Time sales FB TV Radio Date

Week 1 22 230.1 37.8 69.2 1-1-2020

Week 2 10 44.5 39.3 45.1 1-2-2020
Week 3 9 17.2 45.9 69.3 1-3-2020
Week 4 19 151.5 41.3 58.5 1-4-2020
Week 5 13 180.8 10.8 58.4 1-5-2020
Week 6 7 8.7 48.9 75 1-6-2020
Week 7 12 57.5 32.8 23.5 1-7-2020
Week 8 13 120.2 19.6 11.6 1-8-2020
Week 9 5 8.6 2.1 1 1-9-2020
Week 10 11 199.8 2.6 21.2 1-10-2020
Week 11 9 66.1 5.8 24.2 1-11-2020
Week 12 17 214.7 24 4 1-12-2020
Week 13 9 23.8 35.1 65.9 1-13-2020
Week 14 10 97.5 7.6 7.2 1-14-2020
Week 15 19 204.1 32.9 46 1-15-2020
Week 16 22 195.4 47.7 52.9 1-16-2020
Week 17 13 67.8 36.6 114 1-17-2020
Week 18 24 281.4 39.6 55.8 1-18-2020
Week 19 11 69.2 20.5 18.3 1-19-2020
Week 20 15 147.3 23.9 19.1 1-20-2020
Week 21 18 218.4 27.7 53.4 1-21-2020
Week 22 13 237.4 5.1 23.5 1-22-2020
Week 23 6 13.2 15.9 49.6 1-23-2020
Week 24 16 228.3 16.9 26.2 1-24-2020
Week 25 10 62.3 12.6 18.3 1-25-2020
Week 26 12 262.9 3.5 19.5 1-26-2020
Week 27 15 142.9 29.3 12.6 1-27-2020
Week 28 16 240.1 16.7 22.9 1-28-2020
Week 29 19 248.8 27.1 22.9 1-29-2020
Week 30 11 70.6 16 40.8 1-30-2020
Input variables: FB, TV Radio
Output variable: Sales
Time sales FB TV Radio Date
Week 1 22 230.1 37.8 69.2 1-1-2020
Week 2 10 44.5 39.3 45.1 1-2-2020
Week 3 9 17.2 45.9 69.3 1-3-2020
Week 4 19 151.5 41.3 58.5 1-4-2020 30
Week 5 13 180.8 10.8 58.4 1-5-2020
25
Week 6 7 8.7 48.9 75 1-6-2020
Week 7 12 57.5 32.8 23.5 1-7-2020 20
Week 8 13 120.2 19.6 11.6 1-8-2020
15
Week 9 5 8.6 2.1 1 1-9-2020
Week 10 11 199.8 2.6 21.2 1-10-2020 10
Week 11 9 66.1 5.8 24.2 1-11-2020
5
Week 12 17 214.7 24 4 1-12-2020
Week 13 9 23.8 35.1 65.9 1-13-2020 0
1 3 5
Week 14 10 97.5 7.6 7.2 1-14-2020 k k k
ee ee ee
W W W
Week 15 19 204.1 32.9 46 1-15-2020
Week 16 22 195.4 47.7 52.9 1-16-2020
Week 17 13 67.8 36.6 114 1-17-2020
Week 18 24 281.4 39.6 55.8 1-18-2020 300
Week 19 11 69.2 20.5 18.3 1-19-2020
250
Week 20 15 147.3 23.9 19.1 1-20-2020
Week 21 18 218.4 27.7 53.4 1-21-2020 200

Week 22 13 237.4 5.1 23.5 1-22-2020 150

Week 23 6 13.2 15.9 49.6 1-23-2020 100
Week 24 16 228.3 16.9 26.2 1-24-2020
50
Week 25 10 62.3 12.6 18.3 1-25-2020
0
Week 26 12 262.9 3.5 19.5 1-26-2020 2 4 6
k k k
Week 27 15 142.9 29.3 12.6 1-27-2020 ee ee ee
W W W
Week 28 16 240.1 16.7 22.9 1-28-2020
Week 29 19 248.8 27.1 22.9 1-29-2020
Week 30 11 70.6 16 40.8 1-30-2020

FB TV Radio sales
230.1 37.8 69.2 22
44.5 39.3 45.1 10
17.2 45.9 69.3 9
151.5 41.3 58.5 19
180.8 10.8 58.4 13
8.7 48.9 75 7
57.5 32.8 23.5 12
120.2 19.6 11.6 13
8.6 2.1 1 5
199.8 2.6 21.2 11
 66.1 5.8 24.2 9
214.7 24 4 17
23.8 35.1 65.9 9
97.5 7.6 7.2 10
204.1 32.9 46 19
195.4 47.7 52.9 22
67.8 36.6 114 13
281.4 39.6 55.8 24
69.2 20.5 18.3 11
147.3 23.9 19.1 15
218.4 27.7 53.4 18
237.4 5.1 23.5 13
13.2 15.9 49.6 6
228.3 16.9 26.2 16
62.3 12.6 18.3 10
262.9 3.5 19.5 12
142.9 29.3 12.6 15
240.1 16.7 22.9 16
248.8 27.1 22.9 19
70.6 16 40.8 11

FB sales
230.1 22
44.5 10
17.2 9
151.5 19
180.8 13
8.7 7
57.5 12
120.2 13
8.6 5
 199.8 11
66.1 9
214.7 17
23.8 9
97.5 10
204.1 19
195.4 22
67.8 13
281.4 24 Chart Title
69.2 11 30
147.3 15
218.4 18 25

237.4 13 20
13.2 6 f(x) = 0.0437791369250176 x + 7.450653006252
f(x)
R² ==0.620492041288517
2.96792813683076 x^0.31670742031954

Sales
15
228.3 16 R² = 0.725170092361941
62.3 10 10
262.9 12 5
142.9 15
240.1 16 0
0 50 100 150 200 250
248.8 19
FB
70.6 11

TV sales
37.8 22
39.3 10
45.9 9
41.3 19
10.8 13
48.9 7
32.8 12
19.6 13
2.1 5
2.6 11
5.8 9
24 17
35.1 9
7.6 10
32.9 19
47.7 22 Chart Title
36.6 13 30
39.6 24
20.5 11 25

20

15
 Chart Title
30

25

23.9 15
20
27.7 18
5.1 13 15
15.9 6
16.9 16 10

12.6 10
5
3.5 12
29.3 15 0
0 10 20 30 40
16.7 16
27.1 19
16 11

Radio sales
69.2 22
45.1 10
69.3 9
58.5 19
58.4 13
75 7
23.5 12
11.6 13
1 5
21.2 11
24.2 9
4 17
65.9 9
7.2 10
46 19
52.9 22 Chart Title
114 13 30
55.8 24
18.3 11 25

19.1 15
20
53.4 18
23.5 13 15
49.6 6
26.2 16 10

18.3 10
5
19.5 12
12.6 15 0
0 20 40 60 80
22.9 16
22.9 19
40.8 11
 sales
30

25

20

15

10
300
5
250
0 200
k
1
k
3
k
5
k
7
k
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
ee ee ee ee ee e k e k e k e k e k e k e k e k e k e k

Sales
W W W W W e e e e e e e e e e 150
W W W W W W W W W W
100

FB TV and Radio 50
300
0
0
250

200

150

100
60
50

0 50
k
2
k
4
k
6
k
8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
ee ee ee ee e e k
e e k
e e k
e e k
e e k
e e k
e e k
e e k
e e k
e e k
e e k
W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W 40

FB TV Radio 30

TV
20

Chart Title 10

25 0
0
20

f(x) = 2.96792813683076 x^0.31670742031954

15
R² = 0.725170092361941
Sales

10 120

5 100

0 80
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Radio

FB 60

40
 10 120

5 100

0 80
0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Radio
FB 60

40

20
Chart Title
30 0
0
25

20

15
TV

f(x) = 6.91228513155231 x^0.204922822469303

10 R² = 0.215795585861307

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Sales

Chart Title
30

25

20
Radio

15
f(x) = 8.56739058165175 x^0.115245850623427
10 R² = 0.0826923791071887

0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Sales
le

450653006252
70742031954

0 200 250 300

Chart Title
 Chart Title

0 30 40 50 60

Chart Title

60 80 100 120
 sales FB TV Radio There is a strong relation between FB sepnding
sales 1 There is a moderate relation between TV sepnd
FB 0.79 1.00 There is a low relation between Radio sepnding
TV 0.42 -0.11 1.00
Radio 0.14 -0.16 0.65 1

FB
300

250

200
Sales

150

100

50

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30

FB

60

50

40

30
TV

20

10

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Sales

120

100

80
Radio

60

40
 120

100

80
Radio
60

40 f(x) = 4.45049900835327 x^0.717530207463967

R² = 0.0826923791071887
20

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Sales
 ation between FB sepnding and Sales
e relation between TV sepnding and Sales
on between Radio sepnding and Sales
Time sales FB TV Radio Date Sales
Week 1 22 230.1 37.8 69.2 1-1-2020 22.10
Week 2 10 44.5 39.3 45.1 1-2-2020 10.40
Week 3 9 17.2 45.9 69.3 1-3-2020 9.30
Week 4 19 151.5 41.3 58.5 1-4-2020 18.50
Week 5 13 180.8 10.8 58.4 1-5-2020 12.90
Week 6 7 8.7 48.9 75 1-6-2020 7.20
Week 7 12 57.5 32.8 23.5 1-7-2020 11.80
Week 8 13 120.2 19.6 11.6 1-8-2020 13.20
Week 9 5 8.6 2.1 1 1-9-2020 4.80
Week 10 11 199.8 2.6 21.2 1-10-2020 10.60
Week 11 9 66.1 5.8 24.2 1-11-2020 8.60
Week 12 17 214.7 24 4 1-12-2020 17.40
Week 13 9 23.8 35.1 65.9 1-13-2020 9.20
Week 14 10 97.5 7.6 7.2 1-14-2020 9.70
Week 15 19 204.1 32.9 46 1-15-2020 19.00
Week 16 22 195.4 47.7 52.9 1-16-2020 22.40
Week 17 13 67.8 36.6 114 1-17-2020 12.50
Week 18 24 281.4 39.6 55.8 1-18-2020 24.40
Week 19 11 69.2 20.5 18.3 1-19-2020 11.30
Week 20 15 147.3 23.9 19.1 1-20-2020 14.60
Week 21 18 218.4 27.7 53.4 1-21-2020 18.00
Week 22 13 237.4 5.1 23.5 1-22-2020 12.50
Week 23 6 13.2 15.9 49.6 1-23-2020 5.60
Week 24 16 228.3 16.9 26.2 1-24-2020 15.50
Week 25 10 62.3 12.6 18.3 1-25-2020 9.70
Week 26 12 262.9 3.5 19.5 1-26-2020 12.00
Week 27 15 142.9 29.3 12.6 1-27-2020 15.00
Week 28 16 240.1 16.7 22.9 1-28-2020 15.90
Week 29 19 248.8 27.1 22.9 1-29-2020 18.90
Week 30 11 70.6 16 40.8 1-30-2020 10.50

Simple model is not able to dicremenate the effect of advertisement spent on differ
error is almost similar for two models (with radio and without radio)
So, to find the effect of advertisement on different channels we apply Adstock trans
 This is a simple model

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9417361684
R Square 0.8868670109
Adjusted R Squ 0.8738132044
Standard Error 1.7592219016
Observations 30

ANOVA
df SS MS
Regression 3 630.78859583 210.26286528
Residual 26 80.466404173 3.094861699
Total 29 711.255

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat

Intercept 3.0103791681 0.8793297326 3.4234929816
FB 0.0463265484 0.0037134524 12.475331193
TV 0.1985692315 0.0298299185 6.6567138479
Radio -0.0188921873 0.0166573373 -1.1341661018
Exclude Radio as its p-value > 0.05, it is insignificant. Radio does not significan
Regression Model excluding Radio
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9387597303
R Square 0.8812698313
Adjusted R Squ 0.872475004
Standard Error 1.7685255014
Observations 30

ANOVA
df SS MS
Regression 2 626.80757388 313.40378694
Residual 27 84.447426122 3.127682449
Total 29 711.255

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat

Intercept 2.7567157596 0.8549082369 3.224575037
FB 0.0468265066 0.0037066951 12.632953571
TV 0.1768055069 0.0229593267 7.700814108
Fitted Regresison Model

Sales = 2.756 + 0.0468 * FB + 0.1768 * TV

 Predicted withPredicted withError radio Error no radio Radio TV
19.87 20.21 2.23 1.89 Coefficient -0.0188921873 0.1985692315
12.02 11.79 1.62 1.39 0.0166573373 0.0298299185
11.61 11.68 2.31 2.38 R^2 0.8868670109 1.7592219016
17.12 17.15 1.38 1.35 67.939341311 26
12.43 13.13 0.47 0.23 630.78859583 80.466404173
11.71 11.81 4.51 4.61 RMSE= 1.7592219016
11.74 11.25 0.06 0.55 Radio TV
12.25 11.85 0.95 1.35 Coefficient -0.0188921873 0.1985692315
3.81 3.53 0.99 1.27 0.0166573373 0.0298299185
12.38 12.57 1.78 1.97 R^2 0.8868670109 1.7592219016
6.77 6.88 1.83 1.72 67.939341311 26
17.65 17.05 0.25 0.35 SS 630.78859583 80.466404173
9.84 10.08 0.64 0.88 RMSE 1.7592219016
8.90 8.67 0.80 1.03
18.13 18.13 0.87 0.87 -0.0188921873 0.1985692315
20.53 20.34 1.87 2.06 0.0166573373 0.0298299185
11.27 12.40 1.23 0.10 0.8868670109 1.7592219016
22.86 22.94 1.54 1.46 67.939341311 26
9.94 9.62 1.36 1.68 630.78859583 80.466404173
14.22 13.88 0.38 0.72
17.62 17.88 0.38 0.12 Regression without Radio
14.58 14.78 2.08 2.28
5.84 6.19 0.24 0.59 SUMMARY OUTPUT
16.45 16.44 0.95 0.94
8.05 7.90 1.65 1.80 Regression Statistics
15.52 15.69 3.52 3.69 Multiple R 0.9387597303
15.21 14.63 0.21 0.37 R Square 0.8812698313
17.02 16.95 1.12 1.05 Adjusted R Squ 0.872475004
19.49 19.20 0.59 0.30 Standard Error 1.7685255014
8.69 8.89 1.81 1.61 Observations 30

Averages 1.32 1.35 ANOVA

df
Regression 2
ertisement spent on different channels as the average absolute
Residual 27
out radio)
ls we apply Adstock transofrmations Total 29

Coefficients
Intercept 2.7567157596
FB 0.0468265066
TV 0.1768055069
 Regression model without Radio
TV FB
Coefficients 0.1768055069 0.0468265066
0.0229593267 0.0037066951
0.8812698313 1.7685255014
100.20319903 27
626.80757388 84.447426122
1.7685255014

F Significance F
67.939341311 0.0000

P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

0.0020590047 1.2028910164 4.8178673197 1.2028910164 4.8178673197
0.00000 0.0386934377 0.0539596591 0.0386934377 0.0539596591
0.00000 0.1372529559 0.2598855071 0.1372529559 0.2598855071
0.26707 -0.0531318344 0.0153474599 -0.0531318344 0.0153474599
nt. Radio does not significantly affect Sales
Sales = 3.01 + 0.0463 * FB + 0.198 * TV - 0.0188 * Radio

F Significance F
100.20319903 3.210515E-13

P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

0.0032903381 1.0025889504 4.5108425689 1.0025889504 4.5108425689
0.0000000 0.0392209966 0.0544320167 0.0392209966 0.0544320167
0.0000000 0.1296968598 0.223914154 0.1296968598 0.223914154
FB Constant SUMMARY OUTPUT Intercept 3.0103791681
0.0463265484 3.0103791681 FB 0.0463265484
0.0037134524 0.8793297326 Regression Statistics TV 0.1985692315
#N/A #N/A Multiple R 0.9417361684 Radio -0.0188921873
#N/A #N/A R Square 0.8868670109
#N/A #N/A Adjusted R Squ 0.8738132044
Standard Error 1.7592219016 RMSE
FB constant Observations 30 H0: b1 = 0, b2 = 0, b3 = 0
0.0463265484 3.0103791681 H1: b1 ≠ 0, b2 ≠ 0, b3 ≠0
0.0037134524 0.8793297326 ANOVA
#N/A #N/A df SS MS
#N/A #N/A Regression 3 630.78859583 210.26286528
#N/A #N/A Residual 26 80.466404173 3.094861699
Total 29 711.255

0.0463265484 3.0103791681 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat

0.0037134524 0.8793297326 a Intercept 3.0103791681 0.8793297326 3.4234929816
#N/A #N/A b1 FB 0.0463265484 0.0037134524 12.475331193
#N/A #N/A b2 TV 0.1985692315 0.0298299185 6.6567138479
#N/A #N/A b3 Radio -0.0188921873 0.0166573373 -1.1341661018

sales = 3.01 + 0.046 FB + 0.1985 TV - 0.018 Radio

Since Radio expenses are not statistically significant, try running regression wit

SS MS F Significance F
626.80757388 313.40378694 100.20319903 3.210515E-13
84.447426122 3.127682449
711.255

Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
0.8549082369 3.224575037 0.0032903381 1.0025889504 4.5108425689 1.0025889504 4.5108425689
0.0037066951 12.632953571 7.586628E-13 0.0392209966 0.0544320167 0.0392209966 0.0544320167
0.0229593267 7.700814108 2.781116E-08 0.1296968598 0.223914154 0.1296968598 0.223914154
without Radio
Constant
2.7567157596
0.8549082369
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
b1 = 0, b2 = 0, b3 = 0
b1 ≠ 0, b2 ≠ 0, b3 ≠0

F Significance F
67.939341311 1.968783E-12

P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

0.0020590047 1.2028910164 4.8178673197 1.2028910164 4.8178673197
0.00000 0.0386934377 0.0539596591 0.0386934377 0.0539596591
0.00000 0.1372529559 0.2598855071 0.1372529559 0.2598855071
0.2670740684 -0.0531318344 0.0153474599 -0.0531318344 0.0153474599

t, try running regression without radio expenses

 Radio TV FB Intercept y=b1x1+b2x2+b3x3+b0
Coeffs -0.0188921873 0.1985692315 0.0463265484 3.0103791681
0.0166573373 0.0298299185 0.0037134524 0.8793297326
R^2 0.8868670109 1.7592219016 #N/A #N/A
67.939341311 26 #N/A #N/A
630.78859583 80.466404173 #N/A #N/A
RMSE 1.7592219016

TV FB Intercept
0.1768055069 0.0468265066 2.7567157596 Chart Title
0.0229593267 0.0037066951 0.8549082369 30
R^2 0.8812698313 1.7685255014 #N/A
25
100.20319903 27 #N/A
626.80757388 84.447426122 #N/A 20
RMSE 1.7685255014
15

10

0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

Sales Pred with Radio

 Sales Pred with RadioPred No Radio error radio
1x1+b2x2+b3x3+b0 22 19.87 20.21 2.23
10 12.02 11.79 1.62
9 11.61 11.68 2.31
19 17.12 17.15 1.38
13 12.43 13.13 0.47
7 11.71 11.81 4.51
12 11.74 11.25 0.06
13 12.25 11.85 0.95
5 3.81 3.53 0.99
11 12.38 12.57 1.78
9 6.77 6.88 1.83
art Title 17 17.65 17.05 0.25
9 9.84 10.08 0.64
10 8.90 8.67 0.80
19 18.13 18.13 0.87
22 20.53 20.34 1.87
13 11.27 12.40 1.23
24 22.86 22.94 1.54
11 9.94 9.62 1.36
15 14.22 13.88 0.38
18 17.62 17.88 0.38
13 14.58 14.78 2.08
6 5.84 6.19 0.24
15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
16 16.45 16.44 0.95
Pred with Radio 10 8.05 7.90 1.65
12 15.52 15.69 3.52
15 15.21 14.63 0.21
16 17.02 16.95 1.12
19 19.49 19.20 0.59
11 8.69 8.89 1.81

1.32
Errors no radio APE with radio APE without radio MAPE AVG_SAles
1.89 0.1009640028 0.0853057422671 11.844% with radio 13
1.39 0.1561195887 0.1335530505575 12.456% without radio
2.38 0.2486338653 0.2556456387472
1.35 0.0743477 0.0728108676237
0.23 0.0366307694 0.0180191963387
4.61 0.6259085435 0.6402632853745
0.55 0.0048084668 0.0467406341411
1.35 0.0718456177 0.1022235006262
1.27 0.2068977744 0.2644343164311
1.97 0.1681310531 0.1860703869956
1.72 0.2131308575 0.2003000246675
0.35 0.0141828684 0.0199023621502
0.88 0.0693191199 0.0953325988682
1.03 0.0824412325 0.1065956692322
0.87 0.045815011 0.0457417400148
2.06 0.083261502 0.091953668118
0.10 0.0987805064 0.0077892430689
1.46 0.0632857625 0.0600330820323
1.68 0.120254997 0.1485289460322
0.72 0.0260792056 0.0493211095162
0.12 0.0211320976 0.0066034806309
2.28 0.1661630744 0.182002921494
0.59 0.0432299818 0.104648786936
0.94 0.0611338623 0.0603367928878
1.80 0.1698176886 0.1853859268469
3.69 0.293018616 0.3071853022241
0.37 0.0140319902 0.0247583393899
1.05 0.0702426735 0.0661894318623
0.30 0.030953412 0.015797875452
1.61 0.1726342909 0.153185215422

1.35
 9.82% with radio
10.06% without radio
 alpha 0.5
Beta 0.1
Time sales FB TV Radio FB_Transf
Week 1 22 230.1 37.8 69.2 15.169047432
Week 2 10 44.5 39.3 45.1 6.7835761029
Week 3 9 17.2 45.9 69.3 4.228280692
Week 4 19 151.5 41.3 58.5 12.325697874
Week 5 13 180.8 10.8 58.4 13.491944626
Week 6 7 8.7 48.9 75 3.1700464449
Week 7 12 57.5 32.8 23.5 7.6037493807
Week 8 13 120.2 19.6 11.6 10.998198713
Week 9 5 8.6 2.1 1 3.1144533824
Week 10 11 199.8 2.6 21.2 14.146075263
Week 11 9 66.1 5.8 24.2 8.2167273002
Week 12 17 214.7 24 4 14.680656413
Week 13 9 23.8 35.1 65.9 5.0267350876
Week 14 10 97.5 7.6 7.2 9.8996299683
Week 15 19 204.1 32.9 46 14.320962363
Week 16 22 195.4 47.7 52.9 14.029686249
Week 17 13 67.8 36.6 114 8.3188321671
Week 18 24 281.4 39.6 55.8 16.799758427
Week 19 11 69.2 20.5 18.3 8.4190246373
Week 20 15 147.3 23.9 19.1 12.171355819
Week 21 18 218.4 27.7 53.4 14.819484997
Week 22 13 237.4 5.1 23.5 15.455806304
Week 23 6 13.2 15.9 49.6 3.8399974779
Week 24 16 228.3 16.9 26.2 15.122301404
Week 25 10 62.3 12.6 18.3 7.9882557633
Week 26 12 262.9 3.5 19.5 16.238806162
Week 27 15 142.9 29.3 12.6 12.021808542
Week 28 16 240.1 16.7 22.9 15.533904237
Week 29 19 248.8 27.1 22.9 15.822559541
Week 30 11 70.6 16 40.8 8.4960141216
1899-12-30 0 0 0 0

Adstock(t)= Adstock (t-1)*beta+ Spent(t) Dim Ret = Adstock(t) ^Alpha Transf. = (adstock(t-1)*beta+spent(t))^alpha
 0.5 0.5
0.1 0.1
TV_Transf Radio_transf
6.1481704596 8.3186537372
6.3178174274 6.7773051705 Radio TV FB
6.8214208009 8.3652693033 -0.1681704832 1.7457527808 0.9568177952
6.4793627835 7.7030206368 0.163985178 0.2182320517 0.0638484158
3.3834799066 7.6922234798 R^2 0.9189133413 1.4893634602 #N/A
7.0170042034 8.7045518178 98.214869773 26 #N/A
5.7880653435 4.9366441214 653.58170857 57.673291434 #N/A
4.49208265 3.4775946302 RMSE 1.4893634602
1.5966240212 1.1609304299
1.6612231645 4.6169354601
2.4425647006 4.9660541223
4.9238456993 2.1205200806
sales rispetto a Predictions
5.9659353474 8.1309318044 30
2.8629693562 2.8307407477
5.7607548929 6.8031664741 25
6.948098696 7.3198576931
6.1069476721 10.711301778
6.3411903273 7.5412949934 20
4.5971859907 4.3651036069
4.9355565643 4.4200124842 15
sales

5.3097604142 7.3377108998
2.3729677708 4.922780829
4.0171254371 7.0775898499 10
4.1595327314 5.1872689332
3.6077629181 4.3380556582
5
1.9648858216 4.4647290585
5.4310669838 3.6119901586
4.1524819925 4.8229865245 0
5.2454978981 4.8355246512 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
4.0650399494 6.4252278143

-1)*beta+spent(t))^alpha
 Predictions sales Errors APE
19.6 22 2.50 0.1129368878
Intercept 12.14 10 1.74 0.1669324604
-4.2441533996 10.30 9 1.00 0.1078778238
1.1943228194 17.57 19 0.93 0.0505276454
#N/A 13.28 13 0.38 0.0293251029
#N/A 9.58 7 2.38 0.329876301
#N/A 12.31 12 0.51 0.0428459882
13.54 13 0.34 0.0254815041
1.33 5 3.47 0.7233567473
11.41 11 0.81 0.0768599846

redictions 7.05
18.04
9
17
1.55 0.1806130352
0.64 0.0368832378
9.61 9 0.41 0.0449110519
9.75 10 0.05 0.005152412
18.37 19 0.63 0.0330968255
20.08 22 2.32 0.1036438089
12.58 13 0.08 0.0060279471
21.63 24 2.77 0.1134392687
sales 11.10 11 0.20 0.0174524039
Predictions 15.27 15 0.67 0.0462029042
17.97 18 0.03 0.0016146565
13.86 13 1.36 0.1087188613
5.25 6 0.35 0.0620195145
16.61 16 1.11 0.0718905806
8.97 10 0.73 0.0754761754
13.97 12 1.97 0.1643995462
16.13 15 1.13 0.0754931403
17.06 16 1.16 0.0727726802
1 23 25 27 29 19.24 19 0.34 0.0179525482
9.90 11 0.60 0.0570471209

1.07 9.87%
AVG_sales %error
13 7.97%
 alpha 0.43 0.73 0.00
Beta 0.33 0.01 0.00

Time sales FB TV Radio FB_Transf TV_Transf Radio_transf

Week 1 22 230.1 37.8 69.2 10.165 14.217 1.000
Week 2 10 44.5 39.3 45.1 5.203 14.655 1.000
Week 3 9 17.2 45.9 69.3 3.503 16.412 1.000
Week 4 19 151.5 41.3 58.5 8.534 15.199 1.000
Week 5 13 180.8 10.8 58.4 9.233 5.733 1.000
Week 6 7 8.7 48.9 75 2.858 17.171 1.000
Week 7 12 57.5 32.8 23.5 5.667 12.851 1.000
Week 8 13 120.2 19.6 11.6 7.758 8.827 1.000
Week 9 5 8.6 2.1 1 2.796 1.757 1.000
Week 10 11 199.8 2.6 21.2 9.590 2.017 1.000
Week 11 9 66.1 5.8 24.2 6.092 3.620 1.000
Week 12 17 214.7 24 4 9.909 10.209 1.000
Week 13 9 23.8 35.1 65.9 4.081 13.488 1.000
Week 14 10 97.5 7.6 7.2 7.090 4.443 1.000
Week 15 19 204.1 32.9 46 9.706 12.854 1.000
Week 16 22 195.4 47.7 52.9 9.547 16.875 1.000
Week 17 13 67.8 36.6 114 6.155 13.919 1.000
Week 18 24 281.4 39.6 55.8 11.110 14.735 1.000
Week 19 11 69.2 20.5 18.3 6.225 9.125 1.000
Week 20 15 147.3 23.9 19.1 8.454 10.190 1.000
Week 21 18 218.4 27.7 53.4 9.996 11.349 1.000
Week 22 13 237.4 5.1 23.5 10.362 3.327 1.000
Week 23 6 13.2 15.9 49.6 3.314 7.559 1.000
Week 24 16 228.3 16.9 26.2 10.152 7.913 1.000
Week 25 10 62.3 12.6 18.3 5.954 6.391 1.000
Week 26 12 262.9 3.5 19.5 10.794 2.522 1.000
Week 27 15 142.9 29.3 12.6 8.384 11.808 1.000
Week 28 16 240.1 16.7 22.9 10.402 7.855 1.000
Week 29 19 248.8 27.1 22.9 10.571 11.165 1.000
Week 30 11 70.6 16 40.8 6.270 7.612 1.000

Adstock(t)= Adstock (t-1)*beta+ SpeDim Ret = Adstock(Transf. = (adstock(t-1)*beta+spent(t))^alpha

Adstock(t)= Adstock (t-1)*beta+ Spent(t)

Dim Ret = Adstock(t) ^Alpha

Transf. = (adstock(t-1)*beta+spent(t))^alpha
 #NAME? sales
22
Radio TV FB Intercept 10
Coefficients -6009339.2339 0.6476126233 1.6289161119 6009336.0438 9
2975680.0478 0.0698601317 0.1000832619 2975680.6466 19
R^2 0.9280672084 1.4027796268 #N/A #N/A 13
111.81616834 26 #N/A #N/A 7
660.09244228 51.162557719 #N/A #N/A 12
RMSE 1.4027796268 13
5
11
9
Sales Vs Predicted 17
30 9
10
25
19
20 22
13
15 24
11
10
15
5 18
13
0 6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 16
10
sales Predictions
12
15
16
19
sales Vs Predictions - Initial 11

30

25

20

15

10

0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29

Sales Pred with Radio

 Mean absolute percentage error
Absolute
Predictions Errors Squared Error APE %error
19.72 2.38 5.6484 0.11 991.14%
12.21 1.81 3.2835 0.17
10.29 0.99 0.9810 0.11 So the given model is fitted with an accuracy of 92.7% and an error o
17.81 0.69 0.4705 0.04 The percentage error is lowered from 9.82% to 7.96% from simple to
12.82 0.08 0.0059 0.01
9.68 2.48 6.1450 0.34 The diminishing return from the adstock model is developed
12.24 0.44 0.1918 0.04
13.51 0.31 0.0980 0.02 Next the model will be mitigated to reduce the error and improve the
2.50 2.30 5.2772 0.48 Next model will enable us to find the best budget spent and each cha
11.68 1.08 1.1707 0.10
6.93 1.67 2.7800 0.19
18.63 1.23 1.5094 0.07
9.37 0.17 0.0298 0.02
9.91 0.21 0.0429 0.02 A
18.37 0.63 0.4009 0.03
20.62 1.78 3.1765 0.08
12.66 0.16 0.0261 0.01
21.74 2.66 7.0599 0.11
10.90 0.40 0.1579 0.04
15.19 0.59 0.3538 0.04
17.76 0.24 0.0558 0.01
13.72 1.22 1.4845 0.10
4.48 1.12 1.2656 0.20
16.27 0.77 0.5969 0.05
8.69 1.01 1.0182 0.10
14.03 2.03 4.1026 0.17
16.41 1.41 1.9823 0.09
16.73 0.83 0.6936 0.05
19.15 0.25 0.0635 0.01
9.46 1.04 1.0907 0.10

MAPE 9.75%
1.066 1.71 MSE
1.3059167626 RMSE
accuracy of 92.7% and an error of 7.92%
m 9.82% to 7.96% from simple to transformed model

tock model is developed

educe the error and improve the precision by simulating the spend on different channels
e best budget spent and each channel
 alpha 0.43

FB TV Radio FB_Transfo
230.1 37.8 69.2 10.1654
44.5 39.3 45.1 5.0450
17.2 45.9 69.3 3.3638
151.5 41.3 58.5 8.5061
180.8 10.8 58.4 9.1722
8.7 48.9 75 2.5154
57.5 32.8 23.5 5.6276
120.2 19.6 11.6 7.7068
8.6 2.1 1 2.5031
199.8 2.6 21.2 9.5715
66.1 5.8 24.2 5.9722
214.7 24 4 9.8696
23.8 35.1 65.9 3.8634
97.5 7.6 7.2 7.0488
204.1 32.9 46 9.6588
195.4 47.7 52.9 9.4810
67.8 36.6 114 6.0373
281.4 39.6 55.8 11.0763
69.2 20.5 18.3 6.0901
147.3 23.9 19.1 8.4048
218.4 27.7 53.4 9.9417
237.4 5.1 23.5 10.3017
13.2 15.9 49.6 3.0048
228.3 16.9 26.2 10.1314
62.3 12.6 18.3 5.8234
262.9 3.5 19.5 10.7598
142.9 29.3 12.6 8.2968
240.1 16.7 22.9 10.3515
248.8 27.1 22.9 10.5098

Adstock Model

Beta

Time sales FB TV Radio

Week 1 22 230.1 37.8 69.2
Week 2
Week 3
 Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Week 16
Week 17
Week 18
Week 19
Week 20
Week 21
Week 22
Week 23
Week 24
Week 25
Week 26
Week 27
Week 28
Week 29
Week 30
 0.73 0.00

TV_Transfo Radio_Transformed FB Transformed

14.21719 1.00000
12
14.62732 1.00000
16.38455 1.00000 10
15.16766 1.00000
5.69134 1.00000 8
17.16044 1.00000
6
12.81693 1.00000
8.79765 1.00000 4
1.71979 1.00000
2.01029 1.00000 2
3.61331 1.00000
0
10.20101 1.00000 0 50 100 150 200 250 300
13.46770 1.00000
4.40239 1.00000
12.84548 1.00000 TV_Transformed
16.85167 1.00000 20.00000
13.88593 1.00000 18.00000
14.70883 1.00000
16.00000 R² = 1
9.09108 1.00000
10.16993 1.00000 14.00000
11.32788 1.00000 12.00000
3.28916 1.00000 10.00000
7.55036 1.00000
8.00000
7.89453 1.00000
6.00000
6.36999 1.00000
2.49804 1.00000 4.00000
11.80241 1.00000 2.00000
7.82614 1.00000 0.00000
11.14803 1.00000 0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Radio_Transformed
1.00000

1.00000
R² = 1

0.33 0.01 0.00

1.00000

FB_transfor TV_transf Radio_TRansformed

230.1 37.8 69.2
75.708098 0.266617 0 1.00000
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
24.909675 0.001881 0
8.1958457 1.33E-05 0
2.6966184 9.36E-08 0 250
0.8872484 6.6E-10 0
0.2919248 4.65E-12 0
200
0.0960498 3.28E-14 0
0.0316026 2.32E-16 0
0.010398 1.63E-18 0
150
0.0034212 1.15E-20 0
0.0011256 8.13E-23 0
100

50

0
Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 W

FB_transformed

40

35

30

25

20
T
15

10

0
Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

80

70

60

50

40
Radi
70

60

50

40
Radi
30

20

10

0
Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
ed There are diminishing returns after spending a little money, i.e. after spending $175 the margina
In marketing the overall ROA goes down by increasing budget.
After a certain point on investment the marginal contribution on each dollar is less than before

200 250 300

ed

40 50 60

med

Radio
It takes around 12 dollars investment to reach from 0 to 3 dollars transaction
While to go from 4 to 7 dollars we need 60 dollar more investment
This is what diminishing return means

80 100 120
 Adstock for FB
The graph shown the effect over time on marketing inestment
Some percentage of sales can be seen after week 3. i.e. after two weeks since
The graph shows effect over time for each channel
This model gives information that how long it will take to get results for each cha

Week 6 Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week Week

10 11
250
B_transformed

200

150

TV has a stricter effect

100

50

TV_transformed
0
0.5 1 1.5 2

FB_transforme

k Week Week Week Week

8 9 10 11

Radio_TRansformed
 Radio_TRansformed

Week Week Week Week

8 9 10 11
r spending $175 the marginal contribution on each dollar spent has less return

h dollar is less than before

3. i.e. after two weeks since the first investment

ke to get results for each channel investments

Chart Title

1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5

FB_transformed TV_transformed Radio_TRansformed

 Radio_Transformed e Radio_Transfo
1.00000

R² = 0.723838317632817
1.00000

1.00000

1.00000
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
FB_Transformed

FB_Transformed e FB_Tran
12.0000
R² = 0.853245456347519

10.0000

8.0000

6.0000

4.0000

2.0000

0.0000
0 50 100 150 200 250 30
FB_Transformed

TV_Transformed e Radio_Tra
20.00000
R² = 0.864814245318704
18.00000
 TV_Transformed e Radio_Tra
20.00000
R² = 0.864814245318704
18.00000
16.00000
14.00000
12.00000
10.00000
8.00000
6.00000
4.00000
2.00000
0.00000
0 10 20 30 40 50
FB_Transformed
e Radio_Transformed

Radio_Transformed
Linea di tendenza per
FB_Transformed

80 100 120
ed

med e FB_Transformed

FB_Transformed
Linea di tendenza per
FB_Transformed

200 250 300

med

med e Radio_Transformed
med e Radio_Transformed

TV_Transformed
Linea di tendenza per
FB_Transformed

30 40 50 60
med
 Radio TV FB Intercept
-935865605 0.7417881933 1.3440167641 935865602.3
475290535.53 0.080520665 0.082832389 475290536.14
R^2 0.927731194 1.4060521599 #N/A #N/A
111.25598255 26 #N/A #N/A
659.85345042 51.401549584 #N/A #N/A
RMSE 1.4060521599

Radio TV FB Intercept
-935865605 0.7417881933 1.3440167641 935865602.3

Contribution -3988149303 21.366501569 8.9273474483 935865602.3

Transformed 4.2614551505 28.80404644 6.6422887622 1
Averages 40.8 16 70.6

Input 10 120 30

alpha 0.5 0.7 0.5

Beta 0.2 0.1 0.2

Sales Prediction -3052283670

Cost 160

Cost per order CPO 0.00

 alpha 0.5

FB TV Radio FB_Transforme
230.1 37.8 69.2 15.169047432
44.5 39.3 45.1 6.6708320321
17.2 45.9 69.3 4.1472882707
151.5 41.3 58.5 12.308533625
180.8 10.8 58.4 13.446189051
8.7 48.9 75 2.9495762408
57.5 32.8 23.5 7.5828754441
120.2 19.6 11.6 10.963576059
8.6 2.1 1 2.9325756597
199.8 2.6 21.2 14.135062787
66.1 5.8 24.2 8.1301906497
214.7 24 4 14.652644812
23.8 35.1 65.9 4.8785243671
97.5 7.6 7.2 9.8742088291
204.1 32.9 46 14.286357128
195.4 47.7 52.9 13.978555004
67.8 36.6 114 8.2340755401
281.4 39.6 55.8 16.774981371
69.2 20.5 18.3 8.3186537372
147.3 23.9 19.1 12.136721139
218.4 27.7 53.4 14.778362562
237.4 5.1 23.5 15.407790237
13.2 15.9 49.6 3.6331804249
228.3 16.9 26.2 15.109599598
62.3 12.6 18.3 7.8930349043
262.9 3.5 19.5 16.214191315
142.9 29.3 12.6 11.954078802
240.1 16.7 22.9 15.495160535
248.8 27.1 22.9 15.773395323

Beta

Time sales FB TV Radio

Week 1 22 230.1 37.8 69.2
Week 2 10
Week 3 9
 Week 4 19
Week 5 13
Week 6 7
Week 7 12
Week 8 13
Week 9 5
Week 10 11
Week 11 9
Week 12 17
Week 13 9
Week 14 10
Week 15 19
Week 16 22
Week 17 13
Week 18 24
Week 19 11
0 Week 20 15
0 Week 21 18
0 Week 22 13
0 Week 23 6
0 Week 24 16
0 Week 25 10
0 Week 26 12
0 Week 27 15
0 Week 28 16
0 Week 29 19
0 Week 30 11
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
 0.7 0.5

TV_TransformeRadio_Transformed
6.1481704596 8.3186537372
6.2689712075 6.7156533562
6.7749538744 8.3246621553
6.4265076052 7.6485292704
3.286335345 7.6419892698
6.9928534948 8.6602540378
5.7271284253 4.8476798574
4.4271887242 3.4058772732
1.4491376746 1
1.6124515497 4.6043457733
2.4083189158 4.9193495505
4.8989794856 2
5.9245252974 8.117881497
2.7568097504 2.683281573
5.7358521599 6.7823299831
6.9065186599 7.2732386184
6.0497933849 10.677078252
6.292853089 7.4699397588
4.5276925691 4.2778499272
4.8887626246 4.3703546767
5.2630789468 7.3075303626
2.2583179581 4.8476798574
3.9874804075 7.0427267447
4.1109609582 5.1185935568
3.5496478699 4.2778499272
1.8708286934 4.4158804332
5.4129474411 3.5496478699
4.0865633483 4.7853944456
5.2057660339 4.7853944456

0.2 0.1 0.2 250

FB_transformedTV_transformedRadio_TRansformed
230.1 37.8 69.2
200
46.02 3.78 13.84
9.204 0.378 2.768

150
 200

1.8408 0.0378 0.5536

150
0.36816 0.00378 0.11072
0.073632 0.000378 0.022144
0.0147264 0.0000378 0.0044288
0.00294528 0.00000378 0.00088576 100
0.000589056 0.000000378 0.000177152
0.0001178112 0.0000000378 0.0000354304
2.356224E-05 3.78E-09 7.08608E-06 50

0
Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week W
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

0
Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week W
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
 FB_Transformed e FB_Transform
18
R² = 0.853245456347519
16
14
12
10
8
6
4Radio_Transformed e Radio_Transforme
2
12
R² = 0.723838317599913
0
100 50 100 150 200 250 300
FB_Transformed
8

0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
FB_Transformed

TV_Transformed e Radio_Transfo
8
R² = 0.864814245318704
7

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
FB_Transformed
FB_transformed
 2

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
FB_Transformed
FB_transformed

k Week Week Week Week Week Week

6 7 8 9 10 11

80

70

60

50

40
TV_transformed R
30

20

10

0
Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week
6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
 e FB_Transformed

FB_Transformed
Linea di tendenza per
FB_Transformed

adio_Transformed

0 250 300

Radio_Transformed
Linea di tendenza per
FB_Transformed

100 120

e Radio_Transformed

TV_Transformed
Linea di tendenza per
FB_Transformed

0 50 60
0 50 60

Radio_TRansformed

Week Week Week

9 10 11