CRITICAL

THINKING
SPECIAL CERTIFICATE IN
CRIME ANALYSIS
MODULE 3

2020 EDITION
Why do YOU study for a
Degree?
Do You Agree With This Statement?

“Some people study all their life and

at their death they have learned
everything except to THINK”
– Francois Domergue

WHY?
Do You Agree?
 CRITICAL THINKING FUNDAMENTALS

1. What is Thinking? 3. What is

2. Types of Thinking
Critical Thinking?

7. Characteristics of
4. Critical Thinking
a Critical Thinker
Standards

6. Barriers to 5. Benefits of
Critical Thinking Critical Thinking
 WHAT IS THINKING?

Why doesn’t SHE like me?

Why doesn’t HE like me?

As you start asking questions and seek answers,

you are in fact thinking.
 WHAT IS THINKING?

Thinking is a purposeful, organized

cognitive process that we use to make
sense of our world.
 TYPES OF THINKING

• Analyzing Problem Solving

• Evaluating Decision Making
• Reasoning

New
Ideas

Left Right

Critical Creative
Thinking Thinking
 WARNING:
THIS MAN IS NOT THINKING CRITICALLY!!
“CRITICAL THINKING consists of a mental process of
analyzing or evaluating information, particularly statements
or propositions that people have offered as true. It forms a
process of reflecting upon the meaning of statements,
examining the offered evidence and reasoning, and forming
judgments about the facts.” - Wikipedia

“CRITICAL THINKING is the intellectually disciplined

process of actively and skillfully conceptualizing, applying,
analyzing, synthesizing, and/or evaluating information
gathered from, or generated by, observation, experience,
reflection, reasoning, or communication, as a guide to
belief and action. “ - Michael Scriven & Richard Paul
CRITICAL THINKING is the general term given to a
wide range of cognitive and intellectual skills
needed to:

▪ Effectively identify, analyze, and evaluate

arguments.
▪ Discover and overcome personal prejudices and
biases.
▪ Formulate and present convincing reasons in
support of conclusions.
▪ Make reasonable, intelligent decisions about
what to believe and what to do.
 IN THE CONTEXT OF CRIME ANALYSIS…

Critical thinking is the art of ANALYZING and

EVALUATING thinking with a view to improving it
or SOLVING A PROBLEM.

WHO KILLED GERONIMO? * Check the case file *

 Reasoning

Analyzing CRITICAL Evaluating

THINKING
SKILLS

Decision Making Problem Solving

 CRITICAL THINKING STANDARDS
The most significant critical (intellectual) thinking standards:
▪ Clarity Malinaw? Maliwanag?
▪ Accuracy Eksakto? Tama? Wasto?
▪ Precision Tumpak?/Tiyak?
▪ Relevance Kaugnayan?
▪ Depth Malalim?
▪ Breadth Maluwang?
▪ Logic Makatwiran?
▪ Fairness Makatarungan? Mainam?
 BENEFITS OF CRITICAL THINKING
Examples:
 Academic Performance
 understand the arguments and beliefs of others
 Critically evaluating those arguments and beliefs
 Develop and defend one's own well-supported arguments and beliefs.

 Workplace
 Helps us to reflect and get a deeper understanding of our own and others’ decisions
 Encourage open-mindedness to change
 Aid us in being more analytical in solving problems

 Daily life
 Helps us to avoid making foolish personal decisions.
 Promotes an informed and concerned citizenry capable of making good decisions on important social,
political and economic issues.
 Aids in the development of autonomous thinkers capable of examining their assumptions, dogmas, and
prejudices.
 BARRIERS TO CRITICAL THINKING
▪ If Critical Thinking is so important,
why is it that uncritical thinking is
so common?
▪ Why is that so many people
including many highly educated
and intelligent people find critical
thinking so difficult?
 BARRIERS TO CRITICAL THINKING
▪ Background Info
▪ Poor reading skills
▪ Poor listening skills
▪ Bias
▪ Prejudice
▪ Superstition
▪ Egocentrism
▪ Socio-centrism
▪ Peer pressure
▪ Provincialism
▪ Narrow or Closed-mindedness
▪ Relativistic Thinking
▪ Unwarranted Assumptions
▪ Scapegoating
▪ Rationalization
▪ Wishful thinking
▪ Short-term thinking
▪ Selective perception
▪ Overpowering emotions
▪ Self-Deception
▪ Face-saving
▪ Fear of change
 FIVE POWERFUL BARRIERS TO CRITICAL THINKING
I am probably the
Self-centered thinking greatest thinker since
Egocentrism Socrates!
self-interested thinking; self-serving bias

Group-centered thinking
Sociocentrism
Group Bias; Conformism

Beliefs that are presumed to be true without adequate

Unwarranted evidence or justification
Assumptions Assumption; Stereotyping

Wishful Believing that something is true because one wishes it

Thinking were true.
The truth is “just a matter of opinion”
Relativistic Relativism; Subjectivism; Cultural relativism
Thinking
 CHARACTERISTICS OF A CRITICAL THINKER
▪ Are you OPEN MINDED about other people’s view?
▪ Are you HONEST to yourself (or others) when you are wrong?
▪ Do you have the COURAGE and PASSION to take initiative and confront
problems and meet challenges?
▪ Are you AWARE of your own biases and preconceptions?
▪ Do you WELCOME CRITICISM from other people?
▪ Do you have INDEPENDENT opinions and are not afraid to disagree?
The Force,
I sense is with
you.
Break into groups of 4-5, Dr. Yoda was an
and then discuss, identify excellent teacher,
because he engaged
and rank the Top 10 our mind, had
characteristics/traits/beha activities, etc.

viours of an excellent:

10 min Brainstorm together and identify 10 characteristics for each item

1. CRIMINAL above.
INVESTIGATOR (e.g. try to remember the best INVESTIGATOR(S) you have ever
know and then identify their characteristics…). .
2. CRIME ANALYST
5 min Prioritize and rank the chosen characteristics of each item above
according to importance (e.g. Top 10).
Choose one member of
your group to take 15 min Group presentation & discussion
notes and be the group
reporter. - The Group reporter must submit their findings in hard copy format
after the class (use template) or soft-copy format to the lecturer
before next class.
CRITICAL ANALYSIS
Analytical thinking follows the
SCIENTIFIC APPROACH to problem solving

Problem

Solution Hypothesis

Analysis Facts
 DEFINING THE PROBLEM
Definition:
▪ A PROBLEM is a situation that is judged as something that needs to be
corrected – implies that a state of "wholeness" does not exist
Important:
▪ It is our job to make sure we’re solving the right problem – it may not be
the one presented to us by the client. What do we really need to solve?
Basic Concepts:
▪ Defining the problem clearly improves focus – it drives the analytical
process
▪ Getting to a clearly defined problem is often discovery driven – Start with a
conceptual definition and through analysis (root cause, impact analysis,
etc.) you shape and redefine the problem in terms of issues
 FORMULATING THE HYPOTHESES
Definition:
▪ HYPOTHESIS is a tentative explanation for an observation that can be tested
(i.e. proved or disproved) by further investigation
Importance:
▪ START AT THE END - Figuring out the solution to the problem, i.e.
"hypothesizing", before you start will help build a roadmap for approaching
the problem
Basic Concepts:
▪ Hypotheses can be expressed as possible root causes of the problem.
▪ Breaking down the problem into key drivers (root causes) can help formulate
a hypotheses
 COLLECTING THE FACTS
Definition:
▪ Process of getting MEANINGFUL INFORMATION (has merit – not false) that is
qualitative (expert opinions) or quantitative (measurable performance) to your
decisions
Importance:
▪ Gathering relevant data and information is a critical step in supporting the
analyses required for proving or disproving the hypotheses
Basic Concepts:
▪ Know where to dig
▪ Know how to filter through information
▪ Know how to verify – Has happened in the past
▪ Know how to apply – Relates to what you are trying to solve
 CONDUCTING THE ANALYSIS
Definition:
▪ Deliberate process of breaking a problem down through the application of
knowledge and various analytical techniques
Importance:
▪ Analysis of the facts is required to prove or disprove the hypotheses
▪ Analysis provides an understanding of issues and drivers behind the problem
Basic Concepts:
▪ It is generally better to spend more time analyzing the data and information as
opposed to collecting them. The goal is to find the “golden nuggets” that
quickly confirm or deny a hypothesis
▪ Root cause analysis, storyboarding, and force field analysis are some of many
analytical techniques that can applied.
 DEVELOPING THE SOLUTION
Definition:
▪ SOLUTIONS are the final recommendations presented based on the
outcomes of the hypothesis testing.
Importance:
▪ SOLUTIONS are what we are looking for
Basic Concepts:
▪ It is important to ensure SOLUTIONS– solutions are useless if they cannot
be implemented
▪ Running an actual example through the solution is an effective way of
testing the effectiveness and viability of the solution
ANALYTICAL TOOLS
AND TECHNIQUES
 PROBLEM IDENTIFICATION
▪ A problem becomes known when a person observes a discrepancy between
the way things are and the way things ought to be.
▪ Problems can be identified through:
a. Comparative/benchmarking studies
b. Performance reporting - assessment of current performance against goals
and objectives
c. SWOT Analysis – assessment of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and
threats
d. Complaints
e. Surveys
f. Gaps Analysis
 GETTING TO THE "ROOT" OF THE PROBLEM

▪ Sometimes the thing we think is a problem is not the real problem,

so to get at the real problem, probing is necessary
▪ Root Cause Analysis is an effective method of probing – it helps
identify what, how, and why something happened
▪ Definition of root cause:
▪ Specific underlying cause
▪ Those that can reasonably be identified
▪ Those that management has control to fix
 ROOT CAUSE ANALYSIS TECHNIQUE
- FIVE WHY’S
refers to the practice of asking, five times, why the problem exists in
order to get to the root cause of the problem
Employee
turnover rate
Why? Why? Why? Why? Why?
has been
increasing

Employees are Employees are Employees feel Other employers Demand for
leaving for other not satisfied that they are are paying such employees
jobs underpaid higher salaries has increased in
the market
 ROOT CAUSE ANALYSIS TECHNIQUE
– FISHBONE DIAGRAM
FISHBONE DIAGRAM (A.K.A. CAUSE AND EFFECT DIAGRAM) IS AN ANALYSIS TOOL THAT
PROVIDES A SYSTEMATIC WAY OF LOOKING AT EFFECTS AND THE CAUSES THAT CREATE
OR CONTRIBUTE TO THOSE EFFECTS.

Cause Cause
Detail Detail

Result (Problem)

Detail Detail

Cause Cause

The value of the Fishbone Diagram is that it provides a method for categorizing the many
potential causes of problems or issues in an orderly way and in identifying root causes.
 OTHER ROOT CAUSE ANALYSIS
TECHNIQUES
▪ Force Field Analysis – Visually show forces that impact your problem or
issue
▪ Scatter Diagrams – Graphs the relationship of two variables – quantifies
the correlation, showing how one variable influences another.
▪ Process Mapping – Maps the “as is” flow of activities that make up a
process – look for excessive handoffs, redundancies, and other root
causes of inefficiencies.
▪ Benchmarking – Compares existing performance to another internal or
external source, identifies issues not otherwise revealed through other
techniques.
 BASIC QUESTIONS TO ASK IN DEFINING THE PROBLEM
(REGARDLESS OF THE TECHNIQUE USED)

Who What Where

• Who is causing the problem? • What will happen if this problem • Where does this problem occur?
is not solved? • Where does this problem have an
• Who says this is a problem?
• What are the symptoms? impact?
• Who are impacted by this
• What are the impacts? • Etc.
problem?
• Etc.
• Etc.

When Why How

• Why is this problem occurring? • How should the process or system work?
• When does this problem occur?
• Why? • How are people currently handling the
• When did this problem first
• Why? problem?
start occurring?
• Etc. • Etc.
• Etc.
Issue Diagram is an effective method for breaking
down problems and FORMULATING HYPOTHESES
Hypothesis #1A

Key Questions #1C-a

Hypothesis #1B
Issue #1 Key Questions #1C-b
Hypothesis #1C
Key Questions #1C-c
Hypothesis #1D
Key Questions #1C-d
Problem Issue #2

Issue #3
KEY COMPONENTS OF ISSUE DIAGRAM

Questions which need to be answered or topics

Issues
which need to be explored

Speculative answers for issues that are phrased

Hypotheses as questions and/or areas of exploration for issue
phrased as topics

Questions that probe hypotheses and drive the

Key Questions
primary research required to solve the problem
 IDENTIFYING THE ISSUES
What key topics should
we explore to help the
team solve this problem?

Locate the Missing

Firearm
Issue #1 Can Brian help find it?

Problem Issue #2 Can Estong help find it?

Issue #3 Can Officer Gambala help find it?

 KEY TO IDENTIFYING ISSUES
1. Develop a comprehensive list of all possible issues related
to the problem
2. Reduce the comprehensive list by eliminating duplicates
and combining overlapping issues
3. Using consensus building, get down to a “major issues
list” (usually two to five issues)
 FORMULATING THE HYPOTHESES
Hypothesis #1A The relationship is broken
Kisha?
Issue #1 Hypothesis #1B

Etc.

Who Killed Geronimo

Hypothesis #2A
Geronimo? himself? What are some
possible answers to
Problem Issue #2 Hypothesis #2B
the issues?
Etc.

Marco? Hypothesis #3A Large amount of money

involved in a debt.
Issue #3 Hypothesis #3B

Etc.
FRAMING THE KEY QUESTIONS
Key Question #1A-a
Jealousy / Problems
Suicide? How did the
Hypothesis #1A Key Question #1A-b relationship
Issue #1 broke?
Hypothesis #1B Key Question #1A-c

Someone Killed Marco? Kisha?

Geronimo is DEAD. Him?
Hypothesis #2A
What questions need to be
Problem Issue #2 answered to prove/disprove
Hypothesis #2B the hypothesis?

Key Question #3A-a

No one is liable
An Accident?
Hypothesis #3A How may the accident
Key Question #3A-b
happened?
Issue #3
Hypothesis #3B Key Question #3A-c
 KEY LESSONS
▪ Issue diagrams provide a framework for brainstorming and
documenting the issues driving the problem and identifying the
facts (i.e. data) required to support conclusions and
recommended solutions.
▪ Hypotheses and the key questions will help shape data collection
requirements and ensure that only relevant data is collected.
▪ Formulation of hypotheses and key questions is an evolving
process – they will need to be revised as new insights and
discoveries are made.
BRAINSTORMING – A METHOD FOR IDENTIFYING
ISSUES AND FORMULATING HYPOTHESES
▪ Brainstorming is useful when there is a wide range of possible issues and
solutions
▪ Brainstorming is not appropriate for testing an idea; it is used to generate
ideas
▪ There are numerous brainstorming techniques, which include group
brainstorming, individual brainstorming, and storyboarding
▪ Individual brainstorming is usually not recommended unless time is too
tight, participants are rarely available, group is too large, etc.
▪ Brainstorming can be useful for Force Field Analysis – identifying all forces
impacting the problem.
 GETTING TO THE FACTS
▪ In order to answer the key questions and validate the hypotheses
(presented in the earlier steps), collection of factual information is
necessary
▪ First critical steps are to identify what information, i.e. data elements, is
required and develop a data collection approach/technique
▪ Depending on the type of problem being solved, different data-collection
techniques may be used
▪ Combining a number of different techniques allows looking at problems
from different perspectives
▪ Data collection is a critical stage in problem solving - if it is superficial,
biased or incomplete, data analysis will be difficult
USING THE ISSUE DIAGRAM TO IDENTIFY
DATA AND INFORMATION NEEDS

How did the • The Missing Gun

Key Question #1A-a
relationship • Suicide Note
broke? • Crime Scene
Hypothesis #1A Key Question #1A-b
Issue #1
Hypothesis #1B
• Testimonies of witnesses
What information or
Problem Issue #2
Hypothesis #2A Key Question #1A-c data needs to be
Hypothesis #2B

collected to answer
Hypothesis #3A
Key Question #3A-a these questions?
Issue #3

• Why the gun is missing?

Hypothesis #3B

Key Question #3A-b

How may the accident • Why was there jealousy?
happened?
Key Question #3A-c • Etc.
 DATA COLLECTION TECHNIQUES
Technique Description Tools

Using Available Using data that has already • Checklist

Information been collected by others • Data compilation forms

Systematically selecting, watching and recording • Eyes and ears

Observing behavior and characteristics of people, objects or events • Data compilation forms

Oral questioning of respondents, either individually • Interview guide

Interviewing • Data compilation forms
or as a group

Administering Written Collecting data based on answers provided by • Survey

Questionnaires respondents in written form • Questionnaire

Conducting Focus Facilitating free discussions on specific

• Flip charts
Groups topics with selected group of participants
IMPORTANCE OF COMBINING DIFFERENT DATA
COLLECTION TECHNIQUES
Qualitative Techniques Quantitative Techniques
(Flexible) (Less Flexible)
VS.
• Produce qualitative data that is often • Structured questionnaires designed to
recorded in narrative form quantify pre- or post-categorized
• Useful in answering the "why", "what", and answers to questions
"how" questions
• Useful in answering the "how many",
• Typically includes: "how often", "how significant", etc.
– Loosely structured interviews using questions
open-ended questions
• Answers to questions can be counted
– Focus group discussions
and expressed numerically
– Observations

A skillful use of a combination of qualitative and quantitative techniques will give a more
comprehensive understanding of the topic
 CONDUCTING THE ANALYSIS
• The next step in problem solving is to "make sense" of the
information collected in the previous step
• There is an abundance of analytical techniques that can be
applied for understanding:
What are the most important issues? Pareto Analysis

What performance areas are weak? Benchmarking

What are the core competencies of the

SWOT
subject/client?

What forces can influence the problem? Force Field Analysis

 SPECIFIC SEQUENTIAL STEPS THAT
LEAD UP TO THE ANALYSIS
1. Make sure you know what you are trying to solve – Clearly
defined issues or questions drive the analysis!
2. Match up the clearly defined question or issue with the
appropriate analytical tool(s)
3. Once you’ve matched up the analytical tools against the
question or issue, then go out and collect the facts
APPLY ANALYTICAL TOOLS AND MOVE
BACK UPSTREAM
1. Start with clearly defined issues or questions

How many are large 2. Select the Analytical Tool

enough to take on the
# of companies in
client's business?
industry
Key Question #1A-a

Revenues for last 5

Benchmarking
Hypothesis #1A Key Question #1A-b
Issue #1
Hypothesis #1B Key Question #1A-c
years

Hypothesis #2A What analysis needs to

Problem Issue #2
Hypothesis #2B be done to answer this
question?
Hypothesis #3A
Key Question #3A-a
Issue #3
Hypothesis #3B Key Question #3A-b
Age of employees 3. Collect required information per
Key Question #3A-c
the Analytical Tool selected
How many employees Employee interest level
are 50 years old or in retiring
older and interested
in retiring?
4. Once you complete your analysis, move back upstream
to answer the key question you started with
 ANALYTICAL TECHNIQUES
▪ Benchmarking – Compare and measure a process or activity against an internal or
external source
▪ SWOT Analysis – Assessment of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats
▪ Force Field Analysis – Overall environmental landscape and how it impacts the
subject
▪ Cost Benefit Analysis – Compare total equivalent costs (all the minuses) against
equivalent value in benefits (all the pluses)
▪ Impact Analysis – What if type analysis to assess the impact of change on an
agency
▪ Pareto Chart – Bar Chart for categorizing issues or other attributes in terms of
importance
 BENCHMARKING
▪ Measures and compares your performance against other similar activities
or processes internally or externally
▪ Differences indicate possible performance issues
▪ May be difficult to collect comparable measurement data
▪ Comparing “best in class” performance is better than comparing average
performance
▪ Best sources of data are in the private sector -Hays Benchmarking,
Benchmarking Exchange, The Benchmarking Exchange, etc.
 SWOT ANALYSIS
▪ Identifies Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats by asking:
What things are we good at, what things are we not good at, what things
might we do, and what things should we not do?
▪ Probably the most common analytical tool for strategic planning
▪ Somewhat subjective
▪ Easy to understand and follow
▪ Very useful for identifying the core competencies of any organization
 SWOT EXAMPLE
Internal Assessment of the organization, its people, services, competencies, etc.
Strengths Weaknesses
Client has a global infrastructure to Client has limited resources for
service all types of customers expanding its global reach
Services are in high demand in most Key processes are not very cost competitive
parts of the world when compared to other service providers

External Assessment of direct and indirect forces, social, economic, political, etc.
Opportunities Threats
Untapped demand exists in almost half Other clients are investing in newer
of the World technologies

New Technologies make it possible to Some clients are entering into strategic
expand service reach partnerships to expand their global
footprint
 FORCE FIELD
▪ Visually shows significant forces that impact the problem
▪ Forces tend to be those factors that promote or hinder a
solution to a problem
▪ Prioritize forces between direct (more important) and
indirect (less important)
▪ May need to brainstorm to generate ideas to list all forces
 FORCE FIELD EXAMPLE
Problem: Agency is not strategically focused
Positive Forces – Promotes the Solution
• Defense Department is promoting the Balanced
Scorecard
• Public Sector has mandates such as GPRA
• Lower level agencies have balanced scorecards in place
• Strategic planning is growing in importance within the
entire public sector
DIRECT – MORE IMPORTANT
Negative Forces – Inhibits the Solution
• Public Sector mandates lack enforcement
teeth – no major urgency to become
strategically focused.
• Agency is not resourced to develop strategic
plans and execute on non-strategic issues
• Agency has too many other change initiatives
going on
INDIRECT – LESS IMPORTANT
 COST BENEFIT
▪ Identify all expected costs and benefits to make sure the decision has
economic merit.
▪ Costs includes all tangible outlays (time, money, etc.) and intangible
/qualitative factors where you can assign some value
▪ Compare using a set of decision criteria – oranges to oranges, apples to
apples, etc.
▪ Look at the net changes between making the decision vs. not making the
decision
▪ Office of Management and Budget Guidelines on how to do cost benefit
analysis in the Public Sector.
 COST BENEFIT EXAMPLE
Choice A: Proposed Solution - Design and develop an on-line database system

The Costs (minuses) The Benefits (pluses)

• Software License Fees ▪ Consistent Reporting
• Upgrade network capacity ▪ Reduced Data Entry
• Database development time ▪ Much faster turnarounds when updating
• Training of end-users master records
• Requires regular maintenance ▪ Improved accuracy in reporting

Choice B: Do Nothing – Status Quo

• Software License Fees

Net Benefit =
• Maintenance Costs P 250,000
• Planned Upgrades
Change in Costs Choice A – B = P700,000 Change in Benefits Choice A – B = P950,000
 IMPACT ANALYSIS
▪ Identifies broad and diverse effects or outcomes associated with a
problem and/or the proposed solution
▪ Answers certain questions: How will this change impact our agency?
What are the consequences of not acting on the problem?
▪ Objective is to minimize adverse or negative impacts going forward
▪ Very useful in assessing risk of different proposed solutions – helps
you reach the right solution
▪ Numerous tools can be used to assess impacts

57 of 58
 IMPACT ANALYSIS TOOLS
▪ Scenario Playing – Storyboarding out how the future will unfold
between alternatives: Do Nothing vs. Solution
▪ Cost Benefit Analysis - Used to quantify impacts
▪ Decision Tree Analysis – Build a tree and assign probabilities to
each alternative to arrive at the most likely solution
▪ Simulation – Modeling a process and seeing how it changes when
one or more variables change
▪ Prototype Model – Build and test the solution on a small scale
before implementation to flush out lessons learned
 PARETO ANALYSIS
▪ Quantifies what is most important on a graph – 80 / 20 Rule
▪ Puts focus on the significant problems or issues
▪ Must group problems or issues based on a common and
measurable attribute (such as reworks, errors, downtime, hours,
etc.) = Left Vertical Axis of Bar Chart
▪ Must categorize problems or issues – what type is it? (poor
quality, long wait times, etc.) = Right Horizontal Axis of Bar Chart
▪ Plot the data and rank according to frequency – descending order
from left to right
# of Employees, etc.
Downtime, Errors, PARETO CHART

Causes, Products, Mfg. Lines, Operators

Categories Machines, Defect Types, etc.
 KEY LESSONS & SUMMARY
▪ Don’t rush out and collect information until • Analytical Thinking
you know what analytical tools you need to follows the Scientific
use – each tool has its own information needs Approach
▪ Use a combination of tools to cover all the • Five Step Process:
bases - Define the Problem
▪ All decisions involve some assumptions – so - Test in the form of
you will never have all the facts Hypothesis
▪ Analysis is a discover driven process, it moves - Focus on Facts
incrementally in baby steps – you learn, - Analysis (Various
adjust and go through numerous iterations Analytical Tools)
until you have insights; i.e. you can now take
action on the issue or problem - Recommend a Solution
COGNITIVE BIASES
CRIME
ANALYSIS
2020 EDITION
 THE BEGINNING OF WISDOM IS DEFINITION OF TERMS!
- SOCRATES

▪ COGNITIVE BIAS is a type of error in thinking that occurs when people are
processing and interpreting information in the world around them.
▪ They are often a result of our attempt to simplify information processing.
▪ They are rules of thumb that help us make sense of the world and reach
decisions with relative speed.
▪ Unfortunately, these biases sometimes trip us up, leading to POOR
DECISIONS and BAD JUDGMENTS.
 CONCEPT OF COGNITIVE BIAS
▪ While making judgments and decisions about the world around us, we like
to think that we are Objective, Logical, and Capable of taking in and
evaluating all the information that is available to us.
▪ The reality is that our judgments and decisions are often riddled with
errors and influenced by a wide variety of biases.
▪ The human brain is both remarkable and powerful, but certainly subject to
limitations.
A. SOCIAL BIASES
B. MEMORY BIASES
C. DECISION MAKING BIASES
D. PROBABILITY/BELIEF BIASES
 TEN COMMON COGNITIVE BIASES
▪ CONFIRMATION BIAS ▪ FALSE CONSENSUS
▪ HINDSIGHT BIAS EFFECT
▪ ANCHORING BIAS ▪ HALO EFFECT
▪ MISINFORMATION ▪ SELF SERVING BIAS
EFFECT ▪ AVAILABILITY HEURISTIC
▪ ACTOR OBSERVER BIAS ▪ OPTIMISM BIAS
 CONFIRMATION BIAS
• We tend to listen more to information that
confirms the beliefs we already have rather
than listening to the opposing side and
consider all the facts in a logical and
rational manner we tend simply to look for
things that reinforce what they already
think is true.
• In many cases, people on two sides of an
issue can listen to the same story, and each
will walk away with a different
interpretation that they feel validates their
existing point of view as often happens in
political debates.
• Confirmation biases impact how
people gather information, but
they also influence how people
interpret and recall information.
• E.g. people who support or
oppose a particular issue will
not only seek information
that supports their beliefs,
they will also interpret news
stories in a way that upholds
their existing ideas and
remember things in a way
that also reinforces these
attitudes.
 THE HINDSIGHT BIAS
• It’s a bias that involves the tendency • It involves the tendency people have
to see events, even random ones, as to assume that they knew the
more predictable than they are. outcome of an event after the
• This tendency to look back on outcome has already been
events and believe that we “knew it determined. For example, after
all along”. For example, following attending a basketball game, you
exams, students often look back on might insist that you knew that the
questions and think “Of course! I winning team was going to win
knew that!” even though they beforehand.
missed it the first time around.
 ANCHORING BIAS
We also tend to be overly influenced by the first piece of
information that we hear, a phenomenon referred to as the
anchoring bias or anchoring effect. For example, the first number
voiced during a price negotiation typically becomes the anchoring
point from which all further negotiations are based. Or such that a
investigator can become susceptible to the anchoring bias when
investigating a case. The investigator’s first impressions of the case
often create an anchoring point that can sometimes incorrectly
influence all subsequent actions and or directions.
 MISINFORMATION EFFECT
• Our memories of particular events tend to be heavily influenced
by things that happened after the actual event itself, a
phenomenon known as the misinformation effect.
• A person who witnesses a car accident or crime might believe
that their recollection is crystal clear, but researchers have found
that memory is surprisingly susceptible to even very subtle
influences.
People are Influenced by -
• News Reports: Reading news stories and watching television reports of
an accident or event can also contribute to the misinformation effect.
People often forget the original source of information, which means that
they might mistakenly believe that a piece of information was something
they observed personally when really it was something they heard in a
post-event news report.
• Repeated Exposure to Misinformation: The more often people are
exposed to misleading information, the more likely they are to
incorrectly believe that the misinformation was part of the original
event.
• Time: If misleading information is presented some time after
the original memory, it is likely to be much more accessible in
memory. This means that the misleading information is much
easier to retrieve, effectively blocking the retrieval of the
original, correct information.

• Discussing the Event with Other Witnesses: Talking to other

witnesses following an event can distort the original memory of
what really happened. The reports given by other witnesses
might conflict with the original memory, and this new
information might reshape or distort the witness's original
memory of events as they occurred.
 ACTOR OBSERVER BIAS
• The way we perceive others and how we attribute their actions
hinges on a variety of variables, but it can be heavily influenced by
whether we are the actor or the observer in a situation. When it
comes to our own actions, we are often far too likely to attribute
things to external influences.
• You might complain that you failed an exam because the teacher
posed too many trick questions. When it comes to explaining
other people’s actions, however, we are far more likely to attribute
their behaviors to internal causes.
 FALSE-CONSENSUS EFFECT
• People have a tendency to overestimate how much other people agree with
their own beliefs, behaviors, attitudes, and values. This can lead people not
only to incorrectly think that everyone else agrees with them – it can
sometimes lead them to overvalue their own opinions.
• Researchers believe that the false consensus effect happens for a variety of
reasons.
• First, the people we spend the most time with, our family and friends, do
often tend to share very similar opinions and beliefs. Because of this, we
start to think that this way of thinking is the majority opinion.
• Another key reason this cognitive bias trips us up so easily is that believing
that other people are just like us is good for our self-esteem.
• It allows us to feel "normal" and maintain a positive view of ourselves in
relation to others
 THE HALO EFFECT
• The tendency for our initial impression of a person to influence what
we think of them. This cognitive bias can have a powerful impact in the
real world.
• For example, job applicants perceived as attractive and likable are also
more liable to be viewed as competent, smart, and qualified for the
job.
• Essentially, your overall impression of a person ("He is nice!") impacts
your evaluations of that person's specific traits ("He is also smart!").
• Since we perceive CELEBRITIES as attractive, successful, and often
likeable, we also tend to see them as intelligent, kind, and funny.
 SELF-SERVING BIAS
• The self-serving bias refers to our tendency to take personal credit
for success while blaming outside sources for our failures.
• When you do well on a project, you probably assume that it’s
because you worked hard. But when things turn out badly, you are
more likely to blame it on circumstances or bad luck.
• Essentially, we tend to believe that our successes are due to
internal traits and talents, while our failures are caused by
variables outside of our control.
 AVAILABILITY HEURISTIC
• The tendency to estimate the probability of something happening based on
how many examples readily come to mind.
• Availability heuristic is a mental shortcut that relies on immediate examples
that come to mind.
• When you are trying to make a decision, a number of related events or
situations might immediately spring to the forefront of your thoughts. As a
result, you might judge that those events are more frequent and possible
than others. You give greater credence to this information and tend to
overestimate the probability and likelihood of similar things happening in
the future.
 THE OPTIMISM BIAS
• We tend to be too optimistic for our own good. We overestimate the
likelihood that good things will happen to us while underestimating the
probability that negative events will impact our lives. We assume that
events like divorce, job loss, illness, and death happen to other people.
• The bad news is that research has found that this optimism bias is
incredibly difficult to reduce. There is good news, however. This tendency
toward optimism helps create a sense of anticipation for the future, giving
people the hope and motivation they need to pursue their goals. So while
cognitive biases can distort our thinking and sometimes lead to poor
decisions, they are not always so bad.
 SUMMARY/KEY LESSONS
• COGNITIVE BIASES can be caused by a number of different things.
• Heuristics, or mental shortcuts, can often lead to such errors.
• Social pressures,
• Individual motivations,
• Emotions, and
• Limits on the mind's ability to process information can also contribute to
these biases.
• BUT, these BIASES are not necessarily all bad.
• Psychologists believe that many of these biases serve an adaptive purpose
- they allow us to reach decisions quickly.
• This can be vital if we are facing a dangerous or threatening situation.