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Capital Market Research in Accounting
Capital Market Research in Accounting
Capital Market Research in Accounting
DEPARTMENT OF ACCOUNTING
WHAT IS ACCOUNTING?
Accounting is the process of recording financial transactions pertaining to a business.
Accounting in relation to the capital market refers to identifying, measuring, recording,
classifying, summarizing, interpretation and communication of financial information on a
firm's transactions and events to permit informed judgement by users in the capital market.
WHAT IS RESEARCH?
The capital markets research topics of current interest to researchers include tests of market
efficiency with respect to accounting information, fundamental analysis, and value relevance
of financial reporting. Evidence from research on these topics is likely to be helpful in capital
market investment decisions, accounting standard setting, and corporate financial disclosure
decisions.
Capital market research investigates the association between accounting information and key
capital market variables, such as the company's share price, or the rate of return on its shares
over some period or their systematic risk. The stock market, if working perfectly and in line
with theories of market efficiency that we will look at shortly, will control information,
asymmetry, adverse selection and moral hazard, by penalizing any firm who perpetrates any
of it. Accounting standards, principles and the monitoring of compliance with them by
auditors and regulators are a principal means by which investors accomplish this aim, but
they do so as a result more of historical political reaction to scandals than by way of
spontaneous and organic market responses.
The stock market is where investors in publicly listed companies buy and sell their stocks and
shares. All stock markets have regulations about information that firms must disclose as a
condition of their listing and all stock markets source such regulations from accounting
principles and standards because that is the most efficient way for regulators to outsource
their responsibilities for designing and reviewing the disclosures, they believe investors need.
The existence of regulation is proof that we live in a world where markets cannot be
perfected without some outside help. It is possible in theory for a market to be imperfect, yet
fully efficient. Because market efficiency is such a strong assumption of so much accounting
theory, research, and practice, we need to understand what is being claimed and to have a
good idea of how well grounded the claims are.
This study shows the interdependent relationship between capital markets research and
accounting, as its generally understood, capital market reveals the transactional platforms put
in place by regulatory authorities to aid the effective transference of funds from surplus units
to deficit units, while accounting entails the systematic process of recording financial
transactions and the strict application of statutory standards in financial reporting.
Moving further, it might interest one to know that the careful dispersion of relevant, accurate
and timely information has a direct correlation on the investor's decision given the varying
capital market ratios, ranging from the Earnings per share (EPS), Price to earnings ratio(P/E)
amongst others. However, in a case where the wrong information is dispatched either because
of negligence or deliberate, fraudulent manipulations, the unsuspecting, investing public can
be made to pay dearly for it. A very good instance is the Arthur Anderson and Enron's case,
where financial statements were window-dressed in a way that misrepresented the financial
state of the organization, and this led to loss of costly investments and fortunes.
More so, the synergistic relationship between the Efficient market hypothesis (EMH) and the
Positive accounting theory (PAT) has aided in no small way, the understanding of how the
economic world works rather than how it should work. These theories also show flexibility of
manager's choice of accounting systems, which gives room for opportunistic behaviors.
However, the positive accounting theory has suffered some criticism given that, it does not
provide prescription and ways of enhancing accounting practices as it ignores its obvious
struggles and obstacles. Also, PAT is considered to be problematic because it is not purely
scientific in its approach, hence, it is not totally reliable. In addition, given the various
hypotheses put forth by its proponents, it is difficult to predict accurately per time what
manager’s actions and inactions would be in different situations and context.
Lastly, according to the proponents of the efficient market hypothesis, it is believed that all
available information is already adequately reflected in stock prices, however, it is impossible
for any investor in the long run to get returns substantially higher than the market average.
Although, there’s the possibility of manipulating variables to his advantage, thereby, leading
to abnormal profits, even, if it’s just for a short while.
There are several criticisms to the Positive Accounting Theory (PAT). Firstly, it does not
provide prescription and ways of enhancing accounting practices as it ignores various
struggles and obstacles. Secondly, it is not value-free in nature because it asserts an
assumption that every action is driven by self-interest. Moreover, the variable that had been
removed from the theory could be substituted by the size of firms and other bonus plans
(Horngren, 2013). Further it is based on invalid fundamental assumptions that every action
is driven by a desire to enhance the wealth of an individual. It has to be noted that such
assumptions represent a far too simple and negative aspect of mankind. It needs to be noted
that the holdout samples in the theory were not employed by the managers in the time of
making choice of accounting methods (Needles & Power, 2013). The issues being addressed
by the theory have not portrayed great development since its general inception in the 1970’ s.
Various research accompanied within the positive accounting theory gives due importance to
individual accounting choices in time of its application but it must be noted that because of
this organizations will have a varied number of options related to accounting, that can have a
negative impact on the financial position and performance of the organization. Further, the
proxies or measurements that are employed within the theory are often far too simple in
As there are always a large number of both buyers and sellers in the market, price movements
always occur efficiently (i.e., in a timely, up-to-date manner). Thus, stocks are always trading
at their current fair market value.
The major conclusion of the theory is that since stocks always trade at their fair market value,
then it is virtually impossible to either buy undervalued stocks at a bargain or sell overvalued
stocks for extra profits. Neither expert stock analysis nor carefully implemented market
timing strategies can hope to average doing any better than the performance of the overall
market. If that’ s true, then the only way investors can generate superior returns is by taking
on much greater risk.
The implication of EMH is that the market can't be beaten because all information that could
predict performance is already built into the stock price. The concept has fallen out of favor
in the last couple of decades with research advances in behavioral finance and, to a lesser
extent, with the success of quantitative trading algorithms. High-frequency trading is one
example. Over time, it's been shown to contribute to market efficiency, implying that markets
weren't efficient before.
• All market participants have equal access to historical data on stock prices, and both
public and private information is available. This condition proves that no arbitrage
opportunity is available. Thus, none of the investors has an advantage over the others
in making investment decisions.
• The efficient market hypothesis only holds if investors are rational, i.e., investors are
risk averse. To put it simply, if there are two investments of the same return but of
different risk, a rational investor will always prefer the one with lower risk.
• It is impossible to beat the market in the long run, which means that it is impossible in
the long term to consistently receive returns higher than the market average.
• Stock prices change randomly, i.e., trends or patterns in the past do not allow
someone to forecast their movements in the future. Therefore, the efficient market
hypothesis makes both technical and fundamental analysis completely useless.
The recent findings of three schools of thought challenge the efficient market hypothesis
based on their claims that evidence of predictable patterns in stock prices exists.
One school of thought challenging the efficient market hypothesis is momentum investing, a
combination of technical and fundamental analysis that claims that certain price patterns
persist over time. The second is behavioral finance, which maintains that investors are guided
by psychology more than by rationality and efficiency. And the third is fundamental analysis,
which holds that certain valuation ratios predict outperformance and underperformance in
future periods.
Momentum investors base their argument against the efficient market hypothesis on the
following.
In a truly efficient market, the short-term serial correlations among stock prices should be
zero, but several studies have shown examples of short-term serial correlations that are not
zero, thus indicating the possibility of a discoverable pattern. Although these findings are
statistically significant, they may not be economically significant. For example, as soon as
evidence of the so-called January effect was made public, investors incorporated the
information into their investment decisions and the effect disappeared. Furthermore,
momentum strategies do not perform well in all markets. Although they led to excess
performance in the late 1990s, they generated underperformance relative to the poorly
performing market of the early 2000s.
The findings of behavioral finance indicate that investors overreact to some events and
underreact to others. Underreaction is as common as overreaction and post-event continuation
of abnormal returns is as common as post-event reversals. In other words, what appears to be
a trend according to the tenets of behavioral finance may merely be a random event.
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With regard to fundamental analysis, many believe that initial dividend yield and price-to-
earnings multiples can be used to predict future stock results. However, these measures do
not consistently predict stock performance in all time periods, which means that they do not
contradict the efficient market hypothesis. More so, occasional anomalies do not violate the
efficient market hypothesis; they lose their predictive power when they are discovered and do
not hold true in the long run.
Burton G. Malkiel, a well-known proponent of the efficient market hypothesis, refutes the
claims of all these schools of thought currently challenging the efficient market hypothesis.
He notes, however, that a difference between market efficiency and perfect pricing exists; the
market often misprices securities, at least in the short run, but an investor cannot know before
the fact when mispricing will occur.
Stock Prices often reflect evidence of:
• Irrational exuberance: people getting carried away by booms and asset bubbles (e.g.
US house prices in the 2000s, Dot Com Bubble and Bust.
• Empirical evidence that stock prices do not reflect. E.g. According to Dreman, in a
1995 paper, low P/E stocks have greater returns.
Those who subscribe to this version of the theory believe that only information that is not
readily available to the public can help investors boost their returns to a performance level
above that of the general market.
Advocates for the weak form efficiency theory believe that if the fundamental analysis is
used, undervalued, and overvalued stocks can be determined, and investors can research
companies' financial statements to increase their chances of making higher-than-market-
average profits.
Lastly there are inefficient stock markets. They may be closely controlled by the State or
entirely unregulated or anywhere in between. What they have in common is that they are
stock markets where technical analysis pays off and enables an analyst to beat the market
systematically and sustainably. Technical analysis is a set of techniques for analyzing
previous share price movements in the hope of establishing patterns that will repeat.
Technical analysis is popular with analysts even in cities with large stock markets with quite
substantial semi strong sections, such as London and Hong Kong. Patterns undoubtedly do
exist in stock price movements over time, both at the level of the individual stock and at the
level of the market. Stock price movements over the medium term may therefore be to some
extent predictable. In an efficient market, however, any gain from studying such patters is
already impounded into the stock price and therefore cannot be used to beat the market
systematically and over time.
Capital Market Research as a concept comprises of two things:
• Financial Reporting
• Financial Analysis
Financial Analysis involves the detailed and critical examination of the individual
components (companies, investors and investing psychology) and the market. Financial
analysis is not complete without highlighting the importance of fundamental, technical and
investment psychology analysis. Fundamental analysis is the examination of the publicly
available information on reported happenings of the market. These kinds of information
provide an insight into how the market will react which is basically what investing
psychology is about. Technical Analysis is the analysis of the different pointers provided by
the market in a bid to predict where the market might be headed. The concept of Efficient
Market Hypothesis majorly centers around how the market reacts to the information available
Conclusively, the concept of a strong EMH makes it impossible to beat the market because
information is equally available to every component of the market and it is assumed and
expected they will react in the same manner. Conversely, in the weak EMH, the structure of
the market makes it highly possible to exploit the market as there is information asymmetry.
Given that the semi-strong EMH is the closest we are to an efficient market, there are
loopholes which may be exploited to beat the market however, government, statutory and
legal regulations have made it difficult.