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You are probably already familiar with the problem of climate change, both as a social and political
issue affecting humanity and as a scientific problem in the physical world. However, it has taken a
number of decades of research and debate to reach a scientific consensus about what climate change
is and how it operates, as the following abstract from a recent paper states.
GREATER THAN 99% CONSENSUS ON HUMAN CAUSED CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE PEER-REVIEWED
SCIENTIFIC LITERATURE
While controls over the Earth's climate system have undergone rigorous (1) [putting theory into
practice:] ________________________ since the 1800s, questions over the scientific
(2) [general agreement:] _______________ of the role of human activities in modern climate change
continue to arise in public settings. We (3) [make more recent:] _________ previous efforts to (4) [to
measure:] __________ the scientific consensus on climate change by searching the recent literature
for (5) [research articles:] __________ sceptical of anthropogenic-caused global warming. From a (6)
[selection of information:] _________ of 88,125 climate-related papers published since 2012, when
this question was last addressed comprehensively, we (7) [to study in depth:] ___________ a
randomized subset of 3000 such publications. We also use a second sample-weighted approach that
was specifically (8) [looking at only one angle:] ________ with keywords to help identify any sceptical
(9) [academically quality-controlled:] __________________ papers in the whole dataset. We identify
four sceptical papers out of the subset of 3000, as (10) [judged on the basis of:] _________________
by abstracts that were rated as implicitly or explicitly sceptical of human-caused global warming. In
our sample utilizing pre-identified sceptical (11) [defining words:] _____________ we found 28 papers
that were implicitly or explicitly (12) [unconvinced by the evidence:] _____________ . We conclude
with high statistical (13) [relative certainty:] ________________ that the scientific consensus on
human-caused contemporary climate change—expressed as a proportion of the total (14) [all
published research:] _______________ —exceeds 99% in the peer-reviewed scientific (15) [body of
published knowledge:] ____________________ .
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2966
ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION
A stratigraphic case has been made for a planetary-scale Anthropocene time interval at epoch rank,
one that would end the Holocene Epoch at ~1950 C.E (Waters et al. 2016). Conceptually, the transition
reflects a change from human drivers of environmental change having gradually increasing significance
and mostly regionally expressed, to becoming overwhelming and global in extent. But what
quantifiable metrics enable direct comparison between the Anthropocene and the preceding
Holocene? As a unit of the international Geological Time Scale, the Quaternary Period (Gibbard & Head
2010; Gibbard, Head & Walker 2010) formally partitions into Pleistocene (2.58 My to 11.7 ky) and
Holocene (11.7 ky to present) epochs (Head 2019). The Holocene, which follows the end of the last
cold episode with the rapid northward movement of the oceanic polar front, is formally subdivided by
the International Commission on Stratigraphy (ICS) into three ages (Walker et al. 2018; Walker et al.
2019): Greenlandian (11.7 to 8.2 ky), Northgrippian (8.2 to 4.3 ky), and Meghalayan (4.3 to 0 ky).
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Here, we trace the human footprint through each Holocene age, with focus on two historical and
informal intervals: Pre-Industrial (1670–1850 CE) and Industrial (1850–1950 CE), within the
Meghalayan Age. The Anthropocene as a potential epoch (Zalasiewicz et al. 2017; Zalasiewicz et al.
2019) is first compared to these earlier Holocene ages, using the human population and its energy
consumption and economic productivity, and then assessed by evaluating how human action has
disturbed the landscape, altered river discharge (water, particulate and dissolved constituents), and
has shifted climate, biogeochemical cycles, biodiversity, and other parts of the Earth System. These
changes have already resulted in a sharp distinction in the stratigraphic record between the Holocene
and Anthropocene (Waters et al. 2016; Zalasiewicz et al. 2017; Zalasiewicz et al. 2019). This study
formulates a consistent quantitative approach evaluating key Earth-surface parameters and their
human drivers to validate the contention that the Anthropocene is an epoch-level planetary interval
in Earth’s history, comparable to or exceeding in planetary impact the Holocene Epoch, and greatly
exceeding component Holocene ages.
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During the Northgrippian Age (8.2 to 4.3 ky), global mean sea level rose another ~14.5 m, mostly in the
first 1500-y, as the great Northern Hemisphere ice sheets largely had disappeared by 7000-y ago
(Lambeck et al. 2014; Clark et al. 2016). The Age-averaged rate of global mean sea-level rise was
~3.6 mm/y (Table 1). Global climate was relatively stable at a temperature plateau until 5.48 ky, when
the planet cooled ~−0.2 °C, but with regional exceptions (Marcott et al. 2013). The trend in
atmospheric CO2 and CH4 concentrations changed from slightly falling to slightly rising, at ~8 ky and ~5
ky respectively. Although some have argued that this increase reflected deforestation in response to
expanding agriculture, in particular rice cultivation in the case of methane (Ruddiman 2013), others
suggest that the rise reflects the gradual adjustment of ocean chemistry towards an equilibrium state
following deglaciation (Broecker et al. 1999). Some humans, still a minority at the end of the
Northgrippian Age, organized into structured agrarian societies. Once sea level stabilized, the human
population grew to 27 M (0.03%/y), as urban centers and ports developed (Fig. 1a, Table 1) and the
earliest state-level societies originated (Mesopotamia at 3700 BCE, Egypt at 3300 BCE, Peru 3000 BCE,
Indus Valley at 2500 BCE, Mesoamerica 1900 BCE, and Yellow River 1700 BCE) (Day et al. 2012; Gunn
et al. 2019).
Energy sources included wood burning, human and animal muscle, with the per capita energy
consumption at 7.1 GJ/y, ranging from 6.5 to 7.8 GJ/y (Fig. 1b, Table 1). Humans expended 0.34 ZJ
across the Northgrippian Age, a 332% increase from the Greenlandian, reflecting an increased human
population. Human productivity remained low (Fig. 1c, Table 1). The anthropogenic footprint included
regional soil erosion from deforestation, a proliferation of pastureland, and some mining (Ellis et al.
2013; ArchaeoGLOBE Project 2019). Extinction of large terrestrial mammals correlates with climate
change (Graham et al. 2016), though some extinctions have been linked to human actions (Steadman
et al. 2005).
The Meghalayan Age, as represented here, is the recent ~4.2-ky interval (to ~1950 CE), when global
mean sea level rose 1.0 to 1.5 m, or ~0.3 mm/y (Lambeck et al. 2014), as the global climate cooled
~−0.5 °C (Marcott et al. 2013), in what is referred to as Neoglaciation (Denton & Porter 1970).
Insolation decreased, and there were slight rises in atmospheric CO2 and CH4 concentrations
(Ruddiman et al. 2016). Human populations increased by an average 0.2%/y, reaching a population of
2500 M by 1950 CE (Fig. 1a, Table 1). Apparently related to sea-level stabilization, biological
productivity on the coastal margin increased dramatically and likely initiated the further movement to
large empire level organization in human society facilitating greater demand for goods, increased trade
and complex urbanization (Day et al. 2012; Gunn et al. 2019; Kennett & Kennett 2006).
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Large-scale water diversion schemes were built, and extensive farming practices increased (Ellis et al.
2013; Jenny et al. 2019). Coal became a common energy supply in the 19th century (Malanima 2014).
Per capita energy consumption averaged 8.3 GJ/y, ranging from 7.8 to 40 GJ/y, with humans expending
14.2 ZJ across the Meghalayan Age, a 24-fold increase over the Northgrippian Age (Fig. 1b, Table 1).
Per capita GDP averaged $144/y (Fig. 1c, Table 1). Humans transferred plant and animal species
beyond their native ranges, exemplified by the spread of chickens (Bennett et al. 2018), maize
(Williams et al. 2018) and Pacific rats (Matisoo et al. 1998). Human impacts produced extensive
regional losses (Bomgardner 1992) and widespread extinctions of land vertebrates (Ceballos et al.
2015), including the ancestors of domesticated cattle in Eurasia (Mona et al. 2010) and flightless birds
in the Pacific (Allentoft et al. 2014). Introductions and extinctions left a distinctive archeological and
fossil signal (Burney et al. 2001; Rijsdijk et al. 2009; Crowther et al. 2016).
Table 1 Average values of key human and environmental drivers for each studied time interval.
Geological Unit Greenlandian Age Northgrippian Age Meghalayan Age Pre-industrial Interval Industrial interval Anthropocene
(informal) (informal) (proposed Epoch)
Primary energy source Wood & human muscle Wood & increasingly Wood, muscle, coal in Wood, muscle, whale Coal, oil, hydroelectric Coal, oil, gas, nuclear,
animal muscle cities oil, coal, streams renewables
Generalized human Primitive Agrarian Organized Agrarian Advanced Agrarian Empires, Nations, City Nations & Empires UN
narrative Societies Societies Societies States
Human and environmental drivers across the IUGS/ICS-approved Holocene ages, along with values for two informal intervals occurring in the last 280 years of the ~11,700-y
Holocene history, and the proposed Anthropocene Epoch starting in this paper at 1950 CE. All values shown are interval averages.
ABSTRACT
Growth ….. fundamental drivers—energy use, economic productivity and population—can provide
……………………………….. indications of the proposed boundary between the Holocene Epoch and the
…………………………. that across the prior 11,700 years of the Holocene (~14.6 ZJ), largely through
combustion of fossil fuels. The global warming ………………… during the Anthropocene is more than an
order of magnitude …………………….. still. Global human population, their productivity and energy
consumption, and most changes …………………….. the global environment, are ……………………. correlated.
the Earth System has ………………………… from its Holocene state since ~1950 CE, forcing …………………..
physical, chemical and biological …………………………… to the Earth’s stratigraphic record that can be used
The Greenlandian Age (11.7 to 8.2 ky) constitutes the first 3464-y of the Holocene, …………………….. by
Milankovitch warming of ~+0.5 °C (Marcott et al. 2013), during which the Inter-Tropical Convergence
Zone …………………… northward (Ruddiman 2013) and Northern Hemisphere ice sheets ablated.
Atmospheric CO2 and CH4 concentrations …………………………. a trend of ………………………… initiated in the
latest Pleistocene and …………………………. ~10 ky (Monnin et al. 2001). Coastal human populations
…………………………. inland from initial settlements (Turney & Brown 2007), especially on deltas (Stanley
& Warne 1994), as global mean sea level ……………… ~48.5 m, at a rate of ~15 mm/y between 11.4 ky
and 8.2 ky (Lambeck et al. 2014). Human population was sparse and …………………………. ~4 M to 8 M
(Fig. 1a), ………………………………. 0.01%/y (Table 1). Regional extinctions of large terrestrial mammals
(e.g., ground sloths in North and South America) …………………………………….. the arrival of humans
(Steadman et al. 2005). Humans lived as foragers, fishers, or hunters, but in ……………. locations began
to cultivate domesticated food crops (Barker 2006). Energy sources were wood-burning and human
muscle, and ……………………………… , animal muscle, with an …………………………. per capita energy
consumption of 6.2 GJ/y, ……………………………….. 5.8 to 6.5 GJ/y (Fig. 1b, Table 1). The human population
during the Greenlandian consumed 0.12 zetajoules of energy (with 1 ZJ = 1021 J). Global productivity is
used here ……………………………………………. output per unit of input, such as labor, capital or any other
resource …………………………… the global economy (GDP per capita per unit time), and
………………………………………. at all for the Greenlandian, was ……………………... (Fig. 1c, Table 1).
During the Northgrippian Age (8.2 to 4.3 ky), global ………………… sea level rose another ~14.5 m, mostly
in the first 1500-y, as the great Northern Hemisphere ice sheets ………………………………………. by 7000-y
ago (Lambeck et al. 2014; Clark et al. 2016). The Age-averaged rate of global mean sea-level rise was
~3.6 mm/y (Table 1). Global climate was ………………………………… at a ………………………………………. until
5.48 ky, when the planet cooled ~−0.2 °C, but with regional exceptions (Marcott et al. 2013).
………………………………………. atmospheric CO2 and CH4 concentrations changed from slightly falling
………………………………………. , at ~8 ky and ~5 ky respectively. Although some have argued that this
increase reflected deforestation ………………………………………. agriculture, in particular rice cultivation in
the case of methane (Ruddiman 2013), others suggest that the rise reflects the
………………………………………. of ocean chemistry ……………………………………………………………. following
deglaciation (Broecker et al. 1999). Some humans, still a minority …………………………… the Northgrippian
Age, organized into structured agrarian societies. Once sea level …….……………………… , the human
population ……………………… 27 M (0.03%/y), as urban centers and ports developed (Fig. 1a, Table 1) and
the earliest state-level societies ………………………… (Mesopotamia at 3700 BCE, Egypt at 3300 BCE, Peru
3000 BCE, Indus Valley at 2500 BCE, Mesoamerica 1900 BCE, and Yellow River 1700 BCE) (Day et al.
2012; Gunn et al. 2019).
Energy sources included wood burning, human and animal muscle, with the per capita energy
……………………………….. 7.1 GJ/y, ranging from 6.5 to 7.8 GJ/y (Fig. 1b, Table 1). Humans expended 0.34
ZJ ………………… the Northgrippian Age, a 332% ………………………… the Greenlandian, reflecting an
increased human population. Human productivity ………………………………. (Fig. 1c, Table 1). The
anthropogenic footprint included regional soil erosion from deforestation, a ………………………………………
pastureland, and some mining (Ellis et al. 2013; ArchaeoGLOBE Project 2019). Extinction of large
terrestrial mammals correlates with climate change (Graham et al. 2016), though some extinctions
…………………………………………………. human actions (Steadman et al. 2005).
To tackle Climate Change various scientific advances and new technologies in the field of prevention
are sorely needed, but here we will limit our focus to various engineering techniques and proposals to
mitigate the effects of climate change alone.
In this module we will describe, analyse and evaluate the following three categories of large-scale
techniques and technologies which are commonly and collectively termed geoengineering:
• Solar Radiation Management (SRM)
• Negative Emissions Technologies (NET), including:
o Bioenergy with Carbon Capture & Storage (BECCS)
o Enhanced Rock Weathering (ERW)
o Direct Air Capture (DAC)
• Geoengineering ice sheets, glaciers, lakes & oceans
In this module the first two of these categories of solutions will be presented:
• SRM by listening to a podcast with related vocabulary-related exercises
• NETs by reading through several extracts from recent articles and papers summarising this
wide range of technologies
These solutions along with the third category – Geoengineering – will form the basis of class
discussions in Module 3 when additional sources will open the discussion further as we seek to answer
the question: is geoengineering a possible, feasible and desirable way to mitigate the effects of
Climate Change and which of these techniques would be most effective?
1. Exactly when (day and full date) did the twentieth century’s second-largest volcanic eruption take
place at Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines? (2)
2. Describe this eruption’s main effects on, and outcome for, the Earth’s climate. (3)
5. The net effect of which two opposing impacts on farming did Jon Proctor and his team of
researchers set out to study? (2)
6. In general terms, how does Proctor’s research differ from previous studies in this field? (2)
7. Specifically, which three variables did the study focus on? (3)
8. Outline the main findings regarding the net effect of these techniques on agriculture. (3)
9. In basic terms, what does Jon Proctor use the metaphor of geoengineering as “experimental
surgery” to explain? (1)
10. State the simple question environmental scientist Alan Robock believes is “probably the most
important impact” of global warming that needs to be studied. (1)
11. In his view, what are the main limitations of Proctor’s study? (3)
12. Using his surgical metaphor, what overall conclusion does Proctor reach about whether or not
solar geoengineering should be abandoned as a way to mitigate climate change? (2)
7. The Earth cooled _____ about half a degree Celsius, that’s because more sunlight
___________________________ bounced into space.
9. John looked at how crop yields ______________ within individual countries _____ levels of
sulphate aerosols varied overhead _____ the years ________ and ________ eruptions.
10. He points out that farming techniques will continue to change _____________ the coming
decades, potentially __________________ how crops respond _____ the effects of aerosols.
Modality is important in showing whether or not you agree with information or evidence that you have
come across in your research. It is used to convey meanings to do with un/certainty, im/possibility,
obligation, supposition, and im/probability.
WHY MODALITY?
Absolute statements which are not modalised are easy to challenge and for this reason they should be
avoided in academic settings: they all too easily give the impression that you are unwilling to accept
the possibility of other interpretations of the material read or that you only read those materials
supporting your ideas and are unaware of the existence of other research. Modalised statements, on
the other hand, are more difficult to challenge.
There is a range of items to express modality in English: modal auxiliaries (e.g. can, should, will, must),
verbs (e.g. want to, appear to, tend to), adverbs (e.g. certainly, usually), adjectives (e.g. potential,
likely) and nouns (e.g. necessity, requirement). When you are choosing from a range of modal
possibilities, you are choosing to make statements along the spectrum from absolute positive to
absolute negative and, in between these two extremes, you can express degrees of certainty, doubt,
usuality, obligation and necessity. You may find it useful to think about modality in terms of high,
medium and low, as shown in the table below.
1. The idea is that this technique __________ be used to offset some of the warming
__________________ carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.
2. Now, ________________ , some researchers are asking whether we ________________ one day
mimic volcanoes like Pinatubo to cool the globe.
3. And _________ researchers are confident that this ____________________ the globe, many other
_______________ are less certain.
5. One of the ____________ of global warming – _______________ the most important one – is how
it _______________________ our food supply.
7. And _______________ his study suggests that dimming sunlight _____________ cancel out any
__________________ to agriculture from cooling, he believes that it’s not time to stop…
8. There ______ be many good reason reasons to __________________ pursue such a strategy,
______________ some costs.
Two primary technology types are implemented in contemporary economic models of climate change
mitigation to limit climate system warming from anthropogenic gases. First, there are technologies
that reduce CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions from the energy supply by replacing carbon-
emitting fuels with low or no-carbon alternatives (referred to as decarbonization technologies
hereafter). Second, there are technologies that capture and sequester CO2 already in the atmosphere
There exists a large portfolio of decarbonization technologies, including renewable energy generation
(such as wind and solar power), nuclear power and fossil fuel power with carbon capture and storage.
While there are engineering and cost-effectiveness challenges associated with decarbonization
technologies, there is also a long history of development and significant present-day deployment of
some decarbonizing technologies. Pathways for implementation have been extensively explored in the
academic literature and policy arena (Loftus et al. 2015).
Negative emissions technologies are associated with a distinct set of uncertainties, including remaining
largely untested at scale (Fuss et al. 2014). Integrated assessments of climate policy typically only
consider bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) – which is both a decarbonization and
negative emissions technology— and land use change (e.g., reforestation) as possible negative
emissions sources (Clarke et al. 2014; Azar, Johansson & Mattsson 2013). While there are proposed
alternative approaches for capturing CO2 from the air (for example, direct air capture or enhanced
weathering), all are associated with comparatively large engineering and economic uncertainties
(Board et al. 2015). In the case of BECCS and other biological or biogeochemical approaches to
capturing carbon, there exist uncertain, but hard, biophysical limits on the maximum deployment of
negative emissions such as land and water availability (Smith et al. 2016), as well as considerable
uncertainty on future policy commitment to development and deployment (Anderson & Peters 2016).
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In December 2015, the global community affirmed a goal of ‘holding the increase in global average
temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit temperature
increases to 1.5 °C’ (UNFCCC 2015). Limiting warming to 1.5 degrees in 2100 will require very rapid
transformation of the energy system over the rest of the century (Rogelj et al. 2015) and even many
mitigation scenarios that aim to restrict temperatures to 2 °C or less require substantial deployments
of negative emissions technologies (Fuss et al. 2014). However, it is currently unknown whether
decarbonization and negative emissions technologies can be deployed quickly enough, and on
sufficient scale, to avoid exceeding 1.5 °C peak warming. Thus an “overshoot” of 1.5 °C – that is, a
period of time in which the global temperature increase over pre-industrial exceeds a 1.5 °C warming
target—appears likely even under such ambitious mitigation scenarios.
[…] While the importance of negative emissions in overshoot scenarios is widely recognized (Tavoni &
Socolow 2013), the respective contributions of decarbonization and negative emissions in [various
temperature stabilization] scenarios are not explicit. This is due in part to the fact that BECCS – the
only significant long-term negative emissions technology deployed in these scenarios – both generates
energy that can displace fossil fuels (i.e., decarbonization) and sequesters atmospheric CO2 (i.e.,
negative emissions). Given the distinct uncertainties associated with deployment of negative emissions
technologies than decarbonization, this lack of technological attribution obscures straightforward
assessment of the constraints upon meeting specific temperature targets under specific timelines and
conditions (including overshoot).
In this paper, we explicitly decompose and decouple the CO2 emissions contributions of technologies
that solely decarbonize the energy system from those that generate negative emissions, and
characterize their relative contributions to the magnitude and duration of temperature target
overshoot. While the scenarios presented in the [IPCC Working Group 3] database are obviously not
an exhaustive representation of all potential future emissions trajectories, they do encompass a wide
range of economically-constrained technological and policy pathways. We therefore use multi-model
mean scenarios from the database as guideposts to parameterize the evolution of decarbonization and
negative emissions, extending them beyond 2100. We then examine the ranges of scenarios that result
in overshoot of 1.5 °C and 2 °C temperature targets. […] While agnostic about the particular
technologies deployed within either group, the decoupling of these two technology types reveals
implicit technology-associated constraints on limiting temperature target overshoot and how those
constraints may translate into climate risk assessment.
Ricke, K. L ., R. J. Millar & D. G. MacMartin. 2017. “Constraints on Global Temperature Target Overshoot”.
Sci Rep 7, 14743. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-14503-9
The Paris Agreement has set ambitious objectives to keep global warming well below 2 °C, and the
scientific debate has recently focused on the pursuit of 1.5 °C targets. Given the current level of CO2
emissions approaching 40 GtCO2/year and the delay of global mitigation efforts, large-scale removal
of CO2 from the atmosphere will likely be needed. Studies on Negative Emission Technologies (NETs),
also referred to as Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR), have been conducted for almost two decades, but
the topic has received more attention since the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) published in
2013.
Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) and afforestation are considered the most likely
options to realise negative emissions, and have been largely investigated in many Integrated
Assessment Modeling (IAM) studies. However, concerns about the sustainability of biological
strategies and competition with food, water use, and ecosystems have led to a focus on alternatives
to sequester carbon from the atmosphere. Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage (DACCS) is a
complementary technology; it can capture the CO2 produced by distributed sources, is modular and
does not have major water and land interactions, while competing for geological storage with other
carbon sequestration options. To date, only a few modeling exercises have included CDR measures
other than afforestation and BECCS, and never in an inter-model comparison.
DACCS captures CO2 from ambient air and subsequently stores it. Despite being at an early stage of
development, it is gaining increasing attention, with multiple companies developing designs at a
commercial scale. Compared to other sequestration options, capturing CO2 directly from the air
presents a number of advantages. Like other NETs, it can address distributed emissions, such as those
from transport, aviation and intensive industrial sectors, together accounting for almost 50% of total
emissions. Designs for DACCS plants are diverse, some of them being modular, which extends a
prospect of more rapid scaling. Most demand little land, although some might still require significant
although reduced water inputs. Their main drawback is the low concentration of carbon dioxide in
ambient air, meaning that a large amount of energy input is required.
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Two groups of technologies can be identified as most promising, from a technical and economic
perspective. The first (hereafter named as DAC1) is based on using water solutions containing
hydroxide sorbents with a strong affinity for CO2, such as sodium hydroxide, calcium hydroxide and
potassium hydroxide. The second (DAC2) uses amine materials bonded to a porous solid support. A
wider range of solid sorbents are being investigated (e.g. ionic membranes, zeolites, solid oxides), but
were not included in our analysis as they are still at the research stage. Hydroxide solutions require
high-temperature heat to be regenerated (T > 800 °C), which can be provided by burning natural gas,
while amine adsorbents require only approximately 85–120 °C, meaning that waste heat can be used.
While DAC1 is based on large scale plants, capturing 1 MtCO2/year, DAC2 has a modular design, that
might be suitable for mass production and potentially rapid cost reduction (see Methods). DAC1
technology is more mature. It employs equipment already developed and adopted in other sectors
(e.g. pulp and paper industry): the major expenditure is related to capital investment for building plant
facilities, with limited potential for future cost reduction. Conversely, for DAC2 the potential for design
and cost improvement is arguably higher, but issues regarding sorbent degradation may lead to high
operational expenditure. Currently there is huge uncertainty on DACCS economics, with estimates in
the literature ranging from 100 to 1000 $/tCO2, according to the different designs proposed and the
purity level of the captured CO2/year.
This paper investigates the role of DACCS as part of a diversified portfolio of mitigation strategies, so
as to inform policy-makers about its potential in low stabilization scenarios. We incorporate detailed
technical and economic characteristics of a range of DACCS technologies into two IAMs, using the latest
available estimates from the literature. […] We also explore the requirements in terms of resource use
and the consequences of DACCS failure on global temperature.
Results suggest that DACCS allows an easing of near-term mitigation, and can significantly reduce
climate policy costs. DACCS complements, rather than substitutes other negative emission
technologies. The key factor governing the role of DACCS compared to other mitigation and negative
emissions strategies is the rate at which DACCS capacity can be ramped up. Such a massive deployment
requires a major refocusing of the manufacturing and chemical industries for sorbent production, and
a large need for electricity and heat. […] Our results therefore show the considerable potential of
DACCS but also highlight a large number of challenges which commend caution and further scrutiny.
Realmonte, G., L. Drouet, A. Gambhir, et al. 2019. “An inter-model assessment of the role of direct air capture
in deep mitigation pathways.” Nat Commun 10, 3277. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10842-5
NB: Citations have been removed from the text above to save space. You can find all sources cited in full in the
original paper available on the same UV page as this content or online using the DOI provided above.
Enhanced silicate rock weathering (ERW), deployable with croplands, has potential use for
atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) removal (CDR), which is now necessary to mitigate anthropogenic
climate change (IPCC 2018). ERW also has possible co-benefits for improved food and soil security, and
reduced ocean acidification (Kantola et al. 2017; Zhang et al. 2018; Beerling et al. 2018). Here we use
an integrated performance modelling approach to make an initial techno-economic assessment for
2050, quantifying how CDR potential and costs vary among nations in relation to business-as-usual
energy policies and policies consistent with limiting future warming to 2 degrees Celsius (Mercure et
al. 2018). China, India, the USA and Brazil have great potential to help achieve average global CDR goals
of 0.5 to 2 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) per year with extraction costs of approximately US$80–
180 per tonne of CO2. These goals and costs are robust, regardless of future energy policies.
Deployment within existing croplands offers opportunities to align agriculture and climate policy.
However, success will depend upon overcoming political and social inertia to develop regulatory and
incentive frameworks. We discuss the challenges and opportunities of ERW deployment, including the
potential for excess industrial silicate materials (basalt mine overburden, concrete, and iron and steel
slag) to obviate the need for new mining, as well as uncertainties in soil weathering rates and land–
ocean transfer of weathered products.
Beerling, D. J ., E. P. Kantzas & M. R. Lomas. 2020. “Potential for large-scale CO2 removal via enhanced rock
weathering with croplands”. Nature 583, 242-248. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2448-9
SOURCE TEXT B
The Paris Agreement has ………. ambitious objectives to keep global warming well below 2 °C, and the
scientific debate has recently focused on the pursuit of 1.5 °C targets. …………………… the current level
of CO2 emissions approaching 40 GtCO2/year and the …………………… of global mitigation efforts, large-
scale removal of CO2 from the atmosphere will ………………… be needed. Studies on Negative Emission
Technologies (NETs), also …………………………… as Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR), have been
……………………………. for almost two decades, but the topic has received more attention since the IPCC’s
Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) ……………………………… in 2013.
SOURCE TEXT A
In December 2015, the global community affirmed …………………………… “holding the increase in global
average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to ……………………. efforts to
limit temperature increases to 1.5 °C”. ………………………… warming to 1.5 degrees in 2100 will require
very rapid transformation of the energy system over ……………………… the century and even many
mitigation scenarios that …………. to restrict temperatures to 2 °C or less require substantial
deployments of negative emissions technologies (Fuss et al. 2014). ……………………. , it is currently
unknown whether decarbonization and negative emissions technologies can be deployed quickly
enough, and on sufficient scale, to avoid ………………………….. 1.5 °C peak warming. Thus an “overshoot”
of 1.5 °C – …………………………….. a period of time in which the global temperature increase over pre-
industrial exceeds a 1.5 °C warming …………………….. — appears likely even under such ambitious
mitigation scenarios.
GENERAL USE
One common way to give effective structural coherence to a text is to use discourse markers, also
known as connectors and linking words, to link it to previous or subsequent ideas.
On the following page you can find a wide range of discourse markers along with an indicator of their
general meaning and function when used in a text. As you will see, there are a wide variety to choose
from, but consider the following points when using them:
• Some pertain primarily to oral discourse style, e.g. So,… , whereas others tend to be more
formal and reserved for written discourse, e.g. Moreover,…
• They should be used logically and consistently, e.g. Firstly,… followed by Secondly,… , etc.
• They should not be overused: when every sentence begins with a discourse marker, the text
can become repetitive and more difficult to read!
• Such repetition may be partly avoided by diversifying which ones you use and alternating
where you place them within your sentences.
Other discourse markers change form according to their position in the sentence, i.e. the idea is the
same, but syntax requires a variant structure.
Consider the following examples of discourse markers of comparison and contrast which differ
according to whether they are used at the beginning or end of a sentence (or less commonly, in the
middle of a sentence as an interjection) to refer to ideas in other sentences, or as phrases linking ideas
within a sentence:
• To begin a sentence or a clause:
By comparison,… / By way of comparison,… By contrast,… / By way of contrast,…
Conversely,… On the contrary,…
On (the) one hand,… On the other (hand),…
• To connect two elements or clauses within a sentence:
…in comparison to… … compared to/with… …in contrast to…
…whereas / while… …instead of… …rather than
LISTING
1. enumerative: first, second, third; firstly, secondly, finally; one, two, three; a, b, c
2. listing reasons: in the first place, in the second place; first of all; for one thing… and for
another thing; for a start; to begin with; to start with; then; next; to conclude; finally;
lastly; last; last of all
3. additive: (reinforcing) also; further; furthermore; moreover; in particular; what is more;
in addition; above all; indeed; (comparative) similarly; in a similar way; in the same way;
equally; likewise; better/worse (still).
SUMMARISING
1. summary: all together; overall; (all) in all; in sum; to sum up; to summarise
2. conclusions: to conclude; in conclusion; therefore; on balance
INDICATING RESULT
in this way; accordingly; consequently; hence; so ; therefore; thus; as a consequence; in
consequence; as a result; of course; it follows that
MAKING AN INFERENCE
otherwise; then; in other words; in that case; (or) else
INDICATING CONTRAST
1. reformulating: better; or rather; more accurately; more precisely; alternatively; in other
words; what I mean is
2. replacing: again; alternatively; rather; better; worse; on the other hand
3. contrasting: conversely; instead (of); on the contrary; in contrast to…; by contrast; by
way of contrast; in comparison to…; by comparison; by way of comparison; on the one
hand… on the other (hand); actually
4. correcting: on the contrary; contrary to
5. concessive: anyway; however; nevertheless; nonetheless; still; though; yet; in any case;
in any event; at any rate; in spite of that; all the same; admittedly; of course; whichever
(way it is)
INDICATING TRANSITION
1. in time: originally, subsequently; eventually; in the meantime; meanwhile; in the
meanwhile
2. in the discourse: by the way; incidentally; while we are on the subject; as an aside
SOURCE TEXT A
Two primary technology types are implemented in contemporary economic models of climate change
mitigation to limit climate system warming from anthropogenic gases. ……………….. , there are
technologies that reduce CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions from the energy supply by replacing
There exists a large portfolio of decarbonization technologies, including renewable energy generation
(…………………… wind and solar power), nuclear power and fossil fuel power with carbon capture and
storage. While there are engineering and cost-effectiveness challenges associated with
decarbonization technologies, there is ……………. a long history of development and significant present-
day deployment of some decarbonizing technologies. Pathways for implementation have been
extensively explored in the academic literature and policy arena.
Negative emissions technologies are associated with a distinct set of uncertainties, ……………………….
remaining largely untested at scale. Integrated assessments of climate policy typically only consider
bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) – which is ……………. a decarbonization and
negative emissions technology— and land use change (……. , reforestation) as possible negative
emissions sources. ………………… there are proposed alternative approaches for capturing CO2 from the
air (…………………………….. direct air capture or enhanced weathering), all are associated with
comparatively large engineering and economic uncertainties. …………………………………. BECCS and other
biological or biogeochemical approaches to capturing carbon, there exist uncertain, ……….. hard,
biophysical limits on the maximum deployment of negative emissions such as land and water
availability, …………………………… considerable uncertainty on future policy commitment to development
and deployment.
SOURCE TEXT B
Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) and afforestation are considered the most likely
options to realise negative emissions, and have been largely investigated in many Integrated
Assessment Modeling (IAM) studies. ……………………… concerns about the sustainability of biological
strategies and competition with food, water use, and ecosystems have led to a focus on alternatives
to sequester carbon from the atmosphere. Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage (DACCS) is a
complementary technology; it can capture the CO2 produced by distributed sources, is modular and
does not have major water and land interactions, ………………… competing for geological storage with
other carbon sequestration options. …………………… only a few modeling exercises have included CDR
measures ……………………… afforestation and BECCS, and never in an inter-model comparison.
DACCS captures CO2 from ambient air and ……………………… stores it. …………………… being at an early
stage of development, it is gaining increasing attention, with multiple companies developing designs
at a commercial scale. ……………………… other sequestration options, capturing CO2 directly from the air
presents a number of advantages. ……………………… NETs, it can address distributed emissions, such as
those from transport, aviation and intensive industrial sectors, ……………………… accounting for almost
50% of total emissions. Designs for DACCS plants are diverse, some of them being modular, which
extends a prospect of more rapid scaling. Most demand little land, ……………………… some might still
require significant although reduced water inputs. Their main drawback is the low concentration of
carbon dioxide in ambient air, ……………………………….. a large amount of energy input is required.
Two groups of technologies can be identified as most promising, from a technical and economic
perspective. ……………………… (hereafter named as DAC1) is based on using water solutions containing
hydroxide sorbents with a strong affinity for CO2, ……………………… sodium hydroxide, calcium hydroxide
and potassium hydroxide. ……………………… (DAC2) uses amine materials bonded to a porous solid
support. […] ………………… DAC1 is based on large scale plants, capturing 1 MtCO2/year, DAC2 has a
modular design, that might be suitable for mass production and potentially rapid cost reduction. DAC1
technology is more mature. […] ……………………… for DAC2 the potential for design and cost
improvement is arguably higher, but issues regarding sorbent degradation may lead to high
operational expenditure. ……………………… there is huge uncertainty on DACCS economics, with
estimates in the literature ranging from 100 to 1000 $/tCO2, ……………………… the different designs
proposed and the purity level of the captured CO2/year.
Enhanced silicate rock weathering (ERW), deployable …………….. croplands, has potential use ……………
atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) removal (CDR), which is now necessary to mitigate anthropogenic
climate change. ERW also has possible co-benefits …………… improved food and soil security, and
reduced ocean acidification. Here we use an integrated performance modelling approach to make an
initial techno-economic assessment ………….. 2050, quantifying how CDR potential and costs vary
…………………… nations ………………………………………. business-as-usual energy policies and policies
consistent …………….. limiting future warming to 2 degrees Celsius. China, India, the USA and Brazil have
great potential ………… help achieve average global CDR goals of 0.5 to 2 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide
(CO2) ………… year with extraction costs of approximately US$80–180 ………… tonne of CO2. These goals
and costs are robust, regardless …..… future energy policies. Deployment ……………………. existing
croplands offers opportunities to align agriculture and climate policy. However, success will depend
..……………… overcoming political and social inertia to develop regulatory and incentive frameworks.
We discuss the challenges and opportunities of ERW deployment, including the potential ..…………
excess industrial silicate materials (basalt mine overburden, concrete, and iron and steel slag) to
obviate the need …………… new mining, as well as uncertainties ………….. soil weathering rates and land–
ocean transfer ………… weathered products.
Paragraphs are the key to structuring the flow of ideas within your overall text. In the simplest terms,
one paragraph should contain one idea and should therefore be clearly and effectively linked to the
ideas in the previous and subsequent paragraphs (e.g. by using appropriate discourse markers).
• A paragraph is in many ways a microcosm of an essay. It should have the following structure:
1. A topic sentence that tells the reader what the paragraph is about: like the title of an essay.
2. Intermediate sentences that develop the topic in a logical order: like the body of an essay.
3. A concluding sentence, possibly referring back to the first sentence or forward to the next
paragraph: like the conclusion of an essay.
• Do not waffle: you invariably face word-count limits, so go direct to the point. DO NOT start with
a phrase like this: In this paragraph I'm going to...
• Move from the general to the specific. Each sentence should be immediately understood in light
of what came before.
• Avoid single-sentence paragraphs. Although theoretically possible, like very short sentences they
tend to be rather dramatic in style and are therefore generally inappropriate for neutral, objective
scientific discourse.
1. Furthermore, these countries often have highly-educated and well-trained people to carry out
the necessary research.
2. Developed countries are much richer so it is natural to think that they could handle a major part
of the costs of creating a sustainable future.
3. Indeed, producing non-polluting energy should really be one of their major concerns.
4. Thus, generally developed countries should carry the main responsibility to find sustainable
solutions for the future.
5. With their means they can afford to develop expensive green technology such as wind turbines
or geothermal power stations.
USING AFFIXES
One way of working out the meaning of an unfamiliar word is to look for clues in the structure of the
word – its morphology. Understanding the general rules and patterns of using affixes in English, for
instance, helps you to make connections between words classes and expand your vocabulary.
For example, we can break down the word uncertainty into its component parts:
Word Affix Effect Meaning
certain stem adjective sure
certainty suffix: +ty noun sureness
uncertain prefix: un- adjective (antonym) not sure
Affixes, prefixes, and suffixes can be very varied and unpredictable. Consider the following examples:
Word Affix Effect Meaning
ensure prefix: en- adjective → verb to make sure
soften suffix: -en adjective → verb to make soft
Using structure to find the meaning of a word only works with a minority of English words, so use this
method once you have tried various other ways of identifying an unfamiliar word. Furthermore, some
apparent prefixes are in fact part of the stem (or root) of the word: for example, restart vs. respect,
decarbonise vs. describe, flammable vs. inflammable vs. uninflammable.
The same principles can also be applied when forming new words – neologisms – to denote new
concepts and realities. One relevant example used in this unit is the word “decarbonization”:
Word Affix Word Class Meaning
carbon stem noun element C
carbon-ize/-ise + suffix verb to add carbon to
de-carbon-ize/-ise + prefix verb to remove carbon from
de-carbon-iz/-is-ation + suffix noun the process of removing carbon
Note spelling: in BrE, -ise (e.g. organise/organisation); in AmE, -ize (e.g. organize, organization).
See the handout on Affixes (Appendix D) for more on stems, prefixes and suffixes.
WORD FORMATION
Taking a broader view of morphology, the handout on Word Formation (Appendix E) categorises the
variety of ways English words have been derived from simpler structures. Some of these categories
have already been presented in previous units (e.g. compound words). The list includes:
• Simple (or stand-alone) words • Backformation
• Compound words • Clipping
• Complex words • Acronyms and abbreviations
• Conversion • Blending
Studying the principles of word formation will help you to find, create and adapt the wide variety of
specific terms you need to discuss complex and novel scientific concepts with clarity and concision.
International
Stratosphere
Undesirable
Add the correct prefix to make the antonym (a word with the opposite meaning).
Feasible => Plausible =>
The words below cannot be negated by simply adding a prefix of negation. What are their antonyms?
Difficult => Artificial =>
You should choose a technical or scientific term which has a variety of uses and forms and which you
may have struggled to understand or use prior to this exercise. Remember that you need not fill in all
of the information at the same time, but to add to your word card over time to include as much
information and as many examples as possible.
You could use words like program, beam, energy, work, force, sustainable, alternative, design, etc.
Each Study File presents one or several controversial proposals as possible solutions to climate
changed-related problem, so once again apply a problem-solution logic here:
• What are the various issues and problems identified?
• What are the solutions being proposed, and are they necessary, feasible and desirable?
In addition to the content you need to study for your selected case, you also need to use the UN’s
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to guide your thinking and discussions. You will be familiar
with the SDGs from the English I course, but you will find helpful content on the UV page to remind
you of the range of goals you should consider here.
Going beyond the specific case you are preparing – and looking back at the content in this Unit as a
whole – think about the following questions:
• In general terms, do you think that the problem of climate change is serious enough to warrant
the development of controversial geoengineering projects on a large scale?
• Which parameter – necessity, feasibility and desirability – is most important in your thinking?
• Which of the mitigation solutions presented in this Unit (SRM, NETs, Geoengineering) do you
think would be better to develop and apply to address this problem globally?
• How would you measure the success or failure of such geoengineering projects in the short and
long term?
The following words relate to content found in this unit. At home, study their meaning in English and
practise using them by integrating them into complete sentences.