POPULISM AND

POLITICAL TRUST

LAO l RUBIO l YUBOKMEE

POPULISM
Defined as a discourse, political style, and a
"thin" ideology
Core of Populism: "The People" vs. "The Elite"

Antagonistic relationship shapes populism's key

characteristics
Legitimization as representing "the people"
Style characterized by simplicity and directness in
language, analyses, and policies
Mood infused with a sense of political renewal
Resulting in charismatic leadership and centralized
organizational structure
(Li, 2018)
POLITICAL
TRUST
individuals' evaluation of political institutions
based on their normative expectations.
Linkages between Political Trust and Populism
Political trust more directly and comprehensively reflects individual
proneness to populism, and influences both the external and internal
supply of populism.

Distrust and Non-Institutionalized Engagement

Distrusting voters often abstain from traditional elections.

Non-institutionalized activities empower populist parties to mobilize
public demands and enhance their success chances.
What factors contribute to the
high political trust in the
Philippines, and how do citizens'
subjective health and political
values play a role in this?
Individual subjective health, coupled with political attitudes,
particularly those leaning towards authoritarianism, are key
determinants of this trust (Pernia, 2022).

“Healthy authoritarians are more likely to express political trust.”

Explaining the High Political Trust in the Philippines: The Role

of Citizens’ Subjective Health and Political Values
Distribution of Political Trust in Different Institutions in the Philippines, 2001-2020
 Contending approaches to political trust

Institutional
refers to citizens' confidence
in government and
institutions, impacting
political support and the
effectiveness of the political
system.
Cultural
trust is rooted in cultural values and
beliefs acquired through
socialization, influencing how
individuals interpret institutional
outcomes
A Typology of Citizen’s Health and Attitudes to Democracy
Health of Citizens and Institutional Trust

The Philippines' healthcare system grapples with challenges including

underfunding and limited access, exacerbated by a brain drain of skilled
professionals. There's an ongoing debate over the government's role, with
some advocating for a more private-focused approach, while the system's
performance is viewed as a measure of the government's commitment to
citizens' well-being and development.
Protective institutions like the police and military have historically enjoyed
political trust among Filipino citizens, a trend that continues even before the
Duterte administration's controversial policies.

The emergence of Rodrigo Duterte in 2016 brought attention to illiberalism in

the country, reflecting underlying authoritarian values among citizens. Rather
than penalizing the government, authoritarian-leaning citizens tend to place
greater trust in political institutions, potentially indicating a preference for
order and a willingness to consider illiberal options.
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Distribution of Political Trust in the Philippines (2019)

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Healthy Democrats and Healthy Authoritarians in the Philippines (2019)

Predictors of Political Trust
in the Philippines
Conclusion
The sustained high levels of trust in Rodrigo Duterte's administration may be
attributed to the activation of citizens' latent authoritarian values, as revealed
through the study's unique measure combining health and normative dimensions of
political trust

The surge in public trust during the Duterte regime suggests a resonance with the
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public's desire for strong leadership, coupled with a perception of legitimacy due
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to the government's responsiveness to decisions.

 How does support for
strong leadership affect
institutional trust in
post-authoritarian
democracies?
 Studies suggest that
fostering trust in public
institutions is contingent
upon citizens’ favourable
evaluation of the
government’s institutional
performance
 However, the resurgence
of leaders with ‘populist’
tendencies presents an
empirical puzzle, which may
reveal intriguing political
patterns in the context of
comparative
democratization
 Citizens' psychological
disposition favoring order
and authority can enhance
existing institutions and
promote political stability,
challenging conventional
top-down perspectives in
existing literature often
dominated by elite and
expert-driven viewpoints.
Citizen support for strong leadership is a
yearning for political reform and stability
"Citizens in post- "Post-authoritarian
authoritarian democracies democracies' public favors
may hold positive attitudes strong leadership, which
toward existing regimes aligns with their aspirations,
and ideologies due to signaling a preference for
historical legacies, nostalgic responsive leaders and
rhetoric, and democratic efficient governance."
failures."
 Indonesia
For decades, the Indonesian
political system remains ‘the
arena of old elites and their
protégés—in spite of free
elections and the rise of
parties and parliaments’
(Heryanto & Hadiz, 2005).
Philippines
At the start of the millennium,
the Philippines is one of
political pessimism, instability
and democratic regression.
Politics and citizens’ institutional trust in
Southeast Asia: Indonesia

Indonesia became an In the 2014 election, two

The reformasi has not Indonesia’s Illiberal Turn ‘overtly religious state ‘populist’ presidential
adequately deal with
and paved the way for candidates—Prabowo
the Pancasila
greater state Subianto, an ‘authoritarian-
indoctrination project of
involvement in populist’ and Joko Widodo
the late dictator, which
enforcing moral norms —a ‘mod- erate populist’,
paved the way for
based both on Islamic both rose to national
Indonesia’s democratic
values and a prominence under the
decline (Bourchier,
conservative reading of context of public disil-
2019)
indigenous culture’ lusionment with the
(Bourchier, 2019, p. incumbent president
713). Yudhoyono (Aspinall &
Mietzner, 2014).
As a result, Indonesian politics has been marked by the presence of three-track
populism rivalling each other

Chauvinism
Islamism
Technocratic developmentalism

(Mietzner, 2020).
Politics and citizens’ institutional trust in
Southeast Asia: Philippines

Arroyo’s State of Election of Duterte Assumption to

EDSA 2 Arroyo’s Presidential
Emergency Aquino III office
Election was marred by
massive cheating and
violence.
That when citizens express high levels of support for strong leadership, it
makes them express greater confidence towards political institutions.

First, individuals who are satisfied with their life, with high social trust and
politically interested, are more likely to increase their institutional trust. In
contrast, respondents who are older, with more education and with more
income are less trustful with public institutions.

Philippines and Indonesia, exhibit favourable support for strong leaders

that in turn enhances their institutional trust. Despite known for being one
of the most corrupt, clientelist, and patronage-entrenched democracies in
Southeast Asia (Aspinall & Hicken, 2020; Berenschot & Aspinall, 2020)
‘Delegative democratic attitude’ can be harnessed into a constructive force
despite its tendency towards ultrapresidentialism (Croissant, 2003; Kang &
Lee, 2018; Larkiåns, 1998; O’Donnell, 1994; Pernia & Panao, 2022; Taş,
2015).

The role of strong leaders and strong leadership as measures of citizen

expression of political stability.
The empirical findings may also suggest that Filipinos and Indonesians, just
like their East Asian counterparts, are psychologically wired for a hybrid or
even an autocratic pol- itical system premised on paternalism and social
harmony (Shin, 2013, 2020). Yet, in spite of that hybridity, they are also
attuned with democratic values of political partici- pation (Choi & Woo,
2016).

The results may underpin Duterte’s popularity since his war on drugs may
have stemmed from the notion that Filipinos hold strong views of
materialists over post-materialists’ values (Haerpfer et al., 2020)
Deadly Populism:
How Local
Political
Outsiders Drive
Duterte’s War on
Drugs in the
Philippines
Outsider mayors received 40 percent lower public works
appropriations, and, in turn, executed Duterte’s drug war much
more aggressively.
Outsider-led municipalities had 40 percent more anti-drug
incidents and 60 percent more extra-judicial killings by police.
The results illustrate an important trade-off between patronage
politics and corruption (politics-as-usual), and violent
democratic backsliding.

Political
Insiders and
Outsiders
are defined in terms of whether one
is part of, or excluded from, the
patronage networks that have
secured the majority in the Batasan
(House of Representatives), or the
presidential office in the
Malacañang Palace.
Insiders
those who in 2016 had access to a
network with preferential access to
pork largess.
The early Duterte years and three
years prior, the insider/outsider
designation oriented around the
Liberal Party.
Outsiders
do not enter office with a robust,
preexisting apparatus of allies in other
parts of government.
Independent and minor parties
“Outsider leaders without ties to
existing party machines or a
robust informal network of local
allies can instead rely on local
politicians who themselves do
not have access to these same
clientelist, establishment means
of politics.”
Aggressively implementing the policy can allow local politicians to signal their
loyalty to the national leader and reap electoral benefits if they are able to
incorporate themselves into the leader’s emerging patronage network or if
the policy remains popular down the line.

Duterte’s Drug War

80% of the population support the

drug war

Support for extrajudicial killings Below 50%

When local politicians implement a policy of this nature with a
heavy hand, they make it more difficult to distance themselves
from the policy or the leader if they later become unpopular.

Fully implementing policy initiatives that involve illegal practices

or human rights violations can even leave local elites vulnerable
to future prosecution if the political winds change.
Despite the risks of implementing the signature policy, there also exist
important potential benefits. Aggressively implementing the policy can allow
local politicians to credibly signal their loyalty to the populist national politician.

This will translate to:

Future access to funds if the leader is able to establish a new

patronage network or an increased likelihood of the national leader
campaigning on the local leader’s behalf.
To be able to effectively claim credit for supporting the policy if it
remains popular with the public during the next election cycle.
In recent years, elections have swept political “outsiders” into power across a
wide range of countries.

While the nature of these leaders’ policy platforms differs significantly, their
campaigns all rely on charismatic appeals and rhetoric centered on bucking
“entrenched,” “elite,” or “establishment” political systems .
 A non-establishment leader can push
How, then, do forward their policy agenda because of the
outsider national incentives facing local politicians who are
excluded from existing patronage or party
leaders overcome networks, leading them to bandwagon on
institutional the leader’s signature policy, even if they
did not win office by campaigning for this
opposition to policy in the first place.

implement norm-
defying, By aggressively implementing the leader’s
controversial signature policy, local
constitutionally outsiders inextricably link themselves to
dubious policy the policy, signaling their loyalty to the
national leader.
initiatives?
Based on the 2016 Philippine election campaign, geo-coded data from Philippine
National Police (PNP) crime blotter reports and ACLED data on extra-judicial
killings, mayors from independent or minority parties executed President Rodrigo
Duterte’s signature “War on Drugs” much more aggressively than those
associated with the establishment Liberal Party.

The Philippines is a case with an especially weak party system, but even in
countries with more stable ideological cleavages, national-level outsiders need to
realign the structures of politics to have a sustained influence.

Thus, the political incentives for marginalized lower-level officials to

independently drive forward signature policies in order to build connections with
a populist leader are likely to be at play.
Politicians in the Philippines commonly switch their affiliation to the new leader’s party
shortly after the election (when the leader is still popular) in an attempt to show their
support for the new regime.

Despite all this party switching, the politicians with enduring insider connections always
maintained a heavy advantage in the subsequent elections. But in the aftermath of
Duterte’s elections, it was the former outsiders that for the first time had a distinct
advantage in the midterm elections.

Policies around illegal drug enforcement. Harsh government responses to drug trafficking
and usage are often brutally popular among voters.

Local political incentives turn out to be highly influential in how a signature agenda item is
implemented. Far from the lofty rhetoric, local outsiders, who struggle to access patronage
resources, enthusiastically implement an outsider leader’s signature policy in order to gain
the upper hand come re-election time.
 1. The benefits are most likely to outweigh
For which local the risks for local politicians who have
weak existing ties to establishment political
elites, then, will networks
it be worth the
2. Without a safe alternative pathway to re-
risk to fully election that relies on patronage
implement the distribution, local outsiders may be more
willing to gamble on riding the leader’s
policies popularity with the public.
espoused by a
3. Populists are more likely to find
populist national enthusiastic local allies in contexts where
leader? there is adequate decentralization in party-
based patronage systems.
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 References
Li, A. (2018). Role of Political Trust in the Rise of Populism. https://www.atlantis-
press.com/article/25905357.pdf

Pernia, R. A. (2022). Explaining the High Political Trust in the Philippines: The Role of
Citizens’ Subjective Health and Political Values. Philippine Political Science Journal, 43(2),
192–223. https://doi.org/10.1163/2165025x-bja10034