Probability

Fundamentals of probability
• The probability of an event is the long-term proportion, or relative frequency, of its occurrence. For any event
n( A)
A, the probability of its occurrence is Pr( A) = where n( A) is the number of favourable outcomes and
n( )
n( ) is the number of all possible outcomes.
• For any event A, 0  Pr( A)  1. If Pr( A) = 0 , it is not possible for A to occur; if Pr( A) = 1 , the event A is certain
to occur.
• Pr( A´) = 1 − Pr( A) where A´ is the complementary event of A.
• Events A and B are said to be mutually exclusive if they cannot occur simultaneously, that is Pr( A  B) = 0 .
• For events A and B that are mutually exclusive, Pr( A  B) = Pr( A) + Pr( B) .
• For events A and B that are not mutually exclusive, Pr( A  B) = Pr( A) + Pr( B) − Pr( A  B).
• A probability table presents any known probabilities of the four compound events A  B , A  B´ , A´B and
A´B´ in rows and columns.

Relative frequency
• Relative frequency describes how often an event has occurred. It is found by dividing the number of times an
event has occurred by the total number of trials. Relative probabilities are often expressed as decimals but may
also be expressed as percentages or fractions.

Conditional probability
• For two events A and B that are not mutually exclusive, the conditional probability of event A occurring given
that event B has occurred can be expressed by the equation:
 A  Pr( A  B)
Pr   =
B Pr( B)
B
• This equation may also be expressed as Pr( A  B) = Pr( A)  Pr   .
 A
Independence
• Events that have no effect on each other are called independent events. For such events, Pr( A | B) = Pr( A).
• Two events A and B may be confirmed as being independent if they satisfy the equation
Pr( A  B) = Pr( A)  Pr( B).
• If the events A, B, C, … are independent, then Pr( A  B  C  ...) = Pr( A)  Pr( B)  Pr(C) ...