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Research Paper - 4
Research Paper - 4
To cite this article: Jeffery Paul Bray & Christine Harris (2006) The Effect of 9-Ending Prices on
Retail Sales: A Quantitative UK Based Field Study, Journal of Marketing Management, 22:5-6,
601-617, DOI: 10.1362/026725706777978631
Introduction
It is reported to be one of the great tricks of the retail trade, the use of 9-
ending prices, to make consumers think goods are cheaper than they really
are (Burns 1995). The practice of pricing goods just under a round amount
has been employed for many years and despite interest in the phenomenon
by economists and marketers alike for well over 70 years (Ginzberg 1936;
Bader and Weinland 1932), empirical evidence that price endings affect
demand is limited (Anderson and Simester 2003). The purpose of this article
is to attempt to measure any effect that the use of 9-ending prices has on
consumers within the UK retail market, through a quantitative empirical
sales trial.
On reviewing the literature in this area, it is clear that different authors
have adopted a wide range of differing terminology to describe the price
endings they were investigating. The precise nature of a number of studies
perhaps warrants subtle changes in description. Early works in this area
appear to have favoured the terms, Odd and Even price endings, with Odd
pricing being the “ubiquitous practice of expressing a price so that it falls just
below a round number” (Schindler and Wiman 1989, p. 165). Other terms
used include Psychological pricing (alluding to the psychological effect Odd
pricing is purported to exert on the consumer), Round Pound pricing (as the
term suggests) and a number of variants around a 9-ending theme. Work
adopting any of these terminologies are relevant to this study, which itself
will use two terms: 9-ending prices and round-pound prices, representing
the two possibilities under evaluation.
Literature Review
Surveys conducted in the UK suggest that around 64% of all prices end with
a nine (Daily Mail 2000), and the preponderance of prices ending in 99 has
even led one fringe political party to plan the introduction of a 99p coin if
elected (Anon. 2005). It is clear that on an economic basis alone, clustering of
prices ending in 9 would not occur. For the decision to use 9-ending prices to
be a rational one, retailers must see some practical use in the practice or
assume a higher demand will be present at these price points.
It is thought by many that ‘just-below’ pricing was conceived for
operational reasons; with the introduction of cash registers in 1879, shop
owners wanted to ensure tills were opened for each transaction to stop
dishonest assistants from pocketing cash (Hower 1943; Burns 1995).
However, opposing operational considerations are also present, with a
number of retailers adopting round-pound pricing to prevent the need to
give change, thus increasing transaction speed and reducing in-store queues
(Stiving and Winer 1997).
While these practical considerations may hold some merit, many
academics believe that ‘just-below’ pricing has a psychological effect on the
consumer, increasing their likelihood of purchasing products priced in such a
manner. A number of studies propose that consumers round prices down,
and ignore right hand digits (Gabor and Granger 1964; Lambert 1975;
The Effect of 9-Ending Prices on Retail Sales 603
than the control prices. The research appears to present consistent findings.
An 8% sales uplift was observed as a result of lowering prices by one cent
(0.03%). These findings represented a rather implausible price elasticity of -
267 strongly suggesting that in these circumstances the use of 9-ending prices
was having a significant and positive effect on sales.
Anderson and Simester’s research (2003) was again conducted through
collaboration with a catalogue based retailer; however, the trial attracted
average sales of only 8.7 units per item questioning the extent to which any
findings can be generalised. Anderson and Simester did find a consistency of
response, with the use of 9-ending prices increasing sales. Furthermore their
findings suggest that 9-ending prices have a more positive impact on sales
when the item is new. This finding adds weight to the ‘informational’ role
that price is purported to play, with consumers being more reliant on price to
judge products on which they have little existing information.
While these studies are of interest, it is thought that they share a number
of common weaknesses.
1. The sample sizes obtained are thought to be too small for generalised
findings to be made.
2. Each research is conducted through manipulation of the prices of
fashion products in a mail order environment. While this is not
thought to be inappropriate, the commonality of these studies limits
the extent to which their findings can be applied to other areas of
retailing. Specifically fashion purchase is discretionary and evaluated
by the consumer in a different way to other products.
3. It is not thought that behavioural patterns observed in catalogue
retailing can be assumed to apply to store-based retail. Specifically,
purchasing through a catalogue implies a position of low information
where the consumer cannot touch, feel or interact with the product. It
is thought that in such circumstances the price of the product may
serve an enhanced ‘informational-role’ leading to significant
differences in the purchase decision making process. This hypothesis
is corroborated by Anderson and Simester (2003) who find that the
effectiveness of 9 price endings in attracting greater sales is enhanced
for products which are ‘new’, and as such consumers have less
information upon which to make their purchasing decision.
non-00 endings, however Schindler and Kibarian (1996) comment that the
coefficient found was not of statistical significance. The second study of
interest was conducted by Georgoff (1971), where again product prices were
altered in an American department store. Again, no statistically significant
sales difference could be detected through the use of 99 price endings. No
studies can be found that have empirically studied the effect of 99p price
endings in the UK.
Many authors have commented on the importance of understanding how
consumers process prices, especially the right-hand digits (Stiving and Winer
1997). The setting of prices has a direct impact on profit margins attained,
and it is asserted by much of the work discussed here that sales are also
influenced by very small price adjustments. As such, it is thought that this
area of study is of great practical use to retail managers and buyers in
helping them set their prices at the optimum level.
Methodology
It was decided at the early stage of this long-term investigation into pricing
to ignore the advice of the King in Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland, “Begin
at the beginning [...] and go on till you come to the end: then stop.” (Carroll
1865, Ch. 12). The beginning for the consumer starts with awareness, and
hopefully leads onto purchase. As there is no conclusive proof that 9 price
endings do increase store based sales it is sensible to attempt to quantify any
effect before researching the possible reasons why, or examining the causes.
If evidence could be found of significant differences in levels of demand
between odd and even pricing then the reasons for this could be explored in
subsequent studies, possibly leading to a blue-print advising retailers on the
best use of different price ending tactics.
The hypothesis of the research was formulated as:
H1: There is a difference between the level of sales attracted through the
use of 9-ending prices and round-pound prices.
Ho: There is no difference between the level of sales attracted through the
use of 9-ending prices and round-pound prices.
of the UK retail market and findings from this media are not thought to
apply more broadly to other areas of retail. The need for store-based research
is clear, and the route that was pursued.
After some preliminary research the support of a national retailer, which
has over 400 stores across the UK, was gained. The retailer used will be
labelled, Company A. Research into present and historic materials showed
that Company A had, for at least 50 years, adopted a 9-ending pricing policy
on all non-promotional prices. This pricing tactic was also used for
promotions except in situations where a percentage discount precluded this
and resulted in a random price ending digit.
Through collaboration with Company A, two closely matched groups of
stores were identified. In one group of stores (trial stores) the prices charged
for a selection of products was increased by one penny, bringing their prices
to round values. In the remaining stores prices remained unchanged, with
sales being monitored to form a control group.
It may have been interesting to have changed a large number of prices,
but due to commercial reasons (not least the practical constraints of re-
programming EPOS pricing, changing all shelf-edge labels, and adjusting
point-of-sale materials which would be required) this was not possible and
so a small number of products were selected.
It was acknowledged that the nature of the specific products included in
the pricing trial may influence the extent to which an effect would be
detectable. As such a diverse range of products were selected for inclusion
(Table 1). Each product could be classified as a shopping product, and was
under £15 in price. These products would not be regular purchases, thus
requiring some evaluation and involvement by the consumer. However, due
to their broad appeal and relatively low cost a large number of sales units
could be monitored over the trial period. Each of the products selected had a
close alternative or substitute; this was a stipulation of the retailer to ensure
that if a large effect were to be present then sales were less likely to be lost,
rather transferred onto an alternative brand. It is thought that the presence of
substitute products at the traditional (for this retailer) 9-ending price level
could emphasise any effect, and the evaluation of the trial’s results is
sympathetic to this.
A number of further considerations were applied before products were
selected for the trial:
A total of 12 stores were selected to take part in the trial. 6 of these stores
were unaffected, with their sales data being gathered over exactly the same
time period to act as a control batch. It may have been possible to simply
compare sales over time, however through comparing actual sales volume
with a concurrent control group, additional extraneous factors could be
eliminated, for example weather conditions, significant sporting events that
would affect consumers’ propensity to shop, or any seasonality in sales
608 Jeffery Paul Bray and Christine Harris
Results
Table 2 displays the total sales units for each of the products over the trial
period. This shows that the total sales units over the period were 3883 in the
trial stores and 3392 in the control stores. This represents a significantly
larger volume of sales data than any previous study into 9 price ending
effects, and provides the first truly quantitative assessment of the reaction of
the UK consumer.
Sales of nine out of the ten products included in the trial rose when prices
were rounded up, the exception being puncture repair outfits.
In order to evaluate the data the Chi (χ2) squared statistical test has been
applied. χ2 is a distribution free non-parametric test and uses the following
formula.
χ2=Σ(O-E)2/E
The Effect of 9-Ending Prices on Retail Sales 609
Trial Sales
Item Trial Stores Control Stores Price Control Price Difference
In order to use this test the control stores represent expected values and
the trial stores represent the observed values. This was underpinned by the
assumption that the customers and stores are, in fact, the same in the trial
group as the control group, with the only difference being the price. This
assumption is thought valid due to the ensured similarities in the two groups
of stores. The value of χ2 was found to be 237.08, which is significant. The
Null hypothesis Ho ‘There is no difference between the level of sales attracted
through the use of 9-ending prices and round-pound prices’, can be rejected
at the 0.001 level in favour of H1 ‘There is a difference between the level of
sales attracted through the use of 9-ending prices and round-pound prices’.
From a mathematical viewpoint this is a neat solution, however from a
marketers viewpoint it raises some interesting issues, and this relates back to
the assumptions that have been made. Firstly a significant difference in sales
has been demonstrated, but these sales differences are not in the direction
that basic economic theory would expect, with price rises seemingly leading
to higher sales volumes. This finding serves to challenge the assumptions
often made of a ‘blip’ in the demand curve around the 9 price ending
(Kalyanam and Shively 1998; Alpert 1970).
There is not, however, unanimity in the result data, with one product
(puncture repair kits) notably demonstrating a large decline in demand as
610 Jeffery Paul Bray and Christine Harris
prices were changed. Throughout the pricing trial it became clear that the
sales pattern for this one product was atypical and so its stock position and
merchandising standards were carefully monitored to ensure that no
extraneous factors were influencing this product. Due to the quantitative
nature of this initial study, the methodology has purposefully excluded any
human interaction with the consumer at the point of evaluation and
purchase, and hence no qualitative information is available offering insight
into consumers’ propensity to buy this one product. Further research is
needed to understand why this product did not behave in line with the more
general findings before any statistical results can be accepted.
Discussion
It appears from this research that price endings have a significant impact on
sales; not, however, in the direction that basic economic theory, or the
existing literature in this area, might have suggested. A wide range of
academics, across a number of broad disciplines, have examined the
possibility that the use of 9 price endings increase sales (e.g., Bizer and
Schindler 2005; Thomas and Morwitz 2005; and Schindler 2006), however, no
previous work has specifically discussed instances of sales growth due to the
adoption of round-pound pricing. Furthermore, while previous empirically
based studies have not revealed a consensus supporting the hypothesis that
the use of 9-ending prices increases sales, each published study has either
observed highly inconsistent findings, (e.g., Ginzberg 1936), no discernable
difference, (e.g., Georgoff 1971), or support for this hypothesis, (e.g.,
Schindler and Kibarian 1996). No previous work has found the use of round-
pound price endings leading to sales increases.
A number of previous works have suggested that customers round-down
prices, or process multi-digit prices from left to right, stopping their analysis
once a difference is detected (e.g., Henrichs et al. 1982; and Schindler et al.
1988). These theories both describe a situation where customers would
perceive 9-ending prices as lower than their nominal value, thus significantly
lower than a competing product priced just one penny higher at the round
amount. Based upon these theories it is reasonable to expect sales to be
enhanced through the use of 9-ending prices. This study provides evidence
of increased sales at round-pound prices, thus challenging these assertions
and raising many further questions. It is noteworthy to remember that a
number of close alternatives or substitutes existed for each product included
in the trial. It was thought that this stipulation would exaggerate any
findings, which in this case lends further concern to the rounding down
theories.
Other published work has investigated the informational effect that prices
The Effect of 9-Ending Prices on Retail Sales 611
Conclusion
discussed in the literature proposes that customers discern meaning from the
price endings used, with round-pound prices implying higher quality and 9-
ending prices implying value (e.g., Schindler 1991; and Quigley et al. 1992).
This theory, describing the informational effect that price endings play, may
be useful in helping to understand the sales patterns experienced, though
further research of a qualitative nature would be necessary to test this
hypothesis.
No support can be seen through this research for the rounding down
theories proposed by other authors (e.g., Henrichs et al. 1982; and Schindler
et al. 1988). The theory suggests a lack of analysis of the full price by the
consumer, an effect that this research appears to contradict.
This research provides is a robust challenge to the established usage of 9-
ending prices; recent survey work in the UK has found that 64% of all retail
prices end in a 9 (Daily Mail 2000). The research outlined here has clear
implications for retailers and specifically managers with price setting
responsibility. The automatic assumption that the usage of 9-ending prices is
optimum appears to be incorrect in at least some cases. As such retailers
should carefully examine their pricing practices, possibly engaging in trials
with their own product ranges.
Limitations
While this study monitored some 7275 individual sales transactions it is clear
that the scope of the research is limited. Only ten products were included in
the trial rendering the findings of only preliminary importance. Further
quantitative research is necessary to confirm the findings hold true for a
wider range of products.
This research has not set out to provide an understanding of why
consumers select certain products, merely to measure the impact of different
price endings. Any attempt to provide an understanding of the phenomenon
is largely the work of conjecture and the application of previous works in this
area. Questioning customers post-purchase would have added extra
understanding to this research, however this was impractical due to the
extensive period and range of test locations used.
It is clear that consumer behaviour is highly individual and that cultural
differences can affect the way in which we buy and consider information
(Luna and Gupta 2001; Cote and Tansuhaj 1989; Aaker and Maheswaran
1997). It is interesting to note that the vast majority of publications
emanating from this field are based upon research on the American
consumer. It would be wrong to assume that findings from the US would
hold in other nations, and similarly this research may only be valid for the
UK consumer.
The Effect of 9-Ending Prices on Retail Sales 613
One of the key stages in the consumer buying process is the evaluation of
alternatives. By definition specific shopping behaviour will be heavily
influenced by not only one company’s actions, but also by those of their
competitors. In terms of price ending, if the consumer has become
accustomed to one particular price ending, that may breed a particular
attraction or rejection toward prices differing from the established pattern.
This has specific relevance to the research presented here; due to commercial
constraints only a limited number of prices could be changed, resulting in a
small number of round prices existing in a store environment predominated
by 9-ending prices. The extent to which the contextual environment
impacted upon the results has not been addressed. Furthermore, it was not
possible to test whether these sales can be sustained in the long term.
This research has served to highlight the complexity of retail pricing, and the
need for further research in this area. Specifically further quantitative field-
based studies are required to see if the findings from this study can be
replicated in other product categories, and in other countries where cultural
differences may contribute to differing findings. This work should
contribute further to the understanding of price ending effects enabling
retailers and managers to optimise their prices.
Once a clear pattern of behaviour can be established, then research
attention can focus on probing why such behavioural patterns exist,
attempting to bring further understanding of the specific circumstances
which render each price ending to be optimal.
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616 Jeffery Paul Bray and Christine Harris