TO: Kari Lake

FROM: Lake Data & Political Depts.

DATE: November 16, 2023

SUBJECT: [INTERNAL] - Arizona Polling Update

Executive Summary:

Arizona is the best pickup opportunity for Senate Republicans in 2024

outside of West Virginia. Prior to any significant political spending, the vast
majority of credible polling shows the Arizona Senate race as a statistical
tie. Averaging the polls, both Lake and Gallego are tied at 37%.

Additionally, Gallego is generally unknown by voters, while Lake is

well-defined. The electorate is largely unaware of Gallego therefore also
unaware of his lock-step support of the Biden agenda. Conversely, the
electorate is largely informed of Lake and her political posture. Messaging
that informs the electorate of Gallego’s progressive ideology will turn-off
Arizona’s common-sense voters, making those voters up for grabs and
placing the race well within Lake’s reach.
 AZ Presidential Polling:

President Trump maintains a statistically significant lead in all but one Arizona poll
released over the last month. President Trump leads by 4% on average.

Trump’s lead in Arizona is outpacing both his national lead and his lead in all states with
competitive U.S. Senate Races except Ohio & Montana.
 AZ U.S. Senate Polling:

Cygnal, the top rated private pollster in the world, shows Lake leading Gallego by 1%
with Sinema trailing far behind.

[Per NRSC Internal (McLaughlin, 10/24)]:

- 20% of voters have heard of Gallego, but have no opinion of him. 18% have
never heard of Gallego.

- 5% of voters have heard of Lake, but have no opinion of her. 2% have never
heard of Lake.

38% of the electorate either has no opinion of Gallego or has not heard of him. This is a
massive window of opportunity for Lake. Gallego’s record is undeniably further left than
that of Democrats that have been successful in AZ statewide.

By defining him on this record, the case can be made to Arizonans that Gallego’s brand
of politics is not in line with the common-sense voters of Arizona. If executed properly,
come Election Day, this portion of the electorate will have a much more informed view of
Gallego’s progressive record, giving Lake an opening to overtake him.
 Summary of 2024 Arizona U.S. Senate Polling:

With the exception of an outlier (see below), all Arizona Senate polls have Lake and
Gallego in a statistical tie, with all results being within the MOE.
 Outlier Acknowledgement, Noble Predictive:
Noble Predictive has Sinema 10% higher than any other pollster

​The stark outlier from Noble Predictive (Noble) should come as no surprise to AZ
politicos. Noble Predictive is historically erratic when polling primary races in Arizona.

Noble’s prediction missed the mark in the 2022 AZ Gubernatorial Primary by 14%.

In April of 2018, Noble’s GOP Senate Primary poll showed Ward at 36%, McSally at
27%, and Arpaio with 22%. Meanwhile, every single poll conducted by other pollsters at
the time showed McSally with a definitive 10%+ lead. Closer to Election Day 2018,
Noble’s poll swung widely back, favoring McSally. McSally went on to defeat Ward by
25%. This begs the question, what is causing these erratic results from Noble?

A review of Noble’s recent public polling revealed a stark difference in the

pollster’s methodology in the weeks immediately prior to an election compared to
polls they ran months leading up to an election. In surveys conducted right before
an election, Noble Predictive uses a blend of sample methods that includes live calling.
Conversely, when polling far in advance of an election, Noble Predictive collects their
sample solely via the far cheaper and less reliable method of opt-in online panels.

Noble has been able to maintain a credible pollster rating by being judged on their late
polls with a blended methodology. If one looks at their record otherwise, it is painfully
obvious that Noble Predictive’s early polls have no business being taken
seriously in Arizona.

Additionally, their most recent poll inexplicably includes Blake Masters in their Senate
GOP primary question, despite Masters having declared in the AZ-8 congressional
primary. Finally, Noble Predictive distributed inaccurate Lake favorability numbers in
their most recent survey and were forced to issue a correction.

In sum, Noble Predictive’s methodology must be very carefully evaluated before giving
credibility to one of their polls. Presently, all polls from Noble Predictive rely solely on
opt-in polling and drastically depart from all other polling in the race.
 Arizona is the GOP’s Best Flip Opportunity:

The Republican lead in a 3-way Arizona Senate race is larger than the GOP lead in all
other competitive US Senate races, less Montana.

The Cook Political Report currently rates Arizona as a “Toss Up.” The only other
Democrat held seat rated as a Toss Up is Ohio, while all other Democrat seats are rated
“Lean D.”
 Conclusions:
- Lake and Gallego are currently tied in the Senate race at 37%.

- 38% of voters have never heard of or have no opinion of Gallego, compared

to just 7% for Lake; Gallego has a ton of room to be defined by Lake.

- President Trump’s lead in Arizona polls is a positive sign for Lake heading
into 2024. President Trump’s lead in Arizona outpaces both the national
average and polling in all other states with competitive U.S. Senate races,
barring OH & MT.

- Among Democratically held Senate seats, Arizona is the most likely to flip
for the GOP based on the combination of polling and credible ratings by
outside sources.