‫ﻓﻬﻢ ﺻﻨﻊ اﻟﻘﺮار‬

‫ﰲ اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ اﳋﺎرﺟﻴﺔ‬
 This is an authorized translation of Understanding Foreign Policy
Decision Making, by Alex Mintz and Karl DeRouen Jr., and published in
2010 by Cambridge University Press, New York, NY, USA. The ECSSR is
indebted to the authors and publisher for permitting the translation,
publication and distribution of this work under its name.

‫ﳏﺘﻮ￯ اﻟﻜﺘﺎب ﻻ ﻳﻌﱪ ﺑﺎﻟﻀـﺮﻭرة ﻋﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ اﳌﺮﻛﺰ‬

ٰ
‫ﻟﻠﻄﺒﻌﺔ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬
2016 ‫© ﻣﺮﻛﺰ اﻹﻣﺎرات ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺎت ﻭاﻟﺒﺤﻮث اﻻﺳﱰاﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ‬
‫ﲨﻴﻊ اﳊﻘﻮﻕ ﳏﻔﻮﻇﺔ‬
2016 ‫اﻟﻄﺒﻌﺔ اﻷﻭﱃ‬

ISBN 978-9948-13-605-7 ‫اﻟﻨﺴﺨـــﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻳـــﺔ‬

ISBN 978-9948-13-606-4 ‫اﻟﻨﺴﺨـﺔ اﻹﻟﻜﱰﻭﻧﻴﺔ‬

:‫ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﲨﻴﻊ اﳌﺮاﺳﻼت إﱃ اﻟﻌﻨﻮاﻥ اﻵﰐ‬

‫ﻣﺮﻛﺰ اﻹﻣﺎرات ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺎت ﻭاﻟﺒﺤﻮث اﻻﺳﱰاﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ‬

4567 :‫ ب‬.‫ص‬
‫أﺑﻮﻇﺒﻲ ـ دﻭﻟﺔ اﻹﻣﺎرات اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ اﳌﺘﺤﺪة‬
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‫‪í{{{éréi]†{j‰÷]<pç{{vfÖ]æ<l^{{{‰]…‚{×Ö<l]…^{{Úý]<ˆ{{{Ò†Ú‬‬
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‫<<‬
‫<<‬ ‫‪79‬‬ ‫‪<<í¶Ú<l^‰]…‬‬
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‫ﻓﻬﻢ ﺻﻨﻊ اﻟﻘﺮار‬
‫ﰲ اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ اﳋﺎرﺟﻴﺔ‬
‫‪ ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
‫أﻟﻴﻜﺲ ﻣﻴﻨﺘﺲ ﻭﻛﺎرﻝ دﻱ رﻭﻳﻦ اﻻﺑﻦ‬
 ‫<<‬
‫<<‬
‫‪< <í{éréi]‰÷]<pç{vfÖ]æ<l^{‰]…‚×Ö<l]…^{Úý]<ˆ{Ò†Ú‬‬

‫أﻧﺸــﺊ ﻣﺮﻛــﺰ اﻹﻣــﺎرات ﻟﻠﺪراﺳــﺎت ﻭاﻟﺒﺤــﻮث اﻻﺳــﱰاﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﰲ ‪14‬‬

‫آذار‪/‬ﻣﺎرس ‪ ;1994‬ﲠﺪﻑ إﻋﺪاد اﻟﺒﺤﻮث ﻭاﻟﺪراﺳﺎت اﻷﻛﺎدﻳﻤﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﻀﺎﻳﺎ‬
‫اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻭاﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ ﻭاﻻﺟﺘﲈﻋﻴﺔ اﳌﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﺪﻭﻟﺔ اﻹﻣﺎرات اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ اﳌﺘﺤﺪة‬
‫ﻭﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ اﳋﻠﻴﺞ ﻭاﻟﻌﺎﱂ اﻟﻌﺮﰊ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﺴﻌﻰ اﳌﺮﻛﺰ ﻟﺘﻮﻓﲑ اﻟﻮﺳﻂ اﳌﻼﺋـﻢ ﻟﺘﺒـﺎدﻝ‬
‫اﻵراء اﻟﻌﻠﻤﻴﺔ ﺣﻮﻝ ﻫﺬﻩ اﳌﻮﺿـﻮﻋﺎت‪ ,‬ﻣـﻦ ﺧـﻼﻝ ﻗﻴﺎﻣـﻪ ﺑﻨﺸــﺮ اﻟﻜﺘـﺐ‬
‫ﻭاﻟﺒﺤﻮث ﻭﻋﻘﺪ اﳌﺆﲤﺮات ﻭاﻟﻨﺪﻭات‪ .‬ﻛﲈ ﻳﺄﻣﻞ ﻣﺮﻛﺰ اﻹﻣﺎرات ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺎت‬
‫ﻭاﻟﺒﺤﻮث اﻻﺳﱰاﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ أﻥ ﻳﺴﻬﻢ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻓﻌﺎﻝ ﰲ دﻓﻊ اﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴـﺔ اﻟﺘﻨﻤﻮﻳـﺔ ﰲ‬
‫دﻭﻟﺔ اﻹﻣﺎرات اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ اﳌﺘﺤﺪة‪.‬‬

‫ﻳﻌﻤﻞ اﳌﺮﻛﺰ ﰲ إﻃﺎر ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﳎﺎﻻت ﻫﻲ ﳎـﺎﻝ اﻟﺒﺤـﻮث ﻭاﻟﺪراﺳـﺎت‪,‬‬

‫ﻭﳎﺎﻝ إﻋﺪاد اﻟﻜﻮادر اﻟﺒﺤﺜﻴﺔ ﻭﺗﺪرﻳﺒﻬﺎ‪ ,‬ﻭﳎﺎﻝ ﺧﺪﻣﺔ اﳌﺠﺘﻤﻊ‪ ,‬ﻭذﻟـﻚ ﻣـﻦ‬
‫أﺟﻞ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ أﻫﺪاﻓﻪ اﳌﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﰲ ﺗﺸﺠﻴﻊ اﻟﺒﺤﺚ اﻟﻌﻠﻤـﻲ اﻟﻨـﺎﺑﻊ ﻣـﻦ ﺗﻄﻠﻌـﺎت‬
‫اﳌﺠﺘﻤـﻊ ﻭاﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺗﻪ‪ ,‬ﻭﺗﻨﻈﻴـﻢ اﳌﻠﺘﻘﻴﺎت اﻟﻔﻜﺮﻳــﺔ‪ ,‬ﻭﻣﺘﺎﺑﻌــﺔ اﻟﺘﻄــﻮرات‬
‫اﻟﻌﻠﻤﻴـﺔ ﻭدراﺳـﺔ اﻧﻌﻜﺎﺳـﺎﲥﺎ‪ ,‬ﻭإﻋــﺪاد اﻟﺪراﺳـﺎت اﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴــﺔ‪ ,‬ﻭﺗﺒﻨــﻲ‬
‫اﻟﱪاﻣـﺞ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺪﻋـﻢ ﺗﻄﻮﻳـﺮ اﻟﻜﻮادر اﻟﺒﺤﺜﻴـﺔ اﳌﻮاﻃﻨـﺔ‪ ,‬ﻭاﻻﻫـﺘﲈﻡ ﺑﺠﻤـﻊ‬
‫اﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎت ﻭاﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻭﺗﻮﺛﻴﻘﻬﺎ ﻭﲣﺰﻳﻨﻬﺎ ﻭﲢﻠﻴﻠﻬﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﺮﻕ اﻟﻌﻠﻤﻴـﺔ اﳊﺪﻳﺜـﺔ‪,‬‬
‫ﻭاﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﻣﻊ أﺟﻬـﺰة اﻟﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﻭﻣﺆﺳﺴـﺎﲥﺎ اﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔـﺔ ﰲ ﳎـﺎﻻت اﻟﺪراﺳـﺎت‬
‫ﻭاﻟﺒﺤﻮث اﻟﻌﻠﻤﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
 ‫اﳌﺤﺘـﻮﻳـﺎت‬

‫اﻟﻘﺴﻢ اﻷﻭﻝ‪ :‬ﻣﻘﺪﻣـــﺔ‬

‫اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻷﻭﻝ‪ :‬ﳌﺎذا ﻧﺪرس اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ اﳋﺎرﺟﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﺻﻨﻊ اﻟﻘﺮار? ‪9.......................................‬‬

‫اﻟﻘﺴﻢ اﻟﺜﺎﲏ‪ :‬ﺑﻴﺌﺔ ﺻﻨﻊ اﻟﻘﺮار‬

‫اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺜﺎﲏ‪ :‬أﻧﲈط اﻟﻘﺮارات ﻭﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎت‬

‫اﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﰲ ﺻﻨﻊ ﻗﺮارات اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ اﳋﺎرﺟﻴﺔ‪27 ............................................................................................‬‬

‫اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ‪ :‬اﻟﺘﺤﻴﺰات‪/‬اﳌﻴﻮﻝ ﰲ ﺻﻨﻊ اﻟﻘﺮار ‪65 ................................................................................‬‬

‫اﻟﻘﺴﻢ اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ‪ :‬ﻧﲈذج ﺻﻨﻊ اﻟﻘﺮار‬

‫اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺮاﺑﻊ‪ :‬ﻧﻤﻮذج اﻟﻔﺎﻋﻞ اﻟﻌﻘﻼﲏ ‪95 .....................................................................................................‬‬

‫اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﳋﺎﻣﺲ‪ :‬ﺑﺪاﺋﻞ ﻟﻨﻤﻮذج اﻟﻔﺎﻋﻞ اﻟﻌﻘﻼﲏ ‪113 .............................................................................‬‬

‫اﻟﻘﺴﻢ اﻟﺮاﺑﻊ‪ :‬ﳏﺪدات ﺻﻨﻊ اﻟﻘﺮار ﰲ اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ اﳋﺎرﺟﻴﺔ‬

‫اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺴﺎدس‪ :‬اﻟﻌﻮاﻣﻞ اﻟﺴﻴﻜﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺔ اﳌﺆﺛﺮة ﰲ ﻗﺮارات اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ اﳋﺎرﺟﻴﺔ ‪157 .................‬‬

‫اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻊ‪ :‬اﻟﻌﻮاﻣﻞ اﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻭاﳌﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻭاﻟﺜﻘﺎﻓﻴﺔ اﳌﺆﺛﺮة ﰲ ﺻﻨﻊ ﻗﺮارات‬

‫اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ اﳋﺎرﺟﻴﺔ ‪199 .............................................................................................................................................‬‬

 ‫اﻟﻘﺴﻢ اﳋﺎﻣﺲ‪ :‬ﺗﺴﻮﻳﻖ اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ اﳋﺎرﺟﻴﺔ‬

‫اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺜﺎﻣﻦ‪ :‬ﺗﺄﺛﲑات اﻟﺼﻴﺎﻏﺔ ﻭاﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻖ‬

‫ﻭﻭﺳﺎﺋﻞ اﻹﻋﻼﻡ ﰲ ﺻﻨﻊ ﻗﺮارات اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ اﳋﺎرﺟﻴﺔ ‪245 ......................................................................‬‬

‫اﻟﻘﺴﻢ اﻟﺴﺎدس‪ :‬ﺧﺎﲤــﺔ اﻟﻜﺘﺎب‬

‫اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺘﺎﺳﻊ‪ :‬اﳋﺎﲤــﺔ‪277.................................................................................................................................................‬‬

‫اﳌﻠﺤﻖ‪ :‬ﳏﺎﻛﺎة ﻭﲤﺮﻳﻦ ﻋﲆ ﺻﻨﻊ اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ اﳋﺎرﺟﻴﺔ ‪289 .........................................................................‬‬

‫اﳌﺮاﺟﻊ ‪291 ...................................................................................................................................................................‬‬

‫ﻧﺒﺬة ﻋﻦ اﳌﺆﻟ ﹶﻔﲔ ‪315 .................................................................................................................................................‬‬

‫اﻟﻘﺴﻢ اﻷﻭﻝ‬

‫ﻣﻘﺪﻣـﺔ‬
 ‫اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻷﻭﻝ‬

‫ﳌﺎذا ﻧﺪرس اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ اﳋﺎرﺟﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﺻﻨﻊ اﻟﻘﺮار?‬

‫ﺗﺘﻨﻮع ﺧﻴﺎرات اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ اﳋﺎرﺟﻴـﺔ ﻣـﻦ اﳉﺬرﻳـﺔ )اﻟﺪراﻣﺎﺗﻴﻜﻴـﺔ( إﱃ اﻟﻌﺎدﻳـﺔ اﳌﻤ ﹼﻠـﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻳﺘﺨﺬ اﻟﻘﺎدة ﻗﺮارات ﳋﻮض اﳊـﺮب‪ ,‬أﻭ ﺻـﻨﻊ اﻟﺴـﻼﻡ‪ ,‬أﻭ ﺗﺸـﻜﻴﻞ أﺣـﻼﻑ‪ ,‬أﻭ إﻗﺎﻣـﺔ‬
‫ﻋﻼﻗﺎت دﺑﻠﻮﻣﺎﺳﻴﺔ‪ ,‬أﻭ ﺗﻄﺒﻴـﻖ ﻣﻮﻗـﻒ ﻣﻌـﲔ ﺑﺸـﺄﻥ ﺣﻈـﺮ اﻻﻧﺘﺸـﺎر اﻟﻨـﻮﻭﻱ‪ ,‬أﻭ ﻓـﺮض‬
‫ﻋﻘﻮﺑﺎت اﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ‪ ,‬أﻭ اﻟﺘﺼﺪﻳﻖ ﻋـﲆ اﻻﺗﻔﺎﻗﻴـﺎت اﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴـﺔ اﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴـﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﺘﻤﺤـﻮر اﻫـﺘﲈﻡ ﻫـﺬا‬
‫اﻟﻜﺘﺎب ﺣﻮﻝ ﻫﺬﻩ اﻟﺘﺸﻜﻴﻠﺔ اﻟﻮاﺳﻌﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﺮارات‪.‬‬

‫ﻧﺘﻨﺎﻭﻝ ﻫﺬا اﳌﻮﺿﻮع ﻣﻦ زﻭاﻳﺎ ﻣﺘﻌﺪدة‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺑﲔ اﻷﺷـﻴﺎء اﻟﺘـﻲ ﻧﻀـﻌﻬﺎ ﰲ اﻻﻋﺘﺒـﺎر‪:‬‬
‫ﻧﻤـﻂ اﻟﻘــﺮار )ﺑﺨﻄﻮة ﻭاﺣﺪة‪ ,‬أﻭ ﺗﺴﻠﺴﲇ‪ ,‬أﻭ ﺗﻔﺎﻋﲇ‪ ,‬أﻭ ﲨﺎﻋﻲ(‪ ,‬ﻭﻣﺴـﺘﻮ￯ اﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴـﻞ ﰲ‬
‫ﺻﻨﻊ ﻗﺮارات اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ اﳋﺎرﺟﻴﺔ )أﺣﺎدﻱ اﻟﻄﺮﻑ‪ ,‬أﻭ ﲨﺎﻋﻲ‪ ,‬أﻭ ﻋﱪ ﲢﺎﻟﻒ(‪ ,‬ﻭاﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴـﺎت‬
‫ﻭاﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺆدﻱ إﱃ اﻟﻘﺮار‪ ,‬ﻭاﻟﺘﺤﻴﺰات‪/‬اﳌﻴﻮﻝ ﻭاﻷﺧﻄﺎء‪ .‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﻄﺒﻊ ﻧﻨـﺎﻗﺶ ﻧـﲈذج‬
‫اﻟﺴــﱪﻧﻄﻴﻘﻲ*‪,‬‬
‫ﺻــﻨﻊ اﻟﻘــﺮار )اﻟﻔﺎﻋــﻞ اﻟﻌﻘــﻼﲏ ‪ ,rational actor model‬ﻭاﻟﻨﻤــﻮذج ﱢ‬
‫ﻭاﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ اﻟﺒﲑﻭﻗﺮاﻃﻴﺔ ‪ ,bureaucratic politics‬ﻭاﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ اﳌﺆﺳﺴـﺎﺗﻴﺔ ‪organizational‬‬
‫‪ ,politics‬ﻭاﻟﻨﻈﺮﻳﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﻃﻮرﻫﺎ أﻟﻴﻜﺲ ﻣﻴﻨﺘﺲ ﺣﻮﻝ اﲣﺎذ اﻟﻘﺮار ﻋﲆ ﻣـﺮﺣﻠﺘﲔ ﺑﺎﺳـﺘﺒﻌﺎد‬
‫ﻏــﲑ اﳌﻘﺒــﻮﻝ أﻭﻻﹰ ‪ ,poliheuristic theory‬ﻭﻧﻈﺮﻳــﺔ اﳌﻨﻈــﻮر اﻻﺣﺘﲈﱄ‪/‬ﲡﻨــﺐ اﳋﺴــﺎﺋﺮ‬
‫‪ .(prospect theory‬ﻭﻧﺤﻠﻞ اﳌﺤﺪدات اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺪﺧﻞ ﰲ ﺻﻨﻊ ﻗـﺮارات اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳـﺔ اﳋﺎرﺟﻴـﺔ‬
‫)ﺑﻴﺌﺔ اﻟﻘﺮار‪ ,‬ﻭاﻟﻌﻮاﻣﻞ اﻟﺴﻴﻜﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺔ‪ ,‬ﻭاﻟﻌﻮاﻣﻞ اﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ‪ ,‬ﻭاﳌﺆﺛﺮات اﳌﺤﻠﻴﺔ(‪ .‬ﻛـﲈ ﻧـﺪرس‬
‫ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﻮاﻣـﻞ اﻟﺴـﻴﻜﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺔ اﻟﺘـﻲ ﺗﺸـﻜﹼﻞ اﻟﻘـﺮارات; ﻣﺜـﻞ اﻟﺼـﻮر ﻭﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣـﺎت‬

‫اﻟﺴﱪﻧﻄﻴﻘﺎ ‪ ،cybernetics‬ﻫـﻲ ﰲ اﻷﺻـﻞ ﻋﻠـﻢ اﻟـﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﻭاﻟﻀـﺒﻂ ﰲ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨـﺎت اﳊﻴـﺔ أﻭ اﻵﻻت‪ ,‬ﻣـﻦ ﺧـﻼﻝ ﻓﻬـﻢ ﻋﻤﻠﻴـﺎت‬
‫* ﱢ‬
‫ﻭﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺎت اﻻﺗﺼﺎﻝ ﺑﲔ أﺟﺰاﺋﻬﺎ; ﻭ ﹸﻳﻘﺼﺪ ﲠﺎ ﻛﺬﻟﻚ اﻟﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﰲ ﺗﻮزﻳﻊ اﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻭﺗﺪاﻭﳍﺎ ﻭإﻋﺎدة اﻹﻧﺘﺎج ﳍﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﴩح اﳌﺆﻟﻔـﺎﻥ‬
‫اﻟﺴﱪﻧﻄﻴﻘﻲ ﰲ ﺻﻨﻊ اﻟﻘﺮار ﰲ اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﳋﺎﻣﺲ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻜﺘﺎب‪) .‬اﳌﺤﺮر(‬
‫اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﱢ‬

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