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Pertemuan 10
Pertemuan 10
• Tsunami
• What will be the ground shaking intensity at the site produced by earthquakes
of different size, focal depth, and epicentral location?
• How will the ground motion be influenced by local soil conditions and geology?
• What will be the earthquake hazard (landslide, liquefacion, etc) produced at the
site?
• How about the susceptinility of buildings and structures to damage from the
ground shaking and ground failures?
Lack of
Resources for
Communities
Population
Natural or
Manmade Inappropriate Urbanization
Built and Unplanned
Phenomena Environment development
Risk
• Moreover, of all the seismic hazard, ground motion is the predominant cause
of damage from earthquakes ; building collapses, dam failures, landslides,
and liquefactions are all the direct result of ground motion.
PGA
Exposure time
980 gals = 1 G
Seismic source
Attenuation
Function
• Selection of attenuation function should consider relevant geology and tectonic condition of
site, these are recommended attenuation functions based on seismic source:
1. Interface Subduction (Megathrust) :
a) Geomatrix subduction (Youngs et al., SRL, 1997)
b) Atkinson-Boore BC rock and global source subduction. (Atkinson & Boore, 2003)
c) Zhao et al., with variable Vs-30. (Zhao et al., 2006)
2. Shallow crustal, fault and shallow background:
a) Boore-Atkinson NGA. (Boore & Atkinson, 2008)
b) Campbell-Bozorgnia NGA. (Campbell & Bozorgnia, 2008)
c) Chiou-Youngs NGA. (Chiou & Youngs, 2008)
3. Benioff (deep intraslab) :
a) Atkinson-Boore intraslab seismicity world data BC-rock condition. (Atkinson-Boore, 1995)
b) Geomatrix slab seismicity rock, 1997 srl. July 25 2006. (Youngs et al., 1997)
c) Atkinson-Boore 2003 intraslab seismicity worldwide data region BC-rock condition. (Atkinson-
Boore, Wordwide 2003)
Subduction Sources – Megathrust
Geometry, Mmax, Slip-Rate, a-b value
Seismic Catalogue
Range: 10˚LU - 12˚LS dan l 90˚BT - 145˚BT
Source:
1. Nasional Earthquake Information Center U.S. Geological Survey
(NEIC-USGS); the Preliminary Determination of Epicenters (PDE),
the Bureau Central International de Seismologie (BCIS),
International Seimological Summeries (ISS), International
Seimological Center (ISC), Advance National Seismic System (ANSS-
USGS); Centennial (elocated); Relocation Cataloque (Engdahl,
1964-2005).
2. Indonesian Berau of Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics
(BMKG).
3. Abe, Abe & Noguchi dan Gutenberg & Richter,
Seismic Catalogue Map
Probabilitistic vs. Deterministic
• DSHA considers the effect at a site of either single scenario
earthquake, or a relatively small number of individual earthquakes.
Challenge the selection of a representative earthquake on which
the hazard assessment would be based.
+ Fragility
in 1968.
• The map was later on used as a basis for developing the US seismic
• The analysis procedure is currently widely accepted and used all over
the world.
Global Seismic Hazard Map
http://seismo.ethz.ch/gshap/
Peak Ground Acceleration of Indonesia for 50 years
Return Periods
https://pgacal.pusair-pu.go.id/
Peak Ground Acceleration of Indonesia for 100 years
Return Periods
https://pgacal.pusair-pu.go.id/
Peak Ground Acceleration of Indonesia for 200 years
Return Periods
https://pgacal.pusair-pu.go.id/
Peak Ground Acceleration of Indonesia for 500 years
Return Periods
https://pgacal.pusair-pu.go.id/
Peak Ground Acceleration of Indonesia for 1000 years
Return Periods
https://pgacal.pusair-pu.go.id/
Peak Ground Acceleration of Indonesia for 2500 years
Return Periods
https://pgacal.pusair-pu.go.id/
Peak Ground Acceleration of Indonesia for 10000
years Return Periods
https://pgacal.pusair-pu.go.id/
Key Assumptions in Calculating Probabilistic
Ground Motions
1) Earthquakes occur within the defined seismic source zones or along the defined
active faults.
2) Within each defined sesimic source zone (or active fault), earthquakes occur randomly
at any location with an equal chance (probability)
3) Within each defined seismic source zone (or active fault), earthquakes randomly occur
in time, in which the average rate occurence is defined by it’s magnitude-recurrence
relation. This random occurrence in time is modeled as a Possion process.
5) In any earthquake event, the ground motion parameter (e.g. PGA, SA) at the site of
interest can be estimated from the earthquake magnitude, source-so-site distance, and
other earthquake parameters by using the selected attenuation relationship.
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Normal Distribution
-~ +~
Value
Number of events
Magnitude
Mmin Mmax
PSHA Procedure
Selection of site(s)
Identification of all critical tectonic features (e.g. Active faults,
seismic source zones) likely to generate significant
earthquakes-seismic sources
Defining the seismicity of these seismic sources
Selection of a suitable attenuation relationship – an
equation that estimates ground-motion parameters from
earthquake magnitude and source-to-site distance for
various site conditions
Computation of the ground motion parameters at the site
PSHA Procedure - Objective
Source B Source C
site
Probability of Exceedance
PGA x%
0,15 g (PE in y years)
Hazard Curve
• Defining the
seismicity of these
seismic sources
• Selection of
appropriate ground-
motion prediction
equations (GMPEs)
• Determining of
Probabilties of
Exceedance (Hazard
Curve)
SEISMIC HAZARD
ASSESSMENT
Part 3 : Simplified (PSHA) – an Example
Simplified PSHA – an Example
Simplified PSHA – an Example
To demonstrate on how probabilistic ground motion is estimated, a simplified
calculation of probabilistic ground motion is presented as follows :
Let’s consider a simple case where only one seismic source (A) is located near
the site of interest (P) :
RAP
A P
Site
0,10 g.
Seismic Source
M = 6.6
According to the selected attenuation
relationship, earthquakes with magnitude
greater than 6. will produce PGA at the
site equal to or greater than 0,10 g
30 km
Simplified PSHA
According to the magnitude-
recurrence rate of earthquakes
with M > 6.6 = N(M=6.6) = 0,007
event per year
In the other words, the return period for PGA > 0,10 M=6.6
Time, year
A P
Site
Seismic Source
RCP = 28 km
SA
Probabilistic 2500 yrs
Jarak
Sesar Semangko
PROBABILISTIC GROUND MOTIONS
IN EARTHQUAKE-RESISTANT
DESIGN OF BUILDINGS
Different Forms of Hazard Curves
DBE = 10% PE in
Rate of 50 yrs
Probability of
Annual Rate of Exceedance in Exceedance in
MCE = 2% PE in
50 years 50 yrs
Exceedance 50 years
Max. considered
2%
• This MCE is the strongest earthquake shaking level that could occur in the
region of a dam, and is considered to have a return period of several
thousand years (typically 10.000 years in regions of low to moderate
seismicity)
• PGV, Peak Ground Velocity, is a good index to hazard to taller buildings. However,
it’s not clear how to relate velocity to force in order to design a taller building.
Construction
of Response
Spectra
(for Past
Earthquakes)
0.0004 0.02 2%
Construction of Uniform
Hazard Spectra (UHS)
(for Design against
Future Earthquakes)
SS and S1 in Building Codes
Uniform Hazard Spectrum (DBE or MCE level)
SS
SM1 = Fv S1
T
0.2 1.0
T0= 0.2 Ts
Fa Fv
SS
Spectral Acceleration
Spectra at Bedrock SB
Soil Type
S1
SS S1
T
0.2 1.0 Bedrock SB
Amplification Factor Fa & Fv
Faktor amplifikasi untuk periode 0,2 detik (Fa) berdasarkan SNI 1726:2012
SS
Klasifikasi Site
Ss ≤ 0,25 Ss = 0,5 Ss= 0,75 Ss = 1,0 Ss ≥ 1,25
Batuan Keras (SA) 0,8 0,8 0,8 0,8 0,8
Batuan (SB) 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0
Tanah Sangat Padat dan Batuan
1,2 1,2 1,1 1,0 1,0
Lunak (SC)
Tanah Sedang (SD) 1,6 1,4 1,2 1,1 1,0
Tanah Lunak (SE) 2,5 1,7 1,2 0,9 0,9
Tanah Khusus (SF) SS SS SS SS SS
Faktor amplifikasi untuk periode 1,0 detik (Fv) berdasarkan SNI 1726:2012
S1
Klasifikasi Site
S1 ≤ 0,1 S1 = 0,2 S1 = 0,3 S1 =0,4 S1 ≥ 0,5
Batuan Keras (SA) 0,8 0,8 0,8 0,8 0,8
Batuan (SB) 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0
Tanah Sangat Padat dan Batuan
1,7 1,6 1,5 1,4 1,3
Lunak (SC)
Tanah Sedang (SD) 2,4 2,0 1,8 1,6 1,5
Tanah Lunak (SE) 3,5 3,2 2,8 2,4 2,4
Tanah Khusus (SF) SS SS SS SS SS
DEAGGREGATION OF
SEISMIC HAZARD
Deaggregation of Seismic Hazard
• The hazard curve gives the combined effect of all the seismic sources,
magnitudes and distances on the probability of exceeding a given ground
motion level.
• Since all of the sources, magnitudes, and distances are mixed together, it’s
difficult to get an intuitive understanding of what is controlling the hazard from
the hazard curve by itself.
• To provide insight into what events are the most important for the hazard at a
given ground motion level, the hazard curve is broken down into it’s
constributions from different earthquake scenarios.
From M & R, we can make synthetic ground motion for time history structural
equation.
Dynamic Analysis
1. Response Spectrum
2. Time History
0.014
5.0-5.5
5.5-6.0 0.012
Contribution to Hazard
6.0-6.5
0.010
6.5-7.0
7.0-7.5
0.008
7.5-8.0
8.5-9.0 0.006
0.004
285
0.002
245
205
165
125
Dista 0.000
n ce (k
85
m )
8.5-9.0
45
7.0-7.5
6.0-6.5
5.0-5.5
5
ude
Magnit
U
M3 dan R3 mewakili sumber 3
M
Sumber 2
AL
Sumber 3 M3=7.2 R3=70 km
AY
Medan
De-Agregasi
SI
A
De-Agregasi
Sumber 1
De-Agregasi
SAMUDERA
INDONESIA BENGKULU
M2 dan R2 mewakili sumber 2
1914,2000
(I=VIII)
M2=7.5 R2=150 km
Sumber: Puslitbang Geologi
Deaggregation of Seismic Hazard of Indonesia, mean
source (Asrurifak et al, 2012)
For Magnitude
Deaggregation of Seismic Hazard of Indonesia, mean
source (Asrurifak et al, 2012)
For Distance
SYNTHETIC GROUND
MOTION
Scaled Acceleration
Synthetic Ground Motion
• To analysis time history dynamic analysis, we need acceleration data or ground
motion.
• Sometime, we can obtain recorded ground motion that relevant to our cases
2. Select, ground motion from database that suitable to site seismic source, magnitude and distance.
And conduct analysis to obtain spectra from that ground motion.
4. Do scaling for obtained spectra ground motion to response spectra of attenuation function, the
result is synthetic ground motion that we can use for dynamic analysis
Masyhur Irsyam – Dinamika Tanah & Rekayasa Gempa
De-Agregasi
Mencari record ground motion
yg nilai M dan R nya dekat dng M1 dan R1
M1 dan R1
mewakili sumber 1 Dng M1 dan R1, masuk rumus atenuasi
akan didapat Response Spektra M1-R1
M1 dan R1
mewakili sumber 1
Dng M1 dan R1, masuk rumus atenuasi
akan didapat Response Spektra M1-R1
M2 dan R2
mewakili sumber 2
Dng M2 dan R2, masuk rumus atenuasi
akan didapat Response Spektra M2-R2
M3 dan R3
mewakili sumber 3
Dng M3 dan R3, masuk rumus atenuasi
akan didapat Response Spektra M3-R3
Selection of Input Ground Motion
Ground
Surface
Bedrock 0.317
0.15
0.1 Scaled Acceleration
S p e c tra l A c c e le ra tio n (g )
1.000 0.05
0
-0.05
0.800 -0.1
-0.15
-0.2
0.400
0.317
0.200
0.15
0.000 0.1
0.05
Scaled Acceleration
0
0.010 0.100 1.000 10.000 -0.05
-0.1
-0.15
Period (sec) -0.2
Hasil De-Agregasi
1.200
Spectral Acceleration (g)
Spectra Percepatan (g)
1.000
Gabungan seluruh sumber
0.800
0.600
0.400
0.200
Perioda (Detik)
0.000
0.010 0.100 1.000
Un-Scaled Spectra for RP of 500 years
Spectra Acceleration (g)
Sumber Gabungan
sumber 1
M1=8.2 R1=200 km
sumber 2
M2=8.0 R2=180 km
sumber 3
M3=7.3 R3=65 km
Perioda (sec)
Scaled Spectra at T=0.2 sec for RP of 500
years
1.800
1.600
1.400
1.200
Spectral Acceleration (g)
1.000
0.800
0.600
0.400
0.200
0.000
0.010 0.100 1.000 10.000
Period (Second)
S p e c tra l A c c e le ra tio n (g )
1.000
Data asli Kern County
0.3 0.800
0.2
Acceleration (g)
0.1 0.600
0
-0.1
0.400
-0.2 0.317
-0.3
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0.200
Time (sec)
0.000
0.010 0.100 1.000 10.000
Period (sec)
Spectral Matching
Scaled Acceleration