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    Tutorial 6 Semester II Sesi 2021-2022

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    Naim Jumain
    1) Forecast private consumption for 2022Q1 using linear, quadratic, and polynomial trend models based on past data from 2015Q1 to 2021Q4. 2) Compare the forecast performance of the models using RMSE, MAE, MAPE, and symmetric MAPE. 3) State which model best predicts 2022Q1 private consumption. 4) Discuss whether these models can reliably predict private consumption from 2022Q2 to 2025Q4 to support Malaysia's economic growth plans.

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    Tutorial 6 Semester II Sesi 2021-2022

    Uploaded by

    Naim Jumain
    8 views1 page
    1) Forecast private consumption for 2022Q1 using linear, quadratic, and polynomial trend models based on past data from 2015Q1 to 2021Q4. 2) Compare the forecast performance of the models using RMSE, MAE, MAPE, and symmetric MAPE. 3) State which model best predicts 2022Q1 private consumption. 4) Discuss whether these models can reliably predict private consumption from 2022Q2 to 2025Q4 to support Malaysia's economic growth plans.

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    1) Forecast private consumption for 2022Q1 using linear, quadratic, and polynomial trend models based on past data from 2015Q1 to 2021Q4. 2) Compare the forecast performance of the models using RMSE, MAE, MAPE, and symmetric MAPE. 3) State which model best predicts 2022Q1 private consumption. 4) Discuss whether these models can reliably predict private consumption from 2022Q2 to 2025Q4 to support Malaysia's economic growth plans.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as pdf or txt
    8 views1 page

    Tutorial 6 Semester II Sesi 2021-2022

    Uploaded by

    Naim Jumain
    1) Forecast private consumption for 2022Q1 using linear, quadratic, and polynomial trend models based on past data from 2015Q1 to 2021Q4. 2) Compare the forecast performance of the models using RMSE, MAE, MAPE, and symmetric MAPE. 3) State which model best predicts 2022Q1 private consumption. 4) Discuss whether these models can reliably predict private consumption from 2022Q2 to 2025Q4 to support Malaysia's economic growth plans.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    of 1

    Deadline: Saturday, 4 June 2022 11.

    59PM
    Tutorial 6
    Based on data.xlsx,
    1) Prepare an ex-post forecast of private consumption for 2022Q1 based on 2015Q1
    to 2021Q4 actual data, using the linear trend model. Write the name of the model
    page as your name + ID number, e.g. harun126997
    2) Repeat (1) using the quadratic and polynomial trend model.
    3) Based on those results, compare the forecast performance criterions
    a) Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE)
    b) Mean Absolute Error (MAE)
    c) Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)
    d) Symmetric MAPE
    4) State the best model to predict the private consumption in 2022Q1.
    5) Can you rely on these models to predict the private consumption from 2022Q2 until
    2025Q4, to support the Twelfth Malaysia Plan, 2021-2025 narrative on economic
    growth?

    Bonus mark: Can you run all the programs using a single file and display the results for
    ex-post forecast of linear, quadratic and polynomial trend model in one single table? The
    answer is YES. Please, unlock your potential and become a distinguished economist.

    Use EViews programming (Question 1 and 2) and write-up in Word.docx (Question 3 until
    5) to complete this tutorial.

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