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National Stances and Governance Systems: A Comparative Study of Low Carbon Governance in Germany, The United States, and China
National Stances and Governance Systems: A Comparative Study of Low Carbon Governance in Germany, The United States, and China
National Stances and Governance Systems: A Comparative Study of Low Carbon Governance in Germany, The United States, and China
https://doi.org/10.1007/s43508-023-00071-4
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Received: 18 January 2023 / Accepted: 1 July 2023 / Published online: 26 July 2023
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Institute for Global Public Policy, Fudan University 2023
Abstract
Due to the growing threat of global warming, low carbon governance has become a
worldwide challenge. However, there is great variation in low carbon performance
across countries, which can seriously affect the achievement of global low carbon
governance targets. To address this issue, this study analyzes the distinctions in
climate stances and low carbon governance systems among Germany, the United
States, and China. Then, a comparative analysis of these countries is presented, pay-
ing attention to their climate stances, their vertical governmental structure, and the
interaction of government, market, and society. We find that it is no single factor
but rather the combination of critical distinctions in climate stances and governance
systems that creates the heterogeneity of national climate actions and performances.
Finally, we put forward suggestions on how to further promote global climate
governance.
1 Introduction
* Yujie Zhu
12122084@zju.edu.cn
1
School of Public Affairs, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
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220 R. Tan, Y. Zhu
the BASIC countries. While it is impossible for any two countries to be on the same
page for every climate issue, membership in the same group can certainly be taken
as evidence of shared positions on some important climate issues.
The EU has long been committed to leading global climate negotiations and has
consistently taken a proactive attitude toward low carbon governance (Bäckstrand
& Elgström, 2013). Due to the close ties between the member countries in politics
and economy, they elaborate common positions on climate issues. Promoting global
climate governance is beneficial to the economic interests of EU member countries,
as they are already in pioneering positions in developing clean energy and emission
reduction technologies. The extremely high level of social support also makes cli-
mate action imperative in the EU. Therefore, since the early 1990s, the EU has been
seeking ways to establish a legally binding international climate institution system
(Cross, 2018) and formulate ambitious international goals on climate governance
(Oberthür & Groen, 2018).
The Umbrella Group is a loose coalition of non-EU industrialized countries, such
as the United States, Japan, Canada, and Australia. Most of the Umbrella Group
members are countries whose domestic economies are highly dependent on fos-
sil energy, and strict implementation of emission reduction policies will inevitably
affect their economic growth and national competitiveness. Thus, similar inter-
ests have brought these countries together in international negotiations on climate
governance. In previous climate negotiations, the Umbrella Group members have
been reluctant to make serious emission reduction commitments. Instead, they have
tended to rely on approaches such as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
without making any substantive changes (Gao, 2010), which also reflects the rela-
tively passive stance of these members toward low carbon governance.
The BASIC is a group of four fast-growing developing countries: Brazil, South
Africa, India, and China, all of which face the difficult challenge of balancing devel-
oping-country roots with an “emerging powers” image. On the one hand, unlike
developed countries that have already entered the postindustrial era, these four
countries need to solve domestic development problems and face multiple dilem-
mas, such as poverty eradication, livelihood improvement, and economic develop-
ment (Hallding et al., 2013); nevertheless, unlike other developing countries, the
BASIC countries, which are in the rapid growth stage, already account for more than
1/3 of the total global GHG emissions and have become a vital force in promoting
global low carbon governance actions. The rise of comprehensive national power
also gives these countries greater ambition to improve their international stand-
ing, and climate governance is seen as a vital approach. These common conditions
have led the BASIC countries to align on key power distribution issues in the global
public sphere. While all four countries note that developed countries should take
more responsibility for climate governance due to their high historical emissions,
the BASIC countries have also undertaken significant and ambitious reforms of their
domestic climate policies (Hallding et al., 2011).
Through arduous negotiations, a consistent goal has been reached worldwide to
“limit the rise of average global temperatures to no more than 2 °C above preindus-
trial levels” after the Paris Agreement in 2015. To date, 194 countries have submit-
ted nationally determined contributions (NDCs) with domestic mitigation plans and
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National stances and governance systems: a comparative study… 221
The formulation and implementation of policies are not the consequence of one or a
few isolated factors, nor is innovation on blank paper, but rather the continuous joint
effects of all relevant factors (Bressers & Klok, 1988). The interaction can be seen as an
evolution resulting from the game between external and internal factors (Aoki, 2001).
For example, economic development stage, political system, and administrative and
institutional mechanisms should all be considered in policy design and analysis (Tan,
2021). Therefore, this paper tries to summarize the low carbon governance systems of
countries from two aspects, the national stance and the domestic governance structure,
and discusses how their evolution ultimately influences the outcome of low carbon gov-
ernance through comparative analysis.
The literature review on the EU, the Umbrella countries, and the BASIC countries
indicates that countries’ climate stances can be influenced by a combination of fac-
tors, including national economic characteristics, social values, diplomatic politics, and
physical vulnerability. Moreover, the national stances at the diplomatic level can be
internalized to shape the national climate governance target, which can also influence
and be influenced by the domestic climate governance system.
This paper further hypothesizes that the domestic climate governance system can
be distinguished into two parts: the vertical structure of climate governance and the
interaction of the government, market, and society. Comprising the central low carbon
governance structure and the distribution of power and interests between the central
and local departments, the vertical governmental structure influences the choice of
policy instruments in low carbon governance and determines the interaction relation-
ship between the government, the market, and social actors. Under the combined influ-
ence of climate stances and governance systems, countries take relatively aggressive or
negative, effective or ineffective climate actions and impact the eventual fate of global
climate governance (Fig. 1).
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222 R. Tan, Y. Zhu
Domestic Climate
Governance System
Stances Climate
Targets
on Vertical Interaction of
Carbon Structure of Government,
Reduction Climate Market and
Governance Society
The severe pollution problems incurred during industrialization and the shocks of
two petroleum crises in 1973 and 1979 gave Germany the desire to wean itself off
fossil fuels as soon as possible. Moreover, the Chernobyl disaster of 1986 led the
vast majority of German society to oppose nuclear power (Mez, 2012). Driven by
these events, Germany, as a country with multiparty governance, reached a cross-
party consensus on promoting GHG emissions reduction (Monstadt & Scheiner,
2014).
As a core member of the EU, climate targets in Germany are closely aligned with
policies and regulations at the EU level, in addition to nationally endogenous fac-
tors. At the EU level, the Effort-Sharing Regulation and the European Climate Law
were established, setting legally binding GHG emissions targets for each Member
State annually as well as the target of net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.
Driven by both internal and external motivations, Germany has set ambitious cli-
mate governance targets. In 2021, the German federal government passed a resolu-
tion to adjust the Climate Protection Act, setting an economy-wide emissions reduc-
tion target of at least 65% by 2030 and at least 88% by 2040 compared to 1990
levels. The country aims to reach climate neutrality by 2045 (5 years earlier than the
EU target) and achieve negative greenhouse gas emissions after 2050.
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National stances and governance systems: a comparative study… 223
Bicameral Parliament
Federal Council State Diet
Federal Diet (Bundestag)
(Bundesrat)
Minister-President (Landtag)
Environment Environment
Department Department of State
Chancellor
Targets Energy Department
Energy Department
of State
Climate Cabinet ĂĂ ĂĂ
Transport Transport
Department Department of State
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224 R. Tan, Y. Zhu
3.3 The interaction between government, market, and society in the low carbon
governance of Germany
Market mechanisms are a practical approach for the EU and its member countries to
achieve their climate commitments. The EU officially launched the European Union
Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS) in 2005, the world’s first carbon trading mar-
ket. As one of the first members to join the EU-ETS, Germany published its Climate
Action Programme 2030 in 2019, proposing to put a price on carbon emissions for
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National stances and governance systems: a comparative study… 225
sectors with high emissions but not included in the EU-ETS, such as the transport
and building sectors. As a complement rather than a replacement for the EU-ETS,
the carbon trading system in Germany aims to expand the scope of carbon pricing to
facilitate broader domestic action.
Environmental issues have always been a crucial public issue in Germany due to the
pollution and health damage caused by industrial development in the early stage and
other historical and physical factors. German statistics show that during the 1970s
alone, there were no fewer than 2000 public environmental campaigns in Germany
(Guggenberger, 1980). In the 1980s, the Chernobyl disaster and the general eleva-
tion in the awareness of global warming led to numerous voices for climate protec-
tion and nuclear elimination, which were the main drivers for the initial expansion
of renewable energy production in Germany (Ohlhorst, 2015).
Due to the overwhelming public concern for climate issues, policies that are envi-
ronmentally friendly and climate supportive have long been able to quickly receive
the support of the German public. Hence, all major parties actively legislate laws
and regulations on environmental and climate issues to win a good impression
among constituents (Chen et al., 2019; Wassermann et al., 2015).
In addition, environmental nongovernmental organizations (ENGOs) play an
essential role in low carbon governance. Unlike many other countries, ENGOs
in Germany quickly integrated into the government due to its proportional repre-
sentation electoral system. The first representative of the green party, the Bremer
Green List, entered the parliament of the city-state of Bremen in 1979. The party
later entered more state parliaments, and in 1983, it reached the national parliament
(Mez, 2012). Integrating ENGOs and their supporters into government institutions
and policy agendas is one of the primary reasons for the emergence of the coopera-
tive character in German climate policy (Weidner & Mez, 2008).
1
https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/germany/.
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226 R. Tan, Y. Zhu
As a major producer of carbon emissions historically and currently, the United States
is responsible for 25% of the total carbon emitted into the atmosphere by human-
ity (Mildenberger, 2021). Without the active participation of the US, global climate
governance will be extremely challenging or even exist only in name. However, the
US has not made a consistent commitment to climate governance. The US is consid-
ered a volatile actor in global climate governance. When the team in power changes,
the US shows noncontinuous fluctuations in its participation in climate governance,
which makes it difficult for the United States to undertake sustained and systemic
reform of the domestic climate system (Mildenberger, 2021).
The national governance system of the United States follows the system of three
powers; i.e., legislative, executive, and judicial powers are exercised by three dif-
ferent state agencies. Legislative power is vested in the Congress, composed of the
Senate and the House of Representatives; executive power is vested in the federal
government under the president; and judicial power is vested in the Federal Supreme
Court.
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National stances and governance systems: a comparative study… 227
DoE/ EPA
DoE/ EPA
Legislation Regulation Regional Offices State Laws/
Financial Incentives Regulations
State
Congress President Executive Orders State Governors Legislature
Fig. 3 Overview of the vertical structure of climate governance in the United States
At the federal level, the president leads the executive branch, which is respon-
sible for implementing the law and providing various administrative services.
There are two channels for the implementation of low carbon governance poli-
cies. First, under the authorization and supervision of the US Congress, low car-
bon governance acts are implemented through agencies. As independent admin-
istrative departments, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the
Department of Energy (DoE) take on the main tasks, and the president directly
appoints their ministers. The EPA is the primary low carbon governance admin-
istration in the US, with ten regional offices responsible for implementing state
GHG emission reduction efforts. In addition, the DoE is responsible for formu-
lating energy-related policies (Gong et al., 2020). Second, the executive order
is the other route for the president of the United States to manage the branch of
government and release climate policies (Ding & Zhang, 2022). This approach
does not need the approval of the US Congress. However, there are potential
risks that an executive order may be overturned after a change in office (Lu
et al., 2021) (Fig. 3).
Under the influence of powerful interest groups, the US federal government
has made slow progress in climate change legislation, which makes top–down
climate governance in the US lacking in binding force. With the relative absence
of federal leadership, some states considering themselves leaders on the climate
issue have actively covered the position (Basseches et al., 2022). Several inter-
state low carbon governance partnerships have been formed in the US, for exam-
ple, the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative and the Pledge: We Are Still In, a
commitment signed by half of the states after Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris
Agreement. However, due to the increasingly polarized political situation in the
US, there is also great diversity in climate governance across states. Democrat-
controlled states tend to be proactive in adopting climate policies in the two-
party system. In contrast, in some Republican-led states, there have been many
anti-climate policies, including resistance to the federal government’s Clean
Power Plan, further subsidies to the fossil fuel industry, and reduced incentives
for renewable energy (Basseches et al., 2022).
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228 R. Tan, Y. Zhu
4.3 The interaction between government, market, and society in the low carbon
governance of the United States
With the political polarization in Congress in recent years, laws related to low
carbon governance are complicated to pass in Congress, which forces the fed-
eral government to manage in an almost legal vacuum, playing a limited role in
low carbon governance (Fiorino & Weted, 2020). Moreover, due to the decen-
tralization of power and responsibilities, state and local governments play a more
significant driving role in low carbon governance (Gilmore & St. Clair, 2018).
Because of the lack of federal financial support, however, states have suffered
from a shortage of funds for climate change mitigation. In most states, low carbon
governance expenditures are less than 1% of total budget expenditures (Gilmore
& St. Clair, 2018). Consequently, state governments have turned their attention to
market-based policy systems that are efficient in low carbon governance and can
bring enormous economic benefits.
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National stances and governance systems: a comparative study… 229
Over the last decades, nongovernmental climate governance activities in the United
States have increased sharply. Many ENGOs are actively involved in climate change
mitigation. In addition to providing technical assistance, these ENGOs lead the leg-
islative process and influence the national agenda to some extent. For example, the
Environmental Defense Fund (EFD) helped the state of California develop legisla-
tion on GHG economy-wide caps, which has been instrumental in promoting the use
of clean energy and reducing carbon emissions. In addition, some active ENGOs,
such as Earth Justice and 350.Org, use public protests and the media to pressure
politicians on specific climate policies and initiate lawsuits to enforce national low
carbon policies (Gong et al., 2020).
The general public tends to exhibit characteristics of high support for action but
little concern for climate change in general (Harrison, 2010). Nevertheless, in some
states with a high level of physical vulnerability, the public is more concerned about
climate issues, and the common concern in the population can push state govern-
ments to adopt climate policy (Basseches et al., 2022).
According to CAT’s most recent assessment of the US in August 2022,2 the current
low carbon policies and actions of the US will allow its carbon emissions to reach
4.7 to 5.6 Gt C O2 by 2030, which is approximately 12–35% higher than the NDC.
However, after taking office, Biden signed a series of acts related to low carbon gov-
ernance and implemented many clean energy projects (including solar panels, wind
turbines, batteries, and electric vehicles), arguably the most ambitious and poten-
tially influential climate policies in US history. However, due to the high degree of
uncertainty, CAT’s assessment remains “insufficient".
As the largest annual emitter in the world currently, China is also a developing coun-
try on the rise and faces problems such as the poor quality of people’s lives and
unbalanced development across regions (Wang & Tan, 2018). Therefore, developing
the economy and improving people’s lives are also core issues China must face. All
of these, however, did not stop China from gradually adopting a proactive approach
to climate issues (Li & Wang, 2012). In recent years, China’s rapid success in limit-
ing carbon emissions has surprised many observers (Engels, 2018). As a key partici-
pant in international climate cooperation, China has built a low carbon governance
system with characteristics based on the national institutional logic (Teng & Wang,
2021).
2
https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/usa/.
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230 R. Tan, Y. Zhu
Since the reform and opening-up, the economy of China has been growing at high
speed. While hundreds of millions of people were lifted out of poverty, issues of
environmental degradation, air pollution, and climate change were slowly revealed,
which put the government of China under enormous reputational pressure domesti-
cally and internationally. However, during this period, low carbon governance was
contradictory to the goal of achieving national economic prosperity within the con-
text of extensive growth (Tan et al., 2021). The importance of the environment gave
way to the urgent need for economic development (Hilton & Kerr, 2017). Thus, the
mitigation targets in China were considered too conservative at the time.
The new twist came in 2011 when China released the 12th Five-Year Plan. This
plan emphasized using various means, such as adjusting industrial and energy struc-
tures and improving energy efficiency, to reduce energy consumption and carbon
dioxide emission intensity. Since then, systemic changes in industrial development
have allowed China to gain rising competitiveness in the new energy industry. By
the time of the Paris climate summit in 2015, the fruits of the economic transforma-
tion had begun to emerge (Hilton & Kerr, 2017). In 2015, China submitted its first
NDC document to the UNFCCC Secretariat, setting an emissions reduction target of
peaking CO2 emissions by approximately 2030 and achieving a 60–65% reduction in
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP compared to 2005 (NDC of China, 2015). The target
was further updated in 2021, with China proposing to reduce C O2 emissions per unit
of GDP by more than 65% in 2030 compared to 2005. At the 75th session of the
General Assembly of the United Nations, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced
the goal of peaking CO2 emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060.
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National stances and governance systems: a comparative study… 231
National
Level
Provincial
Level Department of Provincial Development
Environment and and Reform
Ecology Commission
Municipal Government
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232 R. Tan, Y. Zhu
5.3 The interaction between the government, market, and society in the low
carbon governance of China
The market mechanism has a crucial driving effect on the low-carbon transition of
China. By stimulating the market mechanism, enterprises can eliminate the dilemma
of path dependence and are motivated to put clear and compelling energy into
research and development (Zhang et al., 2020). Moreover, the establishment of car-
bon markets has shifted some of the responsibility for low carbon governance from
local governments to verification companies and emitters, so that the role of local
government can be more focused (Zhang et al., 2020; Xiong et al., 2018).
In 2011, the 12th Five-Year Plan proposed gradually establishing a carbon emis-
sion market and chose the Emissions Trading System as the starting point of the
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National stances and governance systems: a comparative study… 233
According to the most recent CAT assessment of China in November 2022,3 China
is likely to surpass its NDC targets related to energy and carbon reduction under the
3
https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china/.
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234 R. Tan, Y. Zhu
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National stances and governance systems: a comparative study… 235
made advancing sustainable development one of its governing priorities under its
long-term strategy.
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236 R. Tan, Y. Zhu
The choices of governance instruments for climate are related to the heterogeneity of
the governance system, which is reflected in interaction relationships between the gov-
ernment, market, and society across countries.
Because of the substantial institutional costs of binding administrative policies, all
three countries choose to incorporate market mechanisms into low carbon governance.
Nonetheless, the differences in government systems result in different market character-
istics of each country (Liu et al., 2023). EU membership gives Germany great advan-
tages, as it joined the European Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS) early and can
be considered a pioneer in exploring the carbon emissions trading system. Undoubt-
edly, the market system has played an essential driving role in low carbon governance
in Germany. As a cautious beginner, China established the national carbon emission
market in 2021 after 8 years of piloting. Although it has been established for a short
time, the carbon trading market has also gradually become one of the core policy tools
for China to achieve its low carbon governance target. Unlike China or Germany, the
absence of central administrative guidelines leave the US without a national-level car-
bon emission market system. Driven by some state governments concerned about cli-
mate, a few state-based markets have been established spontaneously, which play an
essential role in US climate governance.
In terms of the interaction between society and government, public opinion has the
most significant influence in Germany, which is due to the German political system.
The coalition government system and the integration of green parties into departments
give the shared value of climate protection in society immense influence on govern-
ment policy-making. The US is also built on the electoral system. However, high politi-
cal contributions make the federal government strongly influenced by the will of inter-
est groups, such that it shows proportionally less concern about the public’s opinion.
In China, the influence of citizens on the government is mainly reflected in the self-
imposed demands for achieving sustainable development goals (SDGs) at the national
level. Given China’s institutional structure and stage of development, the value of
climate protection is more likely to be disseminated from the government to the pub-
lic, such as the eco-friendly slogan “Green mountains are golden mountains” used to
reduce resistance to implementing low carbon policies.
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National stances and governance systems: a comparative study… 237
7 Conclusion
13
238
13
Table 1 Comparison of the low carbon governance systems among the three countries
Items Germany The United States China
National stances (1) First-mover advantages in renewable (1) Vested interest in fossil energy (1) Leader in renewable energy production
energy (2) Under reputational pressure with limited (2) Under reputational pressure as the largest
(2) Under reputational pressure as the forerun- influence annual emitter
ner (3) Lack of value orientation in society (3) Top–down climate protection value guid-
(3) Strong value orientation in society (4) Relatively low physical vulnerability ance
(4) High physical vulnerability (4) High ecological vulnerability
Vertical structure (1) Well-established legal and institutional (1) Lack of legislation or stable institution in (1) Well-established legal and institutional
system in the federal government the federal government system in the central government
(2) Consensus reached on climate governance (2) High heterogeneity in climate governance (2) Top–down administrative constraints and
with significant autonomy of state govern- with significant autonomy of state govern- monitoring from central to local governments
ments ments
Interaction of govern- (1) EU-ETS and national market for carbon (1) Some state-based markets for carbon (1) Province-based pilots and national market
ment, market, and emission as a supplement emission for carbon emissions
society (2) Consensus on the value of climate govern- (2) Lack of concern about climate change in (2) Mainly reflect on the government-imposed
ance in society, which can significantly society requirement for sustainable development
influence government decisions
Action and performance Almost sufficient Insufficient Insufficient
R. Tan, Y. Zhu
National stances and governance systems: a comparative study… 239
more prominent voice in low carbon governance, and the federal government may
implement low carbon policies smoothly. The US is a two-party state with severe
partisan political rivalry. There is considerable heterogeneity in the acceptance of
climate policies among states due to different political parties. Therefore, low car-
bon policies must face significant resistance in their establishment and implementa-
tion. Compared to Germany and the US, China relies on top–down, binding policies
at the national level for low carbon governance. However, this approach faces high
institutional costs due to misrepresentation and collusion among local governments,
so China has introduced the market mechanism as a compliment.
Finally, the comparative analysis reveals that a combination of highly complex
factors influences domestic low carbon governance actions. To further promote
global low carbon governance, it is necessary to establish a shared value system
for climate protection. Moreover, given the high cost and complexity of national
top–down climate governance, in addition to providing more incentives in terms of
reputation and economics, international efforts should pay more attention to non-
state stakeholders. Multiple actors, such as local governments, enterprises, the pub-
lic, and scientific institutions, need to be included in global climate governance.
Funding This research was supported by The National Key R&D Program "Research on Sustainable
Transformation Models in Response to Global Changes", funded by the Ministry of Science and Technol-
ogy (No. 2020YFA0608600 Project).
Data availability This paper does not analyse data or undertake quantitative research and is unable to
provide data avaliability statement.
Declarations
Conflict of interest The authors claim that there is no conflict of interest in this article.
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