Science Mahara Project

Objectives:
 To gather and analyze climate data in the region of north America.
 To try and predict future climate patterns on the base of the data
given.

Sources of Data:
 https://climate.nasa.gov
 https://www.climate.gov
 https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/chapter/summary-for-
policymakers/
 https://www.space.com

Data:

 A.1 People, land, and climate in a warming

world:
 Land provides the foundation for human well-being, including
food, water, and ecosystem services.
 Human activities directly affect over 70% of the ice-free land
surface.

 Land is both a source and a sink of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and

plays a vital role in the exchange of energy and water with the
atmosphere.
 Global population growth and changes in consumption have led to
unprecedented land and freshwater use, with agriculture being a
major contributor.

 Changes in consumption patterns have resulted in increased GHG

emissions, food waste, and issues like obesity and
undernourishment.

 About a quarter of Earth's ice-free land area has been degraded

due to human activities, particularly in dryland areas, leading to
increased vulnerability to climate change.

 A.2 Impact of climate change on land:

 Land surface air temperature has increased more than global

average temperature since the pre-industrial period, contributing
to adverse effects on food security, ecosystems, desertification,
and land degradation.

 Increased heat-related events, heatwaves, and droughts have

been observed in various regions.
 Vegetation has shown both greening and browning trends due to
factors like extended growing seasons, nitrogen deposition, and
land management.

 Dust storms have intensified in dryland areas due to land use

changes and climate-related factors.

 Global warming has led to shifts in climate zones, impacting plant

and animal species.

 A.3 Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use

(AFOLU) and Greenhouse Gas Emissions:

 AFOLU activities contribute significantly to GHG emissions,

representing 23% of total net anthropogenic emissions.

 Land serves as both a source and a sink of CO2 emissions, making

it challenging to separate anthropogenic from natural fluxes.

 Methane emissions from AFOLU activities, particularly from

ruminants and rice cultivation, have increased.

 Nitrous oxide emissions from soil, driven by nitrogen application

and livestock, have also risen.

 Emissions from the global food system, including agricultural

production, are a substantial part of total anthropogenic
emissions, with large regional variations.
A.4 Impact of Land Changes on Global and Regional Climate:

 Changes in land conditions from land-use or climate change can

affect global and regional climate, either amplifying or mitigating
warming.

 Changes in land cover can lead to both CO2 release and increased
albedo, contributing to surface cooling.

 Land conditions can significantly influence the likelihood, intensity,

and duration of extreme events like heatwaves and heavy
precipitation.

 Climate change is expected to alter land conditions, affecting

regional climate, with feedback on temperature and rainfall.

 Desertification can amplify global warming but also lead to local

surface cooling through changes in vegetation cover.

 Changes in forest cover can directly influence regional surface

temperature and temperature extremes.

 Urbanization can enhance warming in cities (heat island effect)

and intensify extreme rainfall events.
Concerned SDGs:
12: Responsible consumption and production.
13: Climate Action
15: Life on land

SDGs Paragraph.
There are many SDGs that are related to the given topic. Let us
go over them one by one.
SDG 12 Responsible Consumption and Production
The main Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) in this topic is SDG 15,
which holds significant importance as it serves as a constant reminder
of our obligation to carefully maintain the balance between what we
take from the planet and what we give back to it. It explains our
responsibility in managing the depletion of our natural resources, such
as trees, and minimizing the environmental damage we cause
SDG 13 Climate Action
The 13th SDG reminds what we do today will have a major effect on the
environment in the future and that we should keep that in mind the
consequences of our actions as well as try to fix past mistakes.
SDG 15 Life on Land
This SDG prompts us to think about the many animals on land that are
dying due to the cutting down of trees and other problems that take
root due to it.
Mahara Project Main Task
Problem Statement:
Climate Change Impact Analysis: Analyze historical climate data and
predict future climate change impacts on the identified ecosystems. Use
this data to assess how climate change is affecting local biodiversity.

So, the Task I have chosen to do is: {Project Statement}.

Note: All Data, Graphs used in this project are linked in the Qr-Code at the end.
Let us Begin.
First, we will look at historical climate data of the whole world and try to assess how climate
change and the increase of greenhouse gases in the environment have effect global
temperatures in the world.

This is the graph that demonstrates the change in global temperatures over the last century. The Graph is Based on Data from the Official NASA
website.
This data shows us how much global temperatures have increased over the years, highlighting
the impact of ongoing climate change on our planet's climate systems and ecosystems.

1. Melting of Ice Caps and Rising Sea Levels:

Rise in Global temperatures cause the polar ice caps on the poles to melt, which causes
the sea levels to rise. An example of this is the melting of the Greenland ice sheet. The
ice in Greenland has been melting at an accelerated rate ever since global temperatures
rose, contributing to the rising sea levels around the world.

2. Floods and Submerging of Coastal Areas

Due to rising sea levels, rivers and other water bodies may overflow. Soon, this can cause
the near coast areas of many countries to start submerging in water. One example is the
coastal areas of Bangladesh. Due to rising sea levels and heavy monsoon rains, low-lying
parts in Bangladesh experience flooding, leading to the submerging of homes.

3. Loss of Biodiversity
The rise in global temperature has an inherent effect on plants and animals. Due to this,
many florae and fauna in many ecosystems of the world are perishing which causes loss
of biodiversity in many ecosystems. The Great Barrier Reef in Australia is a prominent
example. Rising sea temperatures have led to the widespread deterioration of the coral
reefs, causing significant harm to the marine life in the reef.
4. Economic Loss
Floods, Submerging of Coastal areas, and Extreme weather conditions all cause extreme
economic strain on the country or region facing them. Hurricane Katrina in 2005 is an
example. The extreme weather conditions and flooding in New Orleans, USA, resulted in
massive economic losses, including infrastructure damage, and long-term economic
impact on the region.

Analyzing this data, we can make educated guesses about future weather patterns. The 82-year
trend of rising temperatures is a warning, suggesting that without intervention, the potential
impact on humanity would be catastrophic.
The effects could include:
1. Extreme Global Warming.
Increase in temperature at this rate will raise the average temperature of the earth.

2. Extreme Weather Conditions.

The increasing temperatures are indeed contributing to a higher likelihood of natural
disasters, including droughts, floods, and other devastating events. June through August
 2023 marked the hottest summer ever. If this trend continues, we could experience even
hotter summers in the future. Addressing climate change is critical to neutralizing these
impacts.

3. Altered Rainfall Patterns.

Climate change can disrupt regional rainfall patterns, potentially causing severe droughts
in some areas and more heavy rainfall in others. For example, in recent years, California in
the United States has experienced altered rainfall patterns because of climate change.
While California is known for its Mediterranean climate with wet winters and dry
summers, the region has seen significant changes in its precipitation patterns such as
decreased rainfall which effects agriculture in the region and the rainwater is crucial for
groundwater refilling. And another effect is Extended dry seasons where there is almost
no rainfall for a long time, which leads to water scarcity and even increases the risk of
wildfires.

4. Effects on Ecosystems.

5. Climate change disrupts the delicate balance of life in numerous ecosystems. Rising
temperatures can lead to severe consequences for wildlife. Many animals face the risk of
death due to droughts or becoming victims of destructive wildfires. Additionally, the
increased likelihood of flooding further threatens their survival.

Here we have some Predictions for how these effects could shape our future.4

Flooding
Predictions by NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) suggest that by the
year 2050, up to $106 billion worth of coastal property could be submerged underwater due
to rising sea levels.
And it is even predicted that the U.S coastline will rise to around 10 -12 inches in the next 30
years.
Theres a 1/20 chance that that by the end of this century, more than $1 trillion worth of
coastal property will be below mean sea level or at risk of it during high tide.

Agriculture Loss
Projections suggest that many Mid-Western and southern hemisphere countries may see a
decline in yield of crops of more than 10% over the next 25 years.
Temperature Changes