Atmospheric Pollution Research 12 (2021) 101115

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Atmospheric Pollution Research

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/apr

Evaluating the CO2 emission reduction effect of China’s battery electric

vehicle promotion efforts
Da Liu a, b, Linlin Xu a, Umma Habiba Sadia a, Hui Wang a, *
a
School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Changping, Beijing, 102206, China
b
Beijing Key Laboratory of New Energy and Low-Carbon Development (North China Electric Power University), Changping, Beijing, 102206, China

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: The rapid development of fuel vehicles (FVs) exacerbated greenhouse gas emissions. The Chinese government
Battery electric vehicles launched a series of policies to promote battery electric vehicles (BEVs) to slow down the greenhouse effect. Zero
Well-to-Wheel emissions of BEVs have been achieved in the driving phase but not in the charging phase. Whether BEVs can
CO2 emission reduction
achieve emission reduction needs to be further verified compared with FVs.
Renewable portfolio standard
The paper considered evaluating the CO2 emission reduction effects after the promotion of BEVs by the
Chinese government, which adopted the Well-to-Wheel (WTW) approach. Furthermore, the CO2 emission
reduction impact factors of BEVs would be verified by sensitivity analysis with the number of BEVs and the
Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS).
The results show that BEV emission reductions can reach 4.15 million tons by 2020, the CO2 emission re­
ductions are mainly distributed in the areas with a high RPS ratio, such as East China, and the emission reduction
of battery electric buses (BEBs) is better than private battery electric cars (PBECs) and battery electric taxis
(BETs). The emission reduction of the three categories of BEVs is affected by the number of BEVs and the RPS.

vehicles (BEVs). The Chinese government has launched a series of pol­

1. Introduction
Climate change and air pollution issues are worldwide concerns. The
growing international consumption of fossil energy has resulted in
excessive emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2). Global energy consump­
tion in 2018 increased nearly twice the average rate of growth in 2010,
which exacerbating the impact on the environment (Inter­
national-Energy-Agency, 2018). The transportation sector is one of the
primary sources of CO2 emissions. The CO2 emissions of the global
transportation sector are estimated to account for more than 20% of the
total by 2020. China has the most significant CO2 emissions and car
consumption (Luo et al., 2012). So far, the National Development and
Reform Commission of China reports showed that the number of vehi­
cles in China had reached 260 million. Motor vehicles accounted for
about 8% of total CO2 emissions in the proportion of China’s CO2
emissions (KOE Environmental Consultancy, 2020). The CO2 emissions
and environmental pollution are significant challenges with the
continuing increase in car consumption in China.
The Chinese government attempts to reduce CO2 emissions of the
transportation sector by promoting the consumption of battery electric
icies since 2018, including the Blue Sky Protection Campaign (BSP), which
refining each province’s 2020 BEVs promotion plan, especially battery
electric buses (BEBs) and battery electric taxis (BETs) in the public
transportation sector, and private battery electric cars (PBECs) in the
private transportation sector.
The BEVs do not generate CO2 directly with low noise and high en­
ergy efficiency compared with fuel vehicles (FVs) (Zhang, 2016). Some
issues should be further studied, such as whether the BEVs generate less
CO2 emissions than FVs, whether there are differences in emission
reduction between regions with diverse energy structures, whether there
are differences in emission reduction effects between different vehicle
categories. The paper attempts to study these issues by evaluating the
emission reduction effects of BEVs under the promotion policies, then
analyzing the possible reduction of CO2 emissions through three aspects:
region, province, and three categories of BEVs.
There are two opposite consequences proposed by existing studies
that BEVs can significantly reduce CO2 emission or not (Xu et al., 2021).
The production of a large number of batteries could generate a large
amount of CO2 emissions (Kawamoto et al., 2019). The use of BEVs to
replace diesel vehicles will lead to a 25.1% increase in CO2 emissions

Peer review under responsibility of Turkish National Committee for Air Pollution Research and Control.
* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: wanghuibd@163.com (H. Wang).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apr.2021.101115
Received 15 December 2020; Received in revised form 4 June 2021; Accepted 7 June 2021
Available online 22 June 2021
1309-1042/© 2021 Turkish National Committee for Air Pollution Research and Control. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
D. Liu et al. Atmospheric Pollution Research 12 (2021) 101115

Abbreviations τ The conversion proportion of PBECs

El,total Total social electricity consumption ofl th province
CO2 Carbon Dioxide Tpower BEVs charging efficiency
BSP Blue Sky Protection Campaign Tloss The transmission and distribution loss factor
BEV Battery Electric Vehicle Tfuel Fuel transfer efficiency
NEV New Energy Vehicle S Standard coal consumption of power supply
EV Electric Vehicle Qi The number of ith category vehicle
FV Fuel Vehicle Mi Average mileage per 100 km of ith category vehicle
ICEV Internal Combustion Electric Vehicle αbev,i Power consumption per 100 km of ith category vehicle
BEB Battery Electric Bus αfv,i Fuel consumption per 100 km of ith category vehicle
PBEC Private Battery Electric Car CWTW,bev CO2 emissions from BEVs in the WTW phase
BET Battery Electric Taxi CWTT,fv CO2 emissions from FVs in the WTT phase
RPS Renewable Portfolio Standard CTTW,fv CO2 emissions from FVs in the TTW phase
WTW Well to Wheel
ΔRi CO2 emission reduction
WTT Well to Tank
δ CO2 emissions from petroleum refining
TTW Tank to Wheel
εj The volumetric heating value of the j th fuel
LCA Life Cycle Assessment
fl Provincial grid carbon emission factors of l th province
nkt The elastic coefficient with the kth fuel vehicle in the t th
αl The RPS of l th province
year
β Carbon content
θkt The growth rate of vehicle ownership of the k th fuel
γ CO2 oxidation rate
vehicle in the t th year
ρj The density of jth fuel
ωkt The GDP growth rate of thek th fuel vehicle in the t th year
μj The carbon emission factor of jth fuel
NBkt The number of BEVs in the k th fuel vehicle in thet th year
Nkt The number of FVs in the k th fuel vehicle in the t th year m CO2 molecular weight
NPt The number of PBECs in the t th year n C molecular weight
Nt The number of the charging pile in the t th year

from the perspective of full-cycle energy efficiency (Kong et al., 2012).
The energy consumption of the entire manufacturing process affects the
CO2 emissions of BEVs.
On the contrary, some studies suggested that BEVs help CO2 emission
reduction from the perspective of energy efficiency (Alimujiang and
Jiang, 2020; Kolbe, 2019). The BEVs implement the life cycle assessment
(LCA) method to estimate the environmental effects of BEVs (Ke et al.,
2017; Rapa et al., 2020). (Yang et al., 2021) argued that the BEV life
cycle can reduce CO2 emissions compared with internal combustion
electric vehicles (ICEVs). “Well-to-Wheel” (WTW) is also widely used to
evaluate the energy efficiency and impact of the environment (Li et al.,
2019; Liu et al., 2021). (Lajunen and Lipman, 2016) analyzed that BEBs
may significantly reduce by 75% CO2 emissions by adopting the
well-to-wheel method.
Some studies assessed the CO2 emissions of BEVs from the perspec­
tive of the electricity generation mix (Ensslen et al., 2017; Falcão et al.,
2017; Wolfram and Wiedmann, 2017; Zheng et al., 2020). (Teixeira and
Sodré, 2018) argued that the CO2 emissions of BEVs are 10–26 times
lower than ICEVs by hydroelectric power is replaced by coal-fired power
even in a worst-case scenario (Jochem et al., 2015). found that
controlled charging may have to reduce the CO2 emissions by using the
electricity generation mix, and optimizing energy system model. Ran­
garaju et al. (2015) believed that the CO2 emissions performance of BEV
could be affected by the short-term and long-term fluctuations in the
electricity mix. Moreover, the higher the proportion of clean energy
power generation, the greater the emission reduction potential of BEVs
(Saint Akadiri et al., 2020; Lyu et al., 2020). In conclusion, the CO2
emissions of BEVs are closely related to energy consumption, charging
strategy, and grid power generation structure.
Different vehicle categories have different reduction emission effects
(Karplus et al., 2010; Zhou et al., 2016; Luna et al., 2020). Some scholars
analyzed the emission reduction effects of BEBs or BETs by using
feasibility analysis (Safdar et al., 2017), scenario-based models (Kufeo­
glu and Hong, 2020). (He et al., 2018) showed that BEBs can reduce
10%–40% of CO2 emissions under complex real-world usage patterns.
The CO2 emissions of BEVs are mainly analyzed in terms of the LCA,
battery type, charging method, and so on. A large number of studies
have conducted a complete analysis of the emission reduction effects of
BEVs. However, only a few studies had focused on the impact of
Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) on CO2 emissions. RPS is a state-
level policy that requires electric utilities or a grid to contain a certain
proportion of renewable energy. Also, there are few studies on the
comparative analysis of different provinces and vehicle categories. It is
necessary to evaluate the CO2 emission reduction effects through three
aspects: region, province, and three categories of BEVs. Therefore, the
CO2 emission of BEVs is evaluated by the WTW energy cycle and
compare with the FVs to quantify the emission reduction effects of re­
gions, provinces, three categories of BEVs. The evaluations are based on
the BSP issued by the Chinese government. The number of BEVs is
calculated according to the newly increased proportion in the BSP, the
number of FVs is the same as the number of BEVs, and the emission
reduction potential is analyzed based on the emission difference of the
FVs and BEVs.
The first contribution of the study is to assess the environmental
impact of different power generation structures in China by the RPS. The
second contribution is to evaluate and compare the emission reduction
effects of BEVs through three aspects: region, province, and three cate­
gories of BEVs. The results reveal whether different categories of BEVs
can reduce CO2 emissions and how much. The third contribution is that
the CO2 emission reduction impact factors of BEVs can be verified by
sensitivity analysis with the number of BEVs and the RPS. In general, the
study will shed light on policymaking to improve the environmental
performance of BEVs.
The rest of the paper is organized as follows: Section 2 introduces the
Methodology and Data sources. Results and analysis are presented in
Section 3. Section 4 introduces the Discussion. Finally, conclusions are
presented in Section 5.

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2. Methodology and Data sources gasoline and diesel.

2.1. Research framework
The research framework of the work is divided into three parts, as
shown in Fig. 1. Part One is to convert the number of FVs into the
number of BEVs for private cars, buses, taxis, respectively. We predict
the number of fuel buses and fuel taxis, convert the number of FVs to
BEVs based on the newly increased proportion in the BSP. The number of
PBECs is calculated based on the proportion of BEVs and charging piles
in the development guidelines for EVs charging infrastructure in 2015-2020.
Part Two is the CO2 emission calculation between the BEVs and FVs,
instead of replacing FVs with BEVs. The CO2 emissions are evaluated
based on the WTW framework, then compare BEVs with the same
mileage and number of FVs to obtain the CO2 emission reduction.
Part Three is the analysis of CO2 emission reduction results. It starts
from six aspects: the impact of the RPS on provincial grid carbon
emission factors, emission reduction trends, regional and provincial
emission reduction, sensitivity analysis, and policy suggestions.
2.2. Well-to-wheel approach
The Well-to-wheel (WTW) approach is applied to assess vehicle fuel
use. The approach is divided into two stages: the fuel production stage
(or well-to-tank, WTT) and the fuel combustion stage (or tank-to-wheel,
TTW) (Nocera and Cavallaro, 2016). The WTT includes the extraction,
transportation, and conversion of fuel. The TTW includes the use of fuel.
The WTW approach focuses on the life cycle of fuel consumed by the
vehicle, without considering the manufacturing, scrapping, and recy­
cling of the vehicle (Wang, 2002).
2.2.1. Estimation of the CO2 emission reductions from 2015 to 2020
Equation (1)describes the CO2 emissions from FVs in the WTT phase.
Equation (2) represents the CO2 emissions from FVs in the TTW phase.
The specific data and calculation process is shown in Tables 1 and 2.
CWTT,fv = δ × εj × αfv,i × Mi (1)
Qi × Mi × αfv,i × ρj × μj
CTTW,fv = (2)
Tfuel
where CWTT,fv represents the CO2 emissions from FVs in the WTT phase,
CTTW,fv represents the CO2 emissions from FVs in the TTW phase, δ
represents the CO2 emissions from petroleum refining, εj represents the
volumetric heating value of the j th fuel, αfv,i represents fuel consump­
tion per 100 km of ith category vehicle, Mi represents the average
mileage per 100 km of ith category vehicle, Qi represents the number of
ith category vehicle, ρj represents the density of jth fuel, μj represents the
carbon emission factor of jth fuel, Tfuel represents the fuel transfer
efficiency.
The CO2 emissions of three categories of BEVs are evaluated from
2015 to 2020 by the WTW approach. The power source of BEVs is
electric energy. The generation and transportation of BEV electric en­
ergy belong to the WTT stage. We consider an average transmission and
distribution loss factor during electric energy transportation. The
charging and the generation of the kinetic energy of BEV belong to the
TTW phase. Equation (3) describes the CO2 emissions from BEVs in the
WTW phase. The specific data and calculation process is shown in
Table 3.
Qi × Mi × αbev,i × fl
CWTW,bev = (3)
Tpower × (1 − Tloss )
where CWTW,bev represents the CO2 emissions from BEVs in the WTW

(1) Estimation of the CO2 emissions of FVs in the WTW phase Table 1
The specific data and calculation process of Equation (1).
The CO2 emissions of three categories of FVs are evaluated from Data Value
2015 to 2020 by the WTW approach. The CO2 emissions of FVs in the
CO2 emissions from petroleum refining See Table 11
WTW phase include three parts: fuel production, transportation, and The volumetric heating value of fuel See Table 11
combustion. The production and transportation of fuel belong to the Fuel consumption per 100 km See SM (Table S3)
WTT phase, and the combustion of fuel belongs to the TTW phase during Average mileage per 100 km See SM (Table S3)
the driving. The calculation of CO2 emissions for FVs contains two fuels:

Fig. 1. Research framework.

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D. Liu et al. Atmospheric Pollution Research 12 (2021) 101115

Table 2 where nkt represents the elastic coefficient with the kth fuel vehicle in
The specific data and calculation process of Equation (2).
the t th year,NBkt represents the number of BEVs in the k th fuel vehicle
(2) Estimation of the CO2 emissions of BEVs in the WTW phase
in thet th year,NPt represents the number of PBECs in the t th year,θkt
Data Value represents the growth rate of vehicle ownership of the k th fuel vehicle in
The number of FVs See SM (Table S7) the t th year,ωkt represents the GDP growth rate of thek th fuel vehicle in
The carbon emission factor of fuel See Table 11 the t th year,Nkt represents the number of FVs in the k th fuel vehicle in
Density of fuel See Table 11
the t th year,Nt represents the number of the charging pile in the t th
Fuel transfer efficiency See Table 11
year,τ represents the conversion proportion of PBECs.

2) The calculation of the provincial grid carbon emission factors.

Table 3
The specific data and calculation process of Equation (3).
Data Value
The number of BEVs See
Power consumption per 100 km See
Provincial grid carbon emission factors See
Transmission and distribution loss factor See
Charging efficiency See
Note: The number of BEVs and FVs are the same in the calculation of CO2
emissions.
phase, αbev,i represents power consumption per 100 km of ith category
vehicle,fl is the provincial grid carbon emission factors of lth prov­
ince,Tpower represents the BEVs charging efficiency, Tloss represents the
transmission and distribution loss factor.
The CO2 emission reduction of BEVs can be expressed by ΔRi .
Equation (4) describes the CO2 emission reduction of BEVs.
( )
ΔRi = CWTT,fv + CTTW,fv − CWTW,bev (4)
(3) Explanation of other variables
We gave a detailed explanation on the calculation of the number of
three categories of BEVs and the provincial grid carbon emission factors.
Equations (5) and (6) describe the conversion of the number of BEBs and
BETs. Equation (7) represents the conversion of the number of PBECs.
Equation (8) represents the provincial grid carbon emission factors.
1) The calculation of conversion of the number of three categories of
BEVs.
The number of fuel buses and fuel taxis is predicted through the
elastic coefficient method in 2020, and they are converted into the
number of BEBs and BETs according to the newly increased proportion
in the BSP. The number of PBECs is estimated according to the propor­
tion of BEVs and charging piles, as shown in Table 4.
Conversion of the number of BEBs and BETs:
θkt
nkt =
ωkt
Coal-fired power plants generate more than 60% of electricity in
China at present, while the share of wind power and photovoltaic power
SM (Table S7) generation is increasing. The structure of power generation is different
SM (Table S3) provincially, and the CO2 emissions generated are also different by each
Fig. 4 kilowatt-hour (kWh) of electricity. Therefore, the provincial grid carbon
Table 11
emission factors are highly related to grid dispatching and grid power
Table 11
generation structure. Due to the power grid implements unified dispatch
and hierarchical management, dispatch operations are implemented
according to the scope of dispatch jurisdiction, such as Beijing-Tianjin-
Hebei. The Chinese government formulated the RPS to ensure the ac­
commodation of wind power and photovoltaic power. Here provincial
grid carbon emission factors are estimated based on the RPS. The pro­
vincial grid carbon emission factor reflects China’s CO2 emissions per
unit of electricity consumption. The specific data and calculation process
are shown in Table 5. The equation of the provincial grid carbon emis­
sion factors is established as follows.
El,total × (1 − αl ) × S × β × γ m
fl = × (8)
El,total n
where fl is the provincial grid carbon emission factors of l th province,
El,total is the total social electricity consumption of l th province, αl is the
RPS of l th province,S represents standard coal consumption of power
supply, carbon content is denoted as β, γ is the CO2 oxidation rate, m is
CO2 molecular weight, i.e., 44, and n is the C molecular weight, i.e., 12.
2.2.2. Estimation of the CO2 emission reductions from 2025 to 2035
The CO2 emissions of BEVs and FVs are calculated in the future
scenario based on Equations (1- 8). The specific steps are as follows.
Firstly, we predict the number of FVs in 2025–2035 based on the
elastic coefficient method. Secondly, we assume that the number of
BEVs in 2025–2035 will increase at a rate of 5%–10% of the number of
FVs in that year, the number of BEVs is further derived. Thirdly, the
2021 provincial grid carbon emission factors are used in the calculation
of CO2 emissions in future scenarios, and the average mileage and en­
ergy consumption per 100 km is the same as the 2020 data. Finally, the
CO2 emissions of BEVs and FVs in future scenarios are calculated ac­
cording to the above Equations. The specific data and calculation pro­
(5)
cess are shown in Table 6.

NBkt = Nkt × nkt (6)

2.3. Data sources
Conversion of the number of PBECs:
NPt = Nt × τ (7) 2.3.1. Policy estimation basis
The Blue Sky Protection Campaign (BSP) is a policy issued by the
Chinese government. The BSP aims to increase the number of BEVs. The
Table 4
Estimation basis of total promotion of BEVs. Table 5
The specific data and calculation process of Equation (8).
Vehicle Policy estimate basis
categories Data Value

BEBs The BSP RPS See Fig. 3

PBECs The development guidelines for EVs charging infrastructure in 2015- Total social electricity consumption See Table 10
2020 Standard coal consumption of power supply See Table 11
BETs According to the number of taxis currently promoted in China’s CO2 oxidation rate See Table 11
provinces and the BSP Carbon content See Table 11

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Table 6 Table 8
The specific CO2 emissions calculation process of FVs and BEVs in the future The conversion ratio of BETs.
scenario. Provinces 2019 2020 Provinces 2019 2020
Data Value Calculation method
Beijing 10% 20% Shaanxi 25% 35%
The number of BEVs and FVs See SM (Table S4) Equations (1)–(8) Tianjin 20% 25% Gansu 40% 50%
RPS See SM (Table S5) Hebei 3% 4% Qinghai 25% 30%
Provincial grid carbon emission See SM (Table S6) Shandong 15% 20% Ningxia 15% 20%
factors in 2021 Shanxi 70% 80% Xinjiang 1% 5%
Henan 85% 95% Tibet 10% 15%
Hunan 10% 15% Liaoning 90% 100%
Hubei 30% 35% Jilin 25% 30%
Jiangxi 40% 50% Heilongjiang 25% 30%
policy pointed out the newly increased proportion of BETs, BEBs from
Sichuan 45% 50% Inner Mongolia 25% 30%
2018 to 2020. The BSP did not give the increased proportion of BETs for Chongqing 0% 5% Yunnan 40% 50%
all 30 provinces, and there was a lack of proportion in some provinces. Shanghai 80% 90% Guangdong 30% 40%
Therefore, the increased proportions of taxis are estimated based on the Zhejiang 25% 30% Guangxi 30% 40%
Anhui 80% 80% Hainan 30% 35%
current number of BETs in various provinces. The newly increased
Jiangsu 15% 20% Guizhou 20% 20%
proportions of BETs and BEBs are shown in Tables 7 and 8. Fujian 70% 90%
The development guidelines for EV charging infrastructure in 2015-2020
is an industrial policy issued by the Chinese government to guide the Data source: Ministry of Finance of the People’s Republic of China.
construction of EV charging infrastructure, and promote the healthy and
rapid development of the EV industry. It mentioned the ratio of EVs to
Table 9
charging piles. The newly increased proportion of PBECs is calculated The conversion ratio of PBECs.
based on the proportion of EVs to charging piles, as shown in Table 9.
Demonstration area Accelerate the Not included in the active
1:8 development of areas 1:7 promotion area 1:12
2.3.2. Power generation structure and RPS
Shanxi Beijing Qinghai
The CO2 emissions produced by BEVs are affected by the power
Henan Tianjin Ningxia
generation and electricity consumption during the charging phase. It is Hunan Hebei Xinjiang
necessary to explain provincial power generation and electricity con­ Hubei Shandong Tibet
sumption in China. The provincial power generation structure has al­ Jiangxi Liaoning Guangxi
ways been dominated by coal consumption. The burning of coal has led Sichuan Shanghai
Chongqing Zhejiang
to an increase in the emissions of environmental pollutants, such as
Shaanxi Anhui
nitrogen oxides, and dust. To reduce the proportion of coal consump­ Gansu Jiangsu
tion, the energy consumption is gradually shifting to wind energy, solar Jilin Fujian
energy, geothermal energy, ocean energy, biomass, and other energy Heilongjiang Guangdong
Inner Mongolia Hainan
sources. Electricity consumption refers to the electric energy consumed
Yunnan
by BEVs during the charging phase. The power generation structure and Guizhou
electricity consumption in the whole society are shown in Fig. 2,
Table 10. Data source: the development guidelines for EVs charging infrastructure in
2015–2020.
Affected by various factors such as insufficient peak shaving capacity
of the system and imperfect market mechanisms, there are problems in
the transmission and consumption of hydropower, wind power, and 2.3.3. Fuel data
photovoltaic power generation in China. The Chinese government set The data are obtained from several sources, including enterprise
the RPS in various provincial administrative regions and established a websites, published papers, and government policies. The fuel data
renewable energy guarantee mechanism to ensure the consumption of needed in the work is shown in Table 11.
renewable energy power. RPS refers to the proportion of renewable
energy consumption in each province-level region, including the total 3. Results and analysis
RPS and the non-hydro RPS.
The results are analyzed based on the calculation in the Methodology
and Data sources. In part one, we calculate the number of BEVs for
Table 7 private cars, taxis, buses according to Equations (5)–(7), as shown in
The conversion ratio of BEBs in BSP.
Fig. 5.
Provinces 2019 2020 Provinces 2019 2020 In part two, the provincial grid carbon emission factor is calculated
Beijing 80% 100% Shaanxi 30% 100% according to Equation (8), as shown in Fig. 4. The CO2 emissions of three
Tianjin 80% 100% Gansu 30% 35% categories of FVs and BEVs are calculated based on Equations (1)–(3), as
Hebei 80% 80% Qinghai 30% 30% shown in Supplementary Material, Table S1.
Shandong 80% 80% Ningxia 30% 30%
Shanxi 80% 80% Xinjiang 30% 100%
The following section will provide further analysis of the impact of
Henan 65% 80% Tibet 30% 35% the RPS on provincial grid carbon emission factors, emission reduction
Hunan 65% 65% Liaoning 30% 100% trends, regional and provincial emission reduction, sensitivity analysis,
Hubei 65% 65% Jilin 30% 40% and policy suggestions from six perspectives.
Jiangxi 65% 75% Heilongjiang 30% 35%
Sichuan 30% 35% Inner Mongolia 30% 35%
Chongqing 30% 35% Yunnan 30% 35%
Shanghai 80% 90% Guangdong 80% 70%
3.1. The impact of the RPS on provincial grid carbon emission factors
Zhejiang 80% 90% Guangxi 30% 35%
Anhui 65% 80% Hainan 80% 80% The RPS has an essential impact on CO2 emissions. We analyze the
Jiangsu 80% 80% Guizhou 30% 35% impact of RPS on provincial grid carbon emission factors in the section.
Fujian 65% 100%
The Provincial grid carbon emission factors are calculated according to
Data source: Ministry of Finance of the People’s Republic of China. Equation (8), taking into account the RPS (Fig. 3), electricity

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D. Liu et al. Atmospheric Pollution Research 12 (2021) 101115

Fig. 2. The structure of China’s power generation in 2019. Data source: China Electricity Council.

Fig. 3. RPS in China. Data source: The National Energy Administration.

consumption (Table 10), standard coal consumption for power con­

Table 10
sumption (Table 11), carbon content (Table 11), etc. The carbon emis­
Electricity consumption in the whole society in 2019 (100 million kWh).
sion factors of 30 provinces in China are shown in Fig. 4. The higher the
Provinces Electricity Provinces Electricity value of the carbon emission factors, the smaller the proportion of clean
consumption consumption
energy consumption, BEV will cause more CO2 emissions during the
Beijing 1166 Fujian 2402 charging phase. The lower the value of the carbon emission factors, the
Tianjin 878 Shanxi 1683 opposite is true. Tibet has not participated in the assessment of the RPS,
Hebei 3856 Gansu 1288
Shandong 6219 Qinghai 717
and we cannot obtain the RPS. Simultaneously, Tibet is dominated by
Shanxi 2262 Ningxia 1084 hydroelectric power generation, and the proportion of coal-fired power
Henan 3364 Xinjiang 2367 is small, which making the carbon emission factor too small. Therefore,
Hunan 1864 Liaoning 2402 we do not consider the carbon emission factor of Tibet.
Hubei 2214 Jilin 780
The different colors represent different levels of carbon emission
Jiangxi 1536 Heilongjiang 996
Sichuan 2636 Inner Mongolia 3626 factors in Fig. 4. The darker the color, the smaller the carbon emission
Chongqing 1160 Yunnan 1812 factor. Provinces such as Sichuan and Yunnan have the most minor
Shanghai 1569 Guangdong 6696 carbon emission factors, indicating that the consumption proportion of
Zhejiang 4706 Guangxi 1907 the RPS is significant relatively. There is abundant renewable energy in
Anhui 2301 Hainan 355
Jiangsu 6264 Guizhou 1541
Xinjiang, Qinghai, and other provinces, but these provinces mainly
transfer the electricity generated from renewable energy to provinces
Data source: China Business Industry Research Institute. with a high proportion of coal-fired power generation and rarely

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D. Liu et al. Atmospheric Pollution Research 12 (2021) 101115

Table 11 new energy vehicles (NEVs) and proposed the goal of 5 million NEVs by
Various fuel data. 2020 (SCC, 2012). Most provinces have begun the development and
Description Value Sources promotion of the NEVs in China, as shown in Fig. 5. The total number of
three categories of BEVs is expected to exceed 5 million by 2020. The
Standard coal consumption of 0.308 kg/ China Electricity Council, basic
power supply kWh data of electric power number of BEVs is mainly distributed in Beijing, Jiangsu, Shanghai,
Carbon content 67% China Business Industry Research Guangzhou.
Institute The emission reduction trend of BEVs from 2015 to 2020, as shown
CO2 oxidation rate 94% China Business Industry Research in Fig. 6. The emission reductions of the three categories of BEVs have
Institute
CO2 emissions from petroleum 12.19 g/MJ He et al. (2019)
increased gradually from 2015 to 2020. The total emission reduction of
refining BEVs is 9135 thousand tons in 2015, which is 32407 thousand tons less
The volumetric heating value 33.37 MJ/L He et al. (2019) than the 41542 thousand tons in 2020. The difference in the number of
of gasoline BEVs is the main reason for emission reduction in various provinces.
The volumetric heating value 33 MJ/L He et al. (2019)
Secondly, the RPS also affects the emissions of the three categories of
of diesel
Gasoline density 0.73 kg/L National standard motor gasoline BEVs.
of the People’s Republic of China The emission reduction growth trends of the three categories of BEVs
Diesel oil density 0.86 kg/L National standard motor gasoline are compared from 2016 to 2020. It is assumed that the number of
of the People’s Republic of China existing FVs converted into the number of BEVs will increase by 5%–
Gasoline carbon emission 2.9251 kg- Various energy carbon emission
factor co2/kg factors
10% year by year from 2015 to 2020, according to the newly increased
Diesel oil carbon emission 3.0959 kg- Various energy carbon emission proportion in the BSP. Emission reduction growth rate fluctuates of
factor co2/kg factors PBECs more than BEBs and BETs. The Chinese government set up pur­
Fuel transfer efficiency 0.99 Liu (2015) chase subsidies for the consumers who purchase NEVs, through two
BEVs charging efficiency 0.99 Liu (2015)
aspects: mileage, energy consumption. The sales of BEVs in various
Average transmission and 6% Liu (2015)
distribution loss factor provinces have continued to increase since the promulgation of the
subsidy policy. The penetration rate and the market capacity of PBECs
are expected to have a better growth potential in the future.
consume clean energy by themselves. The carbon emission factor is the
highest in North China. These provinces are dominated by coal-fired 3.2.2. Future scenario analysis
power generation, with a negligible consumption proportion of the RPS. The CO2 emissions of BEVs and FVs are predicted from 2025 to 2035
with 2020 as the base year. The purpose is to better analyze the envi­
3.2. Emission reduction trend ronmental impact of adopting BEV. Two scenarios are supposed to
analyze the CO2 emission respectively. The first one is to analyze the
3.2.1. Emissions reduction trend of three vehicle categories CO2 emission by promoting FVs. The second is to analyze the CO2
ICEV driven by gasoline or diesel is still the mainstream of trans­ emission by promoting BEVs under the implementation of BSP, as shown
portation. The development of the transportation industry has led to the in Fig. 7.
emission of CO2 emissions, which makes a specific impact on the envi­ The assumptions of Scenario 1 are as follows. First, we assume that
ronment. The Chinese government issued a series of policies to promote FVs are still the main driving vehicles in 2025–2035, and BEVs are not

Fig. 4. Provincial grid carbon emission factors (Unit: kgCO2/kWh).

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D. Liu et al. Atmospheric Pollution Research 12 (2021) 101115

Fig. 5. The number of BEVs in China in 2020.

Fig. 6. Emission reduction of three vehicle categories from 2015 to 2020.

promoted during this period. Secondly, the number of newly increased

FVs is predicted in 2025–2035 through the elasticity coefficient method.
Finally, the WTW approach is used to calculate the CO2 emissions of FVs,
and to assess the environmental impact of FVs without the promotion of
BEVs.
The assumptions of Scenario 2 are as follows. First, the promotion
policy of BEVs is still implemented following the BSP. Secondly, we as­
sume that the number of BEVs in 2025–2035 will increase at a rate of
5%–10% of the number of FVs that year, according to the newly
increased proportion in the BSP. Then, the 2021 provincial grid carbon
emission factors are used in the calculation of CO2 emissions in future
scenarios, and the average mileage and energy consumption per 100 km
is the same as the 2020 data. Finally, the WTW approach is used to
calculate the CO2 emissions of BEVs, and to assess the environmental
impact of the promotion of BEVs under the BSP.
Scenario 1 is that the CO2 emissions of FVs under the BSP are not
implemented. Fig. 7 shows that from 2020 to 2035, the CO2 emissions of
FVs continue to increase dramatically. The emissions of FVs reach 344
million tons by 2035, which is 3 times the CO2 emissions in 2020. The
greenhouse gas emissions will become more serious if this situation Fig. 7. Scenarios analysis.

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D. Liu et al. Atmospheric Pollution Research 12 (2021) 101115

continues to develop.
Scenario 2 is the CO2 emissions of BEVs under the implementation of
BSP. The CO2 emissions of BEVs show a slow-growth trend from 2020 to
2035. The CO2 emissions are significantly reduced compared with FVs.
The emission reduction of BEVs may be 52 million tons in 2020 and the
emission reduction will reach 181 million tons by 2035. The imple­
mentation of BSP can restrain CO2 emissions to a certain extent.

3.3. Regional emissions reduction

3.3.1. Total regional emission reduction

Regional emissions reduction differences exist in China. It is neces­
sary to compare the emission reduction in different regions. China
gradually increased the proportion of clean energy power generation
and reduced the proportion of coal-fired power generation at present.
The CO2 emissions of various regions have decreased. The emission
reduction of the six regions in China and their comparison with the total
emission reduction are shown in Table 12 and Fig. 8.
Regional CO2 emission reductions and total emissions of BEVs are
compared in Table 12. BEVs emission reductions are higher than the
total CO2 emissions in the two regions of Central China, South China,
which shows that the two regions are more conducive to the promotion
of BEV than other regions.
East China has a more significant emission reduction, with an
emission reduction of 10856 thousand tons, and an emission reduction
rate of 26%, followed by Central China, with an emission reduction of
10469 thousand tons and an emission reduction ratio is 25%. The
emission reduction is not apparent in the Northwest. North China has
the most significant CO2 emissions from the perspective of total CO2
emissions, followed by East China, which accounted for 29% and 28% of
total emissions, respectively.
East China is located on the eastern coast of China, with a developed
economy and a large population. Electricity consumption in East China
mainly comes from renewable energy sources. The average RPS reaches
18.5%, and the proportion of coal-fired power generation decreases
gradually, which has a slight impact on the emissions of BEVs. However,
North China is dominated by coal-fired power all year round, with a high
proportion of coal burning. More and more renewable energy sources,
such as wind and photovoltaic power generation, are transferred from
the Northwest, and the average RPS is only 11%. Therefore, BEVs
generate more and more CO2 emissions in North China during the
charging phase. Although the Northwest is dominated by renewable
energy power generation, the Northwest has not been included in the
demonstration and promotion area of BEVs. The CO2 emission reduction
effect in the Northwest is significantly different from other regions in
China.
3.3.2. Regional vehicle categories emissions reduction
Different categories and numbers of BEVs will also cause different
emission reduction effects in different regions. Fig. 9 illustrates the
emission reduction proportion of three categories of BEVs in total
emission reductions of China’s six regions. PBECs in East China (4234
thousand tons, 35%), BEBs in Central China (6615 thousand tons, 27%),
and BETs in Northeast China (1137 thousand tons, 25%) have the most
significant emission reduction effects.
Table 12
Comparison of CO2 emission reductions and total emissions of BEVs in 2020
(Unit: 103t).
Regions CO2 emission reduction Total CO2 emission
North China 8020 15135
Central China 10469 9086
East China 10856 14395
Northwest 1490 1626
Northeast 2792 4397
South China 7913 7581
Fig. 8. The proportion of CO2 emission reductions and total emissions of
regional BEVs.
East China is located in an economically developed area with a large
market capacity. The sales of PBECs are second only to the cities in
Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. Moreover, the charging infrastruc­
ture is relatively complete, which can solve the charging problem.
The proportion of BEBs in Central China will reach 100% in 2020,
driven by the BSP, which will help increase emissions reductions to a
certain extent. Like BEBs, the emission reduction of BETs in the North­
east depends on quantitative advantages. The number of BETs will
exceed 130,000 by 2020, according to the newly increased proportion of
BETs in the Northeast.
3.4. Provincial emissions reduction
3.4.1. Total provincial emission reduction
The emission reductions of BEVs in 30 provinces are different. The
CO2 emission reductions of BEVs are calculated, as shown in Fig. 10.
The degree of clean power has a crucial influence on the environ­
mental benefit of BEVs. The orange circles indicate the provinces with
the highest emission reductions, namely Guangdong (5694 thousand
tons), Jiangsu (4237 thousand tons), Shandong (3450 thousand tons),
Henan (3365 thousand tons), Zhejiang (2277 thousand tons). The
southern provinces have a tremendous emission reduction potential
compared with the northern provinces. The emission reduction of BEVs
is affected by the power generation structure. The emission reductions of
BEVs will be higher than those in provinces with high coal-fired power
generation. In particular, the consumption of renewable energy in
southern provinces is higher than in northern provinces. The CO2
emissions of BEVs are generated during the charging phase, so the CO2
emissions are closely related to the power generation structure.
Guangdong Province has the most significant emission reduction of
BEVs among the 30 provinces, reaching 5694 thousand tons in 2020.
Clean energy consumption was 125.03 billion kWh in the first half of
2019 and the RPS accounts for 31%, with greater capacity to accom­
modate wind energy and photovoltaics. Provinces such as Chongqing,
Jiangxi, Hunan, and Hubei are second only to economically developed
provinces in terms of emission reduction. The grid power generation
structure of these provinces is dominated by hydropower. BEVs can
absorb a certain amount of clean energy during the charging phase,

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D. Liu et al. Atmospheric Pollution Research 12 (2021) 101115

Fig. 9. The proportion of regional vehicle categories emissions reduction.

Fig. 10. The emission reduction of BEVs in 30 provinces. Note: The size of the bubble represents how close the province’s emissions reductions are to the total
emissions. The larger the bubble, the higher the emissions reductions.

which provides good conditions for the emission reduction of BEVs. In

Shaanxi, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang, Tibet, and other provinces, the
amount of electricity generated by renewable energy is higher than in
other provinces in China, but the emission reductions in these provinces
are affected by the number of BEVs, resulting in insignificant emission
reductions.

3.4.2. Provincial vehicle categories emissions reduction

The proportion stacking map of the three-vehicle categories is shown
in Fig. 11 in 30 provinces in 2020. The CO2 emission reduction ratio of
BEBs is better than PBECs and BETs. BEBs run on a fixed route every day,
open for up to 12 h a day, and travel longer than PBECs. BEBs are
relatively large, and the batteries used are generally 400–500Ah, which
is larger than the battery capacity of traditional BETs.
The proportion of BEVs in public spheres in the national ecological
civilization pilot zone and key areas for air pollution prevention will not
be less than 80% from 2021, according to the EV promotion policy is­
sued by the government. BEBs will be fully electrified in 2035. China has
focused its BEV promotion policy on the bus level. Buses should first be
clean and pollution-free because of their long-term operation and size. Fig. 11. The proportion of three vehicle categories emissions reduction in
Consumers repeatedly reconsider the demand for purchasing PBECs 30 provinces.

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D. Liu et al. Atmospheric Pollution Research 12 (2021) 101115

due to the limitation of charging time and cruising range. It can affect
the demand of consumers for car purchases after China abolishes BEV
purchase subsidies. Therefore, various charging operators or govern­
ments should increase the construction of charging infrastructure.
3.5. Sensitivity analysis of emissions reduction
As can be seen from the results above, the emission reduction of BEV
depends on many factors, such as the number of BEV, average vehicle
mileage, energy consumption, RPS. A two-factor sensitivity analysis is
adopted to determine further the factors that affect the emission
reduction of BEVs. The number of the three categories of BEVs and the
RPS is selected as uncertainty factors, and it is assumed that the two
factors vary between − 10% and 10% at the same time. The results of the
sensitivity analysis are shown in Table 13.
Table 13 shows the results of the two-factor sensitivity analysis of
PBECs, BETs, BEBs. The CO2 emission reduction of PBECs gradually
increases when the number of PBECs and RPS increases from − 10% to
10% at the same time, with an average growth rate of 10%. It can be seen
from the results of sensitivity analysis that the changes in the RPS and
the number of PBECs have little difference in the emission reductions of
PBECs.
The average growth rate of BETs reached 14% with the growth rate
of the two factors increased from − 10% to 10% at the same time. The
average growth rate of the CO2 emission reduction effect of BETs is
obvious compared with PBECs. When the number of BETs remains un­
changed, the increase of RPS increases from − 10% to 10%, and the
emission reduction of BETs increases by 17%. When the RPS is un­
changed, the number of BETs increases from − 10% to 10%, and the
emission reduction of BETs increases by 12%. It shows that RPS has a
significant impact on the emission reduction of BETs.
The average growth rate of BEBs reached 17% with the growth rate
of the two factors increased from − 10% to 10% at the same time. It can
be seen from the results of sensitivity analysis that the number of BEBs
remains unchanged, the increase of RPS increases from − 10% to 10%,
and the emission reduction of BEBs increased by 23%. The RPS has a
significant impact on the emission reduction of BEBs.
According to the sensitivity analysis results of the three-vehicle
categories, changes in RPS are most sensitive to the impact of BEBs’
emission reduction effects, followed by BETs. The main reason is BEBs
are higher than the BETs and PBECs in terms of average mileage, and
power consumption. Changes in RPS and the number of BEVs have little
impact on the emissions reduction of PBECs. The impact of changes in
the number of BEVs on emissions reduction is not as significant as the
RPS. However, better emission reduction effects also can be expected
when the number of BEVs reaches a certain scale.
Table 13
Sensitivity results of the PBECs, BETs, BEBs (Unit: 105t).
The rate of change The rate of change in the number of PBECs
the rate of change in RPS PBECs − 10% 0 10%
− 10% 91 101 110
0 105 123 127
10% 111 124 134
The rate of change in the number of BETs
BETs − 10% 0 10%
− 10% 33 37 42
0 39 44 49
10% 45 51 56
The rate of change in the number of BEBs
BEBs − 10% 0 10%
− 10% 181 198 218
0 224 249 274
10% 270 300 334
3.6. Policy suggestions for the province
The Chinese government has issued a series of policies for the
development of BEVs since 2018, such as BEV purchase subsidies,
charging infrastructure operation guidelines. The purpose is to promote
the development of BEVs and reduce environmental pollution caused by
FVs. However, these policies are broader and do not involve specific
provinces. We put forward some suggestions considering the existing
problems of BEV emission reduction in different provinces.
Both the power structure and the number of BEVs have an impact on
CO2 emission. Provinces can be divided into four different regions ac­
cording to the two key factors. Western regions are rich in clean energy,
the primary purpose should promote BEV adoption such as Qinghai,
Tibet, Xinjiang, and other provinces. The coal-fired power generation
accounts for a larger proportion in northern provinces such as Beijing,
Shanxi, Shandong. These provinces should promote the clean transition
of power generation. BEVs have a considerable market for development,
the proportion of BEVs should be increased to absorb abundant clean
energy in southern regions, such as Yunnan, Guangdong, Guangxi.
Central regions are rich in hydropower resources, such as Chongqing,
Hunan, Hubei. It is necessary to increase the proportion of hydroelectric
power generation and BEVs should be vigorously promoted.
4. Discussion
Many studies have explained the factors that affect the CO2 emissions
of EVs (Helmers et al., 2020; Pielecha et al., 2020). These studies are
focused on the emissions of vehicles with different driving forces, and
few focus on the emissions of BEVs in various provinces of China. We
found that there are regional or provincial differences in the emission
reduction of BEVs, and the emission reduction of the different categories
of BEVs is also different. This is related to the proportion of renewable
energy consumption and the number of BEVs promoted in China. The
result helps to guide the formulation of BEV promotion policies.
The emission reduction effects of BEVs are distributed in the eastern
provinces of China. The emission reduction effect of BEVs in North
China is not good. This result is affected by the RPS and the power
generation structure. We considered the electricity consumption of the
society when we calculated the CO2 emission factor through RPS. We did
not consider the electricity consumption structure of different periods.
The next step of the study may be to more closely combine the clean
energy power generation structure of different periods and analyze the
emission reductions of BEVs 24 h a day. We further prove that different
categories of vehicles, which are also BEVs, have differences in emission
reduction. The emission reduction effect of BEBs is better than PBECs
and BETs, depending on the power consumption per 100 km and annual
average mileage of different categories to some extent. However, the
mileage of the three categories of BEVs is challenging to obtain. The
calculation is based on the daily average driving distance multiplied by
365 days.
5. Conclusions
In the context of energy shortage and severe environmental pollu­
tion, this study evaluated the emission reduction effect of China’s BEV
promotion efforts during the WTW phase. It revealed the differences in
emission reductions of different categories of BEVs at the provincial
level. Conclusions can be drawn as follows. The number of BEVs will
reach 6.41 million by 2020 under the implementation of the BSP, which
can reduce emissions by 4.15 million tons. East China generates rela­
tively small CO2 emission reductions per unit such as Shanghai, Jiangsu
provinces from the perspective of emission reductions. North China has
a high proportion of coal-fired power generation, and BEVs generate
relatively high CO2 emissions per unit provinces such as Beijing and
Shanxi. From the perspective of vehicle emission reduction, the emission
reduction of BEBs is better than PBECs and BETs. Sensitivity analysis

11
D. Liu et al.
shows that the change in RPS has the most significant effect on the
emission reduction of the three-vehicle categories. The emission
reduction of BEBs is more affected by changes in RPS compared with
BETs and PBECs.
The main focus of the work is to evaluate the emission reduction
effect of China’s promotion of BEVs. The most important influencing
factors are the RPS and the number of BEVs promoted. The proportion of
coal-fired power generation is gradually declining, and the proportion of
clean energy is gradually increasing at present. The government has paid
more attention to BEVs. However, the policy may be a prerequisite for
achieving BEV emission reduction. The current BEV promotion policy is
mainly led by the government. To achieve the significant emission
reduction effect of BEV, the Chinese government needs to formulate
clear and strong policy support, adjust the power generation structure of
renewable energy in various provinces, and reduce the power genera­
tion of coal-fired units. This paper has some shortcomings in the in-
depth study of the emission reduction of BEVs. BEVs will gradually
replace FVs, the emission reduction of BEVs requires more detailed and
accurate research in the future.
Credit author statement
Da Liu: Conceptualization, Methodology. Linlin Xu: Data curation,
Writing – original draft, Visualization, Investigation. Umma Habiba
Sadia: Supervision. Hui Wang: Writing- Reviewing and Editing.
Funding
The work was funded by the National Social Science Fund
(20BGL186).
Declaration of competing interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
the work reported in this paper.
Acknowledgment
The authors would like to thank the editor and three reviewers for
their valuable comments, which benefited the author a lot, and the
authors thank the undergraduates Yuxuan Wang, Haonan Wan, Shengbo
Huang, Tong Sun, Hailong Yao, Zongyao Du, and Sai Hou of North China
Electric Power University for their help in collecting and organizing the
paper data.
Appendix A. Supplementary data
Supplementary data to this article can be found online at https://doi.
org/10.1016/j.apr.2021.101115.
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