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Ejemplo - Riesgo y Rendimiento
Ejemplo - Riesgo y Rendimiento
12
10
0
-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%
COEFICIENTE DE CORRELACIÓN
BAC - MSFT
r =
r2 =
7
80.0%
12
60.0%
8 f(x) = 3.0870160509858 x − 0.326787150049494
6 40.0%
R² = 0.311872256616176
3 20.0%
2 0.0%
-5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%
1 -20.0%
3 -40.0%
0
-60.0%
2
-80.0%
RENDIMIENTO DE MERCADO (S&P 500)
-20.0%
RENDIMIE
-40.0%
-60.0%
-80.0%
0
RENDIMIENTO DE MERCADO (S&P 500)
0
0
0
0 MSFT IBM
0 COVARIANZA 0.0044 -0.0036
0 VARIANZA 0.0064 0.0064
0 BETA 0.6885 -0.5588
0 BETA (PENDIENTE) 0.6885 -0.5588
0
0
0
48
ENCIAS
MSFT
IBM
BAC
WMT
BAC - MSFT
0.23
0.055
MSFT IBM
MSFT 1
IBM -0.51926072 1
.0235801563012073 BAC 0.234586043 -0.71210108
WMT -0.08795408 0.003653305
S&P 500 0.330009689 -0.26849679
r= -0.71210108
r2 = 0.507087954
0.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0%
BETA
3.0870
BAC
87150049494
BAC WMT
0.0197 -0.0013
0.0064 0.0064
3.0870 -0.2087
3.0870 -0.2087
BAC WMT S&P 500
1
0.080074975 1
0.558455241 -0.13829651 1
Rf-Rm
Page 12
Rf-Rm
Page 13
Rf-Rm
Page 14
Rf-Rm
S companies
timates of risk premiums from 1928, over the last 50 years and over the last 10 years
e provided at the bottom of this table.
ed Value of $ 100
Historical risk
T.Bonds Stocks - BillsStocks - Bonds premium
$ 100.84 40.73% 42.98%
$ 105.07 -11.46% -12.50%
$ 109.85 -29.67% -29.66%
$ 107.03 -46.15% -41.28%
$ 116.44 -9.71% -17.43%
$ 118.60 49.02% 48.13%
$ 128.05 -1.51% -9.15%
$ 133.78 46.57% 42.27%
$ 140.49 31.77% 26.93%
$ 142.43 -35.64% -36.72%
$ 148.43 29.21% 25.07%
$ 154.98 -1.14% -5.51%
$ 163.35 -10.70% -16.08%
$ 160.04 -12.85% -10.75%
$ 163.72 18.84% 16.88%
$ 167.79 24.68% 22.57%
$ 172.12 18.65% 16.45%
$ 178.67 35.44% 32.02%
$ 184.26 -8.81% -11.56%
$ 185.95 4.63% 4.28%
$ 189.58 4.68% 3.75%
Page 15
Rf-Rm
Page 16
Rf-Rm
Page 17
CUADRO 37 INDICADORES DE RIESGO PARA PAÍSES EMERGENTES: Índice de Bonos de Mercados Emergentes (EMBIG) 1/
DIFERENCIAL DE RENDIMIENTOS CONTRA BONOS DEL TESORO DE ESTADOS UNIDOS DE AMÉRICA (EUA) 2/ (En puntos básicos) 3/
RISK INDICATORS FOR EMERGING COUNTRIES: Emerging Market Bond Index (EMBIG) 1/ Stripped Spread 2/ (In basis points) 3/
Diferencial de rendimientos del índice de bonos de mercados emergentes (EMBIG) / Emerging Market Bond LATIN EMBIG EMBIG Países Tasa de Interés / Interest Rate
Index (EMBIG) Stripped Spread Países Emergentes / Tesoro de EUA Tesoro de EUA Tesoro de EUA 30
Fecha Date
Latinoamericanos Emerging 5 años / USA 10 años / USA años / USA
Perú Argentina Brasil Chile Colombia Ecuador México Venezuela / Latin Countries Countries Treasury 5 years Treasury 10 years Treasury 30 years
2014 162 787 235 143 167 510 183 1336 407 330 1.6 2.5 3.3 2014
Ene. 177 932 256 155 183 571 197 1236 425 347 1.6 2.8 3.8 Jan.
Feb. 183 971 258 159 189 610 196 1387 456 368 1.5 2.7 3.7 Feb.
Mar. 167 880 239 149 177 549 188 1200 408 341 1.6 2.7 3.6 Mar.
Abr. 154 788 225 138 162 455 178 1043 372 316 1.7 2.7 3.5 Apr.
May. 149 798 214 136 154 354 172 1040 365 304 1.6 2.6 3.4 May.
Jun. 145 763 209 122 144 370 160 954 343 282 1.7 2.6 3.4 Jun.
Jul. 147 651 212 124 146 425 163 921 336 282 1.7 2.5 3.3 Jul.
Ago. 157 761 221 130 154 477 169 1069 373 310 1.6 2.4 3.2 Aug.
Set. 150 719 216 126 152 427 168 1297 391 312 1.8 2.5 3.3 Sep.
Oct 170 760 244 150 174 520 190 1604 443 348 1.5 2.3 3.0 Oct
Nov 165 674 252 151 173 549 192 1820 454 349 1.6 2.3 3.0 Nov
Dic 182 747 272 172 200 817 217 2465 516 402 1.6 2.2 2.8 Dec
2015 201 590 361 186 250 995 251 2775 541 415 1.5 2.1 2.8 2015
Ene. 202 732 300 186 231 943 242 3088 561 444 1.4 1.9 2.5 Jan.
Feb. 183 684 315 168 208 779 227 2776 539 426 1.5 2.0 2.6 Feb.
Mar. 184 593 339 156 222 801 234 2865 521 411 1.5 2.0 2.6 Mar.
Abr. 177 604 299 153 216 780 225 2475 488 388 1.3 1.9 2.6 Apr.
May. 166 596 285 143 209 667 217 2256 470 369 1.5 2.2 3.0 May.
Jun. 177 593 296 151 225 775 230 2612 504 385 1.7 2.4 3.1 Jun
Jul. 187 603 322 168 243 909 238 2889 527 397 1.6 2.3 3.1 Jul.
Ago. 217 590 353 194 276 1167 261 3191 567 431 1.5 2.2 2.9 Aug
Set. 234 561 439 216 291 1345 276 2970 586 442 1.5 2.2 2.9 Sep.
Oct. 226 555 448 221 283 1330 278 2851 582 437 1.4 2.1 2.9 Oct.
Nov. 219 486 421 221 280 1213 274 2599 553 412 1.7 2.3 3.0 Nov.
Dic. 236 478 512 250 314 1233 311 2731 594 442 1.7 2.2 3.0 Dec.
2016 251 463 499 246 343 1349 338 3344 629 468 1.3 1.9 2.7 2016
Ene. 266 486 542 273 368 1536 353 3400 663 486 1.5 2.1 2.8 Jan.
Feb. 282 471 558 279 392 1564 372 3581 685 506 1.2 1.8 2.6 Feb.
Mar. 227 450 455 217 310 1193 313 3144 588 444 1.4 1.9 2.7 Mar.
Abr. 1-12 229 444 440 216 302 1105 315 3250 582 437 1.2 1.7 2.6 Apr.1-12
1/ La información de este cuadro se ha actualizado en la Nota Semanal N° 14 (15 de abril de 2016). Corresponde a datos promedio del mes.
2/ Índice elaborado por el J.P. Morgan que refleja los retornos del portafolio de deuda según sea el caso, es decir, de cada país, de los países latinoamericanos y de los países emer-
gentes en conjunto. Considera como deuda, eurobonos, bonos Brady y en menor medida deudas locales y préstamos. Estos indicadores son promedio para cada período y su
disminución se asocia con una reducción del riesgo país percibido por los inversionistas. Se mide en puntos básicos y corresponde al diferencial de rendimientos con respecto al
bono del Tesoro de EUA de similar duración de la deuda en cuestión.
3/ Cien puntos básicos equivalen a uno por ciento.
Retail (Grocery and Food) 17 1.04 46.89% 23.56% 0.76 1.23% 0.77 0.3836
Retail (Online) 39 1.58 8.49% 11.14% 1.46 4.03% 1.53 0.5392
Retail (Special Lines) 124 1.07 46.68% 19.95% 0.78 3.47% 0.81 0.4567
Rubber& Tires 4 1.66 65.26% 9.60% 1.04 11.26% 1.18 0.5027
Semiconductor 87 1.39 12.57% 9.51% 1.24 5.50% 1.32 0.4118
Semiconductor Equip 46 1.40 37.57% 11.25% 1.05 14.27% 1.22 0.4048
Shipbuilding & Marine 11 1.24 56.95% 11.82% 0.83 1.76% 0.84 0.4948
Shoe 11 0.82 6.79% 18.12% 0.78 3.85% 0.81 0.4392
Software (Entertainment) 17 1.42 10.23% 1.56% 1.29 12.11% 1.46 0.5959
Software (Internet) 308 1.34 4.43% 3.80% 1.28 3.29% 1.33 0.6266
Software (System & Application) 241 1.33 12.18% 6.34% 1.19 4.43% 1.25 0.5048
Steel 36 1.43 91.75% 11.49% 0.79 8.70% 0.86 0.4502
Telecom (Wireless) 19 1.48 150.55% 9.38% 0.62 4.01% 0.65 0.5072
Industry Name Number of firms Beta D/E Ratio Tax rate Unlevered beta Cash/Firm value Unlevered beta corrected for cash HiLo Risk
Telecom. Equipment 121 1.29 20.72% 8.86% 1.09 6.98% 1.17 0.4771
Telecom. Services 65 0.95 78.10% 11.89% 0.56 1.77% 0.57 0.4742
Tobacco 20 1.91 19.84% 11.64% 1.63 2.01% 1.66 0.6963
Transportation 21 1.41 31.12% 18.82% 1.13 5.19% 1.19 0.3969
Transportation (Railroads) 12 1.15 30.49% 15.11% 0.92 1.31% 0.93 0.4147
Trucking 26 1.69 101.22% 31.25% 1.00 3.04% 1.03 0.4031
Unclassified 3 0.23 100.42% 0.00% 0.11 0.35% 0.11 0.4300
Utility (General) 20 0.55 70.51% 26.58% 0.36 0.65% 0.36 0.1581
Utility (Water) 18 0.47 49.00% 14.60% 0.33 0.70% 0.33 0.3123
Total Market 7480 1.13 71.49% 10.95% 0.69 4.81% 0.73 0.4681
Standard deviation of equity
71.03%
46.90%
51.95%
60.62%
33.71%
55.06%
32.77%
28.93%
58.51%
54.55%
47.22%
48.05%
44.27%
50.13%
41.58%
54.20%
40.56%
50.43%
86.78%
51.74%
63.91%
42.41%
27.37%
88.89%
77.30%
59.62%
71.04%
63.42%
59.34%
57.02%
63.16%
65.51%
48.69%
34.97%
38.29%
54.49%
44.49%
62.36%
62.16%
54.32%
60.52%
Standard deviation of equity
41.71%
36.49%
46.75%
62.02%
40.74%
33.57%
35.59%
32.93%
37.84%
46.07%
91.02%
41.58%
50.24%
80.22%
47.82%
69.62%
32.10%
38.53%
29.31%
93.13%
51.60%
25.71%
36.15%
40.76%
43.44%
45.47%
29.15%
40.67%
46.34%
50.34%
52.36%
46.87%
51.57%
50.54%
50.69%
38.00%
51.24%
54.21%
60.89%
39.02%
54.18%
64.71%
59.22%
51.52%
45.11%
Standard deviation of equity
57.78%
52.25%
48.90%
40.03%
31.20%
43.08%
24.61%
25.03%
36.78%
51.65%