Application of Fuzzy Control Based on Time Series
Prediction Algorithm in Main
Steam Temperature System
Lv Zhengxin
Engineering Research Center of Power Generation Simulation and
Optimization Control of Hebei Province,
North China Electric Power University, Baoding
Baoding,China
1985607637@qq.com
Abstract—The stability of main steam temperature in thermal
power plants is especially important for boiler operation.
Conventional PID has poor control effect on large delay targets
of main steam temperature system in thermal power plants. It is
difficult to achieve satisfactory control results. In view of this
situation, a PID-based fuzzy controller based on the time series
prediction algorithm was designed. The time series algorithm can
predict the main steam temperature at the next moment and
calculate the input value of the PID fuzzy controller according to
the predicted value. The fuzzy control that has the leading
characteristic and the regulator advances to reduce the overshoot
and adjustment time obviously. The BP neural network algorithm
is used to correct the prediction results of the time series
algorithm, which makes the algorithm more stable and safe.The
simulation and experimental results show that the control effect
is significantly better, indicating that this is an effective
improvement method, which is obviously superior to the
traditional PID control and PID-type fuzzy control.
Keywords—PID fuzzy control,time series algorithm,main
steam temperature systemˈBP neural network
I. INTRODUCTION
The main steam temperature of a power plant boiler is
one of the most important indicators of boiler operation
quality. If the temperature of the main steam is too high, the
high pressure part of the steam turbine and the superheated
steam pipeline may be damaged ; if the temperature of the
main steam is too low, the heat loss of the power plant will
increase and the internal efficiency of the steam turbine will
be reduced. It will increase the erosion of the blade,too.
Therefore, the boiler must keep the superheated steam
temperature stable near the specified value [1-3]. Most power
plants use conventional PID controllers to control the main
steam temperature.The setting of conventional PID
parameters depends on the extensive experience of
technicians. The steam temperature adjustment process is a
typical large-delay thermal process, and the controlled object
is multi capacity. In the large inertial system, the controlled
system has serious nonlinear and time-varying
characteristics, and there are many disturbance factors
affecting the steam temperature change. Therefore, it is
difficult to ensure the main steam temperature regulation
quality [4-5] with conventional PID. The control of main
steam temperature is a difficult point in the process control
of power plants and is also a research hotspot. In [6], the
empire competition algorithm was used to simulate and
optimize the main steam temperature cascade control
978-1-7281-1312-8/18/$31.00 ©2018 IEEE
Zhang Yue
Engineering Research Center of Power Generation Simulation and
Optimization Control of Hebei Province,
North China Electric Power University, Baoding
Baoding,China
zhyhot_zhyhot@sina.com
strategy;in [7], a modelless adaptive predictive controller
was designed to control the main steam temperature; [8]
proposed a Reverse Transmission Strategy Cascaded System
Networked Predictive Control Method. However, due to its
complex algorithm, these three algorithms have great
difficulty in industrial implementation.
Fuzzy control has been widely used in the main steam
temperature control of thermal power plant boilers because it
does not need to know the model of the controlled object, has
strong anti-interference ability and strong robustness[9-11].
There is a steady-state deviation in control, so it cannot be
used alone in a system that requires high control accuracy.
[12] proposed a PID-type fuzzy control and introduced an
integral link based on the traditional PD-type fuzzy control to
eliminate the steady-state deviation. [13] and [14] use fuzzy
control tuning based on the Smith predictor PID control
parameters, making the control with leading characteristics,
but the Smith forecast has high precision for the controlled
object model, it is difficult to achieve the desired adjustment
quality.
In order to improve the control quality of fuzzy control, a
fuzzy control method based on time series algorithm is
proposed. Combining time series algorithm and PID type
fuzzy control algorithm, the real time steam temperature
value is used to predict the next time in the control process.
The steam temperature value makes the regulator operate in
advance to achieve the purpose of advanced adjustment and
improve the quality of regulation. The BP neural network
algorithm is used to correct the predicted value of the time
series algorithm, which makes the algorithm more stable and
safe.The time series algorithm has the feature of
acknowledging autocorrelation and dependence among the
sample data [15]-[17]. The dynamic model of the algorithm
has higher accuracy in main steam temperature prediction.
Simulation and experimental results show that this method
has the advantages of small overshoot, fast response, and
good robustness.
II. FUZZY CONTROL BASED ON TIME SERIES ALGORITHM
A. The principle of time series algorithm
A time series is an ordered sequence of observations,
usually observed in time, where the intervals can be equally
spaced or unequally spaced. In time series analysis, there are
multiple analysis methods for stationary time series,
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including AR model (autoregressive model), MA model
(moving average model), ARMA model (autoregressive
moving average model), if the time series Y t satisfy喈1喉
Yt = ȕ1Yt - 1 + ȕ 2Yt - 2 + … + ȕpYt - p + ε t +
(1)
α1ε t −1 + α 2ε t − 2 + … + α qε t − q
Since the time series of actual data is non-stationary,
it can be viewed as approximately stationary after
eliminating its local level or trend. For data sequences xt
Assume that after making a difference, the items in the
first difference sequence recorded are 䕱xt ,then

And the time series Y t in order to obey the ARMA (p, q) 䕱xt = xt − xt −1 (2)
order autoregressive moving average mixed model. ε t is a The items in the secondary difference sequence are
white noise sequence. Y t is related with its previous 䕱2 xt =䕱xt −䕱xt −1 (3)
response Yt −1 , Yt − 2 …, and at the same time related with its Similarly, high-order difference is
previous moment into the system ε t ε t −1 … .If β p =0, the
䕱d xt =䕱d -1 xt −䕱d-1 xt −1 (4)
time series is expressed as obeying the q-order MA model
Different derivation function equations can be fitted
(moving average model). If α q =0, the time series is called for different models, and the order of the equation is the
the p-order AR model (autoregressive model). According to number of items in the known time series used in the
the autocorrelation coefficie ρ k Partial correlation equation. The method used this time is the criterion
function order method. That is, the AIC criterion function
coefficient ϕ kk hypothesis testing was performed to
of the established model is calculated, and under the
determine the truncation and smearability.Tab.1 was used to model established by the optimal model order, the value
determine the type of model.[18] of the criterion function calculated using the studied time
Table 1 Model judgment table series data can be minimized to find an appropriate order.
model AR(p) MA(q) ARMA( Modeling. The AIC function of the ARMA(p,q) model is:
p,q) AIC=-21n (maximized log-likelihood) +2(number of
Autocorrelation Trailin parameters to be estimated) (5)
Censored Trailing
coefficient g
For the fitted function equations, the Ljung-Box
Partial method was used to test the sequence independence,
Censor
correlation Trailing Trailing thereby discriminating the rationality of the model
ed
coefficient setting.
The process of establishing an ARMA model can be
represented in fig.1: B. PID fuzzy control algorithm
The two-dimensional fuzzy controller takes the
variation between the adjusted value and the set value as
the input variable, as the PD type fuzzy controller. Since
the adjustment effect of the algorithm has a static
difference,the integral action is added to eliminate the
static error. This time using the fuzzy controller with
integral action shown in fig. 2:
Deviation of the controlled quantity set value R and
actual value y, and the rate of change of deviation e for
the input of the fuzzy controller, the output of the fuzzy
controller is obtained after the fuzzy processing, the
fuzzy control algorithm, and the non-fuzzy processing in
sequence, and the sum of the integral actions of the
deviation e is used as the total controller output to control
the controlled variable. In the fuzzy control process,
seven fuzzy language values {NB, NM, NS, ZO, PS, PM,
PB} are used, and the membership functions of the
fuzzification process are shown in fig. 3 and fig.4 ;

Figure 2 PID fuzzy control block diagram

W üüFuzzy controller
G (s ) ü ü Control object transfer function
Figure 1 ARMA model establishment flow chart

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 en = en − en −1 (12)

ei − 3 ei − 2 ei −1 e i ei +1 ei + 2 ei + 3 
Figure 3 The deviation e membership
function
Figure 5 Fuzzy Control Diagram Based
on Time Series Algorithm
W 1 üüFuzzy controller
W 2 üüTime series algorithm estimation
G ( s ) üüControl object transfer function
ei −3 ei −2 ei −1 e i ei +1 ei+ 2 ei +3 
Figure 4 The membership function of the rate of change of the deviation e D. Correction of prediction results based on BP neural
network algorithm
Table 2 fuzzy rules control table
The BP neural network, also known as the
backpropagation neural network, continuously corrects
the network weights and thresholds by training the
sample data, so that the error function falls in the
direction of the negative gradient and approaches the
expected output.
The BP network consists of an input layer, a hidden
 layer and an output layer. The hidden layer may have one
The fuzzy control algorithm rule can use (6): or more layers. The network uses an S-type transfer
function, as shown in (13); the reverse transmission error
If e is Ai and e is Bj then u is uij ( 6) function is shown in (14).
The control strategy is summarized as Tab.2
1
    f ( x) =
The weighted average method is used in the process 1 + e−x
of non-fuzzy, as shown in formula 7 ¦i (ti + Oi ) 2
μ (ω ) × ω j   (7) E =   
μ=¦ c j 2
¦ μc (ω j ) ti is the expected output,and Oi is the calculation
ω j with μ c (ω j ) the centroids and corresponding output of the network, and constantly adjusts the network
membership values of the symmetry membership weight and threshold to make the error function E 
functions are represented separately. extremely small.
C. Fuzzy Controller Based on Time Series Algorithm The time series algorithm is used to estimate the
deviation between the main steam temperature value and
PID type fuzzy control fuzzy controller has two input the actual main steam temperature value. If the deviation
deviations e and deviation rate of change e ,while R is is greater than 0.1%, the BP neural network algorithm is
the set value of the control object and y is the actual used for estimation. Because the BP neural network
value of the control object. en is the amount of deviation algorithm is more complicated, the controller is
calculated for a long time. The capability requirements
at time n.
are higher, so they are only used as correction algorithms.
en = Rn − yn (8) 
III. MAIN STEAM TEMPERATURE ESTIMATION
en = en − en −1 (9)
As shown in Fig. 5, a time series algorithm is A. Estimating main steam temperature by time series
introduced on the basis of PID type fuzzy control, and algorithm
this algorithm is used to predict the next main steam In the operation of thermal power plants, there are
temperature value to calculate the deviation e and the rate many factors affecting the main steam temperature, such
of change of the deviation e ,and f n is the actual value of as unit load, desuperheated water flow, fuel volume, and
the next moment in order to use the time series algorithm so on. All the factors can be attributed to the four
to estimate of the controlled object, i is the number of categories. When the main steam temperature data
historical values used in the estimation. changes with time, it shows a tendency factor that
determines the trend; the main steam temperature data
f n = f ( yn−1 , yn − 2 " yn −i ) (10) changes according to the seasonal factors of a regular
cycle; the main steam temperature data cycle is not fixed;
en = Rn − f n (11)

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irregular variations in the main steam temperature data.
The influence of these four factors on main steam
temperature is mainly irregular factors and trend factors
.[19]
Based on the statistical method of dynamic data
revealing the dynamic structure and regularity of the
system,the time series builds a mathematical model that
can accurately reflect the dynamic dependency included
in the sequence based on the limited-length operational
records of the system, and uses this to predict the future
of the system. Although the factors that influence the Figure 6 Main steam temperature and
load actual data
development of phenomena cannot be explored, there is a
certain link between the results, which can be expressed
by a response model, especially in the phenomenon of
randomness. The moving average method can effectively
predict the trend factors. Therefore, the combination of
time series and moving average method can effectively
predict the main steam temperature.
From the 2nd unit of Huadian Weifang Power Plant,
the 60% load main steam temperature is selected for 
estimation. The sampling period is 5s. The actual data is Figure 7 Residual vector diagram
shown in Fig.6. Table 3 Analysis of ARMA (2,2)
NO. Predictive Actual
If the fitting data is too small, the precision of the error
value value
model will be affected, but the excessive calculation data 1 544.7648 544.7480 0.00587%
of the fitting data will be slow, which is not conducive to
the control of the main steam temperature. The first 11
data were used for fitting samples, and from the 12th data B. PID Correction of prediction results using BP neural
was used to estimate. For each estimate, data is first network algorithm
smoothed. The second-order differential data is used for
The three-layer BP network model is selected. The
the generalized smoothing. Enumerate p and q values and
model takes the unit load, the desuperheating water flow
use the AIC method for ordering. For different p and q
and the fuel quantity as input, and the main steam
values, corresponding to different AIC values, the one
temperature as the output. Therefore, the number of
with the smallest AIC value is selected for fitting. The
nodes in the input layer is 3, and the number of nodes in
fitting model is as follows:
the output layer is 1. Take the number of training samples
Discrete-time ARMA model: to 100, and use the actual data under the 60% load of the
unit to predict. The result is shown in Fig.8.
A(z)y(t) = C(z)e(t) (15)
A(z) = 1 + 0.9143 z^-1 + 0.01164 z^-2 (16)
C(z) = 1 - 0.1958 z^-1 - 0.6279 z^-2 (17)
Therefore, the established model is:
xt = -0.9143 × xt-1 - 0.01164 × xt- 2 -
(18)
0.1958 × xt-1 - 0.6279 × xt- 2
Figure 8 estimated result curve
Using the Ljung-Box method to test the sequence
independence, the residual vector diagram is shown in In Fig.8, the thin solid line is the actual value of the
Fig.7. main steam temperature, and the thick solid line is the
predicted value of the main steam temperature. It can be
In the Ljung-Box test, h=0, the pvalue is 0.9265, seen that the prediction using BP neural network
which is much higher than 0.05, which means that the algorithm can get a good prediction effect.
model fits significantly, indicating that the ARMA(2,2)
model is reasonable, and the model can be used to predict IV. SIMULATION RESULTS
the main steam temperature. The data is brought into
(18), and the prediction results are shown in Tab.3. A. PID Control Algorithm Simulation
From the error results in the table, it can be seen that Closed-loop identification is performed based on the
the ARMA (2,2) model has very little error in the actual data of the unit under 60% load. Firstly, the
prediction of main steam temperature. superheater leading and inert areas are identified. This
identification uses the particle swarm algorithm to
perform closed-loop identification, and takes the sampled
data as the input volume, and then passes through the

119
model G1 ( s ) . The model output is compared with the inlet
temperature of the superheater. The input temperature of
the sampled data superheater is used as the input, the
model output is obtained through the model G2 ( s) , and
the temperature at the outlet of the superheater is
compared. The parameters of G1 ( s ) and G2 ( s) to be
calibrated by the objective function value.
Due to the randomness of the particle swarm
algorithm, different results will be obtained each time the
program runs. After a number of identifications, the
group with the smallest variance is selected.[20]
Identify the lead area transfer function model is:
0.6493
G1 ( s) =
( 20.2832s + 1) 2
(19)
Identify the inert area transfer function model is:
1.2477  control effects and the controller output based on the time
G2 ( s ) = 2 series algorithm, the thin solid lines are the PID fuzzy
(73.0892s + 1)
(20)
The identified model is used as the controlled object,
and the particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to
optimize the parameters of the cascade PID master
controller and the secondary controller, giving a step
response of 5°C to the set value.
B. PID fuzzy control algorithm simulation
The actuator of the main steam temperature system is
a three-stage water-spray valve. Since the input of the
controller is calculated according to the deviation signal,
the output of the controller should also use the deviation,
that is, the valve opening is in the range of [0,100].
Internally, the largest universe of the output can therefore
be selected as [0,100]. The domain of the fuzzy controller
input deviation e is [-18,18], the domain of the rate of
change of the fuzzy controller input deviation de is [-0.5,
0.5], and the domain of the fuzzy controller output u is
[0,100]. The corresponding fuzzy quantity domains are
{NB, NM, NS, ZO, PS, PM, PB}, which are negative,
large, negative, negative, zero, positive, median, and
positive. Among them, the actual physical meaning of the
fuzzy domain of u is the water cooling valve {fullclosed,
semi-closed, slightly closed, fixed, slightly open, half-
open, fullopen}.
C. Comparison of Simulation Results
 control, Moreover, the BP neural network algorithm is
Figure 9 control effect response curve
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Figure 10 controller output curve
Figure 11 control effect deviation curve
The thick solid lines in Fig. 9and Fig. 10 are the fuzzy
control effects and the control output, and the dashed
lines are the PID control effects and the PID controller
output喌Fig.11 is the deviation curve of fuzzy control
and PID fuzzy control effect based on time series
algorithm. It can be seen from Fig.9 that the fuzzy
controller based on the time series algorithm is far less
overshoot than traditional PID control and PID fuzzy
control, and has a faster settling time. It can be stabilized
in about 170s, and the PID type The fuzzy control needs
about 300s to stabilize, and the traditional PID control
needs 600s to reach the stability. This shows that the
fuzzy control based on the time series algorithm has
safety and rapidity compared to the PID type fuzzy
control and the traditional PID control in the main steam
temperature control.
V. CONCLUSION
This paper proposes a fuzzy control method based on
time series algorithm, and applies this method to the
control of the main steam temperature system of a
thermal power plant. Through comparison with the
traditional PID control method and the PID fuzzy control
control performance, the conclusion is: Using the time
series algorithm to predict the main steam temperature
has higher precision, so the time series algorithm can be
used to predict the main steam temperature; the control
performance of the fuzzy control method based on the
time series algorithm proposed in this paper is obviously
better than the traditional PID control and PID Fuzzy
used to correct the prediction results, so that the control
of the main steam temperature system is more secure喌
because of the characteristics of the algorithm itself, can
be widely used in complex and variable nonlinear
systems in thermal power plants.
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