CURRENT AFFAIRS CSS 2023 By Zeeshan Zaffar (CSS 2020, PMS

2019)

The New Great Game-The Pakistani Perspective:

Challenges and Opportunities

“When everyone is dead the Great Game is finished. Not before.”

Rudyard Kipling

Origin of the Concept: borne of the famous competition for regional control played out in the sub-
continent in the 19th Century between the British and Russian Empires.

The British Lord: Ellenborough “The Great Game" on January 12, 1830, Action: Established a new
trade route from India to Bukhara, using Turkey, Persia, and Afghanistan as a buffer against Russia to
prevent it from controlling any ports on the Persian Gulf

Reaction: Russia to Establish a Neutral Zone i.e. Afghanistan

Impacts: 1) British was involved in Four Wars i.e. Anglo-Afghan to Contain Russian Expansion towards
East

British Lost All Four Wars

2) Afghanistan was accepted as Buffer Zone

Evolution of the Concept:

1) A century Later in 1979, USSR invaded Afghanistan with the same perspective
a. Reason: Geo-strategic importance of Afghanistan
i. Why? Afghanistan is Fulcrum of the Region
ii. Region is Important
1. Geo-politically, Geo-economically, Geo-strategically
2) New Great Game
a. Game is new
b. Players are different
c. Region is same
i. History of conflicts is there
3) Why Great Game?
a. Regions are not something by themselves
i. Evolution of the region
ii. Experienced TRIALS of Political Realities
iii. Faced Influences exercised by the Foreign Powers
iv. Dimensions of the Game are always important
b. Dynamics are Changing with fast pace
 i. Political , economic , strategic and cultural
c. World Order is Evolving with its Final Phase
d. Global Political Economy is Playing its role
e. Emergence of new regions as HEARTLAND
4) Definition of Great Game
a. Originally it was Diplomatic and Political Rivalry between Russia and Britain
1. Scope of the Game( Contest Remained Same)
5) Origin of “New Great Game”
a. Since the Collapse of USSR in 1991
i. Due to Politico-Military and Economic Situation of Central Asia and
Caucasus
1. Central Asia was considered as the region
b. However, it was not limited to Central Asia only
6) Factors of New Great Game
a. Competition in influence
i. Power
ii. Hegemony
iii. Culture
iv. Economy
v. Military
b. Geography
c. Resources
i. Geostrategic
d. Diplomatic influence
7) Actors involved in this New Great Game
a. States
b. MNCs
c. Regions
d. INGOs
8) Theory which Makes the Great Game-the geopolitical paradigm as ever valid
a. Heartland Theory given by Halford Mackinder
i. Eurasian landmass
9) Changing Energy Dynamics and Dependency of US on Foreign Powers
10) Emergence of New Equation
a. Iran and Turkey and their ties with the Central Asia
b. Pakistan and India –extension of their own rivalries
11) Hence, It is Perceived that NEW GREAT GAME is Spread Towards
a. Persian Gulf and
b. South Asia
12) Geo-strategic Value of Regions
a. The Geographical Pivots of the History
b. Situated at crossroads –a strategic hub
c. Hotspot of the World Trade
d. Opportunity for the Infrastructural upgrade
 e. Chinese March to West
f. Options for Political Leverage
i. Kyrgyzstan Joined WTO
ii. Changes in Kazakhstan
iii. Resistance against Russian Political Leverage and National Oil Companies
g. Win-Win Opportunity
h. Energy Politics
i. Region acts like a space which needs actors to fill
j. Untapped Wealth and Question of Energy Pipelines
13) New Great Game and Geo-Strategic Location of South Asia
a. 11 States of South Asia
i. 25% Population
ii. Market, consumer of energy
iii. Stakes of US, China , Russia , and EU with Competing interests
iv.
b. Two Nuclear Powers
c. History of Alliance
d. History of Containment Spot
e. Afghanistan after Post US Exit
i. Political and administrative situation can impact
1. Central asia
2. South Asia
3. Middle East
f. Revival of Rising Power and Established Power Politics
g. Shadows of Russian-Ukraine Conflicts
14) New Great Game and Pakistan
a. Afghanistan as a geostrategic resource is open for Russia and China
b. US-India Strategic alliance since 2003 is on highest grade after US Indo Pacific
Policy
c. Emergence of Like Minded Alliance in the back drop of Russia-Ukraine Crisis
d. Challenged and Questioned Position of US
i. ‫‏‬Military Clout
ii. Economic Strength
iii. Moral and Ethical Conduct
e. Shrinking of the economies in backdrop of lower carbon consumptions policies
f. Restricted selective regulations and sanctions
i. Russia, Iran,….
g. Containment of BRI by Western Powers
h. External Influence can change the security dynamics of the region
i. Fact: India as US proxy and Indian Ambitions of Global Glory
ii. Russia-Ukraine Crisis and Revival of Berlin Episode
iii. US-China Conflict and centrality of the geography
i. US Search of relevance in the region after its withdrawal from Afghanistan
j. Inclusion of Iran in SCO as a permanent Member
 k. Fractured Afghanistan and Iranian Influence of Competition with Saudi influence
15) Changes in the Great Game Equation to understand challenges and way forward
a. These Changes depends on defining factors
i. US withdrawal has diminished the US Capacity to influence the region like it
did in Cold War and Post-cold war era
ii. Unsettled China- Pressure on BRI and CPEC
iii. Global Glory and Domination- the status quo ambitions of India
iv. Pressure of International Sanctions
v. Disrupted Global Supply Chain
vi. West versus the East
vii. Economic objectives manifested in the conflicts i.e. political instabilities ,
military applications
16) Pakistani Perspective
a. Domestic Equation
i. Polarized Society
1. Sectarianism, separatism , provincial animosity, political instability,
financial constraints and problems
b. Impact on Foreign Policy
i. In this Backdrop of New Great Game
ii. Domestic Equation can push Pakistan to:
1. Tone Down CPEC
2. Down-grade its cooperation with Eastern Players
3. Soften its stance on Historical Claims
4. Accommodate Indian Quest of Regional Leadership
5. Allow international access to tone down insurgent groups
6. Cap up its nuclear deterrence position i.e. nuclear assets
c. In this backdrop FP options are:
i. Repeat Rapprochement Policy action between Global and Regional Players
1. Result: Shared influence
ii. Diplomatic activism to keep conflict away from Pakistan’s western border
iii. Arrange and engage MULTI NATIONAL FORCE for Afghanistan
1. Regional Connectivity
2. National Stability
3. Identity of Afghanistan
4. Development of Comprehensive Security Apparatus using SCO
iv. Focus on Kashmir using PERMANENT CONFLICT RESOLUTION
REGIME
v. Set up REGIONAL ANTI-TERRORISM REGIME
1. CENTER to share information, intelligence , and supervision with
all regional countries
vi. Develop NEW REGIONAL and GLOBAL TRADE ALLIANCE
vii. Implement National Security Policy for improvement in DOMESTIC
EQUATION
d. Conclusion
 i. South Asia appears to be next ground of competition
ii. Environment is created with growing influence of China and Changing FP
mode of Russia since 2014

How to write introduction of this Question

1) Start with the Quotation
a. Find the Relevant one based on the topic
2) New Great Game emerged in 1990s and continuing until the present day is multi-faceted. It
not only shifted from Mackinder’s Heartland i.e. Eurasian landmass to Persian Gulf and
South Asia but also has multifaceted dynamics covering: economic, social, cultural and
hard security. As a game it is contested by the multiple players in this geographical region.
Emergence of NEW GREAT GAME after the end of Great Game is offering multi-faceted
challenges and options for Pakistan. These challenges and Options need vibrant measures at
diplomatic and Foreign policy levels while taking domestic reforms hand in hand.