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CB1 Unit 4
CB1 Unit 4
Listen and note-take to identify different view-points to prepare for participation in an informal
class discussion
Tasks
The tasks you will complete in this unit are:
Begin an essay plan (fully referenced) on the causes and effects of global warming (you will not
write the essay)
What will the future long term effects of global warming be?
How is the current period of climate change similar to or different from past periods of climate
change?
The policy of enforcing national targets on greenhouse emissions has been supported by many
countries as a serious, global solution to the problem of global warming, but rejected by others as
both unfair and unworkable.
It is predicted that global warming will result in a number of negative consequences, including
higher sea levels, the destruction of coral reefs and the extinction of many species.
The kinds of solutions that have been proposed for the problem of global warming range from
encouraging the use of alternative energy sources to restricting motor vehicle use to enforcing
national targets on greenhouse emissions.
Among the causes of global warming are the clearing and burning of forests, the use of fossil fuels
in industry and transport, and some agricultural practices.
One difference between the current period of climate change and past periods may be the rate of
global warming.
Complete the following diagrams by writing information from the statements above, on or around the
diagrams.
Cause
Cause
Effect Implication
Effect Implication
How is the current period of climate change similar to or different from past periods of climate
change?
Note: The problem and solution template also shows causes. In fact, the rhetorical patterns of cause
and effect, and problem and solution, are closely linked.
Researching
Read the ‘Climate Change’ chapter on pages 171 - 185 of Global Issues and add to the diagrams.
Return to the diagrams on the previous pages after you have read the remaining texts in the unit
and add further information.
When cars are driven and factories are operated, greenhouse gases
are emitted. These gases then accumulate in the atmosphere and trap
Explanatory sequence
radiation or heat. As a result, the earth’s temperature increases.
A good example of the explanation genre is ‘Japan’s Nuclear Crisis’ which you can access in
Blackboard. Read the explanations and isolate the following in the text:
An explanation of the process of using nuclear fission to produce energy (how fission reactors
work)
In small groups discuss what you understand by the greenhouse effect. Thinking about the topic
of a lecture beforehand helps your understanding.
Work with a partner to try to explain the greenhouse effect using the following diagram. Making
diagrams can help you to think about a topic and thus assist your listening comprehension.
Words/Phrases Explanation
Greenhouse
Metaphoric
Photosynthesis
Solar radiation
infrared
Re-emit
Listen to the explanation and write notes on the diagram as you listen.
Listen a second time and add to your notes. Compare your completed notes with a partner.
Are your notes similar? Many lectures are recorded and you may, as in this example, have the
opportunity to listen more than once to improve your understanding of the topic. Discussing
ideas with classmates will enhance your understanding. When you are engaging with tertiary
study, try to organise your own study group where you can meet regularly with others to
discuss the content of lessons.
In small groups, discuss what you have learned about the greenhouse effect. Verbalising what
you know helps you remember the ideas you have encountered later and is a useful study aid.
Your plan should include explanations of particular causes and effects of global warming and provide
support from at least three sources. The sources allowed are listed in Blackboard/Online Weekly
Materials.
Structuring An Essay
General Essay Structure:
An academic essay is a piece of writing usually composed of three or more paragraphs. An essay
allows you to develop ideas on a topic in more detail than you can fit in a paragraph. There are many
different styles of academic essay: problem-solution, argument, logical division of ideas, cause-effect,
and so on. Each style of essay has its own pattern of organization: however they mostly follow the
general structure of Introduction/Body Paragraphs/Conclusion.
The Introduction usually starts with a broad, general statement about the topic and may include
background information and the purpose of the essay. It then includes more specific information
about the actual topic that will be discussed – this is the thesis statement, and is often the last sentence
in the introductory paragraph. Sometimes included in the Introduction is a sentence explaining the
scope of the essay or the outline of the structure that the essay will use.
In the Body Paragraphs, the writer’s ideas are developed and supported. Each body paragraph
contains a topic sentence (containing the main or controlling idea of the paragraph) followed by
supporting details in which explanations for the idea are given and supported by specific examples or
factual details (references). The paragraph ends with a concluding sentence or transition sentence.
There can be many body paragraphs, depending on the length of the essay, however each body
paragraph should contain one main point.
The Conclusion usually restates the thesis statement and summarises the writer’s main points. It can
possibly include recommendations or predictions as a final statement.
As mentioned previously, there are many different types of academic essays. The focus of this lesson
is cause-effect essays. Cause-effect essays may generally be organised in two ways: block organisation
Block Organisation is where you list all the causes first and then the effects (or the other way
around). It generally looks like this:
OR
Read the following essay called ‘The Energy Crisis’ and answer the questions that follow:
One of the causes of societies’ dependence on non-renewable sources of energy is that they are
still relatively cheap and readily available in comparison to some renewable sources. One of the
most promising sources of renewable sources is solar energy but at present it is not cheap
enough. For example, even though solar energy is abundant, solar cells are still relatively
expensive to implement when compared with the cost of extracting sources such as coal and oil
(Hite & Seitz, 2016, p. 152). Two other renewable forms of energy under consideration are wind
and geothermal energy. However, although these two fuel sources can be very cost effective,
they are only a realistic consideration in certain areas of the world. For example, geothermal
energy is already used extensively in Russia, Iceland and Hungary where the geological
conditions are right for this kind of energy but would not be viable for most other parts of the
world where conditions do not permit (Hite & Seitz, 2016, pp. 149-150, 153-154). Therefore, it
is clear that some renewable sources of energy are seen as less favourable than non-renewable
energy sources in terms of expense and availability.
Another reason why societies continue to favour non-renewable sources of energy is because
people are used to an endless supply of material goods due to cheap energy. Firstly, it is difficult
to ask a society that is used to being able to buy and consume whatever they want, to reduce
their intake of goods. For example, according to Hite and Seitz (2016), in the United States
where oil is so cheap, “[this] nation is used to abundance…and the creation of a new outlook
and new values is not easy” (p. 135). Secondly, those at the forefront of the oil and coal industry
are unlikely to promote more sustainable forms of energy because they have a financial interest
in the existing forms of energy. In fact, it is in their interest to actively discourage such ideas. As
Hite & Seitz state, oil companies “spend large amounts in elections supporting favoured
candidates” (2016, p. 135). In other words, due to their financial input, these companies can
influence government decisions on the type of energy a society will use. Therefore, it is evident
that the switch to renewable energy sources is impeded by societies’ reluctance to change and
the ability of energy corporations to affect government decisions.
This continued reliance on energy sources such as coal and particularly oil can have detrimental
effects on society. One of these effects occurs because these resources are diminishing and so it
has become necessary for energy intensive societies to rely on buying them from unstable areas
of the world such as the Middle East which are sometimes “torn by regional conflicts” (Hite &
Seitz, 2016, p. 133). In fact, Browne (2009) states that 61% of the world’s remaining oil
resources are in the Middle East and the Russian Federation. Another negative effect occurs
In addition to the social effects of the world’s reliance on non-renewable sources of energy are
the environmental effects. Many of these problems are brought about by carbon dioxide
emissions from fossil fuels. For example, there has been a 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit increase in
temperature from the Industrial Revolution to now due these emissions (Hite & Seitz, 2016, p.
171). This warming is causing innumerable negative environmental changes that could be
mitigated by renewable sources such as solar and wind power. These are relatively emission
free and therefore much more environmentally friendly. Another environmental problem
caused by these resources is pollution and the fact that one of the most utilized sources, oil, is
becoming scarcer means that companies are now extracting more difficult to obtain oil. These
sources such as tar sands, shale oil and extra heavy crude oil (Klare, 2011) are even more energy
intensive because the process of extraction is more complex therefore additionally burdensome
to the earth’s atmosphere. With this information in mind, a gradual transition to renewable,
non-polluting energy would seem to be the best course of action.
In conclusion, it seems that the reasons for delaying the transition to renewable energy are
understandable. However, not making the change because currently other options are more
expensive or because society and oil companies are too comfortable with the status quo are not
good enough reasons to postpone taking action. The effects of inaction are likely to prove
calamitous. In the words of Klare (2011):
If we don’t abandon a belief that unrestricted growth is our inalienable birthright and embrace the
genuine promise of renewable energy (with the necessary effort and investment that would make
such a commitment meaningful), the future is likely to prove grim indeed.
Cathy Lally, 2017
References
Browne, J. (2009). Proposal: The Energy Crisis and Climate Change. http://www.global-
economic-symposium.org/knowledgebase/the-global-environment/the-energy-crisis-
and-climate-change/proposals/the-energy-crisis-and-climate-change
Hite, K. A., & Seitz, J.L. (2016). Global Issues: An introduction. Wiley-Blackwell.
Klare, M. (2011, June 5). The Global Energy Crisis Deepens. Tom Dispatch.
http://www.tomdispatch.com/ blog/175400/
b) Now, in the body paragraphs, underline the topic sentences. Are there any supporting details for
each topic sentence?
c) Decide whether each body paragraph is discussing a cause or effect. Which words in each
paragraph helped you decide this?
Look at the conclusion. Remember that the conclusion of an essay needs to restate the main
ideas. New ideas are not introduced in the conclusion, although you may include
recommendations or a prediction. Try not to add in idioms or quotes from non-academic
sources. Have another look at ‘The Energy Crisis’ essay and decide if the conclusion contains a
summary of the main ideas. How has the writer concluded the essay?
When you plan your essay, it is important that you add in the information that you will use in
your conclusion.
d) Using the information from the questions above, decide which type of organisation is used in the
essay - block or chain?
• Look back at the statement for your essay on p. 95. Re-write the statement in your own words.
This will be your Thesis Statement.
The scope of an essay is the outline of the structure of the essay and it often follows the thesis
statement at the end of the introduction.
• Look at the introduction to “The Energy Crisis”, circle the thesis statement and underline the
scope.
• Look at the thesis statement you just wrote. Once you have planned the body paragraphs,
you will be able to add your scope, which will be based on the main idea of each paragraph.
I. Introduction
a. supporting point 1
b. supporting point 2
i. example/evidence/explanation (source, p #)
c. supporting point 3
i. example/evidence/explanation (source, p #)
Paragraph 2
a. supporting point 1
i. example/evidence/explanation (source, p #)
i. example/evidence/explanation (source, p #)
c. supporting point 3
i. example/evidence/explanation (source, p #)
a. supporting point 1
i. example/evidence/explanation (source, p #)
b. supporting point 2
i. example/evidence/explanation (source, p #)
c. supporting point 3
i. example/evidence/explanation (source, p #)
a. supporting point 1
i. example/evidence/explanation (source, p #)
b. supporting point 2
i. example/evidence/explanation (source, p #)
c. supporting point 3
i. example/evidence/explanation (source, p #)
III. Conclusion
Restate thesis:
Thesis statement: This essay will explore some of the reasons for this dependence on non-
renewable energy sources and the effects this has on society.
Scope Statement: In particular, the essay will discuss the easy availability of, and society’s
dependence on, these sources and the detrimental effects on society and the environment that
follow as a result.
1. Non-renewable sources of energy are still relatively cheap and available in comparison to some
renewable sources.
i) Oil is very cheap in the US so getting people to have a different perspective is difficult.
(Hite & Seitz, 2016, p. 135)
ii) Large corporations involved in the energy business want to maintain the status quo.
b) Corporations have the money to buy votes (Hite & Seitz, 2016, p. 135)
i) Companies spend large amounts in government elections. (Hite & Seitz, 2016, p. 135)
a) Because resources are diminishing, developed nations are relying more and more on
unstable regions of the world for resources (especially oil).
a) Non-renewable sources of energy and the production of carbon dioxide and global warming
ii) The relationship between ‘difficult to get’ sources of energy (oil) and increased levels of
pollution. Tar sands, shale oil and extra heavy crude (Klare, 2011)
You should now be ready to start planning your essay. Create a diagram (using free mind-mapping
tools online) or use the template provided to start planning your essay. Note, the template is also
available on Blackboard in Word.
Exercise 1: Look at this sample body paragraph from an essay on 'The Energy Crisis’
Topic sentence
Another reason why societies continue to favour non-renewable sources of energy is because people
are used to an endless supply of material goods due to cheap energy. Firstly, it is difficult to ask a
society that is used to being able to buy and consume whatever they want, to reduce their intake of
goods. For example, according to Hite and Seitz (2016), in the United States where oil is so cheap,
“[this] nation is used to abundance…and the creation of a new outlook and new values is not easy”.
(p. 135). Secondly, those at the forefront of the oil and coal industry are unlikely to promote more Author's
sustainable forms of energy because they have a financial interest in the existing forms of energy. In voice
fact, it is in their interest to actively discourage such ideas. As Hite & Seitz state, oil companies “spend
large amounts in elections supporting favoured candidates” (2016, p. 135). In other words, due to
their financial input, these companies can influence government decisions on the type of energy a Others voice
society will use. Therefore, it is evident that the switch to renewable energy sources is impeded by
societies’ reluctance to change and the ability of energy corporations to affect government decisions.
Identify the following in the paragraph above:
Paraphrase
a) Topic sentence (author’s own voice)
b) 2 or 3 supporting ideas (these introduce the evidence but are still in the author’s voice)
c) Evidence which can be data, statistics, examples or reasons (including the reference which
is from an outside voice but only 10% can be quoted – most should be paraphrased)
d) Explanation sentences to fully develop the idea if the example does not make it clear
enough.
e) Concluding sentence
f) Linking language to signpost the different sentences and link the ideas.
What is the function of each piece of linking language used? Eg. to introduce, to connect, to
explain.
4. Some countries are beginning to put d. ‘Oil companies use their huge financial
policies into place that will have a resources to influence government policy
positive impact on greenhouse gas on energy’ (Hite & Seitz, 2016, p. 133).
emissions.
5. Some alternative energies with great e. ‘The effect it [oil] is having on the Earth’s
potential have complications that reduce climate. … but also the increased health
their immediate viability. care costs associated with the burning of
petroleum, and the subsidies by the
government to the oil industry’ (Hite &
Seitz, 2016, p. 135).
6. Some of the big polluting industries have f. ‘China’s Twelfth Five-Year Plan set a
an impact on government decisions. course for the country to generate 15
percent of its energy from non-fossil fuel
sources’ (Hite & Seitz, 2016, p. 139).
Remember:
Quotations use the exact words of the author. You do not need to quote a whole sentence. In fact it
demonstrates skill when you integrate a partially quoted phrase into your own grammatical
sentence. Only 10% of your writing can be direct quotations.
Here is a model of how you could make a supporting point and fully develop it. This model uses
supporting point 1 with evidence c.
It is difficult to consider changing to less polluting energy, when the cost of alternative fuels is
considered. For example, ‘the cost of oil in the United States remains very low’ (Hite & Seitz, 2016, p.
130).
It is difficult to consider changing to less polluting energy, when the cost of alternative fuels is
considered. For example, ‘the cost of oil in the United States remains very low’ (Hite & Seitz, 2016, p.
130). This indicates that this country has a government subsidised barrier to changing from oil to low
emission fuels.
Some quotations are too long and the whole idea can be summarised and/or paraphrased.
Promotors of polluting energies, fail to take into account the hidden costs of these fuels. For example,
these consist of, subsidised oil, global warming and health costs that have increased as a direct result of
burning petroleum (Hite & Seitz, 2016, p. 135).
• Which 2 quotations could be used to develop a paragraph about a particular topic? 120~150words
1. “Each year the Earth receives from the sun about ten times the energy that is stored in all of its
fossil fuel and uranium reserves”. (Hite & Seitz, 2016, p. 151)
2. “Another problem with wind is that the choices of windy places in the world are relatively few
and unevenly distributed”. (Hite & Seitz, 2016, p. 150)
3. “A study of wind power in the United States… in 2010 concluded that wind power could replace
coal and natural gas for 20 to 30 percent of the electricity used by the eastern two-thirds of the
country by 2024”. (Hite & Seitz, 2016, p. 150)
4. “Natural gas is the cleanest fossil fuel, emitting 40 percent of the carbon dioxide emitted by coal.
(Hite & Seitz, 2016, p. 147)
Once you have written your paragraph, your teacher will show you a model paragraph. There are
many ways to use this information. Your topics and the way you use the information may be quite
different.
The thesis statement indicates your position. You need to identify the scope of the essay.
This topic needs to have a mechanism for organising the ideas that follow. In writing an essay that
looks at the causes and effects of global warming, it is likely that you will talk about several natural
causes of it in your paragraph.
Put the topic and the controlling idea together into one sentence to construct an effective topic
sentence.
Example:
Now it is quite easy to add the ideas you have developed, using effective signposting expressions to
guide your reader. For example:
Several natural phenomena contribute to the warming of the planet. The first of these is
solar activity.
Example:
Several natural phenomena contribute to the warming of the planet. The first of these is solar
activity. Solar activity can be seen as a natural activity that affects the surface temperature of the Earth.
According to Source (date), the energy of the sun directly influences climatic variations and has done
so throughout history. The earth has experienced a number of significant variations in climate which
are well documented and the increase and decrease in solar activity recorded correlates with the
changes in climate (Source, date).
At the end of the paragraph, try to write a concluding sentence summarising the main ideas.
Example:
It is therefore clear that natural phenomena such as the sun activity does significantly
contribute to the warming of the planet.
You can use this process to help you to develop further topic sentences, paragraphs and concluding
sentences.
Now, look at your chosen thesis statement and try to write a topic sentence (including both the topic
and controlling idea) for your first body paragraph. Note, you cannot use the examples given above in
your own paragraph.
Complete the activity below to create both the in-text and end-text referencing for your essay. The
UWA APA Referencing guide is included on Blackboard to help you answer the questions.
a) What is the end-text reference for the BBC article, ‘Humans Blamed for Climate Change’?
What is the in-text reference for ‘Humans Blamed for Climate Change’?
b) What is the end-text reference for the documentary, ‘The Great Global Warming
Swindle’?
c) What is the end-text reference for the TED Talk, ‘The Case for Optimism on Climate
Change’?
What is the in-text reference for ‘The Case for Optimism on Climate Change’?
d) What is the end-text reference for the documentary, ‘An Inconvenient Truth’?
Look at the article, ‘The Ultimate Meltdown’ on page 120 of this course book:
‘The Ultimate Meltdown’ was written by Brahic (2012), but you read it in UWA CELT (2020).
Therefore your in-text reference will be as follows: Brahic (2012, as cited in UWA CELT, 2020) argues
that...
and your end-text reference will be:
UWA CELT. (2020). Academic English and study skills bridging course: Course book 1. UWA Publishing.
Finally, remember that your Reference List must be in alphabetical order by family name of the
author/s.
a) Open the list of Cause-Effect Transition Signals in Blackboard and then look back at the essay,
‘The Energy Crisis’, and underline the transition signals used.
b) Which transition signals show the cause-effect relationship within the ideas in the paragraph?
c) Are there any transition signals that link the paragraphs together?
d) The following pairs of sentences have a cause-effect relationship. Using the transition signals on
the list, rewrite the sentences to form one sentence.
Smoking numbers are very high in many developing countries. Cigarettes are cheap and
i)
readily available.
Insomnia impacts millions of people in the Western world. More and more people are living
iii)
busier lives.
iv) Perth has experienced the coolest summer in more than 20 years. Water levels in dams
nearby are higher than the previous year.
Nowadays, many companies offer flexible or working from home arrangements for
v)
employees. Employees who embrace these options are often happier and can be more
productive.
Academic Integrity
UWA (Governance, n.d) defines Academic Integrity as “a core value of education and involves acting
with the principles of honesty, trust, fairness, and responsibility in learning, teaching and research,
and requires respect for knowledge and its development.”
What do you think this means? Discuss this with your classmates.
Now, look on Blackboard (Weekly Materials) and watch the video on academic honesty and
discuss with your class.
Have a look at the UWA CELT Academic Misconduct Policy (also on Blackboard) and talk about
what this means to you in the Bridging Course and in your future studies.
Plagiarism
Plagiarism refers to inadequate or incorrect referencing. It is also referred to as academic misconduct
and misuse of evidence.
Plagiarism occurs when authors do not reference sufficiently, reference in the wrong place or in the
wrong way or do not reference at all!
Important note:
Plagiarism is passing off someone else’s writing as your own - like stealing something that belongs to
someone else. It is a serious issue in academic circles. If you hand in an assignment that you were
supposed to write but did not write, you can suffer terrible consequences such as academic probation
or even expulsion from a college or university. Published plagiarised work can also be identified later
in your career, impeding or ending your career later in life.
Plagiarism is not always intentional. Sometimes you find information from a book, an article, or a
website that you believe is an excellent fact or support for your essay. However, if you do not put
quotation marks around the exact words or paraphrase the information, you are in effect stealing the
academic property of the original writer. In order to use source material correctly and avoid
plagiarism, learn the skills of paraphrasing, summarizing, and synthesizing and then apply correct
citation format.
Know very clearly what has to be referenced (anything that is not your own original thought –
even if it seems ‘obvious information’ or something that ‘everyone knows’).
Make a note of the bibliographic information (author, date, titles, place of publication, publisher)
of everything you read (in print and on the internet).
Avoid copying sections of your reading into your notes. Paraphrase it (put it into your own
words) before you write it down. This means that you have to understand it before you write it
down and that you are less likely to use the author’s material in your own work without
referencing it.
Make sure you have some thoughts of your own in your assignment. These do not have to be
earth- shattering. You can simply start with your observations of what you have read.
Use the literature as evidence to support or highlight your own ‘voice’. We provide examples of
what not to do as well as examples of what to aim for.
Look at the following examples of plagiarism to understand the different types of plagiarism and
misconduct.
Example 1
Original source
An important outcome of the earlier introduction of children into child care centres has been a
measurable improvement in levels of social development. These increases can be traced back
to the proposition that child care centres provide a more socially and intellectually stimulating
context for early childhood progression.
Plagiarised text:
Children who attend child care centres at an earlier age show a significant improvement in
levels of social progress. These improvements reflect the view that child care centres give
children a greater opportunity to mix with other children in a socially and intellectually
stimulating setting (Gibson, 2005).
This is plagiarism because, although it restates some of the ideas of the original, other words and
phrases in the attempted paraphrase are exactly the same as the original. In this case, the writer must
It should be noted that the writer is not claiming the ideas are her own because she has included an
in-text reference indicating the source of the ideas. She is, however, claiming the words of the original
source as her own words because she has not placed the phrases from the original in quotation marks
to indicate they are the words of the original source, or alternatively, rewritten the ideas from those
phrases in her own words.
Gibson (2005) argues that the earlier introduction of a child into child care facilities improves
the rate of the child’s social development. This is due to the greater social and intellectual
stimulation that is available to the child in this context which encourages early childhood
progression.
This text also changes some of the words but uses some phrases from the original. Making minor
changes to a phrase (e.g. changing ‘centre’ to ‘facilities ‘ and ‘more socially and intellectually
stimulating’ to ‘greater social and intellectual stimulation’), while keeping the majority of it the
same as the original, is not paraphrasing but plagiarism.
Gibson’s research (2005) indicates a recognisable increase in the capacity of children who
commence child care at an earlier age to interact socially. He argues that these findings are a
consequence of the richer, more varied relational and intellectual experiences that children
encounter in the child care context.
This text is the best attempted paraphrase because it restates completely the key ideas from the
original passage in the student’s own words. It also has an in-text reference.
Adapted from University of Western Australia, 2012
On the next page, integrate 2-3 of the given quotations into a well-developed, cohesive paragraph as
a practice for your in-class assessment. Make sure that you:
“...since the Industrial Revolution began (1850) the temperature of the Earth has increased about 1.5 degrees
Fahrenheit ... Since the 1980s, every decade has been warmer than the previous one, which represents the warmest
period since modern industrialisation (1850) and likely the warmest in the last 1,400 years.” (Hite & Seitz, 2016,
p.172).
“ ... if present trends continue – the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is expected to be double the preindustrial level
before 2100 ...” (Hite & Seitz, 2016, p.172).
“ Average temperatures of the Arctic winters have risen about 10 degrees Fahrenheit over the past 30 years ....
annual Arctic sea ice has shrunk by about 4 percent per decade ...” (Hite & Seitz, 2016, p.174).
“ Around 25 percent of the world's CO2 emissions are being absorbed into the seas and oceans where it converts
into carbonic acid. This is lowering the pH of the oceans and affecting its chemistry. For example, the concentration
of the carbonate ions is decreasing and it is linked to the ability of many marine organisms to build reefs and shells”
(Hite & Seitz, 2016, p.176).
“ Some unique and threatened systems, including ecosystems and cultures, are already at risk from climate change.
... The number of such systems at risk of severe consequences is higher with additional warming of around 1 ºC.
Many species and systems with limited adaptive capacity are subject to very high risks with additional warming of
2 ºC, particularly Arctic-sea-ice and coral-reef systems” (Hite & Seitz, 2016, p.177).
“... the ice pack had shrunk to 4.1 million square kilometres. That is 70,000 km2 smaller than the 2007 low ...”(UWA
CELT, 2016, p.131).
“These storms carry heat from the lower latitudes, and stir up the highly stratified Arctic Ocean waters, bringing
warm bottom waters up to the surface, where they cause further melting of the floating ice...” (UWA CELT, 2016,
p.131).
For at least 3 million years, and most like 13 million, says Louis Fortier of the University of Laval in
Quebec City, Canada, the Arctic Ocean has been covered by a thick, floating Ice cap, the breadth of
which fluctuates with the seasons and currents. Each summer, the cap shrinks to an annual minimum
in mid-September before growing out again, fuelled by plummeting winter temperatures and long
nights.
Climate change has had more of an impact here than anywhere else on the earth. Air temperatures
are rising twice as fast as the global average, and models predict that the region could see temperatures
rise by between 6°C and 14°C by 2100, depending on how fast the sea ice disappears. Nobody believes
the
world’s northern ice cap could survive such scorching summers.
Less ice in the Arctic means more light enters the ocean beneath, fuelling more life, but it also means
warmer temperatures and more energy released into the atmosphere. That energy drives cyclones,
which generate mammoth waves capable of ripping into the ice pack, degrading it further. The
consequences are not good for this highly specialised environment, and the knock on effects for the
rest of us could be severe.
Even the NSIDC’s figures for ice coverage, from satellite data, could be overestimations, as satellite
images cannot distinguish between pack ice and slushy, “rotten” ice (Geophysical Research Letters, doi.
org/dht5wr).
Measurements of ice thickness are also worrying. From 1979 to 2000, the average volume of Arctic
ice in September was 12,000 cubic kilometres. This year, it is less than 5000 cubic kilometres. “In
plain words,” says Fortier, “we are three quarters of the way to a summertime ice-free Arctic Ocean,
with all the climatic, geopolitical, environmental and economic consequences.”
Several factors are to blame. Warm spring temperatures didn’t help, then on 5 August [2012] a major
cyclone crossed into the Arctic Circle. Such events used to be rare, but are now more frequent, stronger
and last longer than before, says Ziandong Zhang at the University of Alaska Fairbanks (Journal of
Climate, doi.org/d2d6n6).
These storms carry heat from the lower latitudes, and stir up the highly stratified Arctic Ocean waters,
bringing warm bottom waters up to the surface, where they cause further melting of the floating ice.
More dramatic is the storms’ direct physical influence. With the Arctic water no longer protected by
thick multiyear ice, near-hurricane force winds shove it around, forming powerful waves capable of
shredding any ice floes they encounter.
Smaller pieces melt faster, so the researchers believe cyclones are an important positive feedback
mechanism, further reducing the pack ice (Journal of Geophysical Research – Oceans, doi.org/h7m)
Zhang points out that cyclones also carry clouds, which boost downward radiation. He says the August
cyclone probably contributed to this year’s low. Bill Chapman at the University of Illinois at Urbana-
Champaign agrees. “Sea-ice area decreased rapidly during the period of the storm,” he says, “but it was
decreasing rapidly already during the height of this melt season.”
The upheaval will not be confined to the Arctic Circle. The atmospheric temperature gradient between
the hot tropics and the cold poles powers much of our planet’s weather and water cycles. It drives the
jet stream, for instance, which pushes global weather systems, it fuels the winds that power ocean
currents, and it distributes moisture around the planet.
3. Why was 2012 likely to have been a ‘landmark year’? What happened in 2007?
the summer thaw opened the North-West Passage for the first time in living memory.
4. Are there any positive aspects of melting Arctic ice mentioned in the text? If so, what are they?
What are the negatives?
5. What are some of the reasons given for 2012’s low volume of Arctic ice?
9. What do you think the author means by the phrase ‘flipped on its head’?
Strong language
The report, produced by a team tasked with assessing the science of climate change, was
intended to be the definitive summary of climatic shifts facing the world in the coming years.
IPCC PROJECTIONS
• Probable temperature rise between 1.8C and 4C
• Possible temperature rise between 1.1C and 6.4C
• Sea level most likely to rise by 28-43cm
• Arctic summer sea ice disappears in second half of century
• Increase in heatwaves very likely
• Increase in tropical storm intensity likely
The agency said that it would use stronger language to assess humanity's influence on climatic
change than it had previously done. In 2001, it said that it was "likely" that human activities
lay behind the trends observed at various parts of the planet; "likely" in IPCC terminology
means between 66% and 90% probability.
Now, the panel concluded that it was at least 90% certain that human emissions of greenhouse
gases rather than natural variations are warming the planet's surface. They projected that
temperatures would probably rise by between 1.8C and 4C, though increases as small as 1.1C
(2F) or as large as 6.4C (11.5F) were possible. In 2001, using different methodology, the
numbers were 1.4 (2.5F) and 5.8C (10.4F).
As for climate change influencing the intensity of tropical storms in some areas of the world,
the IPCC concluded that it was likely - meaning a greater probability than 66% - that rising
temperatures were a factor.
'Unequivocal'
Dr Rajendra Pachauri, the IPCC chairman, said: "It is extremely encouraging in that the science
has moved on from what was possible in the Third Assessment Report. "If you see the extent
to which human activities are influencing the climate system, the options for mitigating
greenhouse gas emissions appear in a different light, because you can see what the costs of
inaction are," he told delegates in Paris. Achim Steiner, executive director of the United Nations
Environment Programme (UNEP), said the findings marked a historical landmark in the debate
about whether humans were affecting the state of the atmosphere. "It is an unequivocal series
of evidence [showing that] fossil fuel burning and land use change are affecting the climate on
our planet." He added: "If you are an African child born in 2007, by the time you are 50 years
old you may be faced with disease and new levels of drought." He said that he hoped the IPCC
report would galvanise national governments into action.
At variance
But a study published on the eve of the IPCC report suggested that the international body's
previous reports may have actually been too conservative.
Writing in the journal Science, an international group of scientists concluded that temperatures
and sea levels had been rising at or above the maximum rates proposed in the last report, which
was published in 2001. The paper compared the 2001 projections on temperature and sea level
change report with what has actually happened. The models had forecasted a temperature rise
between about 0.15C-0.35C (0.27-0.63F) over this period. The actual rise of 0.33C (0.59F) was
very close to the top of the IPCC's range.
A more dramatic picture emerged from the sea level comparison. The actual average level,
measured by tide gauges and satellites, had risen faster than the intergovernmental panel of
scientists predicted it would.
The IPCC's full climate science report will be released later in the year, as will other chapters
looking at the probable impacts of climate change, options for adapting to those impacts, and
possible routes to reducing emissions of greenhouse gases.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/science/nature/6321351.stm
Figure 3.2: An ‘atmospheric CO2 budget’ reveals the amount of carbon in the net amounts of CO2 entering,
leaving and accumulating in the atmosphere. The upper panel shows the inflows of CO2 to the atmosphere from
fossil fuel emissions (red) and net land use change (orange), together with the net annual CO2 accumulation in the
atmosphere (pale blue). The lower panel shows the outflows of CO2 from the atmosphere to the ocean (dark blue)
and to plants on land (green). The accumulation in the atmosphere is the difference between the sum of the two
emissions and the sum of the two sinks Source: Working Group for this document, with data from the Global Carbon
Project. (www.globalcarbonproject.org/)
Figure 3.3: CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels have continued to increase over recent years. The black
dots show observed CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and other industrial processes (mainly cement manufacture);
the coloured lines represent four future pathways as envisaged in 2006 for low to high emissions. Observed
emissions are tracking the highest-emission pathway. Source: Working Group for this document, with data from
the Global Carbon Project.
Although fossil-fuel emissions of CO2 have grown fairly steadily, the upward march of the
CO2 concentration in the atmosphere varies from year to year. This is caused mainly by the effects of
weather variability on vegetation, and also by sporadic volcanic activity: major volcanic eruptions
have a significant indirect influence on atmospheric CO2 concentrations, causing temporary
drawdown of CO2 through the promotion of plant growth by the light-scattering and cooling effects
of volcanic haze. By contrast, the direct contribution of volcanic emissions to atmospheric CO2 is
negligible, amounting to around 1% of current human induced emissions.
Figure 3.4: Human-induced drivers of climate change have been much larger than natural drivers over the
last century. The strength of these drivers, which are changing the long-term energy balance of the planet, is
measured in Watts per square metre (see also Figure 1.1). Orange and green bars respectively indicate human and
natural drivers; error bars indicate 5-95% uncertainties. The solar effect (shown in green) is very small. Volcanic
effects are highly variable in time (see text) and are not shown here. Source: Working Group for this document,
with data from IPCC (2013), Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group 1, Chapter 8 Supplementary Material.
In comparison with other influences, the effects of solar variations on present global warming are
small. Indirect estimates suggest that changes in the brightness of the Sun have contributed only a
few percent of the global warming since 1750. Direct measurements show a decreasing solar intensity
over recent decades, opposite to what would be required to explain the observed warming. Solar
activity has declined significantly over the last few years, and some estimates suggest that weak
activity will continue for another few decades, in contrast with strong activity through the 20th
century. Nevertheless, the possible effects on warming are modest compared with anthropogenic
influences.
Figure 3.5: Climate models can correctly replicate recent warming only if they include human
influences. Comparison of observed changes (black lines) in global temperatures (°C) over land (left) and land
plus ocean (right) with model projections including both natural plus human influences (red lines) and natural
influences only (blue lines). Shadings around model results indicate 5-95% confidence bands. Adapted from IPCC
(2013), Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group 1, Figure 10.21.
It is also possible to distinguish the effects of different human and natural influences on climate by
studying particular characteristics of their effects. For example, it was predicted more than a century
ago that increases in CO2 would trap more heat near the surface and also make the stratosphere
colder. In recent years, satellite and other measurements have provided strong evidence that the
upper atmosphere has cooled and the lower atmosphere has warmed significantly—the predicted
consequence of extra greenhouse gases. This supports the inference that the observed nearsurface
warming is due primarily to an enhanced greenhouse effect rather than, say, an increase in the
brightness of the Sun.
Past decadal trends in Australian rainfall cannot yet be clearly separated from natural climate
variations, except in southwest Western Australia where a significant observed decline in rainfall has
been attributed to human influences on the climate system.
There has very likely been net uptake of CO2 by Australian vegetation, consistent with global uptake
of CO2 by vegetation on land (Figure 3.2). This has been accompanied by increases in the greenness
of Australian vegetation, which is also consistent with global trends.
https://www.science.org.au/learning/general-audience/science-climate-change/3-are-human-activities-
causing-climate-change
Do you feel confident about identifying and using the genre of explanation?