People at Risk and Land-use Damage Estimation causes by Tsunami using Numerical

Modeling and GIS Approaches (Case Study: South Coast of Java – Indonesia)

M. Rokhis Khomarudin1,2, Günther Strunz1, 3, Ralf Ludwig4, Kai Zoßeder1, Joachim Post1,
Widjokongko2,5, and Widodo S. Pranowo2,6

Abstract

The important components for tsunami risk analysis are people and land-use damage. Information of
people distribution could help to manage the evacuation planning and mitigate the people loss by
tsunami. The land-use damage also important for rehabilitation management and calculate the
budget. This research analyzes the estimation of people at risk and land-use damage estimation by
tsunami in South Coast of Java, Indonesia. Combinations of numerical modeling and Geographic
Information System (GIS) approaches have been applied in this research. There are three scenarios
for tsunami simulations generated by earthquake magnitude Mw 8.5 with different location of the
epicenters. TUNAMI-N1 model has been employee to determine the tsunami wave height in the coastal
area, and the inundation formula has been modified from Cosso and Federici formula. The validations
of tsunami modeling and Cosso and Federici formula have been done using Aceh Tsunami 2004 data.
The inundation base on model and inundation base on satellite image (real inundation) have a similar
pattern. This result of inundation modelling will be used and apply in the study area. Overlay the
inundation map in every scenario with people distribution map and land-use data could estimate
people at risk and land-use damage by tsunami. Land-use in this research derive from topographic
maps 1: 25 000 and people distribution maps derive from combination between statistic data and that
land-use. The people distributions divide into two time, during day time and night time. The final
result of this research is developing information system to describe the people at risk and land-use
damage automatically in software. This research has estimated people at risk and land-use damage in
13 Districts of 4 Provinces in South Coast of Java Indonesia.

Keywords: Tsunami, modelling, people distribution, land-use, geographic information system

INTRODUCTION
People distribution and land-use are crucial information in the risk analysis as exposure
component. In an uninhabited area the human exposure is zero. No matter how many
hurricanes or tsunami will affect an uninhabited island, the human exposure, and hence the
risk of human loss remain zero (Thywissen, 2006). The hazard will not become a disaster
when happen in uninhabited area. Beside the people distribution, land-use is also important.
The critical land-use such as paddy field and fisheries are important for human life in the rural
area. When the tsunami hazards destroy this land-use, many people will suffer cause of loss
of their livelihood.

The population data from censuses commonly made available per political/administrative unit
(Scheiderbauer, 2007). In Indonesia, the small unit for people distributions data is in desa
(village) level. In the fact, combination people distribution data from census and land-use

1
German Aerospace Center (DLR)
2
United Nation University-Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
3
Professor at Technical University of München
4
Professor at Ludwig Maximillian University München
5
DHI Institute
6
Alfred Wegeninger Institute (AWI)

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will make people distribution more detail. For example, distribution people in settlement area
in one village will different in the paddy field area in that village. The proportion of people in
the land-use area is needed in this analysis. That is critical value to estimate people
distribution base on the land-use (Gallego, 2007). In South Coast of Java, this proportion
could be calculated base on people activity during day time or during night time.

Geographic Information System approaches to develop people density base on combination

between statistically data and land-use have been done successfully by some researcher
(Scheiderbauer, 2007). In this research, the people density information will combine with
inundation maps to derive the people at risk in the study area. Geographic Information
System approaches also will easy to calculate land-use damage if we have inundation maps.

The function of inundation maps in this research is a hazard component. Model of inundation
have been developed by some modellers around the world. This research will used
combination between tsunami modelling software Tunami N1 and Federici formula. The
result will be validated using tsunami 2004 event. The result of validated model will be
applied in the study area.

Finally, in the end of this research information system will be needed to inform people and
government in study area about the condition of people at risk and estimation of land-use
damage. This information will useful to government to manage how many people will be
evacuated and how much land-use damage will be rehabilitated.

There are some activity will be done in this research. The first is calculating the people
distribution base on combination between land-use and population from census data. The
second is deriving inundation maps from validated tsunami modelling. The third is combining
between people distribution, land-use, and tsunami inundation to estimate people at risk and
land-use damage. The last is developing tsunami information system base on the people at
risk and land-use damage derivation.

METHODOLOGY
In here, we have been employee TUNAMI-N1 (Imamura et al, 1995 in Imamura et al, 2006)
as the first step to produce tsunami wave height as numerical modeling results, and then
those results will be as an input to Federici formula (2006) for producing inundation maps as
the second step. The milestone of this research will reached after employee GIS approaches
for estimating damages and people at risk.

Data

In this research, we have two kinds of data, first is for input the TUNAMI-N1 as numerical
modeling step and / or inundation modeling using GIS. The second one is data for validation.

As an input for the numerical modeling and inundation modeling using GIS, we have data
such as: Topographic maps of Banda Aceh and Cilacap, scale 1 : 25.000 (Bakosurtanal);
PODES - population data of Banda Aceh and Cilacap (Statistical Bureau Indonesia, 2006);
and DEM (Digital Elevation Model) SRTM (Shuttle Radar for Topography Mission) 90
meters resolutions.

An inundation map of Tsunami December 26, 2004 in Aceh (USGS, 2004) is using for
validation the modelling results.

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TUNAMI-N1

The generation and propagation of 2004 Banda Aceh tsunami and Cilacap scenarios was
modelled using Tohoku University's Numerical Analysis Model for Investigation of near-field
tsunamis, Number 1 (TUNAMI-N1). TUNAMI-N1 is a numerical simulation program that
uses linear theory in deep regions and shallow water theory in shallow regions and on land
(Imamura et al, 2006).

We have been conducted tsunami simulations generated by earthquake Mw.8.5 for Cilacap
scenarios, and earthquake Mw.9.1 for Banda Aceh reconstruction scenario.

There are 3 different epicenter’s locations as Cilacap scenarios: epicentre’s location at

108.192 E, 9.27565 S as scenario 1; at 108.896 E, 9.11123 S as scenario2; and at 109.619 E,
9.02594 S as scenario 3.

Inundation modelling
The maximum wave height as simulations results from TUNAMI-N1 now as an input value
(Ru) to inundations modeling using Cosso and Federici Formula (2006) as shown in below.

W = ε.Ru – Z (1)

Where,
ε = Roughness parameters
Ru = Maximum wave height at the coast
Z = height of the ground (from DEM SRTM)

If W > 0 inundation pixel = 1 wet

If W < 0 no inundation pixel = 0 dry

In this research, the number of roughness (ε) is modified to become wave height loss caused
by distance from the shoreline. We are propose the equations of wave height loss caused by
distance from shoreline derive from two equations, which are based on measurement of wave
height in 2004 Aceh Tsunami (see Figure 1.a), and based on estimation adjustment (see
Figure 1.b). The proposed equations are shown as equation (2) and (3).

ε = 100 – 0.0190 x (2)

ε = 98,5 – 0.0143 x (3)

Where,
ε = wave height loss
x = distance from the shore

The result of estimation of inundation maps will be validated using inundation maps of 2004
Banda Aceh tsunami based on satellite image derivation which provided by USGS (2004 ).

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 120.0 120

100.0 100
Maximum wave height loss (%)

y = -0.019x + 100 y = -0.0143x + 98.514

R2 = 0.8273 R2 = 0.9844

Maximum wave height loss (%)

80.0 80

60.0 60

40.0
40

20.0
20

0.0
0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Distance from shore (m)
Distance from shore (m )

(a) Base on Aceh tsunami 2004 data (b) Base on adjustment

Figure 1. The equations to estimate maximum wave height loss

People distribution

The concept of people distribution estimation is combining statistic data with land-use map to
enhance people distribution from village (in original data source, in bahasa: desa) level. We
conduct the estimation in two ways weighting calculations, which are differences by day and
night time. The concept of people distribution estimation describe as Figure 2.

The enhance people distribution from village level to land-use derive from the proportion of
land-use in the village. The equation of people distribution in land-use level is shown in
below.

If the village has all land-use polygons:

Xd = as (Xd) + bag(Xd) + cfs(Xd) + db(Xd) + efr (Xd) + fmg(Xd) + gw(Xd) + ho(Xd) (4)

If the village without all land-use polygons:

as bag efr
Xd = ( )X d + Xd + Xd (5)
as + bag + efr as + bag + efr as + bag + efr

If in the village has two or more the same land-use polygon, and village has not all land-use:

Ls1 as Ls as Lag 1 bag Lag 2 bag

Xd = ( )X d + 2 ( )X d + ( )X d + ( ) X d (6)
LS as + bag LS as + bag Lag as + bag Lag as + bag

Where,
Xd = Total population in village level (statistic data)
as = weighting settlement area
bag = weighting agriculture area
cfs = weighting fisheries area
db = weighting beach area
efr = weighting forest area
fmg = weighting mangrove area
gw = weighting water area

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ho = weighting other land-use area
LS = Large total settlement polygon in the desa
Ls1 = Large settlement polygon 1
Ls2 = Large settlement polygon 2
Lag = Large of agriculture polygon in the desa
Lag1 = Large of agriculture polygon 1
Lag2 = Large of agriculture polygon 2
as + bag + cfs +db+efr+fmg+gw+ ho= 1

+
People in village Level Landuse data

People in landuse Level

Figure 2. The concept of people distribution estimation base on statistic and land-use data

The result of people distribution estimation is in people density values (in units: people/ha),
and then will be used in the people at risk calculation, see equation (7).

PeopleatRisk = Peopledensity × l arg eofinundation (7)

The land-use damage estimation value then calculated by overlaying inundation maps and
land-use maps.

Information System
The information system is constructed based on all the modeling and estimation value results.
It contains people at risk and land-use damage estimation in 12 districts (in bahasa:
kabupaten) of 4 provinces along the South Coast of Java. This information system is user-
friendly, it will loading and previewing the information about people at risk and land-use
damage values, tables, graphics, and maps by just clicking in the link-panel of province,
districts, and tsunami scenario.

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RESULT AND DISCUSSION

Validation Tsunami Inundation Modeling

The modeling results of tsunami inundation using two kind equations of tsunami wave height
loss have been validated using inundation maps of 2004 Aceh tsunami from USGS which
based on satelit images, see figure 3. The result shows the inundation from modeling using
equation (3) is nearly similar with inundation maps from USGS (see figure 3.b). The equation
(2) actually also can be use for describing the inundations, but seems weak in the flat area (see
figure 3.a). According to these results, the equation (3) is better than equation (2) when its
applied to the equation (1) to producing inundation maps, and then in the next step, this is use
for estimating wave height loss based on distance from the shore.

a. Inundation map based on equation (2) b. Inundation map based on equation (3)
USGS
Model Inundation
Figure 3. Validation results of inundation maps which calculated from two kinds of wave
height loss equation

People at Risk Estimation

The people at risk estimation is calculated by overlaying the inundations maps to the people
distributions maps. The results shows some affected regencies along south coast of Java (in
bahasa: kabupaten) from all scenarios.

District of Cianjur, Cilacap, and Trenggalek, in respectively is the most affected area
according to estimation results in respectively from scenario 1, scenario 2, and scenario 3. For
this moment, We have only provide the information the total people who live at risk. Another
categories information like age, sex, knowledge, and soon will considered to provide in the
next future research.

According to estimation results from scenario 1, District of Cianjur has 16 village potential to
affected by tsunami inundation. The village of Jayagiri has highest risk, with 3,081 people at
risk during day time and 3,681 people at risk during night time. See figure 4.

According to estimation results from scenario 2, District of Cilacap has 53 village potential to
affected by tsunami inundation. The village of Cilacap has highest risk, with 8,800 people at
risk during day time and 11,051 people at risk during night time. See figure 5.

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According to estimation results from scenario 3, District of Trenggalek has 15 village
potential to affected by tsunami inundation. The village of Tasikmadu has highest risk, with
6,360 people at risk during day time and 8,019 people at risk during night time. See figure 6.

People at People at
Village Risk (Day) Risk (Night)
Jayagiri 3081 3681
Sukapura 2795 2690
Jayapura 2607 3202
Saganten 1972 2301
Kertajadi 1085 1117
Talagasari 748 604
Sirnagalih 635 493
Cisalak 618 575
Megarsari 495 397
Kertasari 438 338
Sukamanah 341 369
Karangwangi 279 307
Cidamar 246 343
Sinarlaut 150 222
Bojongkaso 3 8
Panyindangan 3 0

Figure 4. Table and chart people at risk in Kabupaten Cianjur based on scenario 1

People at People at
Village Risk (Day) Risk (Night)
Cilacap 8800 11051
Tambakreja 7765 7479
Tegalkatilayu 6383 6268
Sidakaya 1647 1022
Mertasinga 1481 1072
Bunton 1202 933
Gumilir 1116 250
Tegalrejo 650 659
Donan 633 630
Kutawaru 594 195
Wlahar 464 0
Slarang 404 530
Menganti 366 121
Glempangpasir 343 34
Ujungalang 338 389

Figure 5. Table and chart people at risk in 15 Desa Kabupaten Cilacap based on scenario 2

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 People at People at
Village Risk (Day) Risk (Night)
Tasikmadu 6360 8019
Karanggandu 2068 2080
Margomulyo 2031 2326
Prigi 1075 603
Nglebeng 466 167
Masaran 382 247
Wonocoyo 368 190
Munjungan 265 192
Craken 96 118
Ngulungwetan 67 45
Banjar 58 2
Bendoroto 58 52
Tawing 25 0
Ngulungkulon 15 55
Watulimo 7 0

Figure 6. Table and chart people at risk in Kabupaten Trenggalek based on scenario 3

Land-use Damage Estimation

The land-use damage estimation is also important because when its damage affected by
tsunami inundation, its also will cost material and people life in the end.

According to the estimations results from scenario 1, District of Cianjur has 1,858.3 ha paddy
field potential to destroyed by tsunami inundation (see figure 7). When if it has 4 ton/ha
productivity per crop-season, this district will losing 7,433. 2 tons paddy or approximately
7.43 milliard rupiah {equal with $US 826.000 } at this moment. This example only derived
from paddy field aspect. It could imagine the total loss from all land-use including the budget
calculations for its rehabilitation.

The result of research for land-use damage in most affected district in every scenario shows in
the figure 7, 8, and 9.

Land-use Damage Area (ha)

Paddy Field 1858.3
Cropland 668.6
Plantation 227.7
Shrub 224
Settlement 176.6
Water 132.8
Grass 71.3
Beach 39.2
Forest 7.2

Figure 7. Table and chart land-use damage in Kabupaten Cianjur based on scenario 1

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Land-use Damage Area (ha)
Paddy Field 2488
Water 1691.7
Mangrove 1123
Grass 423.5
Settlement 389.2
Forest 127
Beach 90.7
Cropland 76.5
Plantation 59.5
Shrub 52.9

Figure 8. Table and chart land-use damage in Kabupaten Cilacap based on scenario 2

Land-use Damage Area (ha)

Paddy Field 439.6
Plantation 209.3
Cropland 142.8
Shrub 139.3
Settlement 112.3
Forest 68.8
Beach 58.7
Water 43.7
Grass 1.4
Other Vegetation 0.5

Figure 9. Table and chart land-use damage in Kabupaten Trenggalek based on scenario 3

Information System
The first prototype of early warning systems including decision support systems has been
developed as a single simulation program to showing information about the people at risk and
land-use damage estimation which calculated from some scenarios. There are 3 scenarios for
this case study.

There are six window-panels of information in this program. The first window is showing
animation of tsunami propagation from its epicenter's location of source. The second window
is showing inundation maps. The third and fourth window is showing table contains people at
risk estimation value, and land-use damage estimation value, in respectively. The fifth and

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sixth window is showing graphic contains people at risk chart and land-use damage chart, in
respectively. See figure 10.

This simulation program is user-friendly, there some panel option for choosing the province,
district, district, and tsunami scenario, then when clicking the simulation command-panel, the
sixth window-panel will showing informations automatically at the same time.

This information system will supports and help the local (district, district) government to
manage or planning for evacuation planning, and also rapidly calculating the budget for
rehabilitation.

Figure 10. Information system people at risk and land-use damage estimation

The inundation maps in three most dangerous districts base on every scenario is shown below

(a) (b) (c)

Figure 11. The inundation maps in three most dangerous districts base on every scenario,
scenario 1 in Cianjur (a), Scenario 2 in Cilacap (b), and Scenario 3 in Trenggalek (c)

CONCLUSION

There are some results in this research. They are validated tsunami inundation modelling,
people distribution estimation method, information about people at risk and land-use damage
estimation in 12 districts in South Coast of Java and the information system. The tsunami
inundation model from Cosso and Federici Formula (2006) has been modified in this research
with change roughness parameters with wave height loss by distance from shore. The
equation 3 of wave height loss gives the similar inundation maps with inundation map

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tsunami 2004. The method of people distribution has not been yet validated, because difficult
to make validation. The method does not need validation if the proportion of weighting factor
is good value. How to get exact and appropriate value of weighting is need more adjustment
to have a better result. In the people distribution estimation, settlement area is very important
land-use because this land-use indicate where the people live is. Develop the method to make
a better settlement classification from Earth Observation also needed to have better people
distribution. The researches of settlement classification base on remote sensing data have
been developed by some researchers (Sutton, et al. (2001), Martinuzzi, et al. (2006), and Lu,
et al. (2006)). People at risk, land-use damage estimation and information system could help
districts government to manage their people, budget, and the other mitigation management.

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