Applied Energy 251 (2019) 113290

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Applied Energy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/apenergy

On the transferability of smart energy systems on off-grid islands using T

cluster analysis – A case study for the Philippine archipelago
⁎
Henning Meschedea, ,1, Eugene A. Esparcia Jr.b,1, Peter Holzapfelc, Paul Bertheaud,
⁎
Rosario C. Ange, Ariel C. Blancoe, Joey D. Oconb,
a
Department of Sustainable Products and Processes, University of Kassel, Kassel, Germany
b
Department of Chemical Engineering, University of the Philippines Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines
c
University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany
d
Reiner Lemoine Institut gGmH, Berlin, Germany
e
Department of Geodetic Engineering, University of the Philippines Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines

H I GH L IG H T S

• We analysed the potential smart energy systems on 502 Philippine off-grid islands.
• Key parameters describing single aspects of smart energy systems are determined.
• We classified the islands according to similarities in various relevant aspects.
• Most of the islands (86%) belong to five clusters of very small and small islands.
• Photovoltaic-battery systems is the favourable backbone of a future energy system.

A R T I C LE I N FO A B S T R A C T

Keywords: Islands are highly diverse in their climatic, physical, social, and economic characteristics. Thus, each island’s
Cluster analysis energy system needs to be designed according to its specific features. However, similarities among islands exist
Renewable energy which can enable the fast transfer of concepts and experiences with energy systems. In the Philippines, only few
Off-grid system off-grid islands are incorporating smart energy systems through hybrid electricity systems. While most off-grid
Smart energy system
islands still do not have access to electricity, the majority of off-grid Philippine islands having access to elec-
Smart islands
tricity are powered primarily by diesel-fired generators. In this work, a cluster analysis is performed for 502 off-
grid islands in the Philippine archipelago, classifying the islands according to their similarities in socio-economic
and physical characteristics, and indigenous energy resource potential. The results show that most of the islands
belong to five clusters of very small and small islands for which photovoltaic-battery systems would be the
favourable backbone of a future energy system based on renewable energies. These islands show a varying level
of feasibility for harnessing wind energy. In medium and big islands, opportunities of linking electricity systems
to water supply and thermal energy loads as well as to the transport sector, are identified and their relevance in
the clusters is discussed. The results are consistent with the validation of the individual characteristics of chosen
off-grid islands. The cluster analysis results support policy makers and private investors in deciding which smart
energy system projects are suitable for which particular islands.

1. Introduction
The design and implementation of smart and sustainable energy
systems on islands has attracted the interest of the scientific community
and policy makers in recent years, which coincides with the increasing
number of sustainable energy projects. The interdependence between
the power sector and other sectors, such as thermal, gas, and transport,
has become more relevant with the promotion of smart and sustainable
energy systems [1]. There are various smart energy system initiative
frameworks available which essentially consist of three key compo-
nents: supply side management (SSM), energy storage systems (ESS),
and demand side management (DSM). SSM focuses on renewable

⁎
Corresponding authors.
E-mail addresses: meschede@upp-kassel.de (H. Meschede), jdocon@up.edu.ph (J.D. Ocon).
1
Contributed equally as co-first authors.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.05.093
Received 20 December 2018; Received in revised form 5 May 2019; Accepted 7 May 2019
Available online 24 May 2019
0306-2619/ © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
H. Meschede, et al.
Nomenclature
CHP combined heat and power
DR demand response
DSM demand side management
ESS energy storage systems
GDP gross domestic product
HVAC heating, ventilation and air conditioning
energy systems (RES), flexible power plants and combined heat and
power (CHP) in order to maximise local energy resource utilisation and
minimise carbon emissions. For example, Sigrist et al. considered
changing the coal- and oil-fired power plants to gas-fired power plants
[2]. Meschede and Wiegand discussed CHP as an appropriate solution
for a touristic island [3]. ESS focuses on technologies capable of in-
tegrating variable RES to islands using different technologies capable of
storing excess energy in oversupply periods and releasing stored energy
during times of energy shortage, such as pumped hydro storage (PHS),
grid-scale battery systems, vehicle-to-grid (V2G) systems, power-to-gas
(PtG) systems, and hydrogen storage (H2). The most analysed ESS ap-
proaches on an island scale are stationary battery storage, H2 as it is
reported by two reviews on hybrid renewable energy systems [4], and
insular power systems [5]. Furthermore, V2G is subject of many recent
publications. Child et al. analysed V2G concepts for 100% renewable
energy systems on the Åland islands in the Baltic Sea [6]. Battery
electric vehicles are also object of an analysis of the energy system of
the small Italian island of Favignana [7]. For the Canary island of La
Gomera, Meschede et al. pointed out the advantages of battery electric
vehicles and smart charging strategies from a macro-economic per-
spective [8]. DSM focuses on better management of energy consump-
tion in various sectors to reduce energy demand, such as households,
tourism and the water supply sector. For instance, Pina et al. [9] focus
on demand response in residential washing, dryer and dish washing
processes for the case of the Portuguese island of Flores. Beccali et al.
[10] analyse DSM in a touristic facility on the Italian island of Lam-
pedusa. Among others, also demand shifting via dispatch of a heat
pump as well as energy efficiency and retrofitting measures are ana-
lysed. Meschede and Wiegand [3] study the potential for demand
shifting in touristic facilities for the Canary island of La Gomera and
pointed out the potential of compression chilling machines if sufficient
storage capacity is installed. DSM in the water sector of islands is
pointed out in Meschede [11]. Here, on the one hand wells and desa-
lination plants operate flexibly in terms of increasing the share of RES.
On the other hand, micro PHS within the existing water distribution
system are implemented to increase the storage capacity. The latter
option is also discussed for the Greek island of Donoussa in Manolakos
et al. [12]. The advantage of micro PHS using pumps operation in both
directions (so-called pumps-as-turbines) is also visualised in Morabito
and Hendrick [13]. Regarding these possible DSM actions, knowledge
of the energy demand of promising business sectors is indispensable,
especially for designing smart energy systems.
Most of the worlds islands are located in the tropical and sub-tro-
pical regions in the Pacific Ocean, with varying climatic, physical, and
socio-economic characteristics affecting the energy system design [14].
Blechinger et al. conducted a systematic techno-economic assessment of
solar, wind, and battery potentials for 1785 islands around the world.
The results highly suggest that integrating batteries into the energy
systems simultaneously increases the renewable energy share and de-
creases the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) [15]. Upon analysis they
also discussed that the wind-battery hybrid system is not a favourable
combination due to a high variability of wind power density coupled
with the possibility of longer days without power generation, and
limited wind potential of certain locations [16]. Although wind power
coupled with long-term energy storage such as PHS, H2 storage, and/or
2
Applied Energy 251 (2019) 113290
H2 hydrogen
LCOE levelised cost of electricity
PtG power-to-gas
PV photovoltaics
RES renewable energy systems
SHS solar home system
SSM supply side management
V2G vehicle-to-grid
PtG storage can be more economically viable at scale, this is not con-
sidered in their analysis since there is no substantial infrastructure on
most small islands to implement these types of ESS.
The energy system configuration is also highly dependent on other
factors, which are also diverse on the islands around the world. Some
could have similar characteristics, and, therefore, a systematic classi-
fication may help ease the transferability of concepts and experiences.
Meschede et al. found 10 main clusters within a set of 1087 global is-
lands by clustering them according to their common characteristics
[14]. Sigrist et al. identified 5 prototype islands based on their annual
energy demand, installed capacity, highest transmission and distribu-
tion voltage level, average generation cost, and population by con-
ducting cluster analysis for 60 benchmarked European and non-Eur-
opean islands [2]. Cross et al. benchmarked 28 European overseas
island territories by looking into their problems and potential solutions,
focusing on renewable energy development, interconnection, and en-
ergy storage [17]. Gioutsos et al. analysed the cost-effective design of
electricity systems on 6 global islands [18]. They chose the islands
based on several criteria instead using prototypes for similar island
belonging to defined cluster. Michalena and Hills analyse barriers and
paths of RES for island states in the South Pacific [19]. Country-level
classification of islands provides a more detailed analysis that might be
overlooked in the global and transregional analyses. For instance,
Kaldellis et al. grouped the Aegean islands in Greece (except Crete Is-
land) into 4 clusters according to their annual electricity demand and
peak load, with a techno-economic analysis conducted for the appro-
priate RES and ESS combination [20].
According to the Philippine National Mapping and Resource
Information Authority (NAMRIA), the Philippine archipelago consists
of 7641 islands. Most of the off-grid islands (i.e. islands that are not
connected to the Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao grids) are currently
powered by diesel generators with most of the islands having limited
operating hours. These diesel generators are owned and/or operated by
the government-owned National Power Corporation – Small Power
Utilities Group (NPC-SPUG), mandated by the Republic Act No. 9136 or
the Electric Power Industry Reform Act (EPIRA) of 2001 to operate in
commercially unviable areas for power generation and power delivery
through missionary electrification scheme. Most of the islands that are
not operated by NPC-SPUG, Qualified Third Party (QTP) power com-
panies, or electric cooperatives (EC), have most probably no access to
electricity. A Universal Charge – Missionary Electrification (UC-ME) is
levied to electricity consumers in the mainland grid to subsidise the
electricity costs of inhabitants living in off-grid areas because of high
cost of generation on off-grid islands compared generation costs on is-
lands connected to one of the three main grids. Projections show higher
subsidy requirements for the succeeding years due to fluctuating diesel
prices in the world market coupled with population growth [21].
Therefore, there is a need to provide reliable energy access and at the
same time to decarbonise the energy system for these islands by im-
plementing smart energy systems based on RES. Ocon and Bertheau
conducted a techno-economic analysis of all NPC-SPUG areas with
optimal results, generally showing approximately a 20% LCOE reduc-
tion and a RE share of up to 40% using PV-battery-diesel hybrid energy
systems [22]. Bertheau and Blechinger provided a more refined and
comprehensive analysis of putting up solar PV-based hybrid energy
 H. Meschede, et al.

Table 1
Influencing parameters for Smart Energy System Initiative.
Energy components Sub-components GDP Total GDP per Population GDP Population Installed # of Elevation Wind Solar Biomass Climate Available area Fresh water
electricity electricity per density capacity hotels potential potential potential availability
demand demand capita

Demand side Energy X X X

management efficiency
(DSM) Residential + + +
sector
Commercial/ + + + + X
business sector
Industrial sector + + + +
Water supply + + X
sector
Heating demand X + + X

3
Cooling demand X X X + + X

Supply side Renewable + + X X X X X

management energy
(SSM) Flexible CHP + + X +

Energy storage Pumped hydro X X X X X X X X +

systems (ESS) storage
Grid-scale X X X X X X
battery
Vehicle-to-Grid + +
(V2G)
Power-to-Gas X X X + X X X
(PtG)
Hydrogen (H2) X X X + X X X

X: key influencing parameter; +: influencing parameter.

Applied Energy 251 (2019) 113290
H. Meschede, et al.
systems in NPC-SPUG areas with a more robust sensitivity analysis
[23]. Despite these results, there are only two small off-grid islands
(Cobrador Island and Pamilacan Island) in the Philippines, which are
not NPC-SPUG areas, that are implementing microgrid hybrid energy
systems (PV-battery-diesel) so far while other larger off-grid islands
have mixed energy sources (RE and conventional) without energy sto-
rage. Even though the examples of Cobrador and Pamilacan proves the
feasibility of microgrid hybrid energy systems, still many islands have
no access to electricity or generate electric power using diesel gen-
erators only. In order to ease the transferability of proven local energy
concepts and experiences to other islands, a classification of the Phi-
lippine islands in terms of parameters which influence the energy
system is needed.
Ma et al. presents challenges faced by the Philippines in im-
plementing smart energy systems with a focus on the islands connected
with the main electricity grids [24], but so far, no comprehensive study
is available for the off-grid islands in the Philippines by classifying them
according to smart energy system design. To bridge this gap, this work
performs cluster analysis for hundreds of inhabited off-grid islands of
various sizes in the Philippines in order to enable an estimation of
potential of smart energy systems. This approach allows the fast design
of such systems, the exchange of experiences, and transfer of knowledge
to other similar islands. Pertinent socio-economic and physical data as
well as potential energy yield data was collected and used in the ana-
lysis. A first determination of key parameters describing single aspects
of smart energy systems is given. Furthermore, a novel approach to
group islands with homogenous and heterogenous characteristics is
described. The structure of this study is as follows: Detailed information
of all data and their sources are given in Section 2 followed by the
description of the method. In Section 3, the case study of the Philippine
archipelago is shortly described. The results of the cluster analysis are
presented in Section 4, while Section 5 offers a detailed discussion on
these. Moreover, this section includes the validation though comparison
of results with selected case studies. Finally, the conclusions are stated
in Section 6.
2. Material and method
This section describing the applied methods of the characterisation
of smart energy systems on islands is divided into two parts. While the
Fig. 1. General method of the characterisation.
4
Applied Energy 251 (2019) 113290
first part describes the requirements of data to characterise each island,
the second part explains the method of characterising the islands.
2.1. Applicability of parameters to smart energy systems initiatives on
islands
With regard to previous studies and the definition of smart energy
systems given earlier, parameters determining smart energy system
initiatives are defined and – if available – collected or calculated for
each island. The overview of the influencing parameters in Table 1
shows that two different sets of influencing parameters exist: (1) socio-
economic data, such as GDP, electricity demand, main business sectors,
and degree of urbanisation, is needed for DSM-measures; (2) physical
parameters such as RES potential, elevation, and available area, are the
key parameters for SSM. Parameters affecting DSM and SSM also in-
fluence the choice and optimal size of ESS technology. The table in-
cludes also climatic parameters (e.g. ambient temperature and hu-
midity) as well as data describing the fresh water availability. The latter
is especially important in the context of islands and the estimation of
the potential of linking energy and water sectors. Nevertheless, there is
currently no quantitative data available that describes this parameter
satisfyingly for the small non-connected islands of the Philippines.
Furthermore, since the islands of the Philippines show similar climatic
conditions, this study does not involve climatic parameters in the fol-
lowing process.
2.1.1. Socio-economic parameters
The population is obtained using High Resolution Settlement Layer
(HRSL) datasets [36]. HRSL datasets are primarily used because they
estimate the inhabitants of each sample island, which the census cannot
resolve. On eight sample off-grid islands (i.e. Alingkakajaw Island, Boan
Island, Great Bakkungaan Island, Lihiman Island, Mantigue Island,
Patunga Island, Taganak Island, and Ubay Island), the population is
estimated using the 2010 census and direct observation of settlement
agglomeration. Touristic islands are determined using the number of
accredited hotels and resorts listed at the Philippine Department of
Tourism (DOT) in 2011 [25,26]. Hotels and resorts are considered since
tourist facilities might offer DSM potential. The gross domestic product
(GDP) of the islands is estimated by establishing an empirical linear
relation between regional manufacturing and service GDP to the
H. Meschede, et al.
nightlight data from NOAA Global Radiance Calibrated Night-time
Lights and agriculture GDP to population [27–30].
2.1.2. Physical parameters
The island area and its distance to mainland are obtained using the
OpenStreetMap (OSM) data base [31], while the elevation was obtained
using 30-meter Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) data [32].
These parameters are processed using Quantum GIS (QGIS). The
available area for RES is taken from [14]. The following exclusion
criteria are used: elevation greater than 2000 m; slope greater than
25%; inland water; and forest cover greater than 25%. The forest cover
data were obtained from Global 1 km Consensus Land Cover database
[33].
2.1.3. Energy parameters
The renewable energy potentials (solar, wind, and biomass) of the
islands are considered using Phil-LIDAR 2 datasets [34]. The solar po-
tential (in Wh/(day*m2)) uses high resolution global horizontal irra-
diance, while the wind potential (in W/m2swept) uses the wind power
density at 80 m. For theoretical biomass potential (in metric tons/year),
this work assumes that only agricultural waste is used which is evenly
distributed per municipality or city.
The installed power plant capacities of the sample islands are ac-
counted with the assumption that all power plants within the same is-
land are aggregated, regardless if they are operating in separate grids.
These include power plants owned by the NPC-SPUG, new power pro-
ducers (NPPs), Philippine Rural Electrification Service (PRES), and
electric cooperative (EC) [35,36]. Some islands have either un-
accounted installed capacity or no electricity access but since there is
Fig. 2. Estimated population (left) and estimated population density (right) of 502 sample off-grid Philippine islands.
5
Applied Energy 251 (2019) 113290
no available public data to verify the conditions for these islands, this
work assumes that these islands have zero installed capacity. These
islands are potential greenfields for implementing smart energy sys-
tems.
2.2. Method of characterisation
The general method is shown in Fig. 1. The classifications are car-
ried out to characterise the off-grid Philippine islands according to their
smart energy system potential: (1) socio-economic and physical; and (2)
wind and solar potential.
2.2.1. Socio-economic and physical characterisation
Findings in Meschede et al. [14] emphasize that only weak struc-
tures can be identified, especially for partitioning clustering of socio-
economic data. Previous studies (e.g. Sigrist et al. [2] and Kaldellis
et al. [20]) classified islands according to their annual electricity de-
mand and peak load. For the smallest islands with few inhabitants, both
studies showed that smart energy systems which are mainly based on
RES and stationary battery are suitable, while DSM has a higher impact
on bigger islands. For the observed Philippine islands, data of annual
demand or peak load is not widely available but a strong correlation
between annual demand and population can be observed and confirmed
by previous studies [2,4]. Therefore, single characteristic classification
considering the islands’ population is done first. Both population
numbers and population density are shown in Fig. 2. Besides describing
the annual demands, high population numbers might indicate higher
urbanisation and, therefore, shows the general possibility for smart
district heating and cooling on the one hand and DSM within the trade
H. Meschede, et al. Applied Energy 251 (2019) 113290

and commercial sector on the other hand. In this work, the sample off- The number of hotels and resorts in the island was not included in
grid islands in the Philippines were classified according to population the cluster analysis, but as discussed earlier, it is an important para-
with the following criterion: meter to determine touristic islands. Touristic islands typically show
different electricity consumption profiles due to tourism seasonality
[39] or climatic seasonality [37]. Furthermore, to enable demand
Very small islands (VS): less than 1000 inhabitants
shifting in the touristic sector, an island needs a significant number of
Small islands (S): 1000 to 10,000 inhabitants
Medium islands (M): 10,000 to 100,000 inhabitants standard and premium touristic facilities with a notable number of
Big islands (B): 100,000 to 1,000,000 inhabitants beds. Touristic facilities, especially on tropical islands, are interesting
Very big islands (VG): more than 1,000,000 inhabitants cases since they require heat (e.g. domestic hot water) and cool sinks
(e.g. HVAC and cold stores).
For small and medium sized islands, a second classification using
The detailed classification is divided into two parts: pre-processing
cluster methods characterises the islands more precisely taking into
of data and clustering. Pre-processing includes the exclusion of extreme
account the following uncorrelated, key parameters:
outliers, which are identified by two consecutive approaches. First,

• Remoteness: distance of the island to a mainland grid. This para- observations greater than the median plus 8 times the range between
the third and second quartile (Q3-Q2) are excluded. Second, observa-
meter quantifies viability of interconnection from the off-grid is-
tions above the median plus 7 times the mean value are defined as
lands to mainland grids.
• Elevation: maximum height above sea level of the island. This
extreme outliers for those parameters with median and third quartile
equal to zero. To ensure comparability, all parameters are standardised
parameter provides the possibility of PHS and DSM for the water
using Z-score transformation.
supply sector of the island.
• GDP per capita: total economic output of agriculture, commercial,
After pre-processing, the k-means algorithm, which is commonly
used in data mining and shows good results in previous island studies
and industrial sectors of the island per inhabitant. This parameter
(e.g. Meschede et al. [14] and Weigelt et al. [38]), is used for clustering.
provides key insight into the possibility of implementing DSM for
K-means algorithm divides the observations in k partitions, whereby k
the commercial sector, such as tourism facilities.
• Agricultural waste per capita: the amount of agricultural waste
is in integer that must be given. In order to determine the optimal k-
value, pre-clustering is carried out by varying the number of clusters 4
(rice, corn, coconut, and/or sugar) generated per inhabitant an-
to 10. The average silhouette width is chosen as the main statistical
nually. This parameter can characterise usable biomass potential for
evaluation criterion. Multiple runs are carried out to minimise the in-
power generation and/or heat source for various application.
fluence of random set starting points.

Fig. 3. Results cluster analysis small islands; clusters sorted by number of objects in descending order, right bottom: size of black circle represents mean values while
width of grey circle indicates standard deviation of this feature for each cluster.

6
H. Meschede, et al.
2.2.2. Characterisation of wind and solar potential
The cluster analysis method applied for the classification in terms of
wind potential, solar potential, and available area for RES installation is
identical to the method outlined in the previous section. The monthly
variation of wind and solar PV potential is incorporated to the input
variable for cluster analysis by dividing the mean power per square
meter by their corresponding co-variance. The climate on each island is
independent from the number of inhabitants. Hence, in opposite to the
previous approach, a first rough categorisation according to the island’s
size is not needed.
3. Case study
This work considers 502 off-grid Philippine islands, including 119
islands which are currently supplied with electricity by the NPC-SPUG
[15] and 82 islands that are planned to be equipped with diesel gen-
erators according to the Philippine Department of Energy Missionary
Electrification Development Plan (DOE-MEDP) 2016–2020 [21]. The
sub-major islands, such as Alabat Island, Camiguin Island (province),
Biliran Island, Guimaras Island, Samal Island, and Siargao Island—-
which are currently connected via submarine power cables—are in-
cluded in this study because of the potential reliability issues, power
transmission limitations, and possible infeasibility to increase line ca-
pacity. The major islands in the Philippines, such as Luzon Island,
Mindanao Island, Panay Island, Negros Island, Leyte Island, Samar Is-
land, Cebu Island and Bohol Island are considered as mainland since
they are connected to three national electric grids. This work does not
consider neighbouring countries as mainland.
Fig. 4. Results cluster analysis medium islands; clusters sorted by number of objects in descending order, right bottom: size of black circle represents mean values
while width of grey circle indicates standard deviation of this feature for each cluster.
7
Applied Energy 251 (2019) 113290
4. Results
In the following the results of the analysis are presented according
to the islands’ size.
4.1. Characterisation of very small islands
Very small islands make up of 41.8% of the 502 sample off-grid
islands. Twenty-one of these very small islands with recorded installed
capacities have an average capacity of 100 kW and a maximum capacity
of 1.3 MW.
4.2. Characterisation of small islands
The small islands make up of 44.2% of the sample off-grid islands.
Based on 52 small islands with recorded installed capacities, this type of
island has an average installed capacity of 400 kW with the maximum
capacity being 1.3 MW. The energy system design for most of the small
islands is similar to very small islands with some variation due to dis-
tinct characteristics. Therefore, a cluster analysis is conducted to
characterise these small islands in order to distinguish different attri-
butes. Fig. 3 shows four distinct clusters by clustering 202 small islands
with an average silhouette width of 0.64, indicating medium structure.
In total, 20 small islands are excluded from analysis as outliers; since
they potentially provide unique cases for installing smart energy
system, these islands are considered in further analyses (classified as
cluster SN).
Cluster S1 consists of 138 small islands with low remoteness, low
H. Meschede, et al.
GDP per capita, low maximum elevation, and low agricultural waste.
These islands are very similar to very small islands but show higher
economic viability on adapting microgrid configuration. Cluster S2
includes 26 small islands with high remoteness, moderate GDP per
capita, moderate maximum elevation, and low agricultural waste. For
this cluster a higher self-sufficiency of the energy system is required
since imported resources are more expensive. Cluster S3 summarises 25
small islands with low remoteness, moderate GDP per capita, moderate
maximum elevation, and high agricultural waste. For the islands in this
cluster the agricultural waste can be used for power and heat genera-
tion. Finally, cluster S4 consists of 13 small islands with low remote-
ness, high GDP per capita, moderate maximum elevation, and low
agricultural waste.
4.3. Characterisation of medium islands
Within the analysed data set, 57 islands are classified as medium
islands. In contrast to small islands, medium sized islands offer ten-
dentiously higher opportunities and potential for implementing DSM in
trade and commerce sectors. Best results are found for 5 clusters
whereby two islands are excluded. The average silhouette width is 0.5.
The results are shown in Fig. 4.
Cluster M1 sums up 26 islands which are close to mainland with no
specific attributes regarding their business sector. Conversely, cluster
M2 condenses 12 remote, flat islands with medium GDP per capita.
Cluster M3 includes 10 islands with low remoteness, low-moderate GDP
per capita, moderate-high maximum elevation, and almost no agri-
cultural waste. Moreover, for the 3 touristic islands in this cluster, the
Fig. 5. Results cluster analysis wind and solar potential; clusters sorted by number of objects in descending order, right bottom: size of black circle represents mean
values while width of grey circle indicates standard deviation of this feature for each cluster.
8
Applied Energy 251 (2019) 113290
seasonality of electricity consumption is more pronounced due to the
influx of non-residents in peak months.
Cluster M4 consists of 4 islands with moderate remoteness, low-
moderate GDP per capita, moderate elevation, and high agricultural
waste. Cluster M5 condenses 3 islands with low remoteness, high GDP
per capita, medium maximum elevation, and low agricultural waste. It
includes 2 touristic islands (Boracay Island and Panglao Island) with an
expected seasonality of electricity consumption.
4.4. Characterisation of big and very big islands
The analysed dataset includes 12 big islands (cluster B) and one very
big island (cluster VB). Except two, all islands are close to a mainland
grid, and therefore interconnections of both electric systems are pos-
sible.
4.5. Characterisation of wind and solar potential
Fig. 5 shows the generated 5 clusters on energy resource potential
and available area, with an average silhouette width of 0.5 indicating a
medium structure. Because of missing solar potential data, 11 out of
502 islands are excluded in the analysis.
Cluster E1 consists of 194 islands with relatively low wind and solar
potential and moderate available area. Nevertheless, even low values
for solar power potentials relative to the other Philippine islands are
high on a global scale [14]. As the available area for RES systems is high
on these islands, ground based as well as rooftop solar are appropriate
solutions. Harnessing wind energy might not be economically viable for
H. Meschede, et al. Applied Energy 251 (2019) 113290

this cluster. Cluster E2 consists of 116 islands with low available area 5.1. Very small islands
but with second-best conditions for wind power generation. Installation
of ground-based solar PV farms could be limited because of space re- For very small islands, the energy system matches the limits for this
strictions; therefore, floating solar PV and/or rooftop solar PV can be type of island defined in previous literature [20]. Their smart energy
deployed with the possibility of off-shore wind farms being economic- system design is dominated by the supply side (i.e. installation of ap-
ally viable. Rooftop solar PV and/or small wind systems could be also propriate RES and ESS). With regard to previous findings in [16] the
considered for residential and commercial sectors. Cluster E3 includes combination of solar PV and stationary batteries might be preferable.
95 islands with the highest wind potential in the Philippines combined For the configuration, Lee et al. suggests that the cost for a solar PV
with a moderate available area for the implementation of RES. Never- microgrid system is almost always less than a solar home system (SHS)
theless, wind potential is relatively low on a global scale [14]. Har- due to a significant cost reduction by having a shared storage scheme.
nessing wind energy might be more economically viable for this cluster; However, distribution cost is still a major factor in the design [39].
therefore, wind farms could be integrated into the PV-battery systems. Chaurey and Kandpal suggest for the case of India, microgrid config-
Seasonal energy storage technologies can be also integrated to hybrid uration might be more economically viable for areas with many in-
energy systems to interact with the higher variability of wind. However, habitants, dense population, and flat terrain while SHS configuration
this requires additional investments in ESS and conversion technolo- might be more economically viable for areas with less inhabitants,
gies. Cluster E4 and cluster E5 consist of 45 and 41 islands, respectively, sparsely populated, and rougher terrain [40]. Some of the very small
mostly located in the south Philippines with high solar potential and islands are densely populated with flat terrain, therefore microgrid
unviable wind potential. Cluster E4 has moderate available area which configuration might be more economically viable due to the expected
enables the use of ground-based solar PV farms. In contrast, the islands lower distribution and storage cost. However, the number of in-
in cluster E5 have low available area and therefore rooftop solar PV or habitants as well as their current and projected energy consumption
floating solar PV should be deployed. should be also factored into the design. As one example, Cobrador Is-
land (876 inhabitants, 12.95528 N, 121.06704 E) located in the central
Philippines between Marinduque Island and Romblon Island is ana-
4.6. Linking socio-economic and physical, and energy potential
lysed. Its energy system consists of 30 kWp rooftop solar PV, a 15 kW
characteristics
diesel generator, and a 180 kWh lithium-ion battery currently operated
by Romblon Electric Cooperative (ROMELCO) and funded by the Asian
Table 2 shows 54 out of 84 possible combinations for sample off-
Development Bank (ADB) and Korea Energy Agency (KEA). This island
grid islands in the Philippines by combining the socio-economic (with 2
belongs to cluster VS-E3, which suggests high possibility of economic
outlier clusters) and physical attributes and energy potential attributes
viability for wind power on the one hand and low energy demand on
(with unknown potential clusters).
the other hand. In this case, wind power is not deployed most probably
The majority of the sample islands belong to clusters VS-E1, S1-E1,
due to difficult installation and higher LCOE for wind power relative to
VS-E3, S1-E3, and VS-E1, which accounts for more than 50% of the
solar PV.
sample islands. This result implies that most of the islands belong to
As discussed earlier, RES and ESS have a higher impact than DSM
very small and small islands capable of having solar PV-battery systems
especially for this type of island. However, the addition of productive
as the backbone for their electricity system with varying levels of fea-
use activities and/or infrastructures such as small ice-making plants
sibility for the incorporation of wind power generation. These islands
and/or cold storage facilities could be essential in supporting fishing
have moderate available area for ground installation of solar PV. For
activities on some islands. Most of these islands probably have a limited
small and very small islands, wind power is an inadequate solution
supply of potable water, and therefore, seawater reverse osmosis
because of limited energy demand. Solar home systems or microgrid
(SWRO) could be the appropriate desalination technology as it can be
configurations can be considered depending on the distribution cost to
economically feasible if coupled with solar PV and/or wind [41].
connect households. Most inhabitants living in these islands have low
However, the desalination cost is expected to be high due to the lower
GDP per capita, therefore, the techno-economic analysis is expected to
economies of scale and therefore not likely to be economically viable at
be LCOE-sensitive, especially in terms of interconnection with mainland
the moment without grant support or government subsidies [42].
grids since most of these islands are close to mainland. It is worth to
note that some off-grid islands have already installed diesel generators
(i.e. brownfield for energy systems project), while most small islands
have no electricity access at all (i.e. greenfield). Table 2
There is a significant number of islands belonging to clusters VS-E2, Off-grid island cluster analysis combination in the Philippines.
S1-E2, and M1-E2 which have no available area for ground-based in-
Energy potential cluster
stallation. Thus, floating solar PV with or without offshore wind tur-
bines can be deployed. The utilisation of wind energy is more appro- Socio-economic and physical E1 E2 E3 E4 E5 EN TOTAL
priate to medium and big islands. There are 11 sample off-grid islands cluster
that belong to cluster S3-E2, which have significant amounts of biomass
Very small (VS) 97 24 43 31 6 9 210
and at the same time low available area for ground-based installation of Small 1 (S1) 67 29 32 7 3 138
RES. These islands could integrate biomass power plants to their energy Small 2 (S2) 6 6 4 4 5 1 26
systems. Small 3 (S3) 5 11 3 5 1 25
Although most islands (approx. 85% of all islands) are considered as Small 4 (S4) 3 6 2 2 13
Medium 1 (M1) 7 10 6 3 26
very small and small, the majority of inhabitants (approx. 72%) live on Medium 2 (M2) 1 2 1 8 12
medium and big islands. Most big islands belong to cluster B-E2, in- Medium 3 (M3) 1 5 1 3 10
dicating that big islands offer solar as well as wind potential. Medium 4 (M4) 2 2 4
Medium 5 (M5) 1 1 1 3
Big (B) 3 7 2 12
5. Discussion and validation Very big (VB) 1 1
TOTAL 191 104 92 45 37 11 480
Small Outlier (SN) 3 11 3 3 20
In the following section the results are discussed. In this context,
Medium Outlier (MN) 1 1 2
islands from the dataset are taken as examples to validate the clustering GRAND TOTAL 194 116 95 45 41 11 502
results.

9
H. Meschede, et al.
5.2. Small islands
Regarding the remoteness indicator, it is clear that most of the small
islands (i.e. islands belonging to clusters S1, S3, and S4) are close to the
mainland, and therefore an interconnection of the island grid with the
mainland grid can be done as already implemented on some islands.
Bertheau and Cader provided a detailed discussion on the potential
interconnection opportunity of off-grid islands via submarine power
cables in the Philippines, with cost comparison relative to renewable-
based hybrid energy systems [38]. The feasibility of interconnection is
highly dependent on the investment cost and energy demand.
Moreover, the design of smart energy systems on islands of cluster
S1 could be similar to those of very small islands. In the following, the
power system of four islands are described deeper to underline and
validate the findings:
- Diit Island (11.24446 N, 120.93433 E; 1,190 inhabitants) is located
in the western-central part of the Philippines in the Sulu Sea. Its
energy system consists of 120 units of 30 W SHS provided by the
non-government organisation to the inhabitants [43]. NPC-SPUG
plans to install 60 kW diesel generator before 2020 based on the
missionary electrification plan [36]. The island belongs to S1-E3,
which suggest solar PV-battery combination with low GDP per ca-
pita and high viability of harnessing wind energy for the small is-
land. The deployment of SHS might be appropriate due to the low
GDP per capita and small size of the island.
- Pamilacan Island (9.49275 N, 123.92377 E; 1,522 inhabitants) is
situated south of Bohol Island in the central Philippines. This island
belongs to cluster S1-E1, which suggests solar PV-battery with low
economic viability of wind power. Its energy system consists of
40 kWp rooftop solar PV, a 136 kW diesel generator, and a 200 Ah
battery storage operated by Bohol I Electric Cooperative (BOHECO
I) [22,44].
- As another example, Panganan Island (10.21938 N, 124.03823 E;
2,397 inhabitants) located in the central Philippines near Cebu
Island is taken. The power system of the island consists of a
45.36 kWp solar PV power plant with 118 units of 2 V/1800 Ah
lead-acid battery but currently not operational since 2011 due to
low efficiency and inferior quality of solar PV and batteries [45].
The island belongs to cluster S1-E1, which suggest solar PV-battery
hybrid system with low economic viability of harnessing wind
power. Hence, the classification is consistent since the population
density enables microgrid system and supposedly operates as solar
PV-battery-diesel hybrid system.
- Suluan Island (10.76285 N, 125.95661 E; 1,716 inhabitants) is si-
tuated south of Samar Island in the eastern side of the Philippines.
Its energy system consists of 47 installed SHS distributed to the in-
habitants [43]. NPC-SPUG plans to install 140 kW diesel generators
before 2020 based on the missionary electrification plan [36]. This
island belongs to cluster S1-E2, in which solar PV and battery is the
preferable smart energy system. The small population size coupled
with low GDP per capita makes the SHS a suitable energy system for
rural electrification but usually the system is undersized due to price
pressure [46].
Regarding further small islands, both clusters S3 and S4 have higher
elevation compared to other small clusters, which might enable the use
of (micro) PHS as energy storage and/or pico-hydropower for power
generation if both are techno-economically feasible. Otherwise, che-
mical ESS such as PtG or H2 can be used for seasonal energy storage in
the future. However, these technologies will incur high investment cost
currently which might not be economically viable for these islands
considering the population. Cluster S4 islands, which are characterised
by substantial trade and commerce activities, could highly benefit with
the interconnection to the main grid.
The same DSM approach for very small islands can be applied for
10
Applied Energy 251 (2019) 113290
small islands with some variations. Desalination through SWRO tech-
nology as flexible load in combination with RES might be techno-eco-
nomic feasible for islands in cluster S2 if there is no proper fresh water
supply available. This will avoid importation of potable water from
bigger islands. Desalination could also be part of the energy-water
nexus on islands in clusters S3 and S4 since it may have higher water
demand due to allocated agricultural and domestic use. It is expected to
have lower cost due to economies of scale [41]. Cluster S3 has sub-
stantial agricultural output and therefore the energy consumption of
the island is increased for agricultural processing into value-adding
products. Moreover, islands in clusters S2, S3, and S4 show moderate to
high GDP per capita. The DSM potentials in the business sectors of the
islands are limited due to the size of small islands despite the higher
ratio of trade and commerce.
5.3. Medium islands
Regarding the medium islands, two clusters with islands of low
remoteness can be found: M1 and M5. Especially for touristic islands in
M5 interconnection to the mainland grid in combination with local RES
and ESS would be advantageous for: investment deferral, upgrading the
interconnection capacity, supporting its expected seasonal electricity
consumption, and self-generation. As one example, the touristic
Boracay Island (11.97083 N, 121.92545 E; 32587 inhabitants) situated
northwest of Panay Island in central Philippines currently operated by
Aklan Electric Cooperative (AKELCO) is taken. The electricity of the
island depends on 40 MW submarine power cable to the mainland grid.
No public diesel generator is available in the island, but big touristic
facilities have their own diesel generators. In the recent years Boracay
Island has experienced power outages due to reliability issues with
electricity transmission and distribution which has had a high impact
on the islands economic activities [47,48]. A recent report deals with
the installation of a 10 MW/40 MWh lithium-ion phosphate battery-
system to replace the capacity of the diesel peaking plant that is dedi-
cated to providing half of the capacity for the island [49].
The island belongs to cluster M5-E3, suggesting viability of solar PV-
battery system with high economic viability for harnessing wind power.
For this case, installation of distributed rooftop PV on touristic facilities
coupled with the installed battery capacity within the island will po-
tentially solve the transmission and distribution issues, especially from
the submarine power cable. Although, the submarine power cable will
be expanded to 100 MW according to 2016 – 2040 Transmission
Development Plan [50]. Excess generation from solar PV can be
transmitted to the main grid. Furthermore, solar thermal is one option
to supply heat to the touristic facilities.
Generally, DSM in trade and commerce is an appropriate solution to
realise smart energy systems. In addition, touristic islands in clusters
M3 and M5 enable the utilisation of RES like photovoltaics or solar
thermal, CHP, and DSM in touristic facilities and their related water
supply, e.g. wastewater treatment. High shares of the total energy
consumption of touristic facilities belongs to air conditioning, therefore
there is a huge potential for implementing energy efficiency measures.
Larger hotels and resorts can harness solar air conditioning and sea-
water air conditioning for their cooling loads, which can potentially
reduce electricity consumption for the island. Finally, already installed
decentralised diesel generators can be converted to CHP or CCHP which
can run flexible in times of no electricity generation [3].
In opposite, the islands classified in clusters M2 and M4 show high
remoteness. Particularly for these islands, the cost for realising inter-
connection through grid extension would be high. Thus, decentralised
smart energy systems based on RES and ESS could be more appropriate.
Similar to cluster S2, a higher self-sufficiency of energy system must be
realised since resource imports would be more expensive. Furthermore,
islands of cluster M4 show biomass potential. The analysis of the power
system of Romblon Island underlines the opportunities in this field.
Romblon Island (12.54199 N, 122.28914 E; 35,499 inhabitants) is
H. Meschede, et al.
situated in the central Philippines. The island’s power system consists
primarily of a 5.2 MW diesel power plant and power barge providing
power for the whole island for 24 h operated by ROMELCO. A 900 kW
wind farm is currently under construction, financed by the Japanese
Ministry of the Environment to augment the growing electricity con-
sumption [51]. According to the missionary electrification plan the is-
land has 2 MW biomass potential [21]. Romblon belongs to cluster M4-
E2, which suggest economic viability of harnessing wind power, which
is consistent with the proposed system. For comparison, Cobrador Is-
land adopted solar PV-diesel-battery hybrid while Romblon Island will
adopt wind-diesel hybrid system, even though these islands are near to
each other. A wind farm might be more appropriate for Romblon Island
rather than a solar PV park with the same installed capacity because of
its rough terrain and considering that there is less available area on the
island. The cluster also suggest that a biomass power plant could be
integrated in the energy system of the island, which is consistent since a
MW scale biomass potential is identified.
The analysed island cases suggest that wind power is more appro-
priate to medium and big islands than to small islands. This can be
underlined by analysing Batan Island (20.41920 N, 121.96778 E;
26,619 inhabitants). The island is situated in the northern side of the
Philippines and belongs to cluster M3-E2, which suggest possibility of
economic viability of wind power. Its energy system used to have a
2.7 MW wind power plant, but is not in use since 2006 due to storm
damage with no target date for recommissioning [52]. Currently, a
3.118 MW NPC-SPUG diesel generator is used to power the whole is-
land for 24 h by Batanes Electric Cooperative (BATANELCO). The
classification is consistent since a wind farm is already installed, sup-
posedly indicating viability of harnessing wind energy in MW scale
operating as a wind-diesel hybrid system. Furthermore, the islands
belonging to cluster M3 show similar opportunities to those of cluster
S3 and S4. The high elevation might enable the use of (micro) PHS and
small-scale hydropower, if they are techno-economically feasible.
If local sources of groundwater and surface water are insufficient,
desalinating water in combination with solar PV and/or wind might be
techno-economical feasible due to economies of scale. The desalination
cost would be further lowered if these islands have access to brackish
water since the energy requirements for brackish water desalination are
lower than seawater desalination. Furthermore, delivering water to
higher areas for clusters M3, M4, M5 with substantial inhabitants will
require additional energy requirements on the one hand but offers
possibilities for DSM through flexible operated pumps in the water
supply system conversely.
5.4. Big and very big islands
Big and very big islands show wider opportunities for implementing
smart energy systems. Due to their size, the islands offer more possible
sites for RES on the one hand. On the other hand, the aggregation of
wind power to one point is limited for big islands. This can be shown by
the example of the energy system of Guimaras Island (10.57313 N,
122.61242 E; 180871 inhabitants). The island province is located in the
central Philippines between Panay Island and Negros Island. The island
belongs to cluster B-E1, which suggests that the island has a low pos-
sibility of economic viability of wind energy. Nevertheless, the energy
system of the island consists of a wind-diesel hybrid system with
3.4 MW diesel power plant and 54 MW wind farm, with plans to expand
the installed wind farm capacity to 94 MW by 2020 [53]. The excess
generation is passed to Panay Island.
All analysed big islands show significant elevation levels which
enable the implementation of (micro) PHS, hydro power and DSM in
the water supply sector. More detailed information on the specific in-
dustries is necessary for a more in-depth estimation of DSM in business
sectors of big islands. On some of the islands major malls and tourism
activities can be found [25,26]. Some have mining activities [54] while
others are dominated by agriculture, fishing, and food processing
11
Applied Energy 251 (2019) 113290
industries. Assuming that groundwater and surface water is insufficient
for these islands, desalination cost are expected to be low and SWRO
can be used as flexible load within the electricity system. Due to their
size and populations, it can be assumed that traffic on big and very big
islands is higher than on the other observed islands and therefore these
islands offer a significant V2G potential. Road traffic in the Philippines
is generally lower than in European countries but it is projected to in-
crease in the future and with that, it is also crucial to develop and
promote an electric-based land and marine mass transport system.
Therefore, linking the energy and transport sectors through V2G might
be a cornerstone of future smart energy systems, especially on big and
very big islands comparable to findings for further islands [8,55].
Mindoro Island (12.95528 N, 121.06704 E; 1348345 inhabitants)
consists of two provinces (Occidental Mindoro and Oriental Mindoro)
located in the north-central Philippines. Their energy system consists of
diesel-fired generators, bunker-fired generators, and run-of-river hy-
dropower plants with a total installed capacity of 127.345 MW [22].
The island has the highest population of all sample islands and belongs
to cluster VB-E2. Due to its low remoteness and high population, there
is a high viability for mainland grid interconnection [56]. According to
the 2016 – 2040 Transmission Development Plan, the island is planned
to be connected to the Luzon grid in 2021 (300 MW) and to Panay Is-
land with no definite year (300 MW) in order to have access to bulk
generation from Luzon Island and Panay Island and to export excess
electricity generation [50]. There are plans to install hydropower [57],
wind [58], and geothermal power plants [59] on the island. The clus-
tering is partly consistent, since its high maximum elevation provides
the possibility of hydropower generation, the viability of interconnec-
tion, and viability of wind power. The DSM can be applied in Puerto
Galera, which has significant tourism industries and is located north of
Mindoro Island, by harnessing solar air conditioning and seawater air
conditioning for their cooling loads and thus potentially reducing
electricity consumption.
6. Conclusion
The main objective of this work is to characterise the off-grid
Philippine islands by means of cluster analysis to enable fast design of
smart energy systems and simple transfer of proven energy concepts. To
this end, 502 sample off-grid islands are categorised and analysed based
on socio-economic, physical, and energy potential parameters. For
socio-economic and physical analysis, the sample islands are sorted into
five groups according to population size. Furthermore, small and
medium islands are classified in detail using cluster methods. The re-
sults underline that similarities between islands are not only found
between neighbouring islands, and thus classification from a higher
point of view is meaningful. Furthermore, the classification highlights
that many different parameters describing socio-economic, physical and
climatic characteristics determine the appropriate smart energy system
design.
Most of the sample islands are either very small or small islands
with no specific characterisation of energy demands which would en-
able demand side management potential. For these types of islands,
either simple hybrid systems and combinations of renewable energy
and energy storage systems, or grid connection to main islands for non-
remote islands with significant population size and demand are ap-
propriate energy system designs.
In general, solar is the most adequate renewable energy source on
almost all Philippine islands, even if some islands show relatively low
potentials or high restrictions in space. Wind resources are only avail-
able on some islands in varying degrees of feasibility. Combining both
the physical and socio-economic characterisation and the energy po-
tential characterisation, for the majority of sample islands solar pho-
tovoltaic-battery systems be can considered an appropriate backbone
for the energy systems with varying feasibility of wind power.
Furthermore, the study shows an inhomogeneity for the economy of
H. Meschede, et al.
medium sized as well as big and very big islands. Different business
activities can be identified through the cluster analysis. For the smart
energy systems design, the demand side management potentials in the
trade, commerce, and industrial sectors should be accounted for if it
does exist. The emphasis of implementing smart energy systems is on
the touristic islands since these islands have significant thermal energy
demand which enables the utilisation of cogeneration and demand side
management. Previous studies underlined the big potential of the en-
ergy-water-nexus for smart energy systems, in particular on islands.
Thus, further analysis on this topic including desalination as well as
wells for the non-connected islands seems to be promising but needs
more detailed data of the water situation on each island.
With these results, addressing the challenges in the current reg-
ulatory framework for implementing renewable energy systems in re-
mote islands must be prioritised and development of sustainable fi-
nancial support measures for fast deployment must be formulated by
the Philippine government. Finally, this work could be used by pol-
icymakers in the Philippines who are considering offering projects in
clusters of islands to the private sector, to allow the immediate transi-
tion of these islands towards a smarter and cleaner energy systems.
Acknowledgement
J. D. Ocon acknowledges the Federico E. Puno Professorial Chair
Award, the CHED-PCARI Program Project 2 (IIID 2015-09), and the
DOST-UP ERDT Program of the Philippines. The authors would like to
thank the Philippine Department of Science and Technology for the
funding on the Renewable Energy Mapping (REMap) project.
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