THE EFFECTS OF DIVIDEND ANNOUNCEMENTS ON THE STOCK PRICE OF

TELECOMMUNICATION COMPANIES IN THE NAIROBI SECURITIES EXCHANGE

EDMOND MUBANANI MUKHONGO

MSF/0026/2022

A RESEARCH CONCEPT NOTE SUBMITTED TO THE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS,

DEPARTMENT OF ACCOUNTING AND FINANCE, IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE

REQUIREMENT FOR THE AWARD OF THE DEGREE OF MASTERS OF SCIENCE IN

FINANCE OF TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY OF MOMBASA

AUGUST 2023

DECLARATION

This Concept paper is my original work and has not been presented for a degree award in any
other university.

Signature…………………………………………. Date ………………………………………..

 Research Paper Concept Note

Research Papers Analysis Matrix

S/No. Author and Tittle Purpose/ Methods/ Key findings Limitations and
year (APA objectives design further research
format)
1. (Bustani et al., The Effect of This research Data analysis The research This research is
2021) Earning Per aims to examine with findings confirmed limited to the
Share, Price to the effect of bootstrapping the significant company's
Book Value, Earning Per Share used SEM effect of Earning fundamental
Dividend Payout (EPS), Price to (statistical per Share, Price to factors, so it does
Ratio, and Net Book Value equation Book Value, and not assess factors
Profit Margin (PBV), Dividend modeling) in Dividend Payout outside the
on the Stock Payout Ratio hypothesis Ratio on stock company, such as
Price in (DPR), and Net testing prices. inflation and
Indonesia Stock Profit Margin government
Exchange (NPM) on the policy. Thus, in
stock price subsequent
studies, it is
necessary to add
factors outside the
company that
affects the stock
price.
2. (Syofyan et al., INFLUENCE OF This study aims The sample The results showed For further
2020) COMPANY to examine: selection is by that: research, it can
VALUE 1) The effect of purposive 1) Company value Extend the
INFORMATION, company value sampling had no effect on observation
DIVIDEND information in method. The stock prices, where Period adding to
POLICY, AND this case the price data used in this the significance the category of
CAPITAL book value (PBV) study include value was 0.031 companies used
STRUCTURE ON on stock prices, secondary data. <0.05 and the value as research
STOCK PRICE 2) The effect of Data collection of t count> t table samples, for
dividend policy in techniques with was 2.214> 1.995 example, all
this case the documentation but the negative β companies listed
dividend payout techniques. The value was -0.028 on the IDX and
ratio (DPR) on analysis used is (H1 was rejected). adding other
stock prices, multiple linear 2) Dividend policy information
3) The effect of regression has a significant as variables that
capital structure positive effect on are thought to
in terms of This is stock prices, where affect stock
a debt to equity the significance prices, such as
ratio (DER) to value is 0.034 company
stock prices. <0.05 and the value performance
of t arithmetic> t (financial
table is 2.171> performance,
1.995 and a environmental
positive β value of performance),
0.032 (H2 is quality of financial
accepted). reports, and stock
3) Capital structure performance as
has a significant measured by
negative effect on trading volume or
stock prices, where bid-ask shares,
the significance and using the
value is 0.006 information on the
<0.05 and the value efficiency of the
of t arithmetic> t company
table is 2.861> conducting
1.995 and the research using
negative β value is external factors
-0.040 (H3 such as interest
accepted). rates, inflation
rates, currency
exchange
 rates and the
political
situation as
independent
variables.

3 (Bustani et al., The Effect of This study aims Determination The results This study still
2021) Dividend Policy, to obtain of the sample showed that has limits,
Investment empirical in this study dividend policy namely,this study
Decision, Leverage, evidence related using the does not only takes the
Profitability, and to the effect of purposive affectfirm value, variables of
FirmSize on firm dividend policy, sampling investment dividend policy,
value investment method. decisions do investment
decisions, Hypothesis notaffectfirm decisions,
leverage, testing in this value, leverage leverage,
profitability, and study uses affects profitability, and
firm size on firm panel data positivelyfirm firm size as
value regression value, profitability independent
affects variables in
positivelyfirm influencing firm
value, and firm value. In
sizedoes addition, the firm
notaffectfirm value variable is
value. only measured
using the PBV
ratio. there are
still various kinds
of measurements
for the firm
value variable
For the
management, it
can be taken into
 consideration for
the company in
increasing
company value
and as a
consideration for
issuers to evaluate
and improve in
order to improve
the company's
performance in the
future.Future
researchers are
expected to add
other variables
that can affect
firm value, further
researchers are
expected to use
other
measurements in
measuring firm
value variables
4 (Singh & The Effect of The present study The data have The result of the The future study
Tandon, 2019) Dividend Policy on has been been analysed Hausman test can focus on a
Stock Price: undertaken to by employing indicates that larger group of
Evidence from the evaluate the multiple panel random effect companies or it
Indian Market effect of dividend data regression model is more can be industry
policy on market models namely relevant in specific.
prices of shares of pooled describing the
Nifty 50 regression, fixed relationship among
companies listed effect model the given variables.
on the National and random The results of the
 Stock Exchange effect model. random effect
(NSE) for 2008– The Hausman regression model
2017 test has been support the
used to suggest relevant
the most approaches of
appropriate dividend policy.
regression Thus, we conclude
model that there is
significant effect of
dividend policy on
the stock price of
firms.
5 (Agung et al., The Effect of This study aims Using purposive The results of the Future research to
2021) Investment to determine the sampling suitability test consider different
Decision, Financing influence of method. model show that sectors such as
Decision, Dividend investment Data were simultaneously hospitality and
Policy on Firm decision, analyzed using investment manufacturing
Value financing multiple linear decision (PER), which could yield
decision, regression. financing decision different results
dividend policy (DER) and
on firm value dividend policy
(DPR) influence
firm value.
6 (Ngoc Hung et Impact of Dividend This research is By employing Some variables Further research
al., 2019) Policy on Variation conducted to ordinary least including income on the relationship
of Stock Prices: investigate the squares (OLS) variation, long between dividend
Empirical Study of impact levels of and quantile term liabilities and policy and stock
Vietnam dividend policy regression (QR), growth have price variation
on stock prices we found that positive with longer time
variation in the there is a relationships with series is identified
case of the stock negative stock price and discussed.
exchange of an relationship variation whereas
emerging country between firm size has no
 − Vietnam dividend policy impact on it. We
and variation of also found that
stock prices firms using low
dividend yields
influence stock
prices variation in
a clearer way
7 (Budagaga, Dividend policy This study will The current The analysis The current study
2020) and market value of examine the study adopts reveals that current is restricted to a
banks in MENA impact of cash residual income dividend payouts sample of one type
emerging markets: dividends on the approach based and dividend yield of financial firms,
residual income market value of on Ohlson's do not provide banks, because of
approach banks listed in (1995) valuation information the problem of
Middle East and model. By relevant to the missing data and
North African testing different establishment of limited
(MENA) statistical market values in information
emerging techniques, MENA emerging related to other
countries during fixed effect is markets; thus, they financial firms for
the period 2000– applied on panel have no material the same period.
2015. data for (144) impact on MENA Therefore, further
banks listed on banks' market research could be
11 MENA stock values. This lack of additional types of
markets over the current dividend financial firms
period 2000– payment effect is such as insurance
2015. consistent with firms that play a
Furthermore, Miller and vital role in
additional tests Modigliani (1961) MENA emerging
are applied to dividend economies.
confirm the irrelevance
primary results. assumption: there
is no evidence of
either an
informational or
 real cash inflow
effect of current
dividend payments
8 (Rój, 2019) The Determinants The purpose of The Tobit The empirical Further research
of Corporate this research is to regression is findings from the could be extended
Dividend Policy in examine the used to identify extension of to financial firms
Poland factors that the impact of Ohlson’s (1995) on the Warsaw
determine the factors residual income Stock Exchange
dividend policy influencing the model show that, in Poland
of non-financial companies’ by adding the cash
firms listed on the distribution of dividends
Warsaw Stock dividends variables, an
Exchange (WSE) Islamic dummy
in Poland and that variable, and
of the annually controlling
paid dividends variables (size,
FCR and ASC)
into the basic
Ohlson equation,
the adjusted
models have
substantial
explanatory power
(R2 values) in
explaining cross-
sectional market
values. The
findings also
indicate that a
firm’s book value
and residual
income (abnormal
earnings) are
 positively and
statistically
significant factors
in determining the
market value of
banks in the
MENA region
9 (Lingesiya Dividend Policy The prime A sample of 81 it is concluded that it is suggested to
Kengatharan & and Share Price objective of this listed non - dividend yield, future research
Jeyan Suganya Volatility: Evidence research is to financial firms dividend per share which can be
Dimon Ford, from Listed Non- investigate the from CSE in Sri and firm size have extended with all
2021) Financial Firms in impact of Lanka is significant impact the sectors in the
Sri Lanka dividend policy examined using on price volatility Colombo Stock
on share price panel data in Sri Lankan Exchange and to
volatility in analysis for a context and other Asian region
Colombo Stock five years findings of the markets.
Exchange (CSE) period from study are in line
2013 to 2017 with the dividend
relevance theory
10 (Salim & The Role of The purpose of Data were The results of this These limitations
Pardiman, 2022) Dividend Policy this study is to analyzed using study indicate that include time
as Intervening analyze the role path analysis earnings per share constraints, so
Variables on The of dividend method using have no effect on this research only
Effect of Earning policy in SPSS version 25 dividend policy. takes research
Per Share, Debt mediating the software. Debt equity to ratio objects only in
Equity Ratio and effect of earnings has no effect on the manufacturing
Price Book Value per share, debt company's companies listed
on Stock Price equity to ratio and dividend policy. on the IDX and
price book value Price book value only
on stock prices. has no effect on the uses the last 3
company's periods.
dividend policy. Furthermore, this
Dividend study only uses 3
performance has no independent
effect on stock variables so that it
prices. Earning per is not optimal in
share has an effect finding the level
on stock prices. of influence on the
Debt equity to ratio dependent
has an effect on variable.
stock prices. Price For further
book value has an researchers, it is
effect on stock recommended to
prices. Dividend add or update the
policy is not year and research
successful in var
mediating the iables, because
effect of earnings this study
per share on stock only examined 3
prices. Dividend years and only 4
policy also failed independent
to mediate the variables, it
effect of debt would be better
euqity to ratio on if the year and
stock prices. the variables were
Furthermore, the added. So that it
dividend policy can provide a
also failed to broad overview of
mediate the effect the factors that
of price book value influence the stock
on stock prices price. It is also
advisable to
research other
sectors such as
banking, LQ
-45, and so on
11 (Kamran et al., THE IMPACT OF The main The analyses are The result shows The research may
2019) DIVIDEND objectives of the carried out by that dividend also analyze other
POLICY ON FIRM research are the econometric policy, capital companies. This
PERFORMANCE: aimed at model (linear structure long term paper used only
A CASE STUDY analyzing and regression and firm size the cement sector
OF THE investigating influence the companies of
INDUSTRIAL factors which performance of the Pakistan for the
SECTOR affect firm firm (ROE). analysis. In the
performance such future, researchers
as dividend should increase
policy, capital the area of
structure short research such as
and long term, hotel industries,
firm size and firm technology
growth industries and the
construction
industry, etc. The
researchers should
also select the
large sample size
that will increase
in accuracy of the
result. In addition,
this research has
analyzed the
relation of the
dependent variable
(ROE) (firm
performance) to
the independent
variables (the
dividend policy,
 capital structure
short term, capital
structure long
term, firm size and
firm growth).
Therefore, it is
recommended the
researchers to
analyze other
independent
variables as well
as a ratio of
management,
depreciation,
information
technology and
customer
satisfaction, etc
12 (Hossin & Dividend Policy This paper In this paper, The empirical Dividend payout
Ahmed, 2020) and Stock Price intends to analyze Fixed Effect evidence based on policy is one of
Volatility in the the impact of Model along the Random Effect the major
Bangladesh Capital dividend policy with Random Model shows that unsolved problems
Market: An on the market Effect Model there is a positive of corporate
Experimental price of stock in has been used to relation of Cash finance which
Analysis Bangladesh. estimate Dividend (CD), observes more
outcomes Stock Dividend research in order
(SD), Return on to increase
Equity (ROE) and understanding of
Growth of Asset the subject. The
(GA) with stock same country,
prices. And Profit incorporating
after Tax (PAT), almost the same
Earnings per Share variables but
 (EPS) along with different industries
Dividend Payout has come up with
Ratio (DPR) somewhat
showed the different results.
negative This conflicting
involvement with results demand
the share prices in more research that
Bangladeshi the could clarify such
Food & Allied, relationships.
Ceramics and
Cement industry
sector.
13 (Ali, 2022) Corporate dividend This paper Logit findings reveal that Further research
policy in the time of examines how the regression meth firm profitability, is recommended
COVID-19: COVID-19 od was earnings prospects, on firm size and
Evidence from the pandemic affects employed size and leverage leverage as they
G-12 countries corporate appear to be appear to be
dividend policy important important
determinants of determinants of
dividend policy the decision to
decisions during omit dividends
the pandemic. during the
pandemic.
14 (Mahirun et al., Impact of dividend This study aims The analytical The results of Study on other
2023) policy on stock to test and tool we use is testing 177 samples variables such as
prices analyze the path analysis to over a period of 10 PER and DER are
research model test the effect of years resulted in recommended .
by using dividend exogenous the finding that the
policy as an variables on dividend policy
intervening endogenous with the DPR
variable on the variables, (Dividend Payout
effect of firm including testing Ratio) indicator
value and capital direct and was unable to
 structure on firm indirect effects mediate funding
value policy and firm
value in increasing
stock prices.
Another study
found that factors
that increase SP
(stock prices) in a
positive and
significant
direction of
influence are ROE
(Return On
Equity), and DPR
(Dividend Payout
Ratio), while other
variables such as
PER (Price Earning
Ratio) and DER
(Debt to Equity
Ratio) do not
significantly
increase SP (Stock
Prices) despite the
positive direction
of influence.
15 (Norshafizah THE EFFECT OF The objective of Panel data The results of The future study
Binti Hanafi et DIVIDEND this study is to regression panel data can focus on a
al., 2023) POLICY ON determine the model was used regression model larger group of
SHARE PRICES effects of indicated that companies by
OF BURSA dividend policies dividend payout country, or it can
MALAYSIA on share prices has an insignificant be industry
LISTED with an emphasis effect on share specific. Data on
 COMPANIES on companies prices, however, the impact of
listed on the dividend yield has dividend policy
FTSE Bursa negative and beforeand after the
Malaysia 100 significant effect COVID-19
(FBM100) index. on share price. pandemic can also
Return on invested be analyzed in the
capital, volume future study.
traded, and
company sizes by
market
capitalization have
significant effect
on share price
while free cash
flow yield had no
significant effect.
16 (Kumaraswamy DIVIDEND this research multiple least Empirical results As highlighted by
et al., 2019) POLICY AND paper seeks to squares shows that Baker and
STOCK PRICE examine the regressions is dividends are Wurgler (2004)
VOLATILITY IN relationship employed affecting stock dividends are
INDIAN CAPITAL between dividend prices variations in highly relevant in
MARKET policies and share India which fits in influencing stock
price volatility with the bird in prices, but in
hand and signaling different
theories of directions in
dividends. Due to different times, the
the volatile nature derived results of
of the market, this study may not
Indian investors’ be generalized
prefer demanding with other
more dividends geographical
from firms rather markets.
keeping retained Moreover, the
earnings on dividend payments
reinvestment. The are not only
outcomes of this influenced by
study supports the internal factor but
fact that dividends could also be
policy influence influenced by
stock price market-specific
variations in Indian factors which is
capital market. The not included in the
results of this study present study.
provides an insight
to the financial
managers in
developing their
dividend policies to
maximizing the
shareholders
wealth.
 Research Topic

The topic for the proposed research is “The effects of dividend announcements on the

stock price of telecommunication companies in the Nairobi Securities Exchange.”

Statement of the Problem

Stock markets are usually reactive to events that traders and investors perceive either

positively or negatively. Publicly listed companies place significant emphasis on their stock price

since it reflects their overall financial health (Kyle, 2019). The general assumption is that a

higher stock price increases the prospects of a company in terms of its future earnings and

growth. The stock price is one of the key indicators used by analysts to determine the general

health of a company (Wong, 2017). Together with the price-to-earnings ratio and earning history,

stock price can help investors and analysts predict the long-term viability of a company (Wong,

2017). A healthy stock price is also needed to enable a company access equity financing and be

viewed favorably by creditors since stock prices are positively tied to a company’s earnings.

Moreover, the stock price also indicates the performance of a company’s executive management

(Kyle, 2019). A healthy stock price also reduces the possibility of a takeover due to diminishing

market values. Overall, the stock price is an important financial metric that increases the earnings

and growth prospects of a firm. For this reason, it is in the best interest of companies to strive

towards achieving a healthy stock price.

However, in stock prices of firms in Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE), have been

dropping, especially those in the telecommunication sector. The share price movement of listed

telecommunications in the NSE has been downwards (Ndei, 2019). The consequences of low

stock prices are significant, for individual companies as well as the economy is in general. With
low stock prices, companies struggle to access equity financing and are perceived poorly by

creditors. Low stock prices are also associated with higher share dilution and expensive capital

(Arouri et al., 2016). Other detrimental effects associated with low stock prices include negative

public image for the firm, reduced employee morale, and difficulties attracting and retaining

talent. For the economy, a drop in the stock prices signals a decrease in the stock market

performance, which is correlated with a decrease in economic growth and performance as well as

economic activity. Drops in stock prices also reduces investor confidence, which can lead to flee

the market (Arouri et al., 2016).

Stock prices are affected by numerous factors. One of such factors within the control of

the organization is divided decisions. There is evidence suggesting that dividend decisions can

have an impact on stock prices (Agung et al., 2021; Bon & Hartoko, 2022). At the same time,

there studies showing that dividend decisions have an insignificant impact on stock prices.

Kavrar (2020) observed that many studies have reached contradictory conclusions due to

differing approaches – some researchers have adopted a normative approach to answer questions

regarding dividend decisions while others have adopted a behavioral approach characterized by

asking the management directly about the factors influencing the decision-making process.

Moreover, for companies, a model for developing a successful dividend policy is lacking (Laufer

et al., 2023). Therefore, understanding how stock markets reacts to events, such as dividend

announcements or decisions, is critical in informing investment decisions. Against this backdrop,

this proposed study focuses on the effect of divided announcement on the stock performance of

telecommunication firms listed in the NSE.

Research Objectives
 The general objective of the proposed study is to investigate the effect of dividend

announcement on the stock price telecommunications companies listed in the NSE. The specific

objectives are:

1. To determine the effect of dividend announcement on the stock prices of

telecommunication companies listed in the NSE

2. To determine the effect of dividend payout date on the stock prices of telecommunication

companies listed in the NSE

3. To compare the effects of dividend announcement and dividend payout date on the stock

prices of telecommunication companies listed in the NSE

Research Hypotheses

H1: Dividend announcement positively affected the stock prices of telecommunications firms

listed in the NSE

H2: Dividend payout date positively affected the stock prices of telecommunication firms listed

in the NSE

H3: Dividend announcement and dividend payout date exerted similar positive effects on the

stock prices of telecommunication firms listed in the NSE

Justification of the Research

The rationale for the proposed study emanates from conceptual and contextual gaps in the

existing literature. Conceptually, there is no agreement in the literature regarding the effects of

dividend announcements on stock prices. Some studies have reported positive effects (Anwar et

al., 2015; Majanga, 2015) while others have showed no significant effects (Felimban et al., 2018;

Pandey & Kumari, 2022). As a result, the relationship between stock prices and dividend

announcements is unclear. The contextual gap identified relates to the little scholarly attention on
the effect of dividend announcements on stock prices in the Kenyan telecommunication sector.

Most studies focus on dividend policy changes (Agung et al., 2021; Bon & Hartoko, 2022). Little

attention has been directed to study the effect of the announcement event using an event study

methodology (ESM).

The proposed study will also have practice importance and policy implications. In terms

of practical significance, understanding how dividend announcements affect stock prices can

assist investors make informed decisions and formulate effective investment strategies in the

Kenyan telecommunications sector. In terms of policy, the findings from the proposed study can

provide useful insights for regulators to help them create effective policies for dividend payouts

in the Kenyan telecommunication sector. Furthermore, the proposed research is relevant and

timely, especially due to reducing stock prices in the NSE. Therefore, the findings obtained from

the study will help companies develop strategies to increase their stock prices using dividend

announcements and payout dates as a basis.

Theoretical Framework

The theory that will guide the proposed study is the efficient market hypothesis (EMH),

which posits that stock prices reflect the information that is available in the market (Rossi &

Gunardi, 2018). This theory also assumes that the trade of stocks often occurs at fair value; as a

result, traders cannot sell their stocks at inflated prices or purchase undervalued stocks. The key

premise of this theory is that investors and traders cannot beat an efficient market characterized

by prices reflecting all the available information (Kyle, 2019). Based on the EMH, an

implication is that any changes in the market, such as dividend announcements, are expected to

reflect in stock prices. Following the logic of this theory, it can be presumed that stock prices

react to dividend announcements (Rossi & Gunardi, 2018). Dividend announcements are positive
events; hence, can be expected to have a positive effect on stock prices. Figure 1 illustrates the

EMH and the expected impact of events on stock prices.

Figure 1: Efficient Market Hypothesis

Source: Kyle (2019)

Conceptual Framework

The independent variables in the proposed study are dividend announcement and the

dividend payout date, which are two distinct events. Dividend announcement is defined as the

date when the board of directors made a dividend proposal. A 40-day event window will be used

in this research – 20 days before the announcement date (t = 0) and 20 days after the dividend

announcement date. The same time window will be adopted for the dividend payout date, which

is defined as the date in which the dividend is paid out to stockholders. The dependent variable in

this study is stock price, which will be operationalize in terms of cumulative abnormal returns

(CARs) computed by aggregating daily returns throughout the event window beginning from the
day before the announcement and payout to after the event. Figure 2 shows the conceptual

framework for this study.

Dividend announcement
event

Stock Price

Dividend payout date

Figure 2: Conceptual Framework

Source: Researcher

Methodology

An event study methodology (ESM) will be used to evaluate the effect of the two events

(dividend announcement and payout date) on the stock prices of listed telecommunication firms

in the NSE. The ESM approach is often used to study the reactions of stock markets to

information or announcements about events, such as dividend announcements (Ullah et al.,

2021). This approach involves calculating the CARs by comparing the expected and actual stock

returns in order to determine if an event had a significant impact on stock returns. The expected

returns are subtracted from the actual returns after an event to determine the extent to which the

actual returns deviated from the expected returns.

For this study, two events will be studied and compared – the dividend announcement

date and the dividend payout date. For both events, a 40-day window (estimation period) will be

used – 20 days before and 20 days after the event. Computation of CARs will be done using the

market-adjusted model, which is the most common approach used for computing CARs (Ullah et
al., 2021). To take into account temporal volatility and calculate ARS and CARS during window

for the two events, the GARCH model will be used, wherein Ri will be computed by the

following equation

Wherein Pi, t and Pi, t-1, denote the closing prices of stocks of companies i on dates t and t-1

correspondingly.

The AR of a stock i on a particular date t will be calculated by the equation below:

The expected return will be determined by the equation below:

AR i,t = the abnormal return calculated for a firm i on a date t.

E (R i,t ) = expected return of a company i for a date t.

R i,t = return of a firm i for a date t.

R m,t = composite market index for the NSE for date t.

The are the intercept and slope values respectively obtained from the market model

and determined by the maximum likelihood method.

The conditional variance for the GARCH (1, 1) will be calculated using the following equation:
Where represent ambient volatility,

adjustment to previous shocks and adjustment to previous volatility correspondingly.

The sample will consist of the 15 telecommunication companies listed in the NSE. Data

on the daily closing stock prices of the listed companies in the telecommunication sectors will be

obtained from the NSE Data Services

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