Journal of Cleaner Production 430 (2023) 139768

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Journal of Cleaner Production

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jclepro

Analysis of emission characteristics and driving forces of air pollutants and

GHG from coal-fired industrial boilers in China
Ke Cheng a, *, Xinyue Zhou a, Yan Wang b, **, Jingyu Li a, Yu Shangguan a, Huanjia Liu a,
Jishao Jiang a, Peng Yi c
a
School of Environment, Key Laboratory of Yellow River and Huai River Water Environment and Pollution Control, Ministry of Education, Henan Key Laboratory for
Environmental Pollution Control, Henan Normal University, Xinxiang, Henan, 453007, PR China
b
School of Public Health, Xinxiang Medical University, Laboratory of Environmental Pollutants and Health Effects Assessment, Xinxiang, 453003, PR China
c
State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing, 100012, PR China

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Handling editor: Jian Zuo Coal burning is considered to be the main anthropogenic source of air pollutants, which can cause serious
environmental pollution. As one of the important coal burning sources, coal-fired boilers have become the
Keywords: important challenges of the policy of “carbon peaking” and “carbon neutrality” of Chinese government. In this
Air pollutants paper, the emission inventory of air pollutants (TSP, SO2, NOX, VOCs), and greenhouse gases (GHG, including
Coal-fired industrial boiler
CO2, CH4, N2O) from coal-fired industrial boilers (CFIB) from 2006 to 2020 are established by using the “bottom-
Greenhouse gases
up” emission factor method. Besides, Kaya identical equation and Logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) model
Emission characteristics
Driving factor are used to quantify the driving forces of the changing tendency in pollutants emission based on five driving
factors, which include pollution production coefficient (f), control technology level (β), economy (GOV), indus­
trial energy intensity (e) and coal consumption structure of industrial boilers (s). Combined with existing rele­
vant policies, the future emission tendency of air pollutants and GHG in 2025 and 2030 is projected. The result
shows that policy adjustment has a significant impact on pollutant emission trends. In 2020, emissions of TSP,
SO2, NOX, VOCs and GHG from CFIB in China are 679.5 kt, 644.7 kt, 603.9 kt, 40.7 kt and 4.4 × 105 kt CO2e,
respectively. Control technology level is the main factor to the emission reduction of SO2 and TSP, which has
caused a decrease of 4278.6 kt and 3337.3 kt in emissions of SO2 and TSP compared to those of 2006 respec­
tively, while the influencing effect on NOX, GHG and VOCs was relatively weak. In addition, in the scenario of
improved control technology, pollutant emissions could be reduced by 62.6%–94.9% until 2030.

1. Introduction
China is a major coal consumer, the coal consumption can account
for 56.8% of total 4.98 billion tons energy consumption in 2020 (NBS,
2020a). Industrial boilers are the main energy processing and conver­
sion equipment in China (Shen et al., 2017). By 2019, there were 373,
000 coal-fired industrial boilers (CFIB) in China, with the total capacity
of 393,853 t h− 1. As the main boiler type in the industrial sector (Tian
et al., 2012, 2010), coal-fired industrial boilers are widely used in
various industries, mainly distributed in densely populated and rela­
tively developed industrial areas (Tong et al., 2021, 2020).
Coal combustion processes can discharge large amounts of pollut­
ants, such as TSP, SO2, NOX (Guo et al., 2018; Xue et al., 2016b),
greenhouse gases (GHG, including CO2, CH4 and N2O) (Feng and Fang,
2022; Paraschiv et al., 2020; Tian et al., 2013) and volatile organic
compounds (VOCs) (Liu et al., 2020; Zhang et al., 2020). Some pollut­
ants can occur photochemical reactions in the atmosphere and lead to
secondary pollution, finally bring serious harm to human health (Geng
et al., 2019; Liang et al., 2019). Since 2007, GHG emissions of China had
ranked the first in the world, which attracted extensive attention at
home and abroad (Li et al., 2017). With the signing of the Paris Agree­
ment in 2015, the Chinese government has promised to achieve the
“carbon peak” by 2030 and “carbon neutrality” by 2060 (Li et al., 2020,
2017). Therefore, systematic analysis of the emission characteristics of
air pollutants and GHG from CFIB is urgently needed to study its impact
on ambient air quality.

* Corresponding author. School of Environment, Henan Normal University, Xinxiang, 453007, PR China.
** Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: 18858154190@163.com (K. Cheng), kristen213@126.com (Y. Wang).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.139768
Received 20 September 2023; Received in revised form 23 October 2023; Accepted 13 November 2023
Available online 15 November 2023
0959-6526/© 2023 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
K. Cheng et al. Journal of Cleaner Production 430 (2023) 139768

In recent years, the Chinese government has formulated a series of ∑

policies and action plans to control pollutant emissions from CFIB,
including the “Three-Year Action Plan” (GOSCC, 2018), the “strategic
action plan for energy development” (GOSCC, 2014), etc. These policies
aim to adjust the energy consumption structure and carry out compre­
hensive improvement of boilers. At present, there still has no emission
standard of VOCs and GHG for industrial boilers. According to current
studies, existing air pollution control devices also have the collaborative
effects on VOCs and GHG emission reduction (Cheng et al., 2019; Feng
and Fang, 2022; Sun et al., 2021; Wu et al., 2018). Such as the optimi­
zation of energy structure, energy conservation and consumption
reduction, could reduce the emission of VOCs and GHG to a certain
extent.
The emission characteristics of air pollutants from industrial boilers
have been studied continuously by some research teams (Tong et al.,
2021; Wang et al., 2022; Xue et al., 2016a; Yan et al., 2017a). Fossil fuel
combustion sources are one of the main anthropogenic emissions sour­
ces of VOCs. Previous studies on VOCs mostly focused on coal-fired
power plants (Cheng et al., 2018; Yan et al., 2017b, 2016), there was
a lack of studies on CFIB, and most of them were research on the dis­
tribution of VOCs species (Geng et al., 2019; Yang et al., 2020). The
tendency of VOCs emission characteristics and driving factors has not
received enough attention. CFIB have been installed more and more
advanced air pollution control devices (APCDs), such as Fabric Filters
(FFs), wet flue gas de-sulfurization (WFGD), selective catalytic reduction
(SCR), etc. (Liu et al., 2020), and formed a relatively mature pollution
control technology system in China (Xu et al., 2021). While removing
conventional pollutants, current APCDs can also lead to the collabora­
tive emission reduction of VOCs (Cheng et al., 2019, 2018; Liu et al.,
2020). However, the impact of APCDs on VOCs emissions has not been
considered in the existing studies (Zhou et al., 2020), which will lead to
deviations during emission estimation. In addition, industrial boilers are
also one of the important sources of GHG (Shen et al., 2017), but the
GHG emission characteristics of industrial boilers are rarely discussed.
LMDI model is often used to quantify the driving factors of GHG emis­
sions in China (Guo et al., 2021; Wang et al., 2019, 2014), yet it’s rarely
used in industrial boilers and other pollutants. In order to make up above
shortcomings, the S-curve and Kaya, LMDI models are applied to analyze
the emission characteristics and driving factors of air pollutants from
CFIB. This study can provide basic data for the formulation of future
industrial boilers and carbon emission reduction policies, and further
improve the GHG emission database.
2. Calculation methods and data sources
2.1. Calculation methods
2.1.1. Air pollutants
The “bottom-up” emission factor method is applied to estimate the
emissions of air pollutants, and the S-curve is used to quantify the
changes in the activity of boiler type, boiler capacity and pollutant
control technology level. The calculation formula is as follows (Liu et al.,
2022; Yue, 2019):
fi = Wj × fi,j (3)
∑
ηi = Wm × ηi,m (4)
where j is boiler type; m is de-dust/de-sulfurization/de-nitration control
technology type; fi,j is the pollution production coefficient of pollutant i
of boiler type j; Wj is the proportion of boiler type (%); Wm is the
installation proportion of control technology (%); ηi,m is the removal
efficiency of pollutant i by control technology m, %.
( )
−
(t− t0 )2
( ) 2sk 2
W = W(ak ) − W(bk ) e + W(bk ) (5)
where W is the proportion of boiler type, capacity or control technology
at t (%); Wak is the proportion of boiler type, capacity or control tech­
nology at the starting point of technological diffusion (%); Wbk is the
proportion of boiler type, capacity or control technology at the end of
technological diffusion (%); t0 is the start time of technology diffusion
(a); sk is curve parameter. In order to better reflect the emission level of
CFIB in China, the influence of different boiler types on emission factors
is mainly considered. And emission factors and removal efficiency of
pollution control facilities that are closer to the actual situation through
a large number of literature research are selected. The pollution pro­
duction coefficient and the removal efficiency of pollution control fa­
cilities are shown in Tables 1 and 2.
2.1.2. GHG emission factor
The global warming potential value (GWP) is used to convert CH4
and N2O into carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) to study the emission of
GHG (Li et al., 2017). The emission factor of CO2 is calculated according
to the low calorific value of fuel, the potential unit heat value carbon
content and carbon oxidation rate of fuel by using the method proposed
in IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas. The calculation
method is shown in Formula (6) (Li et al., 2022):
44
EFCO2 = NCV × CC × OF × × 10− 6
(6)
22
where EFCO2 is the emission factor of CO2 (kg kg− 1 or kg m− 3); NCV is the
average low heat value of fuel (kJ kg− 1 or kJ m− 3); CC is the carbon
content per unit heat value of fuel (t TJ− 1); OF is the carbon oxidation
rate of fuel. Parameters required for CO2 calculation and emission fac­
tors value of CH4 and N2O are shown in Table S3 and Table S4.
2.2. Activity data and data sources
Data on the industry output value (Gov) and industrial coal con­
sumption are obtained from China Statistical Yearbook. As a large
Table 1
Pollutants production coefficient of air pollutants from CFIB and GFIB.
Boiler types TSP SO2 NOX VOCs Sources

CFIB PC 7.5A 18S 6.79 0.18 (He, 2018; MEP, 2010;

Ei = A × EFi (1)
(kg CFB 5.6A 15S 4.01 Wang et al., 2021; Xue
− 1
t ) GF 1.4A 16S 2.95 et al., 2017, 2016a; Yue
where i is the type of pollutants; Ei is the emissions of pollutant i; A is fuel − 3
GFIB (g m ) 0.03 0.0096 0.25a/ 0.12 et al., 2018; Zhao et al.,
consumption; EFi is the emission factor of pollutant i after collaborative 0.59b 2010)
removal. Note:
( ) ( ) ( ) A represents the ash content of coal; S represents the sulfur content of coal; CFIB
EFi = fi × 1 − ηi, TSP × 1 − ηi, SO × 1 − ηi, NO (2)
2 X denotes coal-fired industrial boilers; GFIB denotes gas-fired industrial boilers;
GF denotes grate fired boilers; CFB denotes circulating fluidized bed boiler; PC
where fi is the emission factor of pollutants without control devices, also denotes pulverized coal.
called the pollution production coefficient; ηi is the collaborative a
Represents NOx concentration with low NOx combustion is less than 30 mg
removal efficiency of pollutants by TSP/SO2/NOX pollution control fa­ m− 3.
b
cilities, %. Represents NOx concentration with low NOx combustion is less than 80 mg
m− 3.

2
K. Cheng et al. Journal of Cleaner Production 430 (2023) 139768

Table 2 (e) and coal consumption structure of industrial boilers (s).

Removal efficiency of pollution control facilities, %. ( ) ( )
Aindustry Aboiler
Species TSP SO2 NOX VOCs Sources E = f × (1 − η) × Gov × × = f βGov es (7)
Gov Aindustry
FFs 99.2 – – − 29.8 (Chen et al., 2019; He, 2018;
WET 89.3 15.0 – – MEP, 2010; Peng et al., 2021; where f is the pollutant production coefficient of CFIB, which reflects the
ESP 97.0 − 7.5 Tong et al., 2021; Wang et al.,
– –
change of the boiler type and boiler capacity; η is the comprehensive
MDR/CYC 69.0 – – – 2015, 2021; Xiong et al., 2016;
EFs 99.8 – – – Xu et al., 2021; Xu et al., 2017; removal efficiency of control technology and β= 1− η reflects the
WFGD – 92.5 – 12.7 Xue et al., 2016a) upgrading and transformation of control technology; Gov is the industrial
SDA – 50.0 – – GDP, which reflects the economic changes of the industrial industry; s =
CFB-FGD 70.0
– – –
Aboiler /Aindustry is the proportion of coal consumption of industrial boilers
FD – 20.0 – –
DFGD – 70.0 – – in the coal consumption of the industrial industry, which reflects the
LNB – – 20.0 – coal consumption structure of industrial boilers; e = Aindustry /Gov is in­
SCR – – 80.0 60.7 dustrial energy intensity, which reflects technological innovation.
SNCR – – 40.0 –
SCR + – – 50.0 –
SNCR 2.4.2. LMDI model
Other de- – – 20.0 – LMDI model is used to quantify the relative contribution of driving
nitration factors to the change of total emission of air pollutants. The change in
Note: FFs denotes Fabric Filters; WET denotes wet scrubbers; ESP denotes total emission is evaluated according to five driving factors: pollution
Electrostatic precipitator; MDR denotes mechanical dust removal; CYC denotes production coefficient (f), control technology level (β), industrial
cyclone separator; EFs denotes electrostatic fabric filters; WFGD denotes wet flue economy (Gov), industrial energy intensity (e) and coal consumption
gas de-sulfurization; SDA denotes spray dryer absorber; CFB-FGD denotes structure (s). ΔE is decomposed by additive decomposition to calculate
circulating fluid bed-flue gas de-sulfurization; FD denotes furnace de- the contribution of various influencing factors. e reflects the process of
sulfurization; DFGD denotes dry flue gas de-sulfurization; LNB denotes low technological innovation, which includes the growth of GDP and the
NOx burner; SCR denotes selective catalytic reduction; SNCR denotes selective progress of gas and coal reduction technologies. Specifically, it refers to
non-catalytic reduction. Other denitrification technology refers to oxidation the elimination of equipment with high coal consumption and the
denitrification technology, adsorption method, and polymer non catalytic
introduction of clean energy such as natural gas. β reflects the upgrading
reduction (PNCR) denitrification technology, etc.
and renovation of control technology, namely the upgrading and reno­
vation of end treatment facilities.
amount of coal consumption is not included in the scope of environ­
mental statistics, this paper refers to the calculation method of industrial ΔE=Et − E0 =f t βt Gov t et st − f 0 β0 Gov 0 e0 s0 =feffect +βeffect +Gov, effect +eeffect +seffect
( t) ( t) ( ) ( t) ( t)
boiler coal consumption mentioned in previous studies (Wang et al., f β GOV t e s
2015; Yue, 2019; Zhao et al., 2012). Coal consumption of industrial = ωi (t)ln 0 + ωi (t)ln 0 + ωi (t)ln 0
+ ωi (t)ln 0 + ωi (t)ln 0
f β GOV e s
boilers is calculated according to the coal consumption and steel and (8)
cement output in the China Statistical Yearbook and China energy sta­
tistical yearbook (NBS, 2020b, 2020c). The parameters required for where ωi (t) = ln EEt −− Eln E0 . In Formula (8), Et and E0 represent the emissions
t 0

calculation are obtained from literature research (Dong, 2009; He et al., of air pollutants at time t and 0; feffect, βeffect, GOV,effect, seffect and eeffect
2022; Li et al., 2019; NBS, 2018). The activity data, including sulfur and respectively represent the fluctuation of pollutant emissions caused by
ash content, boiler capacity, boiler type and proportion of pollutant the change of pollution production coefficient, control technology level,
control technology, are shown in Tables S1-S2, S7–S9 and Figs. S1–S4. economy, industrial boiler coal consumption structure and industrial
Due to lack of data on the provincial penetration of control technology in energy intensity, which are estimated by using Formulas (9)–(13):
2020, the research on provincial emission characteristics in 2020 in this
paper is calculated by referring to the provincial control technology Et − E0 ft
feffect = × ln 0 (9)
level in 2017 (Gao et al., 2021). The provincial control technology level ln Et − ln E0 f
in 2017 is collated as shown in Fig. S3.
Et − E0 βt
βeffect = t 0
× ln 0 (10)
ln E − ln E β
2.3. Uncertainty analysis method
Et − E 0 GOV t
In order to quantify the uncertainty of emission inventory, the Monte GOV ,effect = × ln (11)
t
ln E − ln E 0
GOV 0
Carlo model is applied to analyze the uncertainty of air pollutant
emission inventory of coal-fired industrial boilers. The details of Monte E t − E0 et
Carlo model can be seen in our previous study (Wang et al., 2017). The eeffect = × ln 0 (12)
ln Et − ln E0 e
sampling times are set to 10,000 times, and the confidence level was
selected as 95%. The uncertainty parameters such as activity level and Et − E0 st
emission factor are set based on the judgment of this study and relevant seffect = t 0
× ln 0 (13)
ln E − ln E s
references, as shown in Table S5.
The contribution of different driving factors to the change value of
pollutant emission can be determined, the positive value means that the
2.4. Methods of driving factors analysis pollutant emission increases, and a negative value means that the
emission decreases.
2.4.1. Kaya identical equation
Kaya identical equation is used to evaluate the impact of various
factors on the emissions of air pollutants. The driving factors of the 2.5. Emission reduction scenario analysis
emissions from CFIB during 2006–2020 are identified according to
previous studies (Guo et al., 2021; Wang et al., 2019, 2014). The driving The environmental benefits brought by the elimination of low-
factors are decomposed as follows: pollution production coefficient (f), capacity coal-fired boilers, energy substitution and the improvement
control technology level (β), economy (Gov), industrial energy intensity of control technology level are analyzed based on the survey results of

3
K. Cheng et al.
relevant activity levels. Regarding previous studies (Tong et al., 2021;
Xue et al., 2016a), the baseline (BAU) scenario and the improved control
technology level (IPC-1 and IPC-2) scenario are set to quantify the
emission reduction of air pollutants from coal-fired industrial boilers.
The projection of energy consumption in the future is completely ac­
cording to the existing policies under the three scenarios of BAU, IPC-1,
and IPC-2. Under the three scenarios, coal consumption will continue to
be reduced according to the existing policies, and the emission reduction
benefits generated by coal to gas conversion will be demonstrated in this
study. Scenarios IPC-1 and IPC-2 are set to further quantifying the
emission reduction benefits generated by adjusting the total energy
consumption and upgrading control technology levels according to new
standards and policies on the basis of BAU scenario.
The BAU scenario assumes that the existing terminal control tech­
nology for coal-fired industrial boilers is maintained at the 2020 level.
The technical level and the total energy consumption will remain un­
changed based on the 2020 activity level. And the coal consumption of
industrial boilers will continue to be reduced in accordance with the
existing energy policy, so as to study the emission reduction benefits
brought by the policy of the conversation of coal to gas. The IPC-1
scenario assumes that new standards and policies are introduced and
emission standards are further tightened, this situation will lead to the
elimination of low-capacity coal-fired boilers and the wide application
of control facilities based on the BAU scenario. The latest emission
standards for boilers and related policy plans are fully considered in the
IPC-1 scenario to construct the most likely control scenarios for the
future. The IPC-2 scenario is more stringent than the IPC-1 scenario in
terms of the penetration of pollution control facilities and the efficiency
of control devices, in order to exploit the maximum reduction potential.
3. Results and discussion
3.1. Temporal features of air pollutants emission from CFIB
Fig. 1 shows the trend of air pollutant and GHG emissions from CFIB
over the years from 2006 to 2020. Combined with the development of
relevant standards and policies (Fig. 2), it can be seen that the trend of
pollutants emissions is closely related to policy adjustment. In 1983, the
standard of smoke and dust emission for boiler (SCC, 1983) was issued to
control the TSP emission concentration, and the de-dust measures were
mainly mechanical dust removal. In 1991 and 2014, the emission limits
were further declined, resulting in de-dust gradually being replaced by
efficient WET and FFs. The “13th Five-Year Plan” clearly put forward
specific target of the control of total coal consumption.
Fig. 1. Historical emission trend of air pollutants and GHG from CFIB.
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Journal of Cleaner Production 430 (2023) 139768
These countermeasures all can lead to a continuous decline in the
total TSP emission, with an average annual decline of 6.3%. Due to the
rapid development of de-dust measures, coal consumption increased
year by year before 2011, while the TSP emission still showed a
downward trend. In 2020, the TSP emissions decreased to 679.5 kt. The
change trends of SO2, NOx, VOCs and GHG were close to coal con­
sumption. SO2 and NOx control of coal-fired boilers were relatively late
in China, WFGD, CFB-FGD and other de-sulfurization measures were
adopted for CFIB during the “11th Five-Year Plan”, but the emissions
still increased with coal consumption because of low penetration. Since
2015, driven by the “13th Five-Year Plan” and the policy of ultra-low
emission, some CFIB with low-capacity and high-pollution were shut
down directly, the elimination rate of inefficient control technologies
was accelerated, and the emission of pollutants decreased significantly.
Compared with 2006, the emissions of NOx and SO2 in 2020 decreased
by 67.7% and 91.0%, respectively. The control technology has a positive
impact on the reduction of VOCs emission. The VOCs emission factor
reduced from 0.18 kg t− 1 in 2006 to 0.17 kg t− 1 in 2020, and the total
VOCs emission in 2020 was 40.7 kt, which was a 58.8% decrease
compared to that of 2006.
The emission trend of GHG from CFIB shows the positive correlation
to coal consumption, and demonstrate a trend of first increasing and
then decreasing. The emission of CO2 accounted for the dominant
contribution of GHG (CO2, CH4, N2O), with the proportion of 99.2%.
The total GHG emissions were 1.0 × 106 kt CO2e in 2006, and steadily
increased to 1.4 × 106 kt CO2e in 2011. In 2010, The State Council issued
the Guiding Opinions on Promoting Joint Prevention and Control of Air
Pollution to Improve Regional Air Quality, which proposed to strictly
control the emission of pollutants from coal burning and the construc­
tion of coal burning projects in key areas, and to carry out the pilot work
of controlling the total amount of regional coal consumption (GOSCC,
2010; Guo et al., 2018). Therefore, GHG emissions began to decrease in
2012, and reduced to 4.4 × 105 kt CO2e in 2020, down 67.8% compared
with that of 2011. In addition, the National Key Points of Air Pollution
Prevention and Control in 2019 pointed out that comprehensive
improvement of industrial boilers should be further carried out, and the
transformation of ultra-low emission of large-capacity boilers should be
promoted. Therein, the emissions of air pollutants from CFIB further
decreases after 2019.
3.2. Spatial distribution characteristics
Provincial emission features of air pollutants and GHG from CFIB are
shown in Fig. 3. The spatial distribution of pollutant emissions is closely
K. Cheng et al.
Fig. 2. Development history of relevant standards and policies for coal-fired boilers.
related to population density, provincial energy distribution and in­
dustrial production structure, and also is highly affected by coal con­
sumption, the application proportion of provincial pollution control
technology and the content of sulfur and ash in coal. Industrial boilers
are mainly used in cold areas in the north and economically developed
coastal areas (Zhao et al., 2010). From the spatial distribution of
pollutant emissions, TSP emissions are mainly concentrated in the re­
gions of Southwest, East and Northeast China, of which Inner Mongolia
contributed the most to TSP emissions, with the proportion of approxi­
mately 8.4%.
SO2 emissions from Southwest, Central China and Northwest China
are relatively prominent. The regions of Chongqing, Hunan and Yunnan
are the main contributors of SO2, with emissions of 81.1 kt, 57.8 kt and
52.8 kt respectively. The main reason for the heavy SO2 emission in
Chongqing is the high sulfur content, which ranked the second in China.
NOx emissions are mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia, which
can attribute to the large coal consumption, relatively backward
pollutant control technology and poor application of APCDs. It is also
widely distributed in Hunan, Guangdong and Yunnan, accounting for
17.8% of the totals, which may be related to the high industrial
intensity.
The regions of Inner Mongolia, Hunan, Shandong and Guangdong
are the main contribution regions of VOCs, accounting for 25.3% of the
totals. In 2015, Shandong province put forward ultra-low emission
guidelines for coal-fired boilers, requiring coal-fired boilers with a ca­
pacity greater than 10 t h− 1 to complete the transformation of ultra-low
emission by the end of 2018. Shandong Province is one of the major
provinces of coal consumption in China, but its pollutant emission level
is not outstanding because of strict policies and advanced pollution
control technology. Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Hainan have the
lowest emissions of various pollutants, which is mainly attributed to the
low level of coal consumption. As an example, about 99.8% of coal-fired
boilers in Beijing were eliminated from 2013 to 2017, and coal-fired
boilers had been replaced by gas-fired boilers as the main energy con­
sumption equipment (Chen et al., 2020).
Overall, the contribution of GHG emission is consistent with coal
consumption. GHG emissions are mainly distributed in regions with
large coal consumption, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Shandong, Henan,
Hunan and Guangdong are the provinces with the large GHG emission,
and the total emission of the six provinces account for 30.0% of the total
GHG emission in China.
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Journal of Cleaner Production 430 (2023) 139768
3.3. Driving force analysis based on LMDI
Fig. 4 shows the trend of changes of the parameters of total pollutant
emission (E), control technology level (β), economy (Gov), industrial
energy intensity (e) and coal consumption structure of industrial boilers
(s) over time, after quantifying above factors in 2006 as 1. In general, the
total emissions of various pollutants show a downward trend. The in­
dustrial energy intensity (e) decreased by nearly 51.7% from 2006 to
2020. The proportion of coal consumption in China has decreased year
by year, but coal consumption is still increasing. In recent years, under
the control of the government, the coal consumption of CFIB was
continuously reduced after 2011, and the pollution control technology
level was continuously improved. The comprehensive removal effi­
ciency of SO2, NOX, TSP and VOCs increased from 15.3%, 0.0%, 75.8%
and − 3.3% in 2006 to 82.5%, 26.7%, 93.9% and 2.5% in 2020,
respectively.
Based on the LMDI model, the contribution of different driving fac­
tors to the air pollutants and GHG emissions are shown in Fig. 5. On the
whole, during the “11th Five-Year Plan” period, economic development
was the dominant factor, causing an increase in pollutant emissions.
After 2011, the change in coal consumption proportion, energy intensity
and control technology level of CFIB neutralized these increases and led
to a decline in pollutant emissions. Economic development (Gov) was the
primary driver for the increase of pollutant emissions from CFIB. Gov
increased from 9223.58 billion RMB in 2006–31290.29 billion RMB in
2020, an increase of 239.2% over 2006. Gov had resulted in the emis­
sions of SO2, NOx, TSP, VOCs and GHG increasing by 50.7% (3308.0 kt),
108.2% (1367.4 kt), 56.3% (2966.5 kt), 137.9% (80.0 kt), and 147.5%
(8.4 × 105 kt CO2e), respectively.
Contrary to the economic effect, the coal consumption structure of
industrial boilers (s) was the main factor that neutralized the increase
and led to the reduction of NOx, VOCs and GHG emissions, and
decreased from 22.2% in 2006 to 5.9% in 2020, which led to the
reduction of NOx, VOCs and GHG emissions by 1480.0 kt (− 117.1%),
86.5 kt (− 149.3%) and 9.1 × 105 kt CO2e (− 159.7%). The reduction rate
of energy intensity (e) was lower than the proportion of coal con­
sumption (s), so the impact on NOx, GHG and VOCs emissions was less
than the coal consumption structure. The energy intensity decreased
from 2.6 t 10− 4 RMB in 2006 to 1.2 t 10− 4 RMB in 2020, a decrease of
51.7%, resulting in a decrease of 814.4 kt (− 64.4%), 47.6 kt (− 82.1%)
and 5.0 × 105 kt CO2e (− 87.9%) in NOX, VOCs and GHG emissions,
K. Cheng et al.
Fig. 3. Provincial air pollutant and GHG emissions from CFIB in 2020.
respectively.
As for SO2 and TSP, the control technology level (β) is the main
driving force for the reduction, because of the early start and rapid
development of de-sulfurization and de-dust technology. SO2 and TSP
control efficiency in 2020 increased by 440.5% and 23.8% over 2006
respectively, resulting in the reduction of SO2 and TSP emissions by
4278.6 kt (− 65.6%) and 3337.3 kt (− 63.3%) respectively. Pollution
production coefficient (f) (i.e. capacity and boiler type) has less impact
on pollutant emissions, it’s necessary to control air pollutants of in­
dustrial boilers around control technology, coal consumption intensity
and coal consumption structure in the future. Improving control tech­
nology, reducing coal consumption and strengthening the implementa­
tion of coal control policies such as “increasing gas and reducing coal”
should be taken in the future.
The abnormal changes in driving factors from 2011 to 2012 and from
2015 to 2016 can be explained by such policies issued by the govern­
ment in the years of 2010, 2011, and 2015. The “Guideline on Promoting
6
Journal of Cleaner Production 430 (2023) 139768
Joint Prevention and Control of Air Pollution to Improve Regional Air
Quality” released by the Chinese State Council in 2010, which proposed
strictly control the emission of coal-fired pollutants and the construction
of coal-fired projects in key regions. In 2011, the Chinese government
proposed the “12th Five-Year Plan” and “Comprehensive Work Plan for
Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction during the 12th Five-Year
Plan”, which aimed to reduce the proportion of coal consumption and
control the total amount of energy consumption. Under this situation,
air pollutants from CFIB begin to decline. Since 2015, driven by the
“13th Five-Year Plan” and ultra-low emission policies, large amount of
coal-fired industrial boilers with small capacity and high pollution have
been directly shut down, and the elimination rate of inefficient control
technologies has accelerated, resulting in the sharp declining in
pollutant emissions. In recent years, the upward trend has been in a
negative state, indicating that the emissions of pollutants have been
continuously decreasing.
K. Cheng et al.
Fig. 4. The variation trend of various factor value over the years.
3.4. Future emission projection
The main parameters affecting the pollutant emissions of CFIB
include boiler capacity, fuel consumption and control technology level.
According to the requirements for industrial boiler capacity in the key
points of national air pollution prevention and control in 2019 (MEE,
2019), it was assumed that the CFIB below 65 t h− 1 in key areas and
below 35 t h− 1 in non-key areas will be basically eliminated in 2025. As
gas industrial boilers have almost no SO2 and TSP emissions, the emis­
sion level of which can basically meet the emission standards, NOx
emission from gas-fired boilers is mainly controlled. It is assumed that
the NOX concentration of gas boilers in 2025 and 2030 is lower than 80
mg m− 3 and 30 mg m− 3 respectively. In the “13th Five-Year Plan” and
“Three-Year Action Plan”, the total coal consumption reduction targets
of Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong and Henan provinces are set to
improve air quality. It was required to reduce by 10% until 2020
compared with that of 2015 and key areas needed to achieve “gas in­
crease and coal reduction".
The action plan of reaching the carbon peak by 2030 (SCC, 2021)
issued in 2021 required that the industrial structure and energy struc­
ture were adjusted and the growth of coal consumption was strictly
controlled during the period of 2021–2030. As GHG and carbon emis­
sions are highly affected by the energy consumption structure, it is
speculated that in the “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality” back­
ground, China will still substantially control the coal consumption of
industrial boilers and further carry out energy substitution in the future.
The projection of energy consumption in the future is completely
according to the existing policies under the three scenarios of BAU, IPC-
7
Journal of Cleaner Production 430 (2023) 139768
1, and IPC-2. In the BAU scenario, restricted by natural gas pipeline,
conversion cost and other factors, we assume that the coal consumption
in 2025 and 2030 will be reduced by 10% and 20% respectively
compared with that in 2020 according to policy requirements. As the
emission level of air pollutants remained unchanged, the decline of air
pollutants emissions is consistent with that of coal consumption, and the
emissions of TSP, SO2, NOx, VOCs and GHG in 2030 will be reduced by
19.9%, 20.0%, 12.8%, 11.5% and 5.9% respectively based on those of
2020.
In the IPC-1 scenario, we assume that the key areas will complete the
ultra-low emission transformation by 2025, and the inefficient control
devices will be eliminated. The de-dust countermeasures in non-key
areas in 2025 will be mainly FFs, and a few will be WET and EFs. De-
sulfurization and de-nitration facilities will be installed in all coal-
fired boilers, mainly including wet de-sulfurization and SCR and SNCR
de-nitration. In 2030, the control technology will be further upgraded,
the de-dust devices will be mainly FFs and EFs, WET will be gradually
eliminated, and the de-nitration facilities will be mainly SCR, a few will
use SNCR, and the installation ratio of LNBs burners will be constantly
increased. In this scenario, it is estimated that the comprehensive
removal efficiency of TSP, SO2, NOx and VOCs in 2030 will increase by
5.8%, 12.1%, 139.9% and 1893.7% respectively over 2020. And the
corresponding pollutant emissions will decrease by 90.7%, 65.6%,
59.6% and 49.7%, respectively.
The emission limits of IPC-2 scenario are assumed to be stricter than
IPC-1 scenario. In IPC-2 scenario, we assume that the non-key areas will
complete the ultra-low emission transformation in 2030, and the control
technology level in 2025 will be comparable to that of Beijing Tianjin
K. Cheng et al.
Fig. 5. Contribution of each driving factor to air pollutants and GHG emission.
Note: SO2 (a); NOX (b); TSP (c); GHG (d); VOCs (e); contribution rate of various driving factors to the variation of total pollutant emissions from 2006 to 2020 (f).
Hebei region in 2020. Furthermore, the key areas will reach the best
control technology level in 2030. According to studies, the average
removal efficiencies of TSP, SO2 and NOX with ultra-low emission
technical route are 99.5%, 95.9% and 81.0% respectively (Yue et al.,
2020), and VOCs removal efficiency is not less than 80.0% (Liu et al.,
2020). In this scenario, emissions of TSP, SO2, NOX and VOCs in 2030
will be reduced by 94.9%, 81.6%, 71.6% and 62.6% over 2020.
Compared with NOx and VOCs, the emission reduction benefits of TSP
and SO2 in IPC-1 scenario are close to that of IPC-2, and the emission
reduction rate will significantly slow down after 2025, which is mainly
related to the near saturation of control technology level. Therefore,
more efficient pollutant control technologies need to be developed in the
future. In general, the emission reduction effect brought by improving
the control technology level is higher than the substitution of coal to gas.
NOx control technology has a large improvement space and will be the
main development object in the future. The projection results of 2025
and 2030 emissions in the three scenarios are shown in Fig. 6.
3.5. Comparison with other studies and uncertainty analysis
The uncertainty of air pollutant emission factors mainly comes from
the application of CFIB types, the value of pollution production coeffi­
cient, the proportion of control technology and the removal efficiency of
8
Journal of Cleaner Production 430 (2023) 139768
APCDs. The uncertainty of VOCs emission factors comes from the
collaborative treatment efficiency of APCDs for VOCs. VOCs collabora­
tive removal efficiency in this paper is based on the data collected at
present study, most of which are the testing data of coal-fired power
plants, therein has a certain uncertainty.
The uncertainty of emission estimation mainly comes from coal
consumption and emission factors of industrial boilers of different
calculation methods. In order to better understand the removal effi­
ciency and emission factor of the pollution control facilities selected in
this paper, the data selected in this paper are compared with other
literature data. There are certain differences between the emission fac­
tors and the removal efficiency of APCDs as shown in Table S6 and
Fig. S5. Compared with the existing studies (Table S6), Xue et al.
(2016a) analyzed the emission characteristics of Beijing coal-fired
boilers from 2007 to 2013 through the measured emission factors. The
results showed that the emissions of SO2, NOx and VOCs in 2013 were
26615 t, 22965 t and 1406 t respectively, which were 90.6–449.1 times
higher than this study. The main reason was caused by the stricter
emission limits, elimination of low-capacity boilers, the substitution of
coal to gas, coal control policy of Beijing, and the transformation of
ultra-low emission. Such policies can significantly reduce pollutant
emissions.
The TSP and SO2 emissions estimated in this study in 2011 were
K. Cheng et al. Journal of Cleaner Production 430 (2023) 139768

Fig. 6. Emissions projection of 2025 and 2030 in three scenarios.

lower than those estimated by Yue (2019), but higher than those found Carlo model is applied to quantify the uncertainty of emission estima­
by Explanation for the Compilation of Boiler Air Pollutant Emission tion. The uncertainty distribution of air pollutants and GHG emissions of
Standard (MEP, 2013). The SO2 and NOx emissions were generally coal-fired industrial boilers from 2006 to 2020 is shown in Table 3.
comparable to the results of the two studies, which may be because of Under the 95% confidence interval, the uncertainty of TSP is higher,
different data selections such as emission factors and removal efficiency with the average uncertainty ranges of (− 56.8%–67.0%), and the un­
of pollution control facilities. Tong et al. (2021) estimated the emissions certainty of GHG and VOCs are relatively low, with the average uncer­
of TSP and SO2 of industrial boilers based on environmental statistics, tainty range of (− 21.9%–23.4%) and (− 25.8%–28.5%), respectively.
the result was lower than those of this study, while NOX emissions were
higher. The reason may be that the coal consumption data of environ­ 4. Conclusions
mental statistics were incomplete, and the uncertainty of relevant ac­
tivity data (such as pollutant control technology level and coal Based on the emission factors and detailed activity level data, the
consumption calculation parameters) led to the differences. Li et al. “bottom-up” emission factor method is used to compile the emission
(2017) calculated the GHG emissions by sectors in Beijing in 2014, and
obtained that the GHG emissions from coal-fired industries were 4.4 ×
Table 3
103 kt, much higher than the emissions from CFIB in Beijing in 2019 of
Uncertainty distribution of air pollutants and GHG emissions
this study. The main reasons include: (1) the industries may include
from CFIB.
kilns and coal-fired power plants in addition to industrial boilers in the
Pollutant types Uncertainty interval
study of Li et al. (2017); (2) Beijing government had implemented a
series of control measures to limit coal consumption, such as the pro­ GHG (− 21.9%–23.4%)
hibition of new coal-fired projects. On the whole, the results of this study VOCs (− 25.8%–28.5%)
SO2 (− 30.3%–36.1%)
were consistent with previous studies. NOX (− 20.5%–21.1%)
In order to better understand the uncertainty of this study, the Monte TSP (− 56.8%–67.0%)

9
K. Cheng et al.
inventory of air pollutants and GHG from CFIB, and the LMDI model is
applied to analyze the driving forces. The emissions of air pollutants
from CFIB are unevenly distributed and are widely distributed in regions
with high coal consumption and backward control technology. In
addition, the content of sulfur and ash in coal also play important roles.
The positive impact of the coal consumption structure of CFIB on GHG,
NOx and VOCs emission reduction from 2006 to 2020 is significantly
higher than that of control technology. However, the impact of control
technology still has a great potential on the emission reduction of NOx
and VOCs.
The “14th Five-Year Plan” will be the very critical period to achieve
the target of “carbon peak”. For industrial boilers, firstly, the govern­
ment should speed up the adjustment of energy structure and the
establishment of low-carbon energy system. At present, the removal
efficiency of APCDs on SO2 and NOX is generally low, it is necessary to
optimize the terminal treatment facilities, eliminate inefficient equip­
ment, and actively develop cleaner and more efficient pollution control
facilities in the future. In addition, it is suggested that while focusing on
the management of key areas, we should also take into account the
pollution control management of non-key areas and improve the emis­
sion standards of non-key areas. In the future, in order to improve the
calculation accuracy of VOCs emissions from CFIB, it’s also necessary to
strengthen the research on the collaborative efficiency of APCDs on
VOCs. As a non-independent industrial sector, although it yet has no
specialized GHG control devices to be applied in coal-fired industrial
boilers in the near future, such energy saving technologies still should be
applied to achieve the GHG emission reduction, which include boiler
technical transformation, strengthening boiler operation management,
and emphasizing the coordination between boilers and coal preparation
etc.
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Ke Cheng: Investigation, Conceptualization, Supervision, Funding
acquisition, Writing – review & editing. Xinyue Zhou: Methodology,
Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Writing – original draft. Yan Wang:
Methodology, Visualization, Validation, Writing – original draft. Jingyu
Li: Methodology, Conceptualization, Data curation, Writing – original
draft. Yu Shangguan: Writing – review & editing. Huanjia Liu: Inves­
tigation, Supervision. Jishao Jiang: Writing – review & editing. Peng
Yi: Investigation, Supervision.
Declaration of competing interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
the work reported in this paper.
Data availability
Data will be made available on request.
Acknowledgements
This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation
of China (No. 22376054, 21507024 and 21407122), the General
Financial Grant from the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (No.
2015M580631), the General Financial Grant from Henan Postdoctoral
Research Sponsorship (No. 2015074 and No. 2015077) and the Key
Project of Science and Technology of Henan Province (No.
232102320120). The authors wish to thank the editors and the anony­
mous reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions on our
paper.
10
Journal of Cleaner Production 430 (2023) 139768
Appendix A. Supplementary data
Supplementary data to this article can be found online at https://doi.
org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.139768.
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