اﻟ ﻗ اﻟ وﻟﺔ اﻟ ﻗ اﻟ وﻟﺔ اﻟ ﻗ اﻟ وﻟﺔ اﻟ ﻗ اﻟ وﻟﺔ اﻟ ﻗ اﻟ وﻟﺔ
01 اﻟ اﺋ 11 اﻟ 21 ﻣﺎﻟﻲ 31 اﻟﻬ 41 ﻓ وﻼ
02 ﺗﻧ 12 ﻟ ﺎن 22 اﻟ زﻣ 32 اوزﺎﻛ ﺎن 42 ﺎﻛ ﺎن
03 اﻟ ﻐ ب 13 ﻋ ﺎن 23 ﻣﺎﻻو 33 اﻓﻐﺎﻧ ﺎن 43 ﺟ ﺗﻲ
ﻛت
04 ﻣ 14 24 اﻟ 24 اﻟ ازﻞ 44 ﻛﻟﻣ ﺎ
د ﻔ ار
05 اﻻﻣﺎرات 15 اﻟ ﺎﻣ ون 25 ﺗ ﺎد 35 اﻻرﺟ 45 ﻏﺎﻧﺎ
06 اﻟ ﻌ د ﺔ 16 اﻧﻐ ﻻ 26 اﻟ ﻏ 36 اﻻورﻏ ا 46 ﻣ ر ﺎﻧ ﺎ
07 ﻗ 17 اﻻﻛ ادور 27 اوﻏ ا 37 اﻟ ﺎراﻏ ا 47 ﺟﺎﻣﺎ ﺎ
08 اﻟ 18 اﻟﻐﺎﺑ ن 28 زاﻣ ﺎ 38 اﻟ ﻠﻲ 48 ﻛﺎزاﺧ ﺎن
09 اﻟﻌ اق 19 ﻏ ﺎ 29 زﻣ ﺎﺑ 39 اﻟ و 48 رواﻧ ا
10 اﻻردن 20 ﻏﺎﻣ ﺎ 30 اﻟ ﻐﺎل 40 اﻟ 50 اﻟ
ﺟ ول رﻗ ) :(02ﻣ ﻔ ﻓﺔ اﻟ ﻠ ﻞ اﻟ ﺻﻔﻲ ﻟﻠ ﻐ ات
TC CP INF OUV POP CI
اﻟ ﺳ
5.0261 76.5228 7.6435 76.2725 2.6286 22.5716
اﻟ ﺎﺑﻲ
اﻟ ﺳ 4.8028 73.7484 6.2198 72.1006 2.3940 14.1350
أﻋﻠﻰ ﻗ ﺔ 26.17025 231.7632 80.7509 191.8700 17.6247 93.4783
-
أدﻧﻰ ﻗ ﺔ -17.6689 1.9736 22.1059 0.0454 22.3134
27.2060
اﻻﻧ اف
3.8791 46.3954 9.9514 29.5663 2.1845 0.2213
اﻟ ﻌ ﺎر
ر :ﺎﻻﻋ ﺎد ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣ ﺟﺎت Eviews9ﻣ ﻔ ﻓﺔ اﻟ ﻠ ﻞ اﻟ ﺻﻔﻲ ﻟﻠ ﻐ ات اﻟ
-6.8068 - 7.1652
Levin, Lin & Chu t*
(0.0000) (0.0000)
1.9021 0.7433
Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat
(0.9714) (0.7714)
109.151 124.175
ADF - Fisher Chi-square
(0.2498) (0.0511)
-42.7108 -16.9874
Levin, Lin & Chu t*
(0.0000) (0.0000)
-4.7262 -2.4059
Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat
(0.0000) (0.0081)
189.030 174.345
ADF - Fisher Chi-square
(0.0000) (0.0000)
254.626 219.040
PP - Fisher Chi-square
(0.0000) (0.0000)
اﻋ ﺎدا ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣ ﺟﺎت ﺑ ﻧﺎﻣﺞ STATA13 ر :ﻣ إﻋ اد اﻟ ﺎﺣ اﻟ