‫ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻴﺔ‪ :‬ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻋﻔﺎﺕ‪:‬‬

‫ﻳﻌﺘﱪ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺁﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑ ﰲ ﺍﳌـﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴـﺔ ﻋـﻦ ﺟـﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﳌـﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺃﺣـﺪ ﺃﻫـﻢ ﺍﺳـﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳉـﺪﻭﻝ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﺎ ﺗﺪﺭﺱ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺴﻤﻰ ﲟﻀﺎﻋﻔﺎﺕ ‪ Multipliers‬ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﳌـﺪﺧﻼﺕ – ﺍﳌﺨﺮﺟـﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﻭﺗﺸـﻤﻞ‪،‬‬
‫ﻋﺎﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﺗﺄﺛﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ‪:‬‬

‫)ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ(‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ‬ ‫ﺃ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ )ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ(‬ ‫ﺏ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ )ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ(‬ ‫ﺟـ‪.‬‬

‫ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺃ‪.‬‬

‫ﻟﻨﻔﱰﺽ ﺃﻥ ﻣﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ) ‪ ( A‬ﻫﻲ )ﺣﻴﺚ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﻠﻲ ﻣﺘﻐﲑﺍً ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻴﺎً(‬

‫‪...‬‬ ‫)‪(10‬‬
‫⎤‪⎡0.15 0.25‬‬
‫⎢=‪A‬‬ ‫⎥‬
‫⎦‪⎣0.20 0.05‬‬

‫ﻭﺃﻥ ﻣﻌﻜﻮﺱ ﻣﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ ﻟﻴﻨﻮﺗﻴﻒ ﻫﻮ‬

‫‪...‬‬ ‫)‪(11‬‬
‫⎤‪⎡1.254 0.330‬‬
‫⎢ = ‪( I − A) −1‬‬ ‫⎥‬
‫⎦‪⎣0.264 1.122‬‬

‫ﻭﻟﻨﻔﱰﺽ ﺃﻭﻻً ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺗﻐﲑﺍً ) ‪ ( Δ‬ﰲ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻲ ) ‪ ،( E‬ﻣﺘﻐﲑﺍً ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻴﺎً‪ ،‬ﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﺑــ )‪:(1‬‬

‫⎤ ‪⎡1‬‬
‫⎥⎥ ⎢⎢ = )‪ΔE (1‬‬
‫⎦⎥‪⎢⎣0‬‬

‫ﻭ�ﻔﱰﺽ ﺛﺎ�ﻴﺎً ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺗﻐﲑﺍً ﰲ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻲ ﻟﻠﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺜﺎ�ﻲ ﺑــ )‪:(1‬‬
 ‫⎤ ‪⎡0‬‬
‫⎥⎥ ⎢⎢ = )‪ΔE (2‬‬
‫⎦⎥ ‪⎢⎣1‬‬

‫ﻣﻌﻨـﻰ ﺫﻟـﻚ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨـﺎﻙ ﺗﻐــﲑﺍً ﰲ ﺍﳌـﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﳋـﺎﺭﺟﻲ )ﺍﻟﻄﻠــﺐ ﺍﻟﻨـﻬﺎﺋﻲ( ﻳﺘﻤﺜـﻞ ﺑﺰﻳــﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﻘـﺪﺍﺭﻫﺎ ﻭﺣـﺪﺓ �ﻘﺪﻳــﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ )ﻣﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﺃﻭ ﺃﻟﻒ ﺩﻳﻨﺎﺭ ﻣﺜﻼﹰ( ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﻟﻄﻠـﺐ ﺍﻟﻨـﻬﺎﺋﻲ ﻟﻠﻘﻄـﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﰲ ﺍﳊﺎﻟـﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺰﻳـﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﻘـﺪﺍﺭﻫﺎ ﻭﺣـﺪﺓ‬
‫�ﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻲ ﻟﻠﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺜﺎ�ﻲ ﰲ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎ�ﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﻟﻐﺮﺽ ﺍﺣﺘﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻒ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﳓﺘﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ )‪ ΔX (1‬ﺍﳌﺮﺍﻓﻖ ﻟﻠﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ‪:‬‬

‫‪...‬‬ ‫)‪(12‬‬
‫⎤ ‪⎡1.254 0.330⎤ ⎡1 ⎤ ⎡1.254‬‬
‫⎢ = )‪ΔX (1‬‬ ‫⎢ = ⎥ ⎢⎥‬ ‫⎥‬
‫⎦‪⎣0.264 1.122⎦ ⎣0⎦ ⎣0.264‬‬

‫ﻭﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﲤﺜﻴﻞ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﻣﻌﻜﻮﺱ ﺍﳌﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ ‪ ( I-A ) 1‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﻜﻞ ‪ rij 's‬ﻓﻴﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ‪:‬‬
‫‪-‬‬

‫⎤ ‪⎡r11‬‬
‫⎥ ⎢ = )‪ΔX (1‬‬
‫⎦ ‪⎣r21‬‬

‫ﻭﻻ ﺑﺪ ﺃﻥ �ﻼﺣﻆ ﻫﻨﺎ ﺑﺄﻥ ﺍﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﰲ ﺍ�ﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﻫـﻲ )‪ ،(1.254‬ﻭﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻄـﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺜـﺎ�ﻲ ﻫـﻲ‬
‫)‪ (0.264‬ﺣﺘــﻰ �ــﺘﻤﻜﻦ ﻣــﻦ ﻣﻮﺍﺟﻬــﺔ ﺍﻟﺰﻳــﺎﺩﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻄﻠــﺐ ﺍﻟﻨــﻬﺎﺋﻲ )ﺍﳌــﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﳋــﺎﺭﺟﻲ( ﻋﻠــﻰ ﻣﻨﺘﺠــﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﻄــﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‬
‫ﺑﻮﺣﺪﺓ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ‪ .‬ﻭﳝﺜﻞ ﺍﻻ�ﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪ ﻟﻠﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ )‪:(1.254‬‬

‫ﻭﺣﺪﺓ �ﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ )‪ (1‬ﻻﺷﺒﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺰﻳـﺎﺩﺓ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﻠـﺐ ﺍﻟﻨـﻬﺎﺋﻲ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﻣﻨﺘﺠـﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﻄـﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻐـﺔ‬ ‫ﺃ‪.‬‬
‫)‪ (1‬ﻭﺣﺪﺓ �ﻘﺪﻳﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ 0.254‬ﻭﺣﺪﺓ �ﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﻹﺷﺒﺎﻉ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺎﺑﻚ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻲ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺏ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﺑﻨــﺎﺀ ﻋﻠــﻰ ﺫﻟــﻚ ﳝﻜــﻦ ﺃﻥ �ﻌــﺮﻑ " ﻣﻀــﺎﻋﻒ ﺍﻟﻨــﺎﺗﺞ ﻟﻠﻘﻄــﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ " ‪ " O1‬ﻋﻠــﻰ ﺃ�ــﻪ ﳎﻤــﻮﻉ ﺍﻟــﺘﻐﲑ ﰲ‬
‫ﻣﺘﺠﻪ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ) )‪ ،( ΔX (1‬ﺃﻱ )‪ (1.518‬ﻣﻘﺴﻮﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻲ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ )‪:(1‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
 ‫⎤‪⎡1.254‬‬
‫= ‪ΔX‬‬ ‫⎥‪⎢0.264‬‬
‫⎣‬ ‫⎦‬
‫‪1.518‬‬

‫‪O1= 1.518/1= 1.518‬‬

‫ﻭﻛﺼﻴﺎﻏﺔ ﻋﺎﻣﺔ ﳌﻀﺎﻋﻒ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻐﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

‫‪...‬‬ ‫)‪(13‬‬
‫‪n‬‬
‫‪O1 = i `ΔX (1) = Σ ri1‬‬
‫‪i =1‬‬

‫ﻭﺑﻨﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﺸﻲﺀ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﻄﺎﻉ )‪:(2‬‬

‫⎤‪⎡1.254 0.330⎤ ⎡0‬‬ ‫⎤‪⎡0.330‬‬ ‫⎤ ‪⎡r12‬‬

‫⎢ = )‪ΔX (2‬‬ ‫⎥‬ ‫⎢ =⎥ ⎢=‬ ‫⎥‬ ‫⎥ ⎢=‬
‫⎦ ‪⎣0.264 1.122⎦ ⎣1‬‬ ‫⎦ ‪⎣1.122‬‬ ‫⎦ ‪⎣r22‬‬
‫‪1.452‬‬
‫‪O2 = 1.452 / 1 = 1.452‬‬

‫ﻭﺍﻟﺼﻴﺎﻏﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫‪...‬‬ ‫)‪(14‬‬
‫‪n‬‬
‫‪O2 = i `ΔX (2) = Σ ri 2‬‬
‫‪i =1‬‬

‫ﺃﻣﺎ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻐﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻻﺣﺘﺴﺎﺏ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻒ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﻷﻱ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﻓﺘﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﺑﺎﻟﺼﻴﺎﻏﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

‫‪...‬‬ ‫)‪(15‬‬
‫‪n‬‬
‫‪O j = Σ rij‬‬
‫‪i =1‬‬

‫ﻣﻌﻨﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻭﺧﺪﻣﺔ ﻷﻏﺮﺍﺽ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﳋـﺎﺹ‪ ،‬ﺃﻥ ﺗﻌﻠـﻢ ﺃﻋﻈـﻢ‬
‫ﻋﺎﺋــﺪ ﻗﻄــﺎﻋﻲ ﻋﻠــﻰ ﺍﻟﻨــﺎﺗﺞ ) ‪ ( ΔX‬ﻟﻠﺰﻳــﺎﺩﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻄﻠــﺐ ﺍﻟﻨــﻬﺎﺋﻲ ﻗﺒــﻞ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻀــﺦ ﻫــﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻄﻠــﺐ ﰲ ﺃﻱ ﻣــﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋــﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺑﻄﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻝ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﻨـﺎﻙ ﺍﻋﺘﺒـﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺃﺧـﺮﻯ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿـﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﻗﻴﻤـﺔ ﺍﳌﻀـﺎﻋﻒ‪ ،‬ﻋـﺎﺩﺓ ﻣـﺎ ﺗﺆﺧـﺬ ﺑﻨﻈـﺮ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻣﻨﺢ ﻃﻠﺐ ﳖﺎﺋﻲ ﻣﻌﲔ ﰲ ﻗﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﻌﻨﻴﺔ ﻣﺜﻞ ‪ :‬ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺍﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﻴﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻻ�ﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫‪2‬‬
‫‪، Closed‬‬ ‫‪Model‬‬ ‫ﻭﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﺍﻋﺘﱪ�ﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻣﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ ﺍﳌﻌـﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴـﺔ ) ‪ ( A‬ﻫـﻲ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺼـﻴﻐﺔ ﺍﳌﻐﻠﻘـﺔ‬
‫ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﻠﻲ ﻳﻌﺘﱪ ﺟﺰﺀﺍً ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ ﻭﻟﻴﺲ ﺟﺰﺀﺍً ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﻨـﻬﺎﺋﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﺴـﻮﻑ ﳓﺼـﻞ ﲠـﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟـﺔ‬
‫‪Induced‬‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻒ �ﺎﺗﺞ ﻳﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﺁﺛﺎﺭﺍً ﺇﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﻠﻲ ﺍﳌﻜﺘﺴﺐ ﻟﻘﺎﺀ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ )ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﶈﺪﺛﺔ‬
‫‪.(Effects‬‬

‫ﻭﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﻓﺈﻥ ) ‪ ( A‬ﺳﺘﺼﺒﺢ ) ‪:( A‬‬

‫⎤ ‪⎡0.15 0.25 0.05‬‬

‫⎥⎥‪A = ⎢⎢0.20 0.05 0.40‬‬ ‫‪...‬‬ ‫)‪(16‬‬
‫⎦⎥‪⎢⎣0.30 0.25 0.05‬‬

‫ﰲ ﺣﲔ ﺗﺼﺒﺢ ﻣﻌﻜﻮﺱ ﻣﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ ﻟﻴﻮ�ﺘﻴﻒ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ‪:‬‬

‫⎤ ‪⎡1.365 0.425 0.251‬‬

‫)‪(I − A‬‬ ‫‪−1‬‬
‫⎥⎥‪= ⎢⎢0.527 1.348 0.595‬‬ ‫‪...‬‬ ‫)‪(17‬‬
‫⎦⎥‪⎢⎣0.570 0.489 1.289‬‬

‫ﻭﻟﻐﺮﺽ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺃﺛﺮ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ) )‪ ( ΔE (1‬ﺑﻮﺣﺪﺓ �ﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ‪:‬‬
‫⎤ ‪⎡1‬‬
‫⎥⎥‪ΔE (1) = ⎢⎢0‬‬
‫⎦⎥‪⎢⎣0‬‬

‫‪3‬‬
 ‫ﳓﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺘﺠﻪ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ‪:‬‬

‫⎤ ‪⎡1.365‬‬
‫⎥⎥ ‪ΔX (1) = ( I − A ) ΔE (1) = ⎢⎢0.527‬‬
‫‪−1‬‬

‫⎥⎦ ‪⎣⎢0.570‬‬

‫ﻭﺍﻟﺼﻴﺎﻏﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‪:‬‬

‫‪...‬‬ ‫)‪(18‬‬
‫‪n +1‬‬
‫‪O1 = i `ΔX (1) = Σ ri1‬‬
‫‪i =1‬‬

‫ﻭﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻓﺈﻥ‪:‬‬

‫‪O1 = 2.462‬‬

‫ﻭ�ﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﺸﻲﺀ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺜﺎ�ﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫‪...‬‬ ‫)‪(19‬‬
‫‪n +1‬‬
‫‪O2 = Σ ri 2‬‬
‫‪i =1‬‬

‫ﻭﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻓﺈﻥ ‪:‬‬

‫‪O2 = 2.262‬‬

‫ﻭﺍﻟﺼﻴﺎﻏﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻫﻲ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬

‫‪...‬‬ ‫)‪(20‬‬
‫‪n +1‬‬
‫‪O j = Σ rij‬‬
‫‪i =1‬‬

‫‪4‬‬
 ‫ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻒ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺃﻭ ﺩﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺏ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﻫﻨــﺎ ﻣﻄﻠــﻮﺏ ﺃﻥ �ﺘﻌــﺮﻑ ﻋﻠــﻰ ﺗــﺄﺛﲑ ﺍﻟــﺘﻐﲑ ﰲ ﺩﺧــﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻘﻄــﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻌـﺎﺋﻠﻲ ﻋﻠــﻰ ﻣﺘﺠــﻪ ﺍﻟﻨــﺎﺗﺞ‪ .‬ﻭﺑﺎﺳــﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ‬
‫ﻣﺼــﻔﻮﻓﺔ ) ‪ ( A‬ﺍﳌﺸــﺎﺭ ﺇﻟﻴﻬــﺎ ﺃﻋــﻼﻩ ﻓﺄ�ــﻪ ﻟﺘﻘـﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟــﺘﻐﲑ ﰲ �ــﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﻟﻘﻄــﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‪ ، ΔX (1) ،‬ﻓــﻼ ﺑــﺪ ﺃﻥ �ﻘــﻮﻡ ﺑﻀــﺮﺏ‬
‫‪12‬‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑ ﰲ �ﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ) ‪ ΔX (1) = 1.254‬ﻭ ‪ ،( ΔX (2) = 0.264‬ﻭﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭ ﺇﻟﻴﻪ ﺳﺎﺑﻘﺎً ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟـﺔ‬
‫ﺻﻔﺤﺔ ‪ ،(16‬ﰲ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻌـﺎﺋﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﻘﻄـﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‪ ،0.30 ،‬ﺗﻘـﺎﻃﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﻤـﻮﺩ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﻣـﻊ ﺍﻟﺼـﻒ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟـﺚ ﺑﺎﳌﺼـﻔﻮﻓﺔ‬
‫) ‪ ،( A‬ﻭﰲ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺜﺎ�ﻲ‪ ،0.25 ،‬ﺗﻘﺎﻃﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﺜﺎ�ﻲ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﻒ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ﺑﺎﳌﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ ) ‪،( A‬‬
‫ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻒ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻟﻠﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ ، H1‬ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ‪:‬‬

‫⎤ ‪⎡r11‬‬
‫⎥ ⎢ ] ‪H 1 = [a n +1,1 a n +1, 2 ] ΔX (1) = [a n +1,1 a n +1, 2‬‬
‫⎦ ‪⎣r21‬‬
‫‪H 1 = (0.3)(1.254) + (0.25)(0.264) = 0.376 + 0.066 = 0.442‬‬

‫ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻲ ﺑﻮﺣﺪﺓ �ﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﺳﻴﻮﻟّﺪ ﺩﺧﻞ ﻋﺎﺋﻠﻲ ﺇﺿﺎﰲ ﲟﻘﺪﺍﺭ‬
‫)‪ (0.442‬ﻭﺣﺪﺓ �ﻘﺪﻳﺔ )ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ‪ 0.376‬ﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻋﺎﺋﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‪ ،‬ﻭ ‪ 0.066‬ﻛﺪﺧﻞ ﻋﺎﺋﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺜﺎ�ﻲ(‪.‬‬

‫ﻭ�ﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﺸﻲ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺜﺎ�ﻲ‪:‬‬

‫⎤ ‪⎡r12‬‬
‫⎥ ⎢ ] ‪H 2 = [a n +11,1 a n +1, 2 ] ΔX (2) = [a n +1,1 a n +1, 2‬‬
‫⎦ ‪⎣r22‬‬
‫‪H 2 = (0.3)(0.33) + (0.25)(1.122) = 0.099 + 0.281 = 0.380‬‬

‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﺎﻏﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﳌﻀﺎﻋﻒ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ) ‪ ( Hj‬ﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫‪...‬‬ ‫)‪(21‬‬
‫‪n‬‬
‫‪H j = Σ a n +1,i rij‬‬
‫‪i =1‬‬

‫‪5‬‬
‫ﻭﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﺍﳊﺎﻝ ﻣﻊ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻒ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺍﺣﺘﺴﺒﻨﺎ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻀـﺎﻋﻒ ﺑﺎﺳـﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﳌﺼـﻔﻮﻓﺔ ) ‪،( A‬‬
‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﻠﻲ ﻣﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ )ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﳌﻐﻠﻖ(‪ ،‬ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﳛﺘﺴﺐ ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻒ ﺍﻟـﺪﺧﻞ ﺑﺎﺳـﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ ) ‪( A‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺳﻨﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ) ‪.( H j‬‬

‫‪...‬‬ ‫)‪(22‬‬
‫‪n +1‬‬
‫‪H j = Σ a n +1,i rij‬‬
‫‪i =1‬‬

‫‪H 1 = (0.3)(1.365) + (0.25)(0.527) + (0.05)(0.570) = 0.570‬‬

‫‪H 2 = (0.3)(0.425) + (0.25)(1.348) + (0.05)(0.489) = 0.489‬‬

‫ﻭﻻ ﺑـــﺪ ﻣـــﻦ ﺍﳌﻼﺣﻈـــﺔ ﻫﻨـــﺎ ﺑـــﺄﻥ ﻗﻴﻤـــﺔ ﻣﻀـــﺎﻋﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻟـــﺪﺧﻞ ) ‪ ( H 1‬ﻭ ) ‪ ( H 2‬ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻐـــﺔ )‪(0.570‬‬
‫ﻭ )‪ (0.489‬ﺗﺴــﺎﻭﻱ ﻗﻴﻤــﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺼ ـﺮﻳﻦ ﺍﻷﻭﻟــﲔ ﰲ ﺁﺧــﺮ ﺻــﻒ ﻣــﻦ ﺍﳌﺼــﻔﻮﻓﺔ ‪ ، ( I − A ) −1‬ﺍﳌﺸــﺎﺭ ﺇﻟﻴﻬــﺎ ﺃﻋــﻼﻩ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻣﻌﻨــﻰ ﺫﻟــﻚ ﺃﻥ ﺃﻱ ﻋﻨﺼــﺮ ) ‪ ( rij‬ﰲ ﻫــﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺼــﻔﻮﻓﺔ ﻳﻘــﻴﺲ ﺍﻵﺛــﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷــﺮﺓ ﻭﻏــﲑ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷــﺮﺓ ﻭﺍﻵﺛــﺎﺭ ﺍﶈﺪﺛــﺔ‬
‫‪ Induced‬ﻟﻠﺘﻐﲑ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ‪ .‬ﻭﻫـﺬﺍ ﺑﺎﻟﻀـﺒﻂ ﻣـﺎ ﻳﻌـﲏ ﺑـﻪ ﺍﻟﺘـﺄﺛﲑ ﺍﻹﲨـﺎﱄ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺩﺧـﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﻄـﺎﻉ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﻠﻲ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻒ ﺩﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﲨﺎﱄ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻠﻴﻪ ‪:‬‬

‫‪H = rn +1, j‬‬ ‫‪...‬‬ ‫)‪(23‬‬

‫ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻒ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻂ ‪: I‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬

‫ﻋﻨﺪ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﳌﻀـﺎﻋﻒ ﺍﻟﻨـﺎﺗﺞ ﺗـﺒﲔ ﺑﻮﺿـﻮﺡ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺘـﺄﺛﲑ ﺍﻷﻭﱄ ‪ Initial Effect‬ﻟﻠﻄﻠـﺐ ﺍﻟﻨـﻬﺎﺋﻲ ﺍﳉﺪﻳـﺪ‪،‬‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ �ﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ) ‪ ( j‬ﻫﻮ ﺃﻥ �ﺎﺗﺞ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﳚـﺐ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺰﻳـﺪ ﺑﻮﺣـﺪﺓ �ﻘﺪﻳـﺔ ﻭﺍﺣـﺪﺓ )ﻭﻟـﻮ ﺃ�ـﻪ ﰲ ﻭﺍﻗـﻊ ﺍﳊـﺎﻝ ﻳﻔـﻮﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺣﺪ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺢ(‪ .‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻨﺎﻇﺮ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺛﲑ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﻭﱄ‪ ،‬ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﻀـﺎﻋﻒ ﺍﻟـﺪﺧﻞ ﻓﻴﺘﻤﺜـﻞ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺰﻳـﺎﺩﺓ ﰲ ﻣـﺪﻓﻮﻋﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻟﻠﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ) ‪ ،( j‬ﺃﻱ ‪. an+1,j‬‬

‫ﻭﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻔﺎُ ﺛﺎ�ﻴﺎً ﻟﻠﺪﺧﻞ )ﳕﻂ ‪ I‬ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻋﻒ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻂ ﻟـﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﻄـﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻌـﺎﺋﻠﻲ(‬
‫ﻷﻱ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ) ‪ .( j‬ﻭﻳﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻋﻒ ﺁﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻭﻏـﲑ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷـﺮﺓ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤـﺎ ﻣﻌـﱪ ﻋﻨـﻪ ﺑﺎﻟﺼـﻴﺎﻏﺔ )‪،(21‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﺃﻋﻼﻩ‪:‬‬

‫‪6‬‬
 ‫‪n‬‬
‫‪H j = Σ a n +1,i rij‬‬
‫‪i =1‬‬

‫ﻭﺫﻟــﻚ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺒﺴــﻂ‪ ،‬ﺃﻣــﺎ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻘــﺎﻡ ﻓﻴﺘﻀــﻤﻦ ﻫــﺬﺍ ﻣﻀــﺎﻋﻒ ﺍﻟــﺪﺧﻞ ﳕــﻂ ‪ I‬ﺗــﺄﺛﲑ ﺩﺧــﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻤــﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﱄ‬
‫‪I‬‬ ‫) ‪ .( a n+1, j‬ﻭﻃﺎﳌﺎ ﺃ�ﻪ ﺑﺈﻣﻜﺎ�ﻨﺎ ﺃﻥ �ﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻲ ) ‪ ( F‬ﻛﻤﻤﺜﻞ ﻟﻠﺪﺧﻞ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‪ ،‬ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻂ‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻒ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺒﲑ ﻋﻨﻪ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ‪:‬‬

‫‪...‬‬ ‫)‪(24‬‬
‫‪n‬‬ ‫‪an +1,i rij‬‬ ‫‪Hj‬‬
‫‪Fi = Σ‬‬ ‫=‬
‫‪i =1‬‬ ‫‪an +1, j‬‬ ‫‪an +1, j‬‬

‫ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻘﺎً ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺜﺎﻟﻨﺎ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﻓﺈﻥ ‪:‬‬

‫= ‪F1‬‬
‫‪(a31r11 + a32r21 ) = 0.442 / 0.3 = 1.47‬‬
‫‪a31‬‬

‫= ‪F2‬‬
‫‪(a31r12 + a32r22 ) = 0.380 / 0.25 = 1.52‬‬
‫‪a32‬‬

‫ﻭﰲ ﺍﳊﺎﻟــﺔ ﺍﻟــﱵ �ﺴــﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﻓﻴﻬــﺎ ﺍﳌﺼــﻔﻮﻓﺔ ) ‪ ،( A‬ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﻤــﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﳌﻐﻠــﻖ ﳉــﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﳌــﺪﺧﻼﺕ – ﺍﳌﺨﺮﺟــﺎﺕ‪،‬‬
‫ﻓﺴﻨﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻂ ‪ II‬ﻣﻦ ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻒ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ‪:‬‬

‫‪...‬‬ ‫)‪(25‬‬
‫‪n +1 a‬‬
‫‪n +1,i rij‬‬ ‫‪Hj‬‬
‫‪Fj = Σ‬‬ ‫=‬
‫‪i =1‬‬ ‫‪an +1, j‬‬ ‫‪an +1, j‬‬

‫ﻭﺑ ـﺎﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﻋﻠــﻰ ﻣﺜﺎﻟﻨــﺎ ﺍﻟﺴــﺎﺑﻖ ﳓﺼــﻞ ﻋﻠــﻰ ﻗــﻴﻢ ﺍﻟــﻨﻤﻂ ‪ II‬ﻣــﻦ ﻣﻀــﺎﻋﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻟــﺪﺧﻞ ﻟﻠﻘﻄــﺎﻋﲔ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺜﺎ�ﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪H1 r31 0.570‬‬

‫= ‪Fj‬‬ ‫=‬ ‫=‬ ‫‪= 1.90‬‬
‫‪a31 a31‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬
‫‪H 2 r32 0.489‬‬
‫= ‪F2‬‬ ‫=‬ ‫=‬ ‫‪= 1.96‬‬
‫‪a32 a32 0.250‬‬

‫‪7‬‬
‫ﻭﺗﻮﺿﺢ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻋﻔﺎﺕ )‪ 1.90‬ﻭ ‪ (1.96‬ﻛﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺗﻮﺳﻊ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺗﻀـﺎﻋﻒ‪ ،‬ﺗـﺄﺛﲑ ﺍﻟـﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﱄ ﻋﻨـﺪﻣﺎ ﻳـﺘﻢ‬
‫ﺃﺧﺬ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻭﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻭﺍﶈﺪﺛﺔ )ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻻ�ﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﻠﻲ(‪ ،‬ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻣﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ ﻣﻌﻜـﻮﺱ ﻟﻴﻮ�ﺘﻴـﻒ‬
‫) ‪ ( A‬ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﻠﻲ ﺿﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﻛﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ‪.‬‬

‫ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪.11‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺑﺎﻹﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﺗﻘـﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗـﺔ ﻣـﺎ ﺑـﲔ ﻗﻴﻤـﺔ �ـﺎﺗﺞ ﻗﻄـﺎﻉ ﻣﻌـﲔ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟـﺔ ﰲ ﺫﻟـﻚ ﺍﻟﻘﻄـﺎﻉ )ﻋﻴﻨﻴـﺎً ﻭﻟـﻴﺲ‬
‫�ﻘﺪﻳﺎً( ﻓﺈ�ﻪ ﳝﻜﻦ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﺪﻻً ﻣﻦ ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ‪ ،‬ﻟﻜﻞ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ‪.‬‬

‫ﻓﻠﻮ ﻛﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺍ�ﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ )‪ (1000‬ﻭﺣﺪﺓ �ﻘﺪﻳـﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻄـﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺜـﺎ�ﻲ )‪(2000‬‬
‫ﻭﺣﺪﺓ �ﻘﺪﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ) ‪ ( e1=3‬ﻋﻤﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺜﺎ�ﻲ ) ‪ ( e2= 4‬ﻋﻤﺎﻝ ‪:‬‬
‫‪x1 = 1000‬‬
‫‪x e = 2000‬‬
‫‪e1 = 3‬‬
‫‪e2 = 4‬‬

‫ﻓﻴﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ )ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﻴﺔ( ﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺜﺎ�ﻲ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬

‫‪ω n +1,i = ei / xi‬‬

‫‪ω 31 = 3 / 1000 = 0.003‬‬
‫‪ω 32 = 4 / 2000 = 0.002‬‬

‫ﻭﺗﺸﲑ ﻣﻌـﺎﻣﻼﺕ )‪ (0.003‬ﻭ )‪ (0.002‬ﺇﱃ ﻋـﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻌـﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﻟﻜـﻞ ﻭﺣـﺪﺓ �ﻘﺪﻳـﺔ ﻣـﻦ ﺍﻟﻨـﺎﺗﺞ‪ .‬ﻭﻛﺼـﻴﺎﻏﺔ‬
‫ﻋﺎﻣﺔ ﳌﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﻴﺔ ﳓﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪:‬‬

‫] ‪WR = [ω n +1,1 , ω n +1, 2 ,....ω n +1, n‬‬

‫ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ‪ ،‬ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﻮﺍﺯﻱ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ )ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ( ﻟﻜﻞ ﻗﻄـﺎﻉ ﻣـﻦ ﻗﻄﺎﻋـﺎﺕ ﺍﳉـﺪﻭﻝ ﻭﺍﻟـﱵ‬
‫ﲤﺜﻞ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻪ ﻣﺪﺧﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻭﺣﺪﺓ ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ‪:‬‬

‫‪8‬‬
 ‫] ‪H R = [an +1,1, an +1, 2 ,....an +1, n‬‬

‫ﻭﺑﺎﻓﱰﺍﺽ ﺃﻥ ‪) e3 = 1‬ﻋﻠﻤﺎً ﺑﺄﻥ ‪ e3‬ﲤﺜﻞ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﲔ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻌـﺎﺋﻠﻲ ﺑـﺎﻓﱰﺍﺽ ﻭﺟـﻮﺩ‬
‫‪.‬‬ ‫) ‪(W33 = e3 / x3 =1 / 1000 = 0.001‬‬ ‫ﻗﻄﺎﻋﲔ ﺍ�ﺘﺎﺟﻴﲔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ﳝﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﻠﻲ ﰲ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﻣﻐﻠﻖ(‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ‬

‫ﻭﺑﺎﻓﱰﺍﺽ ﺃﻥ ﻣﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﲔ ﺍ�ﺘﺎﺟﻴﲔ ﻭﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﻋﺎﺋﻠﻲ ﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫‪⎡150‬‬ ‫‪500‬‬ ‫⎤ ‪50‬‬

‫‪⎢200‬‬ ‫‪100‬‬ ‫⎥⎥‪400‬‬
‫⎢‬
‫‪⎢⎣300‬‬ ‫‪500‬‬ ‫⎦⎥ ‪50‬‬

‫ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﻣﺪﻓﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺙ )ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﻭﺍﻟﺜﺎ�ﻲ ﻗﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍ�ﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﻋﺎﺋﻠﻲ( ﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫‪x31 = 300, x32 = 500, x33 = 50‬‬

‫ﻭﺑـﺬﻟﻚ ﺗﻜــﻮﻥ ﻣــﺪﻓﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﻛــﻞ ﻋﺎﻣــﻞ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋــﺎﺕ ﺍﻟــﺜﻼﺙ ﻫــﻲ ‪ 100 :‬ﻭﺣــﺪﺓ �ﻘﺪﻳــﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ‪ 125‬ﻭﺣــﺪﺓ‬
‫�ﻘﺪﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ‪ 50‬ﻭﺣـﺪﺓ �ﻘﺪﻳـﺔ‪ ،‬ﺗﺒﺎﻋـﺎً‪ ،‬ﺑـﺎﻓﱰﺍﺽ ﺃﻥ ﻋـﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻌـﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋـﺎﺕ ﺍﻟـﺜﻼﺙ‪ ،‬ﺗﺒﺎﻋـﺎً‪ ،‬ﻫـﻮ )‪ (3‬ﻭ )‪ (4‬ﻭ‬
‫)‪.(1‬‬

‫ﻭﺍﻵﻥ ﻛﻴــﻒ ﳓﺴــﺐ ﻣﻀــﺎﻋﻔﺎﺕ ﻋﻤﺎﻟــﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻄــﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻌ ـﺎﺋﻠﻲ ﺃﻭ ﺁﺛــﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟــﺔ‪ .‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﻔــﺎﺭﻕ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﻴــﺪ ﻣــﺎ ﺑــﲔ‬
‫ﺍﺣﺘﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ‪ ،‬ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﺃﻋﻼﻩ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻣـﻦ ﺍﳌﻀـﺎﻋﻔﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟـﺔ‪ ،‬ﻫـﻮ ﺃ�ﻨـﺎ �ﺴـﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﰲ‬
‫ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﺪﺧﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﻴﺔ ) ‪ ( WR‬ﺑﺪﻻً ﻣﻦ ﻣـﺪﺧﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤـﻞ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳـﺔ ) ‪ .( HR‬ﻭﺑﻨـﺎﺀ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺫﻟـﻚ‬
‫ﻓﺈﻥ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﺣﺘﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻒ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺸﺒﻴﻬﺔ ﲟﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺭﻗﻢ )‪ ،(21‬ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ‪:‬‬

‫‪...‬‬ ‫)‪(26‬‬
‫‪n‬‬
‫‪E j = Σ ω n +1,i rij‬‬
‫‪i =1‬‬

‫‪ ω 32 = 0.002‬ﳓﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ ، ω 31 = 0.003‬ﻭ‬ ‫ﻭﺑﺎﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺮﻗﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﺣﻴﺚ‬

‫‪E1= (0.003)(1.254)+0.002)(0.264)=0.00429‬‬

‫‪9‬‬
‫‪E2= (0.003)(0.330)+(0.002)(1.122)=0.00323‬‬

‫ﻭﻗﺪ ﺗﺒﺪﻭ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻋﻔﺎﺕ ﺻﻐﲑﺓ ﺇﻻّ ﺃﻥ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻳﻌﻮﺩ ﻟﻜﻮﳖﺎ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟـﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻟـﺪﺓ ﻟﻜـﻞ ﻭﺣـﺪﺓ �ﻘﺪﻳـﺔ ﻣـﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﻲ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪ )ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻨﺸﺄ ﺑـﺪﻭﺭﻩ ﻣـﻦ ﺍﻟﺰﻳـﺎﺩﺓ ﺑﻮﺣـﺪﺓ �ﻘﺪﻳـﺔ ﻭﺍﺣـﺪﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻄﻠـﺐ ﺍﻟﻨـﻬﺎﺋﻲ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠـﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﻴــﺔ(‪ .‬ﻭﺇﺫﺍ ﻣــﺎ ﺿــﺮﺑﺖ ﻫــﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻀــﺎﻋﻔﺎﺕ ﰲ )‪ (1000‬ﻓﺴﺘﺼــﺒﺢ )‪ (4.29‬ﻭ )‪ (3.23‬ﻟﺘﻤﺜــﻞ ﻓــﺮﺹ ﺍﻟﻌﻤــﻞ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻟﺪﺓ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﲟﻘﺪﺍﺭ )‪ (1000‬ﻭﺣﺪﺓ �ﻘﺪﻳﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ‪ ( I − A )−1‬ﺑﺪﻻً ﻣﻦ ‪ ( I − A)−1‬ﻓﺴﻨﺤﺼﻞ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﺇﲨﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟـﺔ ﺃﻭ‬
‫ﺑﺎﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ‪:(22‬‬ ‫‪Hj‬‬ ‫ﺇﲨﺎﱄ ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻒ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ )ﺍﻟﺸﺒﻴﻬﺔ ﺑــ‬

‫)‪... (27‬‬
‫‪n +1‬‬
‫‪E j = Σ Wn +1,i rij‬‬
‫‪i =1‬‬

‫ﻭﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ �ﻔﺲ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ ﳓﺼﻞ ‪:‬‬

‫‪E1 = (0.003)(1.365) + (0.002)(0.527) + (0.001)(0.570) = 0.00572‬‬

‫‪E2 = (0.003)(0.425) + (0.002)(1.348) + (0.001)(0.489) = 0.00446‬‬

‫‪ .12‬ﺃﳕﺎﻁ ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻒ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ‪ I‬ﻭ ‪: II‬‬

‫ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻘﺎً ﻟﻨﻔﺲ ﺍﻵﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺒﻌﺔ ﰲ ﺃﳕﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ‪ I‬ﻭ ‪ ، II‬ﻓﻘﺪ ﻳﺮﻏﺐ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣـﺚ ﰲ ﺭﺑـﻂ ﺗـﺄﺛﲑ ﺇﲨـﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟـﺔ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻷﻭﱄ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻴﺲ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻲ )ﻭﺍ�ﺘﺎﺝ( ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳـﺎﺱ �ﻘـﺪﻱ‪ .‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺰﻳـﺎﺩﺓ ﲟﻘـﺪﺍﺭ ﻭﺣـﺪﺓ �ﻘﺪﻳـﺔ‬
‫ﺑﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ) ‪ ( j‬ﺗﻌﲏ ﻓﺮﺹ ﻋﻤﻞ ﺇﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ) ‪ ( j‬ﲟﻘﺪﺍﺭ ) ‪ .( ω n+1, j‬ﻭﻳﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﻣﻀـﺎﻋﻒ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟـﺔ ﺍﻟـﻨﻤﻂ‬
‫) ‪ ( Ej ) ( I‬ﻛﺒﺴﻂ ﻭ ) ‪ ،( ω n+1, j‬ﻭﻟﻴﺲ ﻭﺣﺪﺓ �ﻘﺪﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﻘﺎﻡ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﺮﻣﺰ ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻋﻒ ﺑــ ) ‪:( Wj‬‬

‫‪ω n +1, i rij‬‬

‫‪...‬‬ ‫)‪(28‬‬
‫‪Ej‬‬ ‫‪n‬‬
‫= ‪Wj‬‬ ‫‪= Σ‬‬
‫‪ω n +1, j‬‬ ‫‪i =1‬‬ ‫‪ω n +1, j‬‬
‫ﻭﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ‪:‬‬
‫‪W1= 0.00429/0.003 = 1.430‬‬
‫‪W2= 0.00323/0.002 = 1.615‬‬

‫‪10‬‬
‫ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﻛﻞ ﻓﺮﺻﺔ ﻋﻤﻞ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﻣﺘﻮﻟﺪﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ )‪ ،(2‬ﻣﺜﻼﹰ‪ ،‬ﻫﻨﺎﻙ )‪ (1.615‬ﻓﺮﺹ ﻋﻤﻞ ﻣﺘﻮﻟﺪﺓ‬
‫ﰲ ﻛﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‪.‬‬

‫ﺃﻣﺎ ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻒ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻂ ‪ ،( W j ) ، II‬ﻓﻴﺤﺘﺴﺐ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ‪:‬‬

‫‪n +1 ω‬‬
‫)‪... (29‬‬
‫‪Ej‬‬ ‫‪n +1,i rij‬‬
‫= ‪Wj‬‬ ‫‪= Σ‬‬
‫‪ω n +1, j‬‬ ‫‪i =1‬‬ ‫‪ω n +1, j‬‬
‫ﻭﺭﻗﻤﻴﺎً‪:‬‬
‫‪0.00572‬‬
‫= ‪W1‬‬ ‫‪= 1.907‬‬
‫‪0.003‬‬
‫‪0.00446‬‬
‫= ‪W2‬‬ ‫‪= 2.230‬‬
‫‪0.002‬‬

‫‪11‬‬
 ‫ﻣﻠﺨﺺ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻋﻔﺎﺕ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪.13‬‬

‫ﻳﻮﺿﺢ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ )‪ (2‬ﺃﺩ�ﺎﻩ ﻣﻠﺨﺺ ﺑﺎﻟﺼﻴﺎﻏﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﲟﻀﺎﻋﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﻴﻢ ﻫﺬﻩ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻋﻔﺎﺕ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻷﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﺃﻋﻼﻩ‪:‬‬

‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ )‪(2‬‬
‫ﻣﻠﺨﺺ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻋﻔﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻗﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻋﻔﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺼﻴﺎﻏﺔ ﺍﳉﱪﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻢ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻋﻒ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ‪2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ‪1‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ‪:‬‬
‫‪O j = Σ rij‬‬
‫‪n‬‬
‫‪15‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺒﺴﻂ‬
‫‪1.452‬‬ ‫‪1.518‬‬ ‫‪i =1‬‬

‫‪O j = Σ rij‬‬
‫‪n +1‬‬
‫‪20‬‬ ‫ﺍﻹﲨﺎﱄ‬
‫‪2.262‬‬ ‫‪2.462‬‬ ‫‪i =1‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ‪:‬‬
‫‪0.380‬‬ ‫‪0.442‬‬
‫‪n‬‬
‫‪H j = Σ an +1,i rij‬‬ ‫‪21‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﻠﻲ ﺍﳌﺒﺴﻂ‬
‫‪i =1‬‬
‫‪n‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻄــــــــــﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻌــــــــ ـﺎﺋﻠﻲ‬
‫‪H j = Σ a n +1,i r ij‬‬
‫ﺍﻹﲨﺎﱄ‬
‫‪0.489‬‬ ‫‪0.570‬‬ ‫‪22‬‬
‫‪i =1‬‬

‫‪1.520‬‬ ‫‪1.470‬‬ ‫‪F j = H j / an +1, j‬‬ ‫‪24‬‬ ‫ﳕﻂ ‪I‬‬

‫‪1.960‬‬ ‫‪1.900‬‬ ‫‪F j = H j / an +1, j‬‬ ‫‪25‬‬ ‫ﳕﻂ ‪II‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ‪:‬‬
‫‪0.00323‬‬ ‫‪0.00429‬‬
‫‪n‬‬
‫‪E j = Σ ω n +1,i rij‬‬ ‫‪26‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﻠﻲ ﺍﳌﺒﺴﻂ‬
‫‪i =1‬‬
‫‪n +1‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻄــــــــــﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻌــــــــ ـﺎﺋﻠﻲ‬
‫‪E j = Σ ω n +1,i r ij‬‬
‫ﺍﻹﲨﺎﱄ‬
‫‪0.00446‬‬ ‫‪0.00572‬‬ ‫‪27‬‬
‫‪i =1‬‬

‫‪1.615‬‬ ‫‪1.430‬‬ ‫‪W j = E j / ω n +1, j‬‬ ‫‪28‬‬ ‫ﳕﻂ ‪I‬‬

‫‪2.230‬‬ ‫‪1.907‬‬ ‫‪W j = E j / ω n +1, j‬‬ ‫‪29‬‬ ‫ﳕﻂ ‪II‬‬

‫‪12‬‬
 ‫ﲤﺎﺭﻳﻦ ﺗﺪﺭﻳﺒﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪.14‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‪:‬‬
‫ﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﳌﺪﺧﻼﺕ – ﺍﳌﺨﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺮﺿﻴﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﳌﺪﺧﻼﺕ ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺳﻴﻨﺘﺞ ﻋﻨﻪ‬ ‫‪.1‬‬
‫ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ �ﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺃﻛﱪ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺨﺮﺟﺎﺕ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺻﺤﻴﺢ‬
‫ﺧﻄﺄ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺤﺔ ‪ :‬ﺧﻄﺄ‬

‫ﻳﺪﻓﻊ ﻣﻨﺘﺞ ﺳﻠﻌﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻟﻠﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪﺧﻼﺗﻪ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬ ‫‪.2‬‬

‫ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻲ‪.‬‬

‫‪ +‬ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﺍﺋﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ +‬ﻣﺼﺎﺭﻳﻒ �ﻘﻞ ﻭﺷﺤﻦ‪.‬‬

‫ﺻﺤﻴﺢ‬
‫ﺧﻄﺄ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺤﺔ ‪ :‬ﺻﺤﻴﺢ‬

‫ﻳﺘﻀــﻤﻦ ﺳــﻌﺮ ﺍﳌﺸــﱰﻱ ‪ Purchaser's Price‬ﻛﺎﻓــﺔ ﺃﺷــﻜﺎﻝ ﺿـﺮﻳﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤــﺔ ﺍﳌﻀــﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﳌﺴــﺘﻘﻄﻌﺔ‬ ‫‪.3‬‬
‫‪. Deductable VAT‬‬
‫ﺻﺤﻴﺢ‬
‫ﺧﻄﺄ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺤﺔ ‪ :‬ﺧﻄﺄ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻕ ﻣﺎ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﳌﻐﻠﻖ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﳌﻔﺘﻮﺡ ﳉﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺍﳌﺪﺧﻼﺕ – ﺍﳌﺨﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﻳﻌﺎﰿ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ‬ ‫‪.4‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﻠﻲ )ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻭﻣﺎ ﻳﻘﺎﺑﻠﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻮﺭ( ﺿﻤﻦ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻲ ﻭﻟﻴﺲ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ‪.‬‬

‫‪13‬‬
‫ﺻﺤﻴﺢ‬
‫ﺧﻄﺄ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺤﺔ ‪ :‬ﺧﻄﺄ‬

‫‪14‬‬
 ‫ﲢﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺪﺧﻼﺕ – ﺍﳌﺨﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﺇﱃ ﻣﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﺭﺃﺱ ﻣﺎﻝ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪.5‬‬

‫ﺻﺤﻴﺢ‬
‫ﺧﻄﺄ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺤﺔ ‪ :‬ﺻﺤﻴﺢ‬

‫ﳝﺜﻞ ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻒ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺻﻒ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﳌﻌﲏ ﲟﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ ﻣﻌﻜﻮﺱ ﻣﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ ﻟﻴﻮ�ﺘﻴﻒ ﻣﻘﺴﻮﻣﺎً ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫‪.6‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻲ ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ‪.‬‬

‫ﺻﺤﻴﺢ‬
‫ﺧﻄﺄ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺤﺔ ‪ :‬ﺧﻄﺄ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺭﻕ ﻣﺎ ﺑﲔ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ) ‪ ،( A‬ﻭﻣﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ) ‪ ( A‬ﻋﻨــــــــــﺪ‬ ‫‪.7‬‬
‫ﺍﺣﺘﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻋﻔﺎﺕ ﻫﻮ ﺃ�ﻨـﺎ ﳓﺼـﻞ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﻵﺛـﺎﺭ ﺍﶈﺪﺛـﺔ ‪ Induced‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿـﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻵﺛـﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷـﺮﺓ‬
‫ﻭﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﳌﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎ�ﻴﺔ ) ‪. ( A‬‬

‫ﺻﺤﻴﺢ‬
‫ﺧﻄﺄ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺤﺔ ‪ :‬ﺻﺤﻴﺢ‬

‫‪ .8‬ﺍﻟﻔــﺎﺭﻕ ﻣــﺎ ﺑــﲔ ﺍﺣﺘﺴــﺎﺏ ﻣﻀــﺎﻋﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻟــﺪﺧﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻀــﺎﻋﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟــﺔ ﻫــﻮ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﻀــﺎﻋﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﻋﻴﻨﻴــﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺜﺎ�ﻴﺔ �ﻘﺪﻳﺔ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺻﺤﻴﺢ‬
‫ﺧﻄﺄ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺤﺔ ‪ :‬ﺧﻄﺄ‬

‫‪15‬‬
‫‪ .9‬ﺍﳍﺪﻑ ﺍﻹﲨــــــﺎﱄ ﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻔﺎﺕ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻫﻮ ﻟﺒﻴﺎﻥ ﻛﻴﻒ ﻳﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗــــــــــــــــﺞ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺎ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﻛﺜـﺮ ﺗـﺄﺛﺮﺍً ﲠـﺬﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ‪.‬‬

‫ﺻﺤﻴﺢ‬
‫ﺧﻄﺄ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺤﺔ‪ :‬ﺻﺤﻴﺢ‬

‫‪ .10‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻣــﺎ ﺍﻓﱰﺿــﻨﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨــﺎﻙ ﺗﻐــﲑﺍﺕ ﺳ ـﺮﻳﻌﺔ ﺟــﺪﺍً ﰲ ﺍﻟــﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴــﺔ )ﻭﺍﳌﻌــﱪ ﻋﻨــﻬﺎ ﲟﺼــﻔﻮﻓﺔ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻌــﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴــﺔ ‪ ( A‬ﰲ ﺑﻠــﺪ ﻣﻌــﲔ ﻓﻬــﻞ ﻣــﻦ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺳــﺐ ﺍﺳــﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻫــﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺼــﻔﻮﻓﺔ ﲠــﺪﻑ ﺍﺣﺘﺴــﺎﺏ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻋﻔﺎﺕ ﻟﻠﺴﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﳋﻤﺲ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﻣﺔ ﻣﺜﻼﹰ )ﺃﻡ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﻳﻘﺘﻀـﻲ ﲢـﺪﻳﺚ ﺍﳌﺼـﻔﻮﻓﺔ ﺃﻭﻻً ﻷﺧـﺬ ﺍﻟـﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﶈﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﺑﻨﻈﺮ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺣﺘﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻋﻔﺎﺕ(‪.‬‬

‫ﻻ ﺑﺪ ﻣﻦ ﲢﺪﻳﺚ ﺍﳌﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ‬
‫ﻏﲑ ﻣﻬﻢ ﲢﺪﻳﺚ ﺍﳌﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻹﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺤﺔ ‪ :‬ﻻ ﺑﺪ ﻣﻦ ﲢﺪﻳﺚ ﺍﳌﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ‬

‫‪16‬‬
 ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﺜﺎ�ﻲ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍﻋﺘﻤــﺎﺩﺍً ﻋﻠــﻰ ﺍﳌﺼــﻔﻮﻓﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌــﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴــﺔ ﺍﺣﺴــﺐ ﻣﻀــﺎﻋﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨــﺎﺗﺞ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟــﺪﺧﻞ )ﺍﻟــﻨﻤﻂ ‪،( II,I‬‬
‫ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺭﺩﺓ ﰲ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ )‪.(2‬‬

‫‪⎡0.500‬‬ ‫⎤‪0.438‬‬
‫⎢⎢ = ‪A‬‬ ‫⎥‬
‫⎥‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﳌﻔﺘﻮﺡ‬
‫‪⎢⎣0.320‬‬ ‫⎦⎥‪0.450‬‬

‫‪⎡4.074‬‬ ‫⎤‪3.241‬‬
‫)‪( I − A‬‬ ‫‪−1‬‬
‫⎢⎢ =‬ ‫⎥‬
‫⎥‬
‫‪⎢⎣2.370‬‬ ‫⎦⎥‪3.704‬‬

‫‪⎡0.500‬‬ ‫‪0.438‬‬ ‫⎤ ‪0.300‬‬

‫⎢‬ ‫⎥‬
‫⎢‬
‫‪A = ⎢0.320‬‬ ‫‪0.450‬‬ ‫⎥ ‪0.167‬‬
‫⎥‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﳌﻐﻠﻖ‬
‫⎢‬ ‫⎥‬
‫⎢‬ ‫⎥‬
‫‪⎢⎣0.100‬‬ ‫‪0.075‬‬ ‫⎦⎥ ‪0.133‬‬

‫‪⎡5.820‬‬ ‫‪5.036‬‬ ‫⎤‪2.983‬‬

‫⎢‬ ‫⎥‬
‫⎢‬ ‫⎥‬
‫‪( I − A) −1 = ⎢3.686‬‬ ‫‪5.057‬‬ ‫⎥‪2.248‬‬
‫⎢‬ ‫⎥‬
‫⎢‬ ‫⎥‬
‫‪⎢⎣0.990‬‬ ‫‪1.019‬‬ ‫⎦⎥ ‪1.693‬‬

‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ‬
‫‪ω1 = 0.006‬‬ ‫‪ω 2 = 0.004‬‬

‫‪17‬‬
 ‫ﺣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﺜﺎ�ﻲ‪:‬‬

‫ﺃﻭﻻً ‪ :‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﳌﺒﺴﻂ )ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﳌﻔﺘﻮﺡ(‪:‬‬

‫�ﻘـــﻮﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻘـ ـﺎً ﻟﻠﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟـــﺔ ‪) 15‬ﺍﳉـــﺪﻭﻝ ‪ ،(2‬ﲜﻤـــﻊ ﺃﻋﻤـــﺪﺓ ﺍﳌﺼـــﻔﻮﻓﺔ ‪ ( I − A)−1‬ﻟﻠﺤﺼـــﻮﻝ ﻋﻠـــﻰ ﻫـــﺬﻩ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻋﻔﺎﺕ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﻭﻫﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪n‬‬
‫‪O j = Σ rij‬‬
‫‪i =1‬‬

‫‪O1= 6.444‬‬
‫‪O2= 6.945‬‬

‫ﺛﺎ�ﻴﺎً‪ :‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﻻﲨﺎﱄ )ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﳌﻐﻠﻖ(‪:‬‬

‫�ﻘـــﻮﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻘـ ـﺎً ﻟﻠﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟـــﺔ ‪) 20‬ﺍﳉـــﺪﻭﻝ ‪ (2‬ﲜﻤـــﻊ ﺃﻋﻤـــﺪﺓ ﺍﳌﺼـــﻔﻮﻓﺔ ‪ ( I − A)−1‬ﻟﻠﺤﺼـــﻮﻝ ﻋﻠـــﻰ ﻫـــﺬﻩ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻋﻔﺎﺕ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫‪n +1‬‬
‫‪O j = Σ rij‬‬
‫‪i =1‬‬

‫‪O1 = 10.496‬‬ ‫‪O2 = 11.112‬‬ ‫‪O3 = 6.924‬‬

‫ﻭﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻼﺣﻆ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎ ﺛـﻼﺙ ﻗﻄﺎﻋـﺎﺕ ﺑﻌـﺪ ﺃﻥ ﺍﺿـﻔﻨﺎ ﺍﻟﻘﻄـﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻌـﺎﺋﻠﻲ )ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟـﺚ( ﻛﺠـﺰﺀ ﻣـﻦ ﻣﺼـﻔﻮﻓﺔ ﺍﳌﻌـﺎﻣﻼﺕ‬
‫ﻟﻨﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﳌﻐﻠﻖ‪.‬‬

‫ﺛﺎﻟﺜﺎً‪ :‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻒ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﺒﺴﻂ‪:‬‬

‫�ﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ‪) 21‬ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ‪(2‬‬

‫‪18‬‬
 ‫‪n‬‬
‫‪H j = Σ = a n +1,i rij‬‬
‫‪i =1‬‬

‫‪H1= (0.100)(4.074)+(0.075 x 2.370)=0.585‬‬

‫‪H2=(0.100)(3.241)+(0.075 x 3.704)=0.601‬‬

‫ﺭﺍﺑﻌﺎً‪ :‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻹﲨﺎﱄ‪:‬‬

‫�ﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ‪) 22‬ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ‪:(2‬‬

‫‪n +1‬‬
‫‪H j = Σ a n +1,i rij‬‬
‫‪i =1‬‬

‫‪H1 = (0.100)(5.820) + (0.075)(3.686) = 0.858‬‬

‫‪H 2 = (0.100)(5.036) + 0.075)(5.057) = 0.882‬‬

‫ﺧﺎﻣﺴﺎً‪ :‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻂ ‪: I‬‬

‫�ﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ‪) 24‬ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ‪:(2‬‬

‫‪n‬‬ ‫‪an +1,i rij‬‬ ‫‪Hj‬‬

‫‪Fi = Σ‬‬ ‫=‬
‫‪i =1‬‬ ‫‪an +1, j‬‬ ‫‪an +1, j‬‬

‫‪F1=0.585/0.100=5.850‬‬
‫‪F2=0.601/0.075=8.013‬‬

‫ﺳﺎﺩﺳﺎً‪ :‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ‪: II‬‬

‫�ﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ‪) 25‬ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ‪:(2‬‬

‫‪19‬‬
 ‫‪n +1 a‬‬
‫‪n +1,i rij‬‬ ‫‪Hj‬‬
‫‪Fj = Σ‬‬ ‫=‬
‫‪i =1‬‬ ‫‪an +1, j‬‬ ‫‪an +1, j‬‬

‫‪F1 = 0.858/0.100 = 8.580‬‬

‫‪F2 = 0.882/0.075 = 11.76‬‬

‫ﺳﺎﺑﻌﺎً‪ :‬ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺴﻄﺔ‪:‬‬

‫�ﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ‪) 26‬ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ )‪:(2‬‬

‫‪n‬‬
‫‪E j = Σ ω n +1,i rij‬‬
‫‪i =1‬‬
‫‪E1=(0.006 X 4.074)+(0.004 X 2.370)=0.033‬‬
‫‪E2=(0.006 X 3.241) + (0.004 X 3.704) = 0.034‬‬

‫‪20‬‬
 ‫ﺛﺎﻣﻨﺎً‪ :‬ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻹﲨﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫�ﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ‪) 27‬ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ‪: (2‬‬

‫‪n +1‬‬
‫‪E j = Σ Wn +1,i rij‬‬
‫‪i =1‬‬

‫‪E1 = (0.006 X 5.820)(0.004 X 3.686) = 0.049‬‬

‫‪E2 = (0.006 X 5.036)(0.004 X 5.057) = 0.050‬‬

‫ﺗﺎﺳﻌﺎً‪ :‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ )ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻂ ‪:( II,I‬‬

‫�ﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ‪) 28‬ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ‪:(2‬‬

‫‪Ej‬‬ ‫‪n‬‬ ‫‪ω n +1, i rij‬‬

‫= ‪Wj‬‬ ‫‪= Σ‬‬
‫‪ω n +1, j‬‬ ‫‪i =1‬‬ ‫‪ω n +1, j‬‬

‫‪W1= 0.049/0.006=8.166‬‬
‫‪W2=0.050/0.004=12.500‬‬

‫‪21‬‬