2018 5th International Conference on Electrical and Electronics Engineering
Electrical Distribution Network’s Failure Analysis Based on Weather Conditions
Mustafa Konal
Electronics & Telecommunication Eng. Dept., Namık
Kemal University, Tekirdağ, Turkey
mkonal@nku.edu.tr
Cengiz Polat Uzunoğlu
Electrical & Electronics Eng. Dept., Istanbul University,
Istanbul, Turkey
polat@istanbul.edu.tr
Abstract—The failure detection and response time for failures
in electrical distribution networks are key elements for proper
power management in distribution companies. The reliability
of electrical distribution is strictly related with weather
conditions especially in overhead lines. Severe weather
conditions can rapidly increase failure rates in distribution
networks where company responses for failures may delayed
consequently. In this study, electrical distribution network
statistics of Bedaş Company for Gaziosmanpaşa district which
contains highest overhead line population in Istanbul are
investigated. These statistics are collected from failure
management system in Bedaş Distribution Company between
2014 and 2016. Especially electrical connector and oxidation
failure rates are analyzed for different weather conditions.
These statistics are compared with first four months of year
2017 which exhibit severe weather conditions and heavy falls.
This study reveals the relationship between different weather
conditions and failures in electrical distribution network which
can be utilized for predictive management for distribution
companies in terms of failure elimination and quick failure
response.
Keywords-electrical distribution; electricical failure; weather;
distibution company
I. INTRODUCTION
Nowadays power distribution companies are mainly
focusing on reliability of electric distribution management
and related services due to accelerated demands from clients.
To increase reliability of the system the effective assessment
of estimations on gathered system data is essential [1].
Distribution system failure data contains a number of inputs
such as failure time, failure duration, faulty component,
failure location, weather condition and etc. The outage time
and failure rates are strictly connected with these parameters
[2]. Various studies have been introduced for estimating
failure rates in distribution networks [3-8].
The weather has dominant role on the proper operation of
an electrical distribution networks especially in overhead line
(most vulnerable part of the distribution network) operated
networks [9-13]. Electrical circuits are prone to mechanical
stresses which are originated in adverse weather conditions.
978-1-5386-6392-9/18/$31.00 ©2018 IEEE
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İsmail Öz
Electrical & Electronics Eng. Dept., Istanbul University,
Istanbul, Turkey
smailoz@gmail.com
Fırat Kaçar
Electrical & Electronics Eng. Dept., Istanbul University,
Istanbul, Turkey
fkacar@istanbul.edu.tr
Increasing failure rates in distribution networks may result in
total power outages and hence reduced reliability [14]. Most
of the studies have analyzed the relationship between outages
and extreme weather conditions such as storm, hurricane etc.
[15-18].
In this study power outage and failure statistics of Bedaş
Company assigned for power distribution in Istanbul are
analyzed. These statistics contain multiple inputs which are
related with failure feedbacks obtained from call centers.
Monthly failure rates are analyzed for different districts and
results have revealed that Gaziosmanpaşa district is the most
weather effected zone in which overhead line percentage is
approximately 40% (surpassing other zones in terms of
overhead line dependency).
These statistics are evaluated for years between 2014 and
2016 for different weather conditions. Monthly failure
densities, station based failures, erroneous component
statistics weather based failure rates are investigated and
relation between weather and failure possibility is underlined.
In addition, first three months of 2017 statistics are analyzed
and compared with former year’s average statistics.
This paper is organized as follows. In section 2, the
power outage rates are analyzed for mentioned years. In
section 3 types of failures in terms of stations and electrical
components are investigated. In section 4, the relationship
between weather conditions and failures is emphasized.
Finally, in section 5, the conclusion is given.
II. POWER OUTAGE RATES
Modern devices and equipment are substantially
dependent on electricity. Power outages should be monitored
constantly and corresponding measures should be taken by
Distribution Company [10]. Bedaş Distribution Company is
the official electrical management company in Istanbul.
According to Bedaş records failure and outage statistics are
investigated.
The monthly average outage rates are given in Fig. 1
between 2014 and 2016. Based on readings total outage
numbers are 97500 (2014), 86519 (2015) and 93873 (2016)
respectively for Istanbul. The average outage rates are
considerably decreased in summer time especially for 2016.
269

Figure 1. Monthly average outage statistics of Istanbul.
Failure rates are classified for districts of Istanbul.
Classification have revealed that failure rates of
Gaziosmanpaşa district dominated other districts. With the
considerable overhead line connections (approximately 40%)
Gaziosmanpaşa district is taken into consideration for further
investigations which is vulnerable to weather changes. The
failure rates of Istanbul districts are shown in Fig. 2.
Figure 2. Monthly average outage statistics of Istanbul.
The monthly average failure rates for Gaziosmanpaşa are
given in Fig. 3. Total failure based outage numbers are
measured as 12207 (2014), 10486 (2015) and 11536 (2016)
respectively for Gaziosmanpaşa. As expected, average
failure rates are considerable decreased in summer time.
Figure 3. Monthly average outage statistics of Gaziosmanpaşa.
III. TYPES OF FAILURES
Considering electrical network configuration location
based failure analysis is conducted. The distribution network
is mainly composed of transformer stations, medium voltage
lines, low voltage lines and feeder lines which are critical
since they connect main distribution lines and end users. The
failure location versus outage numbers for Gaziosmanpaşa
district is given in Table I.
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TABLE I. FAILURE LOCATIONS VS. NUMBER OF FAILURES
FAILURE LOCATION/
2014 2015 2016
NUMBER OF FAILURES
MEDIUM VOLTAGE LINES 728 884 974
TRANSFORMER STATIONS 332 535 447
LOW VOLTAGE LINES 2.016 2.203 2.532
FEEDER LINES 9.131 6.864 7.583
As seen from Table I the most of the failures are
observed on feeder lines since they contain connectors which
exhibit easy oxidation characteristics under humidity
conditions. During the investigations failure types are
classified for feeder lines. Most common failure types and
percentages observed on feeder lines are shown in Fig. 4.
Figure 4. Observed failure types and percentages for feeder lines in
Gaziosmanpaşa.
Various types of failures have been detected especially
on feeder lines. In overhead distribution, pole and
distribution cable interactions take place where possible
failures may occur. A number of junction boxes are required
in the distribution network to connect power cables. These
junction boxes are prone to leading failures. For the cable
connections, switchgears are significant elements for
electrical networks in switching operations of the line
properly. Above all, oxidation based connector failure is the
most important and common failure type of the feeder line
where overhead distribution (such as Gaziosmanpaşa) is
substantial. Connectors are vulnerable to weather conditions
in which failure process is accelerated by rainfall. As
underlined in Fig. 4 the most common failure is the
connector failure. In addition, unclassified failures are
labelled as others.
IV. FAILURE DEPENDENCIES ON WEATHER CONDITIONS
As mentioned previous chapters, weather dependency of
overhead lines is much more than the underground lines.
Based on the detailed analysis, weather dependency of feeder
lines in Gaziosmanpaşa are investigated in terms of
mentioned failures. The weather condition is reduced into
two modes such as clear (including sunny, foggy and cloudy)
and rainy (including rainfall, snowfall and windy) weather.
The weather dependency of cable-junction box failure rates
in Gaziosmanpaşa district is given in Fig. 5.
 Figure 5. Weather dependency of cable-junction box failure rates in
Gaziosmanpaşa district.
The cable-junction box failure occupies small percentage
in total failure rates. This failure type is observed constantly
over year and hence results revealed that cable-junction box
failure is mainly not related with weather conditions. The
weather dependency of pole-cable failure rates in
Gaziosmanpaşa district is given in Fig. 6.
Figure 8. Monthly average connector oxidation failure rates of feeder
lines in Gaziosmanpaşa district.
The connector oxidation failure rates are considerably
decreased in July (relatively clear weather). Besides the
failure rates are increased approximately 10% in rainy
weather. Most of the months of the year clear weather
average is more than rainy weather. According to Fig. 8, it is
obvious that connector oxidation failure rates are accelerated
in rainy weather. The connector oxidation failure rate of
clear weather is only superior in July which is considerably
dry season. The average failure rates of the first four months
of three-year period (2014-2016) are given in Fig. 9.

Figure 6. Weather dependency of pole-cable failure rates in

Gaziosmanpaşa district.

As the cable-junction box failure rates the pole-cable

failure rates are considerably insignificant in contrast to
connector oxidation failure rates. Throughout the year the
percentage of clear weather is much more than rainy weather
in Gaziosmanpaşa. Accordingly, the pole-cable and cable-
junction box failures exhibit similar rates over a year. The
failure rates are identified by the number of rainy and clear
weather. In other word these type of failures independent
from weather conditions. The weather dependency of
connector oxidation failure rates in Gaziosmanpaşa district is
given in Fig. 7.

Figure 9. Average connector oxidation failure rates of the first four

months of three-year period (2014-2016).

Figure 7. Weather dependency of connector oxidation failure rates in

Gaziosmanpaşa district.

Aside from pole-cable and cable-junction box failures,

the connector oxidation failure rates are strictly connected
with weather. According to investigations connector
oxidation failure of feeder lines are highly effected by
weather conditions. Approximately 30% (59.7% in clear
weather and 90.32% in rainy weather) difference is observed
between rainy and clear weather in average in terms of
connector failures. These percentages are calculated for
connector oxidation failures versus total number of failures.
In addition to year based analysis, the (for three years)
monthly averages of connector oxidation failures are Figure 10. Average connector oxidation failure rates of the first four
analyzed and given in Fig. 8. months of the year 2017.

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 In order to compare and validate results, the average
failure rates of the first four months of the year 2017 are
analyzed and given in Fig. 10. The average results are in
harmony for connector oxidation failures in feeder lines.
Approximately 10% difference is observed between rainy
and clear weather. These results exhibit close trends for
similar time durations. The first four months of the year 2017
is noted by heavily rainfall rates in which connector
oxidation failure rates are expected to increase.
V. CONCLUSION
In order to maintain proper operation of distribution
networks, failures and hence outages should be examined
and monitored by distribution companies. In addition to
internal effects, external effects such as overvoltages,
environmental effects and weather conditions play
significant role in failure occurrence in electrical networks.
In this study, a detailed failure analysis is conducted for
Gaziosmanpaşa district which is accepted as most weather
dependent district due to overhead line population. In recent
years, majority of the distribution networks of the Istanbul
are transformed into underground lines. Based on Bedaş
distribution company statistics investigations are conducted.
Overhead lines are easily effected by weather conditions
rather than underground cables. During these investigations,
connector oxidation failures are notified as the most
observed failures on feeder lines. The pole-cable and cable-
junction box failures exhibit similar rates over a year and
hence these type of failures are independent from weather
conditions. The connector oxidation failure type is strictly
related with weather conditions. The weather is classified
into two modes clear and rainy in general. According to
results, year based analysis have revealed that connector
oxidation rates are quite dependent on weather status.
Approximately 30% difference is noted in statistics for rainy
and clear weather. Month based analysis quite distinctive for
investigation of wet season (winter) and dry season
(summer). As expected, failure rates are decreased in
summer and increased in winter. These failure statistics are
important indicators which can be utilized for failure
predictions for different weather conditions. Failure
estimations based on weather conditions may be used for
online monitoring systems and distribution management
systems. Distribution management systems may harvest
these statistics for failure assessment strategy in terms of
early intervention on failures.
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