TOPIC 5 : INTRODUCTION TO

PROBABILITY Events Explanation

Complimentary - Event that
5.1 EVENTS AND PROBABILITY Event includes all
Venn Diagram the outcomes
for an
AB=BA [either A or B = either B or A] experiment
that are not in
A.
- Denoted by
S A’ or A.
Mutually - Cannot
A B Exclusive happen at the
Events same time.
Not-mutually - Can happen at
Exclusive the same
Events time.
AB Dependent - Occurrence of
Events one event
S changes the
probability of
B another
A
event .
Independent - Probability of
Events one event
does not
affect the
probability of
Tree Diagram / Probability Trees / Decision another
Tree event .
A

Basic Counting Principal

A
1st : m outcomes , 2nd : n outcomes , 3rd :k
B
outcomes
Total outcomes = m x n x k
A
B
Probability For Classical And Empirical
B 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝐴
P ( A ) = 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑒

𝑛(𝐴)
Contingency Table =
𝑛(𝑆)

Event C Event D Total Basics Laws Of Probability

Event A n(AC) n(AD) n( A )
Event B n( BC) n(BD) n( B )  0 ≤ P(X) ≤ 1
Total n( C ) n( D ) n( S )  P(A) = 1 [Event sure occur.]
 P(A) = 0 [Event impossible occur.]
 P(A’) = 1 - P(A)
5.2 Basic Rules Of Probability 5.3 MULTIPLICATION RULE AND
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Non-mutually Exclusive
Conditional Event / Dependent Event
P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(AB) P(B|A) B

S A
P(A)
P(B’|A) B’
P(AB)=P(A)  P(B|A)
A B
𝑃(𝐵∩𝐴)
B P(B|A)= , 𝑃(𝐴) ≠ 0
P(B|A’) 𝑃(𝐴)

P(A’) A’

Mutually Exclusive P(B’|A’) B’

P(AB)=0 A
P(A|B)
P(AB)=P(A)+P(B)
A S B
P(B)
A B P(A’|B) A’ P(BA)=P(B)  P(A|B)
B 𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)
P(A|B’) A P(A|B)= , 𝑃(𝐵) ≠ 0
𝑃(𝐵)
P(B’) B’
Probability Of Complement
P(A’|B’) A’
1. P(AB’) [only A]
Independent Event
A B P(B) B

A
P(AB’)=P(A)-P(AB) P(A)
P(B’)
B’
2. P(A’B) [only B] P(B) B
P(A’)
A B A’
P(B’) B’
P(A’B)=P(B)-P(AB)
P(AB)=P(A)P(B)

3. P(A’B’) [=P(AB)’,neither A nor B]

A B
A B

P(A’B’)=1-P(AB)
P(AB)=P(A)+P(B)-P(AB) / P(A)P(B)
4. P(A’B’) [=P(AB)’]

A B

P(A’B’)=1-P(AB)