Flood Hazard Mapping in Sinai Region

1 Construction and Building Department, College of Engineering & Technology, Arab Acade my for Science, Technology & Maritime
Transport, Cairo, Egypt2 Water Resources Research Institute, Cairo, Egypt

Abstract: This study aims at defining the areas with potential flood risk in Egypt. Different
zones have been studied and detailed analysis was carried for the Sinai region. Although
Sinai is located in an arid region, its basins could receive a huge amount of rainfall during
specific storm events. These amounts of water lead to flash floods that threaten lives,
property and other assets. This research uses GIS techniques to produce a potential flood
hazard map and integrates all parameters that contribute to the formation of flash floods in
the watersheds of this region. The outcome of the study shows that 5% of the basins have
very high susceptibility of flooding; about 25% have high susceptibility; about 5% have high-
medium susceptibility; and about 20% have medium susceptibility. Basins of very high and
high flood risk are delineated and classified. They require detailed studies and action plans to
protect the local population from flood hazard.
Keywords: flood hazard, Sinai, watershed, surface runoff, flash flood, hazard mapping

1. Introduction
Natural hazards are cyclic natural phenomena that threaten lives, property and assets. They
refer to all atmospheric, hydrologic and geologic phenomena that have the potential risk to
adversely affect humans, property and social activities because of their severity, frequency
and location. Climatic hazards are extreme weather events that cause damage and losses such
as cyclones, storms and subsequent floods. Flash floods are considered to be one of the worst
weather-related natural disasters. They are dangerous because they are sudden and are highly
unpredictable following brief spells of heavy rain. Flood hazard seems to be increasing as
climate change takes effect. Floods cause about one third of all deaths, one third of all
injuries and one third of all damage from natural disasters (Askew, 1999). As reported in
Egypt’s Review: In depth Assessment of Progress in Disaster Risk Reduction (CMDRS,
2008), floods are the most widely distributed natural risk to life compared to all natural risks.
The Sinai region, characterized by its plains and high mountains, is identified as a flood
prone area where flash floods are recorded frequently and result in significant infrastructure
damage, population displacement and sometimes loss of life. Most of the flood management
strategies in this area have been geared towards preventing flood by dam construction.
However, these dams’ capacities are not sufficient to cover the 100-year return period rainfall
and very little attention is paid on land use planning to reduce the risk of flood disasters.

2. Description of the Study Area

Sinai Peninsula (Sinai) is a triangular peninsula occupying an area of 61,000 km2. It is
situated in the northeastern part of Egypt and bounded by the Gulf of Suez to the west, the
Gulf of Aqaba to the east and the Mediterranean Sea to the north.
2.1 TOPOGRAPHY
The topography of Sinai has an elevation difference of 2640 m between its highest point and
lowest point. The elevation of the northern part of Sinai ranges from 1626 m above sea level
to the lowest level at the Mediterranean Sea. The elevation of the southern part of Sinai
ranges from 2640 m above sea level to the lowest level at the Gulf of Suez and Gulf of
Aqaba. The elevation of the peninsula is shown in Figure 1 as extracted from a digital
elevation model (DEM) with point data at 30m intervals.

Figure 1: Digital Elevation Model representing Sinai topography

2.2 CLIMATE
The climate is characterized in general by volatile rainy winters and hot and dry summers. In
autumn and spring, the climate is less volatile than winter, with sometimes heavy rainfall. In
winter, rainfall on the northern region close to Mediterranean Sea reaches its maximum.
According to the Water Resources Research Institute’s and the Egyptian Meteorological
Authority’s rainfall measurement stations (see Figure 2), average rainfall varies from 60 mm
to 100 mm per year near the Mediterranean Sea and decreases towards the West. The range
of average annual rainfall in the south is between 30 mm and 60 mm.
Figure 2: Thiessen polygon map of Sinai.

To estimate the amount of rainfall for a 50-year return period, statistical software (Hyfran) is
used to analyse all available records of maximum yearly rainfall from each rainfall
measurement station. Figure 3 shows the statisticalanalysis of Nekhl Station as an example,
while Figure 4 shows the maximum daily storm rainfall for a 50-year return period of all
stations for Sinai.
Figure 3: Statistical analysis of Nekhl Station.

Figure 4: Isohyetal map of rainfall heights for 50-year return period in Sinai
Figure 5: Geological setting for Sinai

2.3 GEOLOGY
A variety of soils can be found in Sinai. The causes for this variety are related to the extreme
conditions that formed these soils: climate, arid in the south and wet in the mountainous ridge
and the Mediterranean Seaside. Physical weathering from both water and wind also modified
the soils. Variable geology formation is shown in Figure (5); it includes sedimentary rocks,
volcanic rocks, granite rocks, sand dunes, alluvium, limestone, sabkha (i.e. salt flat), etc. Dif-
ferent topography covers the region varying from 5m above the Mediterranean sea level in
the north of Sinai to 2640m in south-east.

3. Delineation of the Watersheds in the Study Area

To identify the watersheds for the surface, the elevations of all points on the surface are
collected. These values are extrapolated from the global Digital Elevation Model. Using
DEM with 30 m intervals, all watersheds of the Sinai were delineated. The watersheds are
classified according to their areas (see Figure 6) and the geomorphology characteristics for
each watershed are used. The characteristics for each basin are summarized in Table 1 and
include the area, length, slope, perimeter, maximum stream length, maximum stream slope
and mean elevation of the basin.

Figure 6: Delineated watersheds of Sinai classified by the area of the basin

Table 1: The geomorphology characteristics of the basins of Sinai

4. Surface Runoff
All watersheds of Sinai are analyzed using the Watershed Modeling System (WMS)
hydrologic model. Due to lack of runoff measurement, the Soil Conservation Services (SCS)
Unit Hydrograph method is used to compute the runoff hydrographs. Rainfall data for 50-
year design storm is entered into the HEC-1 hydrologic model in the WMS software. For the
SCS method, the land use and soil type maps are used to estimate the curve number that
estimates the water losses from each basin. The simulation carried for the runoff volumes in
each watershed and the corresponding hydrograph is determined.

Figure 7: Runoff volumes for design storm 50-year return period.

As a result of the hydrological analysis, runoff volumes estimated for design storm of 50-year
return period are shown in Figure 7. This runoff volume ranges from 2 to 132 million m³.
Figures 8 and 9 show the hydrograph for the two largest basins in Sinai, Al Arish & Watier
Wadi, respectively. Another output from the hydrograph is the discharge for all basins. The
watersheds discharge range from 26 m³/s to 1717 m³/s. Figure 10 shows all watersheds
discharge.
Figure 8: Runoff hydrograph at 50 -year return period for Al Arish basin.

Figure 9: Runoff hydrograph at 50 -year return period for Watier basin.

5. Mapping of Hazard Areas

The term hazard identifies a potential event that could cause damage to property. The
selection of criteria that has spatial reference is an important step in decision analysis
(Malczewski, 1996). The most important factors that affect flash floods in every watershed
are rainfall height, basin slope, drainage density, size of watershed, land use and the soil type
(Cruden and Varnes, 1996; Henderson et al. 1996; National Weather, 2006).
Flash floods occur when rainfall is too intense, the infiltration of the ground is low and high
slope of the watershed exists. Therefore, the selected critical factors are rainfall height and
ground infiltration. The infiltration capacity is the ability of the ground to quickly absorb
water. It has a direct impact on the quantity of the runoff and it is related to the soil type of
the study area. Another factor affecting the runoff volume is the land use. Soil covered by
impervious material like roads have no infiltration capacity and result in a much higher risk
of flood hazards than soils that are vegetated. However, the combination of soil type and land
use is expressed by a soil conservation system curve number (Chow et al.1988).
Each factor is weighted based on its estimated significance in causing floods (Pramojanee et
al., 2001):

Maximum daily rainfall amount for a 50-year return period (Factor weight = 3)
Slope of the basin (Factor weight = 2)
Type of soil and land use (Factor weight = 1)
Figure 10: Sinai watersheds discharge.

Each factor was divided into four classes (e.g. very high, high, medium, low) and each was
assigned a score (class weight) according to the estimated significance in causing flooding
(i.e. 8, 6, 4, 2). The total weight used for considering the probability of flooding is calculated
by the equation:
Total weight of each factor = factor weight * class weight

A summary of the total weights is shown in Table 2. For example, rainfall of 65 mm gives a
weight of 18 towards the final value (a factor weight of 3 multiplied by the weight class of 6).

Table 2: The class weights, factor weights and total weights used to determine hazard risk.

Hazard in the present study is estimated from the total sum of the weight of each selected
factor. The flood hazard areas are defined according to these values as follows:
Very high risk = Area with total weight > 40
High risk = Area with total weight 30 – 40
Moderate risk = Area with total weight 20 – 29
Low risk = Area with total weight < 20

For example, an area with 40mm of rainfall (weight = 12), a basin slope of 25% (weight =
16) and a curve number of 65 (weight = 4) gives a total weight of 32, defining this area as
one with a high risk of flash floods.
Figure 11: Flash Flood Hazard Map.

The overlaying of all maps and calculation of the total weight were obtained by applying
ARC/INFO and using raster calculator in ARC-GIS. According

Figure 12: Flash Flood Hazard Map with schools and roads.

to these layers and calculation, the Flash Flood Hazard Map was produced as shown in Figure
11. Figure 12 shows the locations of schools and roads in Sinai and the intersection between
both maps indicate the vulnerability of such structures.
6. Conclusions
Large amounts of data were collected for the Sinai region in Egypt in order to study the
exposure of important structures to flash flood hazards. The Watershed Modeling System
Hydrologic model has been applied to analyze and simulate the surface runoff storms using
HEC-1 model. GIS techniques have been used to create flood risk or hazard maps. This study
has developed a systematic methodology for estimating flood hazard areas using the GIS
program. The flood hazard map from this study can be used to identify zones of Sinai region
that are prone to flooding and to design flood preventing structures and plan new land use for
future development.

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