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Aerospace America 09.2023
Aerospace America 09.2023
Aerospace America 09.2023
The top scientist on NASA’s water surveyer Tracking pilot eye movements The challenges for hydrogen-powered jets
SEPTEMBER 2023 | A publication of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics | aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org
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FEATURED SPEAKERS
A.C. CHARANIA KAM GHAFFARIAN JAY KIM PAM MELROY KAY SEARS
Chief Technologist, NASA CEO and Founder, IBX, and Chairman and CEO, Deputy Administrator, Vice President and
Executive Chairman, Axiom Boryung NASA General Manager, Space,
Space Intelligence, and Weapon
Systems, Boeing Defense,
Space & Security
NASA collected its first asteroid dirt and rocks in October 2020, when the OSIRIS-REx spacecraft reached out its arm and touched asteroid Bennu. The sampler
head at the end of the arm made contact for six seconds, releasing a puff of nitrogen gas that stirred up the regolith and pushed it into the sampler.
18
Bringing bits of
26
Where’s my hydrogen
aircraft?
36
The perfect SAR process
As the U.S. National
Calls are growing to establish a Reconnaissance Office works to
Bennu home Manhattan Project for hydrogen- establish a large-scale program
powered aircraft, as the air for purchasing commercial radar
NASA’s OSIRIS-REx planners drew lessons transport industry struggles to imagery, four experts offered their
from history to devise their sample return chart a viable path to net-zero visions for how best to get these
strategy. On Sept. 24, we’ll found out how carbon emissions by 2050. products to U.S. troops.
they did.
By Paul Marks By Debra Werner
By Keith Button
S E PT E M BE R 2023,
VOL . 61, NO. 8 Keith Button
Keith has written for C4ISR Journal and Hedge Fund Alert, where he broke
EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
news of the 2007 Bear Stearns scandal that kicked off the global credit crisis.
Ben Iannotta He is based in New York.
beni@aiaa.org
PAGE 18
ASSOCIATE EDITOR
Cat Hofacker
catherineh@aiaa.org Moriba Jah
Moriba is an associate professor at the University of Texas at Austin and
STAFF REPORTER
chief scientist at Privateer. He helped navigate spacecraft at NASA’s Jet
Paul Brinkmann Propulsion Lab and researched space situational awareness issues at the
paulb@aiaa.org
U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory.
PAGE 64
EDITOR, AIAA BULLETIN
Christine Williams
christinew@aiaa.org
Jon Kelvey
CONTRIBUTING WRITERS Jon previously covered space for The Independent in the U.K. His work has
Keith Button, Moriba Jah, Jon Kelvey, appeared in Air and Space Magazine, Slate, Smithsonian and The Washington
Paul Marks, Robert van der Linden, Post. He is based in Maryland.
Debra Werner, Frank H. Winter PAGE 9
CORRESPONDENCE
DEPARTMENTS
Ben Iannotta, beni@aiaa.org
4 Editor’s Notebook
Aerospace America (ISSN 0740-722X) is published monthly 5 For the Record
except in August by the American Institute of Aeronautics
and Astronautics Inc., at 12700 Sunrise Valley Drive, Suite
7 Flight Path
200 Reston, VA 20191-5807 [703-264-7500]. Subscription 42 From the Institute
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foreign, $220. Single copies $25 each. Postmaster: Send
45 AIAA Bulletin
62 Looking Back
8 9
address changes and subscription orders to Aerospace
America, American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics,
AeroPuzzler R&D
at 12700 Sunrise Valley Drive, Reston, VA, 20191-5807, Why do clouds in Jupiter’s This eye-tracking software
Attn: A.I.A.A. Customer Service. Periodical postage AD INDEX Great Spot rotate could measure pilot fatigue
paid at Reston, Virginia, and at additional mailing counterclockwise?
offices. Copyright 2023 by the American Institute of
Ansys ........................................ 35
Aeronautics and Astronautics Inc., all rights reserved.
The name Aerospace America is registered by the AIAA in
the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office.
Career Opportunities ................. 60
Estes Education........................... 2
10 64
SAE International ...................... 16
Q&A Jahniverse
NASA’s Vinogradova Shiffer Don’t fear the AI revolution
SpaceX ...................................... 25 on SWOT, the agency’s
newest water surveyer
Textron Aviation........................... 2
I
n the United Kingdom, an unwritten rule says that two heirs to suddenly gave way. Th is person lived long enough to have children
the British throne should not travel together by air, according to and pass on a set of superior genes. On this point, I see a strong
Business Insider and others. The intent, I suppose, is to avoid the signal in the literature that exactly how the brain detects danger
royal equivalent of the speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives and our reactions to it is poorly understood. For sure it’s complicat-
becoming the leader of the free world. ed, involving more than just the amygdala and prefrontal cortex.
The heir rule sounds a bit like “amygdala hijacking,” the psy- Maybe our wise pre-teen had a previous close call with a fall, and
chology term for when this almond-shaped cluster of neurons in the memory of this, encoded and later retrieved by the hippocam-
our brains unnecessarily triggers our fight, flight or freeze response. pus, drove an appropriate fear response.
I say hijacking because, as we all know, air travel is far safer, statis- The point is, our ancestors in many regions had to regularly
tically speaking, than riding in a car, and yet up to 40% of us suffer navigate terrain and climb trees to find food. They probably evolved
from “flying-related anxiety,” according to a 2016 paper in Frontiers to do so with risk in mind. A strong respect, if not fear, of heights
in Psychology. By contrast, just one in 10 U.S. adults report experi- became ingrained in us over the course of our evolution. Flashing
encing amaxophobia, the fear of driving a car or riding in one, ac- forward: Perhaps when you experience turbulence during a fl ight,
cording to the Cleveland Clinic. Put another way, most of us don’t the shaking harkens back to the rocks at the edge of a cliff starting
hesitate to hurtle past trees and cement poles at 70% of the terminal to give way.
velocity of a human being. Some of us even need to be coerced by In that same ancestral era, however, no one roared along hori-
the threat of a ticket to wear a seatbelt. It’s quite a paradox. zontally faster than any creature could propel itself. Therefore, no
I’ve been reading up in search of a scientific explanation for all one died foolhardily before passing on their genes. If anyone was
this. My inspiration came partly from the letters we received (see smart enough to fear speed, there was no evolutionary advantage
page 5) in response to the opinion piece in the July/August issue, to that fear. Going fast today does not harken back to anything in
“Safety versus innovation: It’s time for rebalancing.” Let’s set aside, our evolution, so for most of us, riding in or driving a fast car doesn’t
for now, the controversial contention that safety standards for air spark fear the way flying does for some.
travel should be aligned with those governing automobiles. What Could our evolutionary history partly explain why safety stan-
I’m looking for is any logic and science that could explain how we dards for automobiles and road infrastructure are weaker than for
humans arrived at this place where so many of us respond to flying aircraft? Maybe, but it’s just a hunch.
as though it’s riskier than driving.
What follows is a guess from Googling and reading for about
two hours, so I would not dare to call it a theory. I welcome any
crowdsourcing about studies or principles that could support or
dispel this notion.
Imagine a couple of rambunctious pre-adolescent ancestors of
ours approaching the edge of a forbidden cliff. Let’s say it’s about
400,000 years ago and, in this period, the prefrontal cortexes of our
ancestors suddenly expanded. That’s the part of the brain that turns Ben Iannotta, editor-in-chief, beni@aiaa.org
fear into wise action. The tween whose brain recognized the risk
likely stayed farther back from the edge and survived when the rocks
de Crespigny on single-pilot operations Navigating autonomously Is there such a thing as too safe?
JULY/AUGUST 2023 | A publication of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics | aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org
CORRECTION
The Aug. 16, 1948, entry in the July/August Looking Back column should have
made clear that the accompanying photo shows the Northrop XF-89, a proto-
type of future versions of the F-89 Scorpion fighters. Also, the entry should
have noted that the final Scorpion variant, the F-89Js, had pylons under the
wings to hold Falcon missiles and nuclear-armed Genie rockets.
The middle ground in the firefighting “can load from just about any body of water large
debate enough, they are limited to dropping plain water or
On the question of whether clean-sheet designs are foam suppressant, not the long-term retardant that is
needed to fight wildfires, an idea explored in the July/ most effective in building fi re-line.”
August cover story, “Tomorrow’s fi refighting fleet,” Also, “I would have liked to have seen some men-
AIAA senior member Bill Fredericks writes that “this tion of helicopters used in wildland fi refighting. It is
is NOT a binary decision, and the right answer is my opinion that in terms of response time and effec-
likely half way between” retrofitting existing aircraft tiveness, the heavy snorkel-equipped helicopter is the
and creating clean-sheet designs. “Take an existing best initial attack vehicle.”
design and apply external modifications to the design
under a supplemental type certification process (or An idea for better lunar comms
similar process depending on the relevant regulatory After reading our July/August feature, “Live from the
authority) to adapt the existing design to be better moon in HD,” AIAA senior member Stanley Clark
suited to the water bombing mission,” writes Freder- has a possible solution for ensuring adequate band-
icks, who is chief technology officer of Advanced width for future missions: Th ink of “Earth, Moon as
Aircraft Co., a Virginia-based drone manufacturer. a two node communication system with a trunk line
Specifically, he likes the idea of modifying the am- connecting them,” writes Clark, a former systems
phibious ShinMaywa US-2. engineer at United Space Alliance. High-bandwidth
For his part, Robin Harrison, a retired U.S. Forest could be achieved “by setting up several lasers con-
Service employee and AIAA senior member, notes necting Earth and the Moon in a laser trunk line and
that “just about any airframe can be adapted to do the routing all Lunar space RF through the Lunar Node
fi refighting job,” but an airtanker’s efficiency is mea- to be digitized, then sent to the Earth Node from the
sured by “the pattern and consistency of the retardant Lunar Node.” Th is would offload “a large chunk of
when it reaches the ground, which are dependent on communication requirements from the Deep Space
the tank design.” While the Canadian Super Scoopers Network and the NSN.”
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5,000+ high-profile decision makers, entrepreneurs, scientists, technologists, and other
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Don’t miss the chance to be seen at the forefront of our industry as we expand the
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T
he ASCEND community continues its journey, looking
forward to its fourth apex event: 2023 ASCEND, 23–25 Oc-
tober, Caesars Forum, Las Vegas, Nevada. We see positive 2023 ASCEND is the nexus for
signs of progress that ASCEND has made in four years by convening addressing the most important
the space industry to make space for all, by expanding our reach to
involve adjacent industries in this interdisciplinary and inclusive
opportunities and challenges that
community, and by driving the conversation toward delivering come with increased activity in
outcomes. Th is year, the apex event is accelerating us toward build-
space today:
ing our sustainable off-world future through collaboration.
Since its inception, ASCEND has directly engaged more than ■ Space and Sustainability: Discovering ideas to
15,000 people across the space community and beyond. During last protect Earth from environmental impact and
year’s apex event, the audience was largely non-AIAA members, at advance space-based sensing tech, clean energy,
57% of attendees. We are especially benefiting from the diverse asteroid mitigation, and more
voices from adjacent industries, having welcomed representatives
from a number of brands like Bechtel, Cedars Sinai, Colgate-Palmolive ■ Space Exploration and Infrastructure: Building the
Company, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Barclays, Morgan Stanley, necessary infrastructure to support human presence
and Proctor and Gamble (P&G), to name a few. Th is year, we look in low Earth orbit, cislunar space, and beyond – from
forward to welcoming 3V Company, Boryung, Husqvarna, ICON, habitats and life-support systems to reliable commu-
PickNik Robotics, and more, to the ASCEND stage. nication networks and propulsion technologies
ASCEND continues delivering on its mission as the catalyst for
■ Space Security and Protection: Exploring mission
the global space conversation. Consistently, the event brings lead-
cybersecurity, policy partnerships, detection, and
ers from international space agencies together to share how they
new technologies for space asset protection
are cooperating around the globe to accelerate space exploration.
The type of collaboration they are pursuing extends beyond nation- ■ Space Traffic Management: Collaborating on efficient
al agencies to include commercial entities and private companies. space traffic management to mitigate collision risks
In addition to its speakers, the ASCEND audience is global – with and safeguard valuable resources
attendees at last year’s apex event hailing from 19 countries.
A key differentiator of ASCEND from other space events and ■ Expanding and Evolving the Space Economy:
initiatives is its attention to delivering outcomes. Every aspect of Shaping the expanding space economy includ-
ASCEND starts with a vision and progresses through a program of ing emerging markets and investment approaches
activities, presentations, and conversations that focus on actionable with a forecast value of $1 trillion by 2040 – from low
outcomes. They are published on the website at www.ascend.events/ Earth orbit to cislunar space
outcomes for ongoing reference, including a report from 2023 AS-
■ Education, Outreach, and Workforce: Focusing on
CENDxTexas, the “Satellite Orbital Safety Best Practices” reference
workforce challenges, diversity, and education in the
guide, and the full text of the Diverse Dozen Op-Eds from the past
commercial space industry
three years. Th is growing body of work is advancing the knowledge
base of the whole ASCEND community.
One of the most valuable assets ASCEND leverages is the
43-member 2023 ASCEND Guiding Coalition (www.ascend.events/ We are eagerly anticipating thousands of diverse dreamers and
about/guiding-coalition). They bring a wealth of experience and doers at 2023 ASCEND. Th is year’s attendees will share their visions
expertise as leaders in commercial space operations, government for space in the next few decades and connect with the key players
space policy, science and technology policy, new entrepreneurial who can help them bring those visions to life. We can’t wait to see
ventures, and business strategy. Th is advisory board of technology, you there. The momentum is growing for 2023 ASCEND.
science, engineering, and business leaders helps maximize ASCEND’s
reach and impact. It has been my pleasure to work closely with them Julie Van Kleeck
designing the content for this year’s apex event. ASCEND Executive Producer and AIAA Space Domain Lead
Great spot
FROM THE JULY/AUGUST ISSUE
A DIMPLE-FREE
Q: The clouds in Jupiter’s Great Red GOLF BALL
Spot rotate counterclockwise, just as We asked you why golf balls have
dimples but aircraft wings don’t.
the clouds of a tropical cyclone in
Earth’s Northern Hemisphere do.
WINNER One important goal for golf balls and aircraft alike is drag
The trouble is that this fierce storm reduction. Aerodynamic drag can be described by the different
mechanisms that generate it; two important sources of drag in this
is located in Jupiter’s southern context are form drag, the drag caused by pressure changes as
hemisphere, where we might expect air moves around an object, and skin friction drag, caused by the
viscosity of the air shearing across the surface of the object. Golf
a clockwise rotation, as is the case balls are approximately spherical, and this blunt shape is difficult
with cyclones below Earth’s equator. for the airstream to wrap neatly around, resulting in a large pressure
differential and high form drag. The dimples induce turbulence in the
Why does the Great Red Spot seem airstream and can be thought of as “adding energy” to the boundary
layer air, helping it to flow around the golf ball and reducing form drag.
to defy the rule? This drag-reducing turbulence is not free; it comes at the price of
increased skin friction drag. Because the golf ball’s area is small and
the form drag is comparatively large, this trade-off is worth it. Aircraft
SEND A RESPONSE OF UP TO 250 WORDS are designed to be slender and aerodynamic, minimizing form drag at
that someone in any field could understand to speed, meaning aircraft have a larger surface area and a comparatively
aeropuzzler@aerospaceamerica.org by noon lower form drag contribution. Adding dimples would actually reduce
Eastern Sept. 13 for a chance to have it form drag but at the cost of increased skin friction drag over a larger
area. In most cases, this trade-off increases the total drag for an
published in the next issue.
aircraft. When aircraft have historically used corrugated skin, it was
to aid in the rigidity of the thin sheet metal, which was a part of the
structure, and the increased surface area hurt drag and performance.
S
ince 2013, software designed by Australian company Seeing An illustration of Seeing Machines’ eye-tracking software, which
Machines has alerted drivers of luxury cars and commercial the company wants to install in airliner cockpits to measure pilot fatigue
and other facets of their performance.
trucks when they are drowsy or inattentive. Someday soon,
that same technology could be installed in passenger, cargo and Seeing Machines
military aircraft. already garnered some interest. Since late 2019, the software has
Today, the software is paired with optical and infrared cameras been operating in a Qantas Airlines 787 fl ight simulator in Sydney.
on the dashboard of 250-ton mining trucks and Cadillac brand cars. Two eye-tracking cameras built by L3Harris, one for each pilot, were
If the cameras detect that a driver’s eyes are drifting from the road installed in the coaming of the glare shield panel that shades the
or closing for a certain amount of time, the software triggers a seat cockpit displays. From this position, the software measures where
vibration to alert the driver. each pilot’s eyes are focused, how often blinking occurs and the
A similar setup in cockpits could do more than monitor pilot position of their heads and bodies, among other metrics. By gauging
drowsiness, says Mike Lenné, chief science and innovation officer not only how tired the pilots are but also where they are focusing
at Seeing Machines. their attention when alert, “They can actually see exactly where the
“What we’ll be is the mechanism to provide an understanding pilot is looking and how they make those decisions,” says Pat Nolan,
of what the human is doing, what they’re looking at, where their the Seeing Machines general manager for aviation.
attention is,” says Lenné. “It’s really important as the levels of au- And Seeing Machines isn’t the only organization that’s identified
tonomy continue to go up in the aviation industry that there is a a need for such technology. Researchers at NASA’s Armstrong Flight
system in there that isn’t only about automation, but that there’s a Research Center in California are studying ways to monitor breathing
system in there that’s actually concentrating on the human.” patterns and other measures to predict pilot performance. Across the
Work is underway with Collins Aerospace, whom Seeing Ma- pond, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency since 2022 has been
chines struck an exclusive intellectual property licensing agreement studying whether it is possible to reduce the number of pilots in the
with in May. Plans call for Collins to develop the cameras and cockpit. Under one of these concepts, Single Pilot Operations, a lone
other avionics required to install the Seeing Machines technology pilot would fly a cargo aircraft aided by increased automation.
in cockpits. Initially, the software would only monitor pilot perfor- Nolan says that although Seeing Machines does not have a
mance, but Seeing Machines believes the technology could one day position on single-pilot proposals, the eye-tracking software could
be modified to interact directly with the fl ight controls. In one such be a useful tool for airlines and regulators looking to quantify the
scenario, automation could be prompted to take control of the effects of making any changes to fl ight crews, including practices
aircraft if the software determines a pilot is incapacitated or unaware such as controlled rest or reduced crews for long-haul fl ights.
of an imminent danger. “It’s certainly not something that we advocate,” Nolan says of
In addition to airlines, Seeing Machines also plans to market its shifts to smaller fl ight crews, but “unless you understand the exist-
eye-monitoring software to pilot trainers — and the company has ing, how do you support the change?”
NA DYA
VINO G R A DOVA
SH IFFER
POSITIONS: Since 2019,
manager of the Ocean
Physics Program at NASA
Headquarters, overseeing
seven satellite missions,
including Surface Water
and Ocean Topography
(SWOT), that explore the link
between the world’s oceans
and the climate. Doubled as
top scientist of the U.S.-
European Sentinel-6 Michael
Freilich radar altimeter
satellite that measures sea
surface height. 2016-2019,
founder and principal
scientist at the Cambridge
Climate Institute in
Massachusetts, a nonprofit
that created atmospheric
models based on NASA
satellite observations. 2005-
2016, conducted ocean
physics and climate research
as a member of the science
team of various NASA Earth
observation missions.
Q&A
NOTABLE: Grew up in Ukraine
and came to the U.S. in
2000 to earn a Ph.D. at
the University of Southern
Mississippi’s Department
of Marine Science, at
NASA’s Stennis Space
Center. Defined the science
objectives for SWOT, the
first satellite to measure the
A
s a tempest of wildfires, floods and record-breaking temperatures swept across Earth in of 6 hectares and greater.
June and July, Nadya Vinogradova Shiffer and her colleagues at NASA and the French
space agency CNES were preparing to begin science operations with a satellite that AGE: 46
could help climate researchers predict which regions are at the greatest risk of those
RESIDES: Washington, D.C.
and other long-term impacts of our warming planet. Both agencies have satellites that
survey the oceans, but SWOT, launched in December, will be the first to measure the cycling of water EDUCATION: Master’s degree
across Earth’s entire surface, including its oceans, lakes and rivers — hence the satellite’s full name, in applied mathematics
Surface Water Ocean Topography. Success of the three-year mission hinges on turning the interfer- from Nizhny Novgorod
ence patterns of reflected microwave radar signals into measurements of surface height, a technique State University in Russia,
1999; Ph.D. in physical
never before applied in Earth observations. I reached Vinogradova Shiffer, the top scientist for
oceanography from the
SWOT, at her summer home in New Hampshire. We discussed the satellite’s brush with failure and University of Southern
the revelations SWOT could bring now that that problem is behind it. Here is our video conversation, Mississippi, 2004.
compressed and lightly edited. — Cat Hofacker
And then for about six months, we’ve been flying A: The component that shut down is essentially a
in that lower orbit and collecting measurements very sensitive circuit breaker. There are just so many
every day over a certain location over the globe. It electronics on the KaRIn instrument that the circuit
was what I called a “daily water show.” So every breaker just blew, so we turned it off to protect the
day we would have the view of the water, whether whole instrument. Then we did a series of tests to
it is over the ocean or it’s a lake or a river or a coast. understand, “All right, is it really something going
That allowed us to really fine-tune our measurement on? Or just by design, the system shuts down?” We
algorithms and our calibration system, so we would tried to restart it. We tried to analyze a bunch of
be more comfortable and ready to boost the satel- voltage experiments jointly with NASA and CNES
lite into its science orbit. The world community has engineers. What we finally ended up doing is switch-
really mobilized across the whole globe for our ing to a similar unit on the spacecraft. NASA, in its
commissioning period by sending ships and airplanes wisdom, when we launch something new, we build
and water instrumentation. So in addition to the two of them. So we had two KaRIns on board, and
NASA and CNES calibration/validation campaign, we’ve always treated side A and side B completely
there were more than 50 field campaigns, self-mo- identical. So we decided to switch to side B and
bilized in a coordinated manner. They were helping restart, and it paid off.
us by collecting ground data that helped us validate
these novel measurements with SWOT that nobody Q: That was a lucky break. So there are two of
has collected before. this specific component, or duplicates of every
single component on KaRIn?
Q: You had a scare during commissioning when A: It’s not every single component of the observa-
KaRIn shut down for about two months. What tory, but for the key subsystems, we have a unit A
was the cause? and unit B — two redundant units.
SAE Revamps
Foundational Aviation
Safety Standards for
Changing Industry
Landscape
S
AE International is currently working on the release of revised The committee hopes to get both revised standards released at the
versions of two longstanding critical modern aviation safety same time, or “as close to the same day as practical,” according to Mike
standards used for product assurance and certification of Noorman, an aerospace consultant who has been on the committee
civil aircraft. These updates will affect aviation OEMs and suppliers for ten years and took over chairing the committee in April 2023.
across the board, realigning regulators and industry in a rapidly
transforming industry. Aligning on Safety as Industry Advances
The two standards—ARP4754, the development assurance The revised standards will address technical changes in aviation
process, or the ‘what to do book’, and ARP4761, the safety assessment over the last 20 to 30 years.
process, or the ‘how to do it’ book—originally arose from the dis- Back in the early 90s, during the digital age, Peterson recalled,
cussion and collaboration process in the SAE’s S-18 Aircraft and things were getting very complicated very quickly in aviation tech-
Systems Development and Safety Assessment committee, formed nology. “It was becoming difficult to compare and ensure that each
in 1992 based on a recommendation by the FAA. aircraft was satisfying the same safety objectives, because everybody
The two standards were originally released in late 1996. was doing different techniques using different processes. The FAA
The committee is currently set to release the second revision of came out and said, ‘Hey, we need to get the industry together and,
ARP4754, or revision B. “That is a more general update with improve- here’s the best way to do that.’”
ments to correct potential interpretation issues that we had received Noorman said that he thinks most of the revision activity has
feedback on,” said Eric Peterson, aerospace safety engineer with the been about just trying to make sure that the industry is in alignment
FAA and the vice chair of the S-18 committee during that standard’s with what the regulators are looking for when it comes to aircraft
revision process. “We were trying to improve some of that.” system development processes and safety processes.
“One of the biggest needs for these updates was to really help
people new to the industry that are maybe not as experienced when
they’re reading them,” Noorman said. “Safety is not about just Prepare your organization
generating an analysis document. It’s not about just reviewing
something. You’re an integral part of the development process.”
for compliance.
Understanding the requirements
The Work of the S-18 Committee of SAE ARP4754™, SAE ARP4761™,
Leading up to the revised releases, the committee has been assess- and appropriate methodologies
ing the behaviors designed into aircraft and systems, figuring out for implementation is critical.
the risks and the criticality of those risks, and then coming up with Learn how the SAE team is
a process to assure that those risks have been addressed and make creating knowledge and training
sure that the vehicles are safe. packages tailored to your
David Alexander, senior director of standards at SAE, said that organization’s needs.
his team facilitates the development of the standards by, in part,
organizing and facilitating meetings, and providing the online
workspace for the committees to write, discuss, and manage their
standards. books are huge,” Peterson said. “That’s why it takes so long to create
The committee wants to make sure they are producing documents and get consensus.”
which are scalable and usable for a number of different applications. Another challenge is cybersecurity. Noorman said that the
“SAE has strong relationships with regulatory agencies like the FAA, versions of the two documents about to be released don’t address
NASA and their counterparts around the world who use industry cybersecurity in any way. “That was intentional. As a committee,
documents like ARP4754 and ARP4761 as an accepted means of what we like to do is, from a strategy perspective, look at what the
compliance to support the certification process,” Alexander said. emerging things are within industry, where there’s a team of people
ARP4754 has always been about what you needed to do at the that say, ‘Hey, we think we need to write something on this but it
hardware and software level, according to Noorman. Revision A of may not have reached the point of industry consensus yet,’” he said.
ARP4754, published by SAE in December 21, 2010, got even more They may be standing up their own working group to explicitly
explicit in this regard, he said. “It identified the types of things that address cyber resilience and safety in the near future.
you need to do for developing a function, and then if your function
is made up of hardware and software, this is how you might interface Revisions Today Working for Tomorrow
from a development assurance perspective.” Standards like these two are an increasingly important part of the
The committee wants ARP4754B and ARP4761A to align with future because there’s a lot of real dynamism in the aviation indus-
each other, Noorman said. “We want you to be able to have both try right now, Alexander said. “Not just in terms of building or de-
documents, with no question about what the interfaces between veloping the next products to support more long-standing aircraft
the system process and safety process are.” types of designs and operations, but also looking at some of the
newer forms of aviation, whether that’s unmanned systems both
The Challenges commercial and defense, and use of things like supersonic passen-
One of the committee’s challenges was dealing with the sheer size ger jets and other advanced mobility vehicles,” he said. “These
of the documents—ARP4754 comes in at around 115 pages, and is standards have to be designed in a way that will support different
intended to be used as a reference, while ARP4761 is 331 pages. The applications and maintain the integrity and safety for which these
committee wants to couple the two documents together. “These two vehicles and operations have to comply.”
COVER STORY
250 g s of
our history
18 | SEPTEMBER 2023 | aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org
A lot can go wrong when you’re trying to
collect matter from deep space and bring
it home. Your spacecraft could crash-land
on its target, as a Japanese spacecraft
did in 2005. Your capsule’s parachute
could fail and the capsule could slam into
the ground, breaking into thousands of
pieces, as a NASA capsule did in 2004.
Keith Button spoke to the team that aims
to deliver bits of the asteroid Bennu
home on Sept. 24 without any drama.
China Chang’e 5 Dec. 17, 2020 Return lunar regolith from Landed in the Inner Mongolia region of northern China via
the Mons Rümker volcanic parachute with 1,730 grams of lunar dirt and rocks.
mound northwest of the
moon’s equator.
Japan Hayabusa2 Dec. 6, 2020 Return rocks and dirt Landed by parachute in Australia with 5 grams of material,
from near-Earth asteroid 540 milligrams of which were shared by the Japan Aerospace
Ryugu. Exploration Agency with NASA, which plans to return the favor
and share a portion of the OSIRIS-REx samples with JAXA.
Russia Fobos-Grunt August 2014 (planned) Return 200 grams of soil Became stranded in Earth orbit when the Fregat upper stage
from Phobos, one of the did not fire its engines. In early 2012, the spacecraft reentered
two Martian moons. the atmosphere.
Japan Hayabusa June 2010 Return samples from Landed by parachute in Australia carrying about 1 milligram,
near-Earth asteroid 15,000 grains. The collecting mechanism was damaged during
Itokawa. its first sampling attempt, but scientists believe some particles
were pushed into the sample container during the impact with
the asteroid.
U.S. Stardust January 2006 Collect particles from the Landed in the Utah desert by parachute with 10,000 particles
tail of comet Wild 2 and larger than 1 micrometer from Wild 2, plus separately collected
from space dust. samples of space dust, including seven rare microscopic parti-
cles that dated back to the origins of the solar system.
Genesis U.S. September 2004 Collect solar wind ions. Drogue and main parachute failed to deploy, foiling plans for
a helicopter to swoop in with a dangling hook and snatch the
chute and gently lower the capsule to the ground. The capsule
impacted the ground at 311 kilometers per hour in the Utah
desert, but scientists salvaged most of the samples.
Soviet Luna missions 1969-1976 Return samples of lunar A combined 301 grams of lunar soil was returned. Eleven Luna
Union dirt and rocks. probes were launched; three managed to deliver samples
to Kazakhstan. Some failed in spectacular fashion: Luna 18
crashed some 500 kilometers from the Apollo 11 site while
Armstrong and Aldrin were on the moon.
into the metal plates not to be disturbed by contam- On top of that, still percolating in memories was
inants from the crash. Even so, 2004 was a discour- the loss of NASA’s Mars Climate Orbiter, which in
aging year for Lauretta, then the deputy principal 1999 missed its orbit altitude and disintegrated in
investigator, and colleagues, who were trying to win the Martian atmosphere due to a navigation error
approval for their mission to Bennu on the heels of caused by one team using metric units and another
the Genesis crash. The team’s fi rst proposal was re- using English units. Also in 1999, Mars Polar Land-
jected by NASA. er crashed during its descent when its main engines
“We got hammered on engineering, and Lockheed shut down prematurely.
is our aerospace provider, and they just crashed in “There were a lot of failures in planetary science,”
the desert,” Lauretta says. Lauretta recalls.
hours and 97,000 kilometers before the capsule’s facility in Littleton, Colorado, to the Geotechnical NASA/Keegan Barber
landing in Utah. Once detached, the capsule will be Centrifuge Laboratory at the University of Colorado
autonomous; it won’t be able to receive any commands Boulder, about an hour away.
from the ground. Should the detachment not work, “You put an astronaut on a centrifuge to make
the spacecraft would be put in a backup orbit for a sure that they can survive the launch environment
second attempt in September 2025. If all goes as and the reentry conditions. We put our return capsule
planned, though, the capsule will enter the atmosphere through the centrifuge for exactly the same reason,”
and release the drogue and main parachute that will Lauretta says.
carry it to the desert floor. (Unlike Genesis, no heli- But the process would be more complex. From
copter is involved at this point.) Meanwhile, the earlier tests, they had determined that they also
spacecraft will maneuver to continue in an orbit needed to cancel out the 1-g effects — Earth’s natural
around the sun. gravity — for the centrifuge to realistically mimic
After the Genesis crash, the NASA-convened reentry forces, says Josh Wood, who led OSIRIS-Rex’s
investigative board traced the cause to the mission’s system design at the time.
autonomous fl ight phase. Four spring-loaded switch- The solution: They attached the loaf-of-bread-sized
es, each the size of the metal cylinder on the eraser trigger assembly to a plate that would spin it like a
end of a pencil, were supposed to initiate a timer that Lazy Susan as the centrifuge arm spun the unit. The
would trigger pyrotechnics to release the capsule’s spinning of the plate would cancel out the lateral
parachutes. But the switches were installed backward, g-forces. They ran the centrifuge to replicate the full
so the weighted plungers inside the switches couldn’t range of g-forces the capsule would experience during
press down in response to the capsule’s deceleration entry, a maximum of 40 gs. The results showed that
as it entered the atmosphere. The electrical circuit the trigger assembly would work as planned.
needed to arm the timer could not be completed. They also tested the switches that must react when
Lockheed Martin engineers installed the switch- the capsule impacts the ground, sparking another
es backward because that’s how they were drawn in pyrotechnic device that shoots a knife through the
Airbus
| R 3 | g
Even if a new breed of aircraft powered by hydrogen
were available by 2035, that might not be fast enough to
help much with the industry’s goal of reaching net-zero
carbon emissions by 2050. Paul Marks takes us inside the
technical challenges facing hydrogen aircraft — and the
case for vastly increasing the resources currently applied to
the necessary technologies and infrastructure.
g | | 27
E
Airbus plans to assess arlier this year, two budget airlines in India In a rival approach, Airbus has teamed with CFM
liquid hydrogen and fuel and one in Ireland placed a series of colossal International, while Rolls-Royce has teamed with
cell propulsion by trying
orders for kerosene-fueled jetliners. These 1,270 easyJet, a budget airline in the United Kingdom, to
out the technologies on
its ZEROe demonstrator, a
aircraft contributed to the aviation industry’s get hydrogen-powered aircraft onto the market by
modified A380. A series of best sales in the fi rst half of any year since 2010, 2035. Even so, IATA doesn’t expect enough of those
research flights are planned but the early 2030s delivery dates for many of to be flying in time to make a major contribution to
for the mid-2020s. This the aircraft means they will be flying, and emitting the net-zero goal. In fact, it places hydrogen combus-
illustration shows a fuel cell
climate-warming carbon dioxide, well past the mid- tion and hydrogen fuel cell options as only part of the
engine installed upstream
of the aircraft’s tail. Liquid
dle of the century. That’s the very time period when 13% contribution it anticipates from “new technolo-
hydrogen stored in the the Montreal-based International Air Transport gies.” IATA expects the lion’s share of the contribution
fuselage would generate Association, whose member airlines carry 83% of the (65%) to be made by SAF. The balance of the way to
electricity for propulsion. At world’s passengers and cargo, wants to achieve net-zero would be achieved by capturing carbon from
right, a turbofan engine has
net-zero carbon dioxide emissions for air travel, the air, planting additional trees to “offset” CO2
been installed instead. The
green cylinders represent
specifically by 2050. emissions and tightening fl ight routes, among other
the internal hydrogen tanks. How can net-zero be possible with so many operational efficiencies.
Airbus
kerosene-burning jets on order now? IATA has an If the aviation industry is to get hydrogen airliners
answer, but it’s one that hydrogen fans aren’t convinced flying sooner than 2035, what’s needed is a focused
is feasible: IATA is encouraging the introduction of research and development effort akin to J. Robert
sustainable aviation fuels, SAF, made from renewable Oppenheimer’s Manhattan Project, says Rob Miller,
feedstocks like recycled cooking oils, agricultural a professor of aerothermal technology and director
waste and forestry debris. These fuels, which are just of the Whittle Laboratory at the University of Cam-
starting to be used, can be “dropped in” existing bridge in the U.K. Why might a project on such a scale
aircraft and burned just like fossil fuels. Today, they be needed? The tempest of wildfi res, heatwaves and
are blended with kerosene, but the aim is to fly aircraft other severe weather this year suggests we’re rapidly
on 100% SAF. No additional CO2 would be added to approaching the 1.5 degree Celsius threshold that
the atmosphere, because as the crops grew, they could have catastrophic consequences, including
extracted CO2 to make their biomass. severe flooding prompted by meters of sea level rise.
1.35
Gigatons of C02
21.2 gigatons
0.90
0.35
0
2020 2035 2050
Offsetting/carbon capture
Infrastructure/operations
efficiences like flight routing
13%
Graphic by Thor Design, reporting by Paul Marks | Source: International Air Transport Association
That 5% isn’t a lot right now, but the share could grow enough SAF can be produced to meet the envisioned
without advances in clean technologies. Other sectors 65% contribution to net-zero. IATA estimates that
are working to cut their emissions. Meanwhile, pas- about 449 billion liters of SAF will be needed annu-
senger numbers are projected to double or even triple ally by 2050 to meet that goal, but in 2022, just 300
by 2050, sending aviation’s share of emissions to million liters were produced. Liquid hydrogen com-
anywhere from 10% to 37% of the global total, accord- busted directly in jet engines or converted into elec-
ing to calculations by the Aviation Impact Accelerator, tricity via fuel cells to drive motors, however, would
an offshoot of the Whittle Lab that develops comput- automatically rid fl ights of CO2 emissions, as there’s
er models for sustainable fl ight researchers. no carbon in their chemistry to emit. So why exactly
While Boeing is focused on SAF, and IATA is is it taking so long to develop these new aircraft?
largely counting on it, no one can say for certain that “There’s three embedded challenges,” says Alan
then burning it.” including the Whittle Lab, the U.K.’s Aerospace
“The second challenge is a lack of green hydrogen Technology Institute, and Cranfield University —
infrastructure,” he says, referring to the production focusing on everything from test rigs to combustors,
of hydrogen through the electrolysis of water using fuel injectors, cryogenic pumps, on-aircraft fuel
only renewably sourced electricity. “Over 95% of the transport issues and fuel storage.
hydrogen produced today comes from fossil fuels, and On Newby’s fi rst point (the technical challenges
so industry in general has got a massive challenge on of the aircraft and engines), one has to take into account
its hands to develop a green hydrogen production the curious energy density and volumetric properties
industry. Even if I had a viable aircraft today, I still of liquid hydrogen. “A kilogram of hydrogen produc-
wouldn’t have a viable aviation system.” es three times the energy of a kilogram of kerosene,
On that supply point in particular, Newby supports which is great because aircraft are always weight
Miller’s notion of a hydrogen-specific Manhattan restricted,” he says. “The downside is that the kilogram
Project. “If we’re going to move quicker, the industry of liquid hydrogen takes up four times the volume of
needs to receive more funding, not just on the tech- a kilogram of kerosene.”
nology but on the hydrogen infrastructure as well.” And that has major implications for two key features
And the third challenge? “There’s some uncertain- of the airframe layout: where you put the fuel tanks
ty, though we think it’s all positive, about the non-CO2 and the passengers. “With hydrogen aircraft, the
pollutants of hydrogen combustion and the water vapor combination of the fuel and tanks is lighter than with
Graphic by Thor Design, reporting by Cat Hofacker and Paul Marks | Source: Airbus
can be similar, “requiring only combustion and fuel Can we burn it safely and successfully and manage
system adaptation for hydrogen,” says Llewellyn. “The the pollutants [like NOx] that come with it?” says
igniter technology may not differ too greatly from a Newby. “Second, can we move it around the engine,
kerosene one, but injectors will have differences in control something which is running on hydrogen,
design to cope with hydrogen’s fuel characteristics and pump liquid hydrogen at minus 253 degrees
and to minimize non-CO2 emissions.” Celsius, for example. And third, can we package an
Those non-CO2 emissions include oxides of engine with all the new heat exchangers that we will
nitrogen gases, or NOx, created when nitrogen and need, plus the new fuel system and pumps. There’s a
oxygen from the air react as the hydrogen burns. whole engine packaging challenge to meet.”
Rolls’ next move will be to take one of its Pearl 15 jet Aiding this research is Rolls’ involvement in a
turbines — which power the Mach-0.9-capable Bom- number of collaborative research programs with its
bardier Express 6500 business jet — and convert it to prime hydrogen jet engine project sponsor easyJet,
burn hydrogen. This will involve developing all the plus partners Spirit AeroSystems of the U.S. and Re-
cryogenic fuel distribution systems that the engine will action Engines of the U.K., the latter having a cryo-
need around it. Plans call for conducting ground tests genic heat-exchanger technology that was originally
and later flying the modified engine in a demonstrator. developed for Skylon, a putative single-stage-to-orbit,
“We’ll be looking at the combustion of hydrogen: air-breathing spaceplane.
On the Airbus side, flight tests are also in the works. impact of the contrail could be about the same as from
Plans call for installing a CFM-built hydrogen combus- the CO2 from the flight hanging around for 100 years.”
tion engine onto a modified A380 test aircraft and flying If the brave, new world of hydrogen aviation were
it between 2026 and 2028, powered by four liquid hy- to produce a great deal of contrail-based climate
drogen tanks in the fuselage. Comparable flights are warming — perhaps even more than kerosene jets
also planned with an in-development fuel cell engine. produce — the point of switching to hydrogen would
be lost, as Aerospace America reported earlier this
“Clean” flying? year [“The dark side of green,” page 24, June 2023].
It’s not just NOx from hydrogen jet engines that will As a result, engineers want to measure just how
need careful controlling. Like kerosene engines do the emissions from a hydrogen engine differ from those
today, hydrogen turbines would produce water vapor of a kerosene one. To find out, DLR, the German Aero-
as a result of the chemistry of hydrogen combustion space Center, alongside Airbus, plans to undertake a
in air: two hydrogen molecules combining with one series of live in-flight experiments in which two jet-pow-
oxygen molecule to create a whole lot of heat, plus two ered sailplanes — one propelled by kerosene, the
water molecules. And when warm, moist air from the other by hydrogen — will be followed by a DLR plane
engine exhaust contacts the frigid air at cruise altitudes, brimming with atmospheric sensors. The data har-
ice crystals can form reflective condensation trails, vested should reveal the size, distribution and densi-
or contrails. These in turn may form cirrus clouds that ty of water vapor, contrail ice crystals, NOx levels and
trap heat in the atmosphere through radiative forcing. particulates, allowing scientists to make some action-
Atmospheric scientists have strong evidence that able comparisons between kerosene and hydrogen jet
the climate impact of contrails from kerosene-fueled engine contrail formation at different altitudes.
planes could be as much as that caused by the CO2 Help may be at hand, and from an unlikely source:
they emit — in other words, an additional 2.5% of artificial intelligence. The frequency and conditions
global warming could be due to contrails. The finding surrounding contrail formation has given the Advanced
fi rst appeared in September 2020 in what has turned Research Projects Agency-Energy in Washington, D.C.,
out to be a highly influential research paper written an idea: Could it be possible to recognize the combi-
by a team of 21 scientists, led by David Lee of the U.K.’s nation of atmospheric and engine exhaust conditions
Manchester Metropolitan University, in the journal necessary to produce contrails and cirrus clouds?
Atmospheric Environment. If the answer is yes, pilots could then be advised
“Only about one in 20 [kerosene-fueled] flights to change altitude or engine settings and effectively
produces a persistent contrail that forms into cirrus switch off the climate-harming contrail. Peter de
cloud,” says Miller of the Whittle Lab. “The CO2 that’s Bock, formerly a principal scientist working on jet
produced by the flight is in the atmosphere for hundreds engines at GE Global Research in upstate New York,
of years, but the contrail is only there for a fraction of thinks so. In February, he established the $10 million,
a day. But for those few hours, we think the climate 18-month PRE-TRAILS research program to solicit
UPL.INC /AIAA-PAPER
I
do not claim to know the “perfect” process, but I’m pretty sure Joi nt I nteragenc y Ta sk Forc e Sout h: “ W it h t he r ig ht
it would be like a prototype we built nearly a decade ago to implementation, this system can be the way ahead and the #1
support tactical users and fi rst responders. system for collecting and exploiting commercial imagery. In the
I was once the SAR program manager in the NGA Infor- near future, I would like to see this working with other data. It is
mation Technology Directorate. I was responsible for trying easy, user friendly and I would have loved to use this system when
to do new things with SAR. We prototyped a lot of wonderful deployed to one of the countries that we support. Th is is the best
ways to access SAR data easily and process it using apps. project I’ve worked on in my collections management career. I
After I left NGA in 2013, they started a project called iView, a sincerely hope this continues ... and helps to change and shape the
joint initiative between NGA and the Air Force Research Lab to future of GEOINT management.”
build a system to order, access and exploit the SAR commercial Since we completed iView, commercial SAR use has greatly
imagery sources of that time: the Italian Cosmo SkyMed constel- expanded. SAR was once limited to spy satellites and large govern-
lation; the German Aerospace Center’s TerraSAR-X satellite; and ment-commercial partnerships, but it’s now fully commercial. We’ve
Radarsat-2, the Canadian Space Agency-MDA Ltd. satellite. I got a problem in helping people understand how to use SAR, but the
worked on iView as a subcontractor. iView was an imagery store- first crucial goal is ordering and delivery that is easy and fast.
front. With a prototype budget, we offered browser-based access Users should be able to order commercial SAR through a web-
to a collection-management tool for image ordering, electronic site, a single interface with access to all the commercial SAR con-
linkage to the SAR vendors that confi rmed orders within seconds, stellations. It should be linked to Google Earth so that they can
delivery of SAR complex data to a cloud server and apps to mess draw a box around the area and say, “I need this resolution of this
with it interactively. Users could view traditional grayscale SAR place on this day or as quickly as possible.” You might even be able
images, but they could also use the complex data to quickly make to say, “I don’t want the whole damn image, because I’m a remote
things like color subaperture images that highlight human-made user and I don’t have a lot of communications. Send me this part
objects. of it right here.”
We completed iView in 2015, and our users from U.S. Southern Some remote users don’t have access to the cloud. They would
Command, Joint Interagency Task Force South, the Federal Emer- get direct downlink, or we would send data via secure fi le transfer
gency Management Agency, the Polar Geospatial Center and NGA protocol as an image or an image chip, if the image is too big. And
gave it the most enthusiastic evaluations I have ever seen. Here are we would give people some simple software to do stuff with it. If
two examples: you’re an advanced user, you can do things with the complex data.
SOUTHCOM: “Being able to identify accesses and ordering Most users just need simple grayscale images.
specific images at the constraints we require streamlines the How much have project ordering code, processing hardware
current process by days. It puts the collection management pro- and the cloud improved in the near decade since iView was com-
cess in the combatant commands’ hands, versus hoping someone pleted? What are military users doing now to order and access
else understands your needs and will collect the right location at commercial SAR imagery? If SAR is not easy and fast, it loses much
the right time.” of its value.
I
’m an engineer. I start with thinking of the technical solution. We’re right on the cusp of optical intersatellite links. When those
I will preface this by saying there are two ways to consume mesh networks get realized in space, the imagery can go from the
commercial SAR. One would be to get the imagery and then point of collection to the end user at the speed of light. Optical
exploit that as a military unit. The other way would be to get satellite links and direct downlinks will get imagery to the warf-
information derived from commercial SAR, which at NGA ighter faster and more efficiently. Then, the combatant command
we’ve been calling radar commercial analytic services. operations centers will have instant access to the imagery when it’s
A lot of units still want to consume imagery. Today, it’s a hub- collected. They can have battlefield situational awareness. Imagery
and-spoke model. Government procurement and functional man- from companies can be aggregate to achieve a less than one-hour
agers gather all the imagery, put it in a central library and allow revisit rate, and that imagery can then be shared with coalition
users to pull from that library. It’s not bad, but it’s also too slow for partners.
the warfighter because we introduce all these communication delays. That would be how I would technically do the imagery. There’s
At NGA, we put in place some faster processes for delivering SAR probably an acquisition solution that is a marketplace model that
imagery to Ukraine. We allowed the field units to pull directly from would allow combatant commands to pre-buy capacity. If they pre-
company web portals on the internet. Once the imagery was available buy it for the warfighter, all of this direct tasking and direct down-
from the company, it was instantly available to the field unit. link works perfectly.
S
AR is vital to the conduct of full spectrum of military op- support solving the problem.
erations, from tactical to strategic. As an infantryman, I Perhaps the solution is something like this: I’ll establish a base-
learned the importance of understanding and leveraging line by using Planet to get lower-resolution images daily so that I
the terrain, weather and light conditions. SAR provides can develop an understanding of what happens there. (Th is might
that day, night and most-weather assured imaging. Re- also be accomplished by high- to medium-altitude drones, if they
member that about 70% of the world’s landmass is com- are available and have access.) Then, because it’s an area with a lot
pletely or partially covered by clouds at any given time, and 50% of of clouds or because they tend to do things at night, I’m going to use
the globe is in darkness. To me, electro-optical imagery was for SAR from ICEYE to reveal more about the facility. Then, I’ll use the
planning, and SAR imagery was for operations. unique capabilities of the classified overhead systems to round out
And we ought not be arguing about whether it’s the NRO or the the source data for the analyst.
Space Force or whomever acquiring the commercial data. Th is is a When I oversaw this process, there were more requests than ca-
ridiculous ongoing bureaucratic squabble that is taking away pre- pacity. Now, we have gone increasingly from being data starved to
cious time, energy and resources from being focused on how to most being data rich. A related consideration is the availability and means
efficiently and effectively get users — from the foxhole to the White of dissemination. The very best data, information and intelligence
House — the data, information and intelligence they need to ac- delivered too late is often worthless. From an overarching perspective,
complish their respective missions. matching resources available to the requirements used to be rather
When I led the Source Operations Group at NGA, our collection intensively manual. With machine learning supporting artificial in-
managers had been given the new title “source strategists.” The idea telligence, it’s become increasingly automated and more efficient.
was that their overarching expertise in the remote sensing platforms All that said, this largely ought to be transparent to a military
and systems would complement the specific regional and/or func- commander. Their intelligence staff translates their operational
tional expertise of an analyst. Source strategists assemble the best needs into intelligence requirements. These requirements are an-
mix from the broad array of assets available to solve intelligence alyzed and parsed and move quickly up to NGA, the National Se-
problems, thinking through the lens of spatial, temporal and spec- curity Agency, the Defense Intelligence Agency and others.
tral diversity. The absolute least efficient and effective way to approach Newer commercial technologies like onboard processing, data
collection is for an analyst to say, “I want a picture from this satellite centers and laser crosslinks in space will help shrink timelines. For
at this time.” The analyst is best served by simply registering a re- instance, does the commander even need the picture or just the answer
quirement: “I’m trying to figure out something about this facility in to their question? If the Army has identified a target for a hypersonic
this country. How should I go about getting the imagery I need?” missile, before they hit fire, they may simply need to know if the target
The source strategist asks questions like, “What type of activity is still there. That image can be captured from space, crosslinked,
would you expect there? Do activities occur during the day or during processed and analyzed in space. The only thing that needs to come
the night? What things come there? What things leave from there? down is the answer, “Yes.” Then, they hit fire. An image is collected
Are there any unique pieces of equipment there?” With that context, shortly afterward for battle damage assessment analysis. That deter-
the source strategist assembles the right tools to gather the data to mines whether the strike had its desired effect or if a re-strike is required.
T
he internet is the simplest way to get that data to the field,
even in a deployed fashion. Basically, our system would get
tasked, and data would get processed and put into the cloud.
Then, users could access it. For military users, it’s a question
of latency. Internet access will have some latency associat-
ed with it because it has to get to the internet and then back
to the user.
“Users will always
What if you need it faster? Does it make sense to have the data
transferred through space without ever touching the commercial
cloud? That is defi nitely the lowest latency, from a direct-to-user
want to drive to
standpoint. A lot of people are very eager to jump to that concept of
operations, but that requires some integration upfront with those
users to make sure that they have the ability to task the spacecraft
low latency.”
and to get the data back. That is something we are working on. There
are defi nitely applications where that is desirable. It can provide
things like over-the-horizon remote sensing for a single asset like a
carrier that wants to task a satellite and know when the data will
come back.
I think we should use it when it’s appropriate. If you want to send
data to a military weapon system that’s in fl ight, that’s probably the dozens. As that increases to hundreds of commercial satellites, it
only thing that makes sense. But if you’re trying to send data to an starts to get more interesting. You can imagine a case where any
intelligence cell at the center, you may not need that. I want to make user can task any spacecraft and get the data back directly without
sure that we’re not overlooking the fact that the internet is a ubiq- even touching the internet. It’s a little hard to envision today, but it
uitous and powerful thing that offers a lot of opportunities to get creates new mission applications as you look to the future.
data where it needs to go. People ask, “Why would we need that? Where’s the commercial
The best way to get data has a lot to do with the mission that use case that overlaps with that?” Higher-speed data access and im-
you’re trying to accomplish. What is the latency of the need for that provement in data is always desired by commercial and government
data? Users will always want to drive to low latency. But the difference users. Think of it like GPS. GPS was good enough before we released
between seconds and minutes makes a huge impact in terms of it down to the meter or centimeter level. Now, look at all these com-
which architecture you can use. mercial applications. It may not be immediately apparent today why
It doesn’t necessarily make a ton of sense today to give users you would want direct tasking to a SAR constellation and direct data
direct access to spacecraft when you have a small number of assets downlink. There are probably unforeseen advantages in both the
across the commercial constellations. It’s in the low number of commercial market space and the military market space.
IN THEIR WORDS
Members of the 2023 ASCEND
Guiding Coalition and other
industry leaders recently
shared their views on the
challenges and opportunities
Kara Cunzeman Joe Landon
as we leap toward a $1 trillion Lead Futurist for Strategic Foresight, CEO, Crescent Space;
space economy. Hear more The Aerospace Corporation;
ASCEND Guiding Coalition
ASCEND Guiding Coalition
A lot of the work and a lot of the missions that
from these luminaries in their We are building the foundation for infrastructure have gone to space historically have been
E X PA N D T H E
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DATE MEETING LOCATION DEADLINE
2023
18 Sep–25 Oct Spacecraft Design, Development, and Operations Course ONLINE (learning.aiaa.org)
18–28 Sep Aircraft Reliability & Reliability Centered Maintenance Course ONLINE (learning.aiaa.org)
19 Sep–12 Oct Fundamentals of High Speed Air-Breathing and Space Propulsion Course ONLINE (learning.aiaa.org)
21–22 Sep AIAA Rocky Mountain Section Meet the Employers & Annual Technical Symposium 2023 Fort Collins, CO (www.aiaa-rm.org/)
26 Sep–19 Oct Practical Approach to Flight Dynamics and Control of Aircraft, Missiles, and Hypersonic Vehicles Course ONLINE (learning.aiaa.org)
2–18 Oct Overview of Python for Engineering Programming Course ONLINE (learning.aiaa.org)
10–13 Oct Applied Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) Course ONLINE (learning.aiaa.org)
10–26 Oct Metal Additive Manufacturing for Aerospace Applications Course ONLINE (learning.aiaa.org)
17 Oct–16 Nov Wind Tunnel Testing for Aircraft Development Course ONLINE (learning.aiaa.org)
24 Oct–2 Nov Technical Writing Essentials for Engineers Course ONLINE (learning.aiaa.org)
ABSTRACT
DATE MEETING LOCATION DEADLINE
2023
30 Oct–15 Nov Hypersonic Applications: Physical Models for Interdisciplinary Simulation Course ONLINE (learning.aiaa.org)
31 Oct–16 Nov Space Architecture: Designing an Orbital Habitation System Course ONLINE (learning.aiaa.org)
7–16 Nov Business Development for Aerospace Professionals Course ONLINE (learning.aiaa.org)
17–18 Nov AIAA Young Professionals, Students, and Educators (YPSE) Conference Laurel, MD (www.aiaaypse.com)
27–28 Nov AIAA Region VII Student Conference Canberra, Australia, & Online 7 Sep 23
Aircraft and Rotorcraft System Identification Engineering Methods for Piloted and UAV
4–7 Dec ONLINE (learning.aiaa.org)
Applications with Hands-on Training Using CIFER® Course
2024
6–7 Jan 2nd AIAA High-Fidelity CFD Verification Workshop Orlando, FL (aiaa.org/scitech)
6–7 Jan Propeller Aerodynamics for Advanced Air Mobility Course Orlando, FL (aiaa.org/scitech)
6–7 Jan Spacecraft Design, Development, and Operations Course Orlando, FL (aiaa.org/scitech)
9–13 Sep* 34th Congress of the International Council of the Aeronautical Sciences Florence, Italy (icas2024.com)
*Meetings cosponsored by AIAA. Cosponsorship forms can be found at AIAA Continuing Education offerings
aiaa.org/events-learning/exhibit-sponsorship/co-sponsorship-opportunities.
N early 3,000 participants, including 765 students, from 41 countries attended the
2023 AIAA AVIATION Forum, 12–16 June, San Diego. Throughout the week, leaders
from industry, academia, and government examined the theme, Revolutionary Leaps
Toward a New Age of Aviation, and discussed the challenges facing the aviation industry
and how we can work to reset expectations, redefine roles, and accelerate change. The
technical program contained over 1,000 technical presentations.
E ach year, AIAA distributes over $100,000 in scholarships and graduate awards to undergraduate
and graduate students studying aerospace engineering at accredited colleges and universities
throughout the United States and overseas. In 2023, AIAA scholarship and graduate award winners
came from all corners of the aerospace industry and are studying a variety of topics from digital
avionics to hypersonics. Below we profi le this year’s 24 scholarship and graduate award winners
who are shaping the future of aerospace.
2023 AIAA Graduate Collaborating with Dr. Venkat Orville and Wilbur Wright Graduate Award more trust in AI, making for effective
Narayanaswamy, he played a key role human-machine systems. Long term,
Award Winners in establishing a hypersonic tunnel on Sandro Salgueiro her plans are to work in explainable
Dr. Hassan A. Hassan Graduate Award NC State’s campus and co-authored a Massachusetts Institute of Technology AI and policy to regulate AI so that
in Aerospace Engineering paper on pressure-sensitive paint in Amount of Award: $5,000 it works in the human user’s best
aerospace applications. When not interest in any engineering field.
Sandro is a Ph.D.
Rutledge Fogel conquering academic pursuits, you
candidate at MIT
North Carolina State University can find Shaan engaging in video The Orville and Wilbur Wright
specializing in air
Amount of Award: $6,000 games or scaling heights through Graduate Award will have a positive
transportation sys-
rock climbing adventures with his impact on me because I will have ade-
Rutledge is tems. His doctoral
friends. A future trailblazer with a zest quate funding to continue my Ph.D.
currently enrolled research focuses
for life! studies. In addition, this award
as a master’s on the design of
reinforces my goal that explainable AI
student in the Winning this award was quite a aircraft navigation routes while con-
systems be used to have an important
aerospace shock for me, but I am glad to receive sidering the risk of midair collisions
impact in the field of aerospace
engineering it and put it to use in furthering the introduced by rare abnormal aircraft
engineering.
program at North field of aerospace! behavior. By seeking to develop a
Carolina State University. He recently better understanding of the collision
graduated cum laude with his risk between aircraft routes, Sandro’s Guidance, Navigation and Control
bachelor of science in aerospace Neil Armstrong Graduate Award research aims to enable more effi- Graduate Award
engineering from the institution. He Michaela Hemming cient and sustainable operations in
intends to begin a master’s thesis the National Airspace System. Sandro Animesh Shastry
University of Alabama in Huntsville University of Maryland, College Park
while continuing to perform research Amount of Award: $5,000 is a multi-engine rated commercial
for the Thermal Energy Research and pilot with industry experience in con- Amount of Award: $3,500
Management Lab at North Carolina Michaela is an ceptual aircraft design and flight deck Animesh is a Ph.D.
State University. He also plans to be a Aerospace design. He has also contributed to the student in the De-
graduate assistant for the aerial Engineering Ph.D. design of multiple instrument flight partment of Aero-
robotics club. Rutledge’s career and Candidate at the procedures currently in use at Boston space Engineering
professional goals are to be an University of Logan Airport. Sandro’s career goals at the University
aircraft or propulsion system designer Alabama in are to contribute to the development of Maryland. He is
for a commercial and defense Huntsville under the of future air traffic control technolo- majoring in flight
aerospace company. He also intends advisement of Dr. Gabe Xu. Her gies, aircraft navigation systems, and dynamics and control and minoring
to continue learning about control dissertation research involves flight deck architectures. in Rotorcraft. He is passionate about
systems through his master’s degree backflow and recovery experiments aerial robotics. His current research
and would also aspire to be a control on multi-phase propellant injectors Having your work recognized is focuses on developing a framework
systems engineer and designer. for use in rotating detonation rocket always a special occasion, but even for concurrent search and tracking of
engine (RDREs). Her work is funded more so when the recognition carries multiple moving ground targets using
I hope to be a great engineer and a through the NASA Space Technology the names of the Wright Brothers. a swarm of UAVs. Previously he has
good education will place me on the Graduate Research Opportunities Having always admired the spirit of worked on developing a self-calibra-
path to accomplishing that goal. This (NSTGRO) grant through which she innovation that they impart on the tion framework for UAVs operating
award will decrease the financial load also has the opportunity to support aviation industry to this day, I feel in unsteady wind and implementing
caused by attending school and allow RDRE research at Marshall Space incredibly honored and encouraged to it on an embedded platform that he
me more free time and resources that Flight Center. be receiving this award. designed himself. He is skilled in im-
I will spend on my studies, research, After graduation, Michaela hopes plementing advanced robotics algo-
and activities which will shape me to continue research and develop- rithms and building fully autonomous
into a great engineer. ment of advanced propulsion systems Lynn Pickering robots. He aspires to make a mark in
either through government research University of Cincinnati the scientific community and pursue
labs or private industry. She also has Amount of Award: $5,000 research-oriented work in the field of
Shaan Stephen an interest in following the policy Guidance, Navigation, and Control.
Lynn is a UC Ph.D.
North Carolina State University behind dispersal of research funding. candidate in Aero-
Amount of Award: $6,000 Her ideal job would be one that This scholarship will help me
space Engineering
Shaan is a dynamic allows her to influence the direction achieve my educational and career
at the University
young mind ready of space propulsion research. goals. It will relieve some financial
of Cincinnati. Her
to embark on his burden, allowing me to focus on
research involves
graduate school With this award, I will be able to learning and advancing my
using Fuzzy Logic as
journey at NC State perform more experiments that take professional training. It will help me
an artificial intelligence (AI) method
University. Having the fundamental knowledge I’ve accelerate my goals and become a
that provides the transparency and
earned his gained and apply it to systems of successful professional in the field of
explainability to truly advance AI.
aerospace engineering degree with interest for the research community. It Guidance, Navigation, and Control.
Explainability in AI (XAI) is essential
the class of 2023, he’s set to pursue will also help expand the reach of to enhance partnerships with humans
his passion for aerospace by research by allowing me to attend and ensure that AI is being utilized in
continuing his studies. During his more conferences I wouldn’t a fair and ethical manner. Her short-
undergrad years, Shaan actively otherwise have the funds to attend. term professional goals are to work
contributed to the High-Powered toward XAI systems in the aerospace
Rocketry club, serving as the recovery field that enable humans to place
lead for his senior design project.
David and Catherine Thompson Space is dedicated to shaping the future of learning the manufacturing and instal- Ellis F. Hitt Digital Avionics Scholarship
Technology Scholarship propulsion and combustion in the lation processes behind much of the
aerospace industry. sensor and communication Ethan Traub
Noah McAllister equipment in air ambulance Georgia Institute of Technology
Rutgers University This scholarship will allow me to helicopters. Going forward, he hopes Amount of Scholarship: $3,000
Amount of Scholarship: $10,000 continue on my academic path, while to try his hand at rockets and is
Noah is a senior interested in working with any of the Ethan is a 3rd year
allowing me to engage in social and undergraduate
studying Aerospace technical activities that are not numerous new rocket startup
Engineering with a companies. The fast pace and majoring in
financially motivated. I will continue Aerospace
minor in math at learning and working as an innovative environment these
Rutgers University. companies cultivate is an especially Engineering with a
undergraduate researcher and minor in Computa-
He currently serves present my contributions during one exciting prospect for the young
as the AIAA Rutgers engineer. He hopes to keep that tional Data Analysis
of the upcoming AIAA conferences at Georgia Institute of Technology. As
Student Branch Chair and the Chief before my Ph.D. energy in his later career and
Engineer of RU Airborne, the AIAA continue to strive toward better and an undergraduate researcher in
Design/Build/Fly competition team, Georgia Tech’s Space Systems Design
better spaceflight. Laboratory (SSDL), Ethan is
having previously served as the
Propulsion Lead. During the school Wernher von Braun Scholarship developing propulsion systems for
This scholarship will allow me to focus small satellite swarms. Ethan also
year, Noah researches thin-film on learning this year. While I had
coatings manufactured by self-limit- Ashish Cavale plans on earning his master’s degree
Georgia Institute of Technology planned on researching for pay to from Georgia Tech while continuing
ing electrospray deposition in the help cover my expenses, this will take
Hybrid Micro/Nanomanufacturing Amount of Scholarship: $5,000 research in SSDL. Following
some of the stress out of paying for graduation, Ethan intends on pursuing
Lab; his senior thesis is on aeroelastic Ashish is an college and allow me to focus
design optimization in collaboration a career as a propulsion test
aerospace primarily on learning and researching
with the Aerospace Systems engineer.
engineering what I find most interesting.
Directorate of the Air Force Research undergraduate
Lab (AFRL). He has previously I am continuously grateful for AIAA
student at the
interned at AFRL, and interned this and the opportunities and support it
Georgia Institute of Dr. Amy R. Pritchett Digital
summer at Lockheed Martin Space on provides me. This scholarship will
Technology. He has Avionics Scholarship
the NASA Dragonfly mission. assist me in pursuing my career in
a strong interest in astrodynamics and
Following graduation, Noah plans to aerospace.
propulsion systems. He actively Vikas Patel
pursue a Ph.D. studying structural engages in research projects, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University –
design optimization and fluid-struc- including various CubeSat propulsion Daytona Beach
ture interaction. efforts in the Glenn Lightsey Research Amount of Scholarship: $3,000 Cary Spitzer Digital Avionics Scholarship
Group at the Space Systems Design
The David and Catherine Thompson Laboratory. Through internships at Vikas is a junior in Hampton Wohlford
Space Technology Scholarship will companies like Analytical Graphics Aerospace Virginia Military Institute
help me continue my educational path Inc., Northrop Grumman, Blue Origin, Engineering at Amount of Scholarship: $3,000
at Rutgers. I am grateful to AIAA for and Ball Aerospace, he has gained Embry-Riddle
Aeronautical Hampton is a
this scholarship, as well as the valuable hands-on experience in the
University. For the military brat. His
opportunities AIAA has provided. aerospace industry. Ashish’s career
past two years, he childhood list of
aspirations revolve around travels and homes
contributing to space exploration and has been a part of ERAU’s successful
Design/Build/Fly team. At the 2023 includes North
Vicki and George Muellner Scholarship making a positive impact in the field. Carolina, Republic
Ultimately, Ashish dreams of AIAA DBF competition, he served as
for Aerospace Engineering of Korea, Hawaii,
becoming a professor and researcher the team’s Lead Flight Test Engineer,
conducting many tests throughout the Japan, Florida, and Virginia. In high
Nikolai Baranov to inspire and mentor future
year and guiding the pilot through the school, he was recognized for
Purdue University generations of aerospace enthusiasts. academics, athletics, and leadership
Amount of Scholarship: $5,000 competition flights. In addition, he
has recently been involved with his in sports. In his first year as a VMI
Nikolai is an university’s Space Technologies Lab, Navy ROTC Midshipman, Hampton
This scholarship brings me closer to was awarded the National Society of
aerospace where he is currently helping the
my goals of continuing my education. the Sons of the American Revolution
engineering student team send a university camera system
With its support, I can pursue a Ph.D. Silver ROTC Medal. He participated in
with a strong to record the first commercial
and work toward becoming a the summer 2023 Engineering Study
interest in spacewalk aboard the Polaris Dawn
professor. It provides a valuable boost Abroad in Rome, Italy, at John Cabot
propulsion and mission. He hopes to continue
on my path to making a meaningful University and is now a rising
hydrogen conducting research at the Lab and
impact in space exploration and sophomore and varsity swimmer at
combustion. During high school, he continue studying GNC in graduate
research. the Virginia Military Institute.
gained experience with turbomachin- school, with an eventual career in the
ery while balancing rotors to fund aerospace industry. Hampton is a double major in both
their college education. Now, his Mechanical Engineering and Physics
focus lies in exploring the possibilities Dr. James Rankin Digital Avionics and hopes to earn a commission in
of hydrogen propulsion with a keen Scholarship the Navy upon graduation and serve
eye on innovation and sustainability. as a Naval Aviator.
Quintan Ajluni
Nikolai values diverse hobbies and
Purdue University This scholarship reaches far beyond
takes a systematic approach to their
Amount of Scholarship: $3,000 my life alone. I have three older
endeavors, aspiring to make a
As an Aeronautical siblings, all of us born within four
significant impact in their field both as
and Astronautical years. We are trying to pay for college
a professional and a person. His
Engineering for all four of us. Effectively, this
ultimate career goal is to pursue a
Undergrad at scholarship is not just for me; it is a
research-oriented path and obtain a
Purdue University, contribution to the college degrees of
Ph.D. in aerospace engineering,
Quintan loves all four children and is a blessing for
where he aims to contribute
working on things my entire family.
groundbreaking advancements.
that fly. This past summer he had a
Emphasizing the importance of
great internship with Metro Aviation,
continuous self-improvement, Nikolai
where he worked in the Avionics shop
Jacob VerMeer
career would involve pushing the
aviation industry toward more
AIAA Supports the
University of Colorado Boulder
Amount of Scholarship: $500
Jacob is an
sustainable design to help both
society and the industry meet the
threat of anthropogenic climate
Spaceport America
undergraduate
student studying
change. Post-retirement, he would
like to become a high school math
or physics teacher to guide and
Cup
Aerospace AIAA staff attended the 2023
Engineering inspire the next generation of engi-
neers and public leaders. Spaceport America Cup – Inter-
Sciences at the
University of collegiate Rocket Engineering
Colorado Boulder. His career Receiving this scholarship will Competition, held 19–23 June,
aspiration is to find a position that significantly lessen mine and my
family’s financial burden going into
in Truth or Consequences, NM.
blends his passion in aircraft
design with his newfound interest my final undergraduate year. I plan The Spaceport America Cup is
in public policy. This passion for to use this money to help pay for an Intercollegiate Rocket Engi-
public policy was ignited during his textbooks and any other school AIAA Executive Director Dan neering Competition hosted by
participation in the Colorado supplies I need to ace my classes Dumbacher speaks with Alice
Science and Engineering Policy this semester and take one more Spaceport America and directed
Carruth and the T-Minus Space
Fellowship this past summer. To step toward finishing my degree. Podcast about the importance of by the Experimental Sounding
engagement with collegiate-level Rocket Association (ESRA). It
engineering competitions. comprises 5,913 students repre-
senting 158 total teams, includ-
ing 78 international teams representing 24 countries and 80 domes-
tic teams from around the United States.
Applications for the 2024 scholarships and grad- Students gathered over the course of five days for a series of ac-
uate awards are being accepted from 1 October tivities, including a conference day in Las Cruces, NM, to present
to 31 January. Please visit the AIAA Foundation’s their rocket designs to judges and peers. Student teams traveled to
Scholarship and Graduate Awards website the launch site located at Spaceport America for a chance to launch
(aiaa.org/scholarships) for more information. their rocket in ideal conditions.
While on-site, AIAA Executive Director Dan Dumbacher and
University Programs Manager Michael Lagana engaged with other
corporate sponsors and spoke to students from universities around
the world about the benefits of membership, the rich career advance-
ment resources available to students, and how AIAA can be more
Citations Awarded
T he Regional Engagement Activities Division (READ) awarded
two Special Service Citations this summer to volunteer lead-
Educators: Apply for an
ers who have gone above and beyond in serving AIAA. AIAA Classroom Grant
Duha Bader,
University of California
Davis Graduate I f you are a K-12 classroom educator, don’t miss the opportunity to
receive up to $500 for your STEM programs. The AIAA Foundation
is working to bridge the gap in funding and support for programs
In recognition of exceptional
leadership in the planning and with an emphasis on aerospace. The quick and easy application
execution of the 2023 AIAA Region process is open through 30 September. For details on eligibility and
VI Student Conference at UC Davis. to apply, go to: www.aiaa.org/classroomgrants.
Whether you have past experience with grants or none at all, this
is a great opportunity! You can also watch the recording of this recent
webinar to get first-hand advice directly from recipients of last year’s
Sid Gunasekaran, grants and judges: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KpoSv_3xAao.
University of Dayton
For outstanding service to AIAA “Th e materials purchased with your funds will allow me to create
and the University of Dayton lessons that require creativity, inquiry skills, critical analysis, team-
Student Branch in the organization work, and collaboration. Not only will these lessons allow me to teach
of the 2023 AIAA Region III our digital literacy standards, they will also allow me to challenge
Student Conference. students to use problem-solving skills. The need for creative problem
solving in our schools is stronger than ever.”
-Ms. Farnum, 2nd grade educator from New York
aiaa.org/SpeasAward
Ethan Och
FACULTY POSITION
The Department of Aerospace Engineering at the University of Maryland (www.aero.umd.edu) invites applications for one
or more full-time, tenure-track assistant professor position(s) in space exploration. Candidates from groups traditionally
underrepresented in this field are strongly encouraged to apply. Priority (for one of the positions) will be given to applicants
who will utilize the unique experimental capabilities afforded by UMD’s Neutral Buoyancy Research Facility and have
expertise in one or more of the following areas (in no specific order): (1) space robotics; (2) space human factors, life
support, and bioastronautics; (3) space systems, including flight hardware development (including CubeSats) and systems
analysis; and (4) spacecraft instrumentation and computing. Individuals who can connect to these areas or who are working
at the boundaries of these areas are also encouraged to apply. Applicants will be expected to develop a strong research
program related to space exploration and complementary to existing research capabilities. Additionally, successful
applicants will be expected to contribute to the graduate and undergraduate course offerings in this area.
Applicants should possess a Ph.D. degree in aerospace engineering or a closely-related field by the start date of employment.
Successful candidates should be effective communicators and have an ability and interest in working with diverse student
populations having a variety of backgrounds, learning styles, and skill levels.
For best consideration, applications should be received by November 17th, 2023, but the position will remain open until
filled. Based upon our commitment to achieving excellence through diversity and inclusion, those who have experience
engaging with a range of faculty, staff, and students and contributing to a climate of inclusivity are encouraged to discuss
their perspectives on these subjects in their application materials. The review of applications will begin as they are received
and continue until the positions are filled.
applied helper — and perhaps a required one — for large-scale comprehensive understanding of what we wish to predict. Without
projects or tasks that must be undertaken frequently. a broad range of data that represents the possibility space of what
In terms of predictive analyses, AI is, in part, an attempt to we’re interested in, the predictions about tomorrow will be skewed
accelerate the achievement of net-zero surprisal. However, an and incomplete, unable to capture the nuances and complexities
important caveat to all this is that at best, AI assumes that tomor- of the real world.
row will resemble today, drawing conclusions based on patterns As a result of our incomplete understanding of the interdepen-
and correlations observed in the past. This is referred to as training dencies and causal relationships within reality, the training data
data, where the AI is taught what “truth” is and how it manifests. available for AI today is almost always incomplete. Th is incom-
AI assumes the training data is complete, which in this context pleteness leads to inaccurate predictions, prescriptions or decisions,
means that the data encompasses all the necessary information to as the AI model lacks vital information required to capture the true
describe what we’re interested in predicting. This training data is essence of what we want to predict.
flawed when the model of today is limited, biased and incomplete, These limitations should serve as a reminder that this technol-
because it fails to sufficiently capture the full complexity and di- ogy is a tool, not an omniscient entity. AI is only as good as the data
versity of reality. it receives and the assumptions made. Garbage in, garbage out, as
To consistently and confidently predict accurately and precise- they say. It is essential to approach implementation of AI with a
ly, AI software needs a robust and diverse set of training data. critical mindset and to understand the inherent biases and limita-
Multiple models of possible todays are required to form a tions that can influence its predictions.
LOOKING BACK
COMPILED BY FRANK H. WINTER and ROBERT VAN DER LINDEN
1923
Rittenhouse averages 285.47 kph 1948, p. 342. Earth’s gravity field. Five life science
(177.38 mph), and Lt. Rutledge Irvine experiments are to investigate the
Sept. 15 Maj. Richard Johnson
places second with 279.16 kph (173.46 effects of weightlessness on human
of the U.S. Air Force Air Materiel
Sept. 4 The U.S. Navy airship ZR-1 mph). This is the first time the U.S. cells important in protecting against
Command Flight Test Division sets a
makes its first trial flight, traveling the participates in a Schneider Cup race. infections. NASA Release 73-178.
world speed record of 1,079.839 kph
nearly 160 kilometers from Lakehurst NASA, Aeronautics and Astronautics,
(670.981 mph) in a North American Sept. 12 A prototype of the U.S.
Naval Air Station in New Jersey 1915-1960, p. 17; Aviation, Oct. 8, 1923, 4 Navy’s F-14B Tomcat swing-
F-86A Sabre over Muroc Dry Lake,
to New York City. Later renamed p. 436. wing supersonic aircraft makes its
California. Johnson makes four
Shenandoah, it is the first rigid airship first flight test from the Grumman
passes between 75 and 125 feet in
1948
designed and built in the U.S., as well Aircraft Corp. plant in Calverton, New
altitude. Aviation Week, Sept. 27,
as the first to use inert helium as its York. The aircraft reaches Mach 0.8
1948, p. 15.
lifting gas rather than combustible during the 67-minute flight. Aviation
hydrogen. The ZR-1 circles over Sept. 1 Saab chief test pilot Robert Sept. 18 Convair test pilot Ellis
3 Week, Sept. 17, 1973, p. 23.
New York escorted by a squadron of Moore completes the inaugural flight “Sam” Shannon completes the
aircraft, with thousands of spectators first flight of the turbojet-propelled Sept. 13 The NASA 427, an
of the SAAB-29 fighter prototype at
watching. Flight, Sept. 13, 1923, p. Convair XF-92A research plane, an instrumented Douglas C-54
Linkoping, Sweden. The aircraft is
experimental delta-wing design that Skymaster, is flown to the German Air
544; Aviation, Sept. 10, 1923, p. 301, powered by a single De Havilland
leads to the future Convair F-102, Force base in Leck, West Germany,
311. Ghost turbojet during the 30-minute
F-106, B-58 and F2Y aircraft. The to participate in the Joint North Sea
flight. The design later becomes the
Sept. 5 U.S. Army Air Service Wave Project. This is the second
1 mainstay of Swedish Air Force fighter, 18-minute flight takes place at Muroc
Martin NBS-1 bombers sink in a series of studies conducted
attack and reconnaissance units. Bo Dry Lake, California. Convair report
the decommissioned USS Virginia by the West German Hydrographic
Widfeldt, The SAAB J-29, p. 6; The ZM-7002-006; Convair press release
and the USS New Jersey battleships Institute of Hamburg. Daily research
Aeroplane, Sept. 17, 1948, p. 372. No. 67.
off Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, flights are conducted Sept. 17-30 to
in a large-scale aerial bombing Sept. 5 A four-engine Martin Sept. 29 Chance Vought chief test study surface waves and prevailing
exercise. Observed by Army Gen. JRM-2 seaplane transport, the pilot Robert Baker completes the wind relationships. The C-54 carries
John Pershing and other Army Caroline Mars, flies from the Naval first test flight of a XF7U-1 Cutlass an S-band radiometer and laser
and Navy officers, the planes drop Air Test Center in Patuxent River, fighter prototype at the Naval Air Test profilometer from NASA’s Langley
multiple bombs weighing up to 900 Maryland, to the National Air Show Center in Patuxent, Maryland. The Research Center in Virginia, among
kilograms, the largest the Martin in Cleveland. The aircraft carries tailless aircraft is propelled by two other equipment. NASA, Wallops
twin-engine design can carry. NASA, 30,972 kilograms (68,282 pounds) of Westinghouse J34-WE-32 engines, Flight Facility Release 73-10.
Aeronautics and Astronautics, 1915- cargo, the heaviest payload carried and its wings sweep back at 38
Sept. 13-Oct. 17 NASA’s Ames
1960, p. 17; Aviation, Sept. 10, 1923, by an aircraft to date. U.S. Naval degrees. Gordon Swanborough and
Research Center in California
pp. 330-334. Aviation 1910-1970, p. 167; NASA, Peter Bowers, U.S. Navy Aircraft
conducts a five-week experiment
Aeronautics and Astronautics, 1915- Since 1911, p. 385; Aviation Week,
Sept. 8 After repeated attempts to to determine the effects of
1960, p. 60. Sept. 27, 1948, p. 11.
recapture the world altitude record weightlessness and return to Earth
1973
from the U.S., French aviator Joseph Sept. 6 A De Havilland DH108 gravity on women. A dozen U.S. Air
Sadi-Lecointe establishes a new 2 Swallow research aircraft Force nurses volunteer to participate
mark at Villacoublay, near Paris. becomes the first British-designed in the study, which consists of
Lecointe’s altitude record of 35,178 aircraft to exceed the speed of sound simulating the weightlessness and
Sept. 6 NASA announces the 18
feet is set in the same aircraft used while in a dive from 40,000 feet to g-forces encountered during space
experiments chosen for the July
for previous attempts: a special 25,000 feet over the Farnborough- shuttle flights. This is a follow-on
1975 joint U.S.-Soviet Union Apollo-
Nieuport biplane equipped with a Windsor area. De Havilland test pilot to 1972 experiments conducted
Soyuz Test Project. The experiments with men. Ames Research Center
Hispano-Suiza engine and Lamblin John Derry later receives the Royal
are selected from 145 proposals Release 73-107.
radiators. The previous world’s Aeronautical Club’s Gold Medal for
by scientists in and outside the
altitude record was set in 1921 by the flight. The Aeroplane, Sept. 17, Sept. 14 University of Texas
United States. Four astronomy and
U.S. Air Service Lt. John Macready, 1948, p. 344. physicists A.A. Jackson IV and
space physics experiments are
who reached an altitude of 34,509 Michael Ryan Jr. propose in a Nature
Sept. 6 The Avro Tudor Mk. 8, the to search for sources of extreme
feet at McCook Field in Dayton, Ohio. article that a meteorite impact was
first civil transport designed to fly ultraviolet radiation in the night sky,
Aviation, Sept. 24, 1923, p. 364. not responsible for leveling forests
with four jet engines, completes map celestial X-ray emissions, and
Sept. 28 U.S. Navy pilots take first and measure intensity and distribution of across a wide region of Siberia
its first test flight from Woodford,
helium-florescent radiation. Six space in 1908. Instead, the 12-magaton
second places in the Schneider Cup England, to Boscombe Down. Each
explosion, often referred to as the
international seaplane races at Cowes, wing has a single engine nacelle application processing experiments
Tunguska event, was the result
England, establishing a new world containing two Rolls-Royce Nene are to study properties and
of a black hole plunging into the
record for seaplanes with a speed of turbojets with individual tailpipes, processes in microgravity via a small
earth. This theory is later disproven.
169.89 mph for 200 km. Flying Curtiss similar to the configuration on the multiple-purpose electric furnace.
Nature, Sept. 14, 1973, pp. 88-89.
CR-3 biplanes powered by Curtiss D-12 North American B-45 Tornado Two experiments are to study
engines, first-place winner Lt. David bomber. The Aeroplane, Sept. 10, electrophoresis and the structure of Sept. 14-23 The Brazilian Ministry
4 5
of Aeronautics sponsors the first New York Times, Sept. 21, 1973, pp. the two-day Soyuz 12 test flight to last aircraft is built in 2001. Armed
major international aerospace 1, 73. verify the updated spacecraft design Forces Journal, September 1973,
exhibit in Latin America. Held in Saõ and obtain spectrographs of natural p. 24; “World Airliners,” Flight
Sept. 25 The crew of Skylab 3,
Paulo, the exhibit comprises various 5 the second group of astronauts to
formations of Earth’s surface. This is International, Aug. 28, 2001.
products made by 250 companies the first Soviet crewed spaceflight
1998
visit the first U.S. space station, splashes
from 11 nations. Aircraft on display since the 1971 Soyuz 11 mission, in
down in their command module 370
include the British Hawker Siddeley kilometers southwest of San Diego. which the capsule depressurized
Harrier vertical/short takeoff and During their 59 days aboard Skylab, during landing and the three
landing fighter, the Fokker F28 cosmonauts were found dead upon Sept. 8 Five Iridium satellites are
commander Alan Bean, pilot Jack
twin-jet transport, the Israeli Aircraft their return to Earth. On Sept. 29, launched from Vandenburg Air Force
Lousma and science pilot Owen Garriott
Industries Arava cargo transport, an the Soyuz 12 capsule makes a soft Base in California by a Boeing Delta
continued the comprehensive medical
Airbus A300B and a Canadair CL-215 landing 400 kilometers southwest of II to replace malfunctioning satellites
research program begun during the
amphibian, among others. Aviation Karaganda in the Kazakkstan Steppe, in the Iridium telecommunications
Skylab 2 mission. Skylab 3’s biological
Week, Sept. 17, 1973, p. 954. experiments also addressed the effects and the crew is recovered. New York network. NASA, Astronautics and
of microgravity on mice, fruit flies, single Times, Sept. 30, 1973, p. 1. Aeronautics: a Chronology, 1996-
Sept. 21 A Concorde departs
cells and cell culture media. Additional 2000, p. 163.
Venezuela with 32 aviation officials Also in September Hawker
and journalists and lands at Dallas/ experiments crafted by U.S. high school Siddeley begins development of Sept. 24 The Russian Beriev Be-200
Fort Worth Regional Airport in Texas, students focused on astronomy, physics the first major new British aircraft twin-turbofan amphibian makes its first
the first time a supersonic transport and fundamental biology, including in a decade, a short-haul and flight from the Irkutsk Aviation Production
one that studied spider web formation Association airfield in Irkutsk, Siberia.
visits the United States. As part of regional airliner named the Hawker
in microgravity via two female spiders, The Be-200 is designed for a variety of
the festivities, U.S. President Richard Siddeley 146. The project is soon
Arabella and Anita. New York Times,
Nixon on Sept. 20 presented the delayed, in part because of a work purposes, including firefighting, search
July 28-Sept. 26, 1973.
Harmon International Aviation stoppage prompted by the 1973 and rescue, air ambulance missions and
Trophy to Concorde chief test pilots Sept. 27 Cosmonauts Vasily Lazarev oil crisis. Production of the 70-seat passenger service. Flight International,
Brian Trubshaw and André Turcat. and Oleg Makarov are launched on design begins in 1983, and the Oct. 7-13, 1998, pp. 25, 28.
Moriba Jah
S
ome people are genuinely scared that artificial intelligence will take over the world. Oth- is an
ers believe AI is like magic and will solve all our problems. While the revolution does need astrodynamicist, space
to be managed through sound governance, what AI really amounts to is an emerging tool environmentalist and
associate professor of
for augmenting our human capabilities. aerospace engineering and
Doing that effectively in the world of aerospace or anywhere else will require understanding engineering mechanics at
the assumptions and limitations that underlie this technology. the University of Texas at
Let’s begin with why we’d want to get help from machines in the fi rst place, even if not nec- Austin. An AIAA fellow and
essarily AI. In general, we humans are interested in predicting the future, whether it’s the MacArthur fellow, he’s also
chief scientist of startup
weather, stock values, shopping trends or developments in a host of other topics. In my line of Privateer.
work as a data scientist, I need to predict where two objects in orbit will be in the future. In order
to know something, we must measure the attributes and behaviors of its constituent parts. Those
measurements constitute data that might at fi rst appear to be haphazard, but as more data is
gathered, a skilled data scientist can fi nd an emergent pattern or structure within the informa-
tion. From that pattern, the scientist can develop a model that can be used to forecast what the
next incoming data should look like.
The process to this point has always been labor intensive, involving algorithms but not AI.
The difference between what we predicted and what we actually observe constitutes statistical
surprisal. If we predicted exactly what we now observe, there is zero surprisal and thus nothing
new to learn. Learning opportunities exist in the presence of surprisal, as we attempt to pro-
gressively minimize it. I fi rst put this learning process into practice at the NASA-funded Jet
Propulsion Laboratory to help me navigate a host of spacecraft to Mars, including the Mars
Reconnaissance Orbiter. More recently, I’ve applied this process in my work to track anthropo-
genic space objects around Earth.
By now, at least some of us have tried the AI-driven Tesla autopilot and are aware that the
Starlink satellites use AI to autonomously maneuver and avert potential collisions. While AI is
far from ubiquitous, these examples illustrate the potential for AI to become a more widely
CONTINUED ON PAGE 61
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