Discrete Probability Distribution

INTRODUCTION

The probability distributions to be discussed are:

a) Discrete Distributions:
1) Binomial Distribution,
2) Poisson Distribution,
3) Negative Binomial Distribution;

b) Continuous Distributions:
1) Normal Distribution:

DISCRETE

Binomial Distribution

A discrete random variable X is said to have a binomial distribution if its

probability function is defined by

f (x, n,p) = for x = 0, 1, 2,…………….…, n

where, the two parameters n (number of trials) and p (probability of success) satisfy
and n is a positive integer and q = 1 – p. A distribution defined by the above
probability function is called binomial distribution and the random variable X is
called binomial variate with parameter n and p.

For example, let the germination rate for a particular species of plant is 70%
and we are interested to estimate the probability that out of 5 seeds exactly 2 will be
germinated. It is assumed that the probability of germination is 0.7 for each seed, that
the seed are selected at random and that they are independent. For convenience,
suppose that the seeds are labeled as A, B, C, D, E that capital letters are used to
denote germination and dots indicate the failure to germinate. There are 5C2 =10
ways in which exactly two of the five seeds may germinate and these are
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Discrete Probability Distribution

AB… A .C.. A..D. A…E .BC.. .B.D. .B..E ..CD. ..C.E …DE

Now, the probabilities in each case are identical since for example

P(AB…) = (0.7) (0.7) (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) = (0.7)2 (0.3)3 = 0.0011907

P(A.C..) = (0.7) (0.3) (0.7) (0.3) (0.3) = (0.7)2 (0.3)3 = 0.0011907 and so on

Since P(exactly two germination) = P (AB…) +P (A.C..) + … + P (… DE)

= 10 x 0.0011907
= 5C2 (0.7)2 (0.3)3

hence, we can write

f(x = 2; n,p) = nCx px qn-x ; x = 0, 1, 2, …., 5

Conditions must be satisfied to have binomial distribution:

The following conditions must be satisfied by a variable to have binomial

distribution.
i) There should be a fixed number of trials.
ii) The trials should be independent.
iii) The probability of success and hence the probability of failure remains
same or constant from trial to trial.

Characteristics of Binomial Distribution:

Some of the important characteristics of binomial distribution are as follows:

i) The distribution is called binomial distribution since the probability of x

success is given by the (x+1)th term of the binomial expansion (q+p)n.
ii) f (x) = for all values of x.

iii)
iv) The two independent constants n and p of the distribution are known as
the parameter of the distribution.
v) Mean of the binomial distribution is np and variance is npq i.e.,
That is mean is always greater than the variance,
since

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Discrete Probability Distribution

vi) The distribution is symmetrical if p = q = , is positively skewed if ,

and is negatively skewed if

vii) The distribution is mesokurtic if , is platykurtic if , and is

leptokurtic if .
viii) If , then and , which indicate that binomial
distribution becomes normal distribution if .

ix) If p or q is very small, but n is very large such that np or nq is finite

constant, then binomial distribution turns into Poisson distribution.

Problem # 1
There are five flights daily from Pittsburgh via US Airways into the Bradford,
Pennsylvania Regional Airport. Suppose the probability that any flight arrives late is .25. What
is the probability that exactly two flights are late is late today? Compute the mean and variance
of the above binomial probability distribution by shortcut method.

Solution:

Given,

n = 5, p = .25 and q = .75, x = 2

The probability that exactly two flights late,

P (x=2) = nCx px qn-x Mean = np = 5 x .25 = 1.25

5
= C2 p2 q5-2 Variance = npq = 5 x .25 x .75 = 0.9375

= 10 x (.25)2 (.75)3

= 0.263672

Poisson Distribution

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Discrete Probability Distribution

A discrete random variable X is said to have a Poisson distribution if its

probability function is given by
for x = 0, 1, 2, …………
where , e = 2.71828 and is the parameter of the distribution, which is the mean
number of success.

Conditions must be satisfied to have Poisson distribution:

The following conditions must be satisfied by a variable to have Poisson

distribution.

i) The probability of success or failure in Bernoulli trial (a trial with only

two outcomes, ‘success’ and ‘failure’) is very small, i.e.,
ii) n, the number of trials is very large.
iii) is a finite constant.

Characteristics of Poisson Distribution:

Some of the important, characteristics of Poisson distribution are as follows:

i) The mean and variance of Poisson distribution is equal to the parameter

of the distribution, i.e., mean, = variance, = .
ii) Poisson distribution is always positively skewed and leptokurtic.
iii) If , then , which indicate that Poisson distribution
tends to normal distribution if .

Negative Binomial Distribution

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Discrete Probability Distribution

A discrete random variable X is said to have a negative binomial distribution if

its probability function is given by

where, r > 0 and are the parameters of the distribution such that p + q = 1.
Actually, f (x; r, p) is the probability of getting exactly r success in (x + r) independent
Bernoulli trials.

Characteristics of Negative Binomial Distribution:

Some of the important characteristics of negative binomial distribution are as

follows:

i) Mean of the distribution is and variance is i. e., mean < variance.

ii) If , then the negative binomial distribution turns into
Poisson distribution.

iv) The distribution is positively skewed and leptokurtic.

v) The number of trial may be infinite and depends on the number of success r,
which is fixed.

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