DEPARTMENT OF SUSTAINABLE ENERGY ENGINEERING

Sustainable Energy – Enabling Net Zero Emissions

Net Zero CO2 Emissions (by 2050) Plan for Mexico

Submitted to: Dr Rajeev Jindal Submitted by: Harsh

Dubey
Prof. Anna Aggarwal 231290007

INTRODUCTION

One of the most varied and expansive economies in Latin America is Mexico's, which offers significant
potential for the use of renewable energy sources, especially solar and wind power. Bioenergy,
hydropower, and geothermal energy are all relevant. Still, a large portion of Mexico's energy mix
comes from fossil fuels. Furthermore, Business as Usual projections indicate that Mexico will double
its energy use by the year 2050. Mexico's pledge to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by the
year 2050 compared to 2000 emissions was approved by the Mexican Congress. The promise to reduce
GHG emissions by 22% below baseline unconditionally by 2030, a conditional reduction of 36% below
baseline by 2030, and a maximum of 320 MtCO2eq y−1 by 2050 are among the goals. In order to
accomplish these aims, fundamental sectorial and societal changes as well as a substantial amount of
policy planning is required.[2]

Energy demand

Total energy consumption of Mexico in 2020 was 6.667 quad BTU. The major energy consuming
sectors are Transport(37.6%), Industry(31.9%), Residential(16.9%), Commercial and public services
share(4.2%).[1]
Electricity Natural Gas Oil Import of coal and natural gas are growing constantly.
1 Industry Industry Transport Country’s dependence on natural gas for power generation
2 Residential Residential Residential has been a major concern. Mexican government has been
3 C&PS C&PS Industry taking major steps in the direction of mitigating energy
4 Transport Transport C&PS demand.
Based on Globally, transport sector represents more than quarter of the energy consumed. Transport
sector in Mexico alone consumes around 40% of the energy generated. According to SENER's (2018)
medium-term forecast, gasoline will remain the fuel most in demand for motor vehicles, with demand
expected to rise by 30% to 1,040 tbd by 2032. Similarly, the growth in the fleet of vehicles that utilizes
diesel intensely would cause the fuel's consumption to rise by 55% between 2018 and 2032, to reach
492.7 tbd. The Ministry of the Environment and Natural Resources has been implementing a voluntary
program nationwide for the past ten years with the goal of improving the efficiency, safety,
competitiveness, and environmental friendliness of the nation's freight and passenger transportation
sector. "Transporte Limpio" (Clean Transportation) is the name of the program. The initiative is in line
with the suggestions made by the US Environmental Protection Agency's SmartWay program, which
was created in 2004. The energy intensity of the transportation industry should decrease from 0.7434
MJ / dollar in 2017 to 0.5793 MJ / dollar by 2030, or a reduction of 22.1%, if the target of 1.9% per
year reduction between 2016 and 2030 is fulfilled. Considering that the national GDP remains constant
between 2018 and 2030 (941,010.6707 million dollars) and that the current exchange rate of 23.5
pesos/dollar does not undergo significant changes during the same period, it is possible to estimate an
energy demand from the freight transport sector by 2030 of 456.534 PJ. The energy intensity of the
transportation industry should decrease from 0.7434 MJ / dollar in 2017 to 0.5793 MJ / dollar by 2030,
or a reduction of 22.1%, if the target of 1.9% per year reduction between 2016 and 2030 is fulfilled. By
considering the energy consumption values of freight transportation and the national average diesel
emission factor of 72,850.77 kg CO2/TJ (INECC, 2014), one can estimate the reduction in carbon
emissions between 2017 and 2030, from 49,688.6 to 33,258.9 kton CO 2, which could represent a 33.1%
reduction.[1]

ENERGY GENERATION

Mexico emits 439gCO2 for every kWh of power used, which is still high but somewhat less than the
G20 average of 449gCO2/kWh. Mexico's emissions intensity has barely decreased since the previous
five years, since gas and oil have mostly replaced each other, not regenerative. Since the production of
electricity accounted for 25.9% of all emissions in the country, this industry must be taken into account
in any attempt to lower emissions and slow down climate change. As per the International Energy
Agency, the electrical sector contributes over two-thirds of the total growth in CO 2 emissions
worldwide, whilst the energy sector accounts for over 80% of it[3].

The above figure shows that 2019 saw 79% of Mexico's electricity coming from fossil fuels, ranking it
among the G20's highest percentages. The growth rate of renewable power is below the G20 average.
Mexico must accelerate the use of renewable energy sources and phase out coal power by 2030 in order
to keep global warming at 1.5°C. Rather, it has utilized the COVID-19 epidemic as rationale to
implement strict regulations that impede the installation of solar and wind power installations[4].
It was feasible to predict the anticipated energy demand for the year 2050 using the UN and CONAPO
population models with per capita consumption obtained from the IEA, as shown in Figure 2. Because
of its high per capita consumption and steady population increase, this scenario has the biggest growth
in demand for CVF-4 MWh; the LVF-2.0 MWh scenario has the lowest growth. The IEA projects that
Mexico's electricity demand will increase
by 2.4% annually to 459 TWh in 2040.
CCUS profile of Mexico

Sequestration can be classified into four primary categories: deep saline aquifers; plugging the hole
where oil once predominated; substituting CO2 for subsurface methane; and utilizing enhanced oil
recovery (EOR) technology. Reservoirs need to be deep, permeable, and porous in order for
sequestration to make sense. Certain regions in Mexico satisfy these conditions and are prepared to
store CO2. Fossil fuel use and processing is the primary cause of greenhouse gas emissions in the
nation. 60% of all greenhouse gas emissions are attributed to the use and processing of fossil fuels, of
which 75% are CO2. The primary sources of greenhouse gas emissions are the metallurgical and
petroleum industries, cement manufacturing, power generation, and natural gas and petroleum
production. 2010 saw 407.3 megatonnes of CO2 emissions only from energy use.
States are also held responsible for their emission rates based on the industries and activities that exist
in their areas. Coahuila is the most polluting state in the nation, with emissions of over 24 million tons.
It is because of the carbon plants that produce power there, as well as the numerous iron and steel
plants. After producing almost 19 million tons, Tamaulipas comes in second, followed by Veracruz and
Campeche, which each released 15.5 million tons of CO2. Because these final three cities are located in
petroleum-exploitable zones that are beneficial to EOS, they are the most practical for CCS procedures.
PEMEX, the oil monopoly in Mexico, has historically and presently invested in EOR because it wants
to acquire as much oil as possible. In addition to Halliburton, an El Carmito plant has been enhancing
its oil by sequestering carbon underground. It has reportedly been able to sequester 8,459,550 tons of
CO2 since it began, which is a significant amount of barrels. PEMEX and other companies have been
building a trial project called "Activo Integral Aceite Terciario del Golfo" to generate power using an
emission-free notion. Research has been done on the viability of CCS, as well as potential uses and a
funding strategy. It all began in 2012 with the capture of CO2 beneath a 2 MW power plant[5]. BLUE
scenario represents a technological development that does not consider CO 2 capture and
storage systems. The GREEN scenario considers carbon capture technologies in power sector
and cement, steel, and chemical industries. The BLUE scenario follows a growing trend in
CO2 emissions, and by 2070 they will be almost double the annual emissions compared to
those emitted in 2015. Even considering the penetration of electric vehicles and renewable
sources.
There are essentially three trend periods for emissions in the GREEN scenario. The first one, which
spans the years 2015 to 2027, depicts a steady and equal growth in both cases because CCS installation
begins in power plants in 2025 and in industrial facilities in 2030. The second period, which spans
2028 to 2045, exhibits a progressive decline in emissions. This decline is primarily attributable to the
installation of CO2 capture systems in the industrial sector, which has a lesser impact, and the natural
gas combined cycles and supercritical coal used in the electrical industry. The third period spans from
2046 to 2070 and exhibits a gradual growth, albeit to a lesser extent than the first period. This can be
attributed primarily to the trend of rising emissions in sectors other than the electrical industry, as the
latter continues its trend of declining emissions. By 2050, CCS technology could cut 32 percent of
GHG emissions. This state of affairs is sustained until 2070.
[1]Data and energy efficiency indicators of freight transport sector in Mexico
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213624X2100119X
[2] Mexico’s low carbon futures: An integrated assessment for energy planning and climate
change mitigation by 2050
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328717300794
[3] CLIMATE TRANSPARENCY REPORT COMPARING G20 CLIMATE ACTION AND
RESPONSE TO THE COVID-19 CRISIS
https://www.climate-transparency.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Mexico-CT-2020-WEB2.pdf

[4] Comparison of Scenarios for the Mexican Electricity System for 2050 Energy Transition Law
Objectives—Pre COVID-19 Analysis:
https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9717/11/2/410
[5] Carbon capture and storage in Mexico
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_capture_and_storage_in_Mexico
[6] Analysis of the contribution of CCS to achieve the objectives of Mexico to reduce GHG
emissions
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1750583617302347?ref=pdf_download&fr=RR-
2&rr=825c11963e8a1b98

Mexico Energy Outlook

https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/e911d7c8-955a-4495-ace0-da85ac4484f9
MexicoEnergyOutlook.pdf

Total Mexico energy consumption:

https://www.eia.gov/international/data/country/MEX/infographic/total-consumption-infographic?
pd=44&p=000000001&u=0&f=A&v=mapbubble&a=-&i=none&vo=value&&t=C&g=none&l=249--
139&s=315532800000&e=1609459200000

Impacts and savings of energy efficiency measures: A case for Mexico's electrical grid:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652622004644#da0010