Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

ASEAN and the South China Sea
Dispute: Time for Action?
November 16, 2023

We are currently working on a study about the conflict in the South China Sea. Some
U.S. senators are urging ASEAN leaders to present a united front in the face of
increased Chinese coercion and division in the Southeast Asian region, and the South
China Sea. Senator James E. Risch, for example, said on the South China Sea, the
willingness of ASEAN claimant states to push back on China diplomatically is very
important. ASEAN countries should also focus on increasing maritime domain
awareness, joint patrols, and economic development of their exclusive economic
zones.
What do you think about the current issue in the South China Sea? Do you believe that
ASEAN leaders will follow what some U.S. senators suggest with regard to the conflict
in the South China Sea?
ANSWER: The current situation in the South China Sea is marked by increased Chinese
aggressiveness in asserting its illegal claims to rocks and low tide elevations and their
surrounding waters in the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) of claimant states.
Chinese aggressiveness can be measured by two metrics: time on station and the
number of incidents. China Coast Guard ships and Maritime Militia trawlers are
maintaining a persistent forward presence in the EEZs of littoral states for longer
periods than ever before. Second, according to senior U.S. Navy officials, China has
instigated nearly 300 incidents in and over the South China Sea since mid-2021 against
ships and aircraft from the United States, Australia, the Philippines and other security
partners.
The most recent hot spot has arisen as a result of Chinese efforts to block the resupply
of Philippine military forces stationed on the beached BRP Sierra Madre on Second
Thomas Shoal. Chinese actions have included the use of high-power water cannons,
dangerous manoeuvring at sea, collisions, and boxing resupply ships from exercising
their right to freedom of navigation.
Under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. the Philippines has undertaken a shift in policy
to a stronger assertion of national sovereignty in the West Philippine Sea through
diplomatic protests against illegal Chinese actions, stepped up Philippine maritime
and air patrols, and “assertive transparency” by giving near real time publicity to
incidents as they occur.
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Ever since ASEAN issued its first statement of concern on the South China Sea in 1992,
it has refrained from mentioning China by name. ASEAN, as an organisation, has a
long-standing template on the South China Sea that it includes in statements issued
by the ASEAN Chair after meetings by foreign ministers and joint declarations issued
after summits by government leaders. The template normally notes that “some
members” have concerns about recent incident that “might” affect regional tensions.
However, since late 2019, individual ASEAN members such as Malaysia, Indonesia,
Vietnam and the Philippines have become more vocal in response to Chinese
aggressiveness. They reject China’s claims to historic rights and call for the
implementation of the 2016 Award issued by the Arbitral Tribunal that heard the case
brought by the Philippines against China.
Senator Risch is absolutely right that ASEAN claimant states should push back
diplomatically against Chinese actions in the South China Sea. This provides a
necessary basis for the United States and other maritime powers to back regional
claimant states.
Most of the claimant states are currently engaged in the activities that the Senator
recommends.
ASEAN littoral states are already participating in the U.S.-led maritime domain
awareness initiative. Indonesia recently hosted ASEAN’s first naval exercise but due to
the sensitivity of some members relocated the exercise from the southern reaches of
the South China Sea to Indonesian waters. The U.S. and the Philippines also conducted
their first joint sail since 2016 and trilateral patrols including Japan will become a
regular feature.
Indonesia and Malaysia both continue their national efforts to explore and exploit
hydrocarbon resources in their EEZs despite Chinese harassment. The Philippines is
currently reviewing its legal position to resume oil exploitation activities in Reed Bank
under pressure from China to undertake joint development.
Vietnam’s position is ambiguous. Several years ago, Vietnam suspended oil
exploitation activities in the waters near Vanguard Bank under Chinese pressure.
Vietnam had to pay hefty compensation to the foreign oil companies involved.
Russia’s Rosneft sold its share to Gazprom and withdrew. Gazprom had plans to link
its production activities in Indonesia’s Natuna Sea with Vanguard Bank and process
the natural gas onshore in Vietnam. Russia’s dependency on China has put a cloud
over its commercial activities in Vietnam.
The bottom line is that diplomatic protests by claimant states while necessary are not
sufficient to get China to alter course and withdraw its ships and vessels from the EEZs
of littoral states.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “ASEAN and the South China Sea Dispute: Time
for Action?,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, November 16, 2023. All
background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer.. To remove yourself
from the mailing list type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.