eMarketer Forecasting Analyst Test Part 1

The following are two charts from our latest mobile usage forecast.
For our new forecast, we decided we will increase the number of US Smartphone users by 10 million for the year 20
Based on this revision and given the data from the two charts attached, can you calculate the following new metrics
US Smartphone Users, 2011-2017 (millions)
US Smartphone Users, 2011-2017 (Year over y
US Smartphone Users, 2012-2017 Compound
US mobile phone social networks users, 2011-
US Social network users, 2011-2017 (millions)
US Smartphone social network users, 2011-20
Please indicate the formula and reasoning you used to come up with your calculation for each step.
Please explain briefly the implication of this change to the metrics.

US Smartphone Social Network Users, 2011-2017

2011
Smartphone social network users (millions) 55.7
—% change 72.1%
—% of mobile phone social network users 95.3%
—% of smartphone users 60.0%
—% of population 17.9%

Note: CAGR (2011-2017)=19.3%; mobile phone users of any age who use a social network site via smartphones through a mob
Extended Note: Smartphone users are individuals of any age who own at least one smartphone and use the smartphone(s) at
Source: eMarketer, March 2013

US Mobile Phone Social Network User Penetration, by Phone Type, 2011-2017 (% of total social net

2011
Mobile phone social network users 39.6%
— Feature phone 1.8%
— Smartphone 37.8%

Note: internet users who use a social network site via any device at least once per month; *mobile phone users who use a soci
Extended Note: Smartphone users are individuals of any age who own at least one smartphone and use the smartphone(s) at l
Source: eMarketer, March 2013

2011
US Smartphone Users, 2011-2017 (millions) 92.84
US Smartphone Users, 2011-2017 (Year over year % change)
US Smartphone Users, 2012-2017 Compound annual growth rate
US mobile phone social networks users, 2011-2017 (millions) 58.4
US Social network users, 2011-2017 (millions) 147.42
US Smartphone social network users, 2011-2017 (millions) 55.7
US Smartphone social network users, 2011-2017 (millions) - Total 55.7

Implicaton of the change to the metrics:

The increase of 10 million US Smartphone users in 2014 would have a

cascading effect on various metrics. The overall number of smartphone
users, as well as thenumber of social network users, would increase. This
increase would also impact the penetraton rates of smartphone social
network users and their representaton within the mobile phone social
network user base. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the
2012-2017 period would be afected, potentally reflecting higher growth
due to the additonal users. These changes indicate a greater market
potential for social network platforms targeing US smartphone users.
This suggests that the increase in smartphone users had a positive
impact on the growth of the mobile phone social networking market. .
e users by 10 million for the year 2014.
alculate the following new metrics:
one Users, 2011-2017 (millions)
one Users, 2011-2017 (Year over year % change)
one Users, 2012-2017 Compound annual growth rate
hone social networks users, 2011-2017 (millions)
twork users, 2011-2017 (millions)
one social network users, 2011-2017 (millions) 0.0724
tion for each step.

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

82.0 97.9 115.8 131.2 145.9 160.5
47.1% 19.4% 18.3% 13.3% 11.2% 10.0%
96.9% 98.0% 98.4% 98.9% 99.2% 99.3%
67.5% 69.9% 72.4% 73.7% 75.3% 77.4%
26.1% 30.9% 36.3% 40.8% 45.0% 49.2%

k site via smartphones through a mobile browser or application at least once per month
phone and use the smartphone(s) at least once per month; smartphones are any voice handset with an advanced operating system (e.g.,

11-2017 (% of total social network users)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

53.8% 61.1% 69.4% 75.9% 82.0% 88.0%
1.7% 1.2% 1.1% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6%
52.1% 59.9% 68.3% 75.0% 81.3% 87.3%

; *mobile phone users who use a social network site via smartphones through a mobile browser or application at least once per month
phone and use the smartphone(s) at least once per month; smartphones are any voice handset with an advanced operating system (e.g., i

Solution
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
121.43 140.04 169.90 178.05 193.74 207.37
31% 15% 21% 5% 9% 7%
11.30%
 84.6 99.8 127.7 132.7 147.1 161.7
157.25 163.54 183.87 174.89 179.36 183.80
82.0 97.9 123.0 131.2 145.9 160.5
82.0 97.9 125.6 131.2 145.9 160.5

796.18 Millions
dvanced operating system (e.g., iPhone, Android, BlackBerry, Windows Mobile, etc.) and features/capabilities that resemble a PC.

ion at least once per month

dvanced operating system (e.g., iPhone, Android, BlackBerry, Windows Mobile, etc.) and features/capabilities that resemble a PC.

Smartphone Users = Smartphone social network users/Percentage of smartphone users

YoY Growth = (New Value - Old Value) / Old Value * 100%
CAGR = (Ending Value / Beginning Value)^(1/Number of Years) - 1
Phone Social Network Users = Smartphone social network users/Percentage of phone social network usres
Social Network Users = Mobile phone social network users/Users by the corresponding penetraton percentages.
Smartphone social network users = Smartphone social network users
esemble a PC.

emble a PC.
eMarketer Forecasting Analyst Test Part 2

The following is our old 2021 US Pinterest User Forecast

2017 Pinterest Forecast

Metric Data Type 2018 2019 2020
Pinterest Users People 75.4 81.9 88.4
Pinterest User Growth % Change 7.4% 8.7% 7.8%
Pinterest Users % of Population % of Population 23.0% 24.8% 26.6%
Pinterest Users % of Internet Users % of Internet Users 27.0% 28.7% 30.3%
internet users of any age who access their Pinterest account via any device at least once per month
Estimates are based on the analysis of survey and traffic data from research firms and regulatory agencies; company releases; historical tre

For our new 2022 update please indicate whether you would increase or decrease growth rates starting with 2020
a. Please indicate your reasoning and the data you used to come up with your recommendation
b. Assuming population and internet user numbers as constant, please update all the data based on your recommen

Metric Data Type 2018 2019 2020

Pinterest Users People 75.4 81.9 88.3
Pinterest User Growth % Change 7.40% 8.70% 7.80%
Pinterest Users % of Population % of Population 23.00% 24.80% 26.60%
Pinterest Users % of Internet Users % of Internet Users 27.00% 28.70% 30.30%
Pinterest User Growth (Formula) 7.8%

Reasoning

Slowing overall user growth: Pinterest's

global user growth has been slowing down in
recent years. In 2022, the company's global
monthly active users (MAUs) increased by
only 5%, compared to 11% in 2021 and 26%
in 2020.
Increased competition: Pinterest is facing
increased competition from other social
media platforms, such as TikTok and
Instagram, which are attracting younger
users.
Changes in user behavior: Users are
increasingly using Pinterest for inspiration
and discovery, rather than for social
networking. This shift in behavior may be
contributing to the slowing growth rate.

As of the first quarter of 2023, Pinterest had a total of 95 million monthly active users (MAUs) in the United States and Canada
33 Latest Pinterest Statistics For 2023: The Definitive List (bloggingwizard.com)
Pinterest Usage and Revenue Statistics: How Many People Use Pinterest in 2023? (backlinko.com)
Pinterest Revenue 2018-2023 | PINS | MacroTrends
Chart: Pinterest Gains 100+ Million Users on Pandemic Boost | Statista
 2021 2022 2023 CAGR (2018-2023)
91.1 92.4 93.5 4.4%
3.1% 1.5% 1.1%
27.2% 27.4% 27.5%
30.9% 31.0% 31.1%

any releases; historical trends; internet and mobile adoption trends; and demographic adoption trends.

tes starting with 2020

ed on your recommendation

2021 2022 2023 CAGR (2018-2023)

91.0 92.4 92.9 4.30%
3.10% 1.50% 0.60% 1.00%
27.20% 27.40% 27.50%
30.90% 31.00% 31.10%
3.1% 1.5% 0.6%

nited States and Canada. For Europe, the image based social media platform had 128 million MAUs, an increase of four million when comp
of four million when compared to the previous quarter. Overall, for the rest of the world, there were 240 million MAUs in Q4 2022. Additi
on MAUs in Q4 2022. Additionally, worldwide MAUs peaked in the first quarter of 2021.